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Bean DJ, Monroe J, Liang YM, Borberg E, Senussi Y, Swank Z, Chalise S, Walt D, Weinberg J, Sagar M. Heterotypic immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 infection but not COVID-19 vaccination associates with lower endemic coronavirus incidence. Sci Transl Med 2024; 16:eado7588. [PMID: 38865483 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.ado7588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 06/14/2024]
Abstract
Immune responses from prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 vaccination mitigate disease severity, but they do not fully prevent subsequent infections, especially from genetically divergent strains. We examined the incidence of and immune differences against human endemic coronaviruses (eCoVs) as a proxy for response against future genetically heterologous coronaviruses (CoVs). We assessed differences in symptomatic eCoV and non-CoV respiratory disease incidence among those with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection or previous COVID-19 vaccination but no documented SARS-CoV-2 infection or neither exposure. Retrospective cohort analyses suggest that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, but not previous COVID-19 vaccination alone, associates with a lower incidence of subsequent symptomatic eCoV infection. There was no difference in non-CoV incidence, implying that the observed difference was eCoV specific. In a second cohort where both cellular and humoral immunity were measured, those with prior SARS-CoV-2 spike protein exposure had lower eCoV-directed neutralizing antibodies, suggesting that neutralization is not responsible for the observed decreased eCoV disease. The three groups had similar cellular responses against the eCoV spike protein and nucleocapsid antigens. However, CD8+ T cell responses to the nonstructural eCoV proteins nsp12 and nsp13 were higher in individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared with the other groups. This association between prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and decreased incidence of eCoV disease may therefore be due to a boost in CD8+ T cell responses against eCoV nsp12 and nsp13, suggesting that incorporation of nonstructural viral antigens in a future pan-CoV vaccine may improve vaccine efficacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- David J Bean
- Department of Virology, Immunology and Microbiology, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Janet Monroe
- Department of Medicine, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Yan Mei Liang
- Department of Medicine, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Ella Borberg
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Yasmeen Senussi
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Zoe Swank
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Sujata Chalise
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - David Walt
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Janice Weinberg
- Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Manish Sagar
- Department of Virology, Immunology and Microbiology, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118, USA
- Department of Medicine, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118, USA
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Richard L, Nisenbaum R, Colwill K, Mishra S, Dayam RM, Liu M, Pedersen C, Gingras AC, Hwang SW. Enhancing detection of SARS-CoV-2 re-infections using longitudinal sero-monitoring: demonstration of a methodology in a cohort of people experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:125. [PMID: 38302878 PMCID: PMC10835952 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09013-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate estimation of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection is crucial to understanding the connection between infection burden and adverse outcomes. However, relying solely on PCR testing results in underreporting. We present a novel approach that includes longitudinal serologic data, and compared it against testing alone among people experiencing homelessness. METHODS We recruited 736 individuals experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada, between June and September 2021. Participants completed surveys and provided saliva and blood serology samples every three months over 12 months of follow-up. Re-infections were defined as: positive PCR or rapid antigen test (RAT) results > 90 days after initial infection; new serologic evidence of infection among individuals with previous infection who sero-reverted; or increases in anti-nucleocapsid in seropositive individuals whose levels had begun to decrease. RESULTS Among 381 participants at risk, we detected 37 re-infections through PCR/RAT and 98 re-infections through longitudinal serology. The comprehensive method identified 37.4 re-infection events per 100 person-years, more than four-fold more than the rate detected through PCR/RAT alone (9.0 events/100 person-years). Almost all test-confirmed re-infections (85%) were also detectable by longitudinal serology. CONCLUSIONS Longitudinal serology significantly enhances the detection of SARS-CoV-2 re-infections. Our findings underscore the importance and value of combining data sources for effective research and public health surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucie Richard
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond St, M5B1W8, Toronto, ON, Canada.
