Evidence for Residual Immunity to Smallpox After Vaccination and Implications for Re-emergence

Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox

The Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) was widely deployed to prevent mpox during the 2022 global outbreak. This vaccine was initially approved for mpox based on its reported immunogenicity (from phase I/II trials) and effectiveness in animal models, rather than evidence of clinical efficacy. However, no validated correlate of protection after vaccination has been identified. Here we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis of the available data to test whether vaccinia-binding ELISA endpoint titer is predictive of vaccine effectiveness against mpox. We observe a significant correlation between vaccine effectiveness and vaccinia-binding antibody titers, consistent with the existing assumption that antibody levels may be a correlate of protection. Combining this data with analysis of antibody kinetics after vaccination, we predict the durability of protection after vaccination and the impact of dose spacing. We find that delaying the second dose of MVA-BN vaccination will provide more durable protection and may be optimal in an outbreak with limited vaccine stock. Although further work is required to validate this correlate, this study provides a quantitative evidence-based approach for using antibody measurements to predict the effectiveness of mpox vaccination.

Bartonella infections are prevalent in rodents despite efficient immune responses

BACKGROUND

Pathogens face strong selection from host immune responses, yet many host populations support pervasive pathogen populations. We investigated this puzzle in a model system of Bartonella and rodents from Israel's northwestern Negev Desert. We chose to study this system because, in this region, 75-100% of rodents are infected with Bartonella at any given time, despite an efficient immunological response. In this region, Bartonella species circulate in three rodent species, and we tested the hypothesis that at least one of these hosts exhibits a waning immune response to Bartonella, which allows reinfections.

METHODS

We inoculated captive animals of all three rodent species with the same Bartonella strain, and we quantified the bacterial dynamics and Bartonella-specific immunoglobulin G antibody kinetics over a period of 139 days after the primary inoculation, and then for 60 days following reinoculation with the same strain.

RESULTS

Contrary to our hypothesis, we found a strong, long-lasting immunoglobulin G antibody response, with protective immunological memory in all three rodent species. That response prevented reinfection upon exposure of the rodents to the same Bartonella strain.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes an initial step toward understanding how the interplay between traits of Bartonella and their hosts influences the epidemiological dynamics of these pathogens in nature.

Cowpox Viruses: A Zoo Full of Viral Diversity and Lurking Threats

Cowpox viruses (CPXVs) exhibit the broadest known host range among the Poxviridae family and have caused lethal outbreaks in various zoo animals and pets across 12 Eurasian countries, as well as an increasing number of human cases. Herein, we review the history of how the cowpox name has evolved since the 1700s up to modern times. Despite early documentation of the different properties of CPXV isolates, only modern genetic analyses and phylogenies have revealed the existence of multiple Orthopoxvirus species that are currently constrained under the CPXV designation. We further chronicle modern outbreaks in zoos, domesticated animals, and humans, and describe animal models of experimental CPXV infections and how these can help shaping CPXV species distinctions. We also describe the pathogenesis of modern CPXV infections in animals and humans, the geographic range of CPXVs, and discuss CPXV-host interactions at the molecular level and their effects on pathogenicity and host range. Finally, we discuss the potential threat of these viruses and the future of CPXV research to provide a comprehensive review of CPXVs.

Monkeypox-What Pediatricians Need to Know

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease, presenting with fever, lymphadenopathy and vesicular-pustular skin lesions, that historically has rarely been reported outside the endemic regions of Central and West Africa. It was previously thought that human-to-human transmission was too low to sustain spread. During 2022, the number of cases of monkeypox, caused by clade II, rose rapidly globally, predominantly among men who have sex with men. In previous outbreaks with monkeypox clade 1 in endemic areas, children were disproportionately more affected with higher morbidity and mortality. It is unclear whether children are at similarly higher risk from monkeypox clade II. Nonetheless, children and pregnant women are considered high-risk groups and antiviral treatment should be considered for those affected. While smallpox vaccination offers good protection against monkeypox, the duration of protection is unknown, and infection occurs in vaccinated individuals. Should the current outbreak spread to children, authorities should be prepared to rapidly implement vaccination for children. In this review, we summarize epidemiological and clinical features, as well as the pathogenesis, treatment, and prevention options for monkeypox with a focus on considerations for children.

Estimation of anti-orthopoxvirus immunity in Moscow residents and potential risks of spreading Monkeypox virus

WHO has declared the outbreak of monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern. In less than three months, monkeypox was detected in more than 30 000 people and spread to more than 80 countries around the world. It is believed that the immunity formed to smallpox vaccine can protect from monkeypox infection with high efficiency. The widespread use of Vaccinia virus has not been carried out since the 1980s, which raises the question of the level of residual immunity among the population and the identification of groups requiring priority vaccination. We conducted a cross-sectional serological study of remaining immunity among Moscow residents. To do this, a collection of blood serum samples of age group over 30 years old was formed, an in-house ELISA test system was developed, and a virus neutralization protocol was set up. Serum samples were examined for the presence of IgG antibodies against Vaccinia virus (n=2908), as well as for the ability to neutralize plaque formation with a Vaccinia virus MNIIVP-10 strain (n=299). The results indicate the presence of neutralizing antibody titer of 1/20 or more in 33.3 to 53.2% of people older than 45 years. Among people 30-45 years old who probably have not been vaccinated, the proportion with virus neutralizing antibodies ranged from 3.2 to 6.7%. Despite the higher level of antibodies in age group older than 66 years, the proportion of positive samples in this group was slightly lower than in people aged 46-65 years. The results indicate the priority of vaccination in groups younger than 45, and possibly older than 66 years to ensure the protection of the population in case of spread of monkeypox among Moscow residents. The herd immunity level needed to stop the circulation of the virus should be at least 50.25 - 65.28%.

Monkeypox 2022 outbreak in non-endemic countries: Open questions relevant for public health, nonpharmacological intervention and literature review

Starting from mid-May 2022, cases of human monkeypox started to rise in several non-endemic countries. By mid-July, more than 17000 confirmed/suspect cases have been reported by at least 82 countries worldwide, with a regular incremental trend. In order to contain the disease diffusion, risk evaluation is crucial to undertake informed decisions and effective communication campaigns. However, since orthopoxvirus infections so far have attracted low attention, due to the eradication of smallpox 40 years ago, and to the confinement of human monkeypox almost exclusively to endemic areas, several unresolved issues concerning natural history, ecology and pathogenesis remain. To this respect, we identified some open questions and reviewed the relevant literature on monkeypoxvirus and/or related orthopoxviruses. The results will be discussed in the perspective of their relevance to public health decisions, particularly those related to non-pharmacological interventions.

Preventing the Next Pandemic: Is Live Vaccine Efficacious against Monkeypox, or Is There a Need for Killed Virus and mRNA Vaccines?

(1) Background: The monkeypox virus (MPV) is a double-stranded DNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family, Chordopoxvirinae subfamily, and Orthopoxvirus genus. It was called monkeypox because it was first discovered in monkeys, in a Danish laboratory, in 1958. However, the actual reservoir for MPV is still unknown. (2) Methods and Results: We have reviewed the existing literature on the options for Monkeypox virus. There are three available vaccines for orthopoxviruses—ACAM2000, JYNNEOS, and LC16—with the first being a replicating vaccine and the latter being non- or minimally replicating. (3) Conclusions: Smallpox vaccinations previously provided coincidental immunity to MPV. ACAM2000 (a live-attenuated replicating vaccine) and JYNNEOS (a live-attenuated, nonreplicating vaccine) are two US FDA-approved vaccines that can prevent monkeypox. However, ACAM2000 may cause serious side effects, including cardiac problems, whereas JYNNEOS is associated with fewer complications. The recent outbreaks across the globe have once again highlighted the need for constant monitoring and the development of novel prophylactic and therapeutic modalities. Based on available data, there is still a need to develop an effective and safe new generation of vaccines specific for monkeypox that are killed or developed into a mRNA vaccine before monkeypox is declared a pandemic.

Pacific Eclipse - A tabletop exercise on smallpox pandemic response

BACKGROUND

In December 2019, we ran Pacific Eclipse, a pandemic tabletop exercise using smallpox originating in Fiji as a case study. Pacific Eclipse brought together international stakeholders from health, defence, law enforcement, emergency management and a range of other organisations.

AIM

To review potential gaps in preparedness and identify modifiable factors which could prevent a pandemic or mitigate the impact of a pandemic.

METHODS

Pacific Eclipse was held on December 9-10 in Washington DC, Phoenix and Honolulu simultaneously. The scenario began in Fiji and becomes a pandemic. Mathematical modelling of smallpox transmission was used to simulate the epidemic under different conditions and to test the effect of interventions. Live polling, using Poll Everywhere software that participants downloaded onto their smart phones, was used to gather participant decisions as the scenario unfolded. Stakeholders from state and federal government and non-government organisations from The United States, The United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, as well as industry and non-government organisations attended.

RESULTS

The scenario progressed in three phases and participants were able to make decisions during each phase using live polling. The polling showed very diverse and sometimes conflicting decision making. Factors influential to pandemic severity were identified and categorised as modifiable or unmodifiable. A series of recommendations were made on the modifiable determinants of pandemic severity and how these can be incorporated into pandemic planning. These included preventing an attack through intelligence, law enforcement and legislation, improved speed of diagnosis, speed and completeness of case finding and case isolation, speed and security of vaccination response (including stockpiling), speed and completeness of contact tracing, protecting critical infrastructure and business continuity, non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing, PPE, border control) and protecting first responders.

DISCUSSION

Pacific Eclipse illustrated the impact of a pandemic of smallpox under different response scenarios, which were validated to some extent by the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework developed from the scenario draws out modifiable determinants of pandemic severity which can inform pandemic planning for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and for future pandemics.

Nonthermal plasma as part of a novel strategy for vaccination

Vaccination has been one of the most effective health intervention mechanisms to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with infectious diseases. Vaccines stimulate the body's protective immune responses through controlled exposure to modified versions of pathogens that establish immunological memory. However, only a few diseases have effective vaccines. The biological effects of nonthermal plasma on cells suggest that plasma could play an important role in improving efficacy of existing vaccines and overcoming some of the limitations and challenges with current vaccination strategies. This review summarizes the opportunities for nonthermal plasma for immunization and therapeutic purposes.

Serological Immunity to Smallpox in New South Wales, Australia

The re-emergence of smallpox is an increasing and legitimate concern due to advances in synthetic biology. Vaccination programs against smallpox using the vaccinia virus vaccine ceased with the eradication of smallpox and, unlike many other countries, Australia did not use mass vaccinations. However, vaccinated migrants contribute to population immunity. Testing for vaccinia antibodies is not routinely performed in Australia, and few opportunities exist to estimate the level of residual population immunity against smallpox. Serological data on population immunity in Australia could inform management plans against a smallpox outbreak. Vaccinia antibodies were measured in 2003 in regular plasmapheresis donors at the Australian Red Cross Blood Service from New South Wales (NSW). The data were analysed to estimate the proportion of Australians in NSW with detectable serological immunity to vaccinia. The primary object of this study was to measure neutralising antibody titres against vaccinia virus. Titre levels in donor samples were determined by plaque reduction assay. To estimate current levels of immunity to smallpox infection, the decline in geometric mean titres (GMT) over time was projected using two values for the antibody levels estimated on the basis of different times since vaccination. The results of this study suggest that there is minimal residual immunity to the vaccinia virus in the Australian population. Although humoral immunity is protective against orthopoxvirus infections, cell-mediated immunity and immunological memory likely also play roles, which are not quantified by antibody levels. These data provide an immunological snapshot of the NSW population, which could inform emergency preparedness planning and outbreak control, especially concerning the stockpiling of vaccinia vaccine.