Changing Epidemiology of Varicella Outbreaks in the United States During the Varicella Vaccination Program, 1995-2019

Live-Attenuated Vaccines in Pediatric Solid Organ Transplant

Measles, mumps, rubella (MMR), and varicella incidence rates have increased due to the delayed vaccination schedules of children secondary to the COVID-19 pandemic. Decreased herd immunity creates a risk for immunocompetent children and immunocompromised individuals in the community. Historically, live-attenuated vaccines (MMR and varicella) were recommended before solid organ transplants. The amount of time before transplant when this is appropriate is often debated, as is the utility of vaccine titers. MMR and varicella vaccines previously were not recommended in immunocompromised patients post-solid organ transplant due to the undue risk of transmission and posed infection risk. The new literature on live-attenuated vaccines in post-transplant pediatric patients provides more insight into the vaccines' safety and efficacy. The present article aims to provide guidance on live-attenuated vaccines (MMR and varicella) in the pre-transplant and post-operative solid organ transplant phases of care in pediatric patients.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella Outbreaks - China, 2006-2022

Introduction

Varicella outbreaks significantly disrupt schools and other child-centered institutions. This study aimed to identify patterns and epidemiological features of varicella outbreaks in China from 2006 to 2022.

Methods

Data were extracted from outbreak reports submitted to the Public Health Emergency Reporting Management Information System within the specified timeframe. Analytical methods included Spearman correlation tests and the Mann-Kendall trend tests, conducted using R software to analyze and summarize reported data. Additionally, statistical analyses of trends and epidemiological characteristics were performed using SPSS software.

Results

Between 2006 and 2022, a total of 11,990 varicella outbreaks were reported in China, resulting in 354,082 cases. The attack rates showed a decreasing trend over the years (Z=-4.49, P<0.05). These outbreaks occurred in two peaks annually. The eastern region accounted for the highest number of outbreaks (31.53%), followed by the southwestern (24.22%) and southern (17.93%) regions. Varicella outbreaks were most common in elementary schools. Most of the outbreaks (60.43%) were classified as Grade IV (general) severity, with 86.41% of the outbreaks having 10-49 cases. The median and inter-quartile ranges (IQR) of the duration of outbreaks, response time, and case counts were 21 (10, 39) days, 4 (0, 12) days, and 23 (16, 35) cases, respectively. These variables showed a positive correlation (P<0.001).

Conclusions

Varicella outbreaks exhibited fluctuating trends, initially decreasing until 2012, followed by an increase, reaching the highest peak in 2018-2019. Continual monitoring of varicella epidemiology is necessary to assess the burden of the disease and formulate evidence-based strategies and policies for its prevention and control.

Neuro-ophthalmic complications of varicella-zoster virus

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review broadly describes recent neuro-ophthalmic manifestations of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) reported in literature.

RECENT FINDINGS

Despite varicella vaccination, the incidence of herpes zoster continues to rise, potentially leading to devastating consequences when ocular complications occur.A small but growing literature documents cases of retinal disease because of varicella reactivation after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, ischemic optic neuropathy occurring during herpes zoster ophthalmicus, VZV-induced orbital apex syndrome, and immune-mediated ocular complications in patients with prior neuro-ophthalmic manifestations of VZV.

SUMMARY

It is important for clinicians to keep abreast of the diverse neuro-ophthalmic manifestations of VZV as early diagnosis and treatment often lead to better visual outcomes.

An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Predicting Varicella Outbreaks - China, 2019

Introduction

Varicella, a prevalent respiratory infection among children, has become an escalating public health issue in China. The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-based early warning systems. This research employed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of predicting future varicella outbreaks in the country.

Methods

An ARIMA model was developed and fine-tuned using historical data on the monthly instances of varicella outbreaks reported in China from 2005 to 2018. To determine statistically significant models, parameter and Ljung-Box tests were employed. The coefficients of determination (R2) and the normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were compared to selecting an optimal model. This chosen model was subsequently utilized to forecast varicella outbreak cases for the year 2019.

Results

Four models passed parameter (all P<0.05) and Ljung-Box tests (all P>0.05). ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was determined to be the optimal model based on its coefficient of determination R2 (0.271) and standardized BIC (14.970). Fitted values made by the ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 model closely followed the values observed in 2019, the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value is 15.2%.

Conclusion

The ARIMA model can be employed to predict impending trends in varicella outbreaks. This serves to offer a scientific benchmark for strategies concerning varicella prevention and control.

The Impact of Universal Varicella Vaccination on Herpes Zoster Incidence in the United States: Comparison of Birth Cohorts Preceding and Following Varicella Vaccination Program Launch

When the US varicella vaccination program was introduced in 1995, its impacts on the epidemiology of herpes zoster (HZ) were not precisely known. We used a large claims database to examine HZ incidence in the US during 1998-2019 among persons aged ≥30 years (the prevaccine cohort, born before 1990), and aged 1-29 years (includes the postvaccine cohort, born since 1990). We defined incident HZ as the first instance of an outpatient or emergency department (ED) claim with an HZ diagnostic code. Additionally, we examined the proportion of HZ visits among all ED visits as a complementary method to assess for healthcare-seeking artifacts in the findings. In persons aged ≥30 years (prevaccine cohort), we observed age-specific increases in HZ incidence during the earlier study years, with decelerations in later years, starting in 2007 with oldest age groups. Similar patterns were seen when we examined HZ visits as a proportion of all ED visits. For persons aged 1-29 years, age-specific HZ incidence increased early in the study period for the oldest age groups who were born prevaccine, but later declined in a stepwise pattern once each age group was comprised of persons born in the postvaccine period. Our results, corroborated with previously published studies, do not support prior modeling predictions that the varicella vaccination program would increase HZ incidence among adult cohorts who previously experienced varicella. Our findings also suggest that continued declines in age-specific HZ incidence as varicella-vaccinated cohorts age are likely.

The Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccine: 25 Years of Postlicensure Experience in the United States

We summarize studies of varicella vaccine's effectiveness for prevention of varicella and lessons learned during the first 25 years of the varicella vaccination program in the United States. One dose of varicella vaccine provided moderate protection (82%-85%) against varicella of any severity and high protection (100%) against severe varicella, with some waning of protection over time. The 1-dose program (1995-2006) had a substantial impact on the incidence both of varicella and of severe outcomes (71%-90% decrease) although it did not prevent low-level community transmission and some outbreaks continued to occur in highly vaccinated populations. Two doses of varicella vaccine improved the vaccine's effectiveness by at least 10% against varicella of any severity, with further declines in the incidence both of varicella and of severe outcomes as well as in both number and size of outbreaks. There is no evidence for waning of the effectiveness of 2 doses of the vaccine.

Clinical Manifestations of Varicella: Disease Is Largely Forgotten, but It's Not Gone

After 25 years of varicella vaccination in the United States, classic varicella and its complications have become an uncommon occurrence. The clinical manifestation of varicella among vaccinated persons is usually modified, with fewer skin lesions, mostly maculopapular, and milder presentation. However, the potential for severe manifestations from varicella still exists among both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, and thus healthcare providers should keep varicella in the differential diagnosis of a maculopapular or vesicular rash. The prompt recognition and diagnosis of varicella is important because when confirmed, clinical and public health measures need to be taken swiftly.