Linking great apes genome evolution across time scales using polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models

A Wright-Fisher graph model and the impact of directional selection on genetic variation

We introduce a multi-allele Wright-Fisher model with mutation and selection such that allele frequencies at a single locus are traced by the path of a hybrid jump-diffusion process. The state space of the process is given by the vertices and edges of a topological graph, i.e. edges are unit intervals. Vertices represent monomorphic population states and positions on the edges mark the biallelic proportions of ancestral and derived alleles during polymorphic segments. In this setting, mutations can only occur at monomorphic loci. We derive the stationary distribution in mutation-selection-drift equilibrium and obtain the expected allele frequency spectrum under large population size scaling. For the extended model with multiple independent loci we derive rigorous upper bounds for a wide class of associated measures of genetic variation. Within this framework we present mathematically precise arguments to conclude that the presence of directional selection reduces the magnitude of genetic variation, as constrained by the bounds for neutral evolution.

Polymorphism-Aware Models in RevBayes: Species Trees, Disentangling Balancing Selection, and GC-Biased Gene Conversion

The role of balancing selection is a long-standing evolutionary puzzle. Balancing selection is a crucial evolutionary process that maintains genetic variation (polymorphism) over extended periods of time; however, detecting it poses a significant challenge. Building upon the Polymorphism-aware phylogenetic Models (PoMos) framework rooted in the Moran model, we introduce a PoMoBalance model. This novel approach is designed to disentangle the interplay of mutation, genetic drift, and directional selection (GC-biased gene conversion), along with the previously unexplored balancing selection pressures on ultra-long timescales comparable with species divergence times by analyzing multi-individual genomic and phylogenetic divergence data. Implemented in the open-source RevBayes Bayesian framework, PoMoBalance offers a versatile tool for inferring phylogenetic trees as well as quantifying various selective pressures. The novel aspect of our approach in studying balancing selection lies in polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models' ability to account for ancestral polymorphisms and incorporate parameters that measure frequency-dependent selection, allowing us to determine the strength of the effect and exact frequencies under selection. We implemented validation tests and assessed the model on the data simulated with SLiM and a custom Moran model simulator. Real sequence analysis of Drosophila populations reveals insights into the evolutionary dynamics of regions subject to frequency-dependent balancing selection, particularly in the context of sex-limited color dimorphism in Drosophila erecta.

Unifying approaches from statistical genetics and phylogenetics for mapping phenotypes in structured populations

In both statistical genetics and phylogenetics, a major goal is to identify correlations between genetic loci or other aspects of the phenotype or environment and a focal trait. In these two fields, there are sophisticated but disparate statistical traditions aimed at these tasks. The disconnect between their respective approaches is becoming untenable as questions in medicine, conservation biology, and evolutionary biology increasingly rely on integrating data from within and among species, and once-clear conceptual divisions are becoming increasingly blurred. To help bridge this divide, we derive a general model describing the covariance between the genetic contributions to the quantitative phenotypes of different individuals. Taking this approach shows that standard models in both statistical genetics (e.g., Genome-Wide Association Studies; GWAS) and phylogenetic comparative biology (e.g., phylogenetic regression) can be interpreted as special cases of this more general quantitative-genetic model. The fact that these models share the same core architecture means that we can build a unified understanding of the strengths and limitations of different methods for controlling for genetic structure when testing for associations. We develop intuition for why and when spurious correlations may occur using analytical theory and conduct population-genetic and phylogenetic simulations of quantitative traits. The structural similarity of problems in statistical genetics and phylogenetics enables us to take methodological advances from one field and apply them in the other. We demonstrate this by showing how a standard GWAS technique-including both the genetic relatedness matrix (GRM) as well as its leading eigenvectors, corresponding to the principal components of the genotype matrix, in a regression model-can mitigate spurious correlations in phylogenetic analyses. As a case study of this, we re-examine an analysis testing for co-evolution of expression levels between genes across a fungal phylogeny, and show that including covariance matrix eigenvectors as covariates decreases the false positive rate while simultaneously increasing the true positive rate. More generally, this work provides a foundation for more integrative approaches for understanding the genetic architecture of phenotypes and how evolutionary processes shape it.

SUP: a probabilistic framework to propagate genome sequence uncertainty, with applications

Genetic sequencing is subject to many different types of errors, but most analyses treat the resultant sequences as if they are known without error. Next generation sequencing methods rely on significantly larger numbers of reads than previous sequencing methods in exchange for a loss of accuracy in each individual read. Still, the coverage of such machines is imperfect and leaves uncertainty in many of the base calls. In this work, we demonstrate that the uncertainty in sequencing techniques will affect downstream analysis and propose a straightforward method to propagate the uncertainty. Our method (which we have dubbed Sequence Uncertainty Propagation, or SUP) uses a probabilistic matrix representation of individual sequences which incorporates base quality scores as a measure of uncertainty that naturally lead to resampling and replication as a framework for uncertainty propagation. With the matrix representation, resampling possible base calls according to quality scores provides a bootstrap- or prior distribution-like first step towards genetic analysis. Analyses based on these re-sampled sequences will include a more complete evaluation of the error involved in such analyses. We demonstrate our resampling method on SARS-CoV-2 data. The resampling procedures add a linear computational cost to the analyses, but the large impact on the variance in downstream estimates makes it clear that ignoring this uncertainty may lead to overly confident conclusions. We show that SARS-CoV-2 lineage designations via Pangolin are much less certain than the bootstrap support reported by Pangolin would imply and the clock rate estimates for SARS-CoV-2 are much more variable than reported.

Phylogenomic comparative methods: Accurate evolutionary inferences in the presence of gene tree discordance

Phylogenetic comparative methods have long been a mainstay of evolutionary biology, allowing for the study of trait evolution across species while accounting for their common ancestry. These analyses typically assume a single, bifurcating phylogenetic tree describing the shared history among species. However, modern phylogenomic analyses have shown that genomes are often composed of mosaic histories that can disagree both with the species tree and with each other-so-called discordant gene trees. These gene trees describe shared histories that are not captured by the species tree, and therefore that are unaccounted for in classic comparative approaches. The application of standard comparative methods to species histories containing discordance leads to incorrect inferences about the timing, direction, and rate of evolution. Here, we develop two approaches for incorporating gene tree histories into comparative methods: one that constructs an updated phylogenetic variance-covariance matrix from gene trees, and another that applies Felsenstein's pruning algorithm over a set of gene trees to calculate trait histories and likelihoods. Using simulation, we demonstrate that our approaches generate much more accurate estimates of tree-wide rates of trait evolution than standard methods. We apply our methods to two clades of the wild tomato genus Solanum with varying rates of discordance, demonstrating the contribution of gene tree discordance to variation in a set of floral traits. Our approaches have the potential to be applied to a broad range of classic inference problems in phylogenetics, including ancestral state reconstruction and the inference of lineage-specific rate shifts.

Range-wide population genomics of common seadragons shows secondary contact over a former barrier and insights on illegal capture

BACKGROUND

Common seadragons (Phyllopteryx taeniolatus, Syngnathidae) are an emblem of the diverse endemic fauna of Australia's southern rocky reefs, the newly recognized "Great Southern Reef." A lack of assessments spanning this global biodiversity hotspot in its entirety is currently hampering an understanding of the factors that have contributed to its diversity. The common seadragon has a wide range across Australia's entire temperate south and includes a geogenetic break over a former land bridge, which has called its status as a single species into question. As a popular aquarium display that sells for high prices, common seadragons are also vulnerable to illegal capture.

RESULTS

Here, we provide range-wide nuclear sequences (986 variable Ultraconserved Elements) for 198 individuals and mitochondrial genomes for 140 individuals to assess species status, identify genetic units and their diversity, and trace the source of two poached individuals. Using published data of the other two seadragon species, we found that lineages of common seadragons have diverged relatively recently (< 0.63 Ma). Within common seadragons, we found pronounced genetic structure, falling into three major groups in the western, central, and eastern parts of the range. While populations across the Bassian Isthmus were divergent, there is also evidence for secondary contact since the passage opened. We found a strong cline of genetic diversity from the range center tapering symmetrically towards the range peripheries. Based on their genetic similarities, the poached individuals were inferred to have originated from around Albany in southwestern Australia.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that common seadragons constitute a single species with strong geographic structure but coherence through gene flow. The low genetic diversity on the east and west coasts is concerning given that these areas are projected to face fast climate change. Our results suggest that in addition to their life history, geological events and demographic expansions have all played a role in shaping populations in the temperate south. These insights are an important step towards understanding the historical determinants of the diversity of species endemic to the Great Southern Reef.

Inferring the demographic history of the North American firefly Photinus pyralis

The firefly Photinus pyralis inhabits a wide range of latitudinal and ecological niches, with populations living from temperate to tropical habitats. Despite its broad distribution, its demographic history is unknown. In this study, we modelled and inferred different demographic scenarios for North American populations of P. pyralis, which were collected from Texas to New Jersey. We used a combination of ABC techniques (for multi-population/colonization analyses) and likelihood inference (dadi, StairwayPlot2, PoMo) for single-population demographic inference, which proved useful with our RAD data. We uncovered that the most ancestral North American population lays in Texas, which further colonized the Central region of the US and more recently the North Eastern coast. Our study confidently rejects a demographic scenario where the North Eastern populations colonized more southern populations until reaching Texas. To estimate the age of divergence between of P. pyralis, which provides deeper insights into the history of the entire species, we assembled a multi-locus phylogenetic data covering the genus Photinus. We uncovered that the phylogenetic node leading to P. pyralis lies at the end of the Miocene. Importantly, modelling the demographic history of North American P. pyralis serves as a null model of nucleotide diversity patterns in a widespread native insect species, which will serve in future studies for the detection of adaptation events in this firefly species, as well as a comparison for future studies of other North American insect taxa.

Nucleotide Usage Biases Distort Inferences of the Species Tree

Despite the importance of natural selection in species’ evolutionary history, phylogenetic methods that take into account population-level processes typically ignore selection. The assumption of neutrality is often based on the idea that selection occurs at a minority of loci in the genome and is unlikely to compromise phylogenetic inferences significantly. However, genome-wide processes like GC-bias and some variation segregating at the coding regions are known to evolve in the nearly neutral range. As we are now using genome-wide data to estimate species trees, it is natural to ask whether weak but pervasive selection is likely to blur species tree inferences. We developed a polymorphism-aware phylogenetic model tailored for measuring signatures of nucleotide usage biases to test the impact of selection in the species tree. Our analyses indicate that although the inferred relationships among species are not significantly compromised, the genetic distances are systematically underestimated in a node-height-dependent manner: that is, the deeper nodes tend to be more underestimated than the shallow ones. Such biases have implications for molecular dating. We dated the evolutionary history of 30 worldwide fruit fly populations, and we found signatures of GC-bias considerably affecting the estimated divergence times (up to 23%) in the neutral model. Our findings call for the need to account for selection when quantifying divergence or dating species evolution.

Mutation Rates and Selection on Synonymous Mutations in SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unprecedented response from the sequencing community. Leveraging the sequence data from more than 140,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we study mutation rates and selective pressures affecting the virus. Understanding the processes and effects of mutation and selection has profound implications for the study of viral evolution, for vaccine design, and for the tracking of viral spread. We highlight and address some common genome sequence analysis pitfalls that can lead to inaccurate inference of mutation rates and selection, such as ignoring skews in the genetic code, not accounting for recurrent mutations, and assuming evolutionary equilibrium. We find that two particular mutation rates, G →U and C →U, are similarly elevated and considerably higher than all other mutation rates, causing the majority of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, and are possibly the result of APOBEC and ROS activity. These mutations also tend to occur many times at the same genome positions along the global SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny (i.e., they are very homoplasic). We observe an effect of genomic context on mutation rates, but the effect of the context is overall limited. Although previous studies have suggested selection acting to decrease U content at synonymous sites, we bring forward evidence suggesting the opposite.

A nearly-neutral biallelic Moran model with biased mutation and linear and quadratic selection

In this article, a biallelic reversible mutation model with linear and quadratic selection is analysed. The approach reconnects to one proposed by Kimura (1979), who starts from a diffusion model and derives its equilibrium distribution up to a constant. We use a boundary-mutation Moran model, which approximates a general mutation model for small effective mutation rates, and derive its equilibrium distribution for polymorphic and monomorphic variants in small to moderately sized populations. Using this model, we show that biased mutation rates and linear selection alone can cause patterns of polymorphism within and substitution rates between populations that are usually ascribed to balancing or overdominant selection. We illustrate this using a data set of short introns and fourfold degenerate sites from Drosophila simulans and Drosophila melanogaster.

Mutation rates and selection on synonymous mutations in SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unprecedented response from the sequencing community. Leveraging the sequence data from more than 140,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we study mutation rates and selective pressures affecting the virus. Understanding the processes and effects of mutation and selection has profound implications for the study of viral evolution, for vaccine design, and for the tracking of viral spread. We highlight and address some common genome sequence analysis pitfalls that can lead to inaccurate inference of mutation rates and selection, such as ignoring skews in the genetic code, not accounting for recurrent mutations, and assuming evolutionary equilibrium. We find that two particular mutation rates, G→U and C→U, are similarly elevated and considerably higher than all other mutation rates, causing the majority of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, and are possibly the result of APOBEC and ROS activity. These mutations also tend to occur many times at the same genome positions along the global SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny (i.e., they are very homoplasic). We observe an effect of genomic context on mutation rates, but the effect of the context is overall limited. While previous studies have suggested selection acting to decrease U content at synonymous sites, we bring forward evidence suggesting the opposite.

ASTRAL-Pro: Quartet-Based Species-Tree Inference despite Paralogy

Phylogenetic inference from genome-wide data (phylogenomics) has revolutionized the study of evolution because it enables accounting for discordance among evolutionary histories across the genome. To this end, summary methods have been developed to allow accurate and scalable inference of species trees from gene trees. However, most of these methods, including the widely used ASTRAL, can only handle single-copy gene trees and do not attempt to model gene duplication and gene loss. As a result, most phylogenomic studies have focused on single-copy genes and have discarded large parts of the data. Here, we first propose a measure of quartet similarity between single-copy and multicopy trees that accounts for orthology and paralogy. We then introduce a method called ASTRAL-Pro (ASTRAL for PaRalogs and Orthologs) to find the species tree that optimizes our quartet similarity measure using dynamic programing. By studying its performance on an extensive collection of simulated data sets and on real data sets, we show that ASTRAL-Pro is more accurate than alternative methods.

INSTRAL: Discordance-Aware Phylogenetic Placement Using Quartet Scores

Phylogenomic analyses have increasingly adopted species tree reconstruction using methods that account for gene tree discordance using pipelines that require both human effort and computational resources. As the number of available genomes continues to increase, a new problem is facing researchers. Once more species become available, they have to repeat the whole process from the beginning because updating species trees is currently not possible. However, the de novo inference can be prohibitively costly in human effort or machine time. In this article, we introduce INSTRAL, a method that extends ASTRAL to enable phylogenetic placement. INSTRAL is designed to place a new species on an existing species tree after sequences from the new species have already been added to gene trees; thus, INSTRAL is complementary to existing placement methods that update gene trees. [ASTRAL; ILS; phylogenetic placement; species tree reconstruction.].

Consistency and identifiability of the polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models

Polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models (PoMo) constitute an alternative approach for species tree estimation from genome-wide data. PoMo builds on the standard substitution models of DNA evolution but expands the classic alphabet of the four nucleotide bases to include polymorphic states. By doing so, PoMo accounts for ancestral and current intra-population variation, while also accommodating population-level processes ruling the substitution process (e.g. genetic drift, mutations, allelic selection). PoMo has shown to be a valuable tool in several phylogenetic applications but a proof of statistical consistency (and identifiability, a necessary condition for consistency) is lacking. Here, we prove that PoMo is identifiable and, using this result, we further show that the maximum a posteriori (MAP) tree estimator of PoMo is a consistent estimator of the species tree. We complement our theoretical results with a simulated data set mimicking the diversity observed in natural populations exhibiting incomplete lineage sorting. We implemented PoMo in a Bayesian framework and show that the MAP tree easily recovers the true tree for typical numbers of sites that are sampled in genome-wide analyses.

Polymorphism Data Assist Estimation of the Nonsynonymous over Synonymous Fixation Rate Ratio ω for Closely Related Species

The ratio of nonsynonymous over synonymous sequence divergence, dN/dS, is a widely used estimate of the nonsynonymous over synonymous fixation rate ratio ω, which measures the extent to which natural selection modulates protein sequence evolution. Its computation is based on a phylogenetic approach and computes sequence divergence of protein-coding DNA between species, traditionally using a single representative DNA sequence per species. This approach ignores the presence of polymorphisms and relies on the indirect assumption that new mutations fix instantaneously, an assumption which is generally violated and reasonable only for distantly related species. The violation of the underlying assumption leads to a time-dependence of sequence divergence, and biased estimates of ω in particular for closely related species, where the contribution of ancestral and lineage-specific polymorphisms to sequence divergence is substantial. We here use a time-dependent Poisson random field model to derive an analytical expression of dN/dS as a function of divergence time and sample size. We then extend our framework to the estimation of the proportion of adaptive protein evolution α. This mathematical treatment enables us to show that the joint usage of polymorphism and divergence data can assist the inference of selection for closely related species. Moreover, our analytical results provide the basis for a protocol for the estimation of ω and α for closely related species. We illustrate the performance of this protocol by studying a population data set of four corvid species, which involves the estimation of ω and α at different time-scales and for several choices of sample sizes.

Quantifying GC-Biased Gene Conversion in Great Ape Genomes Using Polymorphism-Aware Models

As multi-individual population-scale data become available, more complex modeling strategies are needed to quantify genome-wide patterns of nucleotide usage and associated mechanisms of evolution. Recently, the multivariate neutral Moran model was proposed. However, it was shown insufficient to explain the distribution of alleles in great apes. Here, we propose a new model that includes allelic selection. Our theoretical results constitute the basis of a new Bayesian framework to estimate mutation rates and selection coefficients from population data. We apply the new framework to a great ape dataset, where we found patterns of allelic selection that match those of genome-wide GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC). In particular, we show that great apes have patterns of allelic selection that vary in intensity-a feature that we correlated with great apes' distinct demographies. We also demonstrate that the AT/GC toggling effect decreases the probability of a substitution, promoting more polymorphisms in the base composition of great ape genomes. We further assess the impact of GC-bias in molecular analysis, and find that mutation rates and genetic distances are estimated under bias when gBGC is not properly accounted for. Our results contribute to the discussion on the tempo and mode of gBGC evolution, while stressing the need for gBGC-aware models in population genetics and phylogenetics.

BEAST 2.5: An advanced software platform for Bayesian evolutionary analysis

Elaboration of Bayesian phylogenetic inference methods has continued at pace in recent years with major new advances in nearly all aspects of the joint modelling of evolutionary data. It is increasingly appreciated that some evolutionary questions can only be adequately answered by combining evidence from multiple independent sources of data, including genome sequences, sampling dates, phenotypic data, radiocarbon dates, fossil occurrences, and biogeographic range information among others. Including all relevant data into a single joint model is very challenging both conceptually and computationally. Advanced computational software packages that allow robust development of compatible (sub-)models which can be composed into a full model hierarchy have played a key role in these developments. Developing such software frameworks is increasingly a major scientific activity in its own right, and comes with specific challenges, from practical software design, development and engineering challenges to statistical and conceptual modelling challenges. BEAST 2 is one such computational software platform, and was first announced over 4 years ago. Here we describe a series of major new developments in the BEAST 2 core platform and model hierarchy that have occurred since the first release of the software, culminating in the recent 2.5 release.

Embracing heterogeneity: coalescing the Tree of Life and the future of phylogenomics

Building the Tree of Life (ToL) is a major challenge of modern biology, requiring advances in cyberinfrastructure, data collection, theory, and more. Here, we argue that phylogenomics stands to benefit by embracing the many heterogeneous genomic signals emerging from the first decade of large-scale phylogenetic analysis spawned by high-throughput sequencing (HTS). Such signals include those most commonly encountered in phylogenomic datasets, such as incomplete lineage sorting, but also those reticulate processes emerging with greater frequency, such as recombination and introgression. Here we focus specifically on how phylogenetic methods can accommodate the heterogeneity incurred by such population genetic processes; we do not discuss phylogenetic methods that ignore such processes, such as concatenation or supermatrix approaches or supertrees. We suggest that methods of data acquisition and the types of markers used in phylogenomics will remain restricted until a posteriori methods of marker choice are made possible with routine whole-genome sequencing of taxa of interest. We discuss limitations and potential extensions of a model supporting innovation in phylogenomics today, the multispecies coalescent model (MSC). Macroevolutionary models that use phylogenies, such as character mapping, often ignore the heterogeneity on which building phylogenies increasingly rely and suggest that assimilating such heterogeneity is an important goal moving forward. Finally, we argue that an integrative cyberinfrastructure linking all steps of the process of building the ToL, from specimen acquisition in the field to publication and tracking of phylogenomic data, as well as a culture that values contributors at each step, are essential for progress.

Selection Acting on Genomes

Populations evolve as mutations arise in individual organisms and, through hereditary transmission, may become "fixed" (shared by all individuals) in the population. Most mutations are lethal or have negative fitness consequences for the organism. Others have essentially no effect on organismal fitness and can become fixed through the neutral stochastic process known as random drift. However, mutations may also produce a selective advantage that boosts their chances of reaching fixation. Regions of genomes where new mutations are beneficial, rather than neutral or deleterious, tend to evolve more rapidly due to positive selection. Genes involved in immunity and defense are a well-known example; rapid evolution in these genes presumably occurs because new mutations help organisms to prevail in evolutionary "arms races" with pathogens. In recent years genome-wide scans for selection have enlarged our understanding of the genome evolution of various species. In this chapter, we will focus on methods to detect selection on the genome. In particular, we will discuss probabilistic models and how they have changed with the advent of new genome-wide data now available.

Determinants of the Efficacy of Natural Selection on Coding and Noncoding Variability in Two Passerine Species

Population genetic theory predicts that selection should be more effective when the effective population size (N_e) is larger, and that the efficacy of selection should correlate positively with recombination rate. Here, we analyzed the genomes of ten great tits and ten zebra finches. Nucleotide diversity at 4-fold degenerate sites indicates that zebra finches have a 2.83-fold larger N_e. We obtained clear evidence that purifying selection is more effective in zebra finches. The proportion of substitutions at 0-fold degenerate sites fixed by positive selection (α) is high in both species (great tit 48%; zebra finch 64%) and is significantly higher in zebra finches. When α was estimated on GC-conservative changes (i.e., between A and T and between G and C), the estimates reduced in both species (great tit 22%; zebra finch 53%). A theoretical model presented herein suggests that failing to control for the effects of GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC) is potentially a contributor to the overestimation of α, and that this effect cannot be alleviated by first fitting a demographic model to neutral variants. We present the first estimates in birds for α in the untranslated regions, and found evidence for substantial adaptive changes. Finally, although purifying selection is stronger in high-recombination regions, we obtained mixed evidence for α increasing with recombination rate, especially after accounting for gBGC. These results highlight that it is important to consider the potential confounding effects of gBGC when quantifying selection and that our understanding of what determines the efficacy of selection is incomplete.

Multi-allele species reconstruction using ASTRAL

Genome-wide phylogeny reconstruction is becoming increasingly common, and one driving factor behind these phylogenomic studies is the promise that the potential discordance between gene trees and the species tree can be modeled. Incomplete lineage sorting is one cause of discordance that bridges population genetic and phylogenetic processes. ASTRAL is a species tree reconstruction method that seeks to find the tree with minimum quartet distance to an input set of inferred gene trees. However, the published ASTRAL algorithm only works with one sample per species. To account for polymorphisms in present-day species, one can sample multiple individuals per species to create multi-allele datasets. Here, we introduce how ASTRAL can handle multi-allele datasets. We show that the quartet-based optimization problem extends naturally, and we introduce heuristic methods for building the search space specifically for the case of multi-individual datasets. We study the accuracy and scalability of the multi-individual version of ASTRAL-III using extensive simulation studies and compare it to NJst, the only other scalable method that can handle these datasets. We do not find strong evidence that using multiple individuals dramatically improves accuracy. When we study the trade-off between sampling more genes versus more individuals, we find that sampling more genes is more effective than sampling more individuals, even under conditions that we study where trees are shallow (median length: ≈1N_e) and ILS is extremely high.

Bayesian reconstruction of transmission within outbreaks using genomic variants

Pathogen genome sequencing can reveal details of transmission histories and is a powerful tool in the fight against infectious disease. In particular, within-host pathogen genomic variants identified through heterozygous nucleotide base calls are a potential source of information to identify linked cases and infer direction and time of transmission. However, using such data effectively to model disease transmission presents a number of challenges, including differentiating genuine variants from those observed due to sequencing error, as well as the specification of a realistic model for within-host pathogen population dynamics. Here we propose a new Bayesian approach to transmission inference, BadTrIP (BAyesian epiDemiological TRansmission Inference from Polymorphisms), that explicitly models evolution of pathogen populations in an outbreak, transmission (including transmission bottlenecks), and sequencing error. BadTrIP enables the inference of host-to-host transmission from pathogen sequencing data and epidemiological data. By assuming that genomic variants are unlinked, our method does not require the computationally intensive and unreliable reconstruction of individual haplotypes. Using simulations we show that BadTrIP is robust in most scenarios and can accurately infer transmission events by efficiently combining information from genetic and epidemiological sources; thanks to its realistic model of pathogen evolution and the inclusion of epidemiological data, BadTrIP is also more accurate than existing approaches. BadTrIP is distributed as an open source package (https://bitbucket.org/nicofmay/badtrip) for the phylogenetic software BEAST2. We apply our method to reconstruct transmission history at the early stages of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, showcasing the power of within-host genomic variants to reconstruct transmission events.

We present a new tool to reconstruct transmission events within outbreaks. Our approach makes use of pathogen genetic information, notably genetic variants at low frequency within host that are usually discarded, and combines it with epidemiological information of host exposure to infection. This leads to accurate reconstruction of transmission even in cases where abundant within-host pathogen genetic variation and weak transmission bottlenecks (multiple pathogen units colonising a new host at transmission) would otherwise make inference difficult due to the transmission history differing from the pathogen evolution history inferred from pathogen isolets. Also, the use of within-host pathogen genomic variants increases the resolution of the reconstruction of the transmission tree even in scenarios with limited within-outbreak pathogen genetic diversity: within-host pathogen populations that appear identical at the level of consensus sequences can be discriminated using within-host variants. Our Bayesian approach provides a measure of the confidence in different possible transmission histories, and is published as open source software. We show with simulations and with an analysis of the beginning of the 2014 Ebola outbreak that our approach is applicable in many scenarios, improves our understanding of transmission dynamics, and will contribute to finding and limiting sources and routes of transmission, and therefore preventing the spread of infectious disease.

Statistical Inference in the Wright-Fisher Model Using Allele Frequency Data

The Wright–Fisher model provides an elegant mathematical framework for understanding allele frequency data. In particular, the model can be used to infer the demographic history of species and identify loci under selection. A crucial quantity for inference under the Wright–Fisher model is the distribution of allele frequencies (DAF). Despite the apparent simplicity of the model, the calculation of the DAF is challenging. We review and discuss strategies for approximating the DAF, and how these are used in methods that perform inference from allele frequency data. Various evolutionary forces can be incorporated in the Wright–Fisher model, and we consider these in turn. We begin our review with the basic bi-allelic Wright–Fisher model where random genetic drift is the only evolutionary force. We then consider mutation, migration, and selection. In particular, we compare diffusion-based and moment-based methods in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, and analytical tractability. We conclude with a brief overview of the multi-allelic process with a general mutation model.

Protein evolution depends on multiple distinct population size parameters

That population size affects the fate of new mutations arising in genomes, modulating both how frequently they arise and how efficiently natural selection is able to filter them, is well established. It is therefore clear that these distinct roles for population size that characterize different processes should affect the evolution of proteins and need to be carefully defined. Empirical evidence is consistent with a role for demography in influencing protein evolution, supporting the idea that functional constraints alone do not determine the composition of coding sequences.

Given that the relationship between population size, mutant fitness and fixation probability has been well characterized, estimating fitness from observed substitutions is well within reach with well-formulated models. Molecular evolution research has, therefore, increasingly begun to leverage concepts from population genetics to quantify the selective effects associated with different classes of mutation. However, in order for this type of analysis to provide meaningful information about the intra- and inter-specific evolution of coding sequences, a clear definition of concepts of population size, what they influence, and how they are best parameterized is essential.

Here, we present an overview of the many distinct concepts that “population size” and “effective population size” may refer to, what they represent for studying proteins, and how this knowledge can be harnessed to produce better specified models of protein evolution.

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for population genetic inference

In many population genetic problems, parameter estimation is obstructed by an intractable likelihood function. Therefore, approximate estimation methods have been developed, and with growing computational power, sampling-based methods became popular. However, these methods such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be inefficient in high-dimensional problems. This led to the development of more sophisticated iterative estimation methods like particle filters. Here, we propose an alternative approach that is based on stochastic approximation. By moving along a simulated gradient or ascent direction, the algorithm produces a sequence of estimates that eventually converges to the maximum likelihood estimate, given a set of observed summary statistics. This strategy does not sample much from low-likelihood regions of the parameter space, and is fast, even when many summary statistics are involved. We put considerable efforts into providing tuning guidelines that improve the robustness and lead to good performance on problems with high-dimensional summary statistics and a low signal-to-noise ratio. We then investigate the performance of our resulting approach and study its properties in simulations. Finally, we re-estimate parameters describing the demographic history of Bornean and Sumatran orang-utans.

Coalescing molecular evolution and DNA barcoding

The DNA barcoding concept (Woese et al. ; Hebert et al. ) has considerably boosted taxonomy research by facilitating the identification of specimens and discovery of new species. Used alone or in combination with DNA metabarcoding on environmental samples (Taberlet et al. ), the approach is becoming a standard for basic and applied research in ecology, evolution and conservation across taxa, communities and ecosystems (Scheffers et al. ; Kress et al. ). However, DNA barcoding suffers from several shortcomings that still remain overlooked, especially when it comes to species delineation (Collins & Cruickshank ). In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Barley & Thomson () demonstrate that the choice of models of sequence evolution has substantial impacts on inferred genetic distances, with a propensity of the widely used Kimura 2-parameter model to lead to underestimated species richness. While DNA barcoding has been and will continue to be a powerful tool for specimen identification and preliminary taxonomic sorting, this work calls for a systematic assessment of substitution models fit on barcoding data used for species delineation and reopens the debate on the limitation of this approach.

Efficient computation of the joint sample frequency spectra for multiple populations

A wide range of studies in population genetics have employed the sample frequency spectrum (SFS), a summary statistic which describes the distribution of mutant alleles at a polymorphic site in a sample of DNA sequences and provides a highly efficient dimensional reduction of large-scale population genomic variation data. Recently, there has been much interest in analyzing the joint SFS data from multiple populations to infer parameters of complex demographic histories, including variable population sizes, population split times, migration rates, admixture proportions, and so on. SFS-based inference methods require accurate computation of the expected SFS under a given demographic model. Although much methodological progress has been made, existing methods suffer from numerical instability and high computational complexity when multiple populations are involved and the sample size is large. In this paper, we present new analytic formulas and algorithms that enable accurate, efficient computation of the expected joint SFS for thousands of individuals sampled from hundreds of populations related by a complex demographic model with arbitrary population size histories (including piecewise-exponential growth). Our results are implemented in a new software package called momi (MOran Models for Inference). Through an empirical study we demonstrate our improvements to numerical stability and computational complexity.

Gene Tree Discordance Can Generate Patterns of Diminishing Convergence over Time

Phenotypic convergence is an exciting outcome of adaptive evolution, occurring when different species find similar solutions to the same problem. Unraveling the molecular basis of convergence provides a way to link genotype to adaptive phenotypes, but can also shed light on the extent to which molecular evolution is repeatable and predictable. Many recent genome-wide studies have uncovered a striking pattern of diminishing convergence over time, ascribing this pattern to the presence of intramolecular epistatic interactions. Here, we consider gene tree discordance as an alternative cause of changes in convergence levels over time in a primate dataset. We demonstrate that gene tree discordance can produce patterns of diminishing convergence by itself, and that controlling for discordance as a cause of apparent convergence makes the pattern disappear. We also show that synonymous substitutions, where neither selection nor epistasis should be prevalent, have the same diminishing pattern of molecular convergence in primates. Finally, we demonstrate that even in situations where biological discordance is not possible, discordance due to errors in species tree inference can drive similar patterns. Though intramolecular epistasis could in principle create a pattern of declining convergence over time, our results suggest a possible alternative explanation for this widespread pattern. These results contribute to a growing appreciation not just of the presence of gene tree discordance, but of the unpredictable effects this discordance can have on analyses of molecular evolution.

Reversible polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models and their application to tree inference

We present a reversible Polymorphism-Aware Phylogenetic Model (revPoMo) for species tree estimation from genome-wide data. revPoMo enables the reconstruction of large scale species trees for many within-species samples. It expands the alphabet of DNA substitution models to include polymorphic states, thereby, naturally accounting for incomplete lineage sorting. We implemented revPoMo in the maximum likelihood software IQ-TREE. A simulation study and an application to great apes data show that the runtimes of our approach and standard substitution models are comparable but that revPoMo has much better accuracy in estimating trees, divergence times and mutation rates. The advantage of revPoMo is that an increase of sample size per species improves estimations but does not increase runtime. Therefore, revPoMo is a valuable tool with several applications, from speciation dating to species tree reconstruction.

The mutation spectrum in genomic late replication domains shapes mammalian GC content

Genome sequence compositions and epigenetic organizations are correlated extensively across multiple length scales. Replication dynamics, in particular, is highly correlated with GC content. We combine genome-wide time of replication (ToR) data, topological domains maps and detailed functional epigenetic annotations to study the correlations between replication timing and GC content at multiple scales. We find that the decrease in genomic GC content at large scale late replicating regions can be explained by mutation bias favoring A/T nucleotide, without selection or biased gene conversion. Quantification of the free dNTP pool during the cell cycle is consistent with a mechanism involving replication-coupled mutation spectrum that favors AT nucleotides at late S-phase. We suggest that mammalian GC content composition is shaped by independent forces, globally modulating mutation bias and locally selecting on functional element. Deconvoluting these forces and analyzing them on their native scales is important for proper characterization of complex genomic correlations.

Inference of directional selection and mutation parameters assuming equilibrium

In a classical study, Wright (1931) proposed a model for the evolution of a biallelic locus under the influence of mutation, directional selection and drift. He derived the equilibrium distribution of the allelic proportion conditional on the scaled mutation rate, the mutation bias and the scaled strength of directional selection. The equilibrium distribution can be used for inference of these parameters with genome-wide datasets of "site frequency spectra" (SFS). Assuming that the scaled mutation rate is low, Wright's model can be approximated by a boundary-mutation model, where mutations are introduced into the population exclusively from sites fixed for the preferred or unpreferred allelic states. With the boundary-mutation model, inference can be partitioned: (i) the shape of the SFS distribution within the polymorphic region is determined by random drift and directional selection, but not by the mutation parameters, such that inference of the selection parameter relies exclusively on the polymorphic sites in the SFS; (ii) the mutation parameters can be inferred from the amount of polymorphic and monomorphic preferred and unpreferred alleles, conditional on the selection parameter. Herein, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the mutation and selection parameters in equilibrium and apply the method to simulated SFS data as well as empirical data from a Madagascar population of Drosophila simulans.

The multivariate Wright-Fisher process with mutation: Moment-based analysis and inference using a hierarchical Beta model

We consider the diffusion approximation of the multivariate Wright-Fisher process with mutation. Analytically tractable formulas for the first-and second-order moments of the allele frequency distribution are derived, and the moments are subsequently used to better understand key population genetics parameters and modeling frameworks. In particular we investigate the behavior of the expected homozygosity (the probability that two randomly sampled genes are identical) in the transient and stationary phases, and how appropriate the Dirichlet distribution is for modeling the allele frequency distribution at different evolutionary time scales. We find that the Dirichlet distribution is adequate for the pure drift model (no mutations allowed), but the distribution is not sufficiently flexible for more general mutation models. We suggest a new hierarchical Beta distribution for the allele frequencies in the Wright-Fisher process with a mutation model on the nucleotide level that distinguishes between transitions and transversions.

PoMo: An Allele Frequency-Based Approach for Species Tree Estimation

Incomplete lineage sorting can cause incongruencies of the overall species-level phylogenetic tree with the phylogenetic trees for individual genes or genomic segments. If these incongruencies are not accounted for, it is possible to incur several biases in species tree estimation. Here, we present a simple maximum likelihood approach that accounts for ancestral variation and incomplete lineage sorting. We use a POlymorphisms-aware phylogenetic MOdel (PoMo) that we have recently shown to efficiently estimate mutation rates and fixation biases from within and between-species variation data. We extend this model to perform efficient estimation of species trees. We test the performance of PoMo in several different scenarios of incomplete lineage sorting using simulations and compare it with existing methods both in accuracy and computational speed. In contrast to other approaches, our model does not use coalescent theory but is allele frequency based. We show that PoMo is well suited for genome-wide species tree estimation and that on such data it is more accurate than previous approaches.

Contingency and entrenchment in protein evolution under purifying selection

The phenotypic effect of an allele at one genetic site may depend on alleles at other sites, a phenomenon known as epistasis. Epistasis can profoundly influence the process of evolution in populations and shape the patterns of protein divergence across species. Whereas epistasis between adaptive substitutions has been studied extensively, relatively little is known about epistasis under purifying selection. Here we use computational models of thermodynamic stability in a ligand-binding protein to explore the structure of epistasis in simulations of protein sequence evolution. Even though the predicted effects on stability of random mutations are almost completely additive, the mutations that fix under purifying selection are enriched for epistasis. In particular, the mutations that fix are contingent on previous substitutions: Although nearly neutral at their time of fixation, these mutations would be deleterious in the absence of preceding substitutions. Conversely, substitutions under purifying selection are subsequently entrenched by epistasis with later substitutions: They become increasingly deleterious to revert over time. Our results imply that, even under purifying selection, protein sequence evolution is often contingent on history and so it cannot be predicted by the phenotypic effects of mutations assayed in the ancestral background.

Quantification of GC-biased gene conversion in the human genome

Much evidence indicates that GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC) has a major impact on the evolution of mammalian genomes. However, a detailed quantification of the process is still lacking. The strength of gBGC can be measured from the analysis of derived allele frequency spectra (DAF), but this approach is sensitive to a number of confounding factors. In particular, we show by simulations that the inference is pervasively affected by polymorphism polarization errors and by spatial heterogeneity in gBGC strength. We propose a new general method to quantify gBGC from DAF spectra, incorporating polarization errors, taking spatial heterogeneity into account, and jointly estimating mutation bias. Applying it to human polymorphism data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we show that the strength of gBGC does not differ between hypermutable CpG sites and non-CpG sites, suggesting that in humans gBGC is not caused by the base-excision repair machinery. Genome-wide, the intensity of gBGC is in the nearly neutral area. However, given that recombination occurs primarily within recombination hotspots, 1%–2% of the human genome is subject to strong gBGC. On average, gBGC is stronger in African than in non-African populations, reflecting differences in effective population sizes. However, due to more heterogeneous recombination landscapes, the fraction of the genome affected by strong gBGC is larger in non-African than in African populations. Given that the location of recombination hotspots evolves very rapidly, our analysis predicts that, in the long term, a large fraction of the genome is affected by short episodes of strong gBGC.

Statistical binning enables an accurate coalescent-based estimation of the avian tree

Gene tree incongruence arising from incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) can reduce the accuracy of concatenation-based estimations of species trees. Although coalescent-based species tree estimation methods can have good accuracy in the presence of ILS, they are sensitive to gene tree estimation error. We propose a pipeline that uses bootstrapping to evaluate whether two genes are likely to have the same tree, then it groups genes into sets using a graph-theoretic optimization and estimates a tree on each subset using concatenation, and finally produces an estimated species tree from these trees using the preferred coalescent-based method. Statistical binning improves the accuracy of MP-EST, a popular coalescent-based method, and we use it to produce the first genome-scale coalescent-based avian tree of life.

Evidence for evolutionary and nonevolutionary forces shaping the distribution of human genetic variants near transcription start sites

The regions surrounding transcription start sites (TSSs) of genes play a critical role in the regulation of gene expression. At the same time, current evidence indicates that these regions are particularly stressed by transcription-related mutagenic phenomena. In this work we performed a genome-wide analysis of the distribution of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) inside the 10 kb region flanking human TSSs by dividing SNPs into four classes according to their frequency (rare, two intermediate classes, and common). We found that, in this 10 kb region, the distribution of variants depends on their frequency and on their localization relative to the TSS. We found that the distribution of variants is generally different for TSSs located inside or outside of CpG islands. We found a significant relationship between the distribution of rare variants and nucleosome occupancy scores. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that evolutionary (purifying selection) and nonevolutionary (biased gene conversion) forces both play a role in determining the relative SNP frequency around TSSs. Finally, we analyzed the potential pathogenicity of each class of variant using the Combined Annotation Dependent Depletion score. In conclusion, this study provides a novel and detailed view of the distribution of genomic variants around TSSs, providing insight into the forces that instigate and maintain variability in such critical regions.

Modeling evolution using the probability of fixation: history and implications

Many models of evolution calculate the rate of evolution by multiplying the rate at which new mutations originate within a population by a probability of fixation. Here we review the historical origins, contemporary applications, and evolutionary implications of these "origin-fixation" models, which are widely used in evolutionary genetics, molecular evolution, and phylogenetics. Origin-fixation models were first introduced in 1969, in association with an emerging view of "molecular" evolution. Early origin-fixation models were used to calculate an instantaneous rate of evolution across a large number of independently evolving loci; in the 1980s and 1990s, a second wave of origin-fixation models emerged to address a sequence of fixation events at a single locus. Although origin fixation models have been applied to a broad array of problems in contemporary evolutionary research, their rise in popularity has not been accompanied by an increased appreciation of their restrictive assumptions or their distinctive implications. We argue that origin-fixation models constitute a coherent theory of mutation-limited evolution that contrasts sharply with theories of evolution that rely on the presence of standing genetic variation. A major unsolved question in evolutionary biology is the degree to which these models provide an accurate approximation of evolution in natural populations.

Biased gene conversion skews allele frequencies in human populations, increasing the disease burden of recessive alleles

Gene conversion results in the nonreciprocal transfer of genetic information between two recombining sequences, and there is evidence that this process is biased toward G and C alleles. However, the strength of GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC) in human populations and its effects on hereditary disease have yet to be assessed on a genomic scale. Using high-coverage whole-genome sequences of African hunter-gatherers, agricultural populations, and primate outgroups, we quantified the effects of GC-biased gene conversion on population genomic data sets. We find that genetic distances (FST and population branch statistics) are modified by gBGC. In addition, the site frequency spectrum is left-shifted when ancestral alleles are favored by gBGC and right-shifted when derived alleles are favored by gBGC. Allele frequency shifts due to gBGC mimic the effects of natural selection. As expected, these effects are strongest in high-recombination regions of the human genome. By comparing the relative rates of fixation of unbiased and biased sites, the strength of gene conversion was estimated to be on the order of Nb ≈ 0.05 to 0.09. We also find that derived alleles favored by gBGC are much more likely to be homozygous than derived alleles at unbiased SNPs (+42.2% to 62.8%). This results in a curse of the converted, whereby gBGC causes substantial increases in hereditary disease risks. Taken together, our findings reveal that GC-biased gene conversion has important population genetic and public health implications.

The inference of gene trees with species trees

This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree-species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree-species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution.

Reduced representation genome sequencing suggests low diversity on the sex chromosomes of tonkean macaque monkeys

In species with separate sexes, social systems can differ in the relative variances of male versus female reproductive success. Papionin monkeys (macaques, mangabeys, mandrills, drills, baboons, and geladas) exhibit hallmarks of a high variance in male reproductive success, including a female-biased adult sex ratio and prominent sexual dimorphism. To explore the potential genomic consequences of such sex differences, we used a reduced representation genome sequencing approach to quantifying polymorphism at sites on autosomes and sex chromosomes of the tonkean macaque (Macaca tonkeana), a species endemic to the Indonesian island of Sulawesi. The ratio of nucleotide diversity of the X chromosome to that of the autosomes was less than the value (0.75) expected with a 1:1 sex ratio and no sex differences in the variance in reproductive success. However, the significance of this difference was dependent on which outgroup was used to standardize diversity levels. Using a new model that includes the effects of varying population size, sex differences in mutation rate between the autosomes and X chromosome, and GC-biased gene conversion (gBGC) or selection on GC content, we found that the maximum-likelihood estimate of the ratio of effective population size of the X chromosome to that of the autosomes was 0.68, which did not differ significantly from 0.75. We also found evidence for 1) a higher level of purifying selection on genic than nongenic regions, 2) gBGC or natural selection favoring increased GC content, 3) a dynamic demography characterized by population growth and contraction, 4) a higher mutation rate in males than females, and 5) a very low polymorphism level on the Y chromosome. These findings shed light on the population genomic consequences of sex differences in the variance in reproductive success, which appear to be modest in the tonkean macaque; they also suggest the occurrence of hitchhiking on the Y chromosome.

Comparative population genomics: power and principles for the inference of functionality

The availability of sequenced genomes from multiple related organisms allows the detection and localization of functional genomic elements based on the idea that such elements evolve more slowly than neutral sequences. Although such comparative genomics methods have proven useful in discovering functional elements and ascertaining levels of functional constraint in the genome as a whole, here we outline limitations intrinsic to this approach that cannot be overcome by sequencing more species. We argue that it is essential to supplement comparative genomics with ultra-deep sampling of populations from closely related species to enable substantially more powerful genomic scans for functional elements. The convergence of sequencing technology and population genetics theory has made such projects feasible and has exciting implications for functional genomics.

Evidence for GC-biased gene conversion as a driver of between-lineage differences in avian base composition

BACKGROUND

While effective population size (Ne) and life history traits such as generation time are known to impact substitution rates, their potential effects on base composition evolution are less well understood. GC content increases with decreasing body mass in mammals, consistent with recombination-associated GC biased gene conversion (gBGC) more strongly impacting these lineages. However, shifts in chromosomal architecture and recombination landscapes between species may complicate the interpretation of these results. In birds, interchromosomal rearrangements are rare and the recombination landscape is conserved, suggesting that this group is well suited to assess the impact of life history on base composition.

RESULTS

Employing data from 45 newly and 3 previously sequenced avian genomes covering a broad range of taxa, we found that lineages with large populations and short generations exhibit higher GC content. The effect extends to both coding and non-coding sites, indicating that it is not due to selection on codon usage. Consistent with recombination driving base composition, GC content and heterogeneity were positively correlated with the rate of recombination. Moreover, we observed ongoing increases in GC in the majority of lineages.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence that gBGC may drive patterns of nucleotide composition in avian genomes and are consistent with more effective gBGC in large populations and a greater number of meioses per unit time; that is, a shorter generation time. Thus, in accord with theoretical predictions, base composition evolution is substantially modulated by species life history.