Temporal Correlation Between Urban Microclimate, Vector Mosquito Abundance, and Dengue Cases

Factors Contributing to In-Hospital Mortality in Dengue: Insights from National Surveillance Data in Mexico (2020-2024)

This study aimed to identify the factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality in laboratory-confirmed dengue cases from 2020 to mid-2024. A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted in Mexico and data from 18,436 participants were analyzed. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), estimated using generalized linear regression models, were used to evaluate the factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality risk. The overall case-fatality rate was 17.5 per 1000. In the multiple model, compared to dengue virus (DENV) 1 infections, DENV-2 (RR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.15-2.86) and DENV-3 (RR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.19-2.92) were associated with increased mortality risk. Patient characteristics, such as increasing age (RR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), type 2 diabetes mellitus (RR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.45-2.96), and chronic kidney disease (RR = 3.35, 95% CI 2.03-5.51), were also associated with an increased risk of a fatal outcome. We documented the influence of both the virus and individual susceptibility on mortality risk, underscoring the need for a comprehensive public health strategy for dengue.

Microclimate factors related to dengue virus burden clusters in two endemic towns of Mexico

In dengue-endemic areas, transmission control is limited by the difficulty of achieving sufficient coverage and sustainability of interventions. To maximize the effectiveness of interventions, areas with higher transmission could be identified and prioritized. The aim was to identify burden clusters of Dengue virus (DENV) infection and evaluate their association with microclimatic factors in two endemic towns from southern Mexico. Information from a prospective population cohort study (2·5 years of follow-up) was used, microclimatic variables were calculated from satellite information, and a cross-sectional design was conducted to evaluate the relationship between the outcome and microclimatic variables in the five surveys. Spatial clustering was observed in specific geographic areas at different periods. Both, land surface temperature (aPR 0·945; IC95% 0·895-0·996) and soil humidity (aPR 3·018; IC95% 1·013-8·994), were independently associated with DENV burden clusters. These findings can help health authorities design focused dengue surveillance and control activities in dengue endemic areas.

Fine-scale adaptive divergence and population genetic structure of Aedes aegypti in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines

BACKGROUND

The adaptive divergence of Aedes aegypti populations to heterogeneous environments can be a driving force behind the recent expansion of their habitat distribution and outbreaks of dengue disease in urbanized areas. In this study, we investigated the population genomics of Ae. aegypti at a regional scale in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

METHODS

We used the Pool-Seq double digestion restriction-site association DNA sequencing (ddRAD-Seq) approach to generate a high number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), with the aim to determine local adaptation and compare the population structure with 11 microsatellite markers. A total of 217 Ae. aegypti individuals from seven female and seven male populations collected from Metropolitan Manila were used in the assays.

RESULTS

We detected 65,473 SNPs across the populations, of which 76 were non-neutral SNPs. Of these non-neutral SNPs, the multivariate regression test associated 50 with eight landscape variables (e.g. open space, forest, etc.) and 29 with five climate variables (e.g. air temperature, humidity, etc.) (P-value range 0.005-0.045) in female and male populations separately. Male and female populations exhibited contrasting spatial divergence, with males exhibiting greater divergence than females, most likely reflecting the different dispersal abilities of male and female mosquitoes. In the comparative analysis of the same Ae. aegypti individuals, the pairwise FST values of 11 microsatellite markers were lower than those of the neutral SNPs, indicating that the neutral SNPs generated via pool ddRAD-Seq were more sensitive in terms of detecting genetic differences between populations at fine-spatial scales.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study demonstrates the utility of pool ddRAD-Seq for examining genetic differences in Ae. aegypti populations in areas at fine-spatial scales that could inform vector control programs such as Wolbachia-infected mosquito mass-release programs. This in turn would provide information on mosquito population dispersal patterns and the potential barriers to mosquito movement within and around the release area. In addition, the potential of environmental adaptability observed in Ae. aegypti could help population control efforts.

First report on evaluation of commercial eugenol and piperine against Aedes aegypti L (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae: Mortality, detoxifying enzyme, and histopathological changes in the midgut

Dengue fever is a worldwide public health problem, and efforts to eradicate it have focused on controlling the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti. This study aims to assess the toxicity and effect of commercial eugenol and piperine on Ae. aegypti larvae through enzyme detoxification and histopathological changes in the midgut. Laboratory-reared Ae. aegypti larvae were treated with various concentrations of commercial eugenol and piperine and observed after 24, 48, and 72 h. Biochemical methods were used to assess detoxification enzyme activity for acetylcholinesterase, glutathione S-transferase, and oxidase, and changes in the midgut were examined using routine histological examination. In terms of larvicidal activity, piperine exceeded eugenol. Piperine and eugenol had LC50 and LC90 values of 3.057 and 5.543 μM, respectively, and 6.421 and 44.722 μM at 24 h. Piperine and eugenol reduced oxidase activity significantly (p < 0.05), but increased acetylcholinesterase and glutathione S-transferase activity significantly (p < 0.05). After being exposed to piperine and eugenol, the food bolus and peritrophic membrane ruptured, the epithelial layer was interrupted and irregular, the epithelial cells shrank and formed irregularly, and the microvilli became irregular in shape. Commercial piperine and eugenol behave as potential larvicides, with processes involving altered detoxifying enzymes, specifically decreased oxidase function and increased GST activity, as well as midgut histological abnormalities.

Impact of regional climate change on the mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in a tropical island environment: La Réunion

The recent expansion of Aedes albopictus across continents in both tropical and temperate regions and the exponential growth of dengue cases over the past 50 years represent a significant risk to human health. Although climate change is not the only factor responsible for the increase and spread of dengue cases worldwide, it might increase the risk of disease transmission at global and regional scale. Here we show that regional and local variations in climate can induce differential impacts on the abundance of Ae. albopictus. We use the instructive example of Réunion Island with its varied climatic and environmental conditions and benefiting from the availability of meteorological, climatic, entomological and epidemiological data. Temperature and precipitation data based on regional climate model simulations (3 km × 3 km) are used as inputs to a mosquito population model for three different climate emission scenarios. Our objective is to study the impact of climate change on the life cycle dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the 2070-2100 time horizon. Our results show the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on Ae. albopictus abundance as a function of elevation and geographical subregion. At low-elevations areas, decreasing precipitation is expected to have a negative impact on environmental carrying capacity and, consequently, on Ae. albopictus abundance. At mid- and high-elevations, decreasing precipitation is expected to be counterbalanced by a significant warming, leading to faster development rates at all life stages, and consequently increasing the abundance of this important dengue vector in 2070-2100.

Arbovirus Transmission Predictions Are Affected by Both Temperature Data Source and Modeling Methodologies across Cities in Colombia

Weather variables has been described as major drivers of vector proliferation and arbovirus transmission. Among them, temperature has consistently been found to be impactful in transmission dynamics, and models that incorporate temperature have been widely used to evaluate and forecast transmission or arboviruses like dengue, zika, or chikungunya virus. Further, there is growing evidence of the importance of micro-environmental temperatures in driving transmission of Aedes aegypti-borne viruses, as these mosquitoes tend to live within domiciles. Yet there is still a considerable gap in our understanding of how accounting for micro-environmental temperatures in models varies from the use of other widely-used, macro-level temperature measures. This effort combines field-collected data of both indoor and outdoor household associated temperatures and weather station temperature data from three Colombian cities to describe the relationship between the measures representing temperature at the micro- and macro-levels. These data indicate that weather station data may not accurately capture the temperature profiles of indoor micro-environments. However, using these data sources, the basic reproductive number for arboviruses was calculated by means of three modeling efforts to investigate whether temperature measure differences translated to differential transmission predictions. Across all three cities, it was determined that the modeling method was more often impactful rather than the temperature data-source, though no consistent pattern was immediately clear. This suggests that temperature data sources and modeling methods are important for precision in arbovirus transmission predictions, and more studies are needed to parse out this complex interaction.

Limited Effect of Ground Floor Fogging on Mosquito Distribution in High-Rise Condominia

Fogging with insecticides is one of the main control measures for adult mosquito populations employed in countries that are affected by dengue. In many such countries, urban communities are increasingly characterised by high-density residence in high-rise condominia. Although fogging is typically applied at the ground level, its efficacy in three-dimensional urban environments is poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effect of fogging on vector mosquito distribution and abundance in high-rise condominia by conducting a before-after fogging survey. We showed that although mosquitoes were significantly concentrated at the lower levels in high-rise condominia, they were found throughout the three-dimensional environments. Fogging did not significantly alter this distribution or abundance pattern across any floor level. Thus, any fogging effect was short-lived as mosquito populations recovered within a few days before the subsequent scheduled treatment. In addition, increasing fogging frequency within practicable limits did not prolong the intended control effect. As urban mosquitoes are increasingly insusceptible to fogging due to insecticide resistance and vertical avoidance, this study demonstrates the need to implement other mosquito control strategies for high-rise condominia to manage mosquito populations.

Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO).

FINDINGS

The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95-1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be "sufficient" for high temperatures but "limited" for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income.

INTERPRETATION

High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Dengue Risk Forecast with Mosquito Vector: A Multicomponent Fusion Approach Based on Spatiotemporal Analysis

Dengue as an acute infectious disease threatens global public health and has sparked broad research interest. However, existing studies generally ignore the spatial dependencies involved in dengue forecast, and consideration of temporal periodicity is absent. In this work, we propose a spatiotemporal component fusion model (STCFM) to solve the dengue risk forecast issue. Considering that mosquitoes are an important vector of dengue transmission, we introduce feature factors involving mosquito abundance and spatiotemporal lags to model temporal trends and spatial distributions separately on the basis of statistical properties. Specifically, we conduct multiscale modeling of temporal dependencies to enhance the forecast capability of relevant periods by capturing the historical variation patterns of the data across different segments in the temporal dimension. In the spatial dimension, we quantify the multivariate spatial correlation analysis as additional features to strengthen the spatial feature representation and adopt the ConvLSTM model to learn spatial dependencies adequately. The final forecast results are obtained by stacking strategy fusion in ensemble learning. We conduct experiments on real dengue datasets. The results indicate that STCFM improves prediction accuracy through effective spatiotemporal feature representations and outperforms candidate models with a reasonable component construction strategy.