BIG DATA ANALYTICS AND PRECISION ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SYMPOSIUM: Data to decisions

Classification of Daily Body Weight Gains in Beef Calves Using Decision Trees, Artificial Neural Networks, and Logistic Regression

The aim of the present study was to compare the predictive performance of decision trees, artificial neural networks, and logistic regression used for the classification of daily body weight gains in beef calves. A total of 680 pure-breed Simmental and 373 Limousin cows from the largest farm in the West Pomeranian Province, whose calves were fattened between 2014 and 2016, were included in the study. Pre-weaning daily body weight gains were divided into two categories: A-equal to or lower than the weighted mean for each breed and sex and B-higher than the mean. Models were developed separately for each breed. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve on a test set for the best model (random forest) were 0.83, 0.67, 0.76, and 0.82 and 0.68, 0.86, 0.78, and 0.81 for the Limousin and Simmental breeds, respectively. The most important predictors were daily weight gains of the dam when she was a calf, daily weight gains of the first calf, sex of the third calf, milk yield at first lactation, birth weight of the third calf, dam birth weight, dam hip height, and second calving season. The selected machine learning models can be used quite effectively for the classification of calves based on their daily weight gains.

Multiparameter optimization system with DCNN in precision agriculture for advanced irrigation planning and scheduling based on soil moisture estimation

Agriculture is a distinct sector of a country's economy. In recent years, new patterns have evolved in the agricultural industry. In conjunction with sensor scaling down and precision agriculture, the field of remote sensor networks, such as the wireless sensor network (WSN), was developed. Its major purpose is to make horticultural operations simpler to identify, assess, and manage. This paper uses the proposed DCNN to predict soil moisture and plan irrigation for precision agriculture farmers to reduce water consumption used for cultivation and increase production yield by comparing water content during various stages of plant growth and integrating IoT applications into agriculture. It also optimizes the water level for future irrigation decisions to maintain crop growth and water stability. The data must be served and stored in the form of a grid view, according to Apriori and GRU (gated recurrent unit). Using numerous sensor and parameter modelling methodologies, this system assists in the prediction of irrigation planning based on irrigation needs. The predicted parameters include soil moisture, temperature, and humidity. This observed experimental data supports smart irrigation in crop production with a high yield and little water use. DCNN has a 98.5% experimental result accuracy rate and the MSE value is predicted in DCNN 99.25% of the time.

Evaluation of predictive models to determine total morbidity outcome of feedlot cattle based on cohort-level feed delivery data during the first 15 days on feed

Changes in feeding behavior and intake have been used to predict the onset of bovine respiratory disease in individual animals but have not been applied to cohort-level data. Correctly identifying high morbidity cohorts of cattle early in the feeding period could facilitate the administration of interventions to improve health and economic outcomes. The study objective was to determine the ability of feed delivery data from the first 15 days of feed to predict total feeding period morbidity. Data consisted of 518 cohorts (10 feedlots, 56,796 animals) of cattle of varying sex, age, arrival weight, and arrival time of year over a 2-year period. Overall cohort-level morbidity was classified into high (≥15% total morbidity) or low categories with 18.5% of cohorts having high morbidity. Five predictive models (advanced perceptron, decision forest, logistic regression, neural network, and boosted decision tree) were created to predict overall morbidity given cattle characteristics at arrival and feeding characteristics from the first 15 days. The dataset was split into training and testing subsets (75% and 25% of original, respectively), stratified by the outcome of interest. Predictive models were generated in Microsoft Azure using the training set and overall predictive performance was evaluated using the testing set. Performance in the testing set (n = 130) was measured based on final accuracy, sensitivity (Sn, the ability to accurately detect high morbidity cohorts), and specificity (Sp, the ability to accurately detect low morbidity cohorts). The decision forest had the highest Sp (97%) with the greatest ability to accurately identify low morbidity lots (103 of 106 identified correctly), but this model had low Sn (33%). The logistic regression and neural network had similar Sn (both 63%) and Sp (69% and 72%, respectively) with the best ability to correctly identify high morbidity cohorts (15 of 24 correctly identified). Predictor variables with the greatest importance in the predictive models included percent change in feed delivery between days and 4-day moving averages. The most frequent variable with a high level of importance among models was the percent change in feed delivered from d 2 to 3 after arrival. In conclusion, feed delivery data during the first 15 days on feed was a significant predictor of total cohort-level morbidity over the entire feeding period with changes in feed delivery providing important information.

