Bad research is not all bad

In this commentary, we discuss a recent article in Trials that raised concerns about the number of poorly performed randomised trials in the medical literature and discuss the trials literature more widely. Although we all aim for higher methodological standards in trials, we argue that (i) the idea that 'most randomised trials are bad', which the recent article concludes is an overly simplistic representation of the situation, and (ii) the suggestion that an increased focus on methodological review during trial development (e.g. ethical boards performing some assessment of the methodologists on a trial), while well meaning, may have negative unintended consequences. We therefore propose that (a) trials should be assessed on their merits and weaknesses, including an assessment of risk of bias but placing that in a wider context; (b) we should recognise that although the methodological conduct of trials is of utmost importance, interventions that aim to improve this could have unintended consequences-such as bureaucracy-that have an overall negative effect; and (c) we should therefore generate an evidence base for policy interventions to improve conduct of trials rather than applying arbitrary rules.

Long-term safety and efficacy results in hepatitis C virus genotype 1-infected patients receiving ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir + dasabuvir ± ribavirin in the TOPAZ-I and TOPAZ-II trials

The 3-DAA regimen consisting of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir plus dasabuvir (OBV/PTV/r + DSV) ± ribavirin (RBV) has shown high sustained virologic response rates (~95%) in phase 3 clinical trials including >2300 HCV genotype 1-infected patients. Real-world evidence studies have confirmed the effectiveness of OBV/PTV/r ± DSV ± RBV in patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection and are consistent with clinical trial results. TOPAZ-I and TOPAZ-II are ongoing phase 3b trials, assessing safety, efficacy and long-term progression of liver disease and clinical outcomes for up to 5 years post-treatment in patients treated with OBV/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV. High rates of sustained virologic response (SVR) were achieved regardless of presence or absence of cirrhosis.In this report, we assessed the long-term progression of liver disease and incidence of clinical outcomes up to 3 years of post-treatment follow-up in patients with chronic HCV GT1 infection who were treated with (OBV/PTV/r + DSV) ± RBV in the TOPAZ-I and TOPAZ-II studies. Improvements were observed in liver disease markers including FIB-4, METAVIR and Child-Pugh scores as well as platelet counts. Clinical outcomes related to long-term progression of liver disease such as liver decompensation were infrequent (<1%). Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurred in 1.4% of cirrhotic patients.

Life Expectancy of Insured People With and Without Hepatitis C Virus Infection, 2007-2017

Among 25 291 and 4 921 830 people with and without hepatitis C, life expectancy at age 20 increased 1.8 years and 0.3 years from the interferon to interferon-free era, respectively. Increases were highest for racial and/or ethnic minority groups with hepatitis C.

Declining hepatitis C virus-related liver disease burden in the direct-acting antiviral therapy era in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Population-level evidence for the impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy on hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related disease burden is lacking. We aimed to evaluate trends in HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) hospitalisation, and liver-related and all-cause mortality in the pre-DAA (2001-2014) and DAA therapy (2015-2017) eras in New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

HCV notifications (1993-2016) were linked to hospital admissions (2001-2017) and mortality (1995-2017). Segmented Poisson regressions and Poisson regression were used to assess the impact of DAA era and factors associated with liver-related mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

Among 99,910 people with an HCV notification, 3.8% had a decompensated cirrhosis diagnosis and 1.8% had an HCC diagnosis, while 3.3% and 10.5% died of liver-related and all-cause mortality, respectively. In the pre-DAA era, the number of decompensated cirrhosis and HCC diagnoses, and liver-related and all-cause mortality consistently increased (incidence rate ratios 1.04 [95% CI 1.04-1.05], 1.08 [95% CI 1.07-1.08], 1.07 [95% CI 1.06-1.07], and 1.05 [95% CI 1.04-1.05], respectively) over each 6-monthly band. In the DAA era, decompensated cirrhosis diagnosis and liver-related mortality numbers declined (incidence rate ratios 0.97 [95% CI 0.95-0.99] and 0.96 [95% CI 0.94-0.98], respectively), and HCC diagnosis and all-cause mortality numbers plateaued (incidence rate ratio 1.00 [95% CI 0.97-1.03] and 1.01 [95% CI 1.00-1.02], respectively) over each 6-monthly band. In the DAA era, alcohol-use disorder (AUD) was common in patients diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis and HCC (65% and 46% had a history of AUD, respectively). AUD was independently associated with liver-related mortality (incidence rate ratio 3.35; 95% CI 3.14-3.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In the DAA era, there has been a sharp decline in liver disease morbidity and mortality in New South Wales, Australia. AUD remains a major contributor to HCV-related liver disease burden, highlighting the need to address comorbidities.

LAY SUMMARY

Rising hepatitis C-related morbidity and mortality is a major public health issue. However, development of highly effective medicines against hepatitis C (called direct-acting antivirals or DAAs) means hepatitis C could be eliminated as a public health threat by 2030. This study shows a sharp decline in liver disease morbidity and mortality since the introduction of DAAs in New South Wales, Australia. Despite this, heavy alcohol use remains an important risk factor for liver disease among people with hepatitis C. To ensure that the benefits of new antiviral treatments are not compromised, management of major comorbidities, including heavy alcohol use must improve among people with hepatitis C.

Evidence-making hepatitis C cure: Towards a science that knows more carefully

There has been some controversy concerning the curative potential of new treatments for hepatitis C. This follows a systematic review of the Cochrane Collaboration questioning the clinical benefits of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). This controversy has been debated as a matter of methods regarding how best to evidence treatment in an evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach. Drawing from science and technology studies (STS), we offer an alternative perspective. We propose a different way of thinking with evidence; one which treats 'evidencing as performative'. Using the Cochrane review and its linked published responses as a resource for this analysis, we consider how hepatitis C cure is differently made-up through the knowledge-making practices performing it. We show how matters of apparent fact in evidence-based science are enacted as matters of clinical, social and ethico-political concern. We notice hepatitis C cure as a fluid object in negotiation. We highlight the limits of current debate to advocate a more critical and careful practice-based approach to knowing hepatitis C cure. This calls upon public health researchers to reflect on the performative work of their evidencing. We propose a 'more-than' EBM approach which treats 'evidence-based' science as an 'evidence-making intervention'. We consider the implications of such an approach for the evidencing of public health interventions and for treating hepatitis C in the DAA era of 'viral elimination'.