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Dey C, Wu J, Uesi J, Sara G, Dudley M, Knight K, Scott JG, Jay O, Bowden M, Perkes IE. Youth suicidality risk relative to ambient temperature and heatwaves across climate zones: A time series analysis of emergency department presentations in New South Wales, Australia. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2024:48674241290449. [PMID: 39441101 DOI: 10.1177/00048674241290449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Youth suicidality prevalence continues to rise alongside hot weather severity. Links between these two variables are underexplored. We examined associations between daily temperature and emergency department suicidality presentations by young people. We assessed these associations for five regions covering New South Wales as determined by 'climate zone' and analysed for heatwave effects as well as based on demographic subgroups. METHODS Daily emergency department presentations for suicidality by people aged 12-24 years across New South Wales, Australia, during warmer months (November to March) from 2012 to 2019 were examined in relation to daily mean temperature and heatwaves (⩾3 consecutive days ⩾ 95th percentile of long-term daily mean temperature) and by climate zone, using a generalised additive model with negative binomial distribution. Risks for age- and sex-based subgroups were also calculated. RESULTS New South Wales youth suicidality presentation rates were significantly higher on hotter days. For every 1°C rise above average daily mean temperature, youth suicidality presentations to New South Wales emergency departments increased by 1.3%. Heatwaves did not increase presentation rates beyond single-day daily mean temperature effects. These findings were predominantly replicated across climate zones and demographic subgroups, though the association between suicidality and ambient temperature was weaker in coastal regions including Eastern Sydney. CONCLUSION There is a positive linear association between ambient temperature and youth suicidality presentations to emergency departments. Risks are increased on single hot days, not only during heatwaves. Public health, broader societal approaches to heat and health system planning should consider impacts on youth suicidality of predicted increases in hot weather severity and frequency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cybele Dey
- Department of Psychological Medicine, The Sydney Children's Hospitals Network, Westmead, NSW, Australia
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Jianyun Wu
- System Information and Analytics Branch, NSW Ministry of Health, St Leonards, NSW, Australia
| | - John Uesi
- System Information and Analytics Branch, NSW Ministry of Health, St Leonards, NSW, Australia
| | - Grant Sara
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- System Information and Analytics Branch, NSW Ministry of Health, St Leonards, NSW, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Northern Clinical School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Michael Dudley
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Adolescent Service, Prince of Wales Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Katherine Knight
- Department of Psychological Medicine, The Sydney Children's Hospitals Network, Westmead, NSW, Australia
| | - James G Scott
- Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, South Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Child and Youth Mental Health Service, Children's Health Queensland, South Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Michael Bowden
- Mental Health Branch, NSW Ministry of Health, St Leonards, NSW, Australia
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Westmead Clinical School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Iain E Perkes
- Department of Psychological Medicine, The Sydney Children's Hospitals Network, Westmead, NSW, Australia
- Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Discipline of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Gan T, Liu Y, Bambrick H, Zhou M, Hu W. Liver Cancer Mortality Disparities at a Fine Scale Among Subpopulations in China: Nationwide Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Trends. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e54967. [PMID: 39118559 PMCID: PMC11327839 DOI: 10.2196/54967] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Revised: 05/21/2024] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Background China has the highest number of liver cancers worldwide, and liver cancer is at the forefront of all cancers in China. However, current research on liver cancer in China primarily relies on extrapolated data or relatively lagging data, with limited focus on subregions and specific population groups. Objective The purpose of this study is to identify geographic disparities in liver cancer by exploring the spatial and temporal trends of liver cancer mortality and the years of life lost (YLL) caused by it within distinct geographical regions, climate zones, and population groups in China. Methods Data from the National Death Surveillance System between 2013 and 2020 were used to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer (LASMR) and YLL from liver cancer in China. The spatial distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer were analyzed in subgroups by sex, age, region, and climate classification. Estimated annual percentage change was used to describe liver cancer trends in various regions, and partial correlation was applied to explore associations between LASMR and latitude. Results In China, the average LASMR decreased from 28.79 in 2013 to 26.38 per 100,000 in 2020 among men and 11.09 to 9.83 per 100,000 among women. This decline in mortality was consistent across all age groups. Geographically, Guangxi had the highest LASMR for men in China, with a rate of 50.15 per 100,000, while for women, it was Heilongjiang, with a rate of 16.64 per 100,000. Within these regions, the LASMR among men in most parts of Guangxi ranged from 32.32 to 74.98 per 100,000, whereas the LASMR among women in the majority of Heilongjiang ranged from 13.72 to 21.86 per 100,000. The trend of LASMR varied among regions. For both men and women, Guizhou showed an increasing trend in LASMR from 2013 to 2020, with estimated annual percentage changes ranging from 10.05% to 29.07% and from 10.09% to 21.71%, respectively. Both men and women observed an increase in LASMR with increasing latitude below the 40th parallel. However, overall, LASMR in men was positively correlated with latitude (R=0.225; P<.001), while in women, it showed a negative correlation (R=0.083; P=.04). High LASMR areas among men aligned with subtropical zones, like Cwa and Cfa. The age group 65 years and older, the southern region, and the Cwa climate zone had the highest YLL rates at 4850.50, 495.50, and 440.17 per 100,000, respectively. However, the overall trends in these groups showed a decline over the period. Conclusions Despite the declining overall trend of liver cancer in China, there are still marked disparities between regions and populations. Future prevention and control should focus on high-risk regions and populations to further reduce the burden of liver cancer in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ting Gan
- Ecosystem Change and Population Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Yunning Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- Ecosystem Change and Population Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- Ecosystem Change and Population Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
