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King DF, Groves H, Weller C, Jones I, Cramer JP, Gilbert PB, Goldblatt D, Gruber MF, Kampmann B, Maïga D, Pasetti MF, Plotkin SA, Precioso A, Wassie L, Wittke F, Kaslow DC. Realising the potential of correlates of protection for vaccine development, licensure and use: short summary. NPJ Vaccines 2024; 9:82. [PMID: 38684704 PMCID: PMC11058756 DOI: 10.1038/s41541-024-00872-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Ian Jones
- WHO consultant, Jinja Publishing Ltd, London, UK
| | - Jakob P Cramer
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), 215 Euston Road, London, NW1 2BE, UK
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David Goldblatt
- Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marion F Gruber
- International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI), 125 Broad Street, New York, NY, 10004, USA
| | - Beate Kampmann
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
| | - Diadié Maïga
- World Health Organization (WHO) - Regional Office for Africa, Cité du Djoué, P.O.Box 06, Brazzaville, Republic of Congo
| | - Marcela F Pasetti
- Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Alexander Precioso
- Instituto Butantan1500, Vital Brasil Avenue, Butantã, São Paulo, SP, 05503900, Brazil
| | - Liya Wassie
- Armauer Hansen Research Institute, Jimma Road, ALERT Campus, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | - David C Kaslow
- PATH 2201 Westlake Avenue, Suite 200, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
- US FDA, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
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2
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Sherman A, Tuan J, Cantos VD, Adeyiga O, Mahoney S, Ortega-Villa AM, Tillman A, Whitaker J, Woodward Davis AS, Leav B, Hirsch I, Sadoff J, Dunkle LM, Gilbert PB, Janes HE, Kublin JG, Goepfert PA, Kotloff K, Rouphael N, Falsey AR, El Sahly HM, Sobieszczyk ME, Huang Y, Neuzil KM, Corey L, Grinsztejn B, Gray G, Nason M, Baden LR, Gay CL. COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in participants with weakened immune systems from four randomized-controlled trials. Clin Infect Dis 2024:ciae192. [PMID: 38598658 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2023] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing severe disease in the general population, current data are lacking regarding vaccine efficacy (VE) for individuals with mild immunocompromising conditions. METHODS A post-hoc, cross-protocol analysis of participant-level data from the blinded phase of four randomized, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine phase 3 trials (Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax) was performed. We defined a "tempered immune system" (TIS) variable via a consensus panel based on medical history and medications to determine VE against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 cases in TIS participants versus non-TIS (NTIS) individuals starting at 14 days after completion of the primary series through the blinded phase for each of the four trials. An analysis of participants living with well-controlled HIV was conducted using the same methods. RESULTS 3,852/30,351 (12.7%) Moderna participants, 3,088/29,868 (10.3%) Novavax participants, 3,549/32,380 (11.0%) AstraZeneca participants, and 5,047/43,788 (11.5%) Janssen participants were identified as having a TIS. Most TIS conditions (73.9%) were due to metabolism and nutritional disorders. Vaccination (versus placebo) significantly reduced the likelihood of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 for all participants for each trial. VE was not significantly different for TIS participants vs NTIS for either symptomatic or severe COVID-19 for each trial, nor was VE significantly different in the symptomatic endpoint for participants with HIV. CONCLUSIONS For individuals with mildly immunocompromising conditions, there is no evidence of differences in VE against symptomatic or severe COVID-19 compared to those with non-tempered immune systems in the four COVID-19 vaccine randomized controlled efficacy trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy Sherman
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jessica Tuan
- Yale School of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Valeria D Cantos
- Emory University, Division of Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Oladunni Adeyiga
- University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Scott Mahoney
- University of Cape Town, Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Department of Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ana M Ortega-Villa
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Amy Tillman
- Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA
| | - Jennifer Whitaker
- Baylor College of Medicine, Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology and Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | | | - Ian Hirsch
- Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, Netherlands
| | | | - Peter B Gilbert
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Holly E Janes
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - James G Kublin
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- University of Alabama at Birmingham, Department of Medicine, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Karen Kotloff
- University of Maryland School of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics and the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Ann R Falsey
- University of Rochester, Infectious Disease Division, Rochester, NY, USA
| | - Hana M El Sahly
- Baylor College of Medicine, Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology and Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | - Yunda Huang
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- University of Maryland School of Medicine, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- University of Washington, Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Seattle, WA, USA
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Glenda Gray
- University of the Witwatersrand, Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, Johannesburg, South Africa; South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Martha Nason
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Lindsey R Baden
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Cynthia L Gay
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, UNC HIV Cure Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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3
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Gilbert PB, Fong Y, Hejazi NS, Kenny A, Huang Y, Carone M, Benkeser D, Follmann D. Four statistical frameworks for assessing an immune correlate of protection (surrogate endpoint) from a randomized, controlled, vaccine efficacy trial. Vaccine 2024; 42:2181-2190. [PMID: 38458870 PMCID: PMC10999339 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.02.071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2023] [Revised: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/10/2024]
Abstract
A central goal of vaccine research is to characterize and validate immune correlates of protection (CoPs). In addition to helping elucidate immunological mechanisms, a CoP can serve as a valid surrogate endpoint for an infectious disease clinical outcome and thus qualifies as a primary endpoint for vaccine authorization or approval without requiring resource-intensive randomized, controlled phase 3 trials. Yet, it is challenging to persuasively validate a CoP, because a prognostic immune marker can fail as a reliable basis for predicting/inferring the level of vaccine efficacy against a clinical outcome, and because the statistical analysis of phase 3 trials only has limited capacity to disentangle association from cause. Moreover, the multitude of statistical methods garnered for CoP evaluation in phase 3 trials renders the comparison, interpretation, and synthesis of CoP results challenging. Toward promoting broader harmonization and standardization of CoP evaluation, this article summarizes four complementary statistical frameworks for evaluating CoPs in a phase 3 trial, focusing on the frameworks' distinct scientific objectives as measured and communicated by distinct causal vaccine efficacy parameters. Advantages and disadvantages of the frameworks are considered, dependent on phase 3 trial context, and perspectives are offered on how the frameworks can be applied and their results synthesized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ying Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD, USA
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4
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Reeves DB, Mayer BT, deCamp AC, Huang Y, Zhang B, Carpp LN, Magaret CA, Juraska M, Gilbert PB, Montefiori DC, Bar KJ, Cardozo-Ojeda EF, Schiffer JT, Rossenkhan R, Edlefsen P, Morris L, Mkhize NN, Williamson C, Mullins JI, Seaton KE, Tomaras GD, Andrew P, Mgodi N, Ledgerwood JE, Cohen MS, Corey L, Naidoo L, Orrell C, Goepfert PA, Casapia M, Sobieszczyk ME, Karuna ST, Edupuganti S. Author Correction: High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2575. [PMID: 38519455 PMCID: PMC10959920 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46805-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/25/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel B Reeves
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Bryan T Mayer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Allan C deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bo Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Craig A Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Katharine J Bar
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - E Fabian Cardozo-Ojeda
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joshua T Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Nonhlanhla N Mkhize
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - James I Mullins
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kelly E Seaton
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Departments of Surgery, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Georgia D Tomaras
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Departments of Surgery, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | | | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- Clinical Trials Research Centre, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Julie E Ledgerwood
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Catherine Orrell
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine and Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Martin Casapia
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peru, Iquitos, Peru
| | - Magdalena E Sobieszczyk
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Shelly T Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- GreenLight Biosciences, Medford, MA, USA
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
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5
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Erdmann NB, Williams WB, Walsh SR, Grunenberg N, Edlefsen PT, Goepfert PA, Cain DW, Cohen KW, Maenza J, Mayer KH, Tieu HV, Sobieszczyk ME, Swann E, Lu H, De Rosa SC, Sagawa Z, Moody MA, Fox CB, Ferrari G, Edwards R, Acharya P, Alam S, Parks R, Barr M, Tomaras GD, Montefiori DC, Gilbert PB, McElrath MJ, Corey L, Haynes BF, Baden LR. A HIV-1 Gp41 Peptide-Liposome Vaccine Elicits Neutralizing Epitope-Targeted Antibody Responses in Healthy Individuals. medRxiv 2024:2024.03.15.24304305. [PMID: 38562833 PMCID: PMC10984077 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.15.24304305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Background HIV-1 vaccine development is a global health priority. Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) which target the HIV-1 gp41 membrane-proximal external region (MPER) have some of the highest neutralization breadth. An MPER peptide-liposome vaccine has been found to expand bnAb precursors in monkeys. Methods The HVTN133 phase 1 clinical trial (NCT03934541) studied the MPER-peptide liposome immunogen in 24 HIV-1 seronegative individuals. Participants were recruited between 15 July 2019 and 18 October 2019 and were randomized in a dose-escalation design to either 500 mcg or 2000 mcg of the MPER-peptide liposome or placebo. Four intramuscular injections were planned at months 0, 2, 6, and 12. Results The trial was stopped prematurely due to an anaphylaxis reaction in one participant ultimately attributed to vaccine-associated polyethylene glycol. The immunogen induced robust immune responses, including MPER+ serum and blood CD4+ T-cell responses in 95% and 100% of vaccinees, respectively, and 35% (7/20) of vaccine recipients had blood IgG memory B cells with MPER-bnAb binding phenotype. Affinity purification of plasma MPER+ IgG demonstrated tier 2 HIV-1 neutralizing activity in two of five participants after 3 immunizations. Conclusions MPER-peptide liposomes induced gp41 serum neutralizing epitope-targeted antibodies and memory B-cell responses in humans despite the early termination of the study. These results suggest that the MPER region is a promising target for a candidate HIV vaccine.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Wilton B. Williams
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - Stephen R. Walsh
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Nicole Grunenberg
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Paul T. Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | | | - Derek W. Cain
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - Kristen W. Cohen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Janine Maenza
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | | | - Hong Van Tieu
- New York Blood Center, New York, NY
- Columbia University, New York, NY
| | | | - Edith Swann
- Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Immunology, Bethesda, MD
| | - Huiyin Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Stephen C. De Rosa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | | | - M. Anthony Moody
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Pediatrics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | | | - Guido Ferrari
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - R.J. Edwards
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - Priyamvada Acharya
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - S.Munir Alam
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - Robert Parks
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Margaret Barr
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Georgia D. Tomaras
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | - M. Juliana McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Barton F. Haynes
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC
- Department of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
| | - Lindsey R. Baden
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
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6
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Magaret CA, Li L, deCamp AC, Rolland M, Juraska M, Williamson BD, Ludwig J, Molitor C, Benkeser D, Luedtke A, Simpkins B, Heng F, Sun Y, Carpp LN, Bai H, Dearlove BL, Giorgi EE, Jongeneelen M, Brandenburg B, McCallum M, Bowen JE, Veesler D, Sadoff J, Gray GE, Roels S, Vandebosch A, Stieh DJ, Le Gars M, Vingerhoets J, Grinsztejn B, Goepfert PA, de Sousa LP, Silva MST, Casapia M, Losso MH, Little SJ, Gaur A, Bekker LG, Garrett N, Truyers C, Van Dromme I, Swann E, Marovich MA, Follmann D, Neuzil KM, Corey L, Greninger AL, Roychoudhury P, Hyrien O, Gilbert PB. Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2175. [PMID: 38467646 PMCID: PMC10928100 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46536-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024] Open
Abstract
In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Craig A Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Li Li
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Allan C deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Morgane Rolland
- US Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Brian D Williamson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Biostatistics Division, Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - James Ludwig
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Cindy Molitor
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Departments of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Alex Luedtke
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Brian Simpkins
- Department of Computer Science, Pitzer College, Claremont, CA, USA
| | - Fei Heng
- University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Yanqing Sun
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hongjun Bai
- US Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Bethany L Dearlove
- US Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Elena E Giorgi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mandy Jongeneelen
- Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Boerries Brandenburg
- Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Matthew McCallum
- Department of Biochemistry, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John E Bowen
- Department of Biochemistry, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David Veesler
- Department of Biochemistry, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Glenda E Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Sanne Roels
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - An Vandebosch
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Daniel J Stieh
- Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Mathieu Le Gars
- Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Johan Vingerhoets
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Leonardo Paiva de Sousa
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Mayara Secco Torres Silva
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Martin Casapia
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peru, Iquitos, Peru
| | - Marcelo H Losso
- Hospital General de Agudos José María Ramos Mejia, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Susan J Little
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Aditya Gaur
- Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA
| | - Linda-Gail Bekker
- The Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nigel Garrett
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Carla Truyers
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Ilse Van Dromme
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Edith Swann
- Vaccine Research Program, Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mary A Marovich
- Vaccine Research Program, Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Alexander L Greninger
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biochemistry, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Pavitra Roychoudhury
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biochemistry, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ollivier Hyrien
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA.
