Mortality From Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children Under 2 Years of Age: A Prospective Community Cohort Study in Rural Maharashtra, India

Risk factors for the development of severe or very severe respiratory syncytial virus-related lower respiratory tract infection in Indian infants: A cohort study in Melghat, India

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is undoubtedly the single most important cause of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) globally. While new prevention measures in young infants have become available, their use in developing countries is likely many years away. While risk factors for severe or very severe RSV LRTI in impoverished rural areas likely differ to urban areas, there are very few studies, especially those conducted in India, the major country contributing to the global burden of disease.

METHODS

Active surveillance for acute LRTI in enrolled infants and children <2 years of age, was conducted through weekly home visits in 93 villages of Melghat, India, from August 2016 to December 2020. Local hospitals and primary health centres were surveyed for admissions of enrolled subjects. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from children with severe, or very severe LRTIs and all who died, with RSV testing using nucleic acid tests at ICMR, National Institute of Virology Pune. Risk factors for both RSV associated and non-RSV associated, severe and very severe LRTI were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 483 severe or very severe RSV LRTI cases and 2807 non-RSV severe or very severe LRTI infections in a cohort of 13,318 children. Weight for age z-score ≤-2, the use of kerosene or wood for cooking, obtaining drinking water from a public tap and low gestational age significantly increased the risk of RSV LRTI. A higher wealth score index and water purification were protective. Comparison with non-RSV LRTI showed male sex as an additional risk factor. The analysis highlighted the risk of kerosene use [OR = 17.8 (3.0-104.4) (p ≤ 0.001)] and [OR = 3.4 (0.8-14.4) (p ≤ 0.05)] for RSV and non-RSV LRTIs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Nutritional status and environmental air quality are predisposing factors for developing an RSV LRI in young children, factors which are amenable to environmental and behavioural interventions.

Cost of illness due to respiratory syncytial virus acute lower respiratory tract infection among infants hospitalized in Argentina

BACKGROUND

Information is scarce regarding the economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in low-resource settings. This study aimed to estimate the cost per episode of hospital admissions due to RSV severe disease in Argentina.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study that collected information regarding 256 infants under 12 months of age with acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRTI) due to RSV in two public hospitals of Buenos Aires between 2014 and 2016. Information on healthcare resource use was collected from the patient's report and its associated costs were estimated based on the financial database and account records of the hospitals. We estimated the total cost per hospitalization due to RSV using the health system perspective. The costs were estimated in US dollars as of December 2022 (1 US dollar = 170 Argentine pesos).

RESULTS

The mean costs per RSV hospitalization in infants was US$587.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] $535.24 - $640.33). The mean costs associated with pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission more than doubled from those at regular pediatric wards ($1,556.81 [95% CI $512.21 - $2,601.40] versus $556.53 [95% CI $514.59 - $598.48]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the direct economic impact of acute severe RSV infection on the public health system in Argentina. The estimates obtained from this study could be used to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of new preventive RSV interventions being developed.

Maternal vaccination against RSV can substantially reduce childhood mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: A mathematical modeling study

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in infants below 6 months of age. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the public health burden is substantial and resources are limited. It is critical to inform decision makers about effectiveness of new interventions.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model where individual RSV subtype A (RSV-A) and B (RSV-B) maternally derived neutralizing titers were predicted at time of birth after maternal vaccination with the RSV prefusion F protein-based vaccine. We estimated the subsequent duration of vaccine-induced immunity and compared this to the age at time of death distribution in the RSV GOLD Mortality Database to predict the potential impact of maternal vaccination on RSV-related childhood mortality. We used country-specific timing of antenatal care visits distributions and mortality estimates to make country-specific predictions for number of cases averted.

Findings

The model predicts that on average a neonate born at 40 weeks gestational age will be protected between 6 and 7 months from RSV-A and approximately 5 months from RSV-B related mortality. We estimated the potential impact of RSV-related mortality for in-hospital and out-of-hospital cases in LMICs and predicted that in 51 GAVI-eligible countries maternal vaccination could avert between 55% and 63% of the RSV-related in-hospital mortality cases below 6 months of age.

Interpretation

We show that maternal vaccination could substantially decrease RSV-A and RSV-B related in-hospital and out-of-hospital mortality in LMICs in the first 6 months of life.

Report of the WHO technical consultation on the evaluation of respiratory syncytial virus prevention cost effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries, April 7-8, 2022

Policymakers often rely on impact and cost-effectiveness evaluations to inform decisions about the introduction of health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, cost-effectiveness results for the same health intervention can differ by the choice of parameter inputs, modelling assumptions, and geography. Anticipating the near-term availability of new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention products, WHO convened a two-day virtual consultation in April 2022 with stakeholder groups and global experts in health economics, epidemiology, and vaccine implementation. The objective was to review methods, parameterization, and results of existing cost-effectiveness analyses for RSV prevention in LMICs; identify the most influential inputs and data limitations; and recommend and prioritize future data gathering and research to improve RSV prevention impact estimates in LMICs. Epidemiological parameters identified as both influential and uncertain were those associated with RSV hospitalization and death, specifically setting-specific hospitalization rates and RSV-attributable death rates. Influential economic parameters included product price, delivery costs, willingness-to-pay for health on the part of potential donors, and the cost of RSV-associated hospitalization. Some of the influential parameters identified at this meeting should be more precisely measured by further research. Other influential economic parameters that are highly uncertain may not be resolved, and it is appropriate to use sensitivity analyses to explore these within cost-effectiveness evaluations. This report highlights the presentations and major discussions of the meeting.

Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Verbal autopsy to assess causes of mortality among the economically productive age group in the tribal region of Melghat, central India

Background & Objectives

Verbal autopsy (VA) is the systematic and retrospective inquiry (from relatives) about the symptoms of an illness prior to death. In tribal India, 67-75 per cent of deaths occur at home with an unknown cause of death (CoD). Hence, the aim of this study was to determine the CoD in the 16-60 yr age group utilizing VA.

Methods

A prospective, community based longitudinal study was conducted in 32 tribal villages in the Melghat region of Maharashtra, between 2004 and 2020. Number of deaths and VAs in 16-60 yr age group were collected by village health workers (VHWs) and supervisors, verified by five different persons (internal-external) and cross-checked by three VA interpretation trained physicians. A modified version of WHO VA was used. Cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated.

Results

Of the 1011 deaths recorded, mortality in males was significantly higher than females (P<0.001). A total of 763 VAs were conducted which revealed that tuberculosis was the leading CoD, followed by jaundice, heart diseases, diarrhoea, central nervous system infections and suicide. Suicides were significantly more common among males than in females (P=0.046). Significantly, more deaths occurred during the monsoon (P=0.002), especially diarrhoeal deaths (P=0.024).

Interpretation & conclusions

The findings of this study suggest that, in Indian tribal areas, infectious diseases are the leading causes of morbidity and one of the major causes of deaths in economically productive age group. Intensified VHW-mediated interventions are required to reduce the premature deaths.

New respiratory syncytial virus immunization products in low- and middle-income countries: potential for cost-effective impact on a high burden of disease in young infants

As new, efficacious respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) immunization products reach the market, affordable pricing as well as improved estimation of disease burden and the full potential and cost effectiveness of RSV prevention in the hardest hit geographies in low- and middle-income countries are critical to inform country adoption and enable maximum impact against infant disease and mortality globally. The data reported in the special issue underscore the enormous burden, and associated cost, of RSV disease in young infants in several LMICs, including Kenya and South Africa, as well as the potential for RSV maternal vaccines or long-acting monoclonal antibodies, to be cost-effective and possibly even cost-saving.

