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Himmelreich JCL, Virdone S, Camm J, Pieper K, Harskamp RE, Oto A, Jacobson BF, Sawhney JPS, Lim TW, Gibbs H, Goto S, Haas S, Fox KAA, Jansky P, Verheugt F, Kakkar AK. Impact of patient selection in clinical trials: application of ROCKET AF and ARISTOTLE criteria in GARFIELD-AF. Open Heart 2024; 11:e002708. [PMID: 38955399 DOI: 10.1136/openhrt-2024-002708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The extent to which differences in results from Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) and Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial (ROCKET) atrial fibrillation (AF)-the landmark trials for the approval of apixaban and rivaroxaban, respectively, for non-valvular AF-were influenced by differences in their protocols is debated. The potential influence of selection criteria on trial results was assessed by emulating these trials in data from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field (GARFIELD)-AF registry. METHODS Vitamin K antagonist (VKA) and non-vitamin K oral antagonist (NOAC) users from GARFIELD-AF were selected according to eligibility for the original ARISTOTLE or ROCKET AF trials. A propensity score overlap weighted Cox model was used to emulate trial randomisation between treatment groups. Adjusted HRs for stroke or systemic embolism (SE) within 2 years of enrolment were calculated for each NOAC versus VKA. RESULTS Among patients on apixaban, rivaroxaban and VKA, 2570, 3560 and 8005 were eligible for ARISTOTLE, respectively, and 1612, 2005 and 4368, respectively, for ROCKET AF. When selecting for ARISTOTLE criteria, apixaban users had significantly lower stroke/SE risk versus VKA (HR 0.57; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.94) while no reduction was observed with rivaroxaban (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.68 to 1.40). When selecting for ROCKET AF criteria, safety and efficacy versus VKA were similar across the NOACs. CONCLUSION Apixaban and rivaroxaban showed similar results versus VKA in high-risk patients selected according to ROCKET AF criteria, whereas differences emerged when selecting for the more inclusive ARISTOTLE criteria. Our results highlight the importance of trial selection criteria in interpreting trial results and underline the problems faced in comparing treatments across rather than within clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jelle C L Himmelreich
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Amsterdam Public Health, Personalized Medicine, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - John Camm
- Cardiology, St George's Hospital, London, Ohio, USA
| | | | - Ralf E Harskamp
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Personalized Medicine, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ali Oto
- Cardiology, Memorial Ankara Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Barry F Jacobson
- University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Toon Wei Lim
- Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, Singapore
| | - Harry Gibbs
- Medicine Alfred Hospital, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shinya Goto
- Tokai University School of Medicine Graduate School of Medicine, Isehara, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Sylvia Haas
- Haemostasis and Thrombosis Research Group, Institute for Experimental Oncology and Therapy Research, Formerly Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Cardiology, University of Edinburgh and Royal Infirmary, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Petr Jansky
- University Hospital Motol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Freek Verheugt
- Cardiology, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ajay K Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Department of Surgery, University College London, London, UK
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Lu J, Bisson A, Bennamoun M, Zheng Y, Sanfilippo FM, Hung J, Briffa T, McQuillan B, Stewart J, Figtree G, Huisman MV, Dwivedi G, Lip GYH. Predicting multifaceted risks using machine learning in atrial fibrillation: insights from GLORIA-AF study. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. DIGITAL HEALTH 2024; 5:235-246. [PMID: 38774373 PMCID: PMC11104470 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztae010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2023] [Revised: 12/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/29/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2024]
Abstract
Aims Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of ischaemic stroke and death. While anticoagulants are effective at reducing these risks, they increase the risk of bleeding. Current clinical risk scores only perform modestly in predicting adverse outcomes, especially for the outcome of death. We aimed to test the multi-label gradient boosting decision tree (ML-GBDT) model in predicting risks for adverse outcomes in a prospective global AF registry. Methods and results We studied patients from phase II/III of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation registry between 2011 and 2020. The outcomes were all-cause death, ischaemic stroke, and major bleeding within 1 year following the AF. We trained the ML-GBDT model and compared its discrimination with the clinical scores in predicting patient outcomes. A total of 25 656 patients were included [mean age 70.3 years (SD 10.3); 44.8% female]. Within 1 year after AF, ischaemic stroke occurred in 215 (0.8%), major bleeding in 405 (1.6%), and death in 897 (3.5%) patients. Our model achieved an optimized area under the curve in predicting death (0.785, 95% CI: 0.757-0.813) compared with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.747, P = 0.007), ischaemic stroke (0.691, 0.626-0.756) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.613, P = 0.028), and major bleeding (0.698, 0.651-0.745) as opposed to HAS-BLED (0.607, P = 0.002), with improvement in net reclassification index (10.0, 12.5, and 23.6%, respectively). Conclusion The ML-GBDT model outperformed clinical risk scores in predicting the risks in patients with AF. This approach could be used as a single multifaceted holistic tool to optimize patient risk assessment and mitigate adverse outcomes when managing AF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Lu
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
- Medical School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
- Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, 5 Robin Warren Dr, Murdoch WA 6150, Australia
- Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
| | - Arnaud Bisson
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital and University of Tours, Tours, France
| | - Mohammed Bennamoun
- Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, 5 Robin Warren Dr, Murdoch WA 6150, Australia
| | - Yalin Zheng
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
- Department of Eye and Vision Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Frank M Sanfilippo
- School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Joseph Hung
- Medical School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
| | - Tom Briffa
- School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Brendan McQuillan
- Medical School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
- Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia
| | - Jonathon Stewart
- Medical School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
| | - Gemma Figtree
- Kolling Institute and Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney, Australia
| | - Menno V Huisman
- Department of Thrombosis and Hemostasis Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Girish Dwivedi
- Medical School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
- Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, 5 Robin Warren Dr, Murdoch WA 6150, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Fiona Stanley Hospital, Perth, Australia
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
- Danish Center for Health Services Research, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Selma Lagerløfs Vej 249, 9260 Gistrup, Denmark
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3
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Ali A, Siddiqui AA, Ali M, Shahid I. Meta-analysis on performance of ABC and GARFIELD-AF compared to CHA 2DS 2-VASc and HAS-BLED in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients. CARDIOVASCULAR REVASCULARIZATION MEDICINE 2024; 60:74-81. [PMID: 37880043 DOI: 10.1016/j.carrev.2023.10.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND When high thromboembolic and bleeding risks coexist, the former tends to influence physicians' decision making for anti-coagulation therapy. However, the ideal is to weigh the risk of major bleeding and stroke together to ensure effective anti-coagulation treatment, which is a limitation of traditional guideline recommended CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED. This meta-analysis assesses the performance of the two new scores - ABC and GARFIELD-AF compared to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED for major bleeding and stroke outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) on anticoagulation therapy. METHODS MEDLINE and Cochrane central were searched from 2010 to February 2023 that compared GARFIELD-AF and/or ABC with CHA2DS2-VASc and/or HAS-BLED scores using C-statistics to assess their discriminative ability. RESULTS 12 studies were included in this meta-analysis. When assessing stroke risk prediction, GARFIELD-AF stroke (C-Statistic: 0.71; 95 % CI: 0.70-0.72; I2 = 0 %, p < 0.05) was found to be significantly better than ABC-stroke (C-Statistic: 0.67; 95 % CI: 0.65-0.68; I2 = 0 %, p < 0.05), and CHA2DS2-VASc (C-Statistic: 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.60-0.67; I2 = 92 %, p < 0.05). Additionally, when assessing bleeding risk prediction, ABC-bleeding (C-Statistic: 0.66; 95 % CI: 0.61-0.70; I2 = 84 %, p < 0.05), GARFIELD-AF (C-Statistic: 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.60-0.68; I2 = 95 %, p < 0.05), and HAS-BLED (C-Statistic: 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.62-0.66; I2 = 85 %, p < 0.05) all showed equivalent performances. CONCLUSION The GARFIELD-AF stroke score showed superior performance to the well-established CHA2DS2-VASc score as well as the ABC-stroke score. Therefore, new guidelines should favor GARFIELD-AF use in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abraish Ali
- Department of Medicine, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan.
| | - Asad Ali Siddiqui
- Department of Medicine, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Mirha Ali
- Department of Medicine, Jinnah Sindh Medical University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Izza Shahid
- Division of Preventive Cardiology, Houston Methodist Academic Institute, Houston, TX, USA
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Rus M, Ardelean AI, Crisan S, Marian P, Pobirci OL, Huplea V, Judea Pusta C, Osiceanu GA, Stanis CE, Andronie-Cioara FL. Optimizing Atrial Fibrillation Care: Comparative Assessment of Anticoagulant Therapies and Risk Factors. Clin Pract 2024; 14:344-360. [PMID: 38391413 PMCID: PMC10888395 DOI: 10.3390/clinpract14010027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2023] [Revised: 01/27/2024] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with various risk factors and significant morbidity and mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS This article presents findings from a study involving 345 patients with permanent AF. This study examined demographics, risk factors, associated pathologies, complications, and anticoagulant therapy over the course of a year. RESULTS The results showed a slight predominance of AF in males (55%), with the highest incidence in individuals aged 75 and older (49%). Common risk factors included arterial hypertension (54%), dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus type 2 (19.13%), and obesity (15.65%). Comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (35.6%), mitral valve regurgitation (60%), and dilated cardiomyopathy (32%) were prevalent among the patients. Major complications included congestive heart failure (32%), stroke (17%), and myocardial infarction (5%). Thromboembolic and bleeding risk assessment using CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores demonstrated a high thromboembolic risk in all patients. The majority of patients were receiving novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) before admission (73%), while NOACs were also the most prescribed antithrombotic therapy at discharge (61%). CONCLUSIONS This study highlights the importance of risk factor management and appropriate anticoagulant therapy in patients with AF, to reduce complications and improve outcomes. The results support the importance of tailored therapeutic schemes, for optimal care of patients with AF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marius Rus
- Department of Medical Disciplines, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | - Adriana Ioana Ardelean
- Department of Preclinical Disciplines, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | - Simina Crisan
- Cardiology Department, "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 2 Eftimie Murgu Sq., 300041 Timisoara, Romania
- Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases Timisoara, 13A Gheorghe Adam Street, 300310 Timisoara, Romania
- Research Center of the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases Timisoara, 13A Gheorghe Adam Street, 300310 Timisoara, Romania
| | - Paula Marian
- Department of Medical Disciplines, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | - Oana Lilliana Pobirci
- Department of Psycho Neuroscience and Recovery, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | - Veronica Huplea
- Department of Psycho Neuroscience and Recovery, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | - Claudia Judea Pusta
- Department of Morphological Disciplines, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | - Gheorghe Adrian Osiceanu
- Department of Morphological Disciplines, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
| | | | - Felicia Liana Andronie-Cioara
- Department of Psycho Neuroscience and Recovery, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410073 Oradea, Romania
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Menichelli D, Poli D, Antonucci E, Palareti G, Pignatelli P, Pastori D. Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors and mortality risk in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation. Insights from the nationwide START registry. Eur J Intern Med 2024; 119:84-92. [PMID: 37648584 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2023.08.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Arterial hypertension is the most common cardiovascular comorbidity in atrial fibrillation (AF). Few studies investigated management strategies of hypertension in AF. MATERIALS AND METHODS We included 5769 AF patients on oral anticoagulants from the nationwide ongoing Italian START registry. We investigated the prescription of antihypertensive drugs and mortality risk. Subgroup analyses according to sex and major cardiovascular comorbidities were performed. RESULTS Mean age was 80.8 years, 46.1% were women; 80.3% of patients were hypertensive. Furosemide (30.1%) was the most frequent diuretic followed by hydrochlorothiazide (15.4%) and potassium canrenoate (7.9%). 61.1% received β-blockers: 34.2% bisoprolol, 6.2% atenolol. Additionally, 36.9% were on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-I): ramipril (20.9%), enalapril (5.3%) and perindopril (2.8%); 31.7% were on angiotensin receptors blockers (ARBs): valsartan (7.6%) and irbesartan (6.4%). Amlodipine and lercanidipine were prescribed in 14.0% and 2.3%, respectively. ACE-I (p < 0.001), α-blockers (p = 0.020) and Dihydropyridines calcium channel blockers (p = 0.004) were more common in men, while ARBs (p = 0.008), thiazide diuretics (p < 0.001) and β-blockers (p < 0.001) in women. During 22.61 ± 17.1 months, 512 patients died. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that ACE-I (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.758, 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] 0.612-0.940, p = 0.012) and ARBs (HR 0.623, 95%CI 0.487-0.796, p < 0.001) inversely associated with mortality. ACE-I/ARBs inversely associated with mortality in both sexes and in patients with diabetes. This associastion was evident for ACE-I in patients with previous cardiovascular disease, and for ARBs in HF. CONCLUSION A lower mortality risk was found in AF patients on ACE-I/ARBs. Different prescription patterns of antihypertensive drugs between men and women do exist.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danilo Menichelli
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, Rome 00161, Italy; Department of General Surgery and Surgical Specialty Paride Stefanini, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Daniela Poli
- Thrombosis Center, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi, Florence, Italy
| | | | | | - Pasquale Pignatelli
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, Rome 00161, Italy
| | - Daniele Pastori
- Department of Clinical Internal, Anesthesiological and Cardiovascular Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale del Policlinico 155, Rome 00161, Italy.
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Siegal DM, Verbrugge FH, Martin AC, Virdone S, Camm J, Pieper K, Gersh BJ, Goto S, Turpie AGG, Angchaisuksiri P, Fox KAA. Country and health expenditure are major predictors of withholding anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation patients at high risk of stroke. Open Heart 2023; 10:e002506. [PMID: 38097360 PMCID: PMC10729201 DOI: 10.1136/openhrt-2023-002506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/14/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Guidelines for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at high thromboembolic risk recommend oral anticoagulants (OACs) for preventing stroke and systemic embolism (SE). The reasons for guideline non-adherence are still unclear. AIM The aim is to identify clinical, demographic and non-patient characteristics associated with withholding OAC in patients with AF at high stroke risk. METHODS Patients in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF, newly diagnosed with AF between March 2010 and August 2016, and with CHA2DS2-VASc Score≥2 (excluding sex), were grouped by OAC treatment at enrolment. Factors associated with OAC non-use were analysed by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS Of 40 416 eligible patients, 12 126 (30.0%) did not receive OACs at baseline. Globally, OAC prescription increased over time, from 60.4% in 2010-2011 to 74.7% in 2015-2016. Country of enrolment was the major predictor for OAC withholding (χ2-df=2576). Clinical predictors of OAC non-use included type of AF (χ2-df=404), history of bleeding (χ2-df=263) and vascular disease (χ2-df=99). OACs were used most frequently around the age of 75 years and decreasingly with younger as well as older age beyond 75 years (χ2-df=148). Non-cardiologists (χ2-df=201) and emergency room physicians (χ2-df=14) were less likely to prescribe OACs. OAC prescription correlated positively with country health expenditure. CONCLUSIONS Approximately one out of three AF patients did not receive OAC, while eligible according to the guidelines. Country of enrolment was the major determinant of anticoagulation strategy, while higher country health expenditure was associated with lower likelihood of withholding anticoagulation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah M Siegal
- Medicine, Ottawa Hospital General Campus, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Anne-Celine Martin
- Cardiology, European Hospital Georges-Pompidou, Paris, Île-de-France, France
| | - Saverio Virdone
- Department of Statistics, Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - John Camm
- Cardiology, St George's Hospital, London, UK
| | | | | | - Shinya Goto
- Medicine, Tokai University School of Medicine Graduate School of Medicine, Isehara, Japan
| | | | | | - Keith A A Fox
- Cardiology, University of Edinburgh and Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Verheugt FWA, Fox KAA, Virdone S, Ambrosio G, Gersh BJ, Haas S, Pieper KS, Kayani G, Camm AJ, Parkhomenko A, Misselwitz F, Ragy H, Ten Cate H, Keltai M, Kakkar AK. Outcomes of Oral Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation Patients With or Without Comorbid Vascular Disease: Insights From the GARFIELD-AF Registry. Am J Med 2023; 136:1187-1195.e15. [PMID: 37704071 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2023.08.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many patients with atrial fibrillation suffer from comorbid vascular disease. The comparative efficacy and safety of different types of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in this patient group have not been widely studied. METHODS Adults with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were recruited into the prospective observational registry, GARFIELD-AF, and followed for 24 months. Associations of vascular disease with clinical outcomes were analyzed using adjusted hazard ratios (HR) obtained via Cox proportional-hazard modeling. Outcomes of OAC vs no OAC, and of non-vitamin K antagonist OAC (NOAC) vs vitamin K antagonist (VKA) treatment, were compared by overlap propensity-weighted Cox proportional-hazard models. RESULTS Of 51,574 atrial fibrillation patients, 25.9% had vascular disease. Among eligible atrial fibrillation patients, those with vascular disease received OAC less frequently than those without (63% vs 73%). Over 2-year follow-up, patients with vascular disease showed a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.47) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.28-1.97). OAC was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause mortality and non-hemorrhagic stroke, and increased risk of major bleeding in non-vascular disease. In vascular disease, similar but non-significant trends existed for stroke and major bleeding. A significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.90) and major bleeding (HR 0.45; 95% CI, 0.29-0.70) was observed in vascular disease patients treated with NOACs, compared with VKAs. CONCLUSIONS Atrial fibrillation patients with a history of vascular disease have worse long-term outcomes than those without. The association of NOACs vs VKA with clinical outcomes was more evident in atrial fibrillation patients with vascular disease.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Giuseppe Ambrosio
- Division of Cardiology, University of Perugia School of Medicine Cardiology, Italy
| | - Bernard J Gersh
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minn, USA
| | - Sylvia Haas
- [Formerly] Department of Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Germany
| | | | | | - A John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St. George's University of London, UK
| | - Alexandr Parkhomenko
- National Scientific Centre "MD Strazhesko Institute of Cardiology", Kyiv, Ukraine
| | | | - Hany Ragy
- Department of Cardiology, National Heart Institute, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Hugo Ten Cate
- Maastricht University Medical Center (MUMC+) and Cardiovascular Research Institute (CARIM), Maastricht University, Netherlands; Center for Thrombosis and Hemostasis (CTH), Gutenberg University Medical Center, Mainz, Germany
| | - Matyas Keltai
- Semmelweis University, Hungarian Cardiovascular Institute, Budapest, Hungary
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8
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Knudsen Pope M, Hall TS, Virdone S, Atar D, John Camm A, Pieper KS, Jansky P, Haas S, Goto S, Panchenko E, Baron-Esquivias G, Angchaisuksiri P, Kakkar AK. Rhythm versus rate control in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation - Observations from the GARFIELD-AF registry. IJC HEART & VASCULATURE 2023; 49:101302. [PMID: 38020059 PMCID: PMC10656718 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcha.2023.101302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/10/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Background Investigate real-world outcomes of early rhythm versus rate control in patients with recent onset atrial fibrillation. Methods The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF (GARFIELD-AF) is an international multi-centre, non-interventional prospective registry of newly diagnosed (≤6 weeks' duration) atrial fibrillation patients at risk for stroke. Patients were stratified according to treatment initiated at baseline (≤48 days post enrolment), and outcome risks evaluated by overlap propensity weighted Cox proportional-hazards models. Results Of 45,382 non-permanent atrial fibrillation patients, 23,858 (52.6 %) received rhythm control and 21,524 (47.4 %) rate control. Rhythm-controlled patients had lower median age (68.0 [Q1;Q3: 60.0;76.0] versus 73.0 [65.0;79.0]), fewer histories of stroke/transient ischemic attack/systemic embolism (9.4 % versus 13.0 %), and lower expected probabilities of death (median GARFIELD-AF death score 4.0 [2.3;7.5] versus 5.1 [2.8;9.2]). The two groups had the same median CHA2DS2-VASc scores (3.0 [2.0;4.0]) and similar proportions of anticoagulated patients (rhythm control: 66.0 %, rate control: 65.5 %). The propensity-score-weighted hazard ratios of rhythm vs rate control (reference) were 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.79-0.92, p-value < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality, 0.84 (0.72-0.97, p-value 0.020) for non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.90 (0.78-1.04, p-value 0.164) for major bleeding. Conclusion Rhythm control strategy was initiated in about half of the patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular non-permanent atrial fibrillation. After balancing confounders, significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke were observed in patients who received early rhythm control.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Trygve S. Hall
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Oslo, Norway
| | - Saverio Virdone
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
| | - Dan Atar
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Oslo, Norway
| | - A. John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St. George’s University of London, London, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
| | - Karen S Pieper
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
| | - Petr Jansky
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Motol University Hospital, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Sylvia Haas
- Sylvia Haas: Formerly Department of Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | | | - Elizaveta Panchenko
- National Medical Research Center of Cardiology of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
| | - Gonzalo Baron-Esquivias
- Servicio de Cardiología y Cirugía Cardíaca, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío., Universidad de Sevilla., Sevilla. Departamento Cardiovascular, Instituto de Biotecnología de Sevilla (IBIS), Spain
| | | | - Ajay K Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Lim TW, Camm AJ, Virdone S, Singer DE, Bassand JP, Fonarow GC, Fox KAA, Ezekowitz M, Gersh BJ, Kayani G, Hylek EM, Kakkar AK, Mahaffey KW, Pieper KS, Peterson ED, Piccini JP. Predictors of intracranial hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries. Clin Cardiol 2023; 46:1398-1407. [PMID: 37596725 PMCID: PMC10642328 DOI: 10.1002/clc.24109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Revised: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND An unmet need exists to reliably predict the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). HYPOTHESIS An externally validated model improves ICH risk stratification. METHODS Independent factors associated with ICH were identified by Cox proportional hazard modeling, using pooled data from the GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation) and ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registries. A predictive model was developed and validated by bootstrap sampling and by independent data from the Danish National Patient Register. RESULTS In the combined training data set, 284 of 53 878 anticoagulated patients had ICH over a 2-year period (0.31 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28-0.35). Independent predictors of ICH included: older age, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, concomitant antiplatelet (AP) use, and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) were associated with a significantly higher risk of ICH compared with non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25-2.08; p = .0002). The ability of the model to discriminate individuals in the training set with and without ICH was fair (optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.65-0.71) and outperformed three previously published methods. Calibration between predicted and observed ICH probabilities was good in both training and validation data sets. CONCLUSIONS Age, prior ischemic events, concomitant AP therapy, and CKD were important risk factors for ICH in anticoagulated AF patients. Moreover, ICH was more frequent in patients receiving VKA compared to NOAC. The new validated model is a step toward mitigating this potentially lethal complication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toon Wei Lim
- National Heart CentreSingaporeSingapore
- National University HospitalSingaporeSingapore
| | - Alan John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences InstituteSt. George's University of LondonLondonUK
| | | | - Daniel E. Singer
- Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Jean P. Bassand
- Thrombosis Research InstituteLondonUK
- Department of CardiologyUniversity of BesançonBesançonFrance
| | | | - Keith A. A. Fox
- Department of Cardiovascular ScienceCentre for Cardiovascular Science, University of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Michael Ezekowitz
- Sidney Kimmel Medical SchoolThomas Jefferson UniversityPhiladelphiaPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Bernard J. Gersh
- Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and ScienceRochesterMinnesotaUSA
| | | | - Elaine M. Hylek
- Department of MedicineBoston University School of MedicineBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Ajay K. Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research InstituteLondonUK
- Department of SurgeryUniversity College LondonLondonUK
| | - Kenneth W. Mahaffey
- Stanford Center for Clinical ResearchStanford School of MedicineStanfordCaliforniaUSA
| | - Karen S. Pieper
- Thrombosis Research InstituteLondonUK
- Department of Cardiac ElectrophysiologyDuke Clinical Research InstituteDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Eric D. Peterson
- Department of Cardiac ElectrophysiologyDuke Clinical Research InstituteDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
- Duke University School of MedicineDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Jonathan P. Piccini
- Department of Cardiac ElectrophysiologyDuke Clinical Research InstituteDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
- Duke University School of MedicineDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
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10
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Apenteng PN, Prieto-Merino D, Hee SW, Lobban TC, Caleyachetty R, Fitzmaurice DA. Optimising prediction of mortality, stroke, and major bleeding for patients with atrial fibrillation: validation of the GARFIELD-AF tool in UK primary care electronic records. Br J Gen Pract 2023; 73:e816-e824. [PMID: 37845083 PMCID: PMC10587901 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp.2023.0082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The GARFIELD-AF tool is a novel risk tool that simultaneously assesses the risk of all-cause mortality, stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). AIM To validate the GARFIELD-AF tool using UK primary care electronic records. DESIGN AND SETTING A retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. METHOD Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated using calibration-in-the-large regression and calibration plots. RESULTS A total of 486 818 patients aged ≥18 years with incident diagnosis of non-valvular AF between 2 January 1998 and 31 July 2020 were included; 50.6% (n = 246 425/486 818) received anticoagulation at diagnosis The GARFIELD- AF models outperformed the CHA2DS2VASc and HAS-BLED scores in discrimination ability of death, stroke, and major bleeding at all the time points. The AUC for events at 1 year for the 2017 models were: death 0.747 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.744 to 0.751) versus 0.635 (95% CI = 0.631 to 0.639) for CHA2DS2VASc; stroke 0.666 (95% CI = 0.663 to 0.669) versus 0.625 (95% CI = 0.622 to 0.628) for CHA2DS2VASc; and major bleeding 0.602 (95% CI = 0.598 to 0.606) versus 0.558 (95% CI = 0.554 to 0.562) for HAS- BLED. Calibration between predicted and Kaplan- Meier observed events was inadequate with the GARFIELD-AF models. CONCLUSION The GARFIELD-AF models were superior to the CHA2DS2VASc score for discriminating stroke and death and superior to the HAS-BLED score for discriminating major bleeding. The models consistently underpredicted the level of risk, suggesting that a recalibration is needed to optimise its use in the UK population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia N Apenteng
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | | | - Siew Wan Hee
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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11
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Bassand JP, Virdone S, Camm AJ, Fox KAA, Goldhaber SZ, Goto S, Haas S, Hacke W, Kayani G, Keltai M, Misselwitz F, Pieper KS, Turpie AGG, Verheugt FWA, Kakkar AK. Oral anticoagulation across diabetic subtypes in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: A report from the GARFIELD-AF registry. Diabetes Obes Metab 2023; 25:3040-3053. [PMID: 37435777 DOI: 10.1111/dom.15202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2023] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/16/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023]
Abstract
AIMS This study aims to describe both management and prognosis of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), overall as well as by antidiabetic treatment, and to assess the influence of oral anticoagulation (OAC) on outcomes by DM status. METHODS The study population comprised 52 010 newly diagnosed patients with AF, 11 542 DM and 40 468 non-DM, enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF registry. Follow-up was truncated at 2 years after enrolment. Comparative effectiveness of OAC versus no OAC was assessed by DM status using a propensity score overlap weighting scheme and weights were applied to Cox models. RESULTS Patients with DM [39.3% oral antidiabetic drug (OAD), 13.4% insulin ± OAD, 47.2% on no antidiabetic drug] had higher risk profile, OAC use, and rates of clinical outcomes compared with patients without DM. OAC use was associated in patients without DM and patients with DM with lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 0.75 (0.69-0.83), 0.74 (0.64-0.86), respectively] and stroke/systemic embolism (SE) [0.69 (0.58-0.83), 0.70 (0.53-0.93), respectively]. The risk of major bleeding with OAC was similarly increased in patients without DM and those with DM [1.40 (1.14-1.71), 1.37 (0.99-1.89), respectively]. Patients with insulin-requiring DM had a higher risk of all-cause mortality and stroke/SE [1.91 (1.63-2.24)], [1.57 (1.06-2.35), respectively] compared with patients without DM, and experienced significant risk reductions of all-cause mortality and stroke/SE with OAC [0.73 (0.53-0.99); 0.50 (0.26-0.97), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS In both patients with DM and patients without DM with AF, OAC was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and stroke/SE. Patients with insulin-requiring DM derived significant benefit from OAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean-Pierre Bassand
- University of Besançon Franche-Comté, Besançon, France
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | | | - A John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences Institute, St. George's University of London, London, UK
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Samuel Z Goldhaber
- Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Shinya Goto
- Tokai University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Sylvia Haas
- Formerly Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | | | | | - Matyas Keltai
- Hungarian Cardiovascular Institute, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
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12
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Shiozawa M, Koga M, Inoue H, Yamashita T, Yasaka M, Suzuki S, Akao M, Atarashi H, Ikeda T, Okumura K, Koretsune Y, Shimizu W, Tsutsui H, Hirayama A, Nakahara J, Teramukai S, Kimura T, Morishima Y, Takita A, Yamaguchi T, Toyoda K. Risk of both intracranial hemorrhage and ischemic stroke in elderly individuals with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation taking direct oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin: Analysis of the ANAFIE registry. Int J Stroke 2023; 18:986-995. [PMID: 37154598 PMCID: PMC10507992 DOI: 10.1177/17474930231175807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) might have a higher risk of intracerebral hemorrhage. To investigate this, we compared the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and its subtypes, as well as ischemic stroke, in patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) compared with warfarin in a real-world setting. We also determined the baseline characteristics associated with both ICH and ischemic stroke. METHODS Patients aged ⩾ 75 years with documented NVAF enrolled in the prospective, multicenter, observational All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly Registry between October 2016 and January 2018 were evaluated. The co-primary endpoints were the incidence of ischemic stroke and ICH. Secondary endpoints included subtypes of ICH. RESULTS Of 32,275 patients (13,793 women; median age, 81.0 years) analyzed, 21,585 (66.9%) were taking DOACs and 8233 (25.5%) were taking warfarin. During the median 1.88-year follow-up, 743 patients (1.24/100 person-years) developed ischemic stroke and 453 (0.75/100 person-years) developed ICH (intracerebral hemorrhage, 189; subarachnoid hemorrhage, 72; subdural/epidural hemorrhage, 190; unknown subtype, 2). The incidence of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.97), ICH (aHR 0.68, 95% CI 0.55-0.83), and subdural/epidural hemorrhage (aHR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39-0.72) was lower in DOAC users versus warfarin users. The incidence of fatal ICH and fatal subarachnoid hemorrhage was also lower in DOAC users versus warfarin users. Several baseline characteristics other than anticoagulants were also associated with the incidence of the endpoints. Of these, history of cerebrovascular disease (aHR 2.39, 95% CI 2.05-2.78), persistent NVAF, (aHR 1.90, 95% CI 1.53-2.36), and long-standing persistent/permanent NVAF (aHR 1.92, 95% CI 1.60-2.30) was strongly associated with ischemic stroke; severe hepatic disease (aHR 2.67, 95% CI 1.46-4.88) was strongly associated with overall ICH; and history of fall within 1 year was strongly associated with both overall ICH (aHR 2.29, 95% CI 1.76-2.97) and subdural/epidural hemorrhage (aHR 2.90, 95% CI 1.99-4.23). CONCLUSION Patients aged ⩾ 75 years with NVAF taking DOACs had lower risks of ischemic stroke, ICH, and subdural/epidural hemorrhage than those taking warfarin. Fall was strongly associated with the risks of intracranial and subdural/epidural hemorrhage. DATA ACCESS STATEMENT The individual de-identified participant data and study protocol will be shared for up to 36 months after the publication of the article. Access criteria for data sharing (including requests) will be decided on by a committee led by Daiichi Sankyo. To gain access, those requesting data access will need to sign a data access agreement. Requests should be directed to yamt-tky@umin.ac.jp.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masayuki Shiozawa
- Department of Cerebrovascular Medicine, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Department of Neurology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masatoshi Koga
- Department of Cerebrovascular Medicine, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | | | | | - Masahiro Yasaka
- Department of Cerebrovascular Medicine and Neurology, Cerebrovascular Center, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Medical Center, Fukuoka, Japan
| | | | - Masaharu Akao
- Department of Cardiology, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | - Takanori Ikeda
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Toho University Faculty of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ken Okumura
- Division of Cardiology, Saiseikai Kumamoto Hospital Cardiovascular Center, Kumamoto, Japan
| | | | - Wataru Shimizu
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Nippon Medical School Tama Nagayama Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Tsutsui
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | | | - Jin Nakahara
- Department of Neurology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Satoshi Teramukai
- Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Tetsuya Kimura
- Primary Medical Science Department, Daiichi Sankyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Atsushi Takita
- Data Intelligence Department, Daiichi Sankyo Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takenori Yamaguchi
- Department of Cerebrovascular Medicine, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
| | - Kazunori Toyoda
- Department of Cerebrovascular Medicine, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Japan
- Department of Neurology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
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13
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Yildirim S, Aslan O. Comparison of bleeding risk scores and evaluation of major bleeding predictive factors in patients with major bleeding due to vitamin K antagonist use. Heliyon 2023; 9:e19079. [PMID: 37636426 PMCID: PMC10448070 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Revised: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 08/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Major bleeding in the treatment of atrial fibrillation is closely associated with an increased risk of death and major adverse outcomes in both the short and long term, but all bleeding events are associated with a reduced quality of life. Bleeding events are also known to reduce medication adherence. In this sense, bleeding risk scores are important tools to help predict major bleeding. However, it is not clear which scoring system is superior. Aim In this study, our aim was to compare bleeding risk scores and to examine the factors associated with bleeding in patients with major bleeding while using vitamin K antagonists. Methods In this retrospective and single-center study, scoring, laboratory and demographic data were analyzed with SPSS 20.0 statistical program. Results The mean age of a total of 1434 patients included in our study was 68.2 ± 11.3 years, range was 39-93 years and 769 (53.6%) of these patients were male. Of 588 patients with major bleeding, 93 (15.8%) had intracranial hemorrhage. Logistic regression analysis comparing the scoring systems among themselves revealed that the GARFIELD-AF scoring system had a predictive effect on major bleeding independent of the effect of other scoring systems (OR: 1.532, 95% CI 1.348-1.741, p < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for GARFIELD-AF was 0.690 (0.662-0.718) as a result of the ROC analysis considering the best cut-off point of 3.2% calculated for 2 years. AUC 0.659 (0.630-0.687) for HAS-BLED, AUC 0.636 (0.606-0.665) for ORBIT and AUC 0.611 (0.5810.642) for ATRIA. When we compare the patient group with the control group, it can be said that intracranial hemorrhage occurred independently of INR and TTR values, unlike in the major bleeding group (p:0.129, p:0.545). Conclusion In patients using vitamin K antagonists for atrial fibrillation, the GARFIELD-AF risk score was found to be superior to important bleeding risk scores such as HAS-BLED, ORBIT and ATRIA in terms of predicting major bleeding. It is an important result that intracranial hemorrhages, which have a special place among major hemorrhages, were independent of INR and TTR levels. It is noteworthy that 8.2% of patients with major bleeding had a history of minor bleeding in the last year.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sinan Yildirim
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Canakkale Mehmet Akif Ersoy State Hospital, Canakkale, Turkey
| | - Onur Aslan
- Department of Cardiology, Tarsus State Hospital, Mersin, Turkey
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14
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Schutgens RE, Jimenez-Yuste V, Escobar M, Falanga A, Gigante B, Klamroth R, Lassila R, Leebeek FW, Makris M, Owaidah T, Sholzberg M, Tiede A, Werring DJ, van der Worp HB, Windyga J, Castaman G. Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Hemophilia: an EHA-ISTH-EAHAD-ESO Clinical Practice Guidance. Hemasphere 2023; 7:e900. [PMID: 37304933 PMCID: PMC10256340 DOI: 10.1097/hs9.0000000000000900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Cardiovascular disease is an emerging medical issue in patients with hemophilia (PWH) and its prevalence is increasing up to 15% in PWH in the United States. Atrial fibrillation, acute and chronic coronary syndromes, venous thromboembolism, and cerebral thrombosis are frequent thrombotic or prothrombotic situations, which require a careful approach to fine-tune the delicate balance between thrombosis and hemostasis in PWH when using both procoagulant and anticoagulant treatments. Generally, PWH could be considered as being naturally anticoagulated when clotting factors are <20 IU/dL, but specific recommendations in patients with very low levels according to the different clinical situations are lacking and mainly based on the anecdotal series. For PWH with baseline clotting factor levels >20 IU/dL in need for any form of antithrombotic therapy, usually treatment without additional clotting factor prophylaxis could be used, but careful monitoring for bleeding is recommended. For antiplatelet treatment, this threshold could be lower with single-antiplatelet agent, but again factor level should be at least 20 IU/dL for dual antiplatelet treatment. In this complex growing scenario, the European Hematology Association in collaboration with the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis, the European Association for Hemophilia and Allied Disorders, the European Stroke Organization, and a representative of the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Thrombosis has produced this current guidance document to provide clinical practice recommendations for health care providers who care for PWH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roger E.G. Schutgens
- Center for Benign Hematology, Thrombosis and Hemostasis, Van Creveldkliniek University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Victor Jimenez-Yuste
- Hematology Department, La Paz University Hospital, Autonoma University, Madrid, Spain
| | - Miguel Escobar
- University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, TX, USA
| | - Anna Falanga
- University of Milano Bicocca, School of Medicine, Monza, Italy
- Department of Transfusion Medicine and Hematology, Hospital Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Bruna Gigante
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden
- Department of Clinical Science, Danderyd Hospital, Karolinska institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Robert Klamroth
- Department of Internal Medicine Angiology and Coagulation Disorders at the Vivantes Klinikum im Friedrichshain, Berlin, Germany
- Institute of Experimental Hematology and Transfusion Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Medical Faculty, University of Bonn, Germany
| | - Riitta Lassila
- Department of Hematology, Coagulation Disorders Unit, and Research Program Unit in Systems Oncology Oncosys, Medical Faculty, University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Frank W.G. Leebeek
- Department of Hematology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Michael Makris
- Haemophilia and Thrombosis Centre, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom
| | - Tarek Owaidah
- King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Michelle Sholzberg
- Division of Hematology-Oncology, Departments of Medicine, and Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, St. Michael’s Hospital, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, University of Toronto, Canada
| | - Andreas Tiede
- Department of Hematology, Hemostasis, Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation, Hannover Medical School, Germany
| | - David J. Werring
- Department of Brain Repair and Rehabilitation, UCL Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Jerzy Windyga
- Department of Hemostasis Disorders and Internal Medicine, Laboratory of Hemostasis and Metabolic Diseases, Institute of Hematology and Transfusion Medicine, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Giancarlo Castaman
- Center for Bleeding Disorders and Coagulation, Department of Oncology, Careggi University Hospital, Florence, Italy
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15
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Castelijns MC, Hageman SHJ, Teraa M, van der Meer MG, Westerink J, Costa F, Ten Berg JM, Visseren FLJ. External validation of bleeding risk models for the prediction of long-term bleeding risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease. Am Heart J 2023; 260:72-81. [PMID: 36841319 DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2023.02.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/18/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The long-term predictive performance of existing bleeding risk models in patients with various manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well known. This study aims to assess and compare the performance of relevant existing bleeding risk models in estimating the long-term risk of major bleeding in a cohort of patients with established CVD. METHODS Seven existing bleeding risk models (PRECISE-DAPT, DAPT, Ducrocq et al, de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, Intracranial B2LEED3S and HAS-BLED) were identified and externally validated in 7,249 patients with established CVD included in the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-second manifestations of arterial disease study. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, both at 10 years and the original prediction horizon of the models. Major bleeding was defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 8.4 years (interquartile range 4.5-12.5), a total of 233 (3.2%) major bleeding events occurred. C-statistics for discrimination at 10 years ranged from 0.53 (95%CI 0.49-0.57) to 0.64 (95%CI 0.60-0.68). Calibration plots after recalibration to 10 years showed best agreement between predicted and observed bleeding risk for De Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. CONCLUSIONS The performance of existing bleeding risk models to predict long-term bleeding in patients with CVD varied. Discrimination and calibration were best for the models of de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. Of these, recalibrated models requiring the least predictors may be preferred for use to personalize prevention with antithrombotic therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria C Castelijns
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Steven H J Hageman
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Martin Teraa
- Department of Vascular Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Manon G van der Meer
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jan Westerink
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine, Isala Clinics Zwolle, Zwolle, The Netherlands
| | - Francesco Costa
- Department of Cardiology, G. Martino University Hospital Messina, Messina, Italy
| | - Jurriën M Ten Berg
- Department of Cardiology and Platelet Function Research, St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands; Cardiovascular Research Institute Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
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16
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Scridon A, Balan AI. Challenges of Anticoagulant Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation-Focus on Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:ijms24086879. [PMID: 37108042 PMCID: PMC10138869 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24086879] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2023] [Revised: 04/02/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The rising prevalence and the complexity of atrial fibrillation (AF) pose major clinical challenges. Stroke prevention is accompanied by non-negligible risks, making anticoagulant treatment an ongoing challenge for the clinician. Current guidelines recommend direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) over warfarin for stroke prevention in most AF patients, mainly due to the ease of their use. However, assessing the bleeding risk in patients receiving oral anticoagulants remains-particularly in the case of DOACs-highly challenging. Using dose-adjusted warfarin increases threefold the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). Although the overall bleeding risk appears to be lower, the use of DOACs has been associated with an increased risk of GIB compared to warfarin. Accurate bleeding (including GIB-specific) risk scores specific for DOACs remain to be developed. Until then, the assessment of bleeding risk factors remains the only available tool, although the extent to which each of these factors contributes to the risk of bleeding is unknown. In this paper, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of the bleeding risk associated with oral anticoagulant therapy in AF patients, with a highlight on the latest insights into GIB associated with oral anticoagulation; we emphasize questions that remain to be answered; and we identify hotspots for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alina Scridon
- Physiology Department, University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology "George Emil Palade" of Târgu Mureș, 540142 Târgu Mureș, Romania
| | - Alkora Ioana Balan
- Physiology Department, University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology "George Emil Palade" of Târgu Mureș, 540142 Târgu Mureș, Romania
- Emergency Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases and Transplantation of Târgu Mureș, 540136 Târgu Mureș, Romania
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17
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van der Endt VHW, Milders J, Penning de Vries BBL, Trines SA, Groenwold RHH, Dekkers OM, Trevisan M, Carrero JJ, van Diepen M, Dekker FW, de Jong Y. Comprehensive comparison of stroke risk score performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis among 6 267 728 patients with atrial fibrillation. Europace 2022; 24:1739-1753. [PMID: 35894866 PMCID: PMC9681133 DOI: 10.1093/europace/euac096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance. METHODS AND RESULTS We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2. Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2, pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS2 demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies. CONCLUSION Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION ID CRD4202161247 (PROSPERO).
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jet Milders
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Bas B L Penning de Vries
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Serge A Trines
- Department of Cardiology, Willem Einthoven Center of Arrhythmia Research and Management, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Rolf H H Groenwold
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Olaf M Dekkers
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marco Trevisan
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB), Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Juan J Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB), Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Merel van Diepen
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Friedo W Dekker
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Ype de Jong
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands,Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
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18
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van Husen G, Virdone S, Pieper K, Kayani G, Fox KAA. Universal Clinician Device for improving risk prediction and management of patients with atrial fibrillation: an assumed benefit analysis. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. DIGITAL HEALTH 2022; 3:181-194. [PMID: 36713019 PMCID: PMC9707904 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Aim Atrial fibrillation (AF) management guidelines advise using risk tools to optimize AF treatment. This study aims to develop a dynamic and clinically applicable digital device to assess stroke and bleeding risk, and to facilitate outcome improvements in AF patients. The device will provide tailored treatment recommendations according to easily attainable individual patient data. Methods and Results This Universal Clinician Device (UCD) was created using the GARFIELD-AF registry using a split sample approach. The GARFIELD-AF risk tool was adapted with two modifications. First, predictors with ≥1000 missing data points were separated, allowing expected risks estimation. Second, recommendations for modifiable risk factors and associated 2-year outcome estimates were incorporated. Outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding. All patients were randomized to a derivation (n = 34853) and validation cohort (n = 17165). In the derivation cohort, predictors were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Cox models were fitted with the selected parameters. The UCD demonstrated superior predictive power compared with CHA2DS2VASc for all-cause mortality [0.75(0.75-0.76) vs. 0.71(0.70-0.72)] and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE [0.68(0.66-0.70) vs. 0.65(0.63-0.67)], and with HAS-BLED for major bleeding [0.69(0.67-0.71) vs. 0.64(0.62-0.65)]. Universal Clinician Device recommendations reduced all-cause mortality (8.45-5.42%) and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (2.58-1.50%). Patients with concomitant diabetes and chronic kidney disease benefitted further, reducing mortality risk from 13.15% to 8.67%. One-third of patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of >1 had the lowest risk of stroke. Conclusion The UCD simultaneously predicts mortality, stroke, and bleeding risk in patients using easily attainable individual clinical data and guideline-based optimized treatment plans. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF: NCT01090362.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Saverio Virdone
- Department of Statistics, The Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Karen Pieper
- Department of Statistics, The Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Gloria Kayani
- Department of Statistics, The Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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19
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Apenteng PN, Virdone S, Hobbs FR, Camm AJ, Fox KA, Pieper KS, Kayani G, Fitzmaurice D. Two-year outcomes of UK patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation: findings from the prospective observational cohort study GARFIELD-AF. Br J Gen Pract 2022; 72:BJGP.2021.0548. [PMID: 35577587 PMCID: PMC9119814 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp.2021.0548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The outcomes of patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) following the introduction of direct-acting oral anticoagulants are not well known. AIM To determine the 2-year outcomes of patients newly diagnosed with AF, and the effectiveness of oral anticoagulants in everyday practice. DESIGN AND SETTING This was a prospective observational cohort study in UK primary care. METHOD In total, 3574 patients aged ≥18 years with a new AF diagnosis were enrolled. A propensity score was applied using an overlap weighting scheme to obtain unbiased estimates of the treatment effect of anticoagulation versus no anticoagulation on the occurrence of death, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding within 2 years of diagnosis. RESULTS Overall, 65.8% received anticoagulant therapy, 20.8% received an antiplatelet only, and 13.4% received neither. During the study period, the overall incidence rates of all-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism, and major bleeding were 4.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.69 to 4.65), 1.45 (95% CI = 1.19 to 1.77), and 1.21 (95% CI = 0.97 to 1.50) per 100 person-years, respectively. Anticoagulation treatment compared with no anticoagulation treatment was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.70 (95% CI = 0.53 to 0.93), significantly lower risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (aHR 0.39, 95% CI = 0.24 to 0.62), and a non-significant higher risk of major bleeding (aHR 1.31, 95% CI = 0.77 to 2.24). CONCLUSION The data support a benefit of anticoagulation in reducing stroke and death, without an increased risk of a major bleed in patients with new-onset AF. Anticoagulation treatment in patients at high risk of stroke who are not receiving anticoagulation may further improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Fd Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield professor of primary care health sciences, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Radcliffe Primary Care Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, University of Oxford, Oxford
| | - A John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group, Molecular & Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St George's University of London, London
| | - Keith Aa Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh
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