Average semivariance directly yields accurate estimates of the genomic variance in complex trait analyses

Genomic prediction of synthetic hexaploid wheat upon tetraploid durum and diploid Aegilops parental pools

Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a globally important food crop, which was domesticated about 8-10,000 years ago. Bread wheat is an allopolyploid, and it evolved from two hybridization events of three species. To widen the genetic base in breeding, bread wheat has been re-synthesized by crossing durum wheat (Triticum turgidum ssp. durum) and goat grass (Aegilops tauschii Coss), leading to so-called synthetic hexaploid wheat (SHW). We applied the quantitative genetics tools of "hybrid prediction"-originally developed for the prediction of wheat hybrids generated from different heterotic groups - to a situation of allopolyploidization. Our use-case predicts the phenotypes of SHW for three quantitatively inherited global wheat diseases, namely tan spot (TS), septoria nodorum blotch (SNB), and spot blotch (SB). Our results revealed prediction abilities comparable to studies in 'traditional' elite or hybrid wheat. Prediction abilities were highest using a marker model and performing random cross-validation, predicting the performance of untested SHW (0.483 for SB to 0.730 for TS). When testing parents not necessarily used in SHW, combination prediction abilities were slightly lower (0.378 for SB to 0.718 for TS), yet still promising. Despite the limited phenotypic data, our results provide a general example for predictive models targeting an allopolyploidization event and a method that can guide the use of genetic resources available in gene banks.

Quantitative genomics-enabled selection for simultaneous improvement of lint yield and seed traits in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)

KEY MESSAGE

A Bayesian linkage disequilibrium-based multiple-locus mixed model identified QTLs for fibre, seed and oil traits and predicted breeding worthiness of test lines, enabling their simultaneous improvement in cotton. Improving cotton seed and oil yields has become increasingly important while continuing to breed for higher lint yield. In this study, a novel Bayesian linkage disequilibrium-based multiple-locus mixed model was developed for QTL identification and genomic prediction (GP). A multi-parent population consisting of 256 recombinant inbred lines, derived from four elite cultivars with distinct combinations of traits, was used in the analysis of QTLs for lint percentage, seed index, lint index and seed oil content and their interrelations. All four traits were moderately heritable and correlated but with no large influence of genotype × environment interactions across multiple seasons. Seven to ten major QTLs were identified for each trait with many being adjacent or overlapping for different trait pairs. A fivefold cross-validation of the model indicated prediction accuracies of 0.46-0.62. GP results based on any two-season phenotypes were strongly correlated with phenotypic means of a pooled analysis of three-season experiments (r = 0.83-0.92). When used for selection of improvement in lint, seed and oil yields, GP captured 40-100% of individuals with comparable lint yields of those selected based on the three-season phenotypic results. Thus, this quantitative genomics-enabled approach can not only decipher the genomic variation underlying lint, seed and seed oil traits and their interrelations, but can provide predictions for their simultaneous improvement. We discuss future breeding strategies in cotton that will enhance the entire value of the crop, not just its fibre.

A medium-density genotyping platform for cultivated strawberry using DArTag technology

Genomic prediction in breeding populations containing hundreds to thousands of parents and seedlings is prohibitively expensive with current high-density genetic marker platforms designed for strawberry. We developed mid-density panels of molecular inversion probes (MIPs) to be deployed with the "DArTag" marker platform to provide a low-cost, high-throughput genotyping solution for strawberry genomic prediction. In total, 7742 target single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) regions were used to generate MIP assays that were tested with a screening panel of 376 octoploid Fragaria accessions. We evaluated the performance of DArTag assays based on genotype segregation, amplicon coverage, and their ability to produce subgenome-specific amplicon alignments to the FaRR1 assembly and subsequent alignment-based variant calls with strong concordance to DArT's alignment-free, count-based genotype reports. We used a combination of marker performance metrics and physical distribution in the FaRR1 assembly to select 3K and 5K production panels for genotyping of large strawberry populations. We show that the 3K and 5K DArTag panels are able to target and amplify homologous alleles within subgenomic sequences with low-amplification bias between reference and alternate alleles, supporting accurate genotype calling while producing marker genotypes that can be treated as functionally diploid for quantitative genetic analysis. The 3K and 5K target SNPs show high levels of polymorphism in diverse F. × ananassa germplasm and UC Davis cultivars, with mean pairwise diversity (π) estimates of 0.40 and 0.32 and mean heterozygous genotype frequencies of 0.35 and 0.33, respectively.

An adjusted coefficient of determination (R2 ) for generalized linear mixed models in one go

The coefficient of determination (R2 ) is a common measure of goodness of fit for linear models. Various proposals have been made for extension of this measure to generalized linear and mixed models. When the model has random effects or correlated residual effects, the observed responses are correlated. This paper proposes a new coefficient of determination for this setting that accounts for any such correlation. A key advantage of the proposed method is that it only requires the fit of the model under consideration, with no need to also fit a null model. Also, the approach entails a bias correction in the estimator assessing the variance explained by fixed effects. Three examples are used to illustrate new measure. A simulation shows that the proposed estimator of the new coefficient of determination has only minimal bias.

Complex traits and candidate genes: estimation of genetic variance components across multiple genetic architectures

Large-effect loci-those statistically significant loci discovered by genome-wide association studies or linkage mapping-associated with key traits segregate amidst a background of minor, often undetectable, genetic effects in wild and domesticated plants and animals. Accurately attributing mean differences and variance explained to the correct components in the linear mixed model analysis is vital for selecting superior progeny and parents in plant and animal breeding, gene therapy, and medical genetics in humans. Marker-assisted prediction and its successor, genomic prediction, have many advantages for selecting superior individuals and understanding disease risk. However, these two approaches are less often integrated to study complex traits with different genetic architectures. This simulation study demonstrates that the average semivariance can be applied to models incorporating Mendelian, oligogenic, and polygenic terms simultaneously and yields accurate estimates of the variance explained for all relevant variables. Our previous research focused on large-effect loci and polygenic variance separately. This work aims to synthesize and expand the average semivariance framework to various genetic architectures and the corresponding mixed models. This framework independently accounts for the effects of large-effect loci and the polygenic genetic background and is universally applicable to genetics studies in humans, plants, animals, and microbes.

Which mouse multiparental population is right for your study? The Collaborative Cross inbred strains, their F1 hybrids, or the Diversity Outbred population

Multiparental populations (MPPs) encompass greater genetic diversity than traditional experimental crosses of two inbred strains, enabling broader surveys of genetic variation underlying complex traits. Two such mouse MPPs are the Collaborative Cross (CC) inbred panel and the Diversity Outbred (DO) population, which are descended from the same eight inbred strains. Additionally, the F1 intercrosses of CC strains (CC-RIX) have been used and enable study designs with replicate outbred mice. Genetic analyses commonly used by researchers to investigate complex traits in these populations include characterizing how heritable a trait is, i.e. its heritability, and mapping its underlying genetic loci, i.e. its quantitative trait loci (QTLs). Here we evaluate the relative merits of these populations for these tasks through simulation, as well as provide recommendations for performing the quantitative genetic analyses. We find that sample populations that include replicate animals, as possible with the CC and CC-RIX, provide more efficient and precise estimates of heritability. We report QTL mapping power curves for the CC, CC-RIX, and DO across a range of QTL effect sizes and polygenic backgrounds for samples of 174 and 500 mice. The utility of replicate animals in the CC and CC-RIX for mapping QTLs rapidly decreased as traits became more polygenic. Only large sample populations of 500 DO mice were well-powered to detect smaller effect loci (7.5-10%) for highly complex traits (80% polygenic background). All results were generated with our R package musppr, which we developed to simulate data from these MPPs and evaluate genetic analyses from user-provided genotypes.