Evaluating and implementing block jackknife resampling Mendelian randomization to mitigate bias induced by overlapping samples

Exploring pleiotropy in Mendelian randomisation analyses: What are genetic variants associated with 'cigarette smoking initiation' really capturing?

Genetic variants used as instruments for exposures in Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses may have horizontal pleiotropic effects (i.e., influence outcomes via pathways other than through the exposure), which can undermine the validity of results. We examined the extent of this using smoking behaviours as an example. We first ran a phenome-wide association study in UK Biobank, using a smoking initiation genetic instrument. From the most strongly associated phenotypes, we selected those we considered could either plausibly or not plausibly be caused by smoking. We examined associations between genetic instruments for smoking initiation, smoking heaviness and lifetime smoking and these phenotypes in UK Biobank and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We conducted negative control analyses among never smokers, including children. We found evidence that smoking-related genetic instruments were associated with phenotypes not plausibly caused by smoking in UK Biobank and (to a lesser extent) ALSPAC. We observed associations with phenotypes among never smokers. Our results demonstrate that smoking-related genetic risk scores are associated with unexpected phenotypes that are less plausibly downstream of smoking. This may reflect horizontal pleiotropy in these genetic risk scores, and we would encourage researchers to exercise caution this when using these and genetic risk scores for other complex behavioural exposures. We outline approaches that could be taken to consider this and overcome issues caused by potential horizontal pleiotropy, for example, in genetically informed causal inference analyses (e.g., MR) it is important to consider negative control outcomes and triangulation approaches, to avoid arriving at incorrect conclusions.

Association between alcohol consumption and incidence of dementia in current drinkers: linear and non-linear mendelian randomization analysis

Background

Previous conventional epidemiological studies found a J-shape relationship between alcohol consumption and dementia, but this result was subject to confounding biases and reverse causation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the potential linear or non-linear causal association between alcohol consumption and the incident risk of dementia in current drinkers.

Methods

This study used data from the UK Biobank to investigate the relationship between alcohol consumption and dementia risk. 313,958 White British current drinkers, who were free of dementia during 2006-2010, were followed up until 2021. Alcohol consumption was self-reported and calculated according to the National Health Service guideline. The primary outcome was all-cause dementia identified through hospital and mortality records. We used multivariable Cox models with restricted cubic splines for conventional analysis and both non-linear and linear Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses to assess causal relationships, employing a genetic score based on 95 SNPs identified from a meta-genome-wide association study of 941,280 people from Europe.

Findings

313,958 current drinkers consumed an average of 13.6 [IQR: 7.1-25.2] units/week alcohol (men averaged 20.2 [11.1-33.9] units/week and women 9.5 [5.3-16.7] units/week). During a mean follow-up of 13.2 years, 5394 (1.7%) developed dementia. Multivariable Cox model with restricted cubic spline functions identified a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and dementia risk, with the lowest risk at 12.2 units/week. The non-linear MR failed to identify a significant non-linear causal relationship (p = 0.45). Both individual-level (HR: 2.22 95%CI [1.06-4.66]) and summary-level (1.89 [1.53-2.32]) linear MR analyses indicated that higher genetically predicted alcohol consumption increased dementia risk.

Interpretation

This study identified a positive linear causal relationship between alcohol consumption and dementia among current drinkers. The J-shaped association found in conventional epidemiological analysis was not supported by non-linear MR analyses. Our findings suggested that there was no safe level of alcohol consumption for dementia.

Funding

The Shenzhen Science and Technology Program and the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The Application of Mendelian Randomization in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: Current Status and Future Prospects

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and is associated with a wide range of risk factors, and genetically associated conditions. While many CVDs are preventable and early detection alongside treatment can significantly mitigate complication risks, current prediction models for CVDs need enhancements for better accuracy. Mendelian randomization (MR) offers a novel approach for estimating the causal relationship between exposure and outcome by using genetic variation in quasi-experimental data. This method minimizes the impact of confounding variables by leveraging the random allocation of genes during gamete formation, thereby facilitating the integration of new predictors into risk prediction models to refine the accuracy of prediction. In this review, we delve into the theory behind MR, as well as the strengths, applications, and limitations behind this emerging technology. A particular focus will be placed on MR application to CVD, and integration into CVD prediction frameworks. We conclude by discussing the inclusion of various populations and by offering insights into potential areas for future research and refinement.

GWAS advancements to investigate disease associations and biological mechanisms

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been instrumental in elucidating the genetic architecture of various traits and diseases. Despite the success of GWAS, inherent limitations such as identifying rare and ultra-rare variants, the potential for spurious associations, and in pinpointing causative agents can undermine diagnostic capabilities. This review provides an overview of GWAS and highlights recent advances in genetics that employ a range of methodologies, including Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS), Mendelian Randomization (MR), the Pangenome's high-quality T2T-CHM13 panel, and the Human BioMolecular Atlas Program (HuBMAP), as potential enablers of current and future GWAS research. State of the literature demonstrate the capabilities of these techniques in enhancing the statistical power of GWAS. WGS, with its comprehensive approach, captures the entire genome, surpassing the capabilities of the traditional GWAS technique focused on predefined Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) sites. The Pangenome's T2T-CHM13 panel, with its holistic approach, aids in the analysis of regions with high sequence identity, such as segmental duplications (SDs). Mendelian Randomization has advanced causative inference, improving clinical diagnostics and facilitating definitive conclusions. Furthermore, spatial biology techniques like HuBMAP, enable 3D molecular mapping of tissues at single-cell resolution, offering insights into pathology of complex traits. This study aims to elucidate and advocate for the increased application of these technologies, highlighting their potential to shape the future of GWAS research.

Causal associations between estradiol and mouth ulcers: A Mendelian randomization study

People have difficulty in eating and speaking when they are suffering from mouth ulcers. Some studies suggest that estradiol is associated with the development and treatment of mouth ulcers, while some do not. To clarify the effect of estradiol on mouth ulcers, we performed 2-sample Mendelian randomization and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) analysis to evaluate their relationship. Data were obtained from the IEU OpenGWAS project and UK biobank, including male estradiol dataset (case/controls = 13,367/134,323), female estradiol dataset (case/controls = 37,461/126,524), mouth ulcers dataset (case/controls = 47,102/414,011). The causal associations were estimated by MR-Egger, weighted median, inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, simple mode, and weighted mode. Cochran Q test, MR-Egger intercept test, MR-PRESSO tests, and leave-one-out analysis were used to examine sensitivity analyses. The MVMR controlling for depression, anxiety or panic attacks, severe stress and adjustment disorders was used to assess the effect of estradiol on mouth ulcers. Through screening, 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of males and 2 SNPs of females in estradiol were used for harmonizing and MR analysis. The 2-sample MR analysis showed no causal association between estradiol of males and mouth ulcers (IVW, OR: 0.998, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.995-1.001, P = .18). Similar results were obtained between estradiol of females and mouth ulcers (IVW, OR: 1.000, 95% CI: 0.988-1.012, P = .97). No pleiotropy and heterogeneity were found and the results were robust (P > .05). After adjusting for the potential effects of confounders, estradiol of males and mouth ulcers still showed no causal association through MVMR analysis (P = .081). While MVMR analysis showed that the causal relationship between estradiol and mouth ulcers in women could not be statistical for the small number of SNPs. There was no evidence of a causal relationship between estradiol and mouth ulcers. The strategy of treating mouth ulcers with estradiol still needs to be confirmed by more studies.

Characterizing the Causal Pathway From Childhood Adiposity to Right Heart Physiology and Pulmonary Circulation Using Lifecourse Mendelian Randomization

BACKGROUND

Observational epidemiological studies have reported an association between childhood adiposity and altered cardiac morphology and function in later life. However, whether this is due to a direct consequence of being overweight during childhood has been difficult to establish, particularly as accounting for other measures of body composition throughout the lifecourse can be exceptionally challenging.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we used human genetics to investigate this using a causal inference technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. This approach allowed us to evaluate the effect of childhood body size on 11 measures of right heart and pulmonary circulation independent of other anthropometric traits at various stages in the lifecourse. We found strong evidence that childhood body size has a direct effect on an enlarged right heart structure in later life (eg, right ventricular end-diastolic volume: β=0.24 [95% CI, 0.15-0.33]; P=3×10-7) independent of adulthood body size. In contrast, childhood body size effects on maximum ascending aorta diameter attenuated upon accounting for body size in adulthood, suggesting that this effect is likely attributed to individuals remaining overweight into later life. Effects of childhood body size on pulmonary artery traits and measures of right atrial function became weaker upon accounting for adulthood fat-free mass and childhood height, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that, although childhood body size has a long-term influence on an enlarged heart structure in adulthood, associations with the other structural components of the cardiovascular system and their function may be largely attributed to body composition at other stages in the lifecourse.

A lifecourse Mendelian randomization study uncovers age-dependent effects of adiposity on asthma risk

Evaluating the long-term consequences of childhood lifestyle factors on asthma risk can be exceptionally challenging in epidemiology given that cases are typically diagnosed at various timepoints throughout the lifecourse. In this study, we used human genetic data to evaluate the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity on risk of pediatric (n = 13,962 cases) and adult-onset asthma (n = 26,582 cases) with a common set of controls (n = 300,671) using a technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. We found that childhood adiposity directly increases risk of pediatric asthma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.03-1.37, p = 0.03), but limited evidence that it has an effect on adult-onset asthma after accounting for adiposity during adulthood (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.93-1.17, p = 0.39). Conversely, there was strong evidence that adulthood adiposity increases asthma risk in midlife (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.28-1.46, P = 7 × 10-12). These findings suggest that childhood and adulthood adiposity are independent risk factors for asthma at each of their corresponding timepoints in the lifecourse.

Low levels of small HDL particles predict but do not influence risk of sepsis

BACKGROUND

Low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol have been associated with higher rates and severity of infection. Alterations in inflammatory mediators and infection are associated with alterations in HDL cholesterol. It is unknown whether the association between HDL and infection is present for all particle sizes, and whether the observed associations are confounded by IL-6 signalling.

METHODS

In the UK Biobank, ~ 270,000 individuals have data on HDL subclasses derived from nuclear magnetic resonance analysis. We estimated the association of particle count of total HDL and HDL subclasses (small, medium, large, and extra-large HDL) with sepsis, sepsis-related death, and critical care admission in a Cox regression model. We subsequently utilised genetic data from UK Biobank and FinnGen to perform Mendelian randomisation (MR) of each HDL subclass and sepsis to test for a causal relationship. Finally, we explored the role of IL-6 signalling as a potential causal driver of changes in HDL subclasses.

RESULTS

In observational analyses, higher particle count of small HDL was associated with protection from sepsis (Hazard ratio, HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.74-0.86, p = 4 × 10-9 comparing Quartile 4, highest quartile of HDL to Quartile 1, lowest quartile of HDL), sepsis-related death (HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.74-0.86, p = 2 × 10-4), and critical care admission with sepsis (HR 0.72 95% CI 0.60-0.85, p = 2 × 10-4). Parallel associations with other HDL subclasses were likely driven by changes in the small HDL compartment. MR analyses did not strongly support causality of small HDL particle count on sepsis incidence (Odds ratio, OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.89-1.07, p = 0.6) or death (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.75-1.17, p = 0.56), although the estimate on critical care admission with sepsis supported protection (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.95, p = 0.02). Bidirectional MR analyses suggested that increased IL-6 signalling was associated with reductions in both small (beta on small HDL particle count - 0.16, 95% CI - 0.10 to - 0.21 per natural log change in SD-scaled CRP, p = 9 × 10-8).and total HDL particle count (beta - 0.13, 95% CI - 0.09 to - 0.17, p = 7 × 10-10), but that the reverse effect of HDL on IL-6 signalling was largely null.

CONCLUSIONS

Low number of small HDL particles are associated with increased hazard of sepsis, sepsis-related death, and sepsis-related critical care admission. However, genetic analyses did not strongly support this as causal. Instead, we demonstrate that increased IL-6 signalling, which is known to alter infection risk, could confound associations with reduced HDL particle count, and suggest this may explain part of the observed association between (small) HDL particle count and sepsis.

Constructing an atlas of associations between polygenic scores from across the human phenome and circulating metabolic biomarkers

Background

Polygenic scores (PGS) are becoming an increasingly popular approach to predict complex disease risk, although they also hold the potential to develop insight into the molecular profiles of patients with an elevated genetic predisposition to disease.

Methods

We sought to construct an atlas of associations between 125 different PGS derived using results from genome-wide association studies and 249 circulating metabolites in up to 83,004 participants from the UK Biobank.

Results

As an exemplar to demonstrate the value of this atlas, we conducted a hypothesis-free evaluation of all associations with glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), an inflammatory biomarker. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization, we find that the associations highlighted likely reflect the effect of risk factors, such as adiposity or liability towards smoking, on systemic inflammation as opposed to the converse direction. Moreover, we repeated all analyses in our atlas within age strata to investigate potential sources of collider bias, such as medication usage. This was exemplified by comparing associations between lipoprotein lipid profiles and the coronary artery disease PGS in the youngest and oldest age strata, which had differing proportions of individuals undergoing statin therapy. Lastly, we generated all PGS-metabolite associations stratified by sex and separately after excluding 13 established lipid-associated loci to further evaluate the robustness of findings.

Conclusions

We envisage that the atlas of results constructed in our study will motivate future hypothesis generation and help prioritize and deprioritize circulating metabolic traits for in-depth investigations. All results can be visualized and downloaded at http://mrcieu.mrsoftware.org/metabolites_PRS_atlas.

Funding

This work is supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation, and the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit.

Constructing an atlas of associations between polygenic scores from across the human phenome and circulating metabolic biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Polygenic scores (PGS) are becoming an increasingly popular approach to predict complex disease risk, although they also hold the potential to develop insight into the molecular profiles of patients with an elevated genetic predisposition to disease.

METHODS

We sought to construct an atlas of associations between 125 different PGS derived using results from genome-wide association studies and 249 circulating metabolites in up to 83,004 participants from the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

As an exemplar to demonstrate the value of this atlas, we conducted a hypothesis-free evaluation of all associations with glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), an inflammatory biomarker. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization, we find that the associations highlighted likely reflect the effect of risk factors, such as adiposity or liability towards smoking, on systemic inflammation as opposed to the converse direction. Moreover, we repeated all analyses in our atlas within age strata to investigate potential sources of collider bias, such as medication usage. This was exemplified by comparing associations between lipoprotein lipid profiles and the coronary artery disease PGS in the youngest and oldest age strata, which had differing proportions of individuals undergoing statin therapy. Lastly, we generated all PGS-metabolite associations stratified by sex and separately after excluding 13 established lipid-associated loci to further evaluate the robustness of findings.

CONCLUSIONS

We envisage that the atlas of results constructed in our study will motivate future hypothesis generation and help prioritize and deprioritize circulating metabolic traits for in-depth investigations. All results can be visualized and downloaded at http://mrcieu.mrsoftware.org/metabolites_PRS_atlas.

FUNDING

This work is supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation, and the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit.