Early diagnosis of cardiac allograft vasculopathy: biopsy, liquid biopsy, non-invasive imaging, coronary imaging, or coronary physiology?

Computational Analysis of Routine Biopsies Improves Diagnosis and Prediction of Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy

Background: Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality for heart transplant recipients. While clinical risk factors for CAV have been established, no personalized prognostic test exists to confidently identify patients at high vs. low risk of developing aggressive CAV. The aim of this investigation was to leverage computational methods for analyzing digital pathology images from routine endomyocardial biopsies (EMB) to develop a precision medicine tool for predicting CAV years before overt clinical presentation. Methods: Clinical data from 1-year post-transplant was collected on 302 transplant recipients from the University of Pennsylvania, including 53 'early CAV' patients and 249 'no-CAV' controls. This data was used to generate a 'clinical model' (ClinCAV-Pr) for predicting future CAV development. From this cohort, n=183 archived EMBs were collected for CD31 and modified trichrome staining and then digitally scanned. These included 1-year post-transplant EMBs from 50 'early CAV' patients and 82 no-CAV patients, as well as 51 EMBs from 'disease control' patients obtained at the time of definitive coronary angiography confirming CAV. Using biologically-inspired, hand-crafted features extracted from digitized EMBs, quantitative histologic models for differentiating no-CAV from disease controls (HistoCAV-Dx), and for predicting future CAV from 1-year post-transplant EMBs were developed (HistoCAV-Pr). The performance of histologic and clinical models for predicting future CAV (i.e. HistoCAV-Pr and ClinCAV-Pr, respectively) were compared in a held-out validation set, before being combined to assess the added predictive value of an integrated predictive model (iCAV-Pr). Results: ClinCAV-Pr achieved modest performance on the independent test set, with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.70. The HistoCAV-Dx model for diagnosing CAV achieved excellent discrimination, with an AUROC of 0.91, while HistoCAV-Pr model for predicting CAV achieved good performance with an AUROC of 0.80. The integrated iCAV-Pr model achieved excellent predictive performance, with an AUROC of 0.93 on the held-out test set. Conclusions: Prediction of future CAV development is greatly improved by incorporation of computationally extracted histologic features. These results suggest morphologic details contained within regularly obtained biopsy tissue have the potential to enhance precision and personalization of treatment plans for post-heart transplant patients.