Association of Group B streptococcus serum serotype-specific anti-capsular IgG concentration and risk reduction for invasive Group B streptococcus disease in South African infants: an observational birth-cohort, matched case-control study

Epidemiology of Group B Streptococcus: Maternal Colonization and Infant Disease in Kampala, Uganda

Background

Child survival rates have improved globally, but neonatal mortality due to infections, such as group B Streptococcus (GBS), remains a significant concern. The global burden of GBS-related morbidity and mortality is substantial. However, data from low and middle-income countries are lacking. Vaccination during pregnancy could be a feasible strategy to address GBS-related disease burden.

Methods

We assessed maternal rectovaginal GBS colonization and neonatal disease rates in a prospective cohort of 6062 women-infant pairs. Surveillance for invasive infant disease occurred in parallel at 2 Kampala hospital sites. In a nested case-control study, we identified infants <90 days of age with invasive GBS disease (iGBS) (n = 24) and healthy infants born to mothers colonized with GBS (n = 72). We measured serotype-specific anticapsular immunoglobulin G (IgG) in cord blood/infant sera using a validated multiplex Luminex assay.

Results

We found a high incidence of iGBS (1.0 per 1000 live births) within the first 90 days of life across the surveillance sites, associated with a high case fatality rate (18.2%). Maternal GBS colonization prevalence was consistent with other studies in the region (14.7% [95% confidence interval, 13.7%-15.6%]). IgG geometric mean concentrations were lower in cases than controls for serotypes Ia (0.005 vs 0.12 µg/mL; P = .05) and III (0.011 vs 0.036 µg/mL; P = .07) and in an aggregate analysis of all serotypes (0.014 vs 0.05 µg/mL; P = .02).

Conclusions

We found that GBS is an important cause of neonatal and young infant disease in Uganda and confirmed that maternally derived antibodies were lower in early-onset GBS cases than in healthy exposed controls.

Association of serum anti-gbs2106 protein immunoglobulin G (IgG) in newborns and risk reduction of invasive group B streptococcus disease during early infancy

BACKGROUND

Human immunoglobulin G (IgG) directed against Group B streptococcus (GBS) epitopes is transferred transplacentally from the mother to the fetus. A GBS putative protein, gbs2106, has been previously identified as a potential GBS protein antigen vaccine candidate. However, its genetic prevalence and surface expression in GBS-isolates has not been evaluated. In this study, we evaluated the prevalence, surface expression and association of maternal-acquired serum anti-gbs2106 IgG in newborns and risk reduction of infant invasive GBS disease through to 90 days of age in a South African-based cohort.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study within a previously established birth cohort that was designed to investigate serological markers associated with risk reduction of invasive GBS disease. In the parent study, additional cases were identified through a hospital surveillance system which included infants diagnosed with culture-confirmed invasive GBS disease outside the original cohort study. In this current study, surface expression of gbs2106 was analyzed on recto-vaginal colonizing isolates from mothers whose infants remained healthy, and on isolates from infants who developed invasive GBS disease. Flow cytometry was used to determine surface expression levels. The anti-gbs2106 IgG in maternal and infant or cord blood was measured using a bead-based assay on the Luminex platform.

RESULTS

The gbs2106 gene was present on all colonizing GBS-isolates from women in the control group and infant invasive GBS-isolates. The gbs2106 protein was expressed on 81.6 % (71/87) and 82.2 % (48/58) of maternal colonizing isolates and invasive GBS-isolates, respectively. There was a strong positive correlation (r = 0.855, p < 0.0001) of maternal and cord serum anti-gbs2106 IgG levels, with the combined cord to maternal anti-gbs2106 IgG geometric mean concentration ratio being 0.9 (IQR 0.7-1.1). Serum anti-gbs2106 IgG geometric mean concentrations in the infants were lower among the invasive disease cases (158.7 arbitrary units [AU]/ml; 95 %CI: 102.3-246.2) compared with controls (304.8 AU/ml; 95 %CI: 226.8-409.8; p = 0.012).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates an inverse association between infant serum anti-gbs2106 IgG and risk of invasive GBS disease, indicating gbs2106 protein as a potential vaccine candidate.

Development and validation of a 6-plex Luminex-based assay for measuring human serum antibodies to group B streptococcus capsular polysaccharides

Six serotypes (Ia, Ib, II, III, IV, and V) cause nearly all group B streptococcal (GBS) disease globally. Capsular polysaccharide (CPS) conjugate vaccines aim to prevent GBS disease, however, licensure of a vaccine would depend on a standardized serological assay for measuring anti-CPS IgG responses. A multiplex direct Luminex-based immunoassay (dLIA) has been developed to simultaneously measure the concentration of serum IgG specific for the six prevalent GBS CPS serotypes. Assay validation was performed using serum samples obtained from human subjects vaccinated with an investigational 6-valent GBS CPS conjugate vaccine. Results for the assay are expressed as IgG concentrations (µg/mL) using a human serum reference standard composed of pooled sera from vaccinated subjects. The lower limits of quantitation (LLOQ) for all serotypes covered in the 6-plex GBS IgG dLIA fell within the range of 0.002-0.022 µg/mL IgG. Taken together, the 6-plex GBS IgG dLIA platform is specific for the six GBS serotypes included in Pfizer's investigational vaccine, has a wide dilution adjusted assay range, and is precise (<18.5% relative standard deviation) for all serotypes, and, therefore, is suitable for quantitatively measuring vaccine-induced or naturally acquired serotype-specific anti-CPS IgG responses against GBS.

Association between anti-capsular IgG levels at birth and risk of invasive group B streptococcus disease in Finnish newborns: a retrospective case-control study

BACKGROUND

Group B streptococcus is a major cause of neonatal disease. Natural history studies have linked maternally transferred anti-group B streptococcus capsular polysaccharide antibodies with protection against infant group B streptococcus disease. Previous studies of capsular polysaccharide antibody concentration in European populations have used maternal (not infant) sera and a non-standardised assay. This study aimed to evaluate anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations associated with protection against invasive group B streptococcus disease in Finnish infants.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, we used cord sera from the Finnish DIPP study repository, which was obtained between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2017. We included infants aged 6 months or younger with group B streptococcus infection (cases) and healthy infants (controls). We enrolled infants with invasive neonatal group B streptococcus (55 cases) and matched controls (229 controls) aged 6 months or younger after identification from Finnish health registers. We measured anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG (serotypes Ia-V) concentration using a standardised immunoassay and we estimated its relationship to disease risk using a Bayesian model. We used the derived risk-concentration curve to predict potential efficacy of six-valent group B streptococcus capsular polysaccharide vaccine (GBS6) based on previously reported immunogenicity data.

FINDINGS

Most (32 [58%] of 55 cases) group B streptococcus cases were due to serotype III and anti-serotype III streptococcus capsular IgG concentrations were higher in serotype III-matched controls than in cases (p<0·001). 0·120-0·266 μg/mL serotype III-specific IgG was estimated to confer 75-90% risk reduction against serotype III disease. A universal risk-concentration curve, aggregating results across all six serotypes, yielded similar results. Application of this curve to GBS6 immunogenicity data predicted maternal immunisation to be more than 80% efficacious for prevention of infant group B streptococcus disease.

INTERPRETATION

Higher neonatal anti-capsular polysaccharide serum IgG concentration at birth correlated with reduced risk of infant group B streptococcus disease in Finland. Based on these results, a maternal group B streptococcus capsular conjugate vaccine currently in development is predicted to be efficacious.

FUNDING

Pfizer.

Antibody kinetics between birth and three months of life in healthy infants with natural exposure to Group B streptococcus: A UK cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Capsular polysaccharide (CPS) serotype-specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) in cord blood has been proposed as a correlate of protection against invasive Group B Streptococcus (iGBS) disease. Although protective levels are required in infants throughout the window of vulnerability up to 3 months of age, little is known regarding the kinetics of GBS-specific IgG over this period.

METHODS

We enrolled 33 healthy infants born to mothers colonized with GBS. We collected cord blood and infant blood samples either at one (21-35 days), two (49-63 days), or three months of age (77-91 days). We measured GBS serotype-specific CPS IgG concentrations and calculated the decay rate using a mixed-effects model. We further explored whether the antibody kinetics were affected by common maternal and infant factors and estimated the correlation between IgG concentration at birth and one, two, and three months of age.

