Voeltz D, Brinks R, Tönnies T, Hoyer A. Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.
BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care 2023;
11:11/2/e003156. [PMID:
37024151 PMCID:
PMC10083786 DOI:
10.1136/bmjdrc-2022-003156]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 04/08/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes.
RESULTS
Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%).
CONCLUSIONS
For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.
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