Familial Risks and Mortality in Second Primary Cancers in Melanoma

SURVIVAL IN MELANOMA IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIES INTO THE ERA OF TARGETED AND IMMUNOLOGICAL THERAPIES

OBJECTIVES

Survival in melanoma has been increasing and the most recent interest is to observe the population-level impact of novel targeted therapies and immunotherapy. We analysed survival in melanoma from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) over a 50-years period (1971-2020).

METHODS

Relative 1-5/1- and 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for the years 1971-2020. We estimated annual changes in survival rates and determined significant breaking points for trends.

RESULTS

Survival in melanoma has reached the point where 1-year survival is approaching 100% (men 97.5-98.6%, women 98.4-99.3%, depending on the country) and 5-year survival is 93% for men (91.5-95.2%) and 96% for women (95.3-97.2%). The highest survival figures were for DK. Significant increases in both 1- and 5-year survival were observed in most countries even towards the end of the follow-up (from 2006 to 2010-2011-2015 and further to 2016-2020).

CONCLUSIONS

The main increase in melanoma survival took place up to year 1990, which was probably largely achieved through successful population campaigns for sun protection and programmes for early detection of lesions. Survival increased again after year 2000 up to the last period 2016-2020. This late development coincided with the introduction of targeted therapies using BRAF and BRAF/MEK inhibitors, and towards the end of the time period availability of checkpoint inhibitors. The success of melanoma treatment in DK was mostly likely due to the efficient use of modern therapies and to the centralised treatment for metastatic disease.

Melanoma survivors are at increased risk for second primary keratinocyte carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Recent large cohorts have reported that melanoma survivors are at risk of developing second keratinocyte carcinoma (KC). However, the detailed proportion and risk are still unknown. We aimed to comprehensively analyze the risk of developing keratinocyte carcinoma after primary melanoma.

METHODS

We conducted systematic literature research in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library published prior to September 13, 2021. Proportion and standardized incidence ratios (SIR) with its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled for assessing the risk.

RESULTS

A total of 15 studies encompassing 168,286 patients were included in our analysis. The pooled proportions of melanoma survivors that developed a subsequent basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and KC were 4.11% (95% CI, 1.32-6.90), 2.54% (95% CI, 1.78-3.31), and 5.45% (95% CI, 3.06-7.84), respectively. The risks of developing a second BCC, SCC, and KC in melanoma survivors were 5.3-fold (SIR 5.30; 95% CI, 4.87-5.77), 2.6-fold (SIR 2.58; 95% CI, 1.33-5.04), and 6.2-fold (SIR 6.17; 95% CI, 3.66-10.39) increased in comparison with the general population. Both fixed effects and random effects models were applied in conducting meta-analysis and reached a consistent conclusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated melanoma survivors are at elevated risk of experiencing second primary BCC and SCC, which suggested the significance of surveillance for second primary KC and efforts for prevention in patients with a history of melanoma.

Characteristics, Prognosis, and Competing Risk Nomograms of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma: Evidence for Pigmentary Disorders

PURPOSE

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) always presents as a complex disease process with poor prognosis. The objective of the present study was to explore the influence of solitary or multiple cancers on the prognosis of patients with CMM to better understand the landscape of CMM.

METHODS

We reviewed the records of CMM patients between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The cumulative incidence function was used to represent the probabilities of death. A novel causal inference method was leveraged to explore the risk difference to death between different types of CMM, and nomograms were built based on competing risk models.

RESULTS

The analysis cohort contained 165,043 patients with CMM as the first primary malignancy. Patients with recurrent CMM and multiple primary tumors had similar overall survival status (p = 0.064), while their demographics and cause-specific death demonstrated different characteristics than those of patients with solitary CMM (p < 0.001), whose mean survival times are 75.4 and 77.3 months and 66.2 months, respectively. Causal inference was further applied to unveil the risk difference of solitary and multiple tumors in subgroups, which was significantly different from the total population (p < 0.05), and vulnerable groups with high risk of death were identified. The established competing risk nomograms had a concordance index >0.6 on predicting the probabilities of death of CMM or other cancers individually across types of CMM.

CONCLUSION

Patients with different types of CMM had different prognostic characteristics and different risk of cause-specific death. The results of this study are of great significance in identifying the high risk of cause-specific death, enabling targeted intervention in the early period at both the population and individual levels.

Risk of Second Malignant Neoplasm in Familial Non-Medullary Thyroid Cancer Patients

INTRODUCTION

Survival rates in patients with non-medullary thyroid carcinoma (NMTC) are high, increasing the possibility to develop a second malignant neoplasm (SMN). Many studies investigated the relationship between increased risk of SMN in NMTC patients treated with radioiodine, but few data are available about the impact of family history (FH) of thyroid cancer on SMN risk.

PURPOSE

To assess the risk of SMN in a large cohort of sporadic and familial NMTC using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied 918 NMTC patients (73.9% female patients) followed for a median follow-up of 9 years. In 798/918 (86.9%) patients, NMTC was sporadic, while the remaining 120 (13.1%) were familial NMTC (FNMTC).

RESULTS

We identified 119/918 (13%) patients with SMN in association with NMTC. NMTCs had an increased risk of SMN when compared to the general population (SIR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.5). The rate of SMN for all sites was significantly higher in familial compared to sporadic NMTC (20% versus 11.9%, p = 0.01), primarily driven by families with more than two affected members. The risk of SMN was remarkably higher for breast cancer, especially in familial cases (SIR 22.03, 95% CI 14.4-41.2) compared to sporadic cases (SIR:17, 95% CI 11.9-24.6).

CONCLUSIONS

NMTC patients have a higher risk of SMN compared to the general population and this risk is much higher in patients with FNMTC. This observation raises the hypothesis that genetic risk factors for a first cancer may predispose to SMN, especially among individuals with familial clustering of the same or other tumors.

Types of second primary cancer influence overall survival in cutaneous melanoma

BACKGROUND

Favorable survival in malignant cutaneous melanoma (melanoma) has increased the likelihood of second primary cancer (SPC). We assess the influence of patient characteristics at diagnosis of first melanoma and the type of SPC (second melanoma and other SPC) on overall survival.

METHODS

We used the Swedish Cancer Registry data to assess overall survival in melanoma for the period 1990 to 2015. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with Cox regression models by considering SPC diagnosis as a time-dependent variable.

RESULTS

A total of 46,726 patients were diagnosed with melanoma, and 15.3% of them developed SPC, among which, two thirds were other SPCs. Second melanomas were diagnosed early (31% during the first year) compared to non-melanoma SPCs (9.5%). Survival for women with second melanoma or other SPC (56 and 21% alive after 25 years of follow-up, respectively) exceeded the male rates (21 and 10%, respectively) but all these figures were lower than for females (60% alive) or males (48%) without SPC. Time dependent analysis showed vastly increased HRs for cancer types that are fatal also as first cancers, but SPC-specific HRs remained relatively uniform, irrespective of SPC diagnosed soon or late after first melanoma. In early-onset melanoma, SPC diagnosis after 10 years may not negatively influence overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

As the overall survival of patients with many types of SPCs is unfavorable, advice about health lifestyle should benefit smoking patients and early detection methods may be recommended for SPCs of the breast, prostate and colorectum.

Familial Risks and Proportions Describing Population Landscape of Familial Cancer

Simple Summary

Familial cancer can be defined through the occurrence of the same cancer in two or more family members. Hereditary cancer is a narrower definition of high-risk familial aggregation through identified predisposing genes. The absence of correlation between spouses for risk of most cancers, particularly those not related to tobacco smoking or solar exposure, suggests that familial cancers are mainly due to genetic causes. The aim of the present study was to define the frequency and increased risk for familial cancer. Data on 31 of the most common cancers were obtained from the Swedish Family-Cancer Database and familial relative risks (SIRs) were estimated between persons with or without family history of the same cancer in first-degree relatives. Practically all cancers showed a familial risk, with an SIR most commonly around two, or a doubling of the risk because of family history.

Abstract

Background: Familial cancer can be defined through the occurrence of the same cancer in two or more family members. We describe a nationwide landscape of familial cancer, including its frequency and the risk that it conveys, by using the largest family database in the world with complete family structures and medically confirmed cancers. Patients/methods: We employed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) to estimate familial risks for concordant cancer among first-degree relatives using the Swedish Cancer Registry from years 1958 through 2016. Results: Cancer risks in a 20–84 year old population conferred by affected parents or siblings were about two-fold compared to the risk for individuals with unaffected relatives. For small intestinal, testicular, thyroid and bone cancers and Hodgkin disease, risks were higher, five-to-eight-fold. Novel familial associations included adult bone, lip, pharyngeal, and connective tissue cancers. Familial cancers were found in 13.2% of families with cancer; for prostate cancer, the proportion was 26.4%. High-risk families accounted for 6.6% of all cancer families. Discussion/Conclusion: High-risk family history should be exceedingly considered for management, including targeted genetic testing. For the major proportion of familial clustering, where genetic testing may not be feasible, medical and behavioral intervention should be indicated for the patient and their family members, including screening recommendations and avoidance of carcinogenic exposure.

Survival and medical costs of melanoma patients with subsequent cancer diagnoses: A South Korean population-based retrospective cohort study

Aim

Subsequent cancers (SCs) after melanoma diagnosis further increases the risks of mortality and medical costs. This population‐based analysis aimed to evaluate risk factors for SC, mortality, and medical costs of melanoma patients with SC.

Methods

A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using a nationwide claims database during 2002‐2017 in South Korea. SC was defined as having other types of cancer diagnoses other than subsequent melanoma during‐up to 5 years after melanoma diagnosis. Melanoma patients were divided into patients with and without SC, and the overall and subgroup survival rates, the risk of developing SC, and the total medical costs were analyzed using a Kaplan–Meier method and regressions.

Results

A total of 3740 melanoma patients were included in the analysis (mean age, 62.3 ± 15.4 y; 47.2% men), and 2273 patients (1157 within 2 months, 756 after 2 months of melanoma diagnosis) had SC. Higher Charlson comorbidity index score and male sex significantly increased the risk of developing SC. Five‐year survival rate and cumulative medical costs were 62.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.8‐63.9) and $21,413, respectively, in all patients. Patients with SC diagnosed after 2 months showed the lowest survival rate of 47.8% (95% CI, 44.3‐51.4) and the highest costs of $27,081, showing a mortality hazard ratio of 1.65 (range, 1.46‐1.86) and a cost ratio of 1.189 (range, 1.112‐1.271) compared with those without SC.

Conclusion

This study presented survival outcomes and medical costs in melanoma patients and confirmed that SC after the first diagnosis of melanoma significantly increased disease burden in terms of mortality and medical costs.

Rate differences between first and second primary cancers may outline immune dysfunction as a key risk factor

Background

Many cancers are increased in immunosuppressed patients and evidence is accumulating that immune dysfunction may be a contributing risk factor for second primary cancers (SPCs). The aim of this study was to explore the potential influence of immune mechanisms in SPC.

Methods

We used the Swedish Cancer Registry (1990‐2015) to select 13 male and 14 female first primary cancers (FPCs) that are known to be related to immune suppression. We assessed relative risks (RRs) for any of these as concordant (same first and second cancer) and discordant FPC‐SPC pairs. Hierarchical clustering of significant RRs was performed for cancers as FPC and SPC.

Results

Concordant risks for SPCs were excessive in men and women for nasal (RRs 59.3 for men and 150.6 for women), tongue/mouth (51.7 and 100.8), and lip (32.4 and 61.2) cancers. Heatmaps showed that some cancers, such as skin cancer, tongue/mouth cancers, and non‐Hodgkin lymphoma had multiple bidirectional associations as FPC and SPC. Nasal cancer and chronic lymphocytic leukemia had associations mainly as FPC while liver and kidney cancers showed most associations as SPC.

Conclusions

Immune dysfunction may be a plausible contributing factor for most of the associations, which calls for experimental verification.

Incidence Differences Between First Primary Cancers and Second Primary Cancers Following Skin Squamous Cell Carcinoma as Etiological Clues

Background

Most literature on second primary cancers (SPCs) focuses on possible factors, which may increase the risk of these cancers, and little attention has been paid for the overall incidence differences between first primary cancers (FPCs) and same SPCs. We wanted to compare the incidence rates for all common cancers when these were diagnosed as FPCs and SPCs after invasive and in situ squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin, which are usually treated by surgery only.

Methods

Cancers were identified from the Swedish Cancer Registry from the years 1990 through to 2015, and they included, in addition to skin cancers, 20 male cancers totaling 484,850 patients and 22 female cancers totaling 452,909 patients. Standardized incidence rates and relative risks (RRs) were calculated for sex-specific common cancers as FPC and as SPC after skin SCC. Spearman rank correlations were used in the analysis of incidence ranking of FPC and SPC.

Results

Of total, 29,061 men and 23,533 women developed invasive SCC and 27,842 men and 36,383 women in situ SCC. The total number of 20 other male cancers was 484,850 and of 22 female cancers it was 452,909. Rank correlations ranged from 0.90 to 0.96 (P~5×10^-6), indicating that overall skin SCC did not interfere with SPC formation. The exceptions were increased SPC risks for melanoma, sharing risk factors with skin SCC, and non-Hodgkin and Hodgkin lymphoma, and cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, connective tissue, and male and female genitals suggesting contribution by skin cancer initiated immune dysfunction.

Conclusion

The incidence ranking of SPCs after skin cancers largely follows the incidence ranking of FPCs indicating that overall skin SCC does not greatly interfere with the intrinsic carcinogenic process. The main deviations in incidence between FPC and SPC appeared to be due to shared risk factors or immunological processes promoting immune responsive cancer types.

Association between tumor characteristics and second primary cancers with cutaneous melanoma survival: A nationwide cohort study

The increased survival in malignant cutaneous melanoma (melanoma) is probably due to early diagnosis combined with improved treatment most recently. National health campaigns and screening programs for melanoma detection were started in Sweden several decades ago. We want to assess the influence of tumor characteristics, based on the TNM classification, and of second primary cancers on overall survival in melanoma. We used the Swedish Cancer Registry to assess all-cause survival in melanoma from 2003 to 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. A total of 19,773 melanoma patients were diagnosed with TNM data. Survival showed a strong improving trend over time (p-trend <.001). T1a was the most common classification (48.0% of all), while higher T class was associated systematically with worse survival (p-trend <.001). For distant metastases, the HR was 3.17, accounting for 0.9% of the patients. Any types of second primary cancers, other than melanoma, were associated with an HR of 2.00, accounted for 6.7% of all cases. Even if melanoma survival in Sweden ranks among the best national rates, the large percentage of patients with advanced tumors (T3b, T4a, and T4b, 17%) and 21% of deaths with T1a call for improved preventive and follow-up strategies.

Influence of family history on risk of second primary cancers and survival in patients with squamous cell skin cancer

BACKGROUND

Patients with squamous cell skin cancer (SCC) have an excellent prognosis but second primary cancers (SPCs) weaken survival prospects. Family history is a known risk factor for cancer but whether it is a risk factor for SPC in patients with SCC is not known.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the risk of family history on SPCs in patients with SCC and estimate survival probabilities of patients with SPCs depending on family history.

METHODS

With 13 945 histologically verified SCCs, relative risks (RRs) were estimated for family history using a generalized regression model. For survival analysis, hazard ratios (HRs) were assessed using a multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

Family history of invasive SCC increased risk of second invasive SCC [RR = 42·92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 33·69-50·32] compared with risk without family history (RR 19·12, 95% CI 17·88-21·08). Family history of any nonskin cancer in invasive SCC increased risk of the same cancers to be diagnosed as SPC (RRF_H = 1·48, 95% CI 1·35-1·61 vs. RR_{no FH} = 1·40, 95% CI 1·32-1·48); significant increases were observed for seven different nonskin cancers. Most results were replicated for in situ SCC. SPC was deleterious for survival irrespective of family history; HR for patients with SPC was 4·28 (95% CI 3·83-4·72) vs. those without SPC (1·04).

CONCLUSIONS

Family history of nonskin cancer was associated with approximately a doubling of risk for SPCs in patients with SCC. SPC increases the death rate in patients with SCC 3-4 times, irrespective of family history. Taking family history into account at SCC diagnosis may help prevention or early detection of SPCs. What's already known about this topic? Second primary cancers (SPCs) are frequently diagnosed in patients with invasive and in situ squamous cell carcinoma (SCC); some epidemiological studies suggest a link to immune dysfunction. Family history of cancer is a risk factor for practically all first primary cancers but whether it also influences risk of SPCs in patients with SCC is not known. The possible influence of family history on survival in patients with SCC remains to be established. Linked Comment: Youlden and Baade. Br J Dermatol 2020; 183:414-415.

Second Primary Cancers in Melanoma Patients Critically Shorten Survival

Background

Survival in malignant cutaneous melanoma has improved but increasing survival will result in an increased likelihood of the occurrence of second primary cancers (SPCs). SPCs may adversely interfere with survival. We quantified survival in patients with different types of SPCs, in comparison to known poor prognostic indicators of metastatic disease.

Methods

Data for melanoma and any SPCs were obtained from the Swedish Cancer Registry for years 2003 through 2015, including clinical TNM classification. SPCs were grouped into three ‘prognostic groups’ based on 5-year relative survival of these cancers as first primary cancer. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated and hazard ratios were estimated using Cox regression, adjusted for a number of variables and treating diagnosis of SPC as a time-dependent variable.

Results

The total number of first melanoma patients was 28,716 followed by 3,202 (11.1%) SPCs, 1/3 of which had a second melanoma while 2/3 had other SPCs. Among men diagnosed at age over 70 years, who survived at least 10 years, 31.4% had SPC. HRs (95% CI) for survival increased systematically from the reference rate of 1.00 (no SPC) to 1.59 (1.35–1.87) with SPC of good prognosis (78.6% of SPCs) to 3.49 (2.58–4.72) of moderate prognosis (12.0%) and to 7.93 (5.50–11.44) of poor prognosis (9.4%). In patients without SPC, the HRs increased to 2.62 (2.02–3.39) with any nodal metastases and to 5.88 (4.57–7.57) with any distant metastases compared to patients without local or distant metastases.

Conclusion

The data showed that SPCs are an increasingly common negative prognostic factor for melanoma. Future attempts to improve melanoma survival need to target SPCs.