Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features

In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.

Prevention efficacy of the broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01 depends on HIV-1 envelope sequence features

In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081), prevention efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 (vs. placebo) against HIV-1 acquisition diagnosis varied according to the HIV-1 Envelope (Env) neutralization sensitivity to VRC01, as measured by 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80). Here, we performed a genotypic sieve analysis, a complementary approach to gaining insight into correlates of protection that assesses how PE varies with HIV-1 sequence features. We analyzed HIV-1 Env amino acid (AA) sequences from the earliest available HIV-1 RNA-positive plasma samples from AMP participants diagnosed with HIV-1 and identified Env sequence features that associated with PE. The strongest Env AA sequence correlate in both trials was VRC01 epitope distance that quantifies the divergence of the VRC01 epitope in an acquired HIV-1 isolate from the VRC01 epitope of reference HIV-1 strains that were most sensitive to VRC01-mediated neutralization. In HVTN 704/HPTN 085, the Env sequence-based predicted probability that VRC01 IC80 against the acquired isolate exceeded 1 µg/mL also significantly associated with PE. In HVTN 703/HPTN 081, a physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance across 50 VRC01 binding-associated Env AA positions of the acquired isolate from the most VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 strain significantly associated with PE. These results suggest that incorporating mutation scoring by BLOSUM62 and weighting by the strength of interactions at AA positions in the epitope:VRC01 interface can optimize performance of an Env sequence-based biomarker of VRC01 prevention efficacy. Future work could determine whether these results extend to other bnAbs and bnAb combinations.

High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial

BACKGROUND

Stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis is a new approach to correlate of protection (CoP) analysis of a phase III trial that estimates how vaccine efficacy (VE) would change under hypothetical shifts of an immune marker.

METHODS

We applied nonparametric SVE methodology to the COVE trial of messenger RNA-1273 vs placebo to evaluate post-dose 2 pseudovirus neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against the D614G strain as a CoP against COVID-19. Secondly, we evaluated the ability of these results to predict VE against variants based on shifts of geometric mean titers to variants vs D614G. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by 13 validation studies, including 12 test-negative designs.

RESULTS

SVE analysis of COVE supported post-dose 2 D614G titer as a CoP: estimated VE ranged from 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 36.2, 82.8%) to 99.3% (99.1, 99.4%) at 10-fold decreased or increased titer shifts, respectively. The SVE estimates only weakly predicted variant-specific VE estimates (concordance correlation coefficient 0.062 for post 2-dose VE).

CONCLUSION

SVE analysis of COVE supports nAb titer as a CoP for messenger RNA vaccines. Predicting variant-specific VE proved difficult due to many limitations. Greater anti-Omicron titers may be needed for high-level protection against Omicron vs anti-D614G titers needed for high-level protection against pre-Omicron COVID-19.

Stochastic Interventional Vaccine Efficacy and Principal Surrogate Analyses of Antibody Markers as Correlates of Protection against Symptomatic COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 Trial

The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.

Application of the SLAPNAP statistical learning tool to broadly neutralizing antibody HIV prevention research

Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) regimens are in clinical development for HIV prevention, necessitating additional knowledge of bnAb neutralization potency/breadth against circulating viruses. Williamson et al. (2021) described a software tool, Super LeArner Prediction of NAb Panels (SLAPNAP), with application to any HIV bnAb regimen with sufficient neutralization data against a set of viruses in the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Compile, Neutralize, and Tally Nab Panels repository. SLAPNAP produces a proteomic antibody resistance (PAR) score for Env sequences based on predicted neutralization resistance and estimates variable importance of Env amino acid features. We apply SLAPNAP to compare HIV bnAb regimens undergoing clinical testing, finding improved power for downstream sieve analyses and increased precision for comparing neutralization potency/breadth of bnAb regimens due to the inclusion of PAR scores of Env sequences with much larger sample sizes available than for neutralization outcomes. SLAPNAP substantially improves bnAb regimen characterization, ranking, and down-selection.

Comparing antibody assays as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial

The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies.

Immune correlates analysis of a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine

In the phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine conducted in the U.S., Chile, and Peru, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured four weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These analyses of SARS-CoV-2 negative participants were based on case-cohort sampling of vaccine recipients (33 COVID-19 cases by 4 months post dose two, 463 non-cases). The adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.76) per 10-fold increase in spike IgG concentration and 0.28 (0.10, 0.77) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At nAb ID50 below the limit of detection (< 2.612 IU50/ml), 10, 100, and 270 IU50/ml, vaccine efficacy was -5.8% (-651%, 75.6%), 64.9% (56.4%, 86.9%), 90.0% (55.8%, 97.6%) and 94.2% (69.4%, 99.1%). These findings provide further evidence towards defining an immune marker correlate of protection to help guide regulatory/approval decisions for COVID-19 vaccines.

Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial

In the PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (NCT04611802), anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG), anti-RBD binding IgG concentration (RBD IgG), and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks post-dose two are assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against COVID-19. Analyses are conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measures the markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases. All markers are inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. In vaccine recipients with nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, and 7230 international units (IU50)/ml, vaccine efficacy estimates are 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The results support potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.

Antibody Correlates of Protection From Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Vaccine Efficacy Trial

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause serious lung infections in young children and there is currently no available vaccine.

Methods

We used complementary statistical frameworks to analyze 4 RSV serology measurements in mothers and their infants in South Africa who participated in a phase 3 maternal immunization trial of an RSV F protein nanoparticle vaccine as correlates of risk and of protection against different RSV disease endpoints.

Results

We found evidence to support each antibody measurement-encompassing RSV-neutralizing antibodies and F surface glycoprotein-binding antibodies-as an inverse correlate of risk of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory tract infection with severe hypoxia in at least 1 framework, with vaccine-induced fold-rise from the maternal enrollment to day 14 samples of anti-F immunoglobulin G (IgG) binding antibodies having the most consistent evidence. This evidence includes a significant association of fold-rise anti-F IgG with vaccine efficacy (VE); achieving a baseline covariate-adjusted VE of 75% requires a vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise of around 16. Neither multivariable logistic regression nor superlearning analyses showed benefit to including multiple time points or assays in the same model, suggesting a parsimonious correlate. Post hoc exploratory analyses supported adherence of vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise to the Prentice criteria for a valid surrogate endpoint.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the vaccine induced protective anti-F antibody responses. If this finding is confirmed, VE could potentially be augmented by increasing these responses.

Prediction of serum HIV-1 neutralization titers of VRC01 in HIV-uninfected Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trial participants

VRC01 is being evaluated in the AMP efficacy trials, the first assessment of a passively administered broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody (bnAb) for HIV-1 prevention. A key analysis will assess serum VRC01-mediated neutralization as a potential correlate of protection. To prepare for this analysis, we conducted a pilot study where we measured longitudinal VRC01 serum concentrations and serum VRC01-mediated neutralization in 47 and 31 HIV-1 uninfected AMP participants, respectively. We applied four different statistical approaches to predict serum VRC01-mediated neutralization titer against Env-pseudotyped viruses, including breakthrough viruses isolated from AMP placebo recipients who became HIV-1 infected during the trial, using VRC01 serum concentration and neutralization potency (IC50 or IC80) of the VRC01 clinical lot against the same virus. Approaches 3 and 4, which utilized pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics joint modeling of concentration and neutralization titer, generally performed the best or comparably to Approaches 1 and 2, which, respectively, utilized only measured and model-predicted concentration. For prediction of ID80 titers against breakthrough viruses, Approaches 1 and 2 rendered comparable performance to Approaches 3 and 4, and could be reasonable approaches to adopt in practice as they entail reduced assay cost and less complicated statistical analysis. Our results may be applied to future studies of other bnAbs and bnAb combinations to maximize resource efficiency in serum neutralization titer measurement.

Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Viral protein engagement of GBF1 induces host cell vulnerability through synthetic lethality

Viruses co-opt host proteins to carry out their lifecycle. Repurposed host proteins may thus become functionally compromised; a situation analogous to a loss-of-function mutation. We term such host proteins as viral-induced hypomorphs. Cells bearing cancer driver loss-of-function mutations have successfully been targeted with drugs perturbing proteins encoded by the synthetic lethal (SL) partners of cancer-specific mutations. Similarly, SL interactions of viral-induced hypomorphs can potentially be targeted as host-based antiviral therapeutics. Here, we use GBF1, which supports the infection of many RNA viruses, as a proof-of-concept. GBF1 becomes a hypomorph upon interaction with the poliovirus protein 3A. Screening for SL partners of GBF1 revealed ARF1 as the top hit, disruption of which selectively killed cells that synthesize 3A alone or in the context of a poliovirus replicon. Thus, viral protein interactions can induce hypomorphs that render host cells selectively vulnerable to perturbations that leave uninfected cells otherwise unscathed. Exploiting viral-induced vulnerabilities could lead to broad-spectrum antivirals for many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2.

Baseline host determinants of robust human HIV-1 vaccine-induced immune responses: A meta-analysis of 26 vaccine regimens

BACKGROUND

The identification of baseline host determinants that associate with robust HIV-1 vaccine-induced immune responses could aid HIV-1 vaccine development. We aimed to assess both the collective and relative performance of baseline characteristics in classifying individual participants in nine different Phase 1-2 HIV-1 vaccine clinical trials (26 vaccine regimens, conducted in Africa and in the Americas) as High HIV-1 vaccine responders.

METHODS

This was a meta-analysis of individual participant data, with studies chosen based on participant-level (vs. study-level summary) data availability within the HIV-1 Vaccine Trials Network. We assessed the performance of 25 baseline characteristics (demographics, safety haematological measurements, vital signs, assay background measurements) and estimated the relative importance of each characteristic in classifying 831 participants as High (defined as within the top 25th percentile among positive responders or above the assay upper limit of quantification) versus Non-High responders. Immune response outcomes included HIV-1-specific serum IgG binding antibodies and Env-specific CD4+ T-cell responses assessed two weeks post-last dose, all measured at central HVTN laboratories. Three variable importance approaches based on SuperLearner ensemble machine learning were considered.

FINDINGS

Overall, 30.1%, 50.5%, 36.2%, and 13.9% of participants were categorized as High responders for gp120 IgG, gp140 IgG, gp41 IgG, and Env-specific CD4+ T-cell vaccine-induced responses, respectively. When including all baseline characteristics, moderate performance was achieved for the classification of High responder status for the binding antibody responses, with cross-validated areas under the ROC curve (CV-AUC) of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.76) for gp120 IgG, 0.73 (0.69, 0.76) for gp140 IgG, and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.72) for gp41 IgG. In contrast, the collection of all baseline characteristics yielded little improvement over chance for predicting High Env-specific CD4+ T-cell responses [CV-AUC: 0.53 (0.48, 0.58)]. While estimated variable importance patterns differed across the three approaches, female sex assigned at birth, lower height, and higher total white blood cell count emerged as significant predictors of High responder status across multiple immune response outcomes using Approach 1. Of these three baseline variables, total white blood cell count ranked highly across all three approaches for predicting vaccine-induced gp41 and gp140 High responder status.

INTERPRETATION

The identified features should be studied further in pursuit of intervention strategies to improve vaccine responses and may be adjusted for in analyses of immune response data to enhance statistical power.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (UM1AI068635 to YH, UM1AI068614 to GDT, UM1AI068618 to MJM, and UM1 AI069511 to MCK), the Duke CFAR P30 AI064518 to GDT, and National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (R01DE027245 to JJK). This work was also supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of any of the funding sources.

Neutralizing antibody correlates of sequence specific dengue disease in a tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial in Asia

In the CYD14 trial of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in 2-14 year-olds, neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers to the vaccine-insert dengue strains correlated inversely with symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD). Also, vaccine efficacy against VCD was higher against dengue prM/E amino acid sequences closer to the vaccine inserts. We integrated the nAb and sequence data types by assessing nAb titers as a correlate of sequence-specific VCD separately in the vaccine arm and in the placebo arm. In both vaccine and placebo recipients the correlation of nAb titer with sequence-specific VCD was stronger for dengue nAb contact site sequences closer to the vaccine (p = 0.005 and p = 0.012, respectively). The risk of VCD in vaccine (placebo) recipients was 6.7- (1.80)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile of nAb for viruses perfectly matched to CYD-TDV, compared to 2.1- (0.78)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile for viruses with five amino acid mismatches. The evidence for a stronger sequence-distance dependent correlate of risk for the vaccine arm indicates departure from the Prentice criteria for a valid sequence-distance specific surrogate endpoint and suggests that the nAb marker may affect dengue risk differently depending on whether nAbs arise from infection or also by vaccination. However, when restricting to baseline-seropositive 9-14 year-olds, the correlation pattern became more similar between the vaccine and placebo arms, supporting nAb titers as an approximate surrogate endpoint in this population. No sequence-specific nAb titer correlates of VCD were seen in baseline-seronegative participants. Integrated immune response/pathogen sequence data correlates analyses could help increase knowledge of correlates of risk and surrogate endpoints for other vaccines against genetically diverse pathogens. Trial registration: EU Clinical Trials Register 2014-001708-24; registration date 2014-05-26.

Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker-which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual's serum against an HIV-1 isolate-can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

Analysis of the HIV Vaccine Trials Network 702 Phase 2b-3 HIV-1 Vaccine Trial in South Africa Assessing RV144 Antibody and T-Cell Correlates of HIV-1 Acquisition Risk

BACKGROUND

The ALVAC/gp120 + MF59 vaccines in the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 702 efficacy trial did not prevent human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) acquisition. Vaccine-matched immunological endpoints that were correlates of HIV-1 acquisition risk in RV144 were measured in HVTN 702 and evaluated as correlates of HIV-1 acquisition.

METHODS

Among 1893 HVTN 702 female vaccinees, 60 HIV-1-seropositive cases and 60 matched seronegative noncases were sampled. HIV-specific CD4+ T-cell and binding antibody responses were measured 2 weeks after fourth and fifth immunizations. Cox proportional hazards models assessed prespecified responses as predictors of HIV-1 acquisition.

RESULTS

The HVTN 702 Env-specific CD4+ T-cell response rate was significantly higher than in RV144 (63% vs 40%, P = .03) with significantly lower IgG binding antibody response rate and magnitude to 1086.C V1V2 (67% vs 100%, P < .001; Pmag < .001). Although no significant univariate associations were observed between any T-cell or binding antibody response and HIV-1 acquisition, significant interactions were observed (multiplicity-adjusted P ≤.03). Among vaccinees with high IgG A244 V1V2 binding antibody responses, vaccine-matched CD4+ T-cell endpoints associated with decreased HIV-1 acquisition (estimated hazard ratios = 0.40-0.49 per 1-SD increase in CD4+ T-cell endpoint).

CONCLUSIONS

HVTN 702 and RV144 had distinct immunogenicity profiles. However, both identified significant correlations (univariate or interaction) for IgG V1V2 and polyfunctional CD4+ T cells with HIV-1 acquisition. Clinical Trials Registration . NCT02968849.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Immune correlates analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial

In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 clinical trial, vaccine recipients were assessed for neutralizing and binding antibodies as correlates of risk for COVID-19 disease and as correlates of protection. These immune markers were measured at the time of second vaccination and 4 weeks later, with values reported in standardized World Health Organization international units. All markers were inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. Vaccine recipients with postvaccination 50% neutralization titers 10, 100, and 1000 had estimated vaccine efficacies of 78% (95% confidence interval, 54 to 89%), 91% (87 to 94%), and 96% (94 to 98%), respectively. These results help define immune marker correlates of protection and may guide approval decisions for messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines and other COVID-19 vaccines.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations in the United States (January 2020-March 2021) Using a Statistical Learning Strategy

The emergence and establishment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of interest (VOIs) and variants of concern (VOCs) highlight the importance of genomic surveillance. We propose a statistical learning strategy (SLS) for identifying and spatiotemporally tracking potentially relevant Spike protein mutations. We analyzed 167,893 Spike protein sequences from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the United States (excluding 21,391 sequences from VOI/VOC strains) deposited at GISAID from 19 January 2020 to 15 March 2021. Alignment against the reference Spike protein sequence led to the identification of viral residue variants (VRVs), i.e., residues harboring a substitution compared to the reference strain. Next, generalized additive models were applied to model VRV temporal dynamics and to identify VRVs with significant and substantial dynamics (false discovery rate q-value < 0.01; maximum VRV proportion >10% on at least one day). Unsupervised learning was then applied to hierarchically organize VRVs by spatiotemporal patterns and identify VRV-haplotypes. Finally, homology modeling was performed to gain insight into the potential impact of VRVs on Spike protein structure. We identified 90 VRVs, 71 of which had not previously been observed in a VOI/VOC, and 35 of which have emerged recently and are durably present. Our analysis identified 17 VRVs ~91 days earlier than their first corresponding VOI/VOC publication. Unsupervised learning revealed eight VRV-haplotypes of four VRVs or more, suggesting two emerging strains (B1.1.222 and B.1.234). Structural modeling supported a potential functional impact of the D1118H and L452R mutations. The SLS approach equally monitors all Spike residues over time, independently of existing phylogenic classifications, and is complementary to existing genomic surveillance methods.

Calibration of two validated SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus neutralization assays for COVID-19 vaccine evaluation

Vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are key biomarkers considered to be associated with vaccine efficacy. In United States government-sponsored phase 3 efficacy trials of COVID-19 vaccines, nAbs are measured by two different validated pseudovirus-based SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays, with each trial using one of the two assays. Here we describe and compare the nAb titers obtained in the two assays. We observe that one assay consistently yielded higher nAb titers than the other when both assays were performed on the World Health Organization’s anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin International Standard, COVID-19 convalescent sera, and mRNA-1273 vaccinee sera. To overcome the challenge this difference in readout poses in comparing/combining data from the two assays, we evaluate three calibration approaches and show that readouts from the two assays can be calibrated to a common scale. These results may aid decision-making based on data from these assays for the evaluation and licensure of new or adapted COVID-19 vaccines.

Early Pro-Inflammatory Signal and T-Cell Activation Associate With Vaccine-Induced Anti-Vaccinia Protective Neutralizing Antibodies

Both vaccine “take” and neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer are historical correlates for vaccine-induced protection from smallpox. We analyzed a subset of samples from a phase 2a trial of three DNA/HIV-1 primes and a recombinant Tiantan vaccinia virus-vectored (rTV)/HIV-1 booster and found that a proportion of participants showed no anti-vaccinia nAb response to the rTV/HIV-1 booster, despite successful vaccine “take.” Using a rich transcriptomic and vaccinia-specific immunological dataset with fine kinetic sampling, we investigated the molecular mechanisms underlying nAb response. Blood transcription module analysis revealed the downregulation of the activator protein 1 (AP-1) pathway in responders, but not in non-responders, and the upregulation of T-cell activation in responders. Furthermore, transcriptional factor network reconstruction revealed the upregulation of AP-1 core genes at hour 4 and day 1 post-rTV/HIV-1 vaccination, followed by a downregulation from day 3 until day 28 in responders. In contrast, AP-1 core and pro-inflammatory genes were upregulated on day 7 in non-responders. We speculate that persistent pro-inflammatory signaling early post-rTV/HIV-1 vaccination inhibits the nAb response.

Calibration of Two Validated SARS-CoV-2 Pseudovirus Neutralization Assays for COVID-19 Vaccine Evaluation

Vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are key biomarkers considered to be associated with vaccine efficacy. In United States Government-sponsored phase 3 efficacy trials of COVID-19 vaccines, nAbs are measured by two different validated pseudovirus-based SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays, with each trial using one of the two assays. Here we describe and compare the nAb titers obtained in the two assays. We observe that one assay consistently yielded higher nAb titers than the other when both assays were performed on the World Health Organization’s anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin International Standard, COVID-19 convalescent sera, and mRNA-1273 vaccinee sera. To overcome the challenge this difference in readout poses in comparing/combining data from the two assays, we evaluate three calibration approaches and show that readouts from the two assays can be calibrated to a common scale. These results may aid decision-making based on data from these assays for the evaluation and licensure of new or adapted COVID-19 vaccines.

Calibration of Two Validated SARS-CoV-2 Pseudovirus Neutralization Assays for COVID-19 Vaccine Evaluation

Vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are key biomarkers considered to be associated with vaccine efficacy. In United States Government-sponsored phase 3 efficacy trials of COVID-19 vaccines, nAbs are measured by two different validated pseudovirus-based SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays, with each trial using one of the two assays. Here we describe and compare the nAb titers obtained in the two assays. We observe that one assay consistently yielded higher nAb titers than the other when both assays were performed on the World Health Organization’s anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin International Standard, COVID-19 convalescent sera, and mRNA-1273 vaccinee sera. To overcome the challenge this difference in readout poses in comparing/combining data from the two assays, we evaluate three calibration approaches and show that readouts from the two assays can be calibrated to a common scale. These results may aid decision-making based on data from these assays for the evaluation and licensure of new or adapted COVID-19 vaccines.

Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial

BACKGROUND

In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection.

METHODS

Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors.

RESULTS

Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.42 (0.27, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.61; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Binding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Immunobridging efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine against dengue and against hospitalized dengue from children/adolescents to adults in highly endemic countries

BACKGROUND

The recombinant tetravalent live-attenuated dengue vaccine based on the YF 17D vaccine virus backbone (CYD-TDV) demonstrated vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue of any serotype from month 13 to month 25 (VCD-DENV-AnyM13→M25) in the CYD14 (2-14-y-olds) and CYD15 (9-16-y-olds) phase 3 trials. Fifty percent plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) titers are a potential surrogate for immunobridging VE to adults.

METHODS

Using PRNT50 calibration datasets, we applied immunobridging approaches using baseline and/or M13 PRNT50 titers to estimate VE against VCD-DENV-AnyM0→M25 and against hospitalized VCD (HVCD)-DENV-AnyM0→M72 in hypothetical 18-45-y-old and 46-50-y-old CYD14 and CYD15 cohorts.

RESULTS

Baseline and M13 geometric mean PRNT50 titers were greater in 18-45-y-olds and in 46-50-y-olds vs 9-16-y-olds for most comparisons. Estimated VE (95% CIs against VCD-DENV-AnyM0→M25 ranged from 75.3% to 90.9% (52.5% to 100%) for 18-45-y-olds and 74.8% to 92.0% (53.4% to 100%) for 46-50-y-olds. Estimated VE (95% CIs) against HVCD-DENV-AnyM0→M72 ranged from 58.8% to 78.1% (40.9 to 98.9%) for 18-45-y-olds and 57.2% to 78.4% (40.5 to 97.6%) for 46-50-y-olds. Corresponding predictions among baseline-seropositive individuals yielded comparable or higher VE estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

VE M0→M25 against DENV-Any and VE against HVCD-DENV-AnyM0→M72 are both expected to be higher in 18-45 and 46-50-y-olds vs CYD14 and CYD15 9-16-y-olds.

Analysis of Neutralizing Antibodies as a Correlate of Instantaneous Risk of Hospitalized Dengue in Placebo Recipients of Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials

BACKGROUND

In the CYD14 (NCT01373281) and CYD15 (NCT01374516) dengue vaccine efficacy trials, Month 13 neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers correlated inversely with risk of symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) between Month 13 (one month post-final-dose) and Month 25. We assessed nAb titer as a correlate of instantaneous risk of hospitalized VCD (HVCD), for which participants were continually surveilled for 72 months.

METHODS

Using longitudinal nAb titers from the per-protocol immunogenicity subsets, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of HVCD by current nAb titer value for three correlate/endpoint pairs: average titer across all four serotypes/HVCD of any serotype (HVCD-Any), serotype-specific titer/homologous HVCD, and serotype-specific titer/heterologous HVCD.

RESULTS

Baseline-seropositive placebo recipients with higher average titer had lower instantaneous risk of HVCD-Any in 2-16-year-olds and in 9-16-year-olds (HR 0.26 or 0.15 per 10-fold increase in average titer by two methods, 95% CIs 0.14 to 0.45 and 0.07 to 0.34, respectively) pooled across both trials. Results were similar for homologous HVCD. There was evidence suggesting increased HVCD-Any risk in participants with low average titer (1:10 to 1:100) compared to seronegative participants (HR 1.85, 95% CI 0.93 to 3.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Natural infection-induced nAbs were inversely associated with hospitalized dengue, upon exceeding a relatively low threshold.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations in the United States (2020/01 - 2021/03) Using a Statistical Learning Strategy

The emergence and establishment of SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest (VOI) and variants of concern (VOC) highlight the importance of genomic surveillance. We propose a statistical learning strategy (SLS) for identifying and spatiotemporally tracking potentially relevant Spike protein mutations. We analyzed 167,893 Spike protein sequences from US COVID-19 cases (excluding 21,391 sequences from VOI/VOC strains) deposited at GISAID from January 19, 2020 to March 15, 2021. Alignment against the reference Spike protein sequence led to the identification of viral residue variants (VRVs), i.e., residues harboring a substitution compared to the reference strain. Next, generalized additive models were applied to model VRV temporal dynamics, to identify VRVs with significant and substantial dynamics (false discovery rate q-value <0.01; maximum VRV proportion > 10% on at least one day). Unsupervised learning was then applied to hierarchically organize VRVs by spatiotemporal patterns and identify VRV-haplotypes. Finally, homology modelling was performed to gain insight into potential impact of VRVs on Spike protein structure. We identified 90 VRVs, 71 of which have not previously been observed in a VOI/VOC, and 35 of which have emerged recently and are durably present. Our analysis identifies 17 VRVs ∼91 days earlier than their first corresponding VOI/VOC publication. Unsupervised learning revealed eight VRV-haplotypes of 4 VRVs or more, suggesting two emerging strains (B1.1.222 and B.1.234). Structural modeling supported potential functional impact of the D1118H and L452R mutations. The SLS approach equally monitors all Spike residues over time, independently of existing phylogenic classifications, and is complementary to existing genomic surveillance methods.

