Risk assessment for conventional diesel exhaust (before 1990) and lung cancer in a cohort of miners

Diesel exhaust in the latter half of the 20th century has been found to be a lung carcinogen. Conventional diesel emissions continue in the transportation, mining, construction, and farming industries. From the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study, a public-use dataset was used to calculate the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer associated with diesel exposure (1947-1997). Excess rates of lung cancer mortality associated with respirable elemental carbon (REC) and possible other mining exposures (e.g., oil mists, explosives emissions) were investigated using Poisson regression methods. Lung cancer mortality declined with increasing employment duration while increasing with cumulative REC and non-diesel exposures, suggesting a strong worker survivor effect. Attenuation of the REC effect was observed with increasing cumulative exposure. After adjustment for employment duration, the excess rate ratio for lung cancer mortality was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.35-0.99) for a 10-year lagged exposure to 200 μg/m3 REC, a typical below-ground exposure in the study mines. At exposures of 200, 10, and 1 μg/m3 REC, the estimated excess lifetime risks, respectively, were 119, 43, and 8.7 per thousand. Analysis of an inception cohort hired after dieselization commenced produced smaller and less certain estimates of lifetime risk. From exposures to conventional diesel engine exhaust common in occupational groups in the past, the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer was more than 5%. Ambient REC exposures in the general population were estimated to confer lifetime risks of 0.14 to 14 per thousand, depending on assumptions made.

Diesel engine emissions: are they no longer tolerable?

Emissions from diesel engines contain several hundred chemical compounds, which are emitted partly as gas and partly as particles. The composition of diesel exhaust and its concentrations in air has changed significantly over time, to the extent that now there is a distinction between "traditional" and "new technology" diesel emissions. New technology diesel engines comply with emissions from EURO 3 vehicles and higher. Starting with EURO 5, a significant further reduction of particle emissions has been achieved by increased temperature, which, however, lead to increased emissions of NO_x and exceeded the NO₂ emission limit. To overcome this problem, some car manufacturers installed illegal software that detected the vehicle test bench operation, resulting in low emissions during the test cycle. Detection of such devices in 2015 led to the "Diesel scandal". In 2017 the worldwide harmonized light vehicles test procedure (WLTP) was introduced for new cars, which simulates emissions under different driving conditions. It became mandatory for certification of all new vehicles by September 2018. In addition, fleet CO₂ emissions have been introduced for all cars, requiring that by 2020 95% of each manufacturer's passenger car must meet the CO₂ emission target of 95 mg/km, and by 2021 100% of the fleet. All these regulations significantly reduced the emissions of diesel- and gasoline-driven cars, which since the introduction of the EURO 6 regulation in 2014 are almost similar for both. Since the energy efficiency of diesel motors is up to 20% higher than that of gasoline-driven cars resulting in up to 20% lower CO₂ emission, there is no reason to question the future use of diesel engines. These regulations apply for new cars. However, air concentrations at sampling points close to streets with high traffic still exceed the limit values especially for NO₂. In several cities this led to restrictions for passenger cars of EURO 5 and below. Since concentrations close to streets are not relevant to evaluate the long-term exposure of the population, these measures are highly debatable.

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study provides no evidence for an increase in risk for lung cancer in miners exposed to diesel engine emissions

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study is unquestionably the most suitable data material to date to examine a possible link between diesel engine emissions and lung cancer risk. But the results do not appear to be consistent in themselves. The crucial methodological problem in this study, however, has yet to be discovered, to which the lack of any description of age related information (year of birth, year of hire, year of first exposure, year of death) for the cohort as well as for the cases might have contributed. This information is important to understand the flaws in the analysis. It turns out that the year of birth is associated with the exposure, i.e. with the chance to be exposed over a certain period of time as well as with the chance to be an ever-smoker. A further important issue for the interpretation of the results is the validity of the data on smoking, which are mainly obtained from next of kin for decedents up to 50 years after death. Taking all these aspects into account, it can be concluded that only the SMR-analysis can be considered from all published results.

A critical review of the relationship between occupational exposure to diesel emissions and lung cancer risk

In 2012, a working group of the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified diesel exhaust (DE) as a human carcinogen (Group 1). This decision was primarily based on the findings of the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS). The disparity between the results of various methodological approaches applied to the DEMS led to several critical commentaries. An expert panel was subsequently set up by the Health Effects Institute to evaluate the DEMS results, together with a large study in the trucking industry. The panel concluded that both studies provided a useful basis for quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of DE exposure. However, the results of both studies were non-definitive as the studies suffer from several methodological shortcomings. We conducted a critical review of the studies used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group to evaluate the relationship between DE and lung cancer. The aim was to assess whether the available studies support the statement of a causal relationship and, secondarily if they could be used for QRA. Our review highlights several methodological flaws in the studies, amongst them overadjustment bias, selection bias, and confounding bias. The conclusion from our review is that the currently published studies provide little evidence for a definite causal link between DE exposure and lung cancer risk. Based on two studies in miners, the DEMS and the German Potash Miners study, QRA may be conducted. However, the DEMS data should be reanalyzed in advance to avoid bias that affects the presently published risk estimates.

Diesel engine exhaust and lung cancer mortality: time-related factors in exposure and risk

To develop a quantitative exposure-response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC-associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure-response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA.