How Many HIV infections may be averted by targeting primary infection in men who have sex with men? Quantification of changes in transmission-risk behavior, using an individual-based model

Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches

BACKGROUND

The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases.

RESULTS

We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks.

DISCUSSION

Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.

Evaluating the Evidence for More Frequent Than Annual HIV Screening of Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: Results From a Systematic Review and CDC Expert Consultation

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended in 2006 that sexually active gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) be screened for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) at least annually. A workgroup comprising CDC and external experts conducted a systematic review of the literature, including benefits, harms, acceptability, and feasibility of annual versus more frequent screening among MSM, to determine whether evidence was sufficient to change the current recommendation. Four consultations with managers of public and nonprofit HIV testing programs, clinics, and mathematical modeling experts were conducted to provide input on the programmatic and scientific evidence. Mathematical models predicted that more frequent than annual screening of MSM could prevent some new HIV infections and would be more cost-effective than annual screening, but this evidence was considered insufficient due to study design. Evidence supports CDC's current recommendation that sexually active MSM be screened at least annually. However, some MSM might benefit from more frequent screening. Future research should evaluate which MSM subpopulations would benefit most from more frequent HIV screening.

Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok

Introduction: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces HIV transmission. Despite increased ART coverage, incidence remains high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in many places. Acute HIV infection (AHI) is characterized by high viral replication and increased infectiousness. We estimated the feasible reduction in transmission by targeting MSM with AHI for early ART.

Methods: We recruited a cohort of 88 MSM with AHI in Bangkok, Thailand, who initiated ART immediately. A risk calculator based on viral load and reported behaviour, calibrated to Thai epidemiological data, was applied to estimate the number of onwards transmissions. This was compared with the expected number without early interventions.

Results: Forty of the MSM were in 4th-generation AHI stages 1 and 2 (4thG stage 1, HIV nucleic acid testing (NAT)+/4thG immunoassay (IA)-/3rdG IA–; 4thG stage 2, NAT+/4thG IA+/3rdG IA–) while 48 tested positive on third-generation IA but had negative or indeterminate western blot (4thG stage 3). Mean plasma HIV RNA was 5.62 log¹⁰ copies/ml. Any condomless sex in the four months preceding the study was reported by 83.7%, but decreased to 21.2% by 24 weeks on ART. After ART, 48/88 (54.6%) attained HIV RNA <50 copies/ml by week 8, increasing to 78/87 (89.7%), and 64/66 (97%) at weeks 24 and 48, respectively. The estimated number of onwards transmissions in the first year of infection would have been 27.3 (95% credible interval: 21.7–35.3) with no intervention, 8.3 (6.4–11.2) with post-diagnosis behaviour change only, 5.9 (4.4–7.9) with viral load reduction only and 3.1 (2.4–4.3) with both. The latter was associated with an 88.7% (83.8–91.1%) reduction in transmission.

Conclusions: Disproportionate HIV transmission occurs during AHI. Diagnosis of AHI with early ART initiation can substantially reduce onwards transmission.

Clinical and public health implications of acute and early HIV detection and treatment: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The unchanged global HIV incidence may be related to ignoring acute HIV infection (AHI). This scoping review examines diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications of identifying and treating persons with AHI.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, in addition to hand-review of key journals identifying research pertaining to AHI detection and treatment. We focused on the relative contribution of AHI to transmission and the diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications. We prioritized research from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published in the last fifteen years.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Extensive AHI research and limited routine AHI detection and treatment have begun in LMIC. Diagnostic challenges include ease-of-use, suitability for application and distribution in LMIC, and throughput for high-volume testing. Risk score algorithms have been used in LMIC to screen for AHI among individuals with behavioural and clinical characteristics more often associated with AHI. However, algorithms have not been implemented outside research settings. From a clinical perspective, there are substantial immunological and virological benefits to identifying and treating persons with AHI - evading the irreversible damage to host immune systems and seeding of viral reservoirs that occurs during untreated acute infection. The therapeutic benefits require rapid initiation of antiretrovirals, a logistical challenge in the absence of point-of-care testing. From a public health perspective, AHI diagnosis and treatment is critical to: decrease transmission via viral load reduction and behavioural interventions; improve pre-exposure prophylaxis outcomes by avoiding treatment initiation for HIV-seronegative persons with AHI; and, enhance partner services via notification for persons recently exposed or likely transmitting.

CONCLUSIONS

There are undeniable clinical and public health benefits to AHI detection and treatment, but also substantial diagnostic and logistical barriers to implementation and scale-up. Effective early ART initiation may be critical for HIV eradication efforts, but widespread use in LMIC requires simple and accurate diagnostic tools. Implementation research is critical to facilitate sustainable integration of AHI detection and treatment into existing health systems and will be essential for prospective evaluation of testing algorithms, point-of-care diagnostics, and efficacious and effective first-line regimens.

Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy

The WHO’s early-release guideline for antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV infection based on a recent trial conducted in 34 countries recommends starting treatment immediately upon an HIV diagnosis. Therefore, the test-and-treat strategy may become more widely used in an effort to scale up HIV treatment and curb further transmission. Here we examine behavioural determinants of HIV transmission and how heterogeneity in sexual behaviour influences the outcomes of this strategy. Using a deterministic model, we perform a systematic investigation into the effects of various mixing patterns in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM), stratified by partner change rates, on the elimination threshold and endemic HIV prevalence. We find that both the level of overdispersion in the distribution of the number of sexual partners and mixing between population subgroups have a large influence on endemic prevalence before introduction of ART and on possible long term effectiveness of ART. Increasing heterogeneity in risk behavior may lead to lower endemic prevalence levels, but requires higher coverage levels of ART for elimination. Elimination is only feasible for populations with a rather low degree of assortativeness of mixing and requires treatment coverage of almost 80% if rates of testing and treatment uptake by all population subgroups are equal. In this case, for fully assortative mixing and 80% coverage endemic prevalence is reduced by 57%. In the presence of heterogeneity in ART uptake, elimination is easier to achieve when the subpopulation with highest risk behavior is tested and treated more often than the rest of the population, and vice versa when it is less. The developed framework can be used to extract information on behavioral heterogeneity from existing data which is otherwise hard to determine from population surveys.

HIV is endemic in populations of MSM in Western countries. As ART reduces transmission risk, increased testing and treatment rates are expected to lower HIV incidence. However, concerns are that in MSM populations changing risk behavior may counteract the impact of ART on transmission. Using a mathematical model, we investigated how heterogeneity in sexual behavior influences the possible effects of a test-and-treat strategy on HIV prevalence and in particular the prospects of eliminating HIV from these populations. We demonstrated that behavioral heterogeneity plays an important role in determining the impact of ART on reducing HIV transmission. Knowledge of behavioral heterogeneity is key in setting intervention goals in populations of MSM.

Incorporating Acute HIV Screening into Routine HIV Testing at Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinics, and HIV Testing and Counseling Centers in Lilongwe, Malawi

Background and Objectives:

Integrating acute HIV-infection (AHI) testing into clinical settings is critical to prevent transmission, and realize potential treatment-as-prevention benefits. We evaluated acceptability of AHI testing and compared AHI prevalence at sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics and HIV testing and counseling (HTC) clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi.

Methods:

We conducted HIV RNA testing for HIV-seronegative patients visiting STI and HTC clinics. AHI was defined as positive RNA and negative/discordant rapid antibody tests. We evaluated demographic, behavioral, and transmission-risk differences between STI and HTC patients and assessed performance of a risk-score for targeted screening.

Results:

Nearly two-thirds (62.8%, 9280/14,755) of eligible patients consented to AHI testing. We identified 59 persons with AHI (prevalence = 0.64%)–a 0.9% case-identification increase. Prevalence was higher at STI [1.03% (44/4255)] than at HTC clinics [0.3% (15/5025), P < 0.01], accounting for 2.3% of new diagnoses vs 0.3% at HTC clinic. Median viral load (VL) was 758,050 copies per milliliter; 25% (15/59) had VL ≥10,000,000 copies per milliliter. Median VL was higher at STI (1,000,000 copies/mL) compared with HTC (153,125 copies/mL, P = 0.2). Among persons with AHI, those tested at STI clinics were more likely to report genital sores compared with those tested at HTC clinics (54.6% vs 6.7%, P < 0.01). The risk score algorithm performed well in identifying persons with AHI at HTC clinics (sensitivity = 73%, specificity = 89%).

Conclusions:

The majority of patients consented to AHI testing. AHI prevalence was substantially higher in STI clinics than HTC clinics. Remarkably high VLs and concomitant genital scores demonstrate the potential for transmission. Universal AHI screening at STI clinics, and targeted screening at HTC centers, should be considered.

The HIV treatment cascade in acutely infected people: informing global guidelines

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Acute and early HIV (AHI) is a pivotal time during HIV infection, yet there remain major shortfalls in diagnosis, linkage to care, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during AHI. We introduce an AHI-specific cascade, review recent evidence pertaining to the unique challenges of AHI, and discuss strategies for improving individual and public health outcomes.

RECENT FINDINGS

Presentation during AHI is common. Expanding use of fourth-generation testing and pooled nucleic acid amplification testing has led to improved AHI detection in resource-wealthy settings. Technologies capable of AHI diagnosis are rare in resource-limited settings; further development of point-of-care devices and utilization of targeted screening is needed. Rapid ART initiation during AHI limits reservoir seeding, preserves immunity, and prevents transmission. Reporting of AHI cascade outcomes is limited, but new evidence suggests that impressive rates of diagnosis, linkage to care, rapid ART initiation, and viral suppression can be achieved.

SUMMARY

With advancements in AHI diagnostics and strong evidence for the therapeutic and prevention benefits of ART initiated during AHI, improving AHI cascade outcomes is both crucial and feasible. HIV guidelines should recommend diagnostic algorithms capable of detecting AHI and prescribe rapid, universal ART initiation during AHI.