Community-Minimal Invasive Tissue Sampling (cMITS) using a modified ambulance for ascertaining the cause of death: A novel approach piloted in a remote inaccessible rural area in India

BACKGROUND

Melghat in India is a hilly, forested, difficult to access, impoverished rural area in northeast part of Maharashtra (Central India) with difficult healthcare access. Melghat has very high Mortality rates, because of grossly inadequate medical facilities. (1) Home deaths contribute to 67% of deaths,(2) which are difficult to track and where cause of death is mostly unknown.

METHODS

A feasibility study was carried out in 93 rural villages and 5 hospitals to assess feasibility of tracking real-time community mortality and to ascertain cause of death in 0-60 months and 16-60 years age group using Minimal Invasive Tissue Sampling (MITS) in purpose-modified ambulance. We used the network of village health workers (VHW)s, to establish real-time community mortality tracking. Upon receipt of reports of home death, we performed MITS within 4 h of death in the vicinity of the village.

RESULTS

We conducted 16 MITS. Nine, in MITS ambulance in community and seven at MAHAN hospital. The acceptance rate of MITS was 59.26%. Standard operating procedure (SOP) of conducting community MITS in an ambulance, is established. Major challenges were, Covid19 lockdown, reluctance of tribal parents for consent for MITS due to illiteracy, superstitions and fear of organ removal. Ambulance was an easy to reach transport means in remote area, provided a well-designed and discrete facility to perform MITS in community, winning the confidence of bereaved family. This has reduced time interval between time of death and performing MITS.

CONCLUSIONS

MITS in purpose-modified Ambulance can be used worldwide for community MITS especially in areas which are remote and lack healthcare access. This solution needs to be assessed in different cultural settings to document culture specific issues.

The burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa, 2011 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect the very young infant against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated illness are effective for limited time periods. We aimed to estimate age-specific burden to guide implementation strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses.

METHODS

We combined case-based surveillance and ecological data to generate a national estimate of the burden of RSV-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in South African children aged < 5 years (2011-2016), including adjustment for attributable fraction. We estimated the RSV burden by month of life in the < 1-year age group, by 3-month intervals until 2 years, and then 12 monthly intervals to < 5 years for medically and non-medically attended illness.

RESULTS

We estimated a mean annual total (medically and non-medically attended) of 264,112 (95% confidence interval (CI) 134,357-437,187) cases of RSV-associated ARI and 96,220 (95% CI 66,470-132,844) cases of RSV-associated SARI (4.7% and 1.7% of the population aged < 5 years, respectively). RSV-associated ARI incidence was highest in 2-month-old infants (18,361/100,000 population, 95% CI 9336-28,466). The highest incidence of RSV-associated SARI was in the < 1-month age group 14,674/100,000 (95% CI 11,175-19,645). RSV-associated deaths were highest in the first and second month of life (110.8 (95% CI 74.8-144.5) and 111.3 (86.0-135.8), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the high burden of RSV-associated illness, specifically SARI cases in young infants, maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibody products delivered at birth could prevent significant RSV-associated disease burden.

RSV through the COVID-19 pandemic: Burden, shifting epidemiology, and implications for the future

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) represents a major global healthcare burden, particularly in those under 5 years of age. There is no available vaccine, with treatment limited to supportive care or palivizumab for high-risk children. Additionally, although a causal relationship has not been established, RSV has been associated with the development of asthma or wheezing in some children. The COVID-19 pandemic and the introduction of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have caused substantial changes to RSV seasonality and epidemiology. Many countries have experienced an absence of RSV during the time of a typical season, followed by an out-of-season surge upon relaxation of NPI use. These dynamics have disrupted traditional RSV disease patterns and assumptions, but also provide a unique opportunity to learn more about the transmission of RSV and other respiratory viruses, as well as inform future approaches to RSV preventive strategies. Here, we review the RSV burden and epidemiology through the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how new data may affect future decisions regarding RSV prevention.

Responding to Higher-Than-Expected Infant Mortality Rates from Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV): Improving Treatment and Reporting Strategies

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has a major role in respiratory infections in young infants around the world. However, substantial progress has been made in recent years in the field of RSV. A wide variety of observational studies and clinical trials published in the past decade provide a thorough idea of the health and economic burden of RSV disease in the developing world. In this review, we discuss the impact of RSV burden of disease, major gaps in disease estimations, and challenges in generating new therapeutic options and an immune response against the virus, and briefly describe next generation technologies that are being evaluated.

Aetiology of childhood pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries in the era of vaccination: a systematic review

Background

This systematic review aimed to describe common aetiologies of severe and non-severe community acquired pneumonia among children aged 1 month to 9 years in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed online databases for studies published from January 2010 to August 30, 2020. We included studies on acute community-acquired pneumonia or acute lower respiratory tract infection with ≥1 year of continuous data collection; clear consistent case definition for pneumonia; >1 specimen type (except empyema studies where only pleural fluid was required); testing for >1 pathogen including both viruses and bacteria. Two researchers reviewed the studies independently. Results were presented as a narrative summary. Quality of evidence was assessed with the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. The study was registered on PROSPERO [CRD42020206830].

Results

We screened 5184 records; 1305 duplicates were removed. The remaining 3879 titles and abstracts were screened. Of these, 557 articles were identified for full-text review, and 55 met the inclusion criteria - 10 case-control studies, three post-mortem studies, 11 surveillance studies, eight cohort studies, five cross-sectional studies, 12 studies with another design and six studies that included patients with pleural effusions or empyema. Studies which described disease by severity showed higher bacterial detection (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus) in severe vs non-severe cases. The most common virus causing severe disease was respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Pathogens varied by age, with RSV and adenovirus more common in younger children. Influenza and atypical bacteria were more common in children 5-14 years than younger children. Malnourished and HIV-infected children had higher rates of pneumonia due to bacteria or tuberculosis.

Conclusions

Several viral and bacterial pathogens were identified as important targets for prevention and treatment. Bacterial pathogens remain an important cause of moderate to severe disease, particularly in children with comorbidities despite widespread PCV and Hib vaccination.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in 2019: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection in young children. We previously estimated that in 2015, 33·1 million episodes of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection occurred in children aged 0-60 months, resulting in a total of 118 200 deaths worldwide. Since then, several community surveillance studies have been done to obtain a more precise estimation of RSV associated community deaths. We aimed to update RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality at global, regional, and national levels in children aged 0-60 months for 2019, with focus on overall mortality and narrower infant age groups that are targeted by RSV prophylactics in development.

METHODS

In this systematic analysis, we expanded our global RSV disease burden dataset by obtaining new data from an updated search for papers published between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2020, from MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, Wanfang, and ChongqingVIP. We also included unpublished data from RSV GEN collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for children aged 0-60 months with RSV as primary infection with acute lower respiratory infection in community settings, or acute lower respiratory infection necessitating hospital admission; reported data for at least 12 consecutive months, except for in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR) or for where RSV seasonality is well-defined; and reported incidence rate, hospital admission rate, RSV positive proportion in acute lower respiratory infection hospital admission, or in-hospital CFR. Studies were excluded if case definition was not clearly defined or not consistently applied, RSV infection was not laboratory confirmed or based on serology alone, or if the report included fewer than 50 cases of acute lower respiratory infection. We applied a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) to estimate RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality both globally and regionally (by country development status and by World Bank Income Classification) in 2019. We estimated country-level RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence through a risk-factor based model. We developed new models (through GLMM) that incorporated the latest RSV community mortality data for estimating overall RSV mortality. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021252400).

FINDINGS

In addition to 317 studies included in our previous review, we identified and included 113 new eligible studies and unpublished data from 51 studies, for a total of 481 studies. We estimated that globally in 2019, there were 33·0 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 25·4-44·6 million), 3·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (2·9-4·6 million), 26 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (15 100-49 100), and 101 400 RSV-attributable overall deaths (84 500-125 200) in children aged 0-60 months. In infants aged 0-6 months, we estimated that there were 6·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (4·6-9·7 million), 1·4 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (1·0-2·0 million), 13 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (6800-28 100), and 45 700 RSV-attributable overall deaths (38 400-55 900). 2·0% of deaths in children aged 0-60 months (UR 1·6-2·4) and 3·6% of deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months (3·0-4·4) were attributable to RSV. More than 95% of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes and more than 97% of RSV-attributable deaths across all age bands were in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

INTERPRETATION

RSV contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality burden globally in children aged 0-60 months, especially during the first 6 months of life and in LMICs. We highlight the striking overall mortality burden of RSV disease worldwide, with one in every 50 deaths in children aged 0-60 months and one in every 28 deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months attributable to RSV. For every RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital death, we estimate approximately three more deaths attributable to RSV in the community. RSV passive immunisation programmes targeting protection during the first 6 months of life could have a substantial effect on reducing RSV disease burden, although more data are needed to understand the implications of the potential age-shifts in peak RSV burden to older age when these are implemented.

FUNDING

EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

Identifying the research, advocacy, policy and implementation needs for the prevention and management of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infection in low- and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

The high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in young children disproportionately occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The PROUD (Preventing RespiratOry syncytial virUs in unDerdeveloped countries) Taskforce of 24 RSV worldwide experts assessed key needs for RSV prevention in LMICs, including vaccine and newer preventive measures.

METHODS

A global, survey-based study was undertaken in 2021. An online questionnaire was developed following three meetings of the Taskforce panellists wherein factors related to RSV infection, its prevention and management were identified using iterative questioning. Each factor was scored, by non-panellists interested in RSV, on a scale of zero (very-low-relevance) to 100 (very-high-relevance) within two scenarios: (1) Current and (2) Future expectations for RSV management.

RESULTS

Ninety questionnaires were completed: 70 by respondents (71.4% physicians; 27.1% researchers/scientists) from 16 LMICs and 20 from nine high-income (HI) countries (90.0% physicians; 5.0% researchers/scientists), as a reference group. Within LMICs, RSV awareness was perceived to be low, and management was not prioritised. Of the 100 factors scored, those related to improved diagnosis particularly access to affordable point-of-care diagnostics, disease burden data generation, clinical and general education, prompt access to new interventions, and engagement with policymakers/payers were identified of paramount importance. There was a strong need for clinical education and local data generation in the lowest economies, whereas upper-middle income countries were more closely aligned with HI countries in terms of current RSV service provision.

CONCLUSION

Seven key actions for improving RSV prevention and management in LMICs are proposed.

The Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children Under 2 Years of Age in a Rural Community in Maharashtra, India

BACKGROUND

Globally, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common cause of acute lower tract infection (LRTI) in children younger than 2 years of age, but there are scant population-based studies on the burden of RSV illness in rural communities and no community studies in preterm infants.

METHODS

Active surveillance of LRTI was performed in the community and hospital setting for the population of 93 tribal villages in Melghat, Central India, over 4 respiratory seasons. A nasopharyngeal swab was obtained from cases presenting as a severe LRTI for molecular analysis of respiratory pathogens including RSVA and B.

RESULTS

High rates of RSV-associated LRTI were found in preterm and term infants beyond 6 months of age, extending into the second year of life. Community severe RSV LRTI rates for 0-11 months of age was 22.4 (18.6-27.0)/1000 child-years (CY) and the hospital-associated rate was 14.1 (11.1-17.8)/1000 CY. For preterm infants, these rates were 26.2 (17.8-38.5)/1000 CY and 12.6 (7.2-22.0)/1000 CY. Comparable rates in the first 6 months were 15.9 (11.8-21.4)/1000 CY and 12.9 (9.3-18.0)/1000 CY in term infants and 26.3 (15.4-45.0)/1000 CY and 10.1 (4.2-24.2)/1000 CY for preterms. The single RSV B season had higher incidences of RSV LRTI in every age group than the 2 RSV A seasons in both preterm and term infants. There were 11 deaths, all term infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies restricted to the healthcare settings significantly underestimate the burden of RSV LRTI and preterm and term infants have comparable burdens of disease in this rural community.