Leveraging the metacoupling framework for sustainability science and global sustainable development

Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no 'rule of thumb' for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Ten key issues for ecological restoration of territorial space

This study innovatively puts forward the three-stage restoration goals and cutting-edge key scientific issues of ecological restoration, as well as their relationships.

Assessment of the coupling coordination relationship between the green financial system and the sustainable development system across China

Green finance (GF) is recognized as a key driver of sustainable development. While existing studies have extensively discussed the relationship between GF and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), few have explored the coupling coordination relationship between GF and SDGs. In this paper, we use data from thirty Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2008-2021 to examine the degree of coupling coordination development (CCD) between GF and the SDGs systems using the CCD model. We find that most SDGs and their sub-goals exhibit a significant upward trend, except for SDG8, 14-16. GF presents a fluctuating upward trend, with a significant decline in 2010 and 2019. The CCDs between GF and SDGs and their sub-goals generally show an M-shaped upward trend in most regions, with most of them experiencing a synchronous decline in 2011-2012 and 2019. In the analysis of regional heterogeneity, the eastern region performs better in SDG8-9, the central region performs better in SDG3, 14-15, while the western region performs better in SDG7. This paper provides empirical evidence for a further in-depth understanding of the relationship between GF and SDGs, which can contribute to advancing GF development and the SDG process.

Demographic shrinkage promotes ecosystem services supply capacity in the karst desertification control

Although ecological services have been improved in karst desertification control areas, it is still unclear how population shrinkage affects ecosystem service supply capability through ecological assets. In this study, Theil-Sen median, regression analysis, and variance partitioning were applied to explore the linkages of population change (observed data and shared socioeconomic pathways 1-representative concentration pathways 2.6), ecological asset composition (land use), quality (Normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and tree height), and ecosystem services in different periods (population growth and decline periods). The results showed that the population change during the growth period (2000-2038) was dominated by migration patterns. In degraded ecoregions (karst desertification) dominated by population out-migration, the net expansion of forest was 15.88 % during 2000-2020, NDVI and tree height increased by 0.57 % and 54.96 %, and ecosystem service supply capability increased by 2.68 %. In contrast, in non-degraded ecoregions (non-karst and karst non-desertification) with population in-migration, change rates of forest (-5.40 % and - 23.68 %), NDVI (0.49 % and 0.53 %), tree height (-8.35 % and - 31.25 %), and ecosystem service supply capability (2.04 % and 2.18 %) were apparently lower than degraded ecoregions. During the population decline period (2039-2100), although the migration pattern between two regions during the growth period was replaced by a population drop within a single region, the positive correlation between population shrinkage with ecological assets and service supply capability was still followed. Overall, the study found that both ways of population shrinkage that involve out-migration and decline can alleviate the land pressure of degraded ecoregions, which enhances ecosystem service supply capability by regulating ecological assets.

Migration and sustainable development

To understand the implications of migration for sustainable development requires a comprehensive consideration of a range of population movements and their feedback across space and time. This Perspective reviews emerging science at the interface of migration studies, demography, and sustainability, focusing on consequences of migration flows for nature-society interactions including on societal outcomes such as inequality; environmental causes and consequences of involuntary displacement; and processes of cultural convergence in sustainability practices in dynamic new populations. We advance a framework that demonstrates how migration outcomes result in identifiable consequences on resources, environmental burdens and well-being, and on innovation, adaptation, and challenges for sustainability governance. We elaborate the research frontiers of migration for sustainability science, explicitly integrating the full spectrum of regular migration decisions dominated by economic motives through to involuntary displacement due to social or environmental stresses. Migration can potentially contribute to sustainability transitions when it enhances well-being while not exacerbating structural inequalities or compound uneven burdens on environmental resources.

Global transboundary synergies and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals from an integrated sustainability perspective

Domestic attempts to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a country can have synergistic and/or trade-off effects on the advancement of SDGs in other countries. Transboundary SDG interactions can be delivered through various transmission channels (e.g., trade, river flow, ocean currents, and air flow). This study quantified the transboundary interactions through these channels between 768 pairs of SDG indicators. The results showed that although high income countries only comprised 14.18% of the global population, they contributed considerably to total SDG interactions worldwide (60.60%). Transboundary synergistic effects via international trade were 14.94% more pronounced with trade partners outside their immediate geographic vicinity than with neighbouring ones. Conversely, nature-caused flows (including river flow, ocean currents, and air flow) resulted in 39.29% stronger transboundary synergistic effects among neighboring countries compared to non-neighboring ones. To facilitate the achievement of SDGs worldwide, it is essential to enhance collaboration among countries and leverage transboundary synergies.

Unraveling interactions and priorities under sustainable development goals in less-developed mountainous areas: case study on the National Innovation Demonstration Zone for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, China

Understanding the intricate relationships between progress and the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is vital for informed and adaptable sustainable development policy formulation. This study focused on the Lincang National Innovation Demonstration Zone for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (LC-NIDZASD) in China. By evaluating sustainability scores at the county level from 2011 to 2020, the trade-offs and synergies among SDGs were explored. Priority SDGs for development were identified, and targeted recommendations were established based on these findings. The key findings are as follows: (1) The SDG index scores of Lincang and its counties showed an increase from 2011 to 2020, with scores riding from 42.1 to 52.2. SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG12 (Responsible Production and Consumption) had the highest scores, while SDG1 (No Poverty) and SDG4 (Quality Education) increased significantly. However, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in the scores of SDG1, SDG8 (Decent Jobs and Economic Growth), and SDG17 (Partnerships for the Goals) in 2020 decreased compared to 2019. Decreased scores in SDG13 (Climate Action) and SDG15 (Life on Land) may be attributable to climate change. (2) The relationship between "Objectives" and ''Governance" appears to be synergistic, while ''Essential Needs" mainly shows a trade-off relationship with ''Objectives" and ''Governance." (3) To promote achievements in the construction of LC-NIDZASD, priority should be given to SDG3 (Health and Well-Being), SDG8, SDG9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG12; SDG4 should not be ignored. (4) Overall, Lincang has made significant progress in sustainable development. However, to further consolidate these achievements, adjustments should be made for SDG7 (Energy Consumption and Production Structure). Efforts should be made to strengthen climate governance measures and improve warning and forecasting capabilities to promote the synergistic development of SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG13 with other SDGs. This study's dynamic monitoring of changes in the SDGs in Lincang provides valuable insights into the synergies and trade-offs among these goals. Appropriate prioritization across various SDGs can allow for timely adjustments in sustainable management policies, ultimately contributing to the successful operation of the LC-NIDZASD.

Complex relationships between soybean trade destination and tropical deforestation

Over the last few years, understanding of the effects of increasingly interconnected global flows of agricultural commodities on coupled human and natural systems has significantly improved. However, many important factors in environmental change that are influenced by these commodity flows are still not well understood. Here, we present an empirical spatial modelling approach to assess how changes in forest cover are influenced by trade destination. Using data for soybean-producing municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 2004 and 2017, we evaluated the relationships between forest cover change and the annual soybean trade destination. Results show that although most of the soybean produced in Mato Grosso during the study period (60%) was destined for international markets, municipalities with greater and more consistent soybean production not destined for international markets during the study period were more strongly associated with deforestation. In these municipalities, soybean production was also significantly correlated with cattle and pasture expansion. These results have important implications for the sustainable management of natural resources in the face of an increasingly interconnected world, while also helping to identify the most suitable locations for implementing policies to reduce deforestation risks.