Optimization of HAART with genetic algorithms and agent-based models of HIV infection

Optimizing Contact Network Topological Parameters of Urban Populations Using the Genetic Algorithm

This paper explores the application of complex network models and genetic algorithms in epidemiological modeling. By considering the small-world and Barabási-Albert network models, we aim to replicate the dynamics of disease spread in urban environments. This study emphasizes the importance of accurately mapping individual contacts and social networks to forecast disease progression. Using a genetic algorithm, we estimate the input parameters for network construction, thereby simulating disease transmission within these networks. Our results demonstrate the networks' resemblance to real social interactions, highlighting their potential in predicting disease spread. This study underscores the significance of complex network models and genetic algorithms in understanding and managing public health crises.

Assessing the impact of HIV treatment interruptions using stochastic cellular Automata

Chronic HIV infection causes a progressive decrease in the ability to maintain homeostasis resulting, after some time, in eventual break down of immune functions. Recent clinical research has shed light on a significant contribution of the lymphatic tissues, where HIV causes accumulation of collagen, (fibrosis). Specifically, where tissue is populated by certain types of functional stromal cells designated Fibroblastic Reticular Cells (FRCs), these have been found to play a crucial role in balancing out apoptosis and regeneration of naïve T-cells through 2-way cellular signaling. Tissue fibrosis not only impedes this signaling, effectively reducing T-cell levels through increased apoptosis of cells of both T- and FRC type but has been found to be irreversible by current HIV standard treatment (cART). While the therapy aims to block the viral lifecycle, cART-associated increase of T-cell levels in blood appears to conceal existing FRC impairment through fibrosis. This hidden impairment can lead to adverse consequences if treatment is interrupted, e.g. due to poor adherence (missing doses) or through periods recovering from drug toxicities. Formal clinical studies on treatment interruption have indicated possible adverse effects, but quantification of those effects in relation to interruption protocol and patient predisposition remains unclear. Accordingly, the impact of treatment interruption on lymphatic tissue structure and T-cell levels is explored here by means of computer simulation. A novel Stochastic Cellular Automata model is proposed, which utilizes all sources of clinical detail available to us (though sparse in part) for model parametrization. Sources are explicitly referenced and conflicting evidence from previous studies explored. The main focus is on (i) spatial aspects of collagen build up, together with (ii) collagen increase after repeated treatment interruptions to explore the dynamics of HIV-induced fibrosis and T-cell loss.

Pharmacodynamic Drug-Drug Interactions

Pharmacodynamic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) occur when the pharmacological effect of one drug is altered by that of another drug in a combination regimen. DDIs often are classified as synergistic, additive, or antagonistic in nature, albeit these terms are frequently misused. Within a complex pathophysiological system, the mechanism of interaction may occur at the same target or through alternate pathways. Quantitative evaluation of pharmacodynamic DDIs by employing modeling and simulation approaches is needed to identify and optimize safe and effective combination therapy regimens. This review investigates the opportunities and challenges in pharmacodynamic DDI studies and highlights examples of quantitative methods for evaluating pharmacodynamic DDIs, with a particular emphasis on the use of mechanism-based modeling and simulation in DDI studies. Advancements in both experimental and computational techniques will enable the application of better, model-informed assessments of pharmacodynamic DDIs in drug discovery, development, and therapeutics.

A study on the dynamics of temporary HIV treatment to assess the controversial outcomes of clinical trials: An in-silico approach

It is still unclear under which conditions temporary combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) results in a prolonged remission after interruption. Clinical trials have contradicting reposts about the effect of cART during primary HIV infection on the disease progression. Here we propose that the apparent contradiction is due the presence of a window of opportunity for cART treatment observed in the in silico studies. We study non-linear correlations in the HIV dynamics over time using information theory. This approach requires a large dataset of CD4+ T lymphocytes and viral load concentrations over time. Since it is unfeasible to collect the required amount of data in clinical trials we use C-ImmSim, a clinically validated in silico model of the HIV infection, to simulate the HIV infection and temporary cART in 500 virtual patients for a period of 6 years post infection in time steps of 8 hours. We validate the results of our model with two published clinical trials of temporary cART in acute infection and analyse the impact of cART on the immune response. Our quantitative analysis predicts a “window of opportunity” of about ten months after the acute phase during which a temporary cART has significantly longer-lasting beneficial effects on the immune system as compared to treatment during the chronic phase. This window may help to explain the controversial outcomes of clinical trials that differ by the starting time and duration of the short-term course cART and provides a critical insight to develop appropriate protocols for future clinical trials.

HIV-1-infected T-cells dynamics and prognosis: An evolutionary game model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Understanding the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is essential for depicting, developing, and investigating effective treatment strategies. HIV infects several types of immune cells, but its main target is to destroy helper T-cells. In the lymph nodes, the infected T-cells interact with each other and their environment to obtain more resources. According to infectivity and replicative capacity of T-cells in the HIV infection process, they can be divided into four phenotypes. Although genetic mutations in the reverse transcription that beget these phenotypes are random, the framework by which a phenotype become favored is affected by the environment and neighboring phenotypes. Moreover, the HIV disease has all components of an evolutionary process, including replication, mutation, and selection.

METHODS

We propose a novel structure-based game-theoretic model for the evolution of HIV-1-Infected CD4+T-cells and invasion of the immune system. We discuss the theoretical basis of the stable equilibrium states of the evolutionary dynamics of four T-cells types as well as its significant results to understand and control HIV infection. The results include the importance of genetic variations and the process of establishing evolutionary dynamics of the virus quasispecies.

RESULTS

Our results show that there is a direct dependency between some parameters such as mutation rates and the stability of equilibrium states in the HIV infection. This is an interesting result because these parameters can be changed by some pharmacotherapies and alternative treatments. Our model indicates that in an appropriate treatment the relative frequency of the wild type of virus quasispecies can be decreased in the population. Consequently, this can cause delaying the emergence of the AIDS phase. To assess the model, we investigate two new treatments for HIV. The results show that our model can predict the treatment results.

CONCLUSIONS

The paper shows that a structured-based evolutionary game theory can model the evolutionary dynamics of the infected T-cells and virus quasispecies. The model predicts certain aspects of the HIV infection process under several treatments.

A computational model to predict the immune system activation by citrus-derived vaccine adjuvants

MOTIVATION

Vaccines represent the most effective and cost-efficient weapons against a wide range of diseases. Nowadays new generation vaccines based on subunit antigens reduce adverse effects in high risk individuals. However, vaccine antigens are often poor immunogens when administered alone. Adjuvants represent a good strategy to overcome such hurdles, indeed they are able to: enhance the immune response; allow antigens sparing; accelerate the specific immune response; and increase vaccine efficacy in vulnerable groups such as newborns, elderly or immuno-compromised people. However, due to safety concerns and adverse reactions, there are only a few adjuvants approved for use in humans. Moreover, in practice current adjuvants sometimes fail to confer adequate stimulation. Hence, there is an imperative need to develop novel adjuvants that overcome the limitations of the currently available licensed adjuvants.

RESULTS

We developed a computational framework that provides a complete pipeline capable of predicting the best citrus-derived adjuvants for enhancing the immune system response using, as a target disease model, influenza A infection. In silico simulations suggested a good immune efficacy of specific citrus-derived adjuvant (Beta Sitosterol) that was then confirmed in vivoAvailability: The model is available visiting the following URL: http://vaima.dmi.unict.it/AdjSim

CONTACT

francesco.pappalardo@unict.it; fp@francescopappalardo.net.

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system

BACKGROUND

The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting.

METHODS

The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection.

RESULTS

Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider geographical areas, especially the under-developed countries across Asia and Africa.

The Applications of Genetic Algorithms in Medicine

A great wealth of information is hidden amid medical research data that in some cases cannot be easily analyzed, if at all, using classical statistical methods. Inspired by nature, metaheuristic algorithms have been developed to offer optimal or near-optimal solutions to complex data analysis and decision-making tasks in a reasonable time. Due to their powerful features, metaheuristic algorithms have frequently been used in other fields of sciences. In medicine, however, the use of these algorithms are not known by physicians who may well benefit by applying them to solve complex medical problems. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce the genetic algorithm and its applications in medicine. The use of the genetic algorithm has promising implications in various medical specialties including radiology, radiotherapy, oncology, pediatrics, cardiology, endocrinology, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, pulmonology, infectious diseases, orthopedics, rehabilitation medicine, neurology, pharmacotherapy, and health care management. This review introduces the applications of the genetic algorithm in disease screening, diagnosis, treatment planning, pharmacovigilance, prognosis, and health care management, and enables physicians to envision possible applications of this metaheuristic method in their medical career.].

Optimal harvesting for a predator-prey agent-based model using difference equations

In this paper, a method known as Pareto optimization is applied in the solution of a multi-objective optimization problem. The system in question is an agent-based model (ABM) wherein global dynamics emerge from local interactions. A system of discrete mathematical equations is formulated in order to capture the dynamics of the ABM; while the original model is built up analytically from the rules of the model, the paper shows how minor changes to the ABM rule set can have a substantial effect on model dynamics. To address this issue, we introduce parameters into the equation model that track such changes. The equation model is amenable to mathematical theory—we show how stability analysis can be performed and validated using ABM data. We then reduce the equation model to a simpler version and implement changes to allow controls from the ABM to be tested using the equations. Cohen's weighted κ is proposed as a measure of similarity between the equation model and the ABM, particularly with respect to the optimization problem. The reduced equation model is used to solve a multi-objective optimization problem via a technique known as Pareto optimization, a heuristic evolutionary algorithm. Results show that the equation model is a good fit for ABM data; Pareto optimization provides a suite of solutions to the multi-objective optimization problem that can be implemented directly in the ABM.

The Separatrix Algorithm for synthesis and analysis of stochastic simulations with applications in disease modeling

Decision makers in epidemiology and other disciplines are faced with the daunting challenge of designing interventions that will be successful with high probability and robust against a multitude of uncertainties. To facilitate the decision making process in the context of a goal-oriented objective (e.g., eradicate polio by [Formula: see text]), stochastic models can be used to map the probability of achieving the goal as a function of parameters. Each run of a stochastic model can be viewed as a Bernoulli trial in which "success" is returned if and only if the goal is achieved in simulation. However, each run can take a significant amount of time to complete, and many replicates are required to characterize each point in parameter space, so specialized algorithms are required to locate desirable interventions. To address this need, we present the Separatrix Algorithm, which strategically locates parameter combinations that are expected to achieve the goal with a user-specified probability of success (e.g. 95%). Technically, the algorithm iteratively combines density-corrected binary kernel regression with a novel information-gathering experiment design to produce results that are asymptotically correct and work well in practice. The Separatrix Algorithm is demonstrated on several test problems, and on a detailed individual-based simulation of malaria.

The application of multiobjective genetic algorithm to the parameter optimization of single-well potential stochastic resonance algorithm aimed at simultaneous determination of multiple weak chromatographic peaks

Simultaneous determination of multiple weak chromatographic peaks via stochastic resonance algorithm attracts much attention in recent years. However, the optimization of the parameters is complicated and time consuming, although the single-well potential stochastic resonance algorithm (SSRA) has already reduced the number of parameters to only one and simplified the process significantly. Even worse, it is often difficult to keep amplified peaks with beautiful peak shape. Therefore, multiobjective genetic algorithm was employed to optimize the parameter of SSRA for multiple optimization objectives (i.e., S/N and peak shape) and multiple chromatographic peaks. The applicability of the proposed method was evaluated with an experimental data set of Sudan dyes, and the results showed an excellent quantitative relationship between different concentrations and responses.

Novel drug delivery approaches on antiviral and antiretroviral agents

Viruses have the property to replicate very fast in host cell. It can attack any part of host cell. Therefore, the clinical efficacy of antiviral drugs and its bioavailability is more important concern taken into account to treat viral infections. The oral and parenteral routes of drug administration have several shortcomings, however, which could lead to the search for formulating better delivery systems. Now, a day's novel drug delivery systems (NDDS) proved to be a better approach to enhance the effectiveness of the antivirals and improve the patient compliance and decrease the adverse effect. The NDDS have reduced the dosing frequency and shorten the duration of treatment, thus, which could lead the treatment more cost-effective. The development of NDDS for antiviral and antiretroviral therapy aims to deliver the drug devoid of toxicity, with high compatibility and biodegradability, targeting the drug to specific sites for viral infection and in some instances it also avoid the first pass metabolism effect. This article aims to discuss the usefulness of novel delivery approaches of antiviral agents such as niosomes, microspheres, microemulsions, nanoparticles that are used in the treatment of various Herpes viruses and in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections.

HIV reservoirs and immune surveillance evasion cause the failure of structured treatment interruptions: a computational study

Continuous antiretroviral therapy is currently the most effective way to treat HIV infection. Unstructured interruptions are quite common due to side effects and toxicity, among others, and cannot be prevented. Several attempts to structure these interruptions failed due to an increased morbidity compared to continuous treatment. The cause of this failure is poorly understood and often attributed to drug resistance. Here we show that structured treatment interruptions would fail regardless of the emergence of drug resistance. Our computational model of the HIV infection dynamics in lymphoid tissue inside lymph nodes, demonstrates that HIV reservoirs and evasion from immune surveillance themselves are sufficient to cause the failure of structured interruptions. We validate our model with data from a clinical trial and show that it is possible to optimize the schedule of interruptions to perform as well as the continuous treatment in the absence of drug resistance. Our methodology enables studying the problem of treatment optimization without having impact on human beings. We anticipate that it is feasible to steer new clinical trials using computational models.

Immature oxidative stress management as a unifying principle in the pathogenesis of necrotizing enterocolitis: insights from an agent-based model

BACKGROUND

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a complex disease involving prematurity, enteral feeding, and bacterial effects. We propose that the underlying initial condition in its pathogenesis is reduced ability of the neonatal gut epithelial cells (NGECs) to clear oxidative stress (OS), and that when such a NGEC population is exposed to enteral feeding, the increased metabolic OS tips the population toward apoptosis, inflammation, bacterial activation, and eventual necrosis. The multi-factorial complexity of NEC requires characterization with computational modeling, and herein, we used an agent-based model (ABM) to instantiate and examine our unifying hypothesis of the pathogenesis of NEC.

METHODS

An ABM of the neonatal gut was created with NGEC computational agents incorporating rules for pathways for OS, p53, tight junctions, Toll-like receptor (TLR)-4, nitric oxide, and nuclear factor-kappa beta (NF-κB). The modeled bacteria activated TLR-4 on contact with NGECs. Simulations included parameter sweeps of OS response, response to feeding, addition of bacteria, and alterations in gut mucus production.

RESULTS

The ABM reproduced baseline cellular respiration and clearance of OS. Reduction in OS clearance consistent with clinical NEC led to senescence, apoptosis, or inflammation, with disruption of tight junctions, but rarely to NGEC necrosis. An additional "hit" of bacteria activating TLR-4 potentiated a shift to NGEC necrosis across the entire population. The mucus layer was modeled to limit bacterial-NGEC interactions and reduce this effect, but concomitant apoptosis in the goblet cell population reduced the efficacy of the mucus layer and limited its protective effect in simulated experiments. This finding suggests a means by which increased apoptosis at the cellular population level can lead to a transition to the necrosis outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Our ABM incorporates known components of NEC and demonstrates that impaired OS management can lead to apoptosis and inflammation of NGECs, rendering the system susceptible to an additional insult involving regionalized mucus barrier failure and TLR-4 activation, which potentiates the necrosis outcome. This type of integrative dynamic knowledge representation can be a useful adjunct to help guide and contextualize research.

SimB16: modeling induced immune system response against B16-melanoma

Immunological therapy of progressive tumors requires not only activation and expansion of tumor specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), but also an efficient effector phase including migration of CTLs in the tumor tissue followed by conjugation and killing of target cells. We report the application of an agent-based model to recapitulate both the effect of a specific immunotherapy strategy against B16-melanoma in mice and the tumor progression in a generic tissue section. A comparison of the in silico results with the in vivo experiments shows excellent agreement. We therefore use the model to predict a critical role for CD137 expression on tumor vessel endothelium for successful therapy and other mechanistic aspects. Experimental results are fully compatible with the model predictions. The biologically oriented in silico model derived in this work will be used to predict treatment failure or success in other pre-clinical conditions eventually leading new promising in vivo experiments.

Agent-based dynamic knowledge representation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa virulence activation in the stressed gut: Towards characterizing host-pathogen interactions in gut-derived sepsis

Background

There is a growing realization that alterations in host-pathogen interactions (HPI) can generate disease phenotypes without pathogen invasion. The gut represents a prime region where such HPI can arise and manifest. Under normal conditions intestinal microbial communities maintain a stable, mutually beneficial ecosystem. However, host stress can lead to changes in environmental conditions that shift the nature of the host-microbe dialogue, resulting in escalation of virulence expression, immune activation and ultimately systemic disease. Effective modulation of these dynamics requires the ability to characterize the complexity of the HPI, and dynamic computational modeling can aid in this task. Agent-based modeling is a computational method that is suited to representing spatially diverse, dynamical systems. We propose that dynamic knowledge representation of gut HPI with agent-based modeling will aid in the investigation of the pathogenesis of gut-derived sepsis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

An agent-based model (ABM) of virulence regulation in Pseudomonas aeruginosa was developed by translating bacterial and host cell sense-and-response mechanisms into behavioral rules for computational agents and integrated into a virtual environment representing the host-microbe interface in the gut. The resulting gut milieu ABM (GMABM) was used to: 1) investigate a potential clinically relevant laboratory experimental condition not yet developed - i.e. non-lethal transient segmental intestinal ischemia, 2) examine the sufficiency of existing hypotheses to explain experimental data - i.e. lethality in a model of major surgical insult and stress, and 3) produce behavior to potentially guide future experimental design - i.e. suggested sample points for a potential laboratory model of non-lethal transient intestinal ischemia. Furthermore, hypotheses were generated to explain certain discrepancies between the behaviors of the GMABM and biological experiments, and new investigatory avenues proposed to test those hypotheses.

Conclusions/Significance

Agent-based modeling can account for the spatio-temporal dynamics of an HPI, and, even when carried out with a relatively high degree of abstraction, can be useful in the investigation of system-level consequences of putative mechanisms operating at the individual agent level. We suggest that an integrated and iterative heuristic relationship between computational modeling and more traditional laboratory and clinical investigations, with a focus on identifying useful and sufficient degrees of abstraction, will enhance the efficiency and translational productivity of biomedical research.

A particular diffusion model for incomplete longitudinal data: application to the multicenter AIDS cohort study

Longitudinal studies, in which individuals are measured repeatedly in time, are often incomplete. We model continuous-time longitudinal data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study using a diffusion model in which the diffusion parameters are functions of the covariates. These data are jointly modeled with the process of time-to-death due to AIDS. We show that, even for large data sets with a large number of missing variables, a Bayesian analysis is feasible using Gibbs sampling and compare a complete case analysis with a Bayesian treatment of missing values.

Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review

BACKGROUND

Microsimulation models (MSMs) for health outcomes simulate individual event histories associated with key components of a disease process; these simulated life histories can be aggregated to estimate population-level effects of treatment on disease outcomes and the comparative effectiveness of treatments. Although MSMs are used to address a wide range of research questions, methodological improvements in MSM approaches have been slowed by the lack of communication among modelers. In addition, there are few resources to guide individuals who may wish to use MSM projections to inform decisions.

METHODS

. This article presents an overview of microsimulation modeling, focusing on the development and application of MSMs for health policy questions. The authors discuss MSM goals, overall components of MSMs, methods for selecting MSM parameters to reproduce observed or expected results (calibration), methods for MSM checking (validation), and issues related to reporting and interpreting MSM findings(sensitivity analyses, reporting of variability, and model transparency).

CONCLUSIONS

. MSMs are increasingly being used to provide information to guide health policy decisions. This increased use brings with it the need for both better understanding of MSMs by policy researchers, and continued improvement in methods for developing and applying MSMs.

Criticality of timing for anti-HIV therapy initiation

The time of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected patients has a determinant effect on the viral dynamics. The question is, how far can the therapy be delayed? Is sooner always better? We resort to clinical data and to microsimulations to forecast the dynamics of the viral load at therapy interruption after prolonged antiretroviral treatment. A computational model previously evaluated, produces results that are statistically adherent to clinical data. In addition, it allows a finer grain analysis of the impact of the therapy initiation point to the disease course. We find a swift increase of the viral density as a function of the time of initiation of the therapy measured when the therapy is stopped. In particular there is a critical time delay with respect to the infection instant beyond which the therapy does not affect the viral rebound. Initiation of the treatment is beneficial because it can down-regulate the immune activation, hence limiting viral replication and spread.

