Inhibition between human brain areas or methodological artefact?

Data-driven biomarkers better associate with stroke motor outcomes than theory-based biomarkers

Chronic motor impairments are a leading cause of disability after stroke. Previous studies have associated motor outcomes with the degree of damage to predefined structures in the motor system, such as the corticospinal tract. However, such theory-based approaches may not take full advantage of the information contained in clinical imaging data. The present study uses data-driven approaches to model chronic motor outcomes after stroke and compares the accuracy of these associations to previously-identified theory-based biomarkers. Using a cross-validation framework, regression models were trained using lesion masks and motor outcomes data from 789 stroke patients from the Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta Analysis (ENIGMA) Stroke Recovery Working Group. Using the explained variance metric to measure the strength of the association between chronic motor outcomes and imaging biomarkers, we compared theory-based biomarkers, like lesion load to known motor tracts, to three data-driven biomarkers: lesion load of lesion-behaviour maps, lesion load of structural networks associated with lesion-behaviour maps, and measures of regional structural disconnection. In general, data-driven biomarkers had stronger associations with chronic motor outcomes accuracy than theory-based biomarkers. Data-driven models of regional structural disconnection performed the best of all models tested (R 2 = 0.210, P < 0.001), performing significantly better than the theory-based biomarkers of lesion load of the corticospinal tract (R 2 = 0.132, P < 0.001) and of multiple descending motor tracts (R 2 = 0.180, P < 0.001). They also performed slightly, but significantly, better than other data-driven biomarkers including lesion load of lesion-behaviour maps (R 2 = 0.200, P < 0.001) and lesion load of structural networks associated with lesion-behaviour maps (R 2 = 0.167, P < 0.001). Ensemble models - combining basic demographic variables like age, sex, and time since stroke - improved the strength of associations for theory-based and data-driven biomarkers. Combining both theory-based and data-driven biomarkers with demographic variables improved predictions, and the best ensemble model achieved R 2 = 0.241, P < 0.001. Overall, these results demonstrate that out-of-sample associations between chronic motor outcomes and data-driven imaging features, particularly when lesion data is represented in terms of structural disconnection, are stronger than associations between chronic motor outcomes and theory-based biomarkers. However, combining both theory-based and data-driven models provides the most robust associations.

Data-driven biomarkers outperform theory-based biomarkers in predicting stroke motor outcomes

Chronic motor impairments are a leading cause of disability after stroke. Previous studies have predicted motor outcomes based on the degree of damage to predefined structures in the motor system, such as the corticospinal tract. However, such theory-based approaches may not take full advantage of the information contained in clinical imaging data. The present study uses data-driven approaches to predict chronic motor outcomes after stroke and compares the accuracy of these predictions to previously-identified theory-based biomarkers. Using a cross-validation framework, regression models were trained using lesion masks and motor outcomes data from 789 stroke patients (293 female/496 male) from the ENIGMA Stroke Recovery Working Group (age 64.9±18.0 years; time since stroke 12.2±0.2 months; normalised motor score 0.7±0.5 (range [0,1]). The out-of-sample prediction accuracy of two theory-based biomarkers was assessed: lesion load of the corticospinal tract, and lesion load of multiple descending motor tracts. These theory-based prediction accuracies were compared to the prediction accuracy from three data-driven biomarkers: lesion load of lesion-behaviour maps, lesion load of structural networks associated with lesion-behaviour maps, and measures of regional structural disconnection. In general, data-driven biomarkers had better prediction accuracy - as measured by higher explained variance in chronic motor outcomes - than theory-based biomarkers. Data-driven models of regional structural disconnection performed the best of all models tested (R2 = 0.210, p < 0.001), performing significantly better than predictions using the theory-based biomarkers of lesion load of the corticospinal tract (R2 = 0.132, p< 0.001) and of multiple descending motor tracts (R2 = 0.180, p < 0.001). They also performed slightly, but significantly, better than other data-driven biomarkers including lesion load of lesion-behaviour maps (R2 =0.200, p < 0.001) and lesion load of structural networks associated with lesion-behaviour maps (R2 =0.167, p < 0.001). Ensemble models - combining basic demographic variables like age, sex, and time since stroke - improved prediction accuracy for theory-based and data-driven biomarkers. Finally, combining both theory-based and data-driven biomarkers with demographic variables improved predictions, and the best ensemble model achieved R2 = 0.241, p < 0.001. Overall, these results demonstrate that models that predict chronic motor outcomes using data-driven features, particularly when lesion data is represented in terms of structural disconnection, perform better than models that predict chronic motor outcomes using theory-based features from the motor system. However, combining both theory-based and data-driven models provides the best predictions.