Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model

Disseminating information on acute public health events globally: experiences from the WHO's Disease Outbreak News

WHO works, on a daily basis, with countries globally to detect, prepare for and respond to acute public health events. A vital component of a health response is the dissemination of accurate, reliable and authoritative information. The Disease Outbreak News (DON) reports are a key mechanism through which WHO communicates on acute public health events to the public. The decision to produce a DON report is taken on a case-by-case basis after evaluating key criteria, and the subsequent process of producing a DON report is highly standardised to ensure the robustness of information. DON reports have been published since 1996, and up to 2022 over 3000 reports have been published. Between 2018 and 2022, the most frequently published DON reports relate to Ebola virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, yellow fever, polio and cholera. The DON web page is highly visited with a readership of over 2.6 million visits per year, on average. The DON report structure has evolved over time, from a single paragraph in 1996 to a detailed report with seven sections currently. WHO regularly reviews the DON report process and structure for improvements. In the last 25 years, DON reports have played a unique role in rapidly disseminating information on acute public health events to health actors and the public globally. They have become a key information source for the global public health response to the benefit of individuals and communities.

Marburg virus disease: the paradox of Nigeria's preparedness and priority effects in co-epidemics

BACKGROUND

The recent outbreaks of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Guinea and Ghana have become a major public health concern not only to the West African sub-region but a threat to global health.

MAIN BODY OF THE ABSTRACT

Given the poorly elucidated ecological and epidemiological dynamics of the Marburg virus, it would be imprudent to preclude the possibility of another pandemic if urgent efforts are not put in place. However, the prior emergence and impact of COVID-19 and other co-occurring epidemics may add 'noise' to the epidemiological dynamics and public health interventions that may be required in the advent of a MVD outbreak in Nigeria.

SHORT CONCLUSION

Paying attention to the lessons learned from previous (and current) multiple epidemics including Avian Influenza, Yellow fever, Ebola virus disease, Monkeypox, Lassa fever, and COVID-19 could help avoid a potentially devastating public health catastrophe in Nigeria.

Genetically Predicted Higher Educational Attainment Decreases the Risk of COVID-19 Susceptibility and Severity: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background: Prior observational studies indicated that lower educational attainment (EA) is associated with higher COVID-19 risk, while these findings were vulnerable to bias from confounding factors. We aimed to clarify the causal effect of EA on COVID-19 susceptibility, hospitalization, and severity using Mendelian randomization (MR).

Methods: We identified genetic instruments for EA from a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) (n = 1,131,881). Summary statistics for COVID-19 susceptibility (112,612 cases and 2,474,079 controls), hospitalization (24,274 cases and 2,061,529 controls), and severity (8,779 cases and 1,001,875 controls) were obtained from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. We used the single-variable MR (SVMR) and the multivariable MR (MVMR) controlling intelligence, income, body mass index, vigorous physical activity, sedentary behavior, smoking, and alcohol consumption to estimate the total and direct effects of EA on COVID-19 outcomes. Inverse variance weighted was the primary analysis method. All the statistical analyses were performed using R software.

Results: Results from the SVMR showed that genetically predicted higher EA was correlated with a lower risk of COVID-19 susceptibility [odds ratio (OR) 0.86, 95% CI 0.84–0.89], hospitalization (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.62–0.73), and severity (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58–0.79). EA still maintained its effects in most of the MVMR.

Conclusion: Educational attainment is a predictor for susceptibility, hospitalization, and severity of COVID-19 disease. Population with lower EA should be provided with a higher prioritization to public health resources to decrease the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19.

Conservation, development and the management of infectious disease: avian influenza in China, 2004-2012

There is growing evidence that wildlife conservation measures have mixed effects on the emergence and spread of zoonotic disease. Wildlife conservation has been found to have both positive (dilution) and negative (contagion) effects. In the case of avian influenza H5N1 in China, the focus has been on negative effects. Lakes and wetlands attracting migrating waterfowl have been argued to be disease hotspots. We consider the implications of waterfowl conservation for H5N1 infections in both poultry and humans between 2004 and 2012. We model both environmental and economic risk factors. Environmental risk factors comprise the conditions that structure interaction between wild and domesticated birds. Economic risk factors comprise the cost of disease, biosecurity measures and disease risk mitigation. We find that H5N1 outbreaks in poultry populations are indeed sensitive to the existence of wild-domesticated bird mixing zones, but not in the way we would expect from the literature. We find that risk is decreasing in protected migratory bird habitat. Since the number of human cases is increasing in the number of poultry outbreaks, as expected, the implication is that the protection of wetlands important for migratory birds offers unexpected human health benefits.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Intra-articular steroid injection for osteoarthritis of the hip prior to total hip arthroplasty

Aims

Using a systematic review, we investigated whether there is an increased risk of post-operative infection in patients who have received an intra-articular corticosteroid injection to the hip for osteoarthritis prior to total hip arthroplasty (THA).

Methods

Studies dealing with an intra-articular corticosteroid injection to the hip and infection following subsequent THA were identified from databases for the period between 1990 to 2013. Retrieved articles were independently assessed for their methodological quality.

Results

A total of nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Two recommended against a steroid injection prior to THA and seven found no risk with an injection. No prospective controlled trials were identified. Most studies were retrospective. Lack of information about the methodology was a consistent flaw.

Conclusions

The literature in this area is scarce and the evidence is weak. Most studies were retrospective, and confounding factors were poorly defined or not addressed. There is thus currently insufficient evidence to conclude that an intra-articular corticosteroid injection administered prior to THA increases the rate of infection. High quality, multicentre randomised trials are needed to address this issue. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1027–35.

New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases

Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats.