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Berry MT, Khan SR, Schlub TE, Notaras A, Kunasekaran M, Grulich AE, MacIntyre CR, Davenport MP, Khoury DS. Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3856. [PMID: 38719852 PMCID: PMC11078999 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48180-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) was widely deployed to prevent mpox during the 2022 global outbreak. This vaccine was initially approved for mpox based on its reported immunogenicity (from phase I/II trials) and effectiveness in animal models, rather than evidence of clinical efficacy. However, no validated correlate of protection after vaccination has been identified. Here we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis of the available data to test whether vaccinia-binding ELISA endpoint titer is predictive of vaccine effectiveness against mpox. We observe a significant correlation between vaccine effectiveness and vaccinia-binding antibody titers, consistent with the existing assumption that antibody levels may be a correlate of protection. Combining this data with analysis of antibody kinetics after vaccination, we predict the durability of protection after vaccination and the impact of dose spacing. We find that delaying the second dose of MVA-BN vaccination will provide more durable protection and may be optimal in an outbreak with limited vaccine stock. Although further work is required to validate this correlate, this study provides a quantitative evidence-based approach for using antibody measurements to predict the effectiveness of mpox vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew T Berry
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Shanchita R Khan
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Timothy E Schlub
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Adriana Notaras
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Andrew E Grulich
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - C Raina MacIntyre
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- College of Public Service and Community Solutions, and College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Miles P Davenport
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - David S Khoury
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
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Quigley AL, Kunasekaran M, Stone H, Honeyman D, Notaras A, Lim S, MacIntyre CR. The impact of the cruise ship coral princess on COVID-19 transmission in regional Western Australia in 2022. J Travel Med 2024:taae044. [PMID: 38470290 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taae044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024]
Abstract
Increased COVID-19 community transmission in regional areas with high Aboriginal populations, limited health infrastructure and low vaccination rates, could result in clusters of transmission with increased deaths rates. Pilbara, a regional community with a high Aboriginal population, showed a 34.8% increase in COVID-19 cases in the four-weeks post cruise-ship docking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashley L Quigley
- Biosecurity Research Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Mohana Kunasekaran
- Biosecurity Research Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Haley Stone
- Biosecurity Research Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Damian Honeyman
- Biosecurity Research Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Adriana Notaras
- Biosecurity Research Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Samsung Lim
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - C Raina MacIntyre
- Biosecurity Research Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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