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7
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Juraska M, Bai H, deCamp AC, Magaret CA, Li L, Gillespie K, Carpp LN, Giorgi EE, Ludwig J, Molitor C, Hudson A, Williamson BD, Espy N, Simpkins B, Rudnicki E, Shao D, Rossenkhan R, Edlefsen PT, Westfall DH, Deng W, Chen L, Zhao H, Bhattacharya T, Pankow A, Murrell B, Yssel A, Matten D, York T, Beaume N, Gwashu-Nyangiwe A, Ndabambi N, Thebus R, Karuna ST, Morris L, Montefiori DC, Hural JA, Cohen MS, Corey L, Rolland M, Gilbert PB, Williamson C, Mullins JI. Prevention efficacy of the broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01 depends on HIV-1 envelope sequence features. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2308942121. [PMID: 38241441 PMCID: PMC10823214 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2308942121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/21/2024] Open
Abstract
In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081), prevention efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 (vs. placebo) against HIV-1 acquisition diagnosis varied according to the HIV-1 Envelope (Env) neutralization sensitivity to VRC01, as measured by 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80). Here, we performed a genotypic sieve analysis, a complementary approach to gaining insight into correlates of protection that assesses how PE varies with HIV-1 sequence features. We analyzed HIV-1 Env amino acid (AA) sequences from the earliest available HIV-1 RNA-positive plasma samples from AMP participants diagnosed with HIV-1 and identified Env sequence features that associated with PE. The strongest Env AA sequence correlate in both trials was VRC01 epitope distance that quantifies the divergence of the VRC01 epitope in an acquired HIV-1 isolate from the VRC01 epitope of reference HIV-1 strains that were most sensitive to VRC01-mediated neutralization. In HVTN 704/HPTN 085, the Env sequence-based predicted probability that VRC01 IC80 against the acquired isolate exceeded 1 µg/mL also significantly associated with PE. In HVTN 703/HPTN 081, a physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance across 50 VRC01 binding-associated Env AA positions of the acquired isolate from the most VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 strain significantly associated with PE. These results suggest that incorporating mutation scoring by BLOSUM62 and weighting by the strength of interactions at AA positions in the epitope:VRC01 interface can optimize performance of an Env sequence-based biomarker of VRC01 prevention efficacy. Future work could determine whether these results extend to other bnAbs and bnAb combinations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Hongjun Bai
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD20910
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Bethesda, MD20817
| | - Allan C. deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Craig A. Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Li Li
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Kevin Gillespie
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Elena E. Giorgi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - James Ludwig
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Cindy Molitor
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Aaron Hudson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Brian D. Williamson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
- Biostatistics Division, Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA98101
| | - Nicole Espy
- Science and Technology Policy Fellowships, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC20005
| | - Brian Simpkins
- Department of Computer Science, Pitzer College, Claremont, CA91711
| | - Erika Rudnicki
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Danica Shao
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Paul T. Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Dylan H. Westfall
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA98195
| | - Wenjie Deng
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA98195
| | - Lennie Chen
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA98195
| | - Hong Zhao
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA98195
| | | | - Alec Pankow
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor, and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solna171 77, Sweden
| | - Ben Murrell
- Department of Microbiology, Tumor, and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Solna171 77, Sweden
| | - Anna Yssel
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - David Matten
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - Talita York
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - Nicolas Beaume
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - Asanda Gwashu-Nyangiwe
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - Nonkululeko Ndabambi
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - Ruwayhida Thebus
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - Shelly T. Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Lynn Morris
- HIV Virology Section, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg2192, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg2000, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban4041, South Africa
| | | | - John A. Hural
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Myron S. Cohen
- Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC27599
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA98195
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA98195
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA98109
| | - Morgane Rolland
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD20910
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Bethesda, MD20817
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA98109
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA98195
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA98195
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town7701, South Africa
| | - James I. Mullins
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA98195
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA98195
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA98109
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8
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Donnell D, Kansiime S, Glidden DV, Luedtke A, Gilbert PB, Gao F, Janes H. Study design approaches for future active-controlled HIV prevention trials. Stat Commun Infect Dis 2024; 15:20230002. [PMID: 38250627 PMCID: PMC10798828 DOI: 10.1515/scid-2023-0002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/23/2024]
Abstract
Objectives Vigorous discussions are ongoing about future efficacy trial designs of candidate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention interventions. The study design challenges of HIV prevention interventions are considerable given rapid evolution of the prevention landscape and evidence of multiple modalities of highly effective products; future trials will likely be 'active-controlled', i.e., not include a placebo arm. Thus, novel design approaches are needed to accurately assess new interventions against these highly effective active controls. Methods To discuss active control design challenges and identify solutions, an initial virtual workshop series was hosted and supported by the International AIDS Enterprise (October 2020-March 2021). Subsequent symposia discussions continue to advance these efforts. As the non-inferiority design is an important conceptual reference design for guiding active control trials, we adopt several of its principles in our proposed design approaches. Results We discuss six potential study design approaches for formally evaluating absolute prevention efficacy given data from an active-controlled HIV prevention trial including using data from: 1) a registrational cohort, 2) recency assays, 3) an external trial placebo arm, 4) a biomarker of HIV incidence/exposure, 5) an anti-retroviral drug concentration as a mediator of prevention efficacy, and 6) immune biomarkers as a mediator of prevention efficacy. Conclusions Our understanding of these proposed novel approaches to future trial designs remains incomplete and there are many future statistical research needs. Yet, each of these approaches, within the context of an active-controlled trial, have the potential to yield reliable evidence of efficacy for future biomedical interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah Donnell
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sheila Kansiime
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Council and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
- Medical Research Council International Statistics and Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Fei Gao
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Holly Janes
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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9
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Williamson BD, Wu L, Huang Y, Hudson A, Gilbert PB. Predicting neutralization susceptibility to combination HIV-1 monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody regimens. bioRxiv 2023:2023.12.14.571616. [PMID: 38168308 PMCID: PMC10760080 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.14.571616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are currently being developed for preventing HIV-1 infection. Recent work has focused on predicting in vitro neutralization potency of both individual bnAbs and combination regimens against HIV-1 pseudoviruses using Env sequence features. To predict in vitro combination regimen neutralization potency against a given HIV-1 pseudovirus, previous approaches have applied mathematical models to combine individual-bnAb neutralization and have predicted this combined neutralization value; we call this the combine-then-predict (CP) approach. However, prediction performance for some individual bnAbs has exceeded that for the combination, leading to another possibility: combining the individual-bnAb predicted values and using these to predict combination regimen neutralization; we call this the predict-then-combine (PC) approach. We explore both approaches in both simulated data and data from the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Compile, Neutralize, and Tally NAb Panels repository. The CP approach is superior to the PC approach when the neutralization outcome of interest is binary (e.g., neutralization susceptibility, defined as inhibitory concentration < 1 μg/mL. For continuous outcomes, the CP approach performs at least as well as the PC approach, and is superior to the PC approach when the individual-bnAb prediction algorithms have poor performance. This knowledge may be used when building prediction models for novel antibody combinations in the absence of in vitro neutralization data for the antibody combination; this, in turn, will aid in the evaluation and down-selection of these antibody combinations into prevention efficacy trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian D. Williamson
- Biostatistics Division, Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Liana Wu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Aaron Hudson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
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10
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Reeves DB, Mayer BT, deCamp AC, Huang Y, Zhang B, Carpp LN, Magaret CA, Juraska M, Gilbert PB, Montefiori DC, Bar KJ, Cardozo-Ojeda EF, Schiffer JT, Rossenkhan R, Edlefsen P, Morris L, Mkhize NN, Williamson C, Mullins JI, Seaton KE, Tomaras GD, Andrew P, Mgodi N, Ledgerwood JE, Cohen MS, Corey L, Naidoo L, Orrell C, Goepfert PA, Casapia M, Sobieszczyk ME, Karuna ST, Edupuganti S. High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8299. [PMID: 38097552 PMCID: PMC10721814 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43384-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel B Reeves
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Bryan T Mayer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Allan C deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bo Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Craig A Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Katharine J Bar
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - E Fabian Cardozo-Ojeda
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joshua T Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Nonhlanhla N Mkhize
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - James I Mullins
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kelly E Seaton
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Departments of Surgery, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Georgia D Tomaras
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Departments of Surgery, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | | | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- Clinical Trials Research Centre, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Julie E Ledgerwood
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Catherine Orrell
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine and Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Martin Casapia
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peru, Iquitos, Peru
| | - Magdalena E Sobieszczyk
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Shelly T Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- GreenLight Biosciences, Medford, MA, USA
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
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11
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Ning X, Pan Y, Sun Y, Gilbert PB. A semiparametric Cox-Aalen transformation model with censored data. Biometrics 2023; 79:3111-3125. [PMID: 37403227 PMCID: PMC10764654 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 07/06/2023]
Abstract
We propose a broad class of so-called Cox-Aalen transformation models that incorporate both multiplicative and additive covariate effects on the baseline hazard function within a transformation. The proposed models provide a highly flexible and versatile class of semiparametric models that include the transformation models and the Cox-Aalen model as special cases. Specifically, it extends the transformation models by allowing potentially time-dependent covariates to work additively on the baseline hazard and extends the Cox-Aalen model through a predetermined transformation function. We propose an estimating equation approach and devise an expectation-solving (ES) algorithm that involves fast and robust calculations. The resulting estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal via modern empirical process techniques. The ES algorithm yields a computationally simple method for estimating the variance of both parametric and nonparametric estimators. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our procedures through extensive simulation studies and applications in two randomized, placebo-controlled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention efficacy trials. The data example shows the utility of the proposed Cox-Aalen transformation models in enhancing statistical power for discovering covariate effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xi Ning
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A
| | - Yinghao Pan
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A
| | - Yanqing Sun
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S.A
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences Divisions, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A
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12
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Hejazi NS, Shen X, Carpp LN, Benkeser D, Follmann D, Janes HE, Baden LR, El Sahly HM, Deng W, Zhou H, Leav B, Montefiori DC, Gilbert PB. Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial. Int J Infect Dis 2023; 137:28-39. [PMID: 37820782 PMCID: PMC10841741 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis is a new approach to correlate of protection (CoP) analysis of a phase III trial that estimates how vaccine efficacy (VE) would change under hypothetical shifts of an immune marker. METHODS We applied nonparametric SVE methodology to the COVE trial of messenger RNA-1273 vs placebo to evaluate post-dose 2 pseudovirus neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against the D614G strain as a CoP against COVID-19. Secondly, we evaluated the ability of these results to predict VE against variants based on shifts of geometric mean titers to variants vs D614G. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by 13 validation studies, including 12 test-negative designs. RESULTS SVE analysis of COVE supported post-dose 2 D614G titer as a CoP: estimated VE ranged from 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 36.2, 82.8%) to 99.3% (99.1, 99.4%) at 10-fold decreased or increased titer shifts, respectively. The SVE estimates only weakly predicted variant-specific VE estimates (concordance correlation coefficient 0.062 for post 2-dose VE). CONCLUSION SVE analysis of COVE supports nAb titer as a CoP for messenger RNA vaccines. Predicting variant-specific VE proved difficult due to many limitations. Greater anti-Omicron titers may be needed for high-level protection against Omicron vs anti-D614G titers needed for high-level protection against pre-Omicron COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nima S Hejazi
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Xiaoying Shen
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - Holly E Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Lindsey R Baden
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Harvard Medical School, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Hana M El Sahly
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, USA
| | - Weiping Deng
- Infectious Disease Development, Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, USA
| | - Honghong Zhou
- Infectious Disease Development, Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, USA
| | - Brett Leav
- Infectious Disease Development, Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, USA
| | - David C Montefiori
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
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13
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Huang Y, Zhang L, Karuna S, Andrew P, Juraska M, Weiner JA, Angier H, Morgan E, Azzam Y, Swann E, Edupuganti S, Mgodi NM, Ackerman ME, Donnell D, Gama L, Anderson PL, Koup RA, Hural J, Cohen MS, Corey L, McElrath MJ, Gilbert PB, Lemos MP. Adults on pre-exposure prophylaxis (tenofovir-emtricitabine) have faster clearance of anti-HIV monoclonal antibody VRC01. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7813. [PMID: 38016958 PMCID: PMC10684488 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43399-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are being developed for HIV-1 prevention. Hence, these mAbs and licensed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) (tenofovir-emtricitabine) can be concomitantly administered in clinical trials. In 48 US participants (men and transgender persons who have sex with men) who received the HIV-1 mAb VRC01 and remained HIV-free in an antibody-mediated-prevention trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT02716675), we conduct a post-hoc analysis and find that VRC01 clearance is 0.08 L/day faster (p = 0.005), and dose-normalized area-under-the-curve of VRC01 serum concentration over-time is 0.29 day/mL lower (p < 0.001) in PrEP users (n = 24) vs. non-PrEP users (n = 24). Consequently, PrEP users are predicted to have 14% lower VRC01 neutralization-mediated prevention efficacy against circulating HIV-1 strains. VRC01 clearance is positively associated (r = 0.33, p = 0.03) with levels of serum intestinal Fatty Acid Binding protein (I-FABP), a marker of epithelial intestinal permeability, which is elevated upon starting PrEP (p = 0.04) and after months of self-reported use (p = 0.001). These findings have implications for the evaluation of future HIV-1 mAbs and postulate a potential mechanism for mAb clearance in the context of PrEP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA.
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98196, USA.
| | - Lily Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Shelly Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | | | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Joshua A Weiner
- Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
| | - Heather Angier
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Evgenii Morgan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Yasmin Azzam
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Edith Swann
- Vaccine Research Program, Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health (NIH), Rockville, MD, 46340, USA
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Nyaradzo M Mgodi
- University of Zimbabwe Clinical Trials Research Centre, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Deborah Donnell
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Lucio Gama
- Vaccine Research Center (VRC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Peter L Anderson
- Colorado Antiviral Pharmacology Laboratory and Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Skaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Colorado-AMC, Aurora, CO, 80045, USA
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center (VRC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - John Hural
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
- Departments of Medicine and Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - M Juliana McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98196, USA
- Departments of Medicine and Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Maria P Lemos
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
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14
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Juraska M, Early AM, Li L, Schaffner SF, Lievens M, Khorgade A, Simpkins B, Hejazi NS, Benkeser DA, Wang Q, Mercer LD, Adjei S, Agbenyega T, Anderson S, Ansong D, Bii DK, Buabeng PBY, English S, Fitzgerald N, Grimsby J, Kariuki SK, Otieno K, Roman F, Samuels AM, Westercamp N, Ockenhouse CF, Ofori-Anyinam O, Lee CK, MacInnis BL, Wirth DF, Gilbert PB, Neafsey DE. Baseline malaria infection status and RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine efficacy. medRxiv 2023:2023.11.22.23298907. [PMID: 38045387 PMCID: PMC10690350 DOI: 10.1101/2023.11.22.23298907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2023]
Abstract
Background The only licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01 E , confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy (VE). Methods 1,500 children aged 5-17 months were randomized to receive four different RTS,S/AS01 E regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods in over 36K participant specimens. We performed a post hoc analysis of VE based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection. Results We observed significant and comparable VE (25-43%, 95% CI union 9-53%) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01 E regimens across both follow-up periods (12 and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01 E regimen significantly reduced the number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period (control mean 4.1 vs. RTS,S/AS01 E mean 2.6-3.0). VE against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were malaria-infected (68%; 95% CI, 50 to 80%) versus uninfected (37%; 95% CI, 23 to 48%) at the first vaccination (P=0.0053) and in participants experiencing greater force of infection between dose 1 and 3 (P=0.059). Conclusions All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved VE in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. ( ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03276962 ).
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15
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Ciani O, Manyara AM, Davies P, Stewart D, Weir CJ, Young AE, Blazeby J, Butcher NJ, Bujkiewicz S, Chan AW, Dawoud D, Offringa M, Ouwens M, Hróbjartssson A, Amstutz A, Bertolaccini L, Bruno VD, Devane D, Faria CD, Gilbert PB, Harris R, Lassere M, Marinelli L, Markham S, Powers JH, Rezaei Y, Richert L, Schwendicke F, Tereshchenko LG, Thoma A, Turan A, Worrall A, Christensen R, Collins GS, Ross JS, Taylor RS. A framework for the definition and interpretation of the use of surrogate endpoints in interventional trials. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 65:102283. [PMID: 37877001 PMCID: PMC10590868 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Revised: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Interventional trials that evaluate treatment effects using surrogate endpoints have become increasingly common. This paper describes four linked empirical studies and the development of a framework for defining, interpreting and reporting surrogate endpoints in trials. Methods As part of developing the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) and SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) extensions for randomised trials reporting surrogate endpoints, we undertook a scoping review, e-Delphi study, consensus meeting, and a web survey to examine current definitions and stakeholder (including clinicians, trial investigators, patients and public partners, journal editors, and health technology experts) interpretations of surrogate endpoints as primary outcome measures in trials. Findings Current surrogate endpoint definitional frameworks are inconsistent and unclear. Surrogate endpoints are used in trials as a substitute of the treatment effects of an intervention on the target outcome(s) of ultimate interest, events measuring how patients feel, function, or survive. Traditionally the consideration of surrogate endpoints in trials has focused on biomarkers (e.g., HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, tumour response), especially in the medical product regulatory setting. Nevertheless, the concept of surrogacy in trials is potentially broader. Intermediate outcomes that include a measure of function or symptoms (e.g., angina frequency, exercise tolerance) can also be used as substitute for target outcomes (e.g., all-cause mortality)-thereby acting as surrogate endpoints. However, we found a lack of consensus among stakeholders on accepting and interpreting intermediate outcomes in trials as surrogate endpoints or target outcomes. In our assessment, patients and health technology assessment experts appeared more likely to consider intermediate outcomes to be surrogate endpoints than clinicians and regulators. Interpretation There is an urgent need for better understanding and reporting on the use of surrogate endpoints, especially in the setting of interventional trials. We provide a framework for the definition of surrogate endpoints (biomarkers and intermediate outcomes) and target outcomes in trials to improve future reporting and aid stakeholders' interpretation and use of trial surrogate endpoint evidence. Funding SPIRIT-SURROGATE/CONSORT-SURROGATE project is Medical Research Council Better Research Better Health (MR/V038400/1) funded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oriana Ciani
- Centre for Research on Health and Social Care Management, SDA Bocconi School of Management, Milan, Italy
| | - Anthony M. Manyara
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Philippa Davies
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - Christopher J. Weir
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Jane Blazeby
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK
- University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
| | - Nancy J. Butcher
- Child Health Evaluative Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children Research Institute, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - An-Wen Chan
- Women's College Research Institute, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Dalia Dawoud
- Science, Evidence and Analytics Directorate, Science Policy and Research Programme, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, London, UK
| | - Martin Offringa
- Child Health Evaluative Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children Research Institute, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Asbjørn Hróbjartssson
- Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Odense (CEBMO) and Cochrane Denmark, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
- Open Patient Data Explorative Network (OPEN), Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Alain Amstutz
- CLEAR Methods Center, Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Clinical Research, University Hospital Basel and University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Luca Bertolaccini
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, IEO, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Vito Domenico Bruno
- Department of Minimally Invasive Cardiac Surgery, IRCCS Galeazzi – Sant’Ambrogio Hospital, Milan, Italy
| | - Declan Devane
- University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
- Health Research Board-Trials Methodology Research Network, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Christina D.C.M. Faria
- Department of Physical Therapy, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Ray Harris
- Patient and Public Involvement Partner, UK
| | - Marissa Lassere
- St George Hospital and School of Population Health, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Lucio Marinelli
- Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genova, Genoa, Italy
- IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genoa, Italy
| | - Sarah Markham
- Department of Biostatistics, King's College London, London, UK
| | - John H. Powers
- George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, USA
| | - Yousef Rezaei
- Heart Valve Disease Research Center, Rajaie Cardiovascular Medical and Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Ardabil University of Medical Sciences, Ardabil, Iran
- Behyan Clinic, Pardis New Town, Tehran, Iran
| | - Laura Richert
- University Bordeaux, INSERM, Institut Bergonié, CHU Bordeaux, BPH U1219, CIC-EC 1401, RECaP and Euclid/F-CRIN, Bordeaux, France
| | | | - Larisa G. Tereshchenko
- Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Lerner Research Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | | | - Alparslan Turan
- Department of Outcomes Research, Anesthesiology Institute, Cleveland Clinic, OH, USA
| | | | - Robin Christensen
- Section for Biostatistics and Evidence-Based Research, The Parker Institute, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, Copenhagen & Research Unit of Rheumatology, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Gary S. Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology & Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Joseph S. Ross
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Section of General Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rod S. Taylor
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Gilbert PB, Fong Y, Kenny A, Carone M. A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection. Biostatistics 2023; 24:850-865. [PMID: 37850938 PMCID: PMC10583729 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxac024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Revised: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 10/19/2023] Open
Abstract
An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, 1100 Fairview Ave N, PO Box 19024 Seattle, WA 98109, USA and University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics, Hans Rosling Center for Population Health, 3980 15th Avenue NE, Box 351617 Seattle, WA 98195-1617, USA
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17
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Antkowiak L, Boynton-Jarrett R, Chiang SS, Castellon D, Gilbert PB, Juraska M, Sox CM, Huang CC. Violence Exposure Among Women in the Sex Industry and Their Children in El Alto, Bolivia: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study. Violence Vict 2023; 38:736-753. [PMID: 37827582 DOI: 10.1891/vv-2021-0002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2023]
Abstract
We conducted a comparative cross-sectional study to compare the prevalence of exposure to workplace violence and intimate partner violence (IPV) in 125 female sex workers (FSWs) and 125 age-matched control women working in other professions (non-FSWs) and their children in El Alto, Bolivia. Violence exposure was assessed using the Demographic Health Survey Domestic Violence Module. To determine associations between work type and violence exposure, we conducted multivariate logistic regression. One-third of working mothers experienced sexual IPV, regardless of their profession. FSWs experienced higher rates of severe physical IPV and workplace violence. Children of FSWs were approximately three times more likely to be exposed to violence in the workplace. In Bolivia, strategies to reduce exposure to violence within the home and in FSW workplaces are paramount to minimizing negative impacts on women and their children. These findings have implications for policies to improve education, living wages, and social interventions to prevent and mitigate violence against women and children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lara Antkowiak
- Division of General Academic Pediatrics, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
- Martha Eliot Family Health Center, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Silvia S Chiang
- Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
- Center for International Health, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, RI, USA
| | | | - Peter B Gilbert
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Colin M Sox
- Division of General Academic Pediatrics, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Chi-Cheng Huang
- Advocate Health Southeast Region, Section of Hospital Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston Salem, NC, USA
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18
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Rick AM, Laurens MB, Huang Y, Yu C, Martin TCS, Rodriguez CA, Rostad CA, Maboa RM, Baden LR, El Sahly HM, Grinsztejn B, Gray GE, Gay CL, Gilbert PB, Janes HE, Kublin JG, Huang Y, Leav B, Hirsch I, Struyf F, Dunkle LM, Neuzil KM, Corey L, Goepfert PA, Walsh SR, Follmann D, Kotloff KL. Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination. EBioMedicine 2023; 96:104799. [PMID: 37738833 PMCID: PMC10518569 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Revised: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. METHODS In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. FINDINGS Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. INTERPRETATION Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. FUNDING National Institutes of Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne-Marie Rick
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
| | - Matthew B Laurens
- Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Ying Huang
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Thomas C S Martin
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Carina A Rodriguez
- Morsani College of Medicine, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Christina A Rostad
- Department of Pediatrics, Center for Childhood Infections and Vaccines, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta and Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | | | | | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Glenda E Gray
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Cynthia L Gay
- University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | | | | | | | - Yunda Huang
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Ian Hirsch
- AstraZeneca BioPharmaceuticals, Cambridge, UK
| | | | | | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Paul A Goepfert
- University of Alabama at Birmingham Heersink School of Medicine, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Stephen R Walsh
- Brigham & Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
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19
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Huang Y, Hejazi NS, Blette B, Carpp LN, Benkeser D, Montefiori DC, McDermott AB, Fong Y, Janes HE, Deng W, Zhou H, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Flach B, Lin BC, O’Connell S, McDanal C, Eaton A, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Lu Y, Yu C, Kenny A, Carone M, Huynh C, Miller J, El Sahly HM, Baden LR, Jackson LA, Campbell TB, Clark J, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Pajon R, Follmann D, Donis RO, Koup RA, Gilbert PB. Stochastic Interventional Vaccine Efficacy and Principal Surrogate Analyses of Antibody Markers as Correlates of Protection against Symptomatic COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 Trial. Viruses 2023; 15:2029. [PMID: 37896806 PMCID: PMC10612023 DOI: 10.3390/v15102029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
| | - Nima S. Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Bryan Blette
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA;
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA;
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Adrian B. McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Holly E. Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Weiping Deng
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Honghong Zhou
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Christopher R. Houchens
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Lakshmi Jayashankar
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Bob C. Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Sarah O’Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Charlene McDanal
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Amanda Eaton
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
| | - Chuong Huynh
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Jacqueline Miller
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Hana M. El Sahly
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA;
| | | | - Lisa A. Jackson
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA 98101, USA;
| | - Thomas B. Campbell
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO 80045, USA;
| | - Jesse Clark
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA;
| | - Michele P. Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - James G. Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Kathleen M. Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA;
| | - Rolando Pajon
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA;
| | - Ruben O. Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Richard A. Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
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20
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Williamson BD, Magaret CA, Karuna S, Carpp LN, Gelderblom HC, Huang Y, Benkeser D, Gilbert PB. Application of the SLAPNAP statistical learning tool to broadly neutralizing antibody HIV prevention research. iScience 2023; 26:107595. [PMID: 37654470 PMCID: PMC10466901 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) regimens are in clinical development for HIV prevention, necessitating additional knowledge of bnAb neutralization potency/breadth against circulating viruses. Williamson et al. (2021) described a software tool, Super LeArner Prediction of NAb Panels (SLAPNAP), with application to any HIV bnAb regimen with sufficient neutralization data against a set of viruses in the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Compile, Neutralize, and Tally Nab Panels repository. SLAPNAP produces a proteomic antibody resistance (PAR) score for Env sequences based on predicted neutralization resistance and estimates variable importance of Env amino acid features. We apply SLAPNAP to compare HIV bnAb regimens undergoing clinical testing, finding improved power for downstream sieve analyses and increased precision for comparing neutralization potency/breadth of bnAb regimens due to the inclusion of PAR scores of Env sequences with much larger sample sizes available than for neutralization outcomes. SLAPNAP substantially improves bnAb regimen characterization, ranking, and down-selection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian D. Williamson
- Biostatistics Division; Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA 98101, USA
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Craig A. Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Shelly Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- GreenLight Biosciences, Medford, MA 02155, USA
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Huub C. Gelderblom
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Global Health; University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics; Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics; University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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21
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Turley CB, Tables L, Fuller T, Sanders LJ, Scott H, Moodley A, Woodward Davis A, Leav B, Miller J, Schoemaker K, Vandebosch A, Sadoff J, Woo W, Cho I, Dunkle LM, Li S, van der Laan L, Gilbert PB, Follmann D, Jaynes H, Kublin JG, Baden LR, Goepfert P, Kotloff K, Gay CL, Falsey AR, El Sahly HM, Sobieszczyk ME, Huang Y, Neuzil KM, Corey L, Grinsztejn B, Gray G, Rouphael N, Luedtke A. Modifiers of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy: Results from four COVID-19 prevention network efficacy trials. Vaccine 2023; 41:4899-4906. [PMID: 37385888 PMCID: PMC10288314 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.06.066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
Questions remain regarding the effect of baseline host and exposure factors on vaccine efficacy (VE) across pathogens and vaccine platforms. We report placebo-controlled data from four Phase 3 COVID-19 trials during the early period of the pandemic. This was a cross-protocol analysis of four randomized, placebo-controlled efficacy trials (Moderna/mRNA1273, AstraZeneca/AZD1222, Janssen/Ad26.COV2.S, and Novavax/NVX-CoV2373) using a harmonized design. Trials were conducted in the United States and international sites in adults ≥ 18 years of age. VE was assessed for symptomatic and severe COVID-19. We analyzed 114,480 participants from both placebo and vaccine arms, enrolled July 2020 to February 2021, with follow up through July 2021. VE against symptomatic COVID-19 showed little heterogeneity across baseline socio-demographic, clinical or exposure characteristics, in either univariate or multivariate analysis, regardless of vaccine platform. Similarly, VE against severe COVID-19 in the single trial (Janssen) with sufficient endpoints for analysis showed little evidence of heterogeneity. COVID-19 VE is not influenced by baseline host or exposure characteristics across efficacy trials of different vaccine platforms and countries when well matched to circulating virus strains. This supports use of these vaccines, regardless of platform type, as effective tools in the near term for reducing symptomatic and severe COVID-19, particularly for older individuals and those with common co-morbidities during major variant shifts. Clinical trial registration numbers: NCT04470427, NCT04516746, NCT04505722, and NCT04611802.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine B Turley
- Atrium Health Wake Forest School of Medicine, Charlotte, NC, United States
| | - LaKesha Tables
- Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Trevon Fuller
- Infectious Diseases Department, Hospital Federal dos Servidores do Estado, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Lisa J Sanders
- University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine, Tampa, FL, United States
| | - Hyman Scott
- San Francisco Department of Public Health, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Amaran Moodley
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California San Diego and Rady Children's Hospital, San Diego, CA, United States
| | - Amanda Woodward Davis
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Brett Leav
- Moderna Inc., Cambridge, MA, United States
| | | | - Kathryn Schoemaker
- Biometrics, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
| | - An Vandebosch
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Wayne Woo
- Novavax, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
| | - Iksung Cho
- Novavax, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
| | | | - Sijia Li
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Lars van der Laan
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
| | - Holly Jaynes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, United States
| | | | - Paul Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, United States
| | - Karen Kotloff
- Division of Infectious Disease and Tropical Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, and the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Cynthia L Gay
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, UNC HIV Cure Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
| | - Ann R Falsey
- Department of Medicine, Infectious Disease Division, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, United States
| | - Hana M El Sahly
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology and Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
| | - Magdalena E Sobieszczyk
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Division of Infectious Disease and Tropical Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, and the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Glenda Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Alex Luedtke
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
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22
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Theodore DA, Branche AR, Zhang L, Graciaa DS, Choudhary M, Hatlen TJ, Osman R, Babu TM, Robinson ST, Gilbert PB, Follmann D, Janes H, Kublin JG, Baden LR, Goepfert P, Gray GE, Grinsztejn B, Kotloff KL, Gay CL, Leav B, Miller J, Hirsch I, Sadoff J, Dunkle LM, Neuzil KM, Corey L, Falsey AR, El Sahly HM, Sobieszczyk ME, Huang Y. Clinical and Demographic Factors Associated With COVID-19, Severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Adults: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e2323349. [PMID: 37440227 PMCID: PMC10346130 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.23349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance Current data identifying COVID-19 risk factors lack standardized outcomes and insufficiently control for confounders. Objective To identify risk factors associated with COVID-19, severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This secondary cross-protocol analysis included 4 multicenter, international, randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials with harmonized protocols established by the COVID-19 Prevention Network. Individual-level data from participants randomized to receive placebo within each trial were combined and analyzed. Enrollment began July 2020 and the last data cutoff was in July 2021. Participants included adults in stable health, at risk for SARS-CoV-2, and assigned to the placebo group within each vaccine trial. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to February 2023. Exposures Comorbid conditions, demographic factors, and SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk at the time of enrollment. Main Outcomes and Measures Coprimary outcomes were COVID-19 and severe COVID-19. Multivariate Cox proportional regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for baseline covariates, accounting for trial, region, and calendar time. Secondary outcomes included severe COVID-19 among people with COVID-19, subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results A total of 57 692 participants (median [range] age, 51 [18-95] years; 11 720 participants [20.3%] aged ≥65 years; 31 058 participants [53.8%] assigned male at birth) were included. The analysis population included 3270 American Indian or Alaska Native participants (5.7%), 7849 Black or African American participants (13.6%), 17 678 Hispanic or Latino participants (30.6%), and 40 745 White participants (70.6%). Annualized incidence was 13.9% (95% CI, 13.3%-14.4%) for COVID-19 and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.2%) for severe COVID-19. Factors associated with increased rates of COVID-19 included workplace exposure (high vs low: aHR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.16-1.58]; medium vs low: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.65]; P < .001) and living condition risk (very high vs low risk: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.66]; medium vs low risk: aHR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.08-1.32]; P < .001). Factors associated with decreased rates of COVID-19 included previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.09-0.19]; P < .001), age 65 years or older (aHR vs age <65 years, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.50-0.64]; P < .001) and Black or African American race (aHR vs White race, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.91]; P = .002). Factors associated with increased rates of severe COVID-19 included race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.85-3.69]; multiracial vs White: aHR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.50-3.20]; P < .001), diabetes (aHR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.14-2.08]; P = .005) and at least 2 comorbidities (aHR vs none, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.09-1.76]; P = .008). In analyses restricted to participants who contracted COVID-19, increased severe COVID-19 rates were associated with age 65 years or older (aHR vs <65 years, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.32-2.31]; P < .001), race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.38-2.83]; Black or African American vs White: aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.03-2.14]; multiracial: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.21-2.69]; overall P = .001), body mass index (aHR per 1-unit increase, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.04]; P = .001), and diabetes (aHR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.37-2.49]; P < .001). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with decreased severe COVID-19 rates (aHR, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.14]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this secondary cross-protocol analysis of 4 randomized clinical trials, exposure and demographic factors had the strongest associations with outcomes; results could inform mitigation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with comparable epidemiological characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah A. Theodore
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York
| | - Angela R. Branche
- Department of Medicine, Infectious Disease Division, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York
| | - Lily Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Daniel S. Graciaa
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Madhu Choudhary
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | | | - Raadhiya Osman
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital, Soweto, South Africa
| | - Tara M. Babu
- Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy & Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Samuel T. Robinson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Holly Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - James G. Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
| | | | - Paul Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham
| | - Glenda E. Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Karen L. Kotloff
- Division of Infectious Disease and Tropical Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore
- Department of Medicine, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore
| | - Cynthia L. Gay
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, UNC HIV Cure Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill
| | | | | | - Ian Hirsch
- AstraZeneca BioPharmaceuticals, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | | | - Kathleen M. Neuzil
- Department of Medicine, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ann R. Falsey
- Department of Medicine, Infectious Disease Division, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York
| | - Hana M. El Sahly
- Infectious Diseases Section, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Magdalena E. Sobieszczyk
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
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23
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Seaton KE, Huang Y, Karuna S, Heptinstall JR, Brackett C, Chiong K, Zhang L, Yates NL, Sampson M, Rudnicki E, Juraska M, deCamp AC, Edlefsen PT, Mullins JI, Williamson C, Rossenkhan R, Giorgi EE, Kenny A, Angier H, Randhawa A, Weiner JA, Rojas M, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Zhang L, Sawant S, Ackerman ME, McDermott AB, Mascola JR, Hural J, McElrath MJ, Andrew P, Hidalgo JA, Clark J, Laher F, Orrell C, Frank I, Gonzales P, Edupuganti S, Mgodi N, Corey L, Morris L, Montefiori D, Cohen MS, Gilbert PB, Tomaras GD. Pharmacokinetic serum concentrations of VRC01 correlate with prevention of HIV-1 acquisition. EBioMedicine 2023; 93:104590. [PMID: 37300931 PMCID: PMC10363420 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Revised: 04/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The phase 2b proof-of-concept Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials showed that VRC01, an anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralising antibody (bnAb), prevented acquisition of HIV-1 sensitive to VRC01. To inform future study design and dosing regimen selection of candidate bnAbs, we investigated the association of VRC01 serum concentration with HIV-1 acquisition using AMP trial data. METHODS The case-control sample included 107 VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1 and 82 VRC01 recipients who remained without HIV-1 during the study. We measured VRC01 serum concentrations with a qualified pharmacokinetic (PK) Binding Antibody Multiplex Assay. We employed nonlinear mixed effects PK modelling to estimate daily-grid VRC01 concentrations. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of VRC01 concentration at exposure and baseline body weight, with the hazard of HIV-1 acquisition and prevention efficacy as a function of VRC01 concentration. We also compared fixed dosing vs. body weight-based dosing via simulations. FINDINGS Estimated VRC01 concentrations in VRC01 recipients without HIV-1 were higher than those in VRC01 recipients who acquired HIV-1. Body weight was inversely associated with HIV-1 acquisition among both placebo and VRC01 recipients but did not modify the prevention efficacy of VRC01. VRC01 concentration was inversely correlated with HIV-1 acquisition, and positively correlated with prevention efficacy of VRC01. Simulation studies suggest that fixed dosing may be comparable to weight-based dosing in overall predicted prevention efficacy. INTERPRETATION These findings suggest that bnAb serum concentration may be a useful marker for dosing regimen selection, and operationally efficient fixed dosing regimens could be considered for future trials of HIV-1 bnAbs. FUNDING Was provided by the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1 AI068614, to the HIV Vaccine Trials Network [HVTN]; UM1 AI068635, to the HVTN Statistical Data and Management Center [SDMC], Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center [FHCC]; 2R37 054165 to the FHCC; UM1 AI068618, to HVTN Laboratory Center, FHCC; UM1 AI068619, to the HPTN Leadership and Operations Center; UM1 AI068613, to the HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] Laboratory Center; UM1 AI068617, to the HPTN SDMC; and P30 AI027757, to the Center for AIDS Research, Duke University (AI P30 AI064518) and University of Washington (P30 AI027757) Centers for AIDS Research; R37AI054165 from NIAID to the FHCC; and OPP1032144 CA-VIMC Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kelly E Seaton
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
| | - Shelly Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Jack R Heptinstall
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Caroline Brackett
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Kelvin Chiong
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Lily Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Nicole L Yates
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Mark Sampson
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Erika Rudnicki
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Allan C deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Paul T Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - James I Mullins
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA; Departments of Microbiology and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Division of Medical Virology, Institute of Infectious Disease & Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, South Africa
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Elena E Giorgi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Heather Angier
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - April Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - Joshua A Weiner
- Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
| | - Michelle Rojas
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Lu Zhang
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Sheetal Sawant
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | | | | | | | - John Hural
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | - M Julianna McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA
| | | | | | - Jesse Clark
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Disease and Department of Family Medicine in the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Fatima Laher
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU), Wits Health Consortium, Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Catherine Orrell
- Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, University of Cape Town (Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, and Department of Medicine), Observatory, 7925, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ian Frank
- Penn Center for AIDS Research, Infectious Disease Division, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Civic Center Boulevard Building 421, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA
| | - Pedro Gonzales
- Asociacion Civil Impacta Salud y Educación, San Miguel Clinical Research Center, Lima, Peru
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- University of Zimbabwe-University of California San Francisco (UZ-UCSF) Collaborative Research Programme, Harare, Zimbabwe, South Africa
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA; Departments of Medicine and Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA; Division of Medical Virology, University of Cape Town, Anzio Road, Observatory, 7925, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2192, South Africa; Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa; Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4041, South Africa
| | - David Montefiori
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA; Departments of Microbiology and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Georgia D Tomaras
- Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
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24
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Follmann D, O'Brien MP, Fintzi J, Fay MP, Montefiori D, Mateja A, Herman GA, Hooper AT, Turner KC, Chan KC, Forleo-Neto E, Isa F, Baden LR, El Sahly HM, Janes H, Doria-Rose N, Miller J, Zhou H, Dang W, Benkeser D, Fong Y, Gilbert PB, Marovich M, Cohen MS. Examining protective effects of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies after vaccination or monoclonal antibody administration. Nat Commun 2023; 14:3605. [PMID: 37330602 PMCID: PMC10276829 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39292-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023] Open
Abstract
While new vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are authorized based on neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against emerging variants of concern, an analogous pathway does not exist for preventative monoclonal antibodies. In this work, nAb titers were assessed as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the casirivimab + imdevimab monoclonal antibody (mAb) prevention trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT4452318) and in the mRNA-1273 vaccine trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT04470427). In the mAb trial, protective efficacy of 92% (95% confidence interval (CI): 84%, 98%) is associated with a nAb titer of 1000 IU50/ml, with lower efficacy at lower nAb titers. In the vaccine trial, protective efficacies of 93% [95% CI: 91%, 95%] and 97% (95% CI: 95%, 98%) are associated with nAb titers of 100 and 1000 IU50/ml, respectively. These data quantitate a nAb titer correlate of protection for mAbs benchmarked alongside vaccine induced nAb titers and support nAb titer as a surrogate endpoint for authorizing new mAbs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | | | - Jonathan Fintzi
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Michael P Fay
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - David Montefiori
- Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Allyson Mateja
- Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Flonza Isa
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Tarrytown, NY, USA
| | | | - Hana M El Sahly
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Holly Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nicole Doria-Rose
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mary Marovich
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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25
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Yu T, Wu L, Qiu J, Gilbert PB. Robust joint modelling of left-censored longitudinal data and survival data with application to HIV vaccine studies. Ann Appl Stat 2023; 17:1017-1037. [PMID: 37396148 PMCID: PMC10312337 DOI: 10.1214/22-aoas1656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
In jointly modelling longitudinal and survival data, the longitudinal data may be complex in the sense that they may contain outliers and may be left censored. Motivated from an HIV vaccine study, we propose a robust method for joint models of longitudinal and survival data, where the outliers in longitudinal data are addressed using a multivariate t-distribution for b-outliers and using an M-estimator for e-outliers. We also propose a computationally efficient method for approximate likelihood inference. The proposed method is evaluated by simulation studies. Based on the proposed models and method, we analyze the HIV vaccine data and find a strong association between longitudinal biomarkers and the risk of HIV infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tingting Yu
- Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia
- Current Affiliation: Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and Harvard Medical School
| | - Lang Wu
- Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia
| | - Jin Qiu
- Department of Statistics, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences Divisions, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
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26
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Mkhize NN, Yssel AEJ, Kaldine H, van Dorsten RT, Woodward Davis AS, Beaume N, Matten D, Lambson B, Modise T, Kgagudi P, York T, Westfall DH, Giorgi EE, Korber B, Anthony C, Mapengo RE, Bekker V, Domin E, Eaton A, Deng W, DeCamp A, Huang Y, Gilbert PB, Gwashu-Nyangiwe A, Thebus R, Ndabambi N, Mielke D, Mgodi N, Karuna S, Edupuganti S, Seaman MS, Corey L, Cohen MS, Hural J, McElrath MJ, Mullins JI, Montefiori D, Moore PL, Williamson C, Morris L. Neutralization profiles of HIV-1 viruses from the VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. PLoS Pathog 2023; 19:e1011469. [PMID: 37384759 PMCID: PMC10337935 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2023] [Revised: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023] Open
Abstract
The VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) efficacy trials conducted between 2016 and 2020 showed for the first time that passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) could prevent HIV-1 acquisition against bnAb-sensitive viruses. HIV-1 viruses isolated from AMP participants who acquired infection during the study in the sub-Saharan African (HVTN 703/HPTN 081) and the Americas/European (HVTN 704/HPTN 085) trials represent a panel of currently circulating strains of HIV-1 and offer a unique opportunity to investigate the sensitivity of the virus to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) being considered for clinical development. Pseudoviruses were constructed using envelope sequences from 218 individuals. The majority of viruses identified were clade B and C; with clades A, D, F and G and recombinants AC and BF detected at lower frequencies. We tested eight bnAbs in clinical development (VRC01, VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117, CAP256.25, PGDM1400, PGT121, 10-1074 and 10E8v4) for neutralization against all AMP placebo viruses (n = 76). Compared to older clade C viruses (1998-2010), the HVTN703/HPTN081 clade C viruses showed increased resistance to VRC07-523LS and CAP256.25. At a concentration of 1μg/ml (IC80), predictive modeling identified the triple combination of V3/V2-glycan/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10-1074/PGDM1400/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade C viruses and a combination of MPER/V3/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10E8v4/10-1074/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade B viruses, due to low coverage of V2-glycan directed bnAbs against clade B viruses. Overall, the AMP placebo viruses represent a valuable resource for defining the sensitivity of contemporaneous circulating viral strains to bnAbs and highlight the need to update reference panels regularly. Our data also suggests that combining bnAbs in passive immunization trials would improve coverage of global viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nonhlanhla N. Mkhize
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anna E. J. Yssel
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Haajira Kaldine
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Rebecca T. van Dorsten
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council Antiviral Gene Therapy Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amanda S. Woodward Davis
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Nicolas Beaume
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - David Matten
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Bronwen Lambson
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Tandile Modise
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Prudence Kgagudi
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Talita York
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Dylan H. Westfall
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Elena E. Giorgi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Bette Korber
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Colin Anthony
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Rutendo E. Mapengo
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Valerie Bekker
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Elizabeth Domin
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Amanda Eaton
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Wenjie Deng
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Allan DeCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Asanda Gwashu-Nyangiwe
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ruwayhida Thebus
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nonkululeko Ndabambi
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Dieter Mielke
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences Clinical Trials Research Centre, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Shelly Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University, Decatur, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Michael S. Seaman
- Center for Virology and Vaccine Research, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Myron S. Cohen
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North-Carolina, United States of America
| | - John Hural
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - M. Juliana McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - James I. Mullins
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - David Montefiori
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Penny L. Moore
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Institute for Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
- National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- SA MRC Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
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27
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Sun Y, Zhou Q, Gilbert PB. Analysis of the Cox Model with Longitudinal Covariates with Measurement Errors and Partly Interval Censored Failure Times, with Application to an AIDS Clinical Trial. Stat Biosci 2023; 15:430-454. [PMID: 37313548 PMCID: PMC10198790 DOI: 10.1007/s12561-023-09372-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2022] [Revised: 04/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Time-dependent covariates are often measured intermittently and with measurement errors. Motivated by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) 175 trial, this paper develops statistical inferences for the Cox model for partly interval censored failure times and longitudinal covariates with measurement errors. The conditional score methods developed for the Cox model with measurement errors and right censored data are no longer applicable to interval censored data. Assuming an additive measurement error model for a longitudinal covariate, we propose a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation approach by deriving the measurement error induced hazard model that shows the attenuating effect of using the plug-in estimate for the true underlying longitudinal covariate. An EM algorithm is devised to facilitate maximum likelihood estimation that accounts for the partly interval censored failure times. The proposed methods can accommodate different numbers of replicates for different individuals and at different times. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods perform well with satisfactory finite-sample performances and that the naive methods ignoring measurement error or using the plug-in estimate can yield large biases. A hypothesis testing procedure for the measurement error model is proposed. The proposed methods are applied to the ACTG 175 trial to assess the associations of treatment arm and time-dependent CD4 cell count on the composite clinical endpoint of AIDS or death. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12561-023-09372-y.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanqing Sun
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC USA
| | - Qingning Zhou
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences Divisions, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
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28
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Benkeser D, Montefiori DC, McDermott AB, Fong Y, Janes HE, Deng W, Zhou H, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Flach B, Lin BC, O’Connell S, McDanal C, Eaton A, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Kenny A, Carone M, Williamson BD, Garver J, Altonen E, Rudge T, Huynh C, Miller J, El Sahly HM, Baden LR, Frey S, Malkin E, Spector SA, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Carpp LN, Pajon R, Follmann D, Donis RO, Koup RA, Gilbert PB. Comparing antibody assays as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial. Sci Transl Med 2023; 15:eade9078. [PMID: 37075127 PMCID: PMC10243212 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.ade9078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Adrian B. McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Holly E. Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Lakshmi Jayashankar
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Bob C. Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Sarah O’Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Charlene McDanal
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Amanda Eaton
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Lars W. P. van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Nima S. Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Brian D. Williamson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA 98101, USA
| | | | | | | | - Chuong Huynh
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | | | | | | | - Sharon Frey
- Department of Internal Medicine, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA
| | - Elissa Malkin
- Vaccine Research Unit, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA
| | - Stephen A. Spector
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
- Rady Children’s Hospital, San Diego, CA 92123, USA
| | - Michele P. Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - James G. Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
| | - Kathleen M. Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | | | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Ruben O. Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Richard A. Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Fong Y, Huang Y, Benkeser D, Carpp LN, Áñez G, Woo W, McGarry A, Dunkle LM, Cho I, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Petropoulos CJ, Leith A, Haugaard D, Webb B, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Hutter J, Keshtkar-Jahromi M, Beresnev TH, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Follmann D, Ake JA, Gay CL, Kotloff KL, Koup RA, Donis RO, Gilbert PB. Publisher Correction: Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1581. [PMID: 36949083 PMCID: PMC10031713 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/24/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Wayne Woo
- Novavax, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Julia Hutter
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Maryam Keshtkar-Jahromi
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Tatiana H Beresnev
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Julie A Ake
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Cynthia L Gay
- University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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30
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Benkeser D, Fong Y, Janes HE, Kelly EJ, Hirsch I, Sproule S, Stanley AM, Maaske J, Villafana T, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Ayala V, Petropoulos CJ, Leith A, Haugaard D, Webb B, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Carpp LN, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Isaacs MB, Makhene M, Tong T, Robb ML, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Follmann D, Hoffman C, Falsey AR, Sobieszczyk M, Koup RA, Donis RO, Gilbert PB. Immune correlates analysis of a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine. NPJ Vaccines 2023; 8:36. [PMID: 36899062 PMCID: PMC10005913 DOI: 10.1038/s41541-023-00630-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2022] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
In the phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine conducted in the U.S., Chile, and Peru, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured four weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These analyses of SARS-CoV-2 negative participants were based on case-cohort sampling of vaccine recipients (33 COVID-19 cases by 4 months post dose two, 463 non-cases). The adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.76) per 10-fold increase in spike IgG concentration and 0.28 (0.10, 0.77) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At nAb ID50 below the limit of detection (< 2.612 IU50/ml), 10, 100, and 270 IU50/ml, vaccine efficacy was -5.8% (-651%, 75.6%), 64.9% (56.4%, 86.9%), 90.0% (55.8%, 97.6%) and 94.2% (69.4%, 99.1%). These findings provide further evidence towards defining an immune marker correlate of protection to help guide regulatory/approval decisions for COVID-19 vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Holly E Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Elizabeth J Kelly
- Translational Medicine, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - Ian Hirsch
- Biometrics, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Stephanie Sproule
- Biometrics, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - Ann Marie Stanley
- Translational Medicine, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - Jill Maaske
- Clinical Development, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - Tonya Villafana
- Clinical Development, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - Christopher R Houchens
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Lakshmi Jayashankar
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Victor Ayala
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Mamodikoe Makhene
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Tina Tong
- Vaccine Translational Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Merlin L Robb
- US Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Corey Hoffman
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Ann R Falsey
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA
| | - Magdalena Sobieszczyk
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center and New York-Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, USA
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Cohen D, Ashkenazi S, Schneerson R, Farzam N, Bialik A, Meron-Sudai S, Asato V, Goren S, Baran TZ, Muhsen K, Gilbert PB, MacLennan CA. Threshold protective levels of serum IgG to Shigella lipopolysaccharide: re-analysis of Shigella vaccine trials data. Clin Microbiol Infect 2023; 29:366-371. [PMID: 36243351 PMCID: PMC9993342 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2022.10.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2022] [Revised: 10/03/2022] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Establishing a correlate of protection is essential for the development and licensure of Shigella vaccines. We examined potential threshold levels of serum IgG to Shigella lipopolysaccharide (LPS) that could predict protection against shigellosis. METHODS We performed new analyses of serologic and vaccine efficacy (VE) data from two randomized vaccine-controlled trials of the Shigella sonnei-Pseudomonas aeruginosa recombinant exoprotein A (rEPA) conjugate conducted in young adults and children aged 1-4 years in Israel. Adults received either S. sonnei-rEPA (n = 183) or control vaccines (n = 277). Children received the S. sonnei-rEPA conjugate (n = 1384) or S. flexneri 2a-rEPA conjugate (n = 1315). VE against culture-proven shigellosis was determined. Sera were tested for IgG anti-S. sonnei LPS antibodies. We assessed the association of various levels of IgG anti-S. sonnei LPS antibodies with S. sonnei shigellosis risk using logistic regression models and the reverse cumulative distribution of IgG levels. RESULTS Among adults, four vaccinees and 23 controls developed S. sonnei shigellosis; the VE was 74% (95% CI, 28-100%). A threshold of ≥1:1600 IgG anti-S. sonnei LPS titre was associated with a reduced risk of S. sonnei shigellosis and a predicted VE of 73.6% (95% CI, 65-80%). The IgG anti-S. sonnei LPS correlated with serum bactericidal titres. In children, a population-based level of 4.5 ELISA Units (EU) corresponding to 1:1072 titre, predicted VE of 63%, versus 71% observed VE in children aged 3-4 years. The predicted VE in children aged 2-4 years was 49%, consistent with the 52% observed VE. CONCLUSION Serum IgG anti-S. sonnei LPS threshold levels can predict the degree of VE and can be used for the evaluation of new vaccine candidates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dani Cohen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
| | - Shai Ashkenazi
- Adelson School of Medicine, Ariel University, Ariel, Israel; Schneider Children's Medical Center, Petach Tikva, Israel
| | - Rachel Schneerson
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Nahid Farzam
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, Ramat Gan, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Anya Bialik
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Shiri Meron-Sudai
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Valeria Asato
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Sophy Goren
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Tomer Ziv Baran
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Khitam Muhsen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Calman A MacLennan
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, London, United Kingdom; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Jenner Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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32
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Sun Y, Heng F, Lee U, Gilbert PB. Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials. CAN J STAT 2023; 51:235-257. [PMID: 36937899 PMCID: PMC10022693 DOI: 10.1002/cjs.11693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2021] [Accepted: 10/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
This article studies generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly-robust augmented inverse probability weighted complete-case (AIPW) approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanqing Sun
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223, U.S.A
| | - Fei Heng
- University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL 32224, U.S.A
| | - Unkyung Lee
- CBER, Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993, U.S.A
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, U.S.A
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, U.S.A
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33
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Cohen KW, Fiore-Gartland A, Walsh SR, Yusim K, Frahm N, Elizaga ML, Maenza J, Scott H, Mayer KH, Goepfert PA, Edupuganti S, Pantaleo G, Hutter J, Morris DE, De Rosa SC, Geraghty DE, Robb ML, Michael NL, Fischer W, Giorgi EE, Malhi H, Pensiero MN, Ferrari G, Tomaras GD, Montefiori DC, Gilbert PB, McElrath MJ, Haynes BF, Korber BT, Baden LR. Trivalent mosaic or consensus HIV immunogens prime humoral and broader cellular immune responses in adults. J Clin Invest 2023; 133:e163338. [PMID: 36787249 PMCID: PMC9927951 DOI: 10.1172/jci163338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 12/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUNDMosaic and consensus HIV-1 immunogens provide two distinct approaches to elicit greater breadth of coverage against globally circulating HIV-1 and have shown improved immunologic breadth in nonhuman primate models.METHODSThis double-blind randomized trial enrolled 105 healthy HIV-uninfected adults who received 3 doses of either a trivalent global mosaic, a group M consensus (CON-S), or a natural clade B (Nat-B) gp160 env DNA vaccine followed by 2 doses of a heterologous modified vaccinia Ankara-vectored HIV-1 vaccine or placebo. We performed prespecified blinded immunogenicity analyses at day 70 and day 238 after the first immunization. T cell responses to vaccine antigens and 5 heterologous Env variants were fully mapped.RESULTSEnv-specific CD4+ T cell responses were induced in 71% of the mosaic vaccine recipients versus 48% of the CON-S recipients and 48% of the natural Env recipients. The mean number of T cell epitopes recognized was 2.5 (95% CI, 1.2-4.2) for mosaic recipients, 1.6 (95% CI, 0.82-2.6) for CON-S recipients, and 1.1 (95% CI, 0.62-1.71) for Nat-B recipients. Mean breadth was significantly greater in the mosaic group than in the Nat-B group using overall (P = 0.014), prime-matched (P = 0.002), heterologous (P = 0.046), and boost-matched (P = 0.009) measures. Overall T cell breadth was largely due to Env-specific CD4+ T cell responses.CONCLUSIONPriming with a mosaic antigen significantly increased the number of epitopes recognized by Env-specific T cells and enabled more, albeit still limited, cross-recognition of heterologous variants. Mosaic and consensus immunogens are promising approaches to address global diversity of HIV-1.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02296541.FUNDINGUS NIH grants UM1 AI068614, UM1 AI068635, UM1 AI068618, UM1 AI069412, UL1 RR025758, P30 AI064518, UM1 AI100645, and UM1 AI144371, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant OPP52282.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristen W. Cohen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Andrew Fiore-Gartland
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Stephen R. Walsh
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Center for Virology and Vaccine Research, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Karina Yusim
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - Nicole Frahm
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Marnie L. Elizaga
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Janine Maenza
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Hyman Scott
- San Francisco Department of Public Health, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Kenneth H. Mayer
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- The Fenway Institute, Fenway Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | | | | | - Julia Hutter
- Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Daryl E. Morris
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Stephen C. De Rosa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Daniel E. Geraghty
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Merlin L. Robb
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Nelson L. Michael
- Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA
| | - Will Fischer
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - Elena E. Giorgi
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - Harmandeep Malhi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Michael N. Pensiero
- Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Guido Ferrari
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute and
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Georgia D. Tomaras
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute and
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute and
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - M. Juliana McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Bette T. Korber
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - Lindsey R. Baden
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Khoury DS, Schlub TE, Cromer D, Steain M, Fong Y, Gilbert PB, Subbarao K, Triccas JA, Kent SJ, Davenport MP. Correlates of Protection, Thresholds of Protection, and Immunobridging among Persons with SARS-CoV-2 Infection. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:381-388. [PMID: 36692375 PMCID: PMC9881762 DOI: 10.3201/eid2902.221422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Several studies have shown that neutralizing antibody levels correlate with immune protection from COVID-19 and have estimated the relationship between neutralizing antibodies and protection. However, results of these studies vary in terms of estimates of the level of neutralizing antibodies required for protection. By normalizing antibody titers, we found that study results converge on a consistent relationship between antibody levels and protection from COVID-19. This finding can be useful for planning future vaccine use, determining population immunity, and reducing the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Fong Y, Huang Y, Benkeser D, Carpp LN, Áñez G, Woo W, McGarry A, Dunkle LM, Cho I, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Petropoulos CJ, Leith A, Haugaard D, Webb B, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Hutter J, Keshtkar-Jahromi M, Beresnev TH, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Follmann D, Ake JA, Gay CL, Kotloff KL, Koup RA, Donis RO, Gilbert PB. Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial. Nat Commun 2023; 14:331. [PMID: 36658109 PMCID: PMC9851580 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35768-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
In the PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (NCT04611802), anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG), anti-RBD binding IgG concentration (RBD IgG), and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks post-dose two are assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against COVID-19. Analyses are conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measures the markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases. All markers are inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. In vaccine recipients with nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, and 7230 international units (IU50)/ml, vaccine efficacy estimates are 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The results support potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Wayne Woo
- Novavax, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Julia Hutter
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Maryam Keshtkar-Jahromi
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Tatiana H Beresnev
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Julie A Ake
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Cynthia L Gay
- University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Fong Y, Huang Y, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Zhang W, Carpp LN, Cho I, Glenn G, Fries L, Gottardo R, Gilbert PB. Antibody Correlates of Protection From Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Vaccine Efficacy Trial. Open Forum Infect Dis 2023; 10:ofac693. [PMID: 36655191 PMCID: PMC9835761 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofac693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause serious lung infections in young children and there is currently no available vaccine. Methods We used complementary statistical frameworks to analyze 4 RSV serology measurements in mothers and their infants in South Africa who participated in a phase 3 maternal immunization trial of an RSV F protein nanoparticle vaccine as correlates of risk and of protection against different RSV disease endpoints. Results We found evidence to support each antibody measurement-encompassing RSV-neutralizing antibodies and F surface glycoprotein-binding antibodies-as an inverse correlate of risk of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory tract infection with severe hypoxia in at least 1 framework, with vaccine-induced fold-rise from the maternal enrollment to day 14 samples of anti-F immunoglobulin G (IgG) binding antibodies having the most consistent evidence. This evidence includes a significant association of fold-rise anti-F IgG with vaccine efficacy (VE); achieving a baseline covariate-adjusted VE of 75% requires a vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise of around 16. Neither multivariable logistic regression nor superlearning analyses showed benefit to including multiple time points or assays in the same model, suggesting a parsimonious correlate. Post hoc exploratory analyses supported adherence of vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise to the Prentice criteria for a valid surrogate endpoint. Conclusions Our results suggest that the vaccine induced protective anti-F antibody responses. If this finding is confirmed, VE could potentially be augmented by increasing these responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA,Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ying Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA,Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Wenbo Zhang
- Present affiliations: Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Iksung Cho
- Novavax, Inc, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA
| | - Greg Glenn
- Novavax, Inc, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Raphael Gottardo
- Present affiliations: University of Lausanne and Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Correspondence: Peter B. Gilbert, PhD, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, PO Box 19024, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109, USA ()
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37
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Huang Y, Zhang L, Eaton A, Mkhize NN, Carpp LN, Rudnicki E, DeCamp A, Juraska M, Randhawa A, McDermott A, Ledgerwood J, Andrew P, Karuna S, Edupuganti S, Mgodi N, Cohen M, Corey L, Mascola J, Gilbert PB, Morris L, Montefiori DC. Prediction of serum HIV-1 neutralization titers of VRC01 in HIV-uninfected Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trial participants. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2022; 18:1908030. [PMID: 34213402 PMCID: PMC8928800 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2021.1908030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Revised: 01/06/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
VRC01 is being evaluated in the AMP efficacy trials, the first assessment of a passively administered broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody (bnAb) for HIV-1 prevention. A key analysis will assess serum VRC01-mediated neutralization as a potential correlate of protection. To prepare for this analysis, we conducted a pilot study where we measured longitudinal VRC01 serum concentrations and serum VRC01-mediated neutralization in 47 and 31 HIV-1 uninfected AMP participants, respectively. We applied four different statistical approaches to predict serum VRC01-mediated neutralization titer against Env-pseudotyped viruses, including breakthrough viruses isolated from AMP placebo recipients who became HIV-1 infected during the trial, using VRC01 serum concentration and neutralization potency (IC50 or IC80) of the VRC01 clinical lot against the same virus. Approaches 3 and 4, which utilized pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics joint modeling of concentration and neutralization titer, generally performed the best or comparably to Approaches 1 and 2, which, respectively, utilized only measured and model-predicted concentration. For prediction of ID80 titers against breakthrough viruses, Approaches 1 and 2 rendered comparable performance to Approaches 3 and 4, and could be reasonable approaches to adopt in practice as they entail reduced assay cost and less complicated statistical analysis. Our results may be applied to future studies of other bnAbs and bnAb combinations to maximize resource efficiency in serum neutralization titer measurement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lily Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Amanda Eaton
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Erika Rudnicki
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Allan DeCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - April Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Adrian McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center (VRC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Julie Ledgerwood
- Vaccine Research Center (VRC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Philip Andrew
- Family Health International, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Shelly Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University, Decatur, Georgia, USA
| | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- Clinical Trials Research Centre, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Myron Cohen
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Departments of Medicine and Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - John Mascola
- Vaccine Research Center (VRC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter B Gilbert
- From the Division of Vaccine and Infectious Disease and the Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, and the Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington - both in Seattle (P.B.G., Y.F.); the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Washington, DC (R.O.D.); the Vaccine Research Center (R.A.K.) and the Biostatistics Research Branch (D.F.), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Vaxconsult, Doylestown - both in Pennsylvania (S.A.P.)
| | - Ruben O Donis
- From the Division of Vaccine and Infectious Disease and the Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, and the Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington - both in Seattle (P.B.G., Y.F.); the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Washington, DC (R.O.D.); the Vaccine Research Center (R.A.K.) and the Biostatistics Research Branch (D.F.), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Vaxconsult, Doylestown - both in Pennsylvania (S.A.P.)
| | - Richard A Koup
- From the Division of Vaccine and Infectious Disease and the Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, and the Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington - both in Seattle (P.B.G., Y.F.); the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Washington, DC (R.O.D.); the Vaccine Research Center (R.A.K.) and the Biostatistics Research Branch (D.F.), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Vaxconsult, Doylestown - both in Pennsylvania (S.A.P.)
| | - Youyi Fong
- From the Division of Vaccine and Infectious Disease and the Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, and the Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington - both in Seattle (P.B.G., Y.F.); the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Washington, DC (R.O.D.); the Vaccine Research Center (R.A.K.) and the Biostatistics Research Branch (D.F.), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Vaxconsult, Doylestown - both in Pennsylvania (S.A.P.)
| | - Stanley A Plotkin
- From the Division of Vaccine and Infectious Disease and the Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, and the Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington - both in Seattle (P.B.G., Y.F.); the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Washington, DC (R.O.D.); the Vaccine Research Center (R.A.K.) and the Biostatistics Research Branch (D.F.), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Vaxconsult, Doylestown - both in Pennsylvania (S.A.P.)
| | - Dean Follmann
- From the Division of Vaccine and Infectious Disease and the Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, and the Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington - both in Seattle (P.B.G., Y.F.); the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Washington, DC (R.O.D.); the Vaccine Research Center (R.A.K.) and the Biostatistics Research Branch (D.F.), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD; and the Department of Pediatrics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and Vaxconsult, Doylestown - both in Pennsylvania (S.A.P.)