RESULTS

The half-life estimate of IgG concentration for homologous and non-homologous GBS serotypes in paired samples with detectable IgG levels at both time points was 27.4 (95 % CI: 23.5-32.9) days. The decay rate did not vary by maternal age (p = 0.7), ethnicity (p = 0.1), gravida (p = 0.1), gestation (p = 0.7), and infant sex (p = 0.1). Predicted IgG titres above the assay lower limit of quantification on day 30 strongly correlated with titres at birth (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.71 [95 % CI: 0.60-0.80]).

CONCLUSION

Our results provide a basis for future investigations into the use of antibody kinetics in defining a serocorrelate of protection against late-onset iGBS disease.

Re-N-acetylation of group B Streptococcus type Ia capsular polysaccharide improves the immunogenicity of glycoconjugate vaccines

The capsular polysaccharides (CPS) of Group B Streptococcus play a crucial role as virulence determinants and are potential candidates for antigenic components in vaccine formulations. Alkaline treatments are commonly used to extract polysaccharides owing to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness; however, they may induce the removal of N-acetyl groups from CPS. This study involved re-N-acetylation of CPS Ia to improve its biological functionality. The structural modifications and enhanced antigenicity of CPS Ia were observed after re-N-acetylation. The tetanus toxoid (TT) was conjugated with either partially de-N-acetylated or fully re-N-acetylated CPS. As a result, the conjugate containing re-N-acetylated CPS (IaReN-TT) enhanced the induction of IgG antibody levels and functional antibodies in mice. Both passive and active protection assays substantiated the superior protective efficacy of IaReN-TT, suggesting that the re-N-acetylation of CPS Ia could be a critical step in refining the immunogenic profile of glycoconjugate vaccines.

Obstetric and neonatal outcomes in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Background epidemiologic population data from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), on maternal, foetal and neonatal adverse outcomes are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence of maternal, foetal and neonatal adverse outcomes at South African maternal vaccine trial sites as reported directly in the clinical notes as well as using the 'Global Alignment of Immunization Safety Assessment in Pregnancy' case definitions (GAIA-CDs). GAIA-CDs were utilized as a tool to standardise data collection and outcome assessment, and the applicability and utility of the GAIA-CDs was evaluated in a LMIC observational study.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective record review of maternity and neonatal case records for births that occurred in Soweto, Inner City- Johannesburg and Metro-East Cape Town, South Africa, between 1st July 2017 and 30th June 2018. Study staff abstracted data from randomly selected medical charts onto standardized study-specific forms. Incidence (per 100,000 population) was calculated for adverse maternal, foetal and neonatal outcomes, which were identified as priority outcomes in vaccine safety studies by the Brighton Collaboration and World Health Organization. Outcomes reported directly in the clinical notes and outcomes which fulfilled GAIA-CDs were compared. Incidence of outcomes was calculated by combining cases which were either reported in clinical notes by attending physicians and/ or fulfilled GAIA-CDs.

FINDINGS

Of 9371 pregnant women enrolled, 27·6% were HIV-infected, 19·9% attended antenatal clinic in the 1st trimester of pregnancy and 55·3% had ≥1 ultrasound examination. Fourteen percent of women had hypertensive disease of pregnancy, 1·3% had gestational diabetes mellitus and 16% experienced preterm labour. There were 150 stillbirths (1·6%), 26·8% of infants were preterm and five percent had microcephaly. Data available in clinical notes for some adverse outcomes, including maternal- & neonatal death, severe pre-eclampsia/ eclampsia, were able to fulfil GAIA-CDs criteria for all of the clinically-reported cases, however, missing data required to fulfil other GAIA-CD criteria (including stillbirth, gestational diabetes mellitus and gestational hypertension) led to poor correlation between clinically-reported adverse outcomes and outcomes fulfilling GAIA-CDs. Challenges were also encountered in accurately ascertaining gestational age.

INTERPRETATION

This study contributes to the expanding body of data on background rates of adverse maternal and foetal/ neonatal outcomes in LMICs. Utilization of GAIA-CDs assists with alignment of data, however, some GAIA-CDs require amendment to improve the applicability in LMICs.

FUNDING

This study was funded by Pfizer (Inc).

Potential for Maternally Administered Vaccine for Infant Group B Streptococcus

BACKGROUND

Natural history studies have correlated serotype-specific anti-capsular polysaccharide (CPS) IgG in newborns with a reduced risk of group B streptococcal disease. A hexavalent CPS-cross-reactive material 197 glycoconjugate vaccine (GBS6) is being developed as a maternal vaccine to prevent invasive group B streptococcus in young infants.

