Association of the frequency of pre-end-stage renal disease medical care with post-end-stage renal disease mortality and hospitalization

Early referral to nephrological care improves long-term survival and hospitalization after dialysis initiation, independent of optimal dialysis start - a call for harmonization of reimbursement policies

Early treatment of kidney disease can slow disease progression and reduce the increased risk of mortality associated with end-stage kidney disease. However, uncertainty exists whether early referral (ER) to nephrological care per se or an optimal dialysis start impacts patient outcome after dialysis initiation. We determined the effect of ER and suboptimal dialysis start on the 3-year mortality and hospitalizations after dialysis initiation. Between January 2015 and July 2018, 349 patients with ≥1 month of follow-up started dialysis at nine Romanian dialysis clinics. After excluding patients with COVID-19 during follow-up, 254 patients (97 ER and 157 late referral) were included in this retrospective study. The observational period was truncated at 3 years, death, or loss to follow-up. Clinical and laboratory data were retrieved from the quality database of the nephrological care providers. Patients were followed for a median (25-75%) of 36 (16-36) months. At dialysis start, ER patients had higher hemoglobin, phosphate, and albumin levels and started dialysis less often via a central dialysis catheter (p < 0.001 for each). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated an independent lower risk for frequent hospitalizations for ER patients (odds ratio 0.22 (95% confidence interval 0.1-0.485), p < 0.001), and Cox regression analysis revealed an improved survival (hazard ratio 0.540 (95% confidence interval 0.325-0.899), p = 0.02), both independent of optimal dialysis start. In conclusion, early referral to nephrological care was associated with improved survival and lower hospitalization rates during the three years after dialysis initiation, independent of optimal dialysis start. These results strongly support the reimbursement of nephrological care before dialysis initiation.

Pre-dialysis care trajectory and post-dialysis survival and transplantation access in patients with end-stage kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The pre-dialysis care trajectory impact on post-dialysis outcomes is poorly known. This study assessed survival, access to kidney transplant waiting list and to transplantation after dialysis initiation by taking into account the patients' pre-dialysis care consumption (inpatient and outpatient) and the conditions of dialysis start: initiation context (emergency or planned) and vascular access type (catheter or fistula).

METHODS

Adults who started dialysis in France in 2015 were included. Clinical data came from the French REIN registry and data on the care trajectory from the French National Health Data system (SNDS). The Cox model was used to assess survival and access to kidney transplantation.

RESULTS

We included 8856 patients with a mean age of 68 years. Survival was shorter in patients with emergency or planned dialysis initiation with a catheter compared to patients with planned dialysis with a fistula. The risk of death was lower in patients who were seen by a nephrologist more than once in the 6 months before dialysis than in those who were seen only once. The rate of kidney transplant at 1 year post-dialysis was lower for patients with emergency or planned dialysis initiation with a catheter (respectively, HR = 0.5 [0.4; 0.8] and HR = 0.7 [0.5; 0.9]) compared to patients with planned dialysis start with a fistula. Patients who were seen by a nephrologist more than three times between 0 and 6 months before dialysis start were more likely to access the waiting list 1 and 3 years after dialysis start (respectively, HR = 1.3 [1.1; 1.5] and HR = 1.2 [1.1; 1.4]).

CONCLUSIONS

Nephrological follow-up in the year before dialysis initiation is associated with better survival and higher probability of access to kidney transplantation. These results emphasize the importance of early patient referral to nephrologists by general practitioners.

Adherence to multidisciplinary care in a prospective chronic kidney disease cohort is associated with better outcomes

INTRODUCTION

The Renal Healthcare Program Uruguay (NRHP-UY) is a national, multidisciplinary program that provides care to chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. In this study, we report the global results of CKD patient outcomes and a comparison between those treated at the NRHP-UY Units, with those patients who were initially included in the program but did not adhere to follow up.

METHODS

A cohort of not-on dialysis CKD patients included prospectively in the NRHP-UY between October 1st 2004 and September 30th 2017 was followed-up until September 30th 2019. Two groups were compared: a) Nephrocare Group: Patients who had at least one clinic visit during the first year on NRHP-UY (n = 11174) and b) Non-adherent Group: Patients who were informed and accepted to be included but had no subsequent data registered after admission (n = 3485). The study was approved by the Ethics Committee and all patients signed an informed consent. Outcomes were studied with Logistic and Cox´s regression analysis, Fine and Gray competitive risk and propensity-score matching tests.

RESULTS

14659 patients were analyzed, median age 70 (60-77) years, 56.9% male. The Nephrocare Group showed improved achievement of therapeutic goals, ESKD was more frequent (HR 2.081, CI 95%1.722-2.514) as planned kidney replacement therapy (KRT) start (OR 2.494, CI95% 1.591-3.910), but mortality and the combined event (death and ESKD) were less frequent (HR 0.671, CI95% 0.628-0.717 and 0.777, CI95% 0.731-0.827) (p = 0.000) compared to the Non-adherent group. Results were similar in the propensity-matched group: ESKD (HR 2.041, CI95% 1.643-2.534); planned kidney replacement therapy (KRT) start (OR 2.191, CI95% 1.322-3.631) death (HR 0.692, CI95% 0.637-0.753); combined event (HR 0.801, CI95% 0.742-0.865) (p = 0.000).

CONCLUSION

Multidisciplinary care within the NRHP-UY is associated with timely initiation of KRT and lower mortality in single outcomes, combined analysis, and propensity-matched analysis.

Machine Learning to Identify Dialysis Patients at High Death Risk

Introduction

Given the high mortality rate within the first year of dialysis initiation, an accurate estimation of postdialysis mortality could help patients and clinicians in decision making about initiation of dialysis. We aimed to use machine learning (ML) by incorporating complex information from electronic health records to predict patients at risk for postdialysis short-term mortality.

Methods

This study was carried out on a contemporary cohort of 27,615 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We implemented a random forest method on 49 variables obtained before dialysis transition to predict outcomes of 30-, 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality after dialysis initiation.

Results

The mean (±SD) age of our cohort was 68.7 ± 11.2 years, 98.1% of patients were men, 29.4% were African American, and 71.4% were diabetic. The final random forest model provided C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of 0.7185 (0.6994–0.7377), 0.7446 (0.7346–0.7546), 0.7504 (0.7425–0.7583), and 0.7488 (0.7421–0.7554) for predicting risk of death within the 4 different time windows. The models showed good internal validity and replicated well in patients with various demographic and clinical characteristics and provided similar or better performance compared with other ML algorithms. Results may not be generalizable to non-veterans. Use of predictors available in electronic medical records has limited the assessment of number of predictors.

Conclusion

We implemented and ML-based method to accurately predict short-term postdialysis mortality in patients with incident ESRD. Our models could aid patients and clinicians in better decision making about the best course of action in patients approaching ESRD.

Dialysis Reimbursement: What Impact Do Different Models Have on Clinical Choices?

Allowing patients to live for decades without the function of a vital organ is a medical miracle, but one that is not without cost both in terms of morbidity and quality of life and in economic terms. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) consumes between 2% and 5% of the overall health care expenditure in countries where dialysis is available without restrictions. While transplantation is the preferred treatment in patients without contraindications, old age and comorbidity limit its indications, and low organ availability may result in long waiting times. As a consequence, 30–70% of the patients depend on dialysis, which remains the main determinant of the cost of RRT. Costs of dialysis are differently defined, and its reimbursement follows different rules. There are three main ways of establishing dialysis reimbursement. The first involves dividing dialysis into a series of elements and reimbursing each one separately (dialysis itself, medications, drugs, transportation, hospitalisation, etc.). The second, known as the capitation system, consists of merging these elements in a per capita reimbursement, while the third, usually called the bundle system, entails identifying a core of procedures intrinsically linked to treatment (e.g., dialysis sessions, tests, intradialyitc drugs). Each one has advantages and drawbacks, and impacts differently on the organization and delivery of care: payment per session may favour fragmentation and make a global appraisal difficult; a correct capitation system needs a careful correction for comorbidity, and may exacerbate competition between public and private settings, the latter aiming at selecting the least complex cases; a bundle system, in which the main elements linked to the dialysis sessions are considered together, may be a good compromise but risks penalising complex patients, and requires a rapid adaptation to treatment changes. Retarding dialysis is a clinical and economical goal, but the incentives for predialysis care are not established and its development may be unfavourable for the provider. A closer cooperation between policymakers, economists and nephrologists is needed to ensure a high quality of dialysis care.