Comprehensive Data Integration Approach to Assess Immune Responses and Correlates of RTS,S/AS01-Mediated Protection From Malaria Infection in Controlled Human Malaria Infection Trials

RTS,S/AS01 (GSK) is the world’s first malaria vaccine. However, despite initial efficacy of almost 70% over the first 6 months of follow-up, efficacy waned over time. A deeper understanding of the immune features that contribute to RTS,S/AS01-mediated protection could be beneficial for further vaccine development. In two recent controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) trials of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in malaria-naïve adults, MAL068 and MAL071, vaccine efficacy against patent parasitemia ranged from 44% to 87% across studies and arms (each study included a standard RTS,S/AS01 arm with three vaccine doses delivered in four-week-intervals, as well as an alternative arm with a modified version of this regimen). In each trial, RTS,S/AS01 immunogenicity was interrogated using a broad range of immunological assays, assessing cellular and humoral immune parameters as well as gene expression. Here, we used a predictive modeling framework to identify immune biomarkers measured at day-of-challenge that could predict sterile protection against malaria infection. Using cross-validation on MAL068 data (either the standard RTS,S/AS01 arm alone, or across both the standard RTS,S/AS01 arm and the alternative arm), top-performing univariate models identified variables related to Fc effector functions and titer of antibodies that bind to the central repeat region (NANP6) of CSP as the most predictive variables; all NANP6-related variables consistently associated with protection. In cross-study prediction analyses of MAL071 outcomes (the standard RTS,S/AS01 arm), top-performing univariate models again identified variables related to Fc effector functions of NANP6-targeting antibodies as highly predictive. We found little benefit–with this dataset–in terms of improved prediction accuracy in bivariate models vs. univariate models. These findings await validation in children living in malaria-endemic regions, and in vaccinees administered a fourth RTS,S/AS01 dose. Our findings support a “quality as well as quantity” hypothesis for RTS,S/AS01-elicited antibodies against NANP6, implying that malaria vaccine clinical trials should assess both titer and Fc effector functions of anti-NANP6 antibodies.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

Assessing Durability of Vaccine Effect Following Blinded Crossover in COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials

BACKGROUND

Several candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known.

METHODS

Following vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease.

RESULTS

Post-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.

Viral protein engagement of GBF1 induces host cell vulnerability through synthetic lethality

Viruses co-opt host proteins to carry out their lifecycle. Repurposed host proteins may thus become functionally compromised; a situation analogous to a loss-of-function mutation. We term such host proteins viral-induced hypomorphs. Cells bearing cancer driver loss-of-function mutations have successfully been targeted with drugs perturbing proteins encoded by the synthetic lethal partners of cancer-specific mutations. Synthetic lethal interactions of viral-induced hypomorphs have the potential to be similarly targeted for the development of host-based antiviral therapeutics. Here, we use GBF1, which supports the infection of many RNA viruses, as a proof-of-concept. GBF1 becomes a hypomorph upon interaction with the poliovirus protein 3A. Screening for synthetic lethal partners of GBF1 revealed ARF1 as the top hit, disruption of which, selectively killed cells that synthesize poliovirus 3A. Thus, viral protein interactions can induce hypomorphs that render host cells vulnerable to perturbations that leave uninfected cells intact. Exploiting viral-induced vulnerabilities could lead to broad-spectrum antivirals for many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2.

SUMMARY

Using a viral-induced hypomorph of GBF1, Navare et al., demonstrate that the principle of synthetic lethality is a mechanism to selectively kill virus-infected cells.

Brief Report: Prediction of Serum HIV-1 Neutralization Titers After Passive Administration of VRC01

BACKGROUND

VRC01 is a human IgG1 broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) that binds to the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein. It is being evaluated in two ongoing Phase 2b trials, the first efficacy assessment of a passively-administered bnAb for HIV-1 prevention. HVTN 104 was a phase 1 trial of VRC01.

SETTING

We measured serum concentrations and serum neutralization of VRC01 in 1079 longitudinal samples collected after passive administration of VRC01 in 84 HVTN 104 participants. As assays for measuring VRC01 serum neutralization titers are resource-intensive, we investigated approaches to predicting such titers.

METHODS

Serum concentration was measured using an anti-idiotypic ELISA assay. Serum neutralization ID50 titers and in vitro neutralization potency IC50 of the VRC01 clinical lot were measured against Env-pseudoviruses. Three approaches were used to predict serum neutralization ID50 titers based on (1) observed serum concentration divided by IC50, (2) pharmacokinetics model-predicted serum concentration divided by IC50, and (3) joint modeling of the longitudinal serum concentrations and ID50 titers.

RESULTS

All 3 approaches yielded satisfactory prediction of neutralization titers against viruses of varied sensitivities; the median fold differences (FDs) of observed-over-predicted ID50 titers were between 0.95 and 1.37. Approach 3 generally performed the best with fold differences between 0.95 and 0.99 and <82% mean squared prediction error relative to approach 1. Similar results were obtained for ID80 titers.

CONCLUSION

VRC01 serum neutralization could be accurately predicted, especially when using pharmacokinetics models. The proposed prediction approaches could potentially save significant resources for the characterization of serum neutralization of VRC01, including for other bnAbs and bnAb combinations.

Microneutralization assay titer correlates analysis in two phase 3 trials of the CYD-TDV tetravalent dengue vaccine in Asia and Latin America

We previously showed that Month 13 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers against dengue virus (DENV) correlated with vaccine efficacy (VE) of CYD-TDV against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) in the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials. While PRNT is the gold standard nAb assay, it is time-consuming and costly. We developed a next-generation high-throughput microneutralization (MN) assay and assessed its suitability for immune-correlates analyses and immuno-bridging applications. We analyzed MN and PRNT50 titers measured at baseline and Month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subset, and at Month 13 in nearly all VCD cases through Month 25. For each serotype, MN and PRNT50 titers showed high correlations, at both baseline and Month 13, with MN yielding a higher frequency of baseline-seronegatives. For both assays, Month 13 titer correlated inversely with VCD risk. Like PRNT50, high Month 13 MN titers were associated with high VE, and estimated VE increased with average Month 13 MN titer. We also studied each assay as a valid surrogate endpoint based on the Prentice criteria, which supported each assay as a valid surrogate for DENV-1 but only partially valid for DENV-2, -3, and -4. In addition, we applied Super-Learner to assess how well demographic, Month 13 MN, and/or Month 13 PRNT50 titers could predict Month 13-25 VCD outcome status; prediction was best when using demographic, MN, and PRNT50 information. We conclude that Month 13 MN titer performs comparably to Month 13 PRNT50 titer as a correlate of risk, correlate of vaccine efficacy, and surrogate endpoint. The MN assay could potentially be used to assess nAb titers in immunogenicity studies, immune-correlates studies, and immuno-bridging applications. Additional research would be needed for assessing the utility of MN titer in correlates analyses of other DENV endpoints and over longer follow-up periods.

Orchestrating single-cell analysis with Bioconductor

Recent technological advancements have enabled the profiling of a large number of genome-wide features in individual cells. However, single-cell data present unique challenges that require the development of specialized methods and software infrastructure to successfully derive biological insights. The Bioconductor project has rapidly grown to meet these demands, hosting community-developed open-source software distributed as R packages. Featuring state-of-the-art computational methods, standardized data infrastructure and interactive data visualization tools, we present an overview and online book (https://osca.bioconductor.org) of single-cell methods for prospective users.

Landscapes of binding antibody and T-cell responses to pox-protein HIV vaccines in Thais and South Africans

BACKGROUND

HIV vaccine trials routinely measure multiple vaccine-elicited immune responses to compare regimens and study their potential associations with protection. Here we employ unsupervised learning tools facilitated by a bidirectional power transformation to explore the multivariate binding antibody and T-cell response patterns of immune responses elicited by two pox-protein HIV vaccine regimens. Both regimens utilized a recombinant canarypox vector (ALVAC-HIV) prime and a bivalent recombinant HIV-1 Envelope glycoprotein 120 subunit boost. We hypothesized that within each trial, there were participant subgroups sharing similar immune responses and that their frequencies differed across trials.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed data from three trials-RV144 (NCT00223080), HVTN 097 (NCT02109354), and HVTN 100 (NCT02404311), the latter of which was pivotal in advancing the tested pox-protein HIV vaccine regimen to the HVTN 702 Phase 2b/3 efficacy trial. We found that bivariate CD4+ T-cell and anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 antibody response patterns were similar by age, sex-at-birth, and body mass index, but differed for the pox-protein clade AE/B alum-adjuvanted regimen studied in RV144 and HVTN 097 (PAE/B/alum) compared to the pox-protein clade C/C MF59-adjuvanted regimen studied in HVTN 100 (PC/MF59). Specifically, more PAE/B/alum recipients had low CD4+ T-cell and high anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 responses, and more PC/MF59 recipients had broad responses of both types. Analyses limited to "vaccine-matched" antigens suggested that some of the differences in responses between the regimens could have been due to antigens in the assays that did not match the vaccine immunogens. Our approach was also useful in identifying subgroups with unusually absent or high co-responses across assay types, flagging individuals for further characterization by functional assays. We also found that co-responses of anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 and CD4+ T cells had broad variability. As additional immune response assays are standardized and validated, we anticipate our framework will be increasingly valuable for multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach can be used to advance vaccine development objectives, including the characterization and comparison of candidate vaccine multivariate immune responses and improved design of studies to identify correlates of protection. For instance, results suggested that HVTN 702 will have adequate power to interrogate immune correlates involving anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 and CD4+ T-cell co-readouts, but will have lower power to study anti-gp120/gp140 IgG/IgG3 due to their lower dynamic ranges. The findings also generate hypotheses for future testing in experimental and computational analyses aimed at achieving a mechanistic understanding of vaccine-elicited immune response heterogeneity.

Bridging Efficacy of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine from Children/Adolescents to Adults in Highly Endemic Countries Based on Neutralizing Antibody Response

The CYD-TDV vaccine is licensed in multiple endemic countries based on vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue demonstrated in two phase 3 trials (CYD14, 2- to 14-year-olds, Asia; CYD15, 9- to 16-year-olds, Latin America). 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT₅₀) titers at baseline and month 13 (post-vaccination) were associated with VE and may enable bridging VE to adults. Two phase 2 trials of CYD-TDV measured baseline and month 13 PRNT₅₀ titers: CYD22 (9- to 45-year-olds, Vietnam) and CYD47 (18- to 45-year-olds, India). 50% plaque reduction neutralization test distributions were compared between age cohorts, and four versions of an epidemiological bridging method were used to estimate VE against any serotype (dengue virus [DENV]-Any) and against each serotype over 25 months post first vaccination in a hypothetical CYD14 + CYD15 18- to 45-year-old cohort (bridging population 1) and in the actual CYD47 18- to 45-year-old cohort (bridging population 2). Baseline and month 13 geometric mean PRNT₅₀ titers to each serotype were significantly greater in 18- to 45-year-olds than 9- to 16-year-olds for all comparisons. The four methods estimated VE against DENV-Any at 75.3-86.0% (95% CIs spanning 52.5-100%) for bridging population 1 and 68.4-77.5% (95% CIs spanning 42.3-88.5%) for bridging population 2. The vaccine efficacy against serotype 1, 2, 3, and 4 was estimated at 56.9-76.9%, 68.3-85.8%, 91.4-95.0%, and 93.2-100% (bridging population 1) and 44.5-66.9%, 53.2-69.2%, 79.8-92.0%, and 90.6-95.0% (bridging population 2), respectively; thus, CYD-TDV would likely confer improved efficacy in adults than 9- to 16-year-olds. Using the same methods, we predicted VE against hospitalized DENV-Any over 72 months of follow-up, with estimates 59.1-73.5% (95% CIs spanning 40.9-92.2%) for bridging population 1 and 50.9-65.9% (95% CIs spanning 38.1-82.1%) for bridging population 2.

A Meta-analysis of Passive Immunization Studies Shows that Serum-Neutralizing Antibody Titer Associates with Protection against SHIV Challenge

Passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) have been shown to protect non-human primates (NHPs) against chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) infection. With data from multiple non-human primate SHIV challenge studies that used single bNAbs, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between predicted serum 50% neutralization titer (ID50) against the challenge virus and infection outcome. In a logistic model that adjusts for bNAb epitopes and challenge viruses, serum ID50 had a highly significant effect on infection risk (p < 0.001). The estimated ID50 to achieve 50%, 75%, and 95% protection was 91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 55, 153), 219 (117, 410), and 685 (319, 1471), respectively. This analysis indicates that serum neutralizing titer against the relevant virus is a key parameter of protection and that protection from acquisition by a single bNAb might require substantial levels of neutralization at the time of exposure.

Vaccine-Induced Antibodies Mediate Higher Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity After Interleukin-15 Pretreatment of Natural Killer Effector Cells

The secondary analyses for correlates of risk of infection in the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial implicated vaccine-induced antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses in the observed protection, highlighting the importance of assessing such responses in ongoing and future HIV-1 vaccine trials. However, in vitro assays that detect ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 infected seropositive individuals are not always effective at detecting ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 vaccine recipients. In vivo, ADCC-mediating antibodies must operate at the site of infection, where effector cells are recruited and activated by a local milieu of chemokines and cytokines. Based on previous findings that interleukin 15 (IL-15) secretion increases during acute HIV-1 infection and enhances NK cell-mediated cytotoxicity, we hypothesized that IL-15 pretreatment of NK effector cells could be used to improve killing of infected cells by vaccine-induced antibodies capable of mediating ADCC. Using the HIV-1 infectious molecular clone (IMC)-infected target cell assay along with plasma samples from HIV-1 vaccine recipients, we found that IL-15 treatment of effector cells improved the ability of the vaccine-induced antibodies to recruit effector cells for ADCC. Through immunophenotyping experiments, we showed that this improved killing was likely due to IL-15 mediated activation of NK effector cells and higher intracellular levels of perforin and granzyme B in the IL-15 pretreated NK cells. We also found that using a 4-fold dilution series of plasma and subtraction of pre-vaccination responses resulted in lowest response rates among placebo recipients and significant separation between treatment groups. This represents the first attempt to utilize IL-15-treated effector cells and optimized analytical approaches to improve the detection of HIV-1 vaccine-induced ADCC responses and will inform analyses of future HIV vaccine clinical trials.

Fc Gamma Receptor Polymorphisms Modulated the Vaccine Effect on HIV-1 Risk in the HVTN 505 HIV Vaccine Trial

HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 505 was a phase 2b efficacy trial of a DNA/recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) HIV vaccine regimen. Although the trial was stopped early for lack of overall efficacy, later correlates of risk and sieve analyses generated the hypothesis that the DNA/rAd5 vaccine regimen protected some vaccinees from HIV infection yet enhanced HIV infection risk for others. Here, we assessed whether and how host Fc gamma receptor (FcγR) genetic variations influenced the DNA/rAd5 vaccine regimen's effect on HIV infection risk. We found that vaccine receipt significantly increased HIV acquisition compared with placebo receipt among participants carrying the FCGR2C-TATA haplotype (comprising minor alleles of four FCGR2C single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] sites) (hazard ratio [HR] = 9.79, P = 0.035) but not among participants without the haplotype (HR = 0.86, P = 0.67); the interaction of vaccine and haplotype effect was significant (P = 0.034). Similarly, vaccine receipt increased HIV acquisition compared with placebo receipt among participants carrying the FCGR3B-AGA haplotype (comprising minor alleles of the 3 FCGR3B SNPs) (HR = 2.78, P = 0.058) but not among participants without the haplotype (HR = 0.73, P = 0.44); again, the interaction of vaccine and haplotype was significant (P = 0.047). The FCGR3B-AGA haplotype also influenced whether a combined Env-specific CD8+ T-cell polyfunctionality score and IgG response correlated significantly with HIV risk; an FCGR2A SNP and two FCGR2B SNPs influenced whether anti-gp140 antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis correlated significantly with HIV risk. These results provide further evidence that Fc gamma receptor genetic variations may modulate HIV vaccine effects and immune function after HIV vaccination.IMPORTANCE By analyzing data from the HVTN 505 efficacy trial of a DNA/recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) vaccine regimen, we found that host genetics, specifically Fc gamma receptor genetic variations, influenced whether receiving the DNA/rAd5 regimen was beneficial, neutral, or detrimental to an individual with respect to HIV-1 acquisition risk. Moreover, Fc gamma receptor genetic variations influenced immune responses to the DNA/rAd5 vaccine regimen. Thus, Fc gamma receptor genetic variations should be considered in the analysis of future HIV vaccine trials and the development of HIV vaccines.

Modification of the Association Between T-Cell Immune Responses and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection Risk by Vaccine-Induced Antibody Responses in the HVTN 505 Trial

Background

HVTN 505 was a human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) preventive vaccine efficacy trial of a DNA/recombinant adenovirus serotype 5 (rAd5) vaccine regimen. We assessed antibody responses measured 1 month after final vaccination (month 7) as correlates of HIV-1 acquisition risk.

Methods

Binding antibody responses were quantified in serum samples from 25 primary endpoint vaccine cases (diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between month 7 and month 24) and 125 randomly sampled frequency-matched vaccine controls (HIV-1 negative at month 24). We prespecified for a primary analysis tier 6 antibody response biomarkers that measure immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) binding to Env proteins and 2 previously assessed T-cell response biomarkers.

Results

Envelope-specific IgG responses were significantly correlated with decreased HIV-1 risk. Moreover, the interaction of IgG responses and Env-specific CD8+ T-cell polyfunctionality score had a highly significant association with HIV-1 risk after adjustment for multiple comparisons.

Conclusions

Vaccinees with higher levels of Env IgG have significantly decreased HIV-1 risk when CD8+ T-cell responses are low. Moreover, vaccinees with high CD8+ T-cell responses generally have low risk, and those with low CD8+ T-cell and low Env antibody responses have high risk. These findings suggest the critical importance of inducing a robust IgG Env response when the CD8+ T-cell response is low.

Combining Viral Genetics and Statistical Modeling to Improve HIV-1 Time-of-infection Estimation towards Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy Assessment

Knowledge of the time of HIV-1 infection and the multiplicity of viruses that establish HIV-1 infection is crucial for the in-depth analysis of clinical prevention efficacy trial outcomes. Better estimation methods would improve the ability to characterize immunological and genetic sequence correlates of efficacy within preventive efficacy trials of HIV-1 vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We developed new methods for infection timing and multiplicity estimation using maximum likelihood estimators that shift and scale (calibrate) estimates by fitting true infection times and founder virus multiplicities to a linear regression model with independent variables defined by data on HIV-1 sequences, viral load, diagnostics, and sequence alignment statistics. Using Poisson models of measured mutation counts and phylogenetic trees, we analyzed longitudinal HIV-1 sequence data together with diagnostic and viral load data from the RV217 and CAPRISA 002 acute HIV-1 infection cohort studies. We used leave-one-out cross validation to evaluate the prediction error of these calibrated estimators versus that of existing estimators and found that both infection time and founder multiplicity can be estimated with improved accuracy and precision by calibration. Calibration considerably improved all estimators of time since HIV-1 infection, in terms of reducing bias to near zero and reducing root mean squared error (RMSE) to 5-10 days for sequences collected 1-2 months after infection. The calibration of multiplicity assessments yielded strong improvements with accurate predictions (ROC-AUC above 0.85) in all cases. These results have not yet been validated on external data, and the best-fitting models are likely to be less robust than simpler models to variation in sequencing conditions. For all evaluated models, these results demonstrate the value of calibration for improved estimation of founder multiplicity and of time since HIV-1 infection.

HAI and NAI titer correlates of inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccine efficacy

BACKGROUND

High hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers are generally associated with reduced influenza risk. While repeated influenza vaccination reduces seroresponse, vaccine effectiveness is not always reduced.

METHODS

During the 2007-2008 influenza season, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial (FLUVACS) evaluated the efficacies of live-attenuated (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV) among healthy adults aged 18-49 in Michigan; IIV vaccine efficacy (VE) and LAIV VE against influenza disease were estimated at 68% and 36%. Using the principal stratification/VE moderation framework, we analyzed data from this trial to assess how each VE varied by HAI or NAI responses to vaccination observed for vaccinated individuals and predicted counterfactually for placebo recipients. We also assessed how each VE varied with pre-vaccination/baseline variables including HAI titer, NAI titer, and vaccination history.

RESULTS

IIV VE appeared to increase with Day 30 post-vaccination HAI titer, albeit not significantly (p=0.20 and estimated VE 14.4%, 70.5%, and 85.5% at titer below the assay lower quantification limit, 512, and 4096 (maximum)). Moreover, IIV VE increased significantly with Day 30 post-vaccination NAI titer (p=0.040), with estimated VE zero at titer 10 and 92.2% at highest titer 640. There was no evidence that fold-change in post-vaccination HAI or NAI titer associated with IIV VE (p=0.76, 0.38). For LAIV, there was no evidence that VE associated with post-vaccination or fold-rise HAI or NAI titers (p-values >0.40). For IIV, VE increased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously vaccinated, but VE decreased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously unvaccinated. In contrast, for LAIV, VE did not depend on previous vaccination or baseline HAI or NAI titer.

CONCLUSIONS

Future efficacy trials should measure baseline and post-vaccination antibody titers in both vaccine and control/placebo recipients, enabling analyses to better elucidate correlates of vaccine- and natural-protection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00538512. October 1, 2007.

Prediction of VRC01 neutralization sensitivity by HIV-1 gp160 sequence features

The broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 is being evaluated for its efficacy to prevent HIV-1 infection in the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. A secondary objective of AMP utilizes sieve analysis to investigate how VRC01 prevention efficacy (PE) varies with HIV-1 envelope (Env) amino acid (AA) sequence features. An exhaustive analysis that tests how PE depends on every AA feature with sufficient variation would have low statistical power. To design an adequately powered primary sieve analysis for AMP, we modeled VRC01 neutralization as a function of Env AA sequence features of 611 HIV-1 gp160 pseudoviruses from the CATNAP database, with objectives: (1) to develop models that best predict the neutralization readouts; and (2) to rank AA features by their predictive importance with classification and regression methods. The dataset was split in half, and machine learning algorithms were applied to each half, each analyzed separately using cross-validation and hold-out validation. We selected Super Learner, a nonparametric ensemble-based cross-validated learning method, for advancement to the primary sieve analysis. This method predicted the dichotomous resistance outcome of whether the IC50 neutralization titer of VRC01 for a given Env pseudovirus is right-censored (indicating resistance) with an average validated AUC of 0.868 across the two hold-out datasets. Quantitative log IC50 was predicted with an average validated R2 of 0.355. Features predicting neutralization sensitivity or resistance included 26 surface-accessible residues in the VRC01 and CD4 binding footprints, the length of gp120, the length of Env, the number of cysteines in gp120, the number of cysteines in Env, and 4 potential N-linked glycosylation sites; the top features will be advanced to the primary sieve analysis. This modeling framework may also inform the study of VRC01 in the treatment of HIV-infected persons.

Weighing the Evidence of Efficacy of Oral PrEP for HIV Prevention in Women in Southern Africa

As oral tenofovir-based regimens for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are adopted as standard of care for HIV prevention, their utilization in clinical trials among women in southern Africa will require an accurate estimate of oral PrEP efficacy in this population. This information is critical for women in choosing this prevention strategy, and in public health policy making. Estimates of the efficacy of oral PrEP regimens containing tenofovir have varied widely across trials that enrolled women, with some studies reporting high efficacy and others reporting no efficacy. Although poor adherence is strongly associated with lack of efficacy, other factors, such as mode of transmission (sexual vs. parenteral), predominant HIV subtype (C vs. non-C), intensity of exposure, and percentage of stable serodiscordant couples, may also contribute to the variation in efficacy estimates. In this article, we evaluate the evidence for PrEP efficacy in women and propose potential explanations for the observed differences in efficacy among studies. Our review emphasizes the need to continue to refine estimates of efficacy and effectiveness of tenofovir-based oral PrEP so as to best develop the next generation of HIV prevention tools, and to inform public policies directed toward HIV prevention.

Modeling cumulative overall prevention efficacy for the VRC01 phase 2b efficacy trials

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials are assessing whether intravenously-administered VRC01 (10 mg/kg or 30 mg/kg vs placebo) can prevent HIV infection. In a modeling exercise, we used two models to predict the overall prevention efficacy (PE) of each VRC01 dose in preventing HIV infection. For the first per-exposure PE model, parameters were estimated from studies where nonhuman primates (NHPs) were administered high-dose intra-rectal simian-human immunodeficiency virus challenge two days post-VRC01 infusion at various dosages ("NHP model"). To account for the fact that humans may require greater VRC01 concentration to achieve the same level of protection, we next assumed that a 5-fold greater VRC01 serum concentration would be needed to provide the same level of per-exposure PE as seen in the NHP data ("5-fold model"). For the 10 mg/kg regimen, the 5-fold and NHP models predict an overall PE of 37% and 64%, respectively; for the 30 mg/kg regimen, the two models predict an overall PE of 53% and 82%, respectively. Our results support that VRC01 may plausibly confer positive PE in the AMP trials. Given the lack of available knowledge and data to verify the assumptions undergirding our modeling framework, its quantitative predictions of overall PE are preliminary. Its current main applications are to supplement decisions to advance mAb regimens to efficacy trials, and to enable mAb regimen ranking by their potential for PE in humans.