Ethnic Disparities in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Outcomes and Processes of Care in Patients With and Without Standard Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Trials suggest patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) without 'standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors' (SMuRFs) have poorer outcomes, but the role of ethnicity has not been investigated. We analyzed 118,177 STEMI patients using the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) registry. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression models; patients with ≥1 SMuRF (n = 88,055) were compared with 'SMuRFless' patients (n = 30,122), with subgroup analysis comparing outcomes of White and Ethnic minority patients. SMuRFless patients had higher incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (odds ratio, OR: 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.16) and in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18) after adjusting for demographics, Killip classification, cardiac arrest, and comorbidities. When additionally adjusting for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and revascularisation (percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafts surgery (CABG)), results for in-hospital mortality were no longer significant (OR 1.05, 95% CI .97-1.13). There were no significant differences in outcomes according to ethnicity. Ethnic minority patients were more likely to undergo revascularisation with ≥1 SMuRF (88 vs 80%, P < .001) or SMuRFless (87 vs 77%, P < .001. Ethnic minority patients were more likely undergo ICA and revascularisation regardless of SMuRF status.

Very early vs delayed invasive strategy in high-risk NSTEMI patients without hemodynamic instability: Insight from the KAMIR-NIH

BACKGROUND

High-risk non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients' optimal timing for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is debated despite the recommendation for early invasive revascularization. This study aimed to compare outcomes of NSTEMI patients without hemodynamic instability undergoing very early invasive strategy (VEIS, ≤ 12 hours) versus delayed invasive strategy (DIS, >12 hours).

METHODS

Excluding urgent indications for PCI including initial systolic blood pressure under 90 mmHg, ventricular arrhythmia, or Killip class IV, 4,733 NSTEMI patients were recruited from the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry-National Institutes of Health (KAMIR-NIH). Patients were divided into low and high- global registry of acute coronary events risk score risk score (GRS) groups based on 140. Both groups were then categorized into VEIS and DIS. Clinical outcomes, including all-cause death (ACD), cardiac death (CD), recurrent MI, and cerebrovascular accident at 12 months, were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 4,733 NSTEMI patients, 62% had low GRS, and 38% had high GRS. The proportions of VEIS and DIS were 43% vs. 57% in the low GRS group and 47% vs. 53% in the high GRS group. In the low GRS group, VEIS and DIS demonstrated similar outcomes; however, in the high GRS group, VEIS exhibited worse ACD outcomes compared to DIS (HR = 1.46, P = 0.003). The adverse effect of VEIS was consistent with propensity score matched analysis (HR = 1.34, P = 0.042).

CONCLUSION

VEIS yielded worse outcomes than DIS in high-risk NSTEMI patients without hemodynamic instability in real-world practice.

Socioeconomic and Ethnic Disparities in the Process of Care and Outcomes Among Cancer Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

Cancer and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, with many shared risk factors. There are several challenges to the management of patients with cancer presenting with ACS, owing to their higher baseline risk profile, the complexities of their cancer-related therapies and prognosis, and their higher risk of adverse outcomes after ACS. Although previous studies have demonstrated disparities in the care of both cancer and ACS among patients from ethnic minorities and socioeconomic deprivation, there is limited evidence around the magnitude of such disparities specifically in cancer patients presenting with ACS. This review summarises the current literature on differences in prevalence and management of ACS among patients with cancer from ethnic minorities and socioeconomically deprived backgrounds, as well as the gaps in evidence around the care of this high-risk population and potential solutions.

A machine-learning-based prediction of non-home discharge among acute heart failure patients

BACKGROUND

Scarce data on factors related to discharge disposition in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF) were available, and we sought to develop a parsimonious and simple predictive model for non-home discharge via machine learning.

METHODS

This observational cohort study using a Japanese national database included 128,068 patients admitted from home for AHF between April 2014 and March 2018. The candidate predictors for non-home discharge were patient demographics, comorbidities, and treatment performed within 2 days after hospital admission. We used 80% of the population to develop a model using all 26 candidate variables and using the variable selected by 1 standard-error rule of Lasso regression, which enhances interpretability, and 20% to validate the predictive ability.

RESULTS

We analyzed 128,068 patients, and 22,330 patients were not discharged to home; 7,879 underwent in-hospital death and 14,451 were transferred to other facilities. The machine-learning-based model consisted of 11 predictors, showing a discrimination ability comparable to that using all the 26 variables (c-statistic: 0.760 [95% confidence interval, 0.752-0.767] vs. 0.761 [95% confidence interval, 0.753-0.769]). The common 1SE-selected variables identified throughout all analyses were low scores in activities of daily living, advanced age, absence of hypertension, impaired consciousness, failure to initiate enteral alimentation within 2 days and low body weight.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed machine learning model using 11 predictors had a good predictive ability to identify patients at high risk for non-home discharge. Our findings would contribute to the effective care coordination in this era when HF is rapidly increasing in prevalence.

A Prediction Model Based on Systemic Immune-Inflammatory Index Combined with Other Predictors for Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic value of the systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) for predicting in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and establish a relevant nomogram.

Methods

This study included 954 AMI patients. We examined three inflammatory factors (SII, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR)) to see which one predicts in-hospital MACEs better. The predictors were subsequently screened using bidirectional stepwise regression method, and a MACE nomogram was constructed via logistic regression analysis. The predictive value of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. In addition, the clinical utility of the nomogram was evaluated using decision curve analysis. We also compared the nomogram with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scoring system.

Results

334 (35.0%) patients had MACEs. The SII (AUC =0.684) had a greater predictive value for in-hospital MACEs in AMI patients than the PLR (AUC =0.597, P<0.001) or NLR (AUC=0.654, P=0.01). The area under the curve (AUC) of the SII-based multivariable model for predicting MACEs, which was based on the SII, Killip classification, left ventricular ejection fraction, age, urea nitrogen (BUN) concentration and electrocardiogram-based diagnosis, was 0.862 (95% CI: 0.833-0.891). Decision curve and calibration curve analysis revealed that SII-based multivariable model demonstrated a good fit and calibration and provided positive net benefits than the model without SII. The predictive value of the SII-based multivariable model was greater than that of the GRACE scoring system (P<0.001).

Conclusion

SII is a promising, reliable biomarker for identifying AMI patients at high risk of in-hospital MACEs, and SII-based multivariable model may serve as a quick and easy tool to identify these patients.

The Prognostic Value of the Age-D-Dimer-Albumin Score in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

 The Age-D-dimer-Albumin (ADA), the CREDO-Kyoto, and the PARIS scores have been established to predict thrombotic events. However, the prognostic performance of these scores compared to the GRACE score in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been reported.

METHODS

 Consecutive AMI patients treated with PCI were retrospectively enrolled at a teaching hospital in China from January 2016 to December 2019. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was cardiac death. Harrell's C-index and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to compare the prognostic value of these scores with the GRACE score for mortality.

RESULTS

 Of the 1,578 patients enrolled, the mean age was 62.5 years, and 23.5% were female. During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, 146 all-cause deaths and 80 cardiac deaths occurred. The ADA score showed a better prognostic performance than the GRACE (Harrell's C-index: 0.800 vs. 0.749; p = 0.003), the CREDO-Kyoto (Harrell's C-index: 0.800 vs. 0.765; NRI = 0.348, p < 0.001), and the PARIS scores (Harrell's C-index: 0.800 vs. 0.694; NRI = 0.556, p < 0.001). In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the ADA score was independently associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.641 per 10-point increment, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.397-1.929) and cardiac death (HR = 1.636 per 10-point increment, 95% CI: 1.325-2.020). The risk of all-cause mortality and cardiac death increased with the rising of the ADA score.

CONCLUSION

 The ADA score showed a better prognostic performance than the GRACE, the CREDO-Kyoto, and the PARIS scores in patients with AMI undergoing PCI, which was a potential predictive tool for mortality.

Triglyceride-glucose body mass index predicts prognosis in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Triglyceride glycemic-body mass index (TyG-BMI) is a simple and reliable surrogate for insulin resistance (IR). However, it is still unclear if TyG-BMI has any predictive value in patients having percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The purpose of this study was to examine the TyG-BMI index's prognostic significance and predictive power in patients with STEMI. The study comprised a total of 2648 consecutive STEMI patients who underwent PCI. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as the combination of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and coronary revascularization. The TyG-BMI index was formulated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2] × BMI. 193 patients in all experienced MACE over a median follow-up of 14.7 months. There was a statistically significant difference between the Kaplan-Meier survival curves for the TyG-BMI index tertiles (log-rank test, p = 0.019) for the cumulative incidence of MACE. The adjusted HRs for the incidence of MACE in the middle and highest quartiles of the TyG-BMI index compared with the lowest quartile were 1.37 (95% CI 0.92, 2.03) and 1.53 (95% CI 1.02, 2.29), respectively, in the fully adjusted Cox regression model. At six months, one year, and three years, the TyG-BMI area under the curve (AUC) for predicting MACE was 0.691, 0.666, and 0.637, respectively. Additionally, adding the TyG-BMI index to the risk prediction model enhanced outcome prediction. In STEMI patients undergoing PCI, TyG-BMI was independently linked to MACE. TyG-BMI could be a simple and solid way to assess MACE risk and prognosis.

Supra-Normal Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction as a Prognostic Marker for Long-Term Outcomes in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Recently, the supra-normal left ventricular ejection fraction (snLVEF) has been proposed, based on extensive datasets indicating increased all-cause mortality in individuals with an LVEF exceeding 65%. However, the implications of an LVEF > 65% in the context of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remain underexplored.The aim of the present study was to investigate the correlation between supra-normal left ventricular ejection fraction (snLVEF) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ACS.Methods: A total of 874 ACS patients (560 men, mean age 59.5 ± 10.0; 314 women, mean age 61.5 ± 8.9) who underwent their first coronary angiography during the period from March 2013 to October 2015 were divided into 2 groups: normal LVEF (nLVEF) (55% ≤ EF ≤ 65%) and snLVEF (EF > 65%), according to their echocardiography results. The patients were evaluated for MACE after surgery by collecting clinical data and long-term follow-up data. This correlation was further analyzed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression analysis.The follow-up data revealed a significantly higher incidence of MACE among snLVEF patients compared to the nLVEF group (15.6% versus 7.4%; P = 0.020). This heightened risk persisted even after adjustment for multiple variables, indicating a strong association between snLVEF and increased MACE risk (HR: 2.346; 95% CI: 1.196-4.602; P = 0.013).SnLVEF was independently associated with poor prognosis after ACS. Enhanced management strategies for snLVEF patients could potentially reduce the incidence of MACE in ACS patients.

RBP4-based Multimarker Score: A Prognostic Tool for Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients

CONTEXT

Retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4) has been implicated in the progression of cardiovascular diseases. However, its association with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains obscure.

OBJECTIVE

Here, we examined the prognostic value of baseline RBP4 and its derived multimarker score for MACEs in ACS patients.

METHODS

A total of 826 patients with ACS were consecutively recruited from the department of cardiology and prospectively followed up for a median of 1.95 years (interquartile range, 1.02-3.25 years). Plasma RBP4 was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Adjusted associations between RBP4 and its derived multimarker score (1 point was assigned when RBP4 ≥ 38.18μg/mL, left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] ≤ 55%, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] ≥ 450 ng/L, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age ≥60) with MACEs were analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 269 ACS patients (32.57%) experienced MACEs. When patients were grouped by multimarker score (0-1, n = 315; 2-3, n = 406; 4-5, n = 105), there was a significant graded association between RBP4-based multimarker score and risk of MACEs (intermediate score (2-3): HRadj: 1.80; 95% CI, 1.34-2.41; high score (4-5): HRadj: 3.26; 95% CI, 2.21-4.81) and its components (P < .05 for each). Moreover, the prognostic and discriminative value of the RBP4-derived multimarker score remained robust in ACS patients with various high-risk anatomical or clinical characteristics.

CONCLUSION

The RBP4-derived 5-item score serves as a useful risk stratification and decision support for secondary prevention in patients with ACS.

Dipeptidyl peptidase 3 plasma levels predict cardiogenic shock and mortality in acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (DPP3) is a protease involved in the degradation of angiotensin II which disturbs peripheral blood pressure regulation and compromises left ventricular function. This study examined the relationship of circulating DPP3 (cDPP3) with cardiogenic shock (CS) and mortality in patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS).

METHODS

Plasma cDPP3 levels were assessed at baseline and 12-24 h after presentation in patients with ACS prospectively enrolled into the multi-centre SPUM-ACS study (n = 4787).

RESULTS

Circulating DPP3 levels were associated with in-hospital CS when accounting for established risk factors including the ORBI risk score [per log-2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) 1.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.82, P = .021]. High cDPP3 was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 days (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.36-2.58, P < .001) and at one year (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.28-2.02, P < .001) after adjustment for established risk factors and the GRACE 2.0 score. Compared to values within the normal range, persistently elevated cDPP3 levels at 12-24 h were associated with 13.4-fold increased 30-day mortality risk (HR 13.42, 95% CI 4.86-37.09, P < .001) and 5.8-fold increased 1-year mortality risk (HR 5.79, 95% CI 2.70-12.42, P < .001). Results were consistent across various patient subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies cDPP3 as a novel marker of CS and increased mortality in patients with ACS. Circulating DPP3 offers prognostic information beyond established risk factors and improves early risk assessment.

Association of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances with hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease among patients with acute coronary syndrome

Etiology of hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) among acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains unclear. Existing studies suggested the potential role of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in comorbidity of hepatic steatosis among ACS patients. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study based on the ACS inpatients to assess the associations of plasma PFAS congeners and mixtures with hepatic steatosis and MAFLD. This study included 546 newly diagnosed ACS patients. Twelve PFAS were quantified using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Hepatic steatosis was defined by hepatic steatosis index (HSI). MAFLD was defined as the combination of hepatic steatosis based on the risk factor calculation with metabolic abnormalities. Generalized linear model was used to examine the associations of PFAS congeners with HSI and MAFLD. Adaptive elastic net (AENET) was further used for PFAS congeners selection. Mixture effects were also assessed with Bayesian kernel machine regression model (BKMR). Congeners analysis observed significant greater percent change of HSI for each doubling in PFOS (1.82%, 95% CI: 0.87%, 2.77%), PFHxS (1.17%, 95% CI: 0.46%, 1.89%) and total PFAS (1.84%, 95% CI: 0.56%, 3.14%). Moreover, each doubling in PFOS (OR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.81), PFHxS (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.59) and total PFAS (OR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.94) was associated with increased risk of MAFLD. In AENET regression, only PFOS presented significant positive associations with HSI. Mixture analysis indicated significant positive associations between PFAS mixtures and HSI. This is the first study to demonstrate associations of PFAS congeners and mixtures with hepatic steatosis and MAFLD among ACS patients, which provides hypothesis into the mechanisms behind comorbidity of hepatic steatosis among ACS patients, as well as tertiary prevention of ACS.

Adjustment of the GRACE score by the stress hyperglycemia ratio improves the prediction of long-term major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: A multicenter retrospective study

AIMS

The predictive value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) for long-term prognosis in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is inconsistent. Whether the SHR provides additional prognostic value in addition to the GRACE score in ACS patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains unknown.

METHODS

A development-validation method was adopted to develop an algorithm to adjust the GRACE score using the SHR in ACS patients undergoing PCI from 11 hospitals.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 31.33 months, the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), defined as a composite of all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction, was more frequent in the patients with a higher level of SHR. The SHR independently predicted long-term MACEs (hazard ratio 3.3479; 95% CI 1.4103-7.9475; P = 0.0062). Adjustment of the GRACE risk by addition of the SHR increased the C-statistic from 0.706 (95% CI: 0.599-0.813) to 0.727 (95% CI: 0.616-0.837) (P < 0.01), with a continuous net reclassification improvement of 30.5% and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.042 (P < 0.01) in the derivation cohort; and addition of the SHR showed superior discrimination and good calibration in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHR is an independent predictor of long-term MACEs in ACS patients undergoing PCI and markedly improves the performance of the GRACE score.

Association between Percentage of Neutrophils at Admission and in-Hospital Events in Patients ≥75 Years of Age with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Objective: The study aimed to evaluate the role of the neutrophil percentage (N%) at admission in predicting in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients ≥75 years of age with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Methods: A total of 1189 patients above 75 years of age with ACS hospitalized at the Second Xiangya Hospital between January 2013 and December 2017 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis was performed to calculate the optimal N% cut-off value for patient grouping. The in-hospital MACE consisted of acute left heart failure, stroke and any cause of death. Multivariable logistic analyses were used to assess the role of N% in predicting MACE in older patients with ACS.

Results: The patients were divided into a high N% group (N% ≥74.17%, n=396) and low N% group (N%<74.17%, n=793) according to the N% cut-off value (N%=74.17%). The rate of MACEs during hospitalization was considerably higher in the high N% group than the low N% group (27.5% vs. 9.6%, P<0.001). After adjustment for other factors, high N% remained an independent risk factor for in-hospital MACE in older patients with ACS (odds ratio 1.779, 95% confidence interval 1.091–2.901, P=0.021).

Conclusion: High N% at admission is an independent risk factor for in-hospital MACE in patients above 75 years of age with ACS.

Association between Percentage of Neutrophils at Admission and in-Hospital Events in Patients ≥75 Years of Age with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Objective: The study aimed to evaluate the role of the neutrophil percentage (N%) at admission in predicting in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients ≥75 years of age with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Methods: A total of 1189 patients above 75 years of age with ACS hospitalized at the Second Xiangya Hospital between January 2013 and December 2017 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis was performed to calculate the optimal N% cut-off value for patient grouping. The in-hospital MACE consisted of acute left heart failure, stroke and any cause of death. Multivariable logistic analyses were used to assess the role of N% in predicting MACE in older patients with ACS.

Results: The patients were divided into a high N% group (N% ≥74.17%, n=396) and low N% group (N%<74.17%, n=793) according to the N% cut-off value (N%=74.17%). The rate of MACEs during hospitalization was considerably higher in the high N% group than the low N% group (27.5% vs. 9.6%, P<0.001). After adjustment for other factors, high N% remained an independent risk factor for in-hospital MACE in older patients with ACS (odds ratio 1.779, 95% confidence interval 1.091–2.901, P=0.021).

Conclusion: High N% at admission is an independent risk factor for in-hospital MACE in patients above 75 years of age with ACS.

Diagnostic ability using fatty liver and metabolic markers for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease stratified by metabolic/glycemic abnormalities

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

Although several noninvasive predictive markers for fatty liver and metabolic markers have been used for fatty liver prediction, whether such markers can also predict metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) remains unclear. We aimed to examine the ability of existing fatty liver or metabolic markers to predict MAFLD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Participants in a high-volume center in Tokyo were classified into groups with and without MAFLD, based on the presence of metabolic abnormalities and fatty liver diagnosed through abdominal ultrasonography, between 2008 and 2018. The diagnostic abilities of three fatty liver markers: fatty liver index (FLI), hepatic steatosis index (HSI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP), and three common metabolic markers: waist-to-height ratio (WHR), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), for predicting MAFLD, were evaluated. Analyses stratified by MAFLD subtypes were performed.

RESULTS

Of 92,374 individuals, 19,392 (36.1%) had MAFLD. The diagnostic performances for MAFLD prediction, measured as c-statistics, for FLI, HSI, LAP, WHR, BMI, and WC were 0.906, 0.892, 0.878, 0.844, 0.877, and 0.878, respectively. Optimal cutoff values for diagnosing MAFLD for FLI, HSI, LAP, WHR, BMI, and WC were 20.3, 32.7, 20.0, 0.49, 22.9, and 82.1, respectively. Analyses stratified by MAFLD subtypes, based on BMI and metabolic/glycemic abnormalities, suggested that FLI and HSI had acceptable (c-statistics >0.700) diagnostic abilities throughout all the analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

All six markers were excellent predictors of MAFLD in diagnosing among the general population, with FLI and HSI particularly useful among all sub-populations.

Impact of QRS Duration on Non-ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (from a National Registry)

QRS duration (QRSd) is ill-defined and under-researched as a prognosticator in patients with non-ST-segment myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). We analyzed 240,866 adult (≥18 years) hospitalizations with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction using data from the United Kingdom Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project. Clinical characteristics and all-cause in-hospital mortality were analyzed according to QRSd, with 38,023 patients presenting with a QRSd >120 ms and 202,842 patients with a QRSd <120 ms. Patients with a QRSd >120 ms were more frequently older (median age of 79 years vs 71 years, p <0.001), and of white ethnicity (93% vs 91%, p <0.001). Patients with a QRSd <120 ms had higher frequency of use of aspirin (97% vs 95%, p <0.001), P2Y12 inhibitor (93% vs 89%, p <0.001), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (82% vs 81%, p <0.001) and β blockers (83% vs 78%, p <0.001). Invasive management strategies were more likely to be used in patients with QRSd <120 ms including invasive coronary angiography (72% vs 54%, p <0.001), percutaneous coronary intervention (46% vs 33%, p <0.001) and coronary artery bypass graft surgery (8% vs 6%, p <0.001). In a propensity score matching analysis, there were no differences between the 2 groups in the adjusted rates of in-hospital all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.01) or major adverse cardiac events (odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.02) during the index admission. In conclusion, prolonged QRSd >120 ms in the context of non-ST-segment myocardial infarction is not associated with worse in-hospital mortality or the outcomes of major adverse cardiac events.

Sex-specific evaluation and redevelopment of the GRACE score in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes in populations from the UK and Switzerland: a multinational analysis with external cohort validation

BACKGROUND

The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) 2.0 score was developed and validated in predominantly male patient populations. We aimed to assess its sex-specific performance in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) and to develop an improved score (GRACE 3.0) that accounts for sex differences in disease characteristics.

METHODS

We evaluated the GRACE 2.0 score in 420 781 consecutive patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary nationwide cohorts from the UK and Switzerland. Machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality were informed by the GRACE variables and developed in sex-disaggregated data from 386 591 patients from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (split into a training cohort of 309 083 [80·0%] patients and a validation cohort of 77 508 [20·0%] patients). External validation of the GRACE 3.0 score was done in 20 727 patients from Switzerland.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2005, and Aug 27, 2020, 400 054 patients with NSTE-ACS in the UK and 20 727 patients with NSTE-ACS in Switzerland were included in the study. Discrimination of in-hospital death by the GRACE 2.0 score was good in male patients (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0·86, 95% CI 0·86-0·86) and notably lower in female patients (0·82, 95% CI 0·81-0·82; p<0·0001). The GRACE 2.0 score underestimated in-hospital mortality risk in female patients, favouring their incorrect stratification to the low-to-intermediate risk group, for which the score does not indicate early invasive treatment. Accounting for sex differences, GRACE 3.0 showed superior discrimination and good calibration with an AUC of 0·91 (95% CI 0·89-0·92) in male patients and 0·87 (95% CI 0·84-0·89) in female patients in an external cohort validation. GRACE 3·0 led to a clinically relevant reclassification of female patients to the high-risk group.

INTERPRETATION

The GRACE 2.0 score has limited discriminatory performance and underestimates in-hospital mortality in female patients with NSTE-ACS. The GRACE 3.0 score performs better in men and women and reduces sex inequalities in risk stratification.

FUNDING

Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, Lindenhof Foundation, Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, and Theodor-Ida-Herzog-Egli Foundation.