Aortic valve repair in neonates, infants and children: a systematic review, meta-analysis and microsimulation study

How microsimulation translates outcome estimates to patient lifetime event occurrence in the setting of heart valve disease

Treatment decisions in healthcare often carry lifelong consequences that can be challenging to foresee. As such, tools that visualize and estimate outcome after different lifetime treatment strategies are lacking and urgently needed to support clinical decision-making in the setting of rapidly evolving healthcare systems, with increasingly numerous potential treatments. In this regard, microsimulation models may prove to be valuable additions to current risk-prediction models. Notable advantages of microsimulation encompass input from multiple data sources, the ability to move beyond time-to-first-event analysis, accounting for multiple types of events and generating projections of lifelong outcomes. This review aims to clarify the concept of microsimulation, also known as individualized state-transition models, and help clinicians better understand its potential in clinical decision-making. A practical example of a patient with heart valve disease is used to illustrate key components of microsimulation models, such as health states, transition probabilities, input parameters (e.g. evidence-based risks of events) and various aspects of mortality. Finally, this review focuses on future efforts needed in microsimulation to allow for increasing patient-tailoring of the models by extending the general structure with patient-specific prediction models and translating them to meaningful, user-friendly tools that may be used by both clinician and patient to support clinical decision-making.

Aortic Valve Embryology, Mechanobiology, and Second Messenger Pathways: Implications for Clinical Practice

During the Renaissance, Leonardo Da Vinci was the first person to successfully detail the anatomy of the aortic root and its adjacent structures. Ever since, novel insights into morphology, function, and their interplay have accumulated, resulting in advanced knowledge on the complex functional characteristics of the aortic valve (AV) and root. This has shifted our vision from the AV as being a static structure towards that of a dynamic interconnected apparatus within the aortic root as a functional unit, exhibiting a complex interplay with adjacent structures via both humoral and mechanical stimuli. This paradigm shift has stimulated surgical treatment strategies of valvular disease that seek to recapitulate healthy AV function, whereby AV disease can no longer be seen as an isolated morphological pathology which needs to be replaced. As prostheses still cannot reproduce the complexity of human nature, treatment of diseased AVs, whether stenotic or insufficient, has tremendously evolved, with a similar shift towards treatments options that are more hemodynamically centered, such as the Ross procedure and valve-conserving surgery. Native AV and root components allow for an efficient Venturi effect over the valve to allow for optimal opening during the cardiac cycle, while also alleviating the left ventricle. Next to that, several receptors are present on native AV leaflets, enabling messenger pathways based on their interaction with blood and other shear-stress-related stimuli. Many of these physiological and hemodynamical processes are under-acknowledged but may hold important clues for innovative treatment strategies, or as potential novel targets for therapeutic agents that halt or reverse the process of valve degeneration. A structured overview of these pathways and their implications for cardiothoracic surgeons and cardiologists is lacking. As such, we provide an overview on embryology, hemodynamics, and messenger pathways of the healthy and diseased AV and its implications for clinical practice, by relating this knowledge to current treatment alternatives and clinical decision making.

Long-term surgical outcomes of congenital supravalvular aortic stenosis: a systematic review, meta-analysis and microsimulation study

OBJECTIVES

Congenital supravalvular aortic stenosis (SVAS) is a rare form of congenital outflow tract obstruction and long-term outcomes are scarcely reported. This study aims to provide an overview of outcomes after surgical repair for congenital SVAS.

METHODS

A systematic review of published literature was conducted, including observational studies reporting long-term clinical outcome (>2 years) after SVAS repair in children or adults considering >20 patients. Early risks, late event rates and time-to-event data were pooled and entered into a microsimulation model to estimate 30-year outcomes. Life expectancy was compared to the age-, sex- and origin-matched general population.

RESULTS

Twenty-three publications were included, encompassing a total of 1472 patients (13 125 patient-years; pooled mean follow-up: 9.0 (6.2) years; median follow-up: 6.3 years). Pooled mean age at surgical repair was 4.7 (5.8) years and the most commonly used surgical technique was the single-patch repair (43.6%). Pooled early mortality was 4.2% (95% confidence interval: 3.2-5.5%) and late mortality was 0.61% (95% CI: 0.45-0.83) per patient-year. Based on microsimulation, over a 30-year time horizon, it was estimated that an average patient with SVAS repair (mean age: 4.7 years) had an observed life expectancy that was 90.7% (95% credible interval: 90.0-91.6%) of expected life expectancy in the matched general population. The microsimulation-based 30-year risk of myocardial infarction was 8.1% (95% credible interval: 7.3-9.9%) and reintervention 31.3% (95% credible interval: 29.6-33.4%), of which 27.2% (95% credible interval: 25.8-29.1) due to repair dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

After surgical repair for SVAS, 30-year survival is lower than the matched-general-population survival and the lifetime risk of reintervention is considerable. Therefore, lifelong monitoring of the cardiovascular system and in particular residual stenosis and coronary obstruction is recommended.