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Jr ANL, Monteiro LHA. A network model of social contacts with small-world and scale-free features, tunable connectivity, and geographic restrictions. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2024; 21:4801-4813. [PMID: 38872514 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2024211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2024]
Abstract
Small-world networks and scale-free networks are well-known theoretical models within the realm of complex graphs. These models exhibit "low" average shortest-path length; however, key distinctions are observed in their degree distributions and average clustering coefficients: in small-world networks, the degree distribution is bell-shaped and the clustering is "high"; in scale-free networks, the degree distribution follows a power law and the clustering is "low". Here, a model for generating scale-free graphs with "high" clustering is numerically explored, since these features are concurrently identified in networks representing social interactions. In this model, the values of average degree and exponent of the power-law degree distribution are both adjustable, and spatial limitations in the creation of links are taken into account. Several topological metrics are calculated and compared for computer-generated graphs. Unexpectedly, the numerical experiments show that, by varying the model parameters, a transition from a power-law to a bell-shaped degree distribution can occur. Also, in these graphs, the degree distribution is most accurately characterized by a pure power-law for values of the exponent typically found in real-world networks.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Newton Licciardi Jr
- Universidade de São Paulo, Escola Politécnica, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Escola de Engenharia, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - L H A Monteiro
- Universidade de São Paulo, Escola Politécnica, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Escola de Engenharia, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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Espinosa O, Mora L, Sanabria C, Ramos A, Rincón D, Bejarano V, Rodríguez J, Barrera N, Álvarez-Moreno C, Cortés J, Saavedra C, Robayo A, Franco OH. Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review. Syst Rev 2024; 13:30. [PMID: 38229123 PMCID: PMC10790449 DOI: 10.1186/s13643-023-02411-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The interaction between modelers and policymakers is becoming more common due to the increase in computing speed seen in recent decades. The recent pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was no exception. Thus, this study aims to identify and assess epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data, including immunization for coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). METHODOLOGY PubMed, JSTOR, medRxiv, LILACS, EconLit, and other databases were searched for studies employing epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data. We summarized the information qualitatively, and each article included was assessed for bias risk using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and PROBAST checklist tool. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022344542. FINDINGS In total, 5646 articles were retrieved, of which 411 were included. Most of the information was published in 2021. The countries with the highest number of studies were the United States, Canada, China, and the United Kingdom; no studies were found in low-income countries. The SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) was the most frequently used approach, followed by agent-based modeling. Moreover, the most commonly used software were R, Matlab, and Python, with the most recurring health outcomes being death and recovery. According to the JBI assessment, 61.4% of articles were considered to have a low risk of bias. INTERPRETATION The utilization of mathematical models increased following the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Stakeholders have begun to incorporate these analytical tools more extensively into public policy, enabling the construction of various scenarios for public health. This contribution adds value to informed decision-making. Therefore, understanding their advancements, strengths, and limitations is essential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oscar Espinosa
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia.
| | - Laura Mora
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Cristian Sanabria
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Antonio Ramos
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Duván Rincón
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Valeria Bejarano
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Jhonathan Rodríguez
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS) & Economic Models and Quantitative Methods Research Group, Centro de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Nicolás Barrera
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | | | - Jorge Cortés
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Carlos Saavedra
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
| | - Adriana Robayo
- Directorate of Analytical, Economic and Actuarial Studies in Health, Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud (IETS), Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Oscar H Franco
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University & Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA
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Pastor-Satorras R, Castellano C. The advantage of self-protecting interventions in mitigating epidemic circulation at the community level. Sci Rep 2022; 12:15950. [PMID: 36153354 PMCID: PMC9509388 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-20152-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Protecting interventions of many types (both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical) can be deployed against the spreading of a communicable disease, as the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shown. Here we investigate in detail the effects at the population level of interventions that provide an asymmetric protection between the people involved in a single interaction. Masks of different filtration types, either protecting mainly the wearer or the contacts of the wearer, are a prominent example of these interventions. By means of analytical calculations and extensive simulations of simple epidemic models on networks, we show that interventions protecting more efficiently the adopter (e.g the mask wearer) are more effective than interventions protecting primarily the contacts of the adopter in reducing the prevalence of the disease and the number of concurrently infected individuals (“flattening the curve”). This observation is backed up by the study of a more realistic epidemic model on an empirical network representing the patterns of contacts in the city of Portland. Our results point out that promoting wearer-protecting face masks and other self-protecting interventions, though deemed selfish and inefficient, can actually be a better strategy to efficiently curtail pandemic spreading.
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Wang Z, Zhuang Y, Fan C. Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Urban Embedded Social Networks. Front Public Health 2022; 10:879340. [PMID: 35712301 PMCID: PMC9195001 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.879340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2022] [Accepted: 04/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Due to the continual recurrence of COVID-19 in urban areas, it is important to know more about the evolution of the epidemic within this setting to mitigate the risk of the situation getting worse. As the virus spreads through human society, the social networks of confirmed cases can provide us with crucial new insights on this question. Methods Based on the epidemiological reports of 235 COVID-19 cases in Nanjing, we constructed a social contact network for the epidemic. By analyzing the structure of this network, we explored the transmission characteristics of the epidemic, to provide evidence-based explanations for its transmission. Results In our constructed transmission network, more than half (95/165, 57.58%) of patients were found not to have transmitted the infection, with only 15 (9.10%) source patients accounting for more than a third of the contagion (60, 36.36%), suggesting that the transmission of COVID-19 varies per individuals. Patients in the 31 to 50 age group were the main source of infectious clusters, with females playing a more active role in passing on the infection. Network component analysis identified nine components with disproportionate concentrations of influential patients, accounting for 49.09% (81) of the patients and 59.09% (78) of epidemiological network contacts. Family aggregation may favor disease transmission, and parenthood is the relationship with the highest infection risk within the family cluster. In addition, some specific public places, such as chess and card parlors, were found to be notable hotspots for community infection. Conclusion This study presents the evolution of the urban epidemic from the perspective of individual-level and socially interactive processes. This real-world evidence can help to increase public awareness of the epidemic, formulate countermeasures, and allocate limited public health resources for urban management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zihao Wang
- School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yue Zhuang
- School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Chao Fan
- School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
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Hiram Guzzi P, Petrizzelli F, Mazza T. Disease spreading modeling and analysis: a survey. Brief Bioinform 2022; 23:6606045. [PMID: 35692095 DOI: 10.1093/bib/bbac230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2022] [Revised: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
MOTIVATION The control of the diffusion of diseases is a critical subject of a broad research area, which involves both clinical and political aspects. It makes wide use of computational tools, such as ordinary differential equations, stochastic simulation frameworks and graph theory, and interaction data, from molecular to social granularity levels, to model the ways diseases arise and spread. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a perfect testbench example to show how these models may help avoid severe lockdown by suggesting, for instance, the best strategies of vaccine prioritization. RESULTS Here, we focus on and discuss some graph-based epidemiological models and show how their use may significantly improve the disease spreading control. We offer some examples related to the recent COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how to generalize them to other diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pietro Hiram Guzzi
- Department of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Magna Graecia University, Catanzaro, 88110, Italy
| | - Francesco Petrizzelli
- Bioinformatics unit, Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, San Giovanni Rotondo, 71013, Italy
| | - Tommaso Mazza
- Bioinformatics unit, Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, San Giovanni Rotondo, 71013, Italy
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