Breast cancer incidence rates in Slovenia 1971-1993

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Incidence of Male Breast Cancer from 1980 to 2019 in Taiwan and the USA

Although male breast cancer (MBC) is globally rare, its incidence significantly increased from 1990 to 2017. The aim of this study was to examine variations in the trends of MBC incidence between populations in Taiwan and the USA from 1980 to 2019. The Taiwan Cancer Registry database and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute of the USA were used. The age-standardized incidence rate was calculated using the world standard population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, time period, and birth cohort effect on MBC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of MBC in both countries increased from 2010 to 2019 (Taiwan: average annual percentage change (AAPC) = 2.59%; USA: AAPC = 0.64%). The age and period effects on the incidence rates in both countries strengthened, but the cohort effect was only identified in Taiwan (Rate ratio: 4.03). The identified cohort effect in this study bears resemblance to that noted in a previous investigation on female breast cancer in Taiwan. This suggests the possible presence of common environmental factors influencing breast cancer incidence in both genders, such as a high fat diet and xenoestrogen.

Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach

Background

The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison.

Results

We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994).

Conclusion

The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

Population-based mammography screening and breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia

OBJECTIVE

To analyse breast cancer incidence trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to population-based mammography screening targeting women aged 50 to 69 years.

METHODS

Trends in age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancers in NSW women aged > or = 40 years were examined in relation to mammography screening rates and screening cancer detection rates.

RESULTS

Incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW women increased in all age-groups over 1972 to 2002. The incidence trend for women aged 50 to 69 years showed that the steepest rise was associated with increased participation in population-based mammography screening, which was implemented from 1988 and achieved state-wide coverage in 1995. The elevated incidence of invasive cancer significantly exceeded pre-screening levels, and persisted after rates of initial screens declined. This elevated incidence was sustained by the contribution of cancers diagnosed through subsequent screening, and resulted from increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screens.

CONCLUSIONS

The recent increase in invasive breast cancer incidence in NSW is associated with mammography screening, and occurred mostly in the target age-group women. Persistence of higher incidence after 1994 was not explicable by inflation of cancer incidence due to detection of prevalent screen cases, but was associated with a trend of increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screening rounds, probably consequent to quality improvements in mammography screening diagnosis.

Significant difference in the trends of female breast cancer incidence between Taiwanese and Caucasian Americans: implications from age-period-cohort analysis

Female invasive breast cancer (FIBC) in Taiwan is characterized by a striking recent increase of incidence and a relatively young median age (45-49 years) at diagnosis. The Westernization of lifestyle that is increasingly affecting younger generations of Taiwanese may have an important impact on this change. We compared epidemiologic data on FIBC in Taiwanese obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry with data for Caucasian Americans obtained from the database of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for the period from 1980 to 1999. Age-specific incidence rates of FIBC were plotted by calendar year at diagnosis and by birth cohort for both populations. The individual effects of time period and birth cohort on the incidence trends of FIBC in both populations were evaluated using the age-period-cohort analysis. The incidence rate of FIBC was continuously increased in Taiwanese throughout the past 2 decades, whereas the increase of incidence was slowing down in Caucasian Americans. The incidence rates in Taiwanese women born after the 1960s were approaching that of Caucasian Americans. The age-period-cohort analysis showed a much stronger birth cohort effect on the incidence trend of FIBC in Taiwanese than in Caucasian Americans. This strong birth cohort effect corresponded to the Westernization of lifestyle in Taiwan since 1960. These findings indicate that a continued shift in the incidence and age distribution pattern of FIBC in Taiwanese toward that of Caucasian Americans should be anticipated.

Breast cancer mortality patterns and time trends in 10 new EU member states: Mortality declining in young women, but still increasing in the elderly

Breast cancer is the cancer diagnosed most frequently in women worldwide. In Europe it is the most common cancer in the female population, with approximately 350,000 new cases diagnosed each year including 130,000 deaths. Incidence rates are increasing in the majority of European countries, whereas a decline in mortality rates has been observed in many West European countries since the late 1980s and early 1990s. Our study examines breast cancer mortality patterns and time trends in the new European Union (EU) member states and compares them with the situation in current EU member states. A Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal changes in mortality rates and the trends examined in the light of known risk factors, screening programs and advances in treatment. In the majority of the countries analyzed, a deceleration in the increase of mortality rates appeared, followed by a decrease of mortality in many of them in the second half of the 1990s. The declining tendency was visible primarily in young women, and to a lesser extent in middle-aged women, whereas in elderly women a continuing increase of mortality was observed. Analysis of mortality data, information from previous publications, as well as analysis of known factors influencing breast cancer risk suggest that changes observed are due mainly to recent advances in treatment rather than changes in lifestyle risk factors or the result of screening programs. Early detection and a shift toward more favorable stage distribution could have played the leading role for mortality decline in younger patients.

Breast cancer incidence among women of Branicevo region in the period 1991 - 2000

Introduction Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in women, the second leading cause of cancer death, and the third most common cancer overall, throughout the world. In 1996, 910.000 new cases were diagnosed worldwide (about 9% of all new cases). Over 50% of breast cancer incidence occurred in the developed world. The aims of this study were to study breast cancer incidence during 1991-2000 in the region of Branicevo and to analyze differences in incidence rate for breast cancer in two periods of time 1991-1991 and 1996-2000. Material and methods This was a descriptive study. Routine national incidence data were used from the Republic Statistical Office. The analysis was restricted to the region of Branicevo. Age adjustment of annual incidence rates was carried out using five-year intervals and the distribution of the World population by Sega as the standard. Results A total of 542 women affected with breast cancer were evidenced in the Region of Branicevo during the period 1991- 2000, accounting for 25.3% of all malignant cases. Over the studied ten-year period the average standardized incidence rate (1:100,000) for breast cancer was 27.4. Based on the average age-specific incidence rates (1:100,000) female breast cancer was least frequently evidenced in women up to 34 years of age, while it was most frequent in groups aged 45 - 49 and 70 - 74 years. Over the period 1991-1995, female breast cancer accounted for 32.0% and in the period 1996-2000 for 22.2% of all mlignancies, with the average standardized incidence rates (1:100,000) being 22.5% and 32.4%, respectively. Discussion The average standardized incidence rate (1:100,000) for breast cancer was 27.4, which is similar to the rates evidenced in Eastern European countries, such as Poland (38.7), Slovakia (34.5), Hungary (29.6), Romania (31.1), Belarus (24.7) and Russia (40.6). Increase of breast cancer incidence rate, evidenced in the Region of Branicevo, is also evidenced in most countries with previously low incidence rates. Increase of breast cancer incidence rate is also detected in our neighboring countries, Bulgaria and Slovenia. Conclusions An increasing trend of breast cancer incidence rate was evidenced in the Region of Branicevo over the period 1991 - 2000, partially due to well kept registries and partially due to actual increase in the number of patients affected with malignant diseases.

Age period cohort analysis of time trends in regional mortality rates in England, Wales and Scotland

Previous studies have demonstrated regional variation in mortality rates, this reducing for younger but not older individuals. However, it has not been clear from such studies whether or not the overall findings can or cannot be attributed to particular regions that may have abnormal patterns of change over time. We analyse mortality rates by region using data from the census years from 1931 until 1991 for adults. Age period cohort models, based on the local 'curvatures', are used to describe the changes in the rates. We also use estimable contrasts to compare the later periods with the earlier periods and to compare pre- and post-war cohorts. There is strong evidence that the changes in the mortality rates are associated with non-linear period and cohort effects. There is no evidence that these curvatures vary over regions. There is evidence that the curvatures are not the same among men and women. Among women there is evidence that there is a change in trend in the periods from 1961 to 1991 compared with the trend in the earlier periods from 1931 to 1951, such that the reduction in the mortality rates with time are slowing down for women. Among men who had higher mortality rates, there is not so much evidence of a slowing down of the reduction. Post-war cohorts of women from 1941 onwards are enjoying a reduction in mortality compared with the cohorts from 1901 to 31, while among men there is no evidence of a change in mortality trends among younger cohorts. Changes in the mortality rates over regions have come about from different long-term temporal trends in the regions rather than abrupt changes taking place at different times in different regions. The general convergence of mortality rates over regions over time with a consequent reduction in regional variance is masked by two regions, Scotland and East Anglia. These regions appear to differ from the regions as a whole in the relationship of mortality to age at a given period and in the reduction of mortality over time (drift), Scotland having a higher mortality, especially at younger ages, and lower downward trend, and East Anglia vice versa.