ImmunoGrid: towards agent-based simulations of the human immune system at a natural scale

The ultimate aim of the EU-funded ImmunoGrid project is to develop a natural-scale model of the human immune system-that is, one that reflects both the diversity and the relative proportions of the molecules and cells that comprise it-together with the grid infrastructure necessary to apply this model to specific applications in the field of immunology. These objectives present the ImmunoGrid Consortium with formidable challenges in terms of complexity of the immune system, our partial understanding about how the immune system works, the lack of reliable data and the scale of computational resources required. In this paper, we explain the key challenges and the approaches adopted to overcome them. We also consider wider implications for the present ambitious plans to develop natural-scale, integrated models of the human body that can make contributions to personalized health care, such as the European Virtual Physiological Human initiative. Finally, we ask a key question: How long will it take us to resolve these challenges and when can we expect to have fully functional models that will deliver health-care benefits in the form of personalized care solutions and improved disease prevention?

A novel paradigm for cell and molecule interaction ontology: from the CMM model to IMGT-ONTOLOGY

Background

Biology is moving fast toward the virtuous circle of other disciplines: from data to quantitative modeling and back to data. Models are usually developed by mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists to translate qualitative or semi-quantitative biological knowledge into a quantitative approach. To eliminate semantic confusion between biology and other disciplines, it is necessary to have a list of the most important and frequently used concepts coherently defined.

Results

We propose a novel paradigm for generating new concepts for an ontology, starting from model rather than developing a database. We apply that approach to generate concepts for cell and molecule interaction starting from an agent based model. This effort provides a solid infrastructure that is useful to overcome the semantic ambiguities that arise between biologists and mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists, when they interact in a multidisciplinary field.

Conclusions

This effort represents the first attempt at linking molecule ontology with cell ontology, in IMGT-ONTOLOGY, the well established ontology in immunogenetics and immunoinformatics, and a paradigm for life science biology. With the increasing use of models in biology and medicine, the need to link different levels, from molecules to cells to tissues and organs, is increasingly important.

Quantifying the treatment efficacy of reverse transcriptase inhibitors: new analyses of clinical data based on within-host modeling

Background

Current measures of the clinical efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the treatment of HIV include the change in HIV RNA in the plasma and the gain in CD4 cells.

Methods

We propose new measures for evaluating the efficacy of treatment that is based upon combinations of non-nucleoside and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Our efficacy measures are: the CD4 gain per virion eliminated, the potential of CD4 count restoration and the viral reproduction number (R₀). These efficacy measures are based upon a theoretical understanding of the impact of treatment on both viral dynamics and the immune reconstitution. Patient data were obtained from longitudinal HIV clinical cohorts.

Results

We found that the CD4 cell gain per virion eliminated ranged from 10^-2 to 600 CD4 cells/virion, the potential of CD4 count restoration ranged from 60 to 1520 CD4 cells/μl, and the basic reproduction number was reduced from an average of 5.1 before therapy to an average of 1.2 after one year of therapy. There was substantial heterogeneity in these efficacy measures among patients with detectable viral replication. We found that many patients who achieved viral suppression did not have high CD4 cell recovery profiles. Our efficacy measures also enabled us to identify a subgroup of patients who were not virally suppressed but had the potential to reach a high CD4 count and/or achieve viral suppression if they had been switched to a more potent regimen.

Conclusion

We show that our new efficacy measures are useful for analyzing the long-term treatment efficacy of combination reverse transcriptase inhibitors and argue that achieving a low R₀ does not imply achieving viral suppression.

Immune control of HIV-1 infection after therapy interruption: immediate versus deferred antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

The optimal stage for initiating antiretroviral therapies in HIV-1 bearing patients is still a matter of debate.

METHODS

We present computer simulations of HIV-1 infection aimed at identifying the pro et contra of immediate as compared to deferred Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART).

RESULTS

Our simulations highlight that a prompt specific CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes response is detected when therapy is delayed. Compared to very early initiation of HAART, in deferred treated patients CD8+ T cells manage to mediate the decline of viremia in a shorter time and, at interruption of therapy, the virus experiences a stronger immune pressure. We also observe, however, that the immunological effects of the therapy fade with time in both therapeutic regimens. Thus, within one year from discontinuation, viral burden recovers to the value at which it would level off in the absence of therapy.In summary, simulations show that immediate therapy does not prolong the disease-free period and does not confer a survival benefit when compared to treatment started during the chronic infection phase.

CONCLUSION

Our conclusion is that, since there is no therapy to date that guarantees life-long protection, deferral of therapy should be preferred in order to minimize the risk of adverse effects, the occurrence of drug resistances and the costs of treatment.

Reproducibility and usability of chronic virus infection model using agent-based simulation; comparing with a mathematical model

We created agent-based models that visually simulate conditions of chronic viral infections using two software. The results from two models were consistent, when they have same parameters during the actual simulation. The simulation results comprise a transient phase and an equilibrium phase, and unlike the mathematical model, virus count transit smoothly to the equilibrium phase without overshooting which correlates with actual biology in vivo of certain viruses. We investigated the effects caused by varying all the parameters included in concept; increasing virus lifespan, uninfected cell lifespan, uninfected cell regeneration rate, virus production count from infected cells, and infection rate had positive effects to the virus count during the equilibrium period, whereas increasing the latent period, the lifespan-shortening ratio for infected cells, and the cell cycle speed had negative effects. Virus count at the start did not influence the equilibrium conditions, but it influenced the infection development rate. The space size had no intrinsic effect on the equilibrium period, but virus count maximized when the virus moving speed was twice the space size. These agent-based simulation models reproducibly provide a visual representation of the disease, and enable a simulation that encompasses parameters those are difficult to account for in a mathematical model.

Stochastic modelling of genotypic drug-resistance for human immunodeficiency virus towards long-term combination therapy optimization

MOTIVATION

Several mathematical models have been investigated for the description of viral dynamics in the human body: HIV-1 infection is a particular and interesting scenario, because the virus attacks cells of the immune system that have a role in the antibody production and its high mutation rate permits to escape both the immune response and, in some cases, the drug pressure. The viral genetic evolution is intrinsically a stochastic process, eventually driven by the drug pressure, dependent on the drug combinations and concentration: in this article the viral genotypic drug resistance onset is the main focus addressed. The theoretical basis is the modelling of HIV-1 population dynamics as a predator-prey system of differential equations with a time-dependent therapy efficacy term, while the viral genome mutation evolution follows a Poisson distribution. The instant probabilities of drug resistance are estimated by means of functions trained from in vitro phenotypes, with a roulette-wheel-based mechanisms of resistant selection. Simulations have been designed for treatments made of one and two drugs as well as for combination antiretroviral therapies. The effect of limited adherence to therapy was also analyzed. Sequential treatment change episodes were also exploited with the aim to evaluate optimal synoptic treatment scenarios.

RESULTS

The stochastic predator-prey modelling usefully predicted long-term virologic outcomes of evolved HIV-1 strains for selected antiretroviral therapy combinations. For a set of widely used combination therapies, results were consistent with findings reported in literature and with estimates coming from analysis on a large retrospective data base (EuResist).

Towards a lightweight generic computational grid framework for biological research

Background

An increasing number of scientific research projects require access to large-scale computational resources. This is particularly true in the biological field, whether to facilitate the analysis of large high-throughput data sets, or to perform large numbers of complex simulations – a characteristic of the emerging field of systems biology.

Results

In this paper we present a lightweight generic framework for combining disparate computational resources at multiple sites (ranging from local computers and clusters to established national Grid services). A detailed guide describing how to set up the framework is available from the following URL: .

Conclusion

This approach is particularly (but not exclusively) appropriate for large-scale biology projects with multiple collaborators working at different national or international sites. The framework is relatively easy to set up, hides the complexity of Grid middleware from the user, and provides access to resources through a single, uniform interface. It has been developed as part of the European ImmunoGrid project.