Multisystem Trajectories Over the Adult Life Course and Relations to Cardiovascular Disease and Death

Clusters of longitudinal risk profile trajectories are associated with cardiometabolic diseases: Results from the population-based KORA cohort

BACKGROUND

Multiple risk factors contribute jointly to the development and progression of cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, joint longitudinal trajectories of multiple risk factors might represent different degrees of cardiometabolic risk.

METHODS

We analyzed population-based data comprising three examinations (Exam 1: 1999-2001, Exam 2: 2006-2008, Exam 3: 2013-2014) of 976 male and 1004 female participants of the KORA cohort (Southern Germany). Participants were followed up for cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke, or a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, until 2016. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering identified sex-specific trajectory clusters based on nine cardiometabolic risk factors (age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body-mass-index, waist circumference, Hemoglobin-A1c, total cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Associations between clusters and cardiometabolic events were assessed by logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We identified three trajectory clusters for men and women, respectively. Trajectory clusters reflected a distinct distribution of cardiometabolic risk burden and were associated with prevalent cardiometabolic disease at Exam 3 (men: odds ratio (OR)ClusterII = 2.0, 95% confidence interval: (0.9-4.5); ORClusterIII = 10.5 (4.8-22.9); women: ORClusterII = 1.7 (0.6-4.7); ORClusterIII = 5.8 (2.6-12.9)). Trajectory clusters were furthermore associated with incident cardiometabolic cases after Exam 3 (men: ORClusterII = 3.5 (1.1-15.6); ORClusterIII = 7.5 (2.4-32.7); women: ORClusterII = 5.0 (1.1-34.1); ORClusterIII = 8.0 (2.2-51.7)). Associations remained significant after adjusting for a single time point cardiovascular risk score (Framingham).

CONCLUSIONS

On a population-based level, distinct longitudinal risk profiles over a 14-year time period are differentially associated with cardiometabolic events. Our results suggest that longitudinal data may provide additional information beyond single time-point measures. Their inclusion in cardiometabolic risk assessment might improve early identification of individuals at risk.

The value of earlier-in-life systolic and diastolic blood pressure for cardiovascular risk prediction

Blood pressure (BP) varies over a lifetime. This cardiovascular observation study (OS) compared the predictive value of earlier- and later-in-life blood pressure (BP) in 1,497 cardiovascular disease patients utilizing readings taken during a health survey (HS) and 15 years later from the same subjects at the baseline of this OS. Prediction of the cardiovascular risk during the OS follow-up (21 years) was significantly more effective if the earlier BP readings at HS were used instead of recent OS readings (NRI = 0.30, p < 0.001). For HS readings, each 10 mm Hg increase of systolic and diastolic BP was associated with a 17% and 20% higher risk, respectively. At OS, systolic BP lost significance and diastolic BP reversed its association. Noteworthy, different BP categorizations (European vs. US guidelines) yielded similar results. This study highlights the poor predictive power of BP readings in elderly cardiovascular disease patients but emphasizes the significant prognostic value of earlier-in-life BP.

Common electrocardiogram measures are not associated with telomere length

AIMS

Aging is accompanied by telomere shortening. Increased telomere shortening is considered a marker of premature aging. Cardiac aging results in the development of cardiac pathologies. Electrocardiogram (ECG) measures reflect cardiac excitation, conduction, and repolarization. ECG measures also prolong with aging and are associated with cardiac pathologies including atrial fibrillation. As premature prolongation of ECG measures is observed, we hypothesized that such prolongation may be associated with telomere length.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied the large, community-based KORA F4 Study. Of 3,080 participants enrolled between 2006 and 2007 with detailed information on demographic, anthropometric, clinical, and ECG characteristics, 2,575 presented with available data on leukocyte telomere length. Telomere length was determined by real-time quantitative PCR and expressed relative to a single copy gene. We fitted multivariable adjusted linear regression models to associate the ECG measures RR-interval, PR-interval, QRS-duration, and heart rate corrected QTc with telomere length. In our cohort, the mean age was 54.9±12.9 years and 46.6% were men. Increased age was associated with shorter telomere length (p<0.01), and men had shorter telomere length than women (p<0.05). In unadjusted models, heart rate (p=0.023), PR-interval (p<0.01), and QTc-interval (p<0.01) were significantly associated with shorter telomere length. However, no significant associations remained after accounting for age, sex, and covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

ECG measures are age-dependent, but not associated with shortened telomere length as a marker of biological aging. Further research is warranted to clarify if shortened telomeres are associated with clinical cardiac pathologies including atrial fibrillation.

Multi-system trajectories and the incidence of heart failure in the Framingham Offspring Study

BACKGROUND

Heart failure is a multi-system disease, with non-cardiac systems playing a key role in disease pathogenesis.

OBJECTIVE

Investigate whether longitudinal multi-system trajectories incrementally predict heart failure risk compared to single-occasion traits.

METHODS

We evaluated 3,412 participants from the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort, free of heart failure, who attended examination cycle 5 and at least one examination between 1995-2008 (mean age 67 years, 54% women). We related trajectories for the following organ systems and metabolic functions to heart failure risk using Cox regression: kidney (estimated glomerular filtration rate), lung (forced vital capacity and the ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity), neuromotor (gait time), muscular (grip strength), cardiac (left ventricular mass index and heart rate), vascular function (pulse pressure), cholesterol (ratio of total/high-density lipoprotein), adiposity (body mass index), inflammation (C-reactive protein) and glucose homeostasis (hemoglobin A1c). Using traits selected via forward selection, we derived a trajectory risk score and related it to heart failure risk.

RESULTS

We observed 276 heart failure events during a median follow up of 10 years. Participants with the 'worst' multi-system trajectory profile had the highest heart failure risk. A one-unit increase in the trajectory risk score was associated with a 2.72-fold increase in heart failure risk (95% CI 2.21-3.34; p<0.001). The mean c-statistics for models including the trajectory risk score and single-occasion traits were 0.87 (95% CI 0.83-0.91) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Incorporating multi-system trajectories reflective of the aging process may add incremental information to heart failure risk assessment when compared to using single-occasion traits.

Predictive Validity of Motor Fitness and Flexibility Tests in Adults and Older Adults: A Systematic Review

Motor fitness and flexibility have been linked to several health issues. We aimed to investigate the predictive validity of motor fitness and flexibility tests in relation to health outcomes in adults and older adults. Web of Science and PubMed databases were screened for studies published from inception to November 2020. Two authors systematically searched, evaluated, and extracted data from identified original studies and systematic reviews/meta-analysis. Three levels of evidence were constructed: strong, moderate, and limited/inconclusive evidence. In total, 1182 studies were identified, and 70 studies and 6 systematic reviews/meta-analysis were summarized. Strong evidence indicated that (i) slower gait speed predicts falls and institutionalization/hospitalization in adults over 60 years old, cognitive decline/impairment over 55 years old, mobility disability over 50 years old, disability in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) over 54 years old, cardiovascular disease risk over 45 years old, and all-cause mortality over 35 years old; (ii) impaired balance predicts falls and disability in IADL/mobility disability in adults over 40 years old and all-cause mortality over 53 years old; (iii) worse timed up&go test (TUG) predicts falls and fear of falling over 40 years old. Evidence supports that slower gait speed, impaired balance, and worse TUG performance are significantly associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes in adults.

Modelling of longitudinal data to predict cardiovascular disease risk: a methodological review

OBJECTIVE

The identification of methodology for modelling cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using longitudinal data and risk factor trajectories.

METHODS

We screened MEDLINE-Ovid from inception until 3 June 2020. MeSH and text search terms covered three areas: data type, modelling type and disease area including search terms such as "longitudinal", "trajector*" and "cardiovasc*" respectively. Studies were filtered to meet the following inclusion criteria: longitudinal individual patient data in adult patients with ≥3 time-points and a CVD or mortality outcome. Studies were screened and analyzed by one author. Any queries were discussed with the other authors. Comparisons were made between the methods identified looking at assumptions, flexibility and software availability.

RESULTS

From the initial 2601 studies returned by the searches 80 studies were included. Four statistical approaches were identified for modelling the longitudinal data: 3 (4%) studies compared time points with simple statistical tests, 40 (50%) used single-stage approaches, such as including single time points or summary measures in survival models, 29 (36%) used two-stage approaches including an estimated longitudinal parameter in survival models, and 8 (10%) used joint models which modelled the longitudinal and survival data together. The proportion of CVD risk prediction models created using longitudinal data using two-stage and joint models increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Single stage models are still heavily utilized by many CVD risk prediction studies for modelling longitudinal data. Future studies should fully utilize available longitudinal data when analyzing CVD risk by employing two-stage and joint approaches which can often better utilize the available data.

Three-year trajectories of metabolic risk factors predict subsequent long-term mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIM

This study aims to evaluate the associations between 3-year trajectories of metabolic risk factors and subsequent mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 6400 persons aged ≥ 30 years with type 2 diabetes and ≥ 3 years of follow-up period were included. The cluster analysis determined the patterns of 3-year trajectories, and Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the associations between patterns and mortality.

RESULTS

Three trajectory subgroups of metabolic risk factors, namely, cluster 1, normal; cluster 2, high-stable or reducing with high level at baseline; and cluster 3, fluctuation: elevated and decreasing, were generated. The clusters 2 and 3 of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), HbA1c, and triglyceride (TG) trajectories were associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality compared with cluster 1 (hazard ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.06-1.51 and 1.45, 1.19-1.78 for BMI; 1.41, 1.22-1.62 and 1.81, 1.38-2.38 for FPG; 1.42, 1.23-1.64 and 1.47, 1.23-1.75 for HbA1c; 1.34, 1.10-1.63 and 2.40, 1.30-4.37 for TG, respectively). For the systolic blood pressure trajectory, only cluster 3 was associated with an increased mortality risk relative to cluster 1 (1.76, 1.13-2.77).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term metabolic risk factor trajectories may be associated with subsequent mortality.

Criterion-Related Validity of Field-Based Fitness Tests in Adults: A Systematic Review

We comprehensively assessed the criterion-related validity of existing field-based fitness tests used to indicate adult health (19–64 years, with no known pathologies). The medical electronic databases MEDLINE (via PubMed) and Web of Science (all databases) were screened for studies published up to July 2020. Each original study’s methodological quality was classified as high, low and very low, according to the number of participants, the description of the study population, statistical analysis and systematic reviews which were appraised via the AMSTAR rating scale. Three evidence levels were constructed (strong, moderate and limited evidence) according to the number of studies and the consistency of the findings. We identified 101 original studies (50 of high quality) and five systematic reviews examining the criterion-related validity of field-based fitness tests in adults. Strong evidence indicated that the 20 m shuttle run, 1.5-mile, 12 min run/walk, YMCA step, 2 km walk and 6 min walk test are valid for estimating cardiorespiratory fitness; the handgrip strength test is valid for assessing hand maximal isometric strength; and the Biering–Sørensen test to evaluate the endurance strength of hip and back muscles; however, the sit-and reach test, and its different versions, and the toe-to-touch test are not valid for assessing hamstring and lower back flexibility. We found moderate evidence supporting that the 20 m square shuttle run test is a valid test for estimating cardiorespiratory fitness. Other field-based fitness tests presented limited evidence, mainly due to few studies. We developed an evidence-based proposal of the most valid field-based fitness tests in healthy adults aged 19–64 years old.

Associations between Cumulative Biological Risk and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Middle- and Older-Aged South Asian Immigrants in the United States

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to investigate associations between cumulative biological risk and subclinical atherosclerosis in South Asian immigrants.

METHODS

Data from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study, including 858 participants at baseline (mean age = 56 [standard deviation = 9] years, 46% women). A cumulative biological risk score was derived using nine biomarkers across cardiovascular, immune, and metabolic systems with a possible score range of 0-9. Common and internal carotid artery intima media thickness (CIMT) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) were used as indicators of subclinical atherosclerosis.

RESULTS

Higher cumulative biological risk score was significantly associated with higher common and internal CIMT and higher odds of CAC at baseline. The odds of new CAC after 5 years of follow-up were 31% higher per 1-point increase in cumulative biological risk score, and the higher cumulative biological risk score was also associated with CAC progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Among South Asian immigrants, cumulative biological risk was directly associated with subclinical atherosclerosis and its progression.