Transmission modeling and health systems: the case of TB in India

The WHO Global Tuberculosis 2021 Report - not so good news and turning the tide back to End TB

OBJECTIVE

To review the data presented in the 2021 WHO global TB report and discuss the current constraints in the global response.

INTRODUCTION AND METHODS

The WHO global TB reports, consolidate TB data from countries and provide up to date assessment of the global TB epidemic. We reviewed the data presented in the 2021 report.

RESULTS

We noted that the 2021 WHO global TB report presents a rather grim picture on the trajectory of the global epidemic of TB including a stagnation in the annual decline in TB incidence, a decline in TB notifications and an increase in estimated TB deaths. All the targets set at the 2018 United Nations High Level Meeting on TB were off track.

INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSION

The sub-optimal global performance on achieving TB control targets in 2020 is attributed to the on-going COVID-19 pandemic, however, TB programs were already off track well before the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that the pandemic amplified an already fragile global TB response. We emphasize that ending the global TB epidemic will require bold leadership, optimization of existing interventions, widespread coverage, addressing social determinants of TB and importantly mobilization of adequate funding required for TB care and prevention.

SeeTB: A novel alternative to sputum smear microscopy to diagnose tuberculosis in high burden countries

Microscopy-based tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis i.e. Ziehl-Neelsen screening still remains the primary diagnostic method in resource poor and high TB burden countries, however this method has poor sensitivity (~60%). Bringing three million TB patients who are left undiagnosed under the treatment has been a major focus as part of END-TB strategy across the world. We have developed a portable set-up called ‘SeeTB’ that converts a bright-field microscope into fluorescence microscope (FM) with minimal interventions. SeeTB, a total internal reflection-based fluorescence excitation system allows visualization of auramine-O stained bacilli efficiently with high signal-to-noise ratio. Along with the device, we have developed a sputum-processing reagent called ‘CLR’ that homogenizes and digests the viscous polymer matrix of sputum. We have compared the performance of SeeTB system in 237 clinical sputum samples along with FM, GeneXpert and liquid culture. In comparison with culture as gold standard, FM has sensitivity of 63.77% and SeeTB has improved sensitivity to 76.06%. In comparison with GeneXpert, FM has sensitivity of 73.91% while SeeTB has improved sensitivity to 85.51%. However, there is no significant change in the specificity between FM and SeeTB system. In short, SeeTB system offers the most realistic option for improved TB case identification in resource-limited settings.

The technological imperative in tuberculosis care and prevention in Vietnam

A monocausal bacteriological understanding of infectious disease orients tuberculosis control efforts towards antimicrobial interventions. A bias towards technological solutions can leave multistranded public health and social interventions largely neglected. In the context of globalising biomedical approaches to infectious disease control, this ethnography-inspired review article reflects upon the implementation of rapid diagnostic technology in low- and middle-income countries. Fieldwork observations in Vietnam provided a stimulus for a critical review of the global rollout of tuberculosis diagnostic technology. To address local needs in tuberculosis control, health managers in resource-poor settings are readily cooperating with international donors to deploy novel diagnostic technologies throughout national tuberculosis programme facilities. Increasing investment in new diagnostic technologies is predicated on the supposition that these interventions will ameliorate disease outcomes. However, suboptimal treatment control persists even when accurate diagnostic technologies are available, suggesting that promotion of singular technological solutions can distract from addressing systemic change, without which disease susceptibility, propagation of infection, detection gaps, diagnostic delays, and treatment shortfalls persist.

Effect of active case finding on dengue control: Implications from a mathematical model

Dengue control in India is a challenging task due to complex healthcare settings. In yesteryears, an amplification of dengue infections in India posed the need for introspection of existing dengue control policies. Prior understanding of the impacts of control interventions is necessary for their future implementation. In this paper, we propose and analyze a compartmental model of dengue to assess the impact of active case finding (ACF) on dengue disease transmission. Currently, primary prevention of dengue is possible only with vector control and personal protection from the bites of infected mosquitoes. Although a few experimental studies are performed to assess ACF in dengue disease, but this is the first attempt to represent and study the dynamics of disease using ACF as a control strategy. Local and global dynamics of the system are studied. We use sensitivity analysis to see the effects of controllable parameters of the model on the basic reproduction number and total number of infective population. We find that decrease in the biting rate of mosquitoes, and increase in the rate of hospitalization and/or notification, death rate of mosquitoes and ACF for asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals play crucial role for the reduction of disease prevalence. We calibrate our model to the yearly dengue cases in eight dengue endemic states of India. The results of our study show that ACF of symptomatic individuals will have significant effect on dengue case reduction but ACF of asymptomatic individuals cannot be ignored. Our findings indicate that the healthcare organizations must focus on ACF of symptomatic as well as asymptomatic individuals along with personal protection and mosquitoes control to achieve rapid reduction of dengue cases in India.

Bedaquiline- versus injectable-containing drug-resistant tuberculosis regimens: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) continues to be a major public health challenge with suboptimal treatment outcomes including well-documented treatment-related toxicities. We compared the cost-effectiveness of bedaquiline (BDQ) containing regimens with injectable containing regimens (short-course regimen [SCR] and long-course regiman [LCR]) in India, Russia, and South Africa.

METHODS

The analysis evaluated the direct costs of DR-TB treatment which included drugs, hospitalization, injectable-related adverse event costs, and other costs. Scenarios altered regimen costs, SCR/LCR ratio, and substitution rate between regimens (whether BDQ or injectable containing).

RESULTS

BDQ containing regimens are more cost effective based on cost per treatment success compared with injectable containing regimens, reducing these in SCR by 18-20% and in LCR by 49-54%. Average cost effectiveness ratios (ACERs) of BDQ containing regimens are lower. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) is negative. Exclusive use of BDQ containing regimens results in approximately 61,000 more patients treated successfully over 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Across all countries, BDQ containing regimens are dominant compared to injectable containing regimens, entailing lower treatment costs to achieve better clinical outcomes. This analysis can provide insight and support to local and global decision-makers and public health organizations to allocate efficiently resources improving patient and public health outcomes.