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Fong Y, McDermott AB, Benkeser D, Roels S, Stieh DJ, Vandebosch A, Le Gars M, Van Roey GA, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Amoa-Awua O, Basappa M, Flach B, Lin BC, Moore C, Naisan M, Naqvi M, Narpala S, O'Connell S, Mueller A, Serebryannyy L, Castro M, Wang J, Petropoulos CJ, Luedtke A, Hyrien O, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Kenny A, Carone M, Wolfe DN, Sadoff J, Gray GE, Grinsztejn B, Goepfert PA, Little SJ, Paiva de Sousa L, Maboa R, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Hendriks J, Truyers C, Struyf F, Schuitemaker H, Douoguih M, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Carpp LN, Follmann D, Gilbert PB, Koup RA, Donis RO. Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial. Nat Microbiol 2022; 7:1996-2010. [PMID: 36357712 PMCID: PMC10166187 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-022-01262-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Adrian B McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Sanne Roels
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Daniel J Stieh
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - An Vandebosch
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Obrimpong Amoa-Awua
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Manjula Basappa
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Bob C Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Christopher Moore
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mursal Naisan
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Muhammed Naqvi
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sandeep Narpala
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sarah O'Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Allen Mueller
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Leo Serebryannyy
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mike Castro
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Jennifer Wang
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Alex Luedtke
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ollivier Hyrien
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel N Wolfe
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Glenda E Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Susan J Little
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Leonardo Paiva de Sousa
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Rebone Maboa
- Ndlovu Elandsdoorn Site, Limpopo, Dennilton, South Africa
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jenny Hendriks
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Carla Truyers
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Frank Struyf
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | | | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
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40
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Zhao LP, Lybrand TP, Gilbert PB, Payne TH, Pyo CW, Geraghty DE, Jerome KR. Rapidly identifying new coronavirus mutations of potential concern in the Omicron variant using an unsupervised learning strategy. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19089. [PMID: 36352021 PMCID: PMC9645309 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23342-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Extensive mutations in the Omicron spike protein appear to accelerate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and rapid infections increase the odds that additional mutants will emerge. To build an investigative framework, we have applied an unsupervised machine learning approach to 4296 Omicron viral genomes collected and deposited to GISAID as of December 14, 2021, and have identified a core haplotype of 28 polymutants (A67V, T95I, G339D, R346K, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493R, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, K796Y, N856K, Q954H, N69K, L981F) in the spike protein and a separate core haplotype of 17 polymutants in non-spike genes: (K38, A1892) in nsp3, T492 in nsp4, (P132, V247, T280, S284) in 3C-like proteinase, I189 in nsp6, P323 in RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, I42 in Exonuclease, T9 in envelope protein, (D3, Q19, A63) in membrane glycoprotein, and (P13, R203, G204) in nucleocapsid phosphoprotein. Using these core haplotypes as reference, we have identified four newly emerging polymutants (R346, A701, I1081, N1192) in the spike protein (p value = 9.37*10-4, 1.0*10-15, 4.76*10-7 and 1.56*10-4, respectively), and five additional polymutants in non-spike genes (D343G in nucleocapsid phosphoprotein, V1069I in nsp3, V94A in nsp4, F694Y in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and L106L/F of ORF3a) that exhibit significant increasing trajectories (all p values < 1.0*10-15). In the absence of relevant clinical data for these newly emerging mutations, it is important to monitor them closely. Two emerging mutations may be of particular concern: the N1192S mutation in spike protein locates in an extremely highly conserved region of all human coronaviruses that is integral to the viral fusion process, and the F694Y mutation in the RNA polymerase may induce conformational changes that could impact remdesivir binding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lue Ping Zhao
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Terry P Lybrand
- Quintepa Computing LLC, Nashville, TN, USA.
- Department of Chemistry, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Thomas H Payne
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chul-Woo Pyo
- Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel E Geraghty
- Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Keith R Jerome
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
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41
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Qi L, Sun Y, Juraska M, Moodie Z, Magaret CA, Heng F, Carpp LN, Gilbert PB. Neutralizing antibody correlates of sequence specific dengue disease in a tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial in Asia. Vaccine 2022; 40:5912-5923. [PMID: 36068106 PMCID: PMC9881745 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.08.055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2021] [Revised: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
In the CYD14 trial of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in 2-14 year-olds, neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers to the vaccine-insert dengue strains correlated inversely with symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD). Also, vaccine efficacy against VCD was higher against dengue prM/E amino acid sequences closer to the vaccine inserts. We integrated the nAb and sequence data types by assessing nAb titers as a correlate of sequence-specific VCD separately in the vaccine arm and in the placebo arm. In both vaccine and placebo recipients the correlation of nAb titer with sequence-specific VCD was stronger for dengue nAb contact site sequences closer to the vaccine (p = 0.005 and p = 0.012, respectively). The risk of VCD in vaccine (placebo) recipients was 6.7- (1.80)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile of nAb for viruses perfectly matched to CYD-TDV, compared to 2.1- (0.78)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile for viruses with five amino acid mismatches. The evidence for a stronger sequence-distance dependent correlate of risk for the vaccine arm indicates departure from the Prentice criteria for a valid sequence-distance specific surrogate endpoint and suggests that the nAb marker may affect dengue risk differently depending on whether nAbs arise from infection or also by vaccination. However, when restricting to baseline-seropositive 9-14 year-olds, the correlation pattern became more similar between the vaccine and placebo arms, supporting nAb titers as an approximate surrogate endpoint in this population. No sequence-specific nAb titer correlates of VCD were seen in baseline-seronegative participants. Integrated immune response/pathogen sequence data correlates analyses could help increase knowledge of correlates of risk and surrogate endpoints for other vaccines against genetically diverse pathogens. Trial registration: EU Clinical Trials Register 2014-001708-24; registration date 2014-05-26.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Qi
- Biostatistics and Programming, Sanofi, 55 Corporate Drive, Bridgewater, NJ 08807, United States.
| | - Yanqing Sun
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 9201 University City Boulevard, Charlotte, NC 28223, United States.
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, United States.
| | - Zoe Moodie
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, United States.
| | - Craig A Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, United States.
| | - Fei Heng
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Florida, 1 UNF Drive, Jacksonville, FL 32224, United States.
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, United States.
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, United States; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, 3980 15th Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98109, United States.
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42
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Gilbert PB, Huang Y, deCamp AC, Karuna S, Zhang Y, Magaret CA, Giorgi EE, Korber B, Edlefsen PT, Rossenkhan R, Juraska M, Rudnicki E, Kochar N, Huang Y, Carpp LN, Barouch DH, Mkhize NN, Hermanus T, Kgagudi P, Bekker V, Kaldine H, Mapengo RE, Eaton A, Domin E, West C, Feng W, Tang H, Seaton KE, Heptinstall J, Brackett C, Chiong K, Tomaras GD, Andrew P, Mayer BT, Reeves DB, Sobieszczyk ME, Garrett N, Sanchez J, Gay C, Makhema J, Williamson C, Mullins JI, Hural J, Cohen MS, Corey L, Montefiori DC, Morris L. Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition. Nat Med 2022; 28:1924-1932. [PMID: 35995954 PMCID: PMC9499869 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01953-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2021] [Accepted: 07/14/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker-which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual's serum against an HIV-1 isolate-can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter B. Gilbert
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Allan C. deCamp
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Shelly Karuna
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Yuanyuan Zhang
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Craig A. Magaret
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Elena E. Giorgi
- grid.148313.c0000 0004 0428 3079Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA ,grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Present Address: Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Bette Korber
- grid.148313.c0000 0004 0428 3079Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA
| | - Paul T. Edlefsen
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Erika Rudnicki
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Nidhi Kochar
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Ying Huang
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Dan H. Barouch
- grid.239395.70000 0000 9011 8547Center for Virology and Vaccine Research, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA USA ,grid.32224.350000 0004 0386 9924Ragon Institute of Massachusetts General Hospital, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard, Cambridge, MA USA
| | - Nonhlanhla N. Mkhize
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Tandile Hermanus
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Prudence Kgagudi
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Valerie Bekker
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Present Address: Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Durham, NC USA
| | - Haajira Kaldine
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Rutendo E. Mapengo
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amanda Eaton
- grid.189509.c0000000100241216Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC USA
| | - Elize Domin
- grid.189509.c0000000100241216Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC USA
| | - Carley West
- grid.189509.c0000000100241216Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC USA
| | - Wenhong Feng
- grid.189509.c0000000100241216Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC USA
| | - Haili Tang
- grid.189509.c0000000100241216Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC USA
| | - Kelly E. Seaton
- grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Duke University Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Micobiology, Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Durham, NC USA
| | - Jack Heptinstall
- grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Duke University Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Micobiology, Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Durham, NC USA
| | - Caroline Brackett
- grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Duke University Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Micobiology, Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Durham, NC USA
| | - Kelvin Chiong
- grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Duke University Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Micobiology, Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Durham, NC USA
| | - Georgia D. Tomaras
- grid.26009.3d0000 0004 1936 7961Duke University Departments of Surgery, Immunology, Molecular Genetics and Micobiology, Duke Center for Human Systems Immunology, Durham, NC USA
| | - Philip Andrew
- grid.245835.d0000 0001 0300 5112Family Health International, Durham, NC USA
| | - Bryan T. Mayer
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Daniel B. Reeves
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Magdalena E. Sobieszczyk
- grid.21729.3f0000000419368729Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY USA
| | - Nigel Garrett
- grid.16463.360000 0001 0723 4123Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa ,grid.16463.360000 0001 0723 4123Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Jorge Sanchez
- grid.10800.390000 0001 2107 4576Centro de Investigaciones Tecnológicas, Biomédicas y Medioambientales, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru
| | - Cynthia Gay
- grid.10698.360000000122483208Division of Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC USA
| | - Joseph Makhema
- Botswana-Harvard AIDS Initiative Partnership for HIV Research and Education, Gaborone, Botswana ,grid.239395.70000 0000 9011 8547Division of Infectious Disease, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA USA
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- grid.7836.a0000 0004 1937 1151Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - James I. Mullins
- grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - John Hural
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Myron S. Cohen
- grid.10698.360000000122483208Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- grid.270240.30000 0001 2180 1622Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA USA ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - David C. Montefiori
- grid.189509.c0000000100241216Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC USA
| | - Lynn Morris
- grid.416657.70000 0004 0630 4574National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.11951.3d0000 0004 1937 1135Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa ,grid.16463.360000 0001 0723 4123Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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43
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Moodie Z, Dintwe O, Sawant S, Grove D, Huang Y, Janes H, Heptinstall J, Omar FL, Cohen K, De Rosa SC, Zhang L, Yates NL, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Seaton KE, Laher F, Bekker LG, Malahleha M, Innes C, Kassim S, Naicker N, Govender V, Sebe M, Singh N, Kotze P, Lazarus E, Nchabeleng M, Ward AM, Brumskine W, Dubula T, Randhawa AK, Grunenberg N, Hural J, Kee JJ, Benkeser D, Jin Y, Carpp LN, Allen M, D’Souza P, Tartaglia J, DiazGranados CA, Koutsoukos M, Gilbert PB, Kublin JG, Corey L, Andersen-Nissen E, Gray GE, Tomaras GD, McElrath MJ. Analysis of the HIV Vaccine Trials Network 702 Phase 2b-3 HIV-1 Vaccine Trial in South Africa Assessing RV144 Antibody and T-Cell Correlates of HIV-1 Acquisition Risk. J Infect Dis 2022; 226:246-257. [PMID: 35758878 PMCID: PMC9890908 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiac260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The ALVAC/gp120 + MF59 vaccines in the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 702 efficacy trial did not prevent human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) acquisition. Vaccine-matched immunological endpoints that were correlates of HIV-1 acquisition risk in RV144 were measured in HVTN 702 and evaluated as correlates of HIV-1 acquisition. METHODS Among 1893 HVTN 702 female vaccinees, 60 HIV-1-seropositive cases and 60 matched seronegative noncases were sampled. HIV-specific CD4+ T-cell and binding antibody responses were measured 2 weeks after fourth and fifth immunizations. Cox proportional hazards models assessed prespecified responses as predictors of HIV-1 acquisition. RESULTS The HVTN 702 Env-specific CD4+ T-cell response rate was significantly higher than in RV144 (63% vs 40%, P = .03) with significantly lower IgG binding antibody response rate and magnitude to 1086.C V1V2 (67% vs 100%, P < .001; Pmag < .001). Although no significant univariate associations were observed between any T-cell or binding antibody response and HIV-1 acquisition, significant interactions were observed (multiplicity-adjusted P ≤.03). Among vaccinees with high IgG A244 V1V2 binding antibody responses, vaccine-matched CD4+ T-cell endpoints associated with decreased HIV-1 acquisition (estimated hazard ratios = 0.40-0.49 per 1-SD increase in CD4+ T-cell endpoint). CONCLUSIONS HVTN 702 and RV144 had distinct immunogenicity profiles. However, both identified significant correlations (univariate or interaction) for IgG V1V2 and polyfunctional CD4+ T cells with HIV-1 acquisition. Clinical Trials Registration . NCT02968849.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zoe Moodie
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - One Dintwe
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Cape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory, Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Sheetal Sawant
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Doug Grove
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Holly Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jack Heptinstall
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Faatima Laher Omar
- Cape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory, Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Kristen Cohen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Stephen C De Rosa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lu Zhang
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Nicole L Yates
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Kelly E Seaton
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Fatima Laher
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Linda Gail Bekker
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Mookho Malahleha
- Setshaba Research Centre, Soshanguve, South Africa
- Synergy Biomed Research Institute, East London, South Africa
| | - Craig Innes
- The Aurum Institute, Klerksdorp, South Africa
| | - Sheetal Kassim
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Nivashnee Naicker
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, Durban, South Africa
| | | | | | - Nishanta Singh
- South African Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
| | - Philip Kotze
- Qhakaza Mbokodo Research Centre, Ladysmith, South Africa
| | - Erica Lazarus
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Maphoshane Nchabeleng
- Mecru Clinical Research Unit, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Amy M Ward
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Thozama Dubula
- Nelson Mandela Academic Clinical Research Unit and Department of Internal Medicine and Pharmacology, Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha, South Africa
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Nicole Grunenberg
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - John Hural
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jia Jin Kee
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Yutong Jin
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Mary Allen
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Patricia D’Souza
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | | | | | | | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Erica Andersen-Nissen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Cape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory, Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Glenda E Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
| | - Georgia D Tomaras
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Immunology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - M Juliana McElrath
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Gilbert PB, Isbrucker R, Andrews N, Goldblatt D, Heath PT, Izu A, Madhi SA, Moulton L, Schrag SJ, Shang N, Siber G, Sobanjo-Ter Meulen A. Methodology for a correlate of protection for group B Streptococcus: Report from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation workshop held on 10 and 11 February 2021. Vaccine 2022; 40:4283-4291. [PMID: 35779963 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/05/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
Worldwide, childhood mortality has declined significantly, with improvements in hygiene and vaccinations against common childhood illnesses, yet newborn mortality remains high. Group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease significantly contributes to newborn mortality and is the leading cause of meningitis in infants. Many years of research have demonstrated the potential for maternal vaccination against GBS to confer protection to the infant, and at least three vaccine candidates are currently undergoing clinical trials. Given the relatively low disease incidence, any clinical vaccine efficacy study would need to include at least 40,000 to 60,000 participants. Therefore, a path to vaccine licensure based on a correlate of protection (CoP) would be the preferred route, with post-approval effectiveness studies demonstrating vaccine impact on reduction of disease burden likely to be required as part of conditional marketing approval. This workshop, hosted by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on 10 and 11 February 2021, discussed considerations and potential statistical methodologies for establishing a CoP for GBS disease. Consensus was reached that an antibody marker with global threshold predictive of a high level of vaccine protection would be most beneficial for licensure assessments. IgG binding antibody in cord blood would likely serve as the CoP, with additional studies needed to confirm a high correlation with functional antibody and to demonstrate comparable kinetics of natural versus vaccine-induced antibody. Common analyses of ongoing seroepidemiological studies include estimation of absolute and relative disease risk as a function of infant antibody concentration, with adjustment for confounders of the impact of antibody concentration on infant GBS disease including gestational age and maternal age. Estimation of an antibody concentration threshold indicative of high protection should build in margin for uncertainties from sources including unmeasured confounders, imperfect causal mediation, and variability in point and confidence interval estimates across regions and/or serotypes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences Divisions, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, USA
| | | | - Nick Andrews
- UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - David Goldblatt
- Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul T Heath
- Vaccine Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK
| | - Alane Izu
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; African Leadership in Vaccinology Expertise, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Shabir A Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; African Leadership in Vaccinology Expertise, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Lawrence Moulton
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Stephanie J Schrag
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Nong Shang
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA
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Gilbert PB, Fong Y, Kenny A, Carone M. A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection. Biostatistics 2022:kxac024. [PMID: 35848843 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxac24] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Revised: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, 1100 Fairview Ave N, PO Box 19024 Seattle, WA 98109, USA and University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics, Hans Rosling Center for Population Health, 3980 15th Avenue NE, Box 351617 Seattle, WA 98195-1617, USA
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Li SS, Hickey A, Shangguan S, Ehrenberg PK, Geretz A, Butler L, Kundu G, Apps R, Creegan M, Clifford RJ, Pinyakorn S, Eller LA, Luechai P, Gilbert PB, Holtz TH, Chitwarakorn A, Sacdalan C, Kroon E, Phanuphak N, de Souza M, Ananworanich J, O'Connell RJ, Robb ML, Michael NL, Vasan S, Thomas R. HLA-B∗46 associates with rapid HIV disease progression in Asian cohorts and prominent differences in NK cell phenotype. Cell Host Microbe 2022; 30:1173-1185.e8. [PMID: 35841889 DOI: 10.1016/j.chom.2022.06.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Revised: 01/17/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles have been linked to HIV disease progression and attributed to differences in cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitope representation. These findings are largely based on treatment-naive individuals of European and African ancestry. We assessed HLA associations with HIV-1 outcomes in 1,318 individuals from Thailand and found HLA-B∗46:01 (B∗46) associated with accelerated disease in three independent cohorts. B∗46 had no detectable effect on HIV-specific T cell responses, but this allele is unusual in containing an HLA-C epitope that binds inhibitory receptors on natural killer (NK) cells. Unbiased transcriptomic screens showed increased NK cell activation in people with HIV, without B∗46, and simultaneous single-cell profiling of surface proteins and transcriptomes revealed a NK cell subset primed for increased responses in the absence of B∗46. These findings support a role for NK cells in HIV pathogenesis, revealed by the unique properties of the B∗46 allele common only in Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuying S Li
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA 98104, USA
| | - Andrew Hickey
- Division of HIV Prevention, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA; Thailand Ministry of Public Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Shida Shangguan
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Philip K Ehrenberg
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
| | - Aviva Geretz
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Lauryn Butler
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Gautam Kundu
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Richard Apps
- Center for Human Immunology, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Matthew Creegan
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Robert J Clifford
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Suteeraporn Pinyakorn
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Leigh Anne Eller
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Pikunchai Luechai
- Division of HIV Prevention, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA; Thailand Ministry of Public Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Seattle, WA 98104, USA
| | - Timothy H Holtz
- Division of HIV Prevention, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA; Thailand Ministry of Public Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand; Office of AIDS Research, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Anupong Chitwarakorn
- Department of Disease Control, Thailand Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
| | - Carlo Sacdalan
- Institute of HIV Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | - Eugène Kroon
- Institute of HIV Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | | | - Mark de Souza
- Institute of HIV Research and Innovation, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | - Jintanat Ananworanich
- Department of Global Health, Amsterdam Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, 1105 BP Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - Merlin L Robb
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Nelson L Michael
- Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
| | - Sandhya Vasan
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA
| | - Rasmi Thomas
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
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van der Laan L, Zhang W, Gilbert PB. Nonparametric estimation of the causal effect of a stochastic threshold-based intervention. Biometrics 2022:10.1111/biom.13690. [PMID: 35526218 PMCID: PMC10024462 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Identifying a biomarker or treatment-dose threshold that marks a specified level of risk is an important problem, especially in clinical trials. In view of this goal, we consider a covariate-adjusted threshold-based interventional estimand, which happens to equal the binary treatment-specific mean estimand from the causal inference literature obtained by dichotomizing the continuous biomarker or treatment as above or below a threshold. The unadjusted version of this estimand was considered in Donovan et al.. Expanding upon Stitelman et al., we show that this estimand, under conditions, identifies the expected outcome of a stochastic intervention that sets the treatment dose of all participants above the threshold. We propose a novel nonparametric efficient estimator for the covariate-adjusted threshold-response function for the case of informative outcome missingness, which utilizes machine learning and targeted minimum-loss estimation (TMLE). We prove the estimator is efficient and characterize its asymptotic distribution and robustness properties. Construction of simultaneous 95% confidence bands for the threshold-specific estimand across a set of thresholds is discussed. In the Supporting Information, we discuss how to adjust our estimator when the biomarker is missing at random, as occurs in clinical trials with biased sampling designs, using inverse probability weighting. Efficiency and bias reduction of the proposed estimator are assessed in simulations. The methods are employed to estimate neutralizing antibody thresholds for virologically confirmed dengue risk in the CYD14 and CYD15 dengue vaccine trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lars van der Laan
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.,Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences Divisions, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Wenbo Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences Divisions, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.,Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
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Fong Y, McDermott AB, Benkeser D, Roels S, Stieh DJ, Vandebosch A, Gars ML, Van Roey GA, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Amoa-Awua O, Basappa M, Flach B, Lin BC, Moore C, Naisan M, Naqvi M, Narpala S, O’Connell S, Mueller A, Serebryannyy L, Castro M, Wang J, Petropoulos CJ, Luedtke A, Hyrien O, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Kenny A, Carone M, Wolfe DN, Sadoff J, Gray GE, Grinsztejn B, Goepfert PA, Little SJ, de Sousa LP, Maboa R, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Hendriks J, Truyers C, Struyf F, Schuitemaker H, Douoguih M, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Carpp LN, Follmann D, Gilbert PB, Koup RA, Donis RO. Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial. medRxiv 2022:2022.04.06.22272763. [PMID: 35441174 PMCID: PMC9016647 DOI: 10.1101/2022.04.06.22272763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Adrian B. McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Sanne Roels
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | - An Vandebosch
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Obrimpong Amoa-Awua
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Manjula Basappa
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Bob C. Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Christopher Moore
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mursal Naisan
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Muhammed Naqvi
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sandeep Narpala
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sarah O’Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Allen Mueller
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Leo Serebryannyy
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mike Castro
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Jennifer Wang
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Alex Luedtke
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ollivier Hyrien
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W. P. van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S. Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel N. Wolfe
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Glenda E. Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Paul A. Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Susan J. Little
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Leonardo Paiva de Sousa
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Rebone Maboa
- Ndlovu Elandsdoorn Site, Limpopo, Dennilton, South Africa
| | - April K. Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P. Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jenny Hendriks
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Carla Truyers
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Frank Struyf
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | | | - James G. Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M. Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Richard A. Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O. Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
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Mayer BT, deCamp AC, Huang Y, Schiffer JT, Gottardo R, Gilbert PB, Reeves DB. Optimizing clinical dosing of combination broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1010003. [PMID: 35385469 PMCID: PMC9084525 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan T. Mayer
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Allan C. deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Joshua T. Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Raphael Gottardo
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Daniel B. Reeves
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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Cable J, Rappuoli R, Klemm EJ, Kang G, Mutreja A, Wright GJ, Pizza M, Castro SA, Hoffmann JP, Alter G, Carfi A, Pollard AJ, Krammer F, Gupta RK, Wagner CE, Machado V, Modjarrad K, Corey L, B Gilbert P, Dougan G, Lurie N, Bjorkman PJ, Chiu C, Nemes E, Gordon SB, Steer AC, Rudel T, Blish CA, Sandberg JT, Brennan K, Klugman KP, Stuart LM, Madhi SA, Karp CL. Innovative vaccine approaches-a Keystone Symposia report. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2022; 1511:59-86. [PMID: 35029310 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines was the result of decades of research to establish flexible vaccine platforms and understand pathogens with pandemic potential, as well as several novel changes to the vaccine discovery and development processes that partnered industry and governments. And while vaccines offer the potential to drastically improve global health, low-and-middle-income countries around the world often experience reduced access to vaccines and reduced vaccine efficacy. Addressing these issues will require novel vaccine approaches and platforms, deeper insight how vaccines mediate protection, and innovative trial designs and models. On June 28-30, 2021, experts in vaccine research, development, manufacturing, and deployment met virtually for the Keystone eSymposium "Innovative Vaccine Approaches" to discuss advances in vaccine research and development.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Gagandeep Kang
- Division of Gastrointestinal Sciences, Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
| | - Ankur Mutreja
- Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology & Infectious Disease (CITIID) and Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Gavin J Wright
- Cell Surface Signalling Laboratory, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, UK.,Department of Biology, Hull York Medical School, and York Biomedical Research Institute, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Sowmya Ajay Castro
- Division of Molecular Microbiology, School of Life Sciences, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Joseph P Hoffmann
- Departments of Pediatrics and Medicine, Center for Translational Research in Infection and Inflammation, Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Galit Alter
- Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Andrew J Pollard
- Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK
| | - Florian Krammer
- The Tisch Cancer Institute and Department of Pathology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Ravindra K Gupta
- Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology & Infectious Disease (CITIID) and Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
| | - Caroline E Wagner
- Department of Bioengineering, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Viviane Machado
- Measles and Respiratory Viruses Laboratory, WHO/NIC, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Kayvon Modjarrad
- Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington.,Department of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington.,Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Gordon Dougan
- Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology & Infectious Disease (CITIID) and Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nicole Lurie
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Oslo, Norway.,Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Pamela J Bjorkman
- Division of Biology and Biological Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California
| | - Christopher Chiu
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Elisa Nemes
- Division of Immunology, Department of Pathology, South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Andrew C Steer
- Infection and Immunity, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of General Medicine, The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Thomas Rudel
- Microbiology Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
| | - Catherine A Blish
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford Immunology Program, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.,Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California
| | - John Tyler Sandberg
- Department of Medicine Huddinge, Center for Infectious Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Kiva Brennan
- National Children's Research Centre, Crumlin and School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Keith P Klugman
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Lynda M Stuart
- Immunology Program, Benaroya Research Institute at Virginia Mason, Seattle, Washington.,Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington
| | - Shabir A Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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