Risk factors for lung function decline in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease in a large single-centre cohort

Development of a multivariable prediction model for progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease

OBJECTIVE

To develop a multivariable model for predicting the progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) over 52 weeks.

METHODS

We used logistic regression models to analyse associations between candidate predictors assessed at baseline and progression of SSc-ILD (absolute decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) % predicted >5% or death) over 52 weeks in the placebo group of the SENSCIS trial. Analyses were performed in the overall placebo group and in a subgroup with early and/or inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis (<18 months since first non-Raynaud symptom, elevated inflammatory markers, and/or modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) >18) at baseline. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

In the overall placebo group (n=288), the performance of the final multivariable model for predicting SSc-ILD progression was moderate (apparent AUC: 0.63). A stronger model, with an apparent AUC of 0.75, was developed in the subgroup with early and/or inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis at baseline (n=155). This model included diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLco) % predicted, time since first non-Raynaud symptom, mRSS, anti-topoisomerase I antibody status and mycophenolate use.

CONCLUSION

Prediction of the progression of SSc-ILD may require different approaches in distinct subgroups of patients. Among patients with SSc-ILD and early and/or inflammatory SSc and/or severe skin fibrosis, a nomogram based on a multivariable model may be of value for identifying patients at risk of short-term progression.

Late-age onset systemic sclerosis-clinical and serological characteristics

The clinical course and serological profile of the late-age onset systemic sclerosis (LAO SSc) and the early-age onset SSc (EAO SSc) was compared. The study enrolled 157 patients that fulfilled the American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) classification criteria for systemic sclerosis (SSc). Among them, 69 had diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) and 88 limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc). Within this population, 39 patients developed the disease over the age of 60 years old (LAO SSc) and 118 prior to that age (EAO SSc). The subtype of SSc, the incidence of internal organ involvement, the prevalence of malignancy, mortality, and serological profile were compared between both groups. The LAO SSc was observed in 39 of total 157 patients with SSc and exhibited a notably higher prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (p = 0.014), heart involvement (p = 0.0014), and renal involvement (p = 0.0002). The occurrence of arthralgias was less common in the LAO SSc group (p = 0.02) than in the EAO SSc group. Furthermore, in the LAO SSc group, the prevalence of anti -RNA polymerase III antibodies (p = 0.008) and antiPM/Scl antibodies (p = 0.048) were significantly lower than in the EAO SSc group. On the other hand, higher anti-Th/To antibody levels (p = 0.014) were recorded in the LAO SSc group. Approximately 25% of SSc patients experienced a delayed onset of the disease after the age of 60 years old. Some clinical and serological features of late-onset SSc were markedly different from that in early-onset disease. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that involvement of internal organs such as heart and kidneys, as well as pulmonary arterial hypertension were much more often observed among patients with LAO SSc which in our suggestion may be referred to age-related co-morbidities. Key Points • Significant differences in clinical and serological profile of the disease were found between late-age onset (LAO) and early-age onset (EAO) SSc. • Incidence of dcSSc as well as prevalