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Fisher A, Fisher L, Srikusalanukul W. Prediction of Osteoporotic Hip Fracture Outcome: Comparative Accuracy of 27 Immune-Inflammatory-Metabolic Markers and Related Conceptual Issues. J Clin Med 2024; 13:3969. [PMID: 38999533 PMCID: PMC11242639 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13133969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2024] [Revised: 06/26/2024] [Accepted: 07/03/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Objectives: This study, based on the concept of immuno-inflammatory-metabolic (IIM) dysregulation, investigated and compared the prognostic impact of 27 indices at admission for prediction of postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) and/or hospital death in hip fracture (HF) patients. Methods: In consecutive HF patient (n = 1273, mean age 82.9 ± 8.7 years, 73.5% females) demographics, medical history, laboratory parameters, and outcomes were recorded prospectively. Multiple logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analyses (the area under the curve, AUC) were used to establish the predictive role for each biomarker. Results: Among 27 IIM biomarkers, 10 indices were significantly associated with development of PMI and 16 were indicative of a fatal outcome; in the subset of patients aged >80 years with ischaemic heart disease (IHD, the highest risk group: 90.2% of all deaths), the corresponding figures were 26 and 20. In the latter group, the five strongest preoperative predictors for PMI were anaemia (AUC 0.7879), monocyte/eosinophil ratio > 13.0 (AUC 0.7814), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio > 7.5 (AUC 0.7784), eosinophil count < 1.1 × 109/L (AUC 0.7780), and neutrophil/albumin × 10 > 2.4 (AUC 0.7732); additionally, sensitivity was 83.1-75.4% and specificity was 82.1-75.0%. The highest predictors of in-hospital death were platelet/lymphocyte ratio > 280.0 (AUC 0.8390), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio < 1.1 (AUC 0.8375), albumin < 33 g/L (AUC 0.7889), red cell distribution width > 14.5% (AUC 0.7739), and anaemia (AUC 0.7604), sensitivity 88.2% and above, and specificity 85.1-79.3%. Internal validation confirmed the predictive value of the models. Conclusions: Comparison of 27 IIM indices in HF patients identified several simple, widely available, and inexpensive parameters highly predictive for PMI and/or in-hospital death. The applicability of IIM biomarkers to diagnose and predict risks for chronic diseases, including OP/OF, in the preclinical stages is discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Fisher
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
- Medical School, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia
| | - Leon Fisher
- Frankston Hospital, Peninsula Health, Melbourne 3199, Australia
| | - Wichat Srikusalanukul
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, ACT Health, Canberra 2605, Australia
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Wang Y, Leng S, Jin Y, Tang X, Zhu X, An L. Successful ageing is associated with falls among older adults in India: a large population based across-sectional study based on LASI. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:1682. [PMID: 38914970 PMCID: PMC11197243 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-19181-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2023] [Accepted: 06/18/2024] [Indexed: 06/26/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Falls are common in the elderly and can lead to adverse consequences, like injuries, hospitalization, disability even mortality. Successful ageing emerged in sight to assess physical, psychological and social status of older adults. This study is conducted to explore the association between them in a large Indian community-dwelling population. METHODS Data were based on the wave 1 survey of the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). People aged 60 and above with complete information were included. The elderly met five standards including absence of chronic diseases, freedom from disability, high cognitive ability, free from depressive symptoms and active social engagement, were classified into successful agers. The assessment of falls, fall-related injuries and multiple falls depended on interview. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to find the associations between falls, fall-injury, multiple falls and successful ageing after adjusting both socio-demographic and biological covariates. The log-likelihood ratio test was calculated interactions in subgroups. RESULTS 31,345 participants in LASI were finally included in our study. Of them, 20.25% reported fall, and 25% were classified into successful agers. After full adjustment, successful ageing was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.70; 95%CI 0.65-0.76) and multiple falls (OR 0.70; 95%CI 0.63-0.78). And the association did not show the significance in older adults with fall-related injuries (OR 0.86; 95%CI 0.72-1.04). CONCLUSIONS Successful ageing was negatively associated with falls and multiple falls, but not fall-related injuries in older people in India. Future studies are demanded to explore the causal relationship and to reveal the underlying mechanism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujing Wang
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Siqi Leng
- Sleep Medicine Center, Mental Health Center, Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Dian Xin Nan Jie 28#, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Yuming Jin
- Department of Urology, Institute of Urology and National clinical Research Center for Geriatrics, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiangdong Tang
- Sleep Medicine Center, Mental Health Center, Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Dian Xin Nan Jie 28#, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Xian Zhu
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
| | - Lina An
- Department of Geriatrics, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
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O'Halloran AM, Cremers J, Vrangbæk K, Roe L, Bourke R, Mortensen LH, Westendorp RGJ, Kenny RA. Cardiovascular disease and the risk of incident falls and mortality among adults aged ≥ 65 years presenting to the emergency department: a cohort study from national registry data in Denmark. BMC Geriatr 2024; 24:93. [PMID: 38267873 PMCID: PMC10809657 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-023-04618-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 12/17/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Falls cause 58% of injury-related Emergency Department (ED) attendances. Previous research has highlighted the potential role of cardiovascular risk factors for falls. This study investigated the impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality. METHODS A matched cohort study design was employed using national registry data from 82,292 adults (33% male) aged ≥ 65 years living in Denmark who attended the ED in 2013. We compared age and gender matched ED attendees presenting with a fall versus another reason. The cohort was followed for three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality. The impact of falls-related CVDs was also examined. RESULTS Three-year incident falls was twofold higher among age and gender matched ED attendees aged ≥ 65 years presenting with a fall versus another reason at baseline. A presentation of falls with hip fracture had the highest percentage of incident falls in the 65-74 age group (22%) and the highest percentage mortality in all age groups (27-62%). CVD was not a significant factor in presenting with a fall at the ED, nor did it contribute significantly to the prediction of three-year incident falls. CVD was strongly associated with mortality risk among the ED fall group (RR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.67-1.97) and showed interactions with both age and fall history. CONCLUSION In this large study of adults aged ≥ 65 years attending the ED utilising data from national administrative registers in Denmark, we confirm that older adults attending the ED with a fall, including those with hip fracture, were at greatest risk for future falls. While CVD did not predict incident falls, it increased the risk of mortality in the three-year follow up with advancing age. This may be informative for the provision of care pathways for older adults attending the ED due to a fall.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aisling M O'Halloran
- Medical Gerontology, School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Trinity Central, 152-160 Pearse Street, Dublin, Ireland.
| | - Jolien Cremers
- Data Science Lab, Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Center for Healthy Aging, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Karsten Vrangbæk
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Center for Healthy Aging, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Centre for Health Economics and Policy, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Lorna Roe
- Medical Gerontology, School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Trinity Central, 152-160 Pearse Street, Dublin, Ireland
- Global Brain Health Institute (GBHI), Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
- Centre for Health Policy and Management, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Robert Bourke
- Medical Gerontology, School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Trinity Central, 152-160 Pearse Street, Dublin, Ireland
- Mercer's Institute for Successful Ageing, St. James's Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Laust H Mortensen
- Data Science Lab, Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Center for Healthy Aging, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Rudi G J Westendorp
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Center for Healthy Aging, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Rose Anne Kenny
- Medical Gerontology, School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Trinity Central, 152-160 Pearse Street, Dublin, Ireland
- Mercer's Institute for Successful Ageing, St. James's Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
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