Targeted vs. full population screening costs for incident atrial fibrillation and AF-related stroke for a healthy population aged 65 years in the United Kingdom

Estimating the impact of implementing an integrated care management approach with Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway for patients with atrial fibrillation in England from 2020 to 2040

BACKGROUND

Stroke prevention is central to the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), but there remains a residual risk of adverse outcomes in anticoagulated AF patients. Hence, current guidelines have proposed a more holistic or integrated approach to AF management, based on the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway, as follows: (A) avoid stroke with anticoagulation; (B) better symptom control with patient-centred symptom directed decisions on rate or rhythm control; and (C) cardiovascular and comorbidity management, including lifestyle factors. There has been no formal healthcare cost analysis from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective of ABC pathway implementation to optimize the management of AF. Our aim was to estimate the number of patients with AF in the UK each year up to 2040, their morbidity and mortality, and the associated healthcare costs, and secondly, to estimate improvements in morbidity and mortality of implementing an ABC pathway, and the impact on costs.

RESULTS

In 2020, there were an estimated 1 463 538 AF patients, resulting in £286 million of stroke care and £191 million of care related to bleeds annually. By 2030, it is expected that there will be 2 115 332 AF patients, resulting in £666 million of stroke healthcare and £444 million of healthcare related to bleeds. By 2040, this is expected to rise to 2 856 489 AF patients, with £1096 million of stroke healthcare and £731 million of healthcare related to bleeds for that year. If in 2040 patients are managed on an ABC pathway, this could prevent between 3724 and 18 622 strokes and between 5378 and 26 890 bleeds, and save between 16 131 and 80 653 lives depending on the proportion of patients managed on the pathway. This would equate to cost reductions of between £143.9 million and £719.6 million for the year.

CONCLUSION

We estimate that there will be a substantial healthcare burden in the UK NHS associated with AF, from strokes, bleeds, and mortality over the next decades. If patients are managed with a holistic or integrated care approach based on the ABC pathway, this could prevent strokes and bleeds that equate to substantial NHS healthcare cost reductions, and save lives.

H. Lip G, Thomas GN, J. Moore D, Nirantharakumar K, Kumarendran B, Subaschandran K, Kanesamoorthy S, Uruthirakumar P, Guruparan M. Diagnostic accuracy of digital technologies compared with 12-lead ECG in the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation in adults: A protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia in the world. AF increases the risk of stroke 5-fold, though the risk can be reduced with appropriate treatment. Therefore, early diagnosis is imperative but remains a global challenge. In low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), a lack of diagnostic equipment and under-resourced healthcare systems generate further barriers. The rapid development of digital technologies that are capable of diagnosing AF remotely and cost-effectively could prove beneficial for LMICs. However, evidence is lacking on what digital technologies exist and how they compare in regards to diagnostic accuracy. We aim to systematically review the diagnostic accuracy of all digital technologies capable of AF diagnosis.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science will be searched for eligible studies. Free text terms will be combined with corresponding index terms where available and searches will not be limited by language nor time of publication. Cohort or cross-sectional studies comprising adult (≥18 years) participants will be included. Only studies that use a 12-lead ECG as the reference test (comparator) and report outcomes of sensitivity, specificity, the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) or the positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) will be included (or if they provide sufficient data to calculate these outcomes). Two reviewers will independently assess articles for inclusion, extract data using a piloted tool and assess risk of bias using the QUADAS-2 tool. The feasibility of a meta-analysis will be determined by assessing heterogeneity across the studies, grouped by index device, diagnostic threshold and setting. If a meta-analysis is feasible for any index device, pooled sensitivity and specificity will be calculated using a random effect model and presented in forest plots.

DISCUSSION

The findings of our review will provide a comprehensive synthesis of the diagnostic accuracy of available digital technologies capable for diagnosing AF. Thus, this review will aid in the identification of which devices could be further trialed and implemented, particularly in a LMIC setting, to improve the early diagnosis of AF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registration number is CRD42021290542. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021290542.

The Cost of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, with an increasing incidence and prevalence because of progressively aging populations. Costs related to AF are both direct and indirect. This systematic review aims to identify the main cost drivers of the illness, assess the potential economic impact resulting from changes in care strategies, and propose interventions where they are most needed.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of the PubMed and Scopus databases was performed to identify analytical observational studies defining the cost of illness in cases of AF. The search strategy was based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) 2020 recommendations.

RESULTS

Of the 944 articles retrieved, 24 met the inclusion criteria. These studies were conducted in several countries. All studies calculated the direct medical costs, whereas 8 of 24 studies assessed indirect costs. The median annual direct medical cost per patient, considering all studies, was €9409 (13 333 US dollars in purchasing power parities), with a very large variability due to the heterogeneity of different analyses. Hospitalization costs are generally the main cost drivers. Comorbidities and complications, such as stroke, considerably increase the average annual direct medical cost of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

In most of the analyzed studies, inpatient care cost represents the main component of the mean direct medical cost per patient. Stroke and heart failure are responsible for a large share of the total costs; therefore, implementing guidelines to manage comorbidities in AF is a necessary step to improve health and mitigate healthcare costs.

Atrial fibrillation: epidemiology, screening and digital health

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is highly prevalent with a lifetime risk of about 1 in 3-5 individuals after the age of 45 years. Between 2010 and 2019, the global prevalence of AF has risen markedly from 33.5 million to 59 million individuals living with AF. Early detection of AF and implementation of appropriate treatment could reduce the frequency of complications associated with AF. International AF management guidelines recommend opportunistic and systematic screening for AF, but additional data are needed. Digital approaches and pathways have been proposed for early detection and for the transition to early AF management. Mobile health (mHealth) devices provide an opportunity for digital screening and should be part of novel models of care delivery based on integrated AF care pathways. For a broad implementation of mHealth-based, integrated care for patients with chronic diseases as AF, further high quality evidence is necessary. In this review, we present an overview of the present data on epidemiology, screening techniques, and the contribution of digital health solutions to the integrated management of AF. We also provide a systemic review on current data of digital and integrated AF management.

Asymptomatic vs. symptomatic atrial fibrillation: Clinical outcomes in heart failure patients

BACKGROUND

The outcome implications of asymptomatic vs. symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF) in specific groups of patients according to clinical heart failure (HF) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) need to be clarified.

METHODS

In a prospective observational study, patients were categorized according to overt HF with LVEF≤40 %, or with LVEF>40 %, or without overt HF with LVEF40 %≤ or > 40 %, as well as according to the presence of asymptomatic or symptomatic AF.

RESULTS

A total of 8096 patients, divided into 8 groups according to HF and LVEF, were included with similar proportions of asymptomatic AF (ranging from 43 to 48 %). After a median follow-up of 730 [699 -748] days, the composite outcome (all-cause death and MACE) was significantly worse for patients with asymptomatic AF associated with HF and reduced LVEF vs. symptomatic AF patients of the same group (p = 0.004). On adjusted Cox regression analysis, asymptomatic AF patients with HF and reduced LVEF were independently associated with a higher risk for the composite outcome (aHR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.04-1.69) and all-cause death (aHR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.02-1.73) compared to symptomatic AF patients with HF and reduced LVEF. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that HF-LVEF≤40 % asymptomatic patients had the highest cumulative incidence of all-cause death and MACE (p < 0.001 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large European cohort of AF patients, the risk of the composite outcome at 2 years was not different between asymptomatic and symptomatic AF in the whole cohort but adverse implications for poor outcomes were found for asymptomatic AF in HF with LVEF≤40 %.

ABC-AF-Stroke score predicts thromboembolism in non-anticoagulated patients following successful atrial fibrillation ablation: a report from the Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry

BACKGROUND

The age, biomarkers, and clinical history (ABC)-atrial fibrillation (AF)-Stroke score have been proposed to refine stroke risk stratification, beyond what clinical risk scores such as the CHA2DS2-VASc score can offer. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with thromboembolism and evaluate the performance of the ABC-AF-Stroke score in predicting thromboembolism in non-anticoagulated AF patients following successful ablations.

METHODS

A total of 2692 patients who underwent successful ablations with discontinued anticoagulation after a 3-month blanking period in the Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry (CAFR) between 2013 and 2019 were included. Cox regression analysis was conducted to present the association of risk factors with thromboembolism risk. The ABC-AF-Stroke score was evaluated in terms of discrimination, including concordance index (C-index), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), clinical utilization by decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration by comparing the predicted risk with the observed annualized event rate.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 64 patients experienced thromboembolism events. Age, prior history of stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT-hs), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were independently associated with thromboembolism risk. The ABC-AF-Stroke score performed statistically significantly better than the CHA2DS2-VASc score in terms of C-index (0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.74 vs. 0.60, 95% CI: 0.52-0.67, P = 0.030) and reclassification capacity. The DCA implied that the ABC-AF-Stroke score could identify more thromboembolism events without increasing the false positive rate compared to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. The calibration curve showed that the ABC-AF-Stroke score was well calibrated in this population.

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-world study enrolling non-anticoagulated AF patients following successful ablations, age, prior history of stroke/TIA, level of NT-proBNP, and cTnT-hs were independently associated with an increased risk of thromboembolism. The ABC-AF-Stroke score was well-calibrated and statistically significantly outperformed the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting thromboembolism risk.

Electronic health record-wide association study for atrial fibrillation in a British cohort

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) confers a major healthcare burden from hospitalisations and AF-related complications, such as stroke and heart failure. We performed an electronic health records-wide association study to identify the most frequent reasons for healthcare utilization, pre and post new-onset AF.

Methods

Prospective cohort study with the linked electronic health records of 5.6 million patients in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1998-2016). A cohort study with AF patients and their age-and sex matched controls was implemented to compare the top 100 reasons of frequent hospitalisation and primary consultation.

Results

Of the 199,433 patients who developed AF, we found the most frequent healthcare interactions to be cardiac, cerebrovascular and peripheral-vascular conditions, both prior to AF diagnosis (41/100 conditions in secondary care, such as cerebral infarction and valve diseases; and 33/100 conditions in primary care), and subsequently (47/100 conditions hospital care and 48 conditions in primary care). There was a high representation of repeated visits for cancer and infection affecting multiple organ systems. We identified 10 novel conditions which have not yet been associated with AF: folic acid deficiency, pancytopenia, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, seborrheic dermatitis, lymphoedema, angioedema, laryngopharyngeal reflux, rib fracture, haemorrhagic gastritis, inflammatory polyneuropathies.

Conclusion

Our nationwide data provide knowledge and better understanding of the clinical needs of AF patients suggesting: (i) groups at higher risk of AF, where screening may be more cost-effective, and (ii) potential complications developing following new-onset AF that can be prevented through implementation of comprehensive integrated care management and more personalised, tailored treatment.

Clinical trial registration

NCT04786366.