METHODS

In an ongoing phase 2, placebo-controlled trial involving pregnant women, we assessed the safety and immunogenicity of a single dose of various GBS6 formulations and analyzed maternally transferred anti-CPS antibodies. In a parallel seroepidemiologic study that was conducted in the same population, we assessed serotype-specific anti-CPS IgG concentrations that were associated with a reduced risk of invasive disease among newborns through 89 days of age to define putative protective thresholds.

RESULTS

Naturally acquired anti-CPS IgG concentrations were associated with a reduced risk of disease among infants in the seroepidemiologic study. IgG thresholds that were determined to be associated with 75 to 95% reductions in the risk of disease were 0.184 to 0.827 μg per milliliter. No GBS6-associated safety signals were observed among the mothers or infants. The incidence of adverse events and of serious adverse events were similar across the trial groups for both mothers and infants; more local reactions were observed in the groups that received GBS6 containing aluminum phosphate. Among the infants, the most common serious adverse events were minor congenital anomalies (umbilical hernia and congenital dermal melanocytosis). GBS6 induced maternal antibody responses to all serotypes, with maternal-to-infant antibody ratios of approximately 0.4 to 1.3, depending on the dose. The percentage of infants with anti-CPS IgG concentrations above 0.184 μg per milliliter varied according to serotype and formulation, with 57 to 97% of the infants having a seroresponse to the most immunogenic formulation.

CONCLUSIONS

GBS6 elicited anti-CPS antibodies against group B streptococcus in pregnant women that were transferred to infants at levels associated with a reduced risk of invasive group B streptococcal disease. (Funded by Pfizer and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; C1091002 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03765073.).

Early-onset group B streptococcal disease in African countries and maternal vaccination strategies

Invasive group B streptococcal (GBS) disease is the commonest perinatally-acquired bacterial infection in newborns; the burden is higher in African countries where intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis strategies are not feasible. In sub-Saharan Africa, almost one in four newborns with GBS early-onset disease will demise, and one in ten survivors have moderate or severe neurodevelopmental impairment. A maternal GBS vaccine to prevent invasive GBS disease in infancy is a pragmatic and cost-effective preventative strategy for Africa. Hexavalent polysaccharide protein conjugate and Alpha family surface protein vaccines are undergoing phase II clinical trials. Vaccine licensure may be facilitated by demonstrating safety and immunological correlates/thresholds suggestive of protection against invasive GBS disease. This will then be followed by phase IV effectiveness studies to assess the burden of GBS vaccine preventable disease, including the effect on all-cause neonatal infections, neonatal deaths and stillbirths.

Calibration of a serum reference standard for Group B streptococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine development using surface plasmon resonance

Group B streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Development of a maternal vaccine to protect newborns through placentally transferred antibody is considered feasible based on the well-established relationship between anti-GBS capsular polysaccharide (CPS) IgG levels at birth and reduced risk of neonatal invasive GBS. An accurately calibrated serum reference standard that can be used to measure anti-CPS concentrations is critical for estimation of protective antibody levels across serotypes and potential vaccine performance. For this, precise weight-based measurement of anti-CPS IgG in sera is required. Here, we report an improved approach for determining serum anti-CPS IgG levels using surface plasmon resonance with monoclonal antibody standards, coupled with a direct Luminex-based immunoassay. This technique was used to quantify serotype-specific anti-CPS IgG levels in a human serum reference pool derived from subjects immunized with an investigational six-valent GBS glycoconjugate vaccine.

Advances towards licensure of a maternal vaccine for the prevention of invasive group B streptococcus disease in infants: a discussion of different approaches

Group B streptococcus (Streptococcus agalactiae, GBS) is an important cause of life-threatening disease in newborns. Pregnant women colonized with GBS can transmit the bacteria to the developing fetus, as well as to their neonates during or after delivery where infection can lead to sepsis, meningitis, pneumonia, or/and death. While intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) is the standard of care for prevention of invasive GBS disease in some countries, even in such settings a substantial residual burden of disease remains. A GBS vaccine administered during pregnancy could potentially address this important unmet medical need and provide an adjunct or alternative to IAP for the prevention of invasive GBS disease in neonates. A hurdle for vaccine development has been relatively low disease rates making efficacy studies difficult. Given the well-accepted inverse relationship between anti-GBS capsular polysaccharide antibody titers at birth and risk of disease, licensure using serological criteria as a surrogate biomarker represents a promising approach to accelerate the availability of a GBS vaccine.