ASAS-NANP symposium: mathematical modeling in animal nutrition: the progression of data analytics and artificial intelligence in support of sustainable development in animal science

A renewed interest in data analytics and decision support systems in developing automated computer systems is facilitating the emergence of hybrid intelligent systems by combining artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms with classical modeling paradigms such as mechanistic modeling (HIMM) and agent-based models (iABM). Data analytics have evolved remarkably, and the scientific community may not yet fully grasp the power and limitations of some tools. Existing statistical assumptions might need to be re-assessed to provide a more thorough competitive advantage in animal production systems towards sustainability. This paper discussed the evolution of data analytics from a competitive advantage perspective within academia and illustrated the combination of different advanced technological systems in developing HIMM. The progress of analytical tools was divided into three stages: collect and respond, predict and prescribe, and smart learning and policy making, depending on the level of their sophistication (simple to complicated analysis). The collect and respond stage is responsible for ensuring the data is correct and free of influential data points, and it represents the data and information phases for which data are cataloged and organized. The predict and prescribe stage results in gained knowledge from the data and comprises most predictive modeling paradigms, and optimization and risk assessment tools are used to prescribe future decision-making opportunities. The third stage aims to apply the information obtained in the previous stages to foment knowledge and use it for rational decisions. This stage represents the pinnacle of acquired knowledge that leads to wisdom, and AI technology is intrinsic. Although still incipient, HIMM and iABM form the forthcoming stage of competitive advantage. HIMM may not increase our ability to understand the underlying mechanisms controlling the outcomes of a system, but it may increase the predictive ability of existing models by helping the analyst explain more of the data variation. The scientific community still has some issues to be resolved, including the lack of transparency and reporting of AI that might limit code reproducibility. It might be prudent for the scientific community to avoid the shiny object syndrome (i.e., AI) and look beyond the current knowledge to understand the mechanisms that might improve productivity and efficiency to lead agriculture towards sustainable and responsible achievements.

Assessment of Machine Learning Models to Identify Port Jackson Shark Behaviours Using Tri-Axial Accelerometers

Movement ecology has traditionally focused on the movements of animals over large time scales, but, with advancements in sensor technology, the focus can become increasingly fine scale. Accelerometers are commonly applied to quantify animal behaviours and can elucidate fine-scale (<2 s) behaviours. Machine learning methods are commonly applied to animal accelerometry data; however, they require the trial of multiple methods to find an ideal solution. We used tri-axial accelerometers (10 Hz) to quantify four behaviours in Port Jackson sharks (Heterodontus portusjacksoni): two fine-scale behaviours (<2 s)-(1) vertical swimming and (2) chewing as proxy for foraging, and two broad-scale behaviours (>2 s-mins)-(3) resting and (4) swimming. We used validated data to calculate 66 summary statistics from tri-axial accelerometry and assessed the most important features that allowed for differentiation between the behaviours. One and two second epoch testing sets were created consisting of 10 and 20 samples from each behaviour event, respectively. We developed eight machine learning models to assess their overall accuracy and behaviour-specific accuracy (one classification tree, five ensemble learners and two neural networks). The support vector machine model classified the four behaviours better when using the longer 2 s time epoch (F-measure 89%; macro-averaged F-measure: 90%). Here, we show that this support vector machine (SVM) model can reliably classify both fine- and broad-scale behaviours in Port Jackson sharks.

