Predicting Functional Decline and Recovery for Residents in Veterans Affairs Nursing Homes

Exploring trajectories of functional decline and recovery among older adults: a data-driven approach

Independently performing activities of daily living (ADLs) is vital for maintaining one's quality of life. Losing this ability can significantly impact an individual's overall health status, including their mental health and social well-being. Aging is an important factor contributing to the loss of ADL abilities, and our study focuses on investigating the trajectories of functional decline and recovery in older adults. Employing trajectory analytics methodologies, this research delves into the intricate dynamics of ADL pathways, unveiling their complexity, diversity, and inherent characteristics. The study leverages a substantial dataset encompassing ADL assessments of nursing home residents with diverse disability profiles in the United States. The investigation begins by transforming these assessments into sequences of disability combinations, followed by applying various statistical measures, indicators, and visual analytics. Valuable insights are gained into the typical disability states, transitions, and patterns over time. The results also indicate that while predicting the progression of ADL disabilities presents manageable challenges, the duration of these states proves more complicated. Our findings hold significant potential for improving healthcare decision-making by enabling clinicians to anticipate possible patterns, develop targeted and effective interventions that support older patients in preserving their independence, and enhance overall care quality.

Admission Cognition and Function Predict Change in Physical Function Following Skilled Nursing Rehabilitation

OBJECTIVES

Many older adults are discharged from skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) at functional levels below those needed for safe, independent home and community mobility. There is limited evidence explaining this insufficient recovery. The purpose of this secondary analysis was to determine predictors of physical function change following SNF rehabilitation.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Across 4 SNFs, data were collected from 698 adults admitted for physical rehabilitation following an acute hospitalization.

METHODS

Physical function recovery was evaluated as change from admission to discharge in Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) scores (N = 698) and gait speed (n = 444). Demographic and clinical characteristics collected at admission served as potential predictors of physical function change. Following imputation, a standardized model selection estimator was calculated for predictors per physical function outcome. Predictor estimates and 95% CIs were calculated for each outcome model.

RESULTS

Higher cognitive scores [standardized β (βSTD) = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.0004, 0.20] and higher activities of daily living (ADL) independence at admission (βSTD = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.34) predicted greater SPPB change; higher SPPB scores at admission (βSTD = -0.26, 95% CI: -0.35, -0.14) predicted smaller SPPB change. Higher ADL independence at admission (βSTD = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.37) predicted greater gait speed change; faster gait speed at admission (βSTD = -0.30, 95% CI: -0.44, -0.15) predicted smaller gait speed change.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Admission cognition, ADL independence, and physical function predicted physical function change following post-hospitalization rehabilitation. Inverse findings for admission physical function and ADL independence predictors suggest independence with ADL is not necessarily aligned with mobility-related function. Findings highlight that functional recovery is multifactorial and requires comprehensive assessment throughout SNF rehabilitation.

Feasibility of Extracting Meaningful Patient Centered Outcomes From the Electronic Health Record Following Critical Illness in the Elderly

Background

Meaningful patient centered outcomes of critical illness such as functional status, cognition and mental health are studied using validated measurement tools that may often be impractical outside the research setting. The Electronic health record (EHR) contains a plethora of information pertaining to these domains. We sought to determine how feasible and reliable it is to assess meaningful patient centered outcomes from the EHR.

Methods

Two independent investigators reviewed EHR of a random sample of ICU patients looking at documented assessments of trajectory of functional status, cognition, and mental health. Cohen's kappa was used to measure agreement between 2 reviewers. Post ICU health in these domains 12 month after admission was compared to pre- ICU health in the 12 months prior to assess qualitatively whether a patient's condition was “better,” “unchanged” or “worse.” Days alive and out of hospital/health care facility was a secondary outcome.

Results

Thirty six of the 41 randomly selected patients (88%) survived critical illness. EHR contained sufficient information to determine the difference in health status before and after critical illness in most survivors (86%). Decline in functional status (36%), cognition (11%), and mental health (11%) following ICU admission was observed compared to premorbid baseline. Agreement between reviewers was excellent (kappa ranging from 0.966 to 1). Eighteen patients (44%) remained home after discharge from hospital and rehabilitation during the 12- month follow up.

Conclusion

We demonstrated the feasibility and reliability of assessing the trajectory of changes in functional status, cognition, and selected mental health outcomes from EHR of critically ill patients. If validated in a larger, representative sample, these outcomes could be used alongside survival in quality improvement studies and pragmatic clinical trials.

Designing an Elderly Hospital Admission Risk Prediction Model in Iran's Hospitals

Background:

The identification of elderly at risk of new functional disabilities in activities of daily living at admission to the hospital may facilitate referral for purposive interventions to prevent decline and institutionalization. This study was aimed at designing a risk prediction model for identifying the elderly at risk of admission in Iran's hospitals.

Materials and Methods:

This is a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted in 2017. In order to formulate and validate a prediction model, the study was done in two development and validation cohort study. Functional decline was defined as a decline of at least one point on the Katz ADL index at follow-up compared with preadmission status.

Results:

In development cohort, the mean age was 71 years including 54% of men and 46% women, 22% of men and 17% of women experienced functional decline after 3 months. In the validation cohort, the mean age was 70 years, including 49% of men and 51% women, 19% of men and 15% of women, functional decline after 3 months was observed.

Conclusion:

On the basis of the findings, aging at risk of hospital admission can be identified by easy designed model with four questions: (1) Is the patient's age more than 85 years? (2) Does the patient's mini mental status <22? (3) Does the patient need help for using general transporting? (4) Has the patient lost weight <5% over the past 6 months and body mass index <18.5? And also geriatrics experts can use the designed model as a predictive tool in order to improve the quality level of healthcare services to elderly as a vulnerable and high risk group. The important point of model is easy to use even for nonspecialists.

Computational Barthel Index: an automated tool for assessing and predicting activities of daily living among nursing home patients

Background

Assessment of functional ability, including activities of daily living (ADLs), is a manual process completed by skilled health professionals. In the presented research, an automated decision support tool, the Computational Barthel Index Tool (CBIT), was constructed that can automatically assess and predict probabilities of current and future ADLs based on patients’ medical history.

Methods

The data used to construct the tool include the demographic information, inpatient and outpatient diagnosis codes, and reported disabilities of 181,213 residents of the Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) Community Living Centers. Supervised machine learning methods were applied to construct the CBIT. Temporal information about times from the first and the most recent occurrence of diagnoses was encoded. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to tune hyperparameters, and independent test sets were used to evaluate models using AUC, accuracy, recall and precision. Random forest achieved the best model quality. Models were calibrated using isotonic regression.

Results

The unabridged version of CBIT uses 578 patient characteristics and achieved average AUC of 0.94 (0.93–0.95), accuracy of 0.90 (0.89–0.91), precision of 0.91 (0.89–0.92), and recall of 0.90 (0.84–0.95) when re-evaluating patients. CBIT is also capable of predicting ADLs up to one year ahead, with accuracy decreasing over time, giving average AUC of 0.77 (0.73–0.79), accuracy of 0.73 (0.69–0.80), precision of 0.74 (0.66–0.81), and recall of 0.69 (0.34–0.96). A simplified version of CBIT with 50 top patient characteristics reached performance that does not significantly differ from full CBIT.

Conclusion

Discharge planners, disability application reviewers and clinicians evaluating comparative effectiveness of treatments can use CBIT to assess and predict information on functional status of patients.

Application of High-Intensity Functional Resistance Training in a Skilled Nursing Facility: An Implementation Study

OBJECTIVE

Rehabilitation in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) is under scrutiny to deliver high-quality care and superior outcomes in less time. High-intensity resistance training demonstrates functional improvements in community-dwelling and long-term care populations but has not been generalized to the SNF population. The purpose of this study was to evaluate implementation issues including safety and feasibility and to provide preliminary information on effectiveness of rehabilitation focused on high-intensity functional resistance training in an SNF.

METHODS

The implementation study design consisted of 2 nonrandomized independent groups (usual care and high intensity) that were staged within a single SNF. The i-STRONGER program (IntenSive Therapeutic Rehabilitation for Older Skilled NursinG HomE Residents) integrates principles of physiologic tissue overload into rehabilitation. Physical therapists administered the Short Physical Performance Battery and gait speed at evaluation and discharge. Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance was used to evaluate the implementation process. An observational checklist and documentation audits were used to assess treatment fidelity. Regression analyses evaluated the response of functional change by group.

RESULTS

No treatment-specific adverse events were reported. Treatment fidelity was high at >99%, whereas documentation varied from 21% to 50%. Patient satisfaction was greater in i-STRONGER, and patient refusals to participate in therapy sessions trended downward in i-STRONGER. Patients in i-STRONGER exhibited a 0.13 m/s greater change in gait speed than in the usual care group. Although not significant, i-STRONGER resulted in a 0.64-point greater change in the Short Physical Performance Battery than usual care, and average SNF length of stay was 3.5 days shorter for i-STRONGER patients.

CONCLUSION

The findings from this study indicate that implementation of a high-intensity resistance training framework in SNFs is safe and feasible. Furthermore, results support a signal effectiveness of improving function and satisfaction, although the heterogeneity of the population necessitates a larger implementation study to confirm.

IMPACT STATEMENT

This pragmatic study demonstrates that high-intensity resistance training in medically complex older adults is safe and favorable in SNFs. This work supports the need to fundamentally change the intensity of rehabilitation provided to this population to promote greater value within post-acute care. Furthermore, this study supports the application of implementation science to rehabilitation for rapid and effective translation of evidence into practice.

Predictors of Functional Change in a Skilled Nursing Facility Population

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Inability to obtain sufficient gains in function during a skilled nursing facility (SNF) stay impacts patients' functional trajectories and susceptibility to adverse events. The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of functional change in patients temporarily residing in an SNF following hospitalization.

METHODS

One hundred forty patients admitted to a single SNF from the hospital who had both evaluation and discharge measures of physical function documented were included. Data from the Minimum Data Set 3.0 and electronic medical record were extracted to record clinical and demographic characteristics. The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) was administered by rehabilitation therapists at evaluation and discharge. The SPPB consists of balance tests, gait speed, and a timed 5-time sit-to-stand test.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) Screening Tool for Depression was the only significant predictor of change in gait speed over an SNF stay. Eighty-seven percent of patients achieved a clinically meaningful change in the SPPB of 1 point or greater from evaluation to discharge, with 78% demonstrating a clinically meaningful change of 0.1 m/s or greater on gait speed. However, 69% of patients demonstrated SPPB scores of 6 points or less and 57% ambulated less than 0.65 m/s at the time of discharge from the SNF, which indicates severe disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor physical function following an SNF stay places older adult at significant risk for adverse events including rehospitalization, future disability, and institutionalization. Understanding the predictors of functional change from evaluation to discharge may direct efforts toward developing innovative and effective interventions to improve function trajectories for older adults following an acute hospitalization.

Resilience in Clinical Care: Getting a Grip on the Recovery Potential of Older Adults

Background

Geriatricians are often confronted with unexpected health outcomes in older adults with complex multimorbidity. Aging researchers have recently called for a focus on physical resilience as a new approach to explaining such outcomes. Physical resilience, defined as the ability to resist functional decline or recover health following a stressor, is an emerging construct.

Methods

Based on an outline of the state‐of‐the‐art in research on the measurement of physical resilience, this article describes what tests to predict resilience can already be used in clinical practice and which innovations are to be expected soon.

Results

An older adult's recovery potential is currently predicted by static tests of physiological reserves. Although geriatric medicine typically adopts a multidisciplinary view of the patient and implicitly performs resilience management to a certain extent, clinical management of older adults can benefit from explicitly applying the dynamical concept of resilience. Two crucial leads for advancing our capacity to measure and manage the resilience of individual patients are advocated: first, performing multiple repeated measurements around a stressor can provide insight about the patient's dynamic responses to stressors; and, second, linking psychological and physiological subsystems, as proposed by network studies on resilience, can provide insight into dynamic interactions involved in a resilient response.

Conclusion

A big challenge still lies ahead in translating the dynamical concept of resilience into clinical tools and guidelines. As a first step in bridging this gap, this article outlines what opportunities clinicians and researchers can already exploit to improve prediction, understanding, and management of resilience of older adults. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2650–2657, 2019

PD Assistance and Relationship to Co-Existing Geriatric Syndromes in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Therapy Patients

Background:Home dialysis therapies, including peritoneal dialysis (PD), are preferred treatment strategies, offering flexibility and improved wellbeing. However, patients with complex disease and comorbidity may require assistance with personal care and healthcare-related tasks. The study objective was to formally assess the type and frequency of PD assistance received by patients over 50, and the relationship to observed frailty, functional status, and cognitive ability at the time of PD therapy initiation.Methods:Using a multicentered, prospective observational study design, patients aged ≥ 50 years were recruited from those starting PD. Patients underwent formal evaluation using validated components of a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. The receipt and nature of assistance with PD tasks were assessed 1 month after dialysis start by questionnaire.Results:A total of 121 patients (age 69 ± 10 years, 67% male, 54% diabetic) were recruited. A total of 75 (62%) patients received assistance for a variety of tasks from friends or family (n = 41, 34%) or a paid caregiver (n = 34, 28%) 1 month after starting dialysis. At baseline, there was a high prevalence of functional dependency (79/120, 66%), frailty (71/110, 65%), and impaired cognition (68/115, 59%). Only 5% were fully independent, clinically robust, and scored within the normal range on cognitive testing. Factors associated with PD assistance included comorbidity (p < 0.03), cognitive impairment (p < 0.0001), and functional dependence (p < 0.02).Conclusion:Older patients initiating PD in the outpatient setting have high rates of frailty, functional dependence, and cognitive changes at the time they initiate dialysis. More research is required to better understand how those factors contribute to the use of PD assistance.

Application of Wearable Inertial Sensors and A New Test Battery for Distinguishing Retrospective Fallers from Non-fallers among Community-dwelling Older People

Considering the challenge of population ageing and the substantial health problem among the elderly population from falls, the purpose of this study was to verify whether it is possible to distinguish accurately between older fallers and non-fallers, based on data from wearable inertial sensors collected during a specially designed test battery. A comprehensive but practical test battery using 5 wearable inertial sensors for multifactorial fall risk assessment was designed. This was followed by an experimental study on 196 community-dwelling Korean older women, categorized as fallers (N1 = 82) and non-fallers (N2 = 114) based on prior history of falls. Six machine learning models (logistic regression, naïve bayes, decision tree, random forest, boosted tree and support vector machine) were proposed for faller classification. Results indicated that compared with non-fallers, fallers performed significantly worse on the test battery. In addition, the application of sensor data and support vector machine for faller classification achieved an overall accuracy of 89.4% with 92.7% sensitivity and 84.9% specificity. These findings suggest that wearable inertial sensor based systems show promise for elderly fall risk assessment, which could be implemented in clinical practice to identify "at-risk" individuals reliably to promote proactive fall prevention.

A Longitudinal Study Examining the Change in Functional Independence Over Time in Elderly Individuals With a Functioning Kidney Transplant

Background:

Functional disability is defined as the need for assistance with self-care tasks.

Objective:

To document changes in functional status over time among older prevalent renal transplant recipients.

Design:

Single center, prospective, follow-up study.

Setting:

Single center, tertiary care transplant center.

Patients:

Patients, with a functioning kidney transplant, aged 65 years or older who underwent assessment of functional status approximately 12 months previously.

Measurements:

Validated tools used included Barthel Index, the Lawton-Brody Scale of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, the Timed Up and Go test, the Veterans Specific Activity Questionnaire, the Mini-Cog, and dynamometer handgrip strength.

Methods:

Outpatient assessment by a trained observer.

Results:

Of the 82 patients previously studied, 64 (78%) patients participated in the follow-up study (mean age 70.5 ± 4.4 years, 58% male, 55% diabetic). Among those completing functional status measures, 32 (50%) had functional disability at baseline. Over the 1-year period, 11 (17%) of these patients experienced progressive functional decline, 6 (9%) exhibited no change, and 15 (23%) had functional recovery. Eleven patients (17%) initially independent, developed new-onset disability. One of the strongest predictors of progressive functional decline was having 1 or more falls in the previous year.

Limitations:

Assessments were performed only on 2 occasions separated by approximately 1 year.

Conclusions:

Fluctuations in disability states are common among older adults living with renal transplants. Episodes of functional disability may place individuals at higher risk of persistent and/or progressive disability.

Management Team Perceptions of Risks and Strategies for Preventing Falls Among Short-Stay Patients in Nursing Homes

We sought to understand strategies reported by members of the nursing home management team used to prevent falls in short-stay nursing home patients. Using Donabedian's model of structure, process, and outcomes, we interviewed 16 managers from 4 nursing homes in central North Carolina. Nursing home managers identified specific barriers to fall prevention among short-stay patients including rapid changes in functional and cognitive status, staff unfamiliarity with short-stay patient needs and patterns, and policies impacting care. Few interventions for reducing falls among short-stay patients were used at the structure level (eg, specialized units, workload ratio, and staffing consistency); however, many process-level interventions were used (eg, patient education on problem solving, self-care/mobility, and safety). We described several barriers to fall prevention among short-stay patients in nursing homes. From these descriptions, we propose three interventions that might reduce falls for short-stay patients and could be tested in future research: (1) clustering short-stay patients within a physical location to permit higher staff-patient ratios and enhanced surveillance, (2) population-based prevention interventions to supplement existing individually tailored prevention strategies (eg, toileting schedules, medication review for all), and (3) transitional care interventions that transmit key information from hospitals to nursing homes.

The subsequent course of disability in older persons discharged to a skilled nursing facility after an acute hospitalization

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between the type of acute hospitalization and subsequent course of disability in older persons discharged to a skilled nursing facility (SNF).

DESIGN

Longitudinal study of 754 community-living persons aged 70 or older.

PARTICIPANTS

The analytical sample included 365 participants who had one or more admissions to a SNF after an acute hospitalization (n=520 index admissions).

MEASUREMENTS

Information on hospitalizations, SNF admissions, and disability was ascertained over 15years. The primary and secondary outcomes were disability burden and recovery of pre-hospital function, respectively, assessed monthly over a 6-month period. Index admissions were classified into four mutually exclusive groups based on the type of hospitalization: elective major surgery, non-elective major surgery, critical illness, and other.

RESULTS

Disability worsened considerably after hospitalization for each of the four groups. Relative to elective major surgery, the disability burden over 6months was significantly greater for non-elective major surgery, critical illness, and other hospitalizations, with adjusted rate ratios (RRs) of 1.37 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.59), 1.37 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.58), and 1.29 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.47), respectively. Overall, recovery to pre-hospital function was observed in only 132 (25.4%) admissions. Relative to elective major surgery, the likelihood of recovering pre-hospital function was considerably lower for each of the three other groups. The results were consistent for basic, instrumental and mobility activities.

CONCLUSION

Among older persons discharged to a SNF after an acute hospitalization, the functional course over 6months was generally poor, with recovery to pre-hospital function observed in only one out of every four cases. Relative to elective major surgery, functional outcomes were worse for non-elective major surgery, critical illness, and other hospitalizations.

Sequence of Functional Loss and Recovery in Nursing Homes

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

This study provides benchmarks for likelihood, number of days until, and sequence of functional decline and recovery.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed activities of daily living (ADLs) of 296,051 residents in Veteran Affairs nursing homes between January 1, 2000 and October 9, 2012. ADLs were extracted from standard minimum data set assessments. Because of significant overlap between short- and long-stay residents, we did not distinguish between these populations. Twenty-five combinations of ADL deficits described the experience of 84.3% of all residents. A network model described transitions among these 25 combinations. The network was used to calculate the shortest, longest, and maximum likelihood paths using backward induction methodology. Longitudinal data were used to derive a Bayesian network that preserved the sequence of occurrence of 9 ADL deficits.

RESULTS

The majority of residents (57%) followed 4 pathways in loss of function. The most likely sequence, in order of occurrence, was bathing, grooming, walking, dressing, toileting, bowel continence, urinary continence, transferring, and feeding. The other three paths occurred with reversals in the order of dressing/toileting and bowel/urinary continence. ADL impairments persisted without any change for an average of 164 days (SD = 62). Residents recovered partially or completely from a single impairment in 57% of cases over an average of 119 days (SD = 41). Recovery rates declined as residents developed more than 4 impairments.

IMPLICATIONS

Recovery of deficits among those studied followed a relatively predictable path, and although more than half recovered from a single functional deficit, recovery exceeded 100 days suggesting time to recover often occurs over many months.