Active Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Pregnancy Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy has been associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. There is, however, not much information on the impact of the timing of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy outcomes, and studies from low-middle income settings are also scarce.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional study from April to December 2020, in South Africa, to assess the association of SARS-CoV-2 infection on a nasal swab at the time of labor with fetal death, preterm birth, low birth weight, or pregnancy-induced complications. When possible, maternal blood, cord blood, and placenta were collected. SARS-CoV-2 infection was investigated by a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT).

RESULTS

Overall, 3,117 women were tested for SARS-CoV-2 on a nasal swab, including 1,562 (50%) healthy women with uncomplicated term delivery. A positive NAAT was detected among 132 (4%) women. Adverse birth outcomes or pregnancy-related complications were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of labor. Among SARS-CoV-2-infected women, an NAAT-positive result was also obtained from 6 out of 98 (6%) maternal blood samples, 8 out of 93 (9%) cord-blood samples, 14 out of 54 (26%) placentas, and 3 out of 22 (14%) nasopharyngeal swabs from newborns collected within 72 hours of birth. Histological assessment of placental tissue revealed that women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds (3.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 12.19) of chronic chorioamnionitis compared with those without SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates that intrapartum, SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes. In utero fetal and placental infections and possible vertical and/or horizontal viral transfer to the newborn were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection.

KEY POINTS

· Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes.. · In utero fetal and placental infections were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection.. · Women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds of chronic chorioamnionitis..

Prevalence of Group B Streptococcus in pregnant women in Kerala and relation to neonatal outcomes: a prospective cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Early onset sepsis (EOS) in neonates is a scourge that contributes to morbidity and mortality. Prominent stakeholders recommend universal screening of antenatal women for Group B Streptococcus (GBS) and intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) for those who are carriers. However, there are controversies. Other guidelines allow region-specific protocols due to sociodemographic, geographical and ethnic differences. We planned to analyze the prevalence of GBS rectovaginal carriage at 36-37 weeks gestation and its effect on early neonatal status.

METHODS

This prospective multidisciplinary study (Obstetrics, Perinatology, Neonatology, Microbiology and Infectious diseases) was conducted in our tertiary care center between February 2020 and May 2021.

RESULTS

In our study group which included 966 mothers who delivered at the hospital, 4.8% of mothers who were screened by genito-rectal swabs were positive for GBS at 36-37 weeks gestation. All these mothers were given IAP as per protocol. Other organisms detected on screening mothers were Candida and Gram-negative bacteria. None of the neonates born to these mothers required any intensive care unit admission or therapy for systemic illness. There was no difference in clinically relevant outcomes between neonates who were born to GBS-positive mothers as compared to those born to negative screen result mothers.

CONCLUSIONS

GBS prevalence in our cohort was lower than most scientific reports. The neonates born to carrier mothers did not present with signs of early-onset sepsis.

Methodology for a correlate of protection for group B Streptococcus: Report from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation workshop held on 10 and 11 February 2021

Worldwide, childhood mortality has declined significantly, with improvements in hygiene and vaccinations against common childhood illnesses, yet newborn mortality remains high. Group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease significantly contributes to newborn mortality and is the leading cause of meningitis in infants. Many years of research have demonstrated the potential for maternal vaccination against GBS to confer protection to the infant, and at least three vaccine candidates are currently undergoing clinical trials. Given the relatively low disease incidence, any clinical vaccine efficacy study would need to include at least 40,000 to 60,000 participants. Therefore, a path to vaccine licensure based on a correlate of protection (CoP) would be the preferred route, with post-approval effectiveness studies demonstrating vaccine impact on reduction of disease burden likely to be required as part of conditional marketing approval. This workshop, hosted by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on 10 and 11 February 2021, discussed considerations and potential statistical methodologies for establishing a CoP for GBS disease. Consensus was reached that an antibody marker with global threshold predictive of a high level of vaccine protection would be most beneficial for licensure assessments. IgG binding antibody in cord blood would likely serve as the CoP, with additional studies needed to confirm a high correlation with functional antibody and to demonstrate comparable kinetics of natural versus vaccine-induced antibody. Common analyses of ongoing seroepidemiological studies include estimation of absolute and relative disease risk as a function of infant antibody concentration, with adjustment for confounders of the impact of antibody concentration on infant GBS disease including gestational age and maternal age. Estimation of an antibody concentration threshold indicative of high protection should build in margin for uncertainties from sources including unmeasured confounders, imperfect causal mediation, and variability in point and confidence interval estimates across regions and/or serotypes.

Fetal Transfer of Human Metapneumovirus-Neutralizing Antibodies Is Reduced From Mothers Living With HIV-1

Transplacental hMPV-neutralizing antibody transfer was reduced from mothers living with HIV-1. However, a comparison of antibody titers at birth between hMPV hospitalization cases at <6 months and matched controls suggested that reduced maternal antibody might not be the primary cause of the previously reported elevated hMPV risk in HIV-1-exposed infants.

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) colonisation is dynamic over time, whilst GBS capsular polysaccharides-specific antibody remains stable

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes due to invasive infection. This study investigated longitudinal variation in GBS rectovaginal colonization, serum and vaginal GBS capsular polysaccharide (CPS)-specific antibody levels. Non-pregnant women were recruited in the UK and were sampled every 2 weeks over a 12-week period. GBS isolates were taken from recto-vaginal swabs and serotyped by polymerase chain reaction. Serum and vaginal immunoglobulin G (IgG) and nasal immunoglobulin A (IgA) specific to CPS were measured by Luminex, and total IgG/A by ELISA. Seventy women were enrolled, of median age 26. Out of the 66 participants who completed at least three visits: 14/47 (29.8%) women that were GBS negative at screening became positive in follow-up visits and 16/19 (84.2%) women who were GBS positive at screening became negative. There was 50% probability of becoming negative 36 days after the first positive swab. The rate of detectable GBS carriage fluctuated over time, although serum, vaginal, and nasal CPS-specific antibody levels remained constant. Levels of CPS-specific antibodies were higher in the serum of individuals colonized with GBS than in non-colonized, but similar in the vaginal and nasal mucosa. We found correlations between antibody levels in serum and the vaginal and nasal mucosa. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of elution methods to retrieve vaginal and nasal antibodies, and the optimization of immunoassays to measure GBS-CPS-specific antibodies. The difference between the dynamics of colonization and antibody response is interesting and further investigation is required for vaccine development.

Estimation of invasive Group B Streptococcus disease risk in young infants from case-control serological studies

Background

Group B Streptococcus (GBS) infections are a major cause of invasive disease (IGbsD) in young infants and cause miscarriage and stillbirths. Immunization of pregnant women against GBS in addition to intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis could prevent disease. Establishing accurate serological markers of protection against IGbsD could enable use of efficient clinical trial designs for vaccine development and licensure, without needing to undertake efficacy trials in prohibitively large number of mother-infant dyads. The association of maternal naturally acquired serotype-specific anti-capsular antibodies (IgG) against serotype-specific IGbsD in their infants has been studied in case-control studies. The statistical models used so far to estimate IGbsD risk from these case-control studies assumed that the antibody concentrations measured sharing the same disease status are sampled from the same population, not allowing for differences between mothers colonised by GBS and mothers also potentially infected (e.g urinary tract infection or chorioamnionitis) by GBS during pregnancy. This distinction is relevant as infants born from infected mothers with occult medical illness may be exposed to GBS prior to the mother developing antibodies measured in maternal or infant sera.

Methods

Unsupervised mixture model averaging (MMA) is proposed and applied here to accurately estimate infant IGbsD risk from case-control study data in presence or absence of antibody concentration subgroups potentially associated to maternal GBS carriage or infection. MMA estimators are compared to non-parametric disease risk estimators in simulation studies and by analysis of two published GBS case-control studies.

Results

MMA provides more accurate relative risk estimates under a broad range of data simulation scenarios and more accurate absolute disease risk estimates when the proportion of IGbsD cases with high antibody levels is not ignorable. MMA estimates of the relative and absolute disease risk curves are more amenable to clinical interpretation compared to non-parametric estimates with no detectable overfitting of the data. Antibody concentration thresholds predictive of protection from infant IGbsD estimated by MMA from maternal and infant sera are consistent with non-parametric estimates.

Conclusions

MMA is a flexible and robust method for design, accurate analysis and clinical interpretation of case-control studies estimating relative and absolute IGbsD risk from antibody concentrations measured at or after birth.