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Damtew YT, Varghese BM, Anikeeva O, Tong M, Hansen A, Dear K, Zhang Y, Morgan G, Driscoll T, Capon T, Gourley M, Prescott V, Bi P. Current and future burden of Ross River virus infection attributable to increasing temperature in Australia: a population-based study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2024; 48:101124. [PMID: 39040035 PMCID: PMC11260579 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2024] [Revised: 05/28/2024] [Accepted: 06/05/2024] [Indexed: 07/24/2024]
Abstract
Background Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change. Methods As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series. Findings During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively. Interpretation These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention. Funding Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yohannes Tefera Damtew
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O.BOX 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | - Blesson Mathew Varghese
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Olga Anikeeva
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Michael Tong
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia
| | - Tim Driscoll
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia
| | - Tony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michelle Gourley
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Vanessa Prescott
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia
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Varghese BM, Hansen A, Mann N, Liu J, Zhang Y, Driscoll TR, Morgan GG, Dear K, Capon A, Gourley M, Prescott V, Dolar V, Bi P. The burden of occupational injury attributable to high temperatures in Australia, 2014-19: a retrospective observational study. Med J Aust 2023; 219:542-548. [PMID: 37992722 DOI: 10.5694/mja2.52171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the population health impact of high temperatures on workplace health and safety by estimating the burden of heat-attributable occupational injury in Australia. STUDY DESIGN, SETTING Retrospective observational study; estimation of burden of occupational injury in Australia attributable to high temperatures during 2014-19, based on Safe Work Australia (work-related traumatic injury fatalities and workers' compensation databases) and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data (Australian Burden of Disease Study and National Hospital Morbidity databases), and a meta-analysis of climate zone-specific risk data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Burden of heat-attributable occupational injuries as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), comprising the numbers of years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs), nationally, by Köppen-Geiger climate zone, and by state and territory. RESULTS During 2014-19, an estimated 42 884 years of healthy life were lost to occupational injury, comprising 39 485 YLLs (92.1%) and 3399 YLDs (7.9%), at a rate of 0.80 DALYs per 1000 workers per year. A total of 967 occupational injury-related DALYs were attributable to heat (2.3% of occupational injury-related DALYs), comprising 890 YLLs (92%) and 77 YLDs (8%). By climate zone, the heat-attributable proportion was largest in the tropical Am (12 DALYs; 3.5%) and Aw zones (34 DALYs; 3.5%); by state and territory, the proportion was largest in New South Wales and Queensland (each 2.9%), which also included the largest numbers of heat-attributable occupational injury-related DALYs (NSW: 379 DALYs, 39% of national total; Queensland: 308 DALYs; 32%). CONCLUSION An estimated 2.3% of the occupational injury burden in Australia is attributable to high ambient temperatures. To prevent this burden increasing with global warming, adaptive measures and industry-based policies are needed to safeguard workplace health and safety, particularly in heat-exposed industries, such as agriculture, transport, and construction.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Nick Mann
- Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT
| | | | | | | | - Geoffrey G Morgan
- The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
- Centre for Rural Health, the University of Sydney, Lismore, NSW
| | - Keith Dear
- The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | | | - Vergil Dolar
- Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra, ACT
| | - Peng Bi
- The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA
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Liu J, Varghese BM, Hansen A, Dear K, Morgan G, Driscoll T, Zhang Y, Gourley M, Capon A, Bi P. Projection of high temperature-related burden of kidney disease in Australia under different climate change, population and adaptation scenarios: population-based study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 41:100916. [PMID: 37867620 PMCID: PMC10587708 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Revised: 08/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Background The dual impacts of a warming climate and population ageing lead to an increasing kidney disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of quantifying the burden of kidney disease (BoKD) attributable to high temperature, yet studies on this subject are limited. The study aims to quantify the BoKD attributable to high temperatures in Australia across all states and territories, and project future BoKD under climatic, population and adaptation scenarios. Methods Data on disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to kidney disease, including years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD), were collected during 2003-2018 (baseline) across all states and territories in Australia. The temperature-response association was estimated using a meta-regression model. Future temperature projections were calculated using eight downscaled climate models to estimate changes in attributable BoKD centred around 2030s and 2050s, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), while considering changes in population size and age structure, and human adaptation to climate change. Findings Over the baseline (2003-2018), high-temperature contributed to 2.7% (Standard Deviation: 0.4%) of the observed BoKD in Australia. The future population attributable fraction and the attributable BoKD, projected using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, showed a gradually increasing trend when assuming no human adaptation. Future projections were most strongly influenced by the population change, with the high temperature-related BoKD increasing by 18.4-67.4% compared to the baseline under constant population and by 100.2-291.2% when accounting for changes in population size and age structure. However, when human adaptation was adopted (from no to partial to full), the high temperature-related BoKD became smaller. Interpretation It is expected that increasing high temperature exposure will substantially contribute to higher BoKD across Australia, underscoring the urgent need for public health interventions to mitigate the negative health impacts of a warming climate on BoKD. Funding Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingwen Liu
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | | | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Australia
| | - Timothy Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Australia
| | - Ying Zhang
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Australia
| | - Michelle Gourley
- Burden of Disease and Mortality Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Australia
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Australia
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