Predicting dairy cattle heat stress using machine learning techniques

The objectives of the study were to use a heat stress scoring system to evaluate the severity of heat stress on dairy cows using different heat abatement techniques. The scoring system ranged from 1 to 4, where 1 = no heat stress; 2 = mild heat stress; 3 = severe heat stress; and 4 = moribund. The accuracy of the scoring system was then predicted using 3 machine learning techniques: logistic regression, Gaussian naïve Bayes, and random forest. To predict the accuracy of the scoring system, these techniques used factors including temperature-humidity index, respiration rate, lying time, lying bouts, total steps, drooling, open-mouth breathing, panting, location in shade or sprinklers, somatic cell score, reticulorumen temperature, hygiene body condition score, milk yield, and milk fat and protein percent. Three different treatments, namely, portable shade structure, portable polyvinyl chloride pipe sprinkler system, or control with no heat abatement, were considered, where each treatment was replicated 3 times with 3 second-trimester lactating cows. Results indicate that random forest outperformed the other 2 methods, with respect to both accuracy and precision, in predicting the sprinkler group's score. Both logistic regression and random forest were consistent in predicting scores for control, shade, and combined groups. The mean probability of predicting non-heat-stressed cows was highest for cows in the sprinkler group. Finally, the logistic regression method worked best for predicting heat-stressed cows in control, shade, and combined. The insights gained from these results could aid dairy producers to detect heat stress before it becomes severe, which could decrease the negative effects of heat stress, such as milk loss.

Comparing regression, naive Bayes, and random forest methods in the prediction of individual survival to second lactation in Holstein cattle

In this study, we compared multiple logistic regression, a linear method, to naive Bayes and random forest, 2 nonlinear machine-learning methods. We used all 3 methods to predict individual survival to second lactation in dairy heifers. The data set used for prediction contained 6,847 heifers born between January 2012 and June 2013, and had known survival outcomes. Each animal had 50 genomic estimated breeding values available at birth and up to 65 phenotypic variables that accumulated over time. Survival was predicted at 5 moments in life: at birth, at 18 mo, at first calving, at 6 wk after first calving, and at 200 d after first calving. The data sets were randomly split into 70% training and 30% testing sets to evaluate model performance for 20-fold validation. The methods were compared for accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC) value, contrasts between groups for the prediction outcomes, and increase in surviving animals in a practical scenario. At birth and 18 mo, all methods had overlapping performance; no method significantly outperformed the other. At first calving, 6 wk after first calving, and 200 d after first calving, random forest and naive Bayes had overlapping performance, and both machine-learning methods outperformed multiple logistic regression. Overall, naive Bayes has the highest average AUC at all decision points up to 200 d after first calving. Random forest had the highest AUC at 200 d after first calving. All methods obtained similar increases in survival in the practical scenario. Despite this, the methods appeared to predict the survival of individual heifers differently. All methods improved over time, but the changes in mean model outcomes for surviving and non-surviving animals differed by method. Furthermore, the correlations of individual predictions between methods ranged from r = 0.417 to r = 0.700; the lowest correlations were at first calving for all methods. In short, all 3 methods were able to predict survival at a population level, because all methods improved survival in a practical scenario. However, depending on the method used, predictions for individual animals were quite different between methods.

Leveraging Available Resources and Stakeholder Involvement for Improved Productivity of African Livestock in the Era of Genomic Breeding

The African continent is home to diverse populations of livestock breeds adapted to harsh environmental conditions with more than 70% under traditional systems of management. Animal productivity is less than optimal in most cases and is faced with numerous challenges including limited access to adequate nutrition and disease management, poor institutional capacities and lack of adequate government policies and funding to develop the livestock sector. Africa is home to about 1.3 billion people and with increasing demand for animal proteins by an ever growing human population, the current state of livestock productivity creates a significant yield gap for animal products. Although a greater section of the population, especially those living in rural areas depend largely on livestock for their livelihoods; the potential of the sector remains underutilized and therefore unable to contribute significantly to economic development and social wellbeing of the people. With current advances in livestock management practices, breeding technologies and health management, and with inclusion of all stakeholders, African livestock populations can be sustainably developed to close the animal protein gap that exists in the continent. In particular, advances in gene technologies, and application of genomic breeding in many Western countries has resulted in tremendous gains in traits like milk production with the potential that, implementation of genomic selection and other improved practices (nutrition, healthcare, etc.) can lead to rapid improvement in traits of economic importance in African livestock populations. The African livestock populations in the context of this review are limited to cattle, goat, pig, poultry, and sheep, which are mainly exploited for meat, milk, and eggs. This review examines the current state of livestock productivity in Africa, the main challenges faced by the sector, the role of various stakeholders and discusses in-depth strategies that can enable the application of genomic technologies for rapid improvement of livestock traits of economic importance.