| | - Rosane Nisenbaum
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond St, M5B1W8, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St, Toronto, Canada
| | - Karen Colwill
- Sinai Health, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, 600 University Ave, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond St, M5B1W8, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, Canada
| | - Roya M Dayam
- Sinai Health, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, 600 University Ave, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Michael Liu
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond St, M5B1W8, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Harvard Medical School, 25 Shattuck St, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Cheryl Pedersen
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond St, M5B1W8, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Anne-Claude Gingras
- Sinai Health, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, 600 University Ave, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Molecular Genetics, University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, Canada
| | - Stephen W Hwang
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond St, M5B1W8, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, Canada
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Binswanger IA, Narwaney KJ, Barrow JC, Albers KB, Bechtel L, Steiner CA, Ann Shoup J, Glanz JM. Association between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibody status and reinfection: A case-control study nested in a Colorado-based prospective cohort study. Prev Med Rep 2024; 37:102530. [PMID: 38205171 PMCID: PMC10776776 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2023.102530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2023] [Revised: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The association between the presence of detectable antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is not well established. The objective of this study was to determine the association between antibody seronegativity and reinfection. METHODS Participants in Colorado, USA, were recruited between June 15, 2020, and March 28, 2021, and encouraged to complete SARS-CoV-2 molecular ribonucleic acid (RNA) and serology testing for antibodies every 28 days for 10 months. Participants with reinfections (positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA test ≥ 90 days after the first positive RNA test) were matched to controls without reinfections by age, sex, date of the first positive RNA test, date of the last serology test, and serology test type. Using conditional logistic regression, case patients were compared to control patients on the last serologic test result, with adjustment for demographic and clinical confounders. RESULTS The cohort (n = 4,235) included 2,033 participants with ≥ 1 positive RNA test, of whom 120 had reinfection. Among the 80 case patients who could be matched, the last serologic test was negative in 12 of the cases (15.0 %) whereas the last serologic test was negative in 77 of 1,034 (7.5 %) controls. Seronegativity (adjusted OR [aOR] 2.24; 95 % CI 1.07, 4.68), Hispanic ethnicity (aOR 1.87; 95 % 1.10, 3.18), and larger household size (aOR 1.15; 95 % 1.01, 1.30 for each additional household member) were associated with reinfection. CONCLUSIONS Seronegative status, Hispanic ethnicity, and increasing household size were associated with reinfection. Serologic testing could be considered to reduce vaccine hesitancy in higher risk populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ingrid A. Binswanger
- Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, USA
- Colorado Permanente Medical Group, Denver, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, USA
- Department of Health Systems Science, Bernard J. Tyson Kaiser Permanente School of Medicine, Pasadena, USA
| | - Komal J. Narwaney
- Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, USA
| | | | | | - Laura Bechtel
- Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, USA
- Siemens-Healthineers, USA
| | - Claudia A. Steiner
- Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, USA
- Colorado Permanente Medical Group, Denver, USA
- Department of Health Systems Science, Bernard J. Tyson Kaiser Permanente School of Medicine, Pasadena, USA
| | - Jo Ann Shoup
- Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, USA
| | - Jason M. Glanz
- Institute for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Aurora, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, USA
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Vargas-De-León C, Cureño-Díaz MA, Salazar MI, Cruz-Cruz C, Loyola-Cruz MÁ, Durán-Manuel EM, Zamora-Pacheco ER, Bravata-Alcántara JC, Lugo-Zamudio GE, Fernández-Sánchez V, Bello-López JM, Ibáñez-Cervantes G. Neutralizing Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2: Importance of Comorbidities in Health Personnel against Reinfections. Viruses 2023; 15:2354. [PMID: 38140595 PMCID: PMC10747730 DOI: 10.3390/v15122354] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2023] [Revised: 11/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023] Open
Abstract
One of the priority lines of action to contain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was vaccination programs for healthcare workers. However, with the emergence of highly contagious strains, such as the Omicron variant, it was necessary to know the serological status of health personnel to make decisions for the application of reinforcements. The aim of this work was to determine the seroprevalence against SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare workers in a Mexican hospital after six months of the administration of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (two doses, 4 weeks apart) and to investigate the association between comorbidities, response to the vaccine, and reinfections. Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were determined using ELISA assays for 262 employees of Hospital Juárez de México with and without a history of COVID-19. A beta regression analysis was performed to study the associated comorbidities and their relationship with the levels of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Finally, an epidemiological follow-up was carried out to detect reinfections in this population. A significant difference in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was observed in workers with a history of COVID-19 prior to vaccination compared to those without a history of the disease (MD: 0.961 and SD: 0.049; <0.001). Beta regression showed that workers with a history of COVID-19 have greater protection compared to those without a history of the infection. Neutralizing antibodies were found to be decreased in alcoholic and diabetic subjects (80.1%). Notably, eight cases of Omicron reinfections were identified, and gender and obesity were associated with the presence of reinfections (6.41 OR; 95% BCa CI: 1.15, 105.0). The response to the vaccine was influenced by the history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated comorbidities. The above highlights the importance of prioritizing this segment of the population for reinforcements in periods of less than one year to guarantee their effectiveness against new variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cruz Vargas-De-León
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
- Laboratorio de Modelación Bioestadística para la Salud, Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación, Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México 07738, Mexico;
| | | | - Ma. Isabel Salazar
- Laboratorio Nacional de Vacunología y Virus Tropicales, Escuela Nacional de Ciencias Biológicas (ENCB), Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México 11340, México;
| | - Clemente Cruz-Cruz
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
| | - Miguel Ángel Loyola-Cruz
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
| | - Emilio Mariano Durán-Manuel
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
| | - Edwin Rodrigo Zamora-Pacheco
- Laboratorio de Modelación Bioestadística para la Salud, Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación, Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México 07738, Mexico;
| | | | | | - Verónica Fernández-Sánchez
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
| | - Juan Manuel Bello-López
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
| | - Gabriela Ibáñez-Cervantes
- División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México 07760, Mexico; (C.V.-D.-L.); (C.C.-C.); (M.Á.L.-C.); (E.M.D.-M.)
- Laboratorio de Modelación Bioestadística para la Salud, Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación, Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México 07738, Mexico;
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Ismail NF, Rahman AE, Kulkarni D, Zhu F, Wang X, del Carmen Morales G, Srivastava A, Allen KE, Spinardi J, Kyaw MH, Nair H. Incidence and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era: A global systematic review and meta-analysis. J Glob Health 2023; 13:06051. [PMID: 37994839 PMCID: PMC10667793 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.13.06051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background With the emergence of new variants and sub-lineages of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), reinfections can significantly impact herd immunity, vaccination policies, and decisions on other public health measures. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise the global evidence on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in the pre-Omicron era. Methods We searched five global databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, Global Health, WHO COVID-19) on 12 May 2022 and 28 July 2023 and three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, CQvip) on 16 October 2022 for articles reporting incidence and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection before the period of Omicron (B.1.1.529) predominance. We assessed risk of bias using Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools and conducted meta-analyses with random effects models to estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among initially infected cases and hospitalisation and mortality proportions among reinfected ones. Results We identified 7593 studies and extracted data from 64 included ones representing 21 countries. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was 1.16% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.33) based on 11 639 247 initially infected cases, with ≥45 days between the two infections. Healthcare providers (2.28%; 95% CI = 1.37-3.40) had a significantly higher risk of reinfection than the general population (1.00%; 95% CI = 0.81-1.20), while young adults aged 18 to 35 years (1.01%; 95% CI = 0.8-1.25) had a higher reinfection burden than other age groups (children <18 years old: 0.57%; 95% CI = 0.39-0.79, older adults aged 36-65 years old: 0.53%; 95% CI = 0.41-0.65, elderly >65 years old: 0.37%; 95% CI = 0.15-0.66). Among the reinfected cases, 8.12% (95% CI = 5.30-11.39) were hospitalised, 1.31% (95% CI = 0.29-2.83) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 0.71% (95% CI = 0.02-2.01) died. Conclusions Our data suggest a relatively low risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era, but the risk of hospitalisation was relatively high among the reinfected cases. Considering the possibility of underdiagnosis, the reinfection burden may be underestimated. Registration PROSPERO: CRD42023449712.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nabihah Farhana Ismail
- Centre for Global Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Communicable Disease Control Unit, Public Health Department, Johor State, Malaysia
| | - Ahmed Ehsanur Rahman
- Centre for Global Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh
| | - Durga Kulkarni
- Centre for Global Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Fuyu Zhu
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xin Wang
- Centre for Global Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu, China
| | | | - Amit Srivastava
- Pfizer, Vaccines, Emerging Markets
- Orbital Therapeutics, United States of America
| | | | | | | | - Harish Nair
- Centre for Global Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu, China
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Franco-Luiz APM, Fernandes NMGS, Silva TBDS, Bernardes WPDOS, Westin MR, Santos TG, Fernandes GDR, Simões TC, Silva EFE, Gava SG, Alves BM, de Carvalho Melo M, da Silva-Pereira RA, Alves PA, Fonseca CT. Longitudinal study of humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 of health professionals in Brazil: the impact of booster dose and reinfection on antibody dynamics. Front Immunol 2023; 14:1220600. [PMID: 37520570 PMCID: PMC10376701 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2023.1220600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has had a major impact on health systems. Vaccines have been shown to be effective in improving the clinical outcome of COVID-19, but they are not able to fully prevent infection and reinfection, especially that caused by new variants. Methods Here, we tracked for 450 days the humoral immune response and reinfection in 52 healthcare workers from Brazil. Infection and reinfection were confirmed by RT-qPCR, while IgM and IgG antibody levels were monitored by rapid test. Results Of the 52 participants, 19 (36%) got reinfected during the follow-up period, all presenting mild symptoms. For all participants, IgM levels dropped sharply, with over 47% of them becoming seronegative by the 60th day. For IgG, 90% of the participants became seropositive within the first 30 days of follow-up. IgG antibodies also dropped after this period reaching the lowest level on day 270 (68.5 ± 72.3, p<0.0001). Booster dose and reinfection increased the levels of both antibodies, with the interaction between them resulting in an increase in IgG levels of 130.3 arbitrary units. Conclusions Overall, our data indicate that acquired humoral immunity declines over time and suggests that IgM and IgG antibody levels are not associated with the prevention of reinfection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Paula Moreira Franco-Luiz
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Biologia e Imunologia de Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Nubia Monteiro Gonçalves Soares Fernandes
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Biologia e Imunologia de Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Thais Bárbara de Souza Silva
- Grupo de Imunologia de Doenças Virais, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | - Mateus Rodrigues Westin
- Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Thais Garcia Santos
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Biologia e Imunologia de Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Gabriel da Rocha Fernandes
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Informática de Biossistemas, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Taynãna César Simões
- Núcleo de Estudos em Saúde Pública e Envelhecimento, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Eduardo Fernandes E. Silva
- Serviço de capacitação em métodos quantitativos -SAMeQ, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Sandra Grossi Gava
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Helmintologia e Malacologia Médica, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Breno Magalhães Alves
- Centro de Vigilância em Saúde e Segurança do Paciente, Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Mariana de Carvalho Melo
- Serviço Especializado em Segurança e Medicina do Trabalho, Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Rosiane A. da Silva-Pereira
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Biologia e Imunologia de Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Pedro Augusto Alves
- Grupo de Imunologia de Doenças Virais, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Cristina Toscano Fonseca
- Grupo de Pesquisa em Biologia e Imunologia de Doenças Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
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Richard L, Nisenbaum R, Brown M, Liu M, Pedersen C, Jenkinson JIR, Mishra S, Baral S, Colwill K, Gingras AC, McGeer A, Hwang SW. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among People Experiencing Homelessness in Toronto, Canada. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e232774. [PMID: 36912833 PMCID: PMC10011938 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.2774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/14/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE People experiencing homelessness are at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Incident infection rates have yet to be established in these communities and are needed to inform infection prevention guidance and related interventions. OBJECTIVE To quantify the SARS-CoV-2 incident infection rate among people experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada, in 2021 and 2022 and to assess factors associated with incident infection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prospective cohort study was conducted among individuals aged 16 years and older who were randomly selected between June and September 2021 from 61 homeless shelters, temporary distancing hotels, and encampments in Toronto, Canada. EXPOSURES Self-reported housing characteristics, such as number sharing living space. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in summer 2021, defined as self-reported or polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- or serology-confirmed evidence of infection at or before the baseline interview, and SARS-CoV-2 incident infection, defined as self-reported or PCR- or serology-confirmed infection among participants without history of infection at baseline. Factors associated with infection were assessed using modified Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS The 736 participants (415 of whom did not have SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline and were included in the primary analysis) had a mean (SD) age of 46.1 (14.6) years; 486 (66.0%) self-identified as male. Of these, 224 (30.4% [95% CI, 27.4%-34.0%]) had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection by summer 2021. Of the remaining 415 participants with follow-up, 124 experienced infection within 6 months, representing an incident infection rate of 29.9% (95% CI, 25.7%-34.4%), or 5.8% (95% CI, 4.8%-6.8%) per person-month. Report after onset of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was associated with incident infection, with an adjusted rate ratio (aRR) of 6.28 (95% CI, 3.94-9.99). Other factors associated with incident infection included recent immigration to Canada (aRR, 2.74 [95% CI, 1.64-4.58]) and alcohol consumption over the past interval (aRR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.12-2.48]). Self-reported housing characteristics were not significantly associated with incident infection. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this longitudinal study of people experiencing homelessness in Toronto, SARS-CoV-2 incident infection rates were high in 2021 and 2022, particularly once the Omicron variant became dominant in the region. Increased focus on homelessness prevention is needed to more effectively and equitably protect these communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucie Richard
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Rosane Nisenbaum
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Michael Brown
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Michael Liu
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Cheryl Pedersen
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jesse I. R. Jenkinson
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Epidemiology and Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Stefan Baral
- Department of Epidemiology, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Karen Colwill
- Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Anne-Claude Gingras
- Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Allison McGeer
- Department of Microbiology, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Stephen W. Hwang
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of General Internal Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Mosnier E, Loubiere S, Monfardini E, Alibert A, Landier J, Ninoves L, Bosetti T, Auquier P, Mosnier M, Wakap SN, Warszawski J, Tinland A. Cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection within the homeless population: insights from a city-wide longitudinal study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e065734. [PMID: 36822808 PMCID: PMC9950589 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/25/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in a cohort of homeless people using survival analysis. Seroprevalence in the homeless community was also compared with that of the general population. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING Data were collected across two testing sessions, 3 months apart, during which each participant was tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and completed a face-to-face survey. PARTICIPANTS All homeless adults sleeping rough, in slums or squats, in emergency shelters or transitional accommodation in Marseille were eligible. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES Occurrence of a seroconversion event defined as a biologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Local data from a national seroprevalence survey were used for comparison between homeless people and the general population. RESULTS A total of 1249 people were included. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 6.0% (4.7-7.3) during the first session to 18.9% (16.0-21.7) during the second one, compared with 3.0% (1.9-4.2) and 6.5% (4.5-8.7) in the general population. Factors significantly associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 infection were: having stayed in emergency shelters (1.93 (1.18-3.15)), being an isolated parent (1.64 (1.07-2.52)) and having contact with more than 5-15 people per day (1.84 (1.27-2.67)). By contrast, smoking (0.46 (0.32-0.65)), having financial resources (0.70 (0.51-0.97)) and psychiatric or addictive comorbidities (0.52 (0.32-0.85)) were associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSION We confirm that homeless people have higher infection rates than the general population, with increased risk in emergency shelters. There is growing evidence that, in addition to usual preventive measures, public policies should pay attention to adapt the type of accommodation and overall approach of precariousness. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT04408131.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emilie Mosnier
- Department of Psychiatry, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille, Marseille, France
- Aix Marseille Univ, Inserm, IRD, SESSTIM, Sciences Economiques & Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale, ISSPAM, Marseille, France
| | - Sandrine Loubiere
- Department of Clinical Research and Innovation, Support Unit for clinical research and economic evaluation, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille, Marseille, France
- Aix-Marseille University, School of medicine - La Timone Medical Campus, UR3279: CEReSS - Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Marseille, France
| | - Elisabetta Monfardini
- Department of Clinical Research and Innovation, Support Unit for clinical research and economic evaluation, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille, Marseille, France
| | - Agathe Alibert
- Department of Clinical Research and Innovation, Support Unit for clinical research and economic evaluation, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille, Marseille, France
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, 3200 rue Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
| | - Jordi Landier
- Aix Marseille Univ, Inserm, IRD, SESSTIM, Sciences Economiques & Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale, ISSPAM, Marseille, France
| | - Laeticia Ninoves
- Unité des Virus Émergents (UVE: Aix-Marseille Univ-IRD 190-Inserm 1207), Marseille, France
| | - Thomas Bosetti
- Médecins du Monde - Doctors of the World, Marseille, France
| | - Pascal Auquier
- Department of Clinical Research and Innovation, Support Unit for clinical research and economic evaluation, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille, Marseille, France
- Aix-Marseille University, School of medicine - La Timone Medical Campus, UR3279: CEReSS - Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Marseille, France
| | - Marine Mosnier
- Médecins du Monde - Doctors of the World, Marseille, France
| | | | | | - Aurelie Tinland
- Department of Psychiatry, Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille, Marseille, France
- Aix-Marseille University, School of medicine - La Timone Medical Campus, UR3279: CEReSS - Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Marseille, France
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9
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Flacco ME, Acuti Martellucci C, Baccolini V, De Vito C, Renzi E, Villari P, Manzoli L. Risk of reinfection and disease after SARS-CoV-2 primary infection: Meta-analysis. Eur J Clin Invest 2022; 52:e13845. [PMID: 35904405 PMCID: PMC9353414 DOI: 10.1111/eci.13845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2022] [Revised: 07/09/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION A precise estimate of the frequency and severity of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections would be critical to optimize restriction and vaccination policies for the hundreds of millions previously infected subjects. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of reinfection and COVID-19 following primary infection. METHODS We searched MedLine, Scopus and preprint repositories for cohort studies evaluating the onset of new infections among baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects. Random-effect meta-analyses of proportions were stratified by gender, exposure risk, vaccination status, viral strain, time between episodes, and reinfection definition. RESULTS Ninety-one studies, enrolling 15,034,624 subjects, were included. Overall, 158,478 reinfections were recorded, corresponding to a pooled rate of 0.97% (95% CI: 0.71%-1.27%), with no substantial differences by definition criteria, exposure risk or gender. Reinfection rates were still 0.66% after ≥12 months from first infection, and the risk was substantially lower among vaccinated subjects (0.32% vs. 0.74% for unvaccinated individuals). During the first 3 months of Omicron wave, the reinfection rates reached 3.31%. Overall rates of severe/lethal COVID-19 were very low (2-7 per 10,000 subjects according to definition criteria) and were not affected by strain predominance. CONCLUSIONS A strong natural immunity follows the primary infection and may last for more than one year, suggesting that the risk and health care needs of recovered subjects might be limited. Although the reinfection rates considerably increased during the Omicron wave, the risk of a secondary severe or lethal disease remained very low. The risk-benefit profile of multiple vaccine doses for this subset of population needs to be carefully evaluated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Elena Flacco
- Department of Environmental and Preventive Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
| | | | - Valentina Baccolini
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Corrado De Vito
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Erika Renzi
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Paolo Villari
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
| | - Lamberto Manzoli
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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10
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Townsend JP, Hassler HB, Sah P, Galvani AP, Dornburg A. The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2204336119. [PMID: 35858382 PMCID: PMC9351502 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2204336119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey P. Townsend
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06525
- Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511
- Program in Microbiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511
| | - Hayley B. Hassler
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510
| | - Pratha Sah
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06525
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520
| | - Alison P. Galvani
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06525
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06525
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520
| | - Alex Dornburg
- Department of Bioinformatics and Genomics, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC 28223
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11
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Comba IY, Riestra Guiance I, Corsini Campioli C, Challener D, Sampathkumar P, Orenstein R, Gordon J, Bosch W, O'Horo JC. Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection. Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes 2022; 6:361-372. [PMID: 35665315 PMCID: PMC9149045 DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocpiqo.2022.05.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective To examine the clinical characteristics, risk of hospitalization and mortality of patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. Patients and Methods We retrospectively reviewed all patients with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection all Mayo Clinic sites between May 23, 2020, and June 30, 2021 (the period before emergence of delta variant in United States). The reinfection was defined as positive SARS-CoV-2 test ≥ 90 days after initial infection or 45-89 days after with symptomatic second episode. Vaccination status was classified as fully vaccinated, first dose and unvaccinated. Comparative analysis of baseline characteristics and comorbidities was performed by hospitalization and vaccination status. The survival analysis of hospitalized patients was performed using cox-proportional hazard regression. Results Among 554 reinfected patients, 59 (10.6%) were pediatric, and 495 (89.4%) were adults. The median age was 13.9 years (interquartile range [IQR], 8.5-16.5) for pediatric and 50.2 years (IQR, 28.4-65.6) for adult population. Among adult patients, majority were unvaccinated (83.4%, n=413) and duration to reinfection from initial infection was longest in fully vaccinated group (p < .001). 42 (75%) out of 56 patients were seropositive within seven days of reinfection. In hospitalized adult patients, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was an independent risk factor for mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.35; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.51). Conclusion In this study, majority of adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection were unvaccinated. Furthermore, the duration to reinfection was longest in fully vaccinated individuals. Seropositivity was common among adult patients.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Robert Orenstein
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ, USA
| | - Joel Gordon
- Department of Family Medicine CMIO, Mayo Clinic Community Practices MCHS-SWMN, Mankato, MN, USA
| | - Wendelyn Bosch
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - John C O'Horo
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.,Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
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12
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Nguyen NN, Houhamdi L, Hoang VT, Delerce J, Delorme L, Colson P, Brouqui P, Fournier PE, Raoult D, Gautret P. SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and COVID-19 severity. Emerg Microbes Infect 2022; 11:894-901. [PMID: 35264078 PMCID: PMC8942490 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2022.2052358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate is low. The relative severity of the first and second episodes of infection remains poorly studied. In this study, we aimed at assessing the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections and comparing the severity of the first and second episodes of infection. We retrospectively included patients with SARS-CoV-2 positive RT-PCR at least 90 days after clinical recovery from a COVID-19 episode and with at least one negative RT-PCR after the first infection. Whole genome sequencing and variant-specific RT-PCR were performed and clinical symptoms and severity of infection were retrospectively documented from medical files. A total of 209 COVID-19 reinfected patients were identified, accounting for 0.4% of positive cases diagnosed from 19 March 2020 to 24 August 2021. Serology was performed in 64 patients, of whom 39 (60.1%) had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 when sampled at the early stage of their second infection. Only seven patients (3.4%) were infected twice with the same variant. We observed no differences in clinical presentation, hospitalization rate, and transfer to ICU when comparing the two episodes of infections. Our results suggest that the severity of the second episode of COVID-19 is in the same range as that of the first infection, including patients with antibodies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nhu Ngoc Nguyen
- IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France.,IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Linda Houhamdi
- IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France.,IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Van Thuan Hoang
- Thai Binh University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Thai Binh, Vietnam
| | - Jeremy Delerce
- IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France.,IRD, AP-HM, MEPHI, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France
| | - Léa Delorme
- IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France.,IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Philippe Colson
- IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France.,IRD, AP-HM, MEPHI, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France
| | - Philippe Brouqui
- IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France.,IRD, AP-HM, MEPHI, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France
| | - Pierre-Edouard Fournier
- IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France.,IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Didier Raoult
- IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France.,IRD, AP-HM, MEPHI, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France
| | - Philippe Gautret
- IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France.,IHU-Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
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13
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Zelner J, Masters NB, Naraharisetti R, Mojola SA, Chowkwanyun M, Malosh R. There are no equal opportunity infectors: Epidemiological modelers must rethink our approach to inequality in infection risk. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1009795. [PMID: 35139067 PMCID: PMC8827449 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models have come to play a key role in global pandemic preparedness and outbreak response: helping to plan for disease burden, hospital capacity, and inform nonpharmaceutical interventions. Such models have played a pivotal role in the COVID-19 pandemic, with transmission models—and, by consequence, modelers—guiding global, national, and local responses to SARS-CoV-2. However, these models have largely not accounted for the social and structural factors, which lead to socioeconomic, racial, and geographic health disparities. In this piece, we raise and attempt to clarify several questions relating to this important gap in the research and practice of infectious disease modeling: Why do epidemiologic models of emerging infections typically ignore known structural drivers of disparate health outcomes? What have been the consequences of a framework focused primarily on aggregate outcomes on infection equity? What should be done to develop a more holistic approach to modeling-based decision-making during pandemics? In this review, we evaluate potential historical and political explanations for the exclusion of drivers of disparity in infectious disease models for emerging infections, which have often been characterized as “equal opportunity infectors” despite ample evidence to the contrary. We look to examples from other disease systems (HIV, STIs) and successes in including social inequity in models of acute infection transmission as a blueprint for how social connections, environmental, and structural factors can be integrated into a coherent, rigorous, and interpretable modeling framework. We conclude by outlining principles to guide modeling of emerging infections in ways that represent the causes of inequity in infection as central rather than peripheral mechanisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jon Zelner
- Dept. of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Nina B. Masters
- Dept. of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Ramya Naraharisetti
- Dept. of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Sanyu A. Mojola
- Dept. of Sociology, School of Public and International Affairs & Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Merlin Chowkwanyun
- Dept. of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Ryan Malosh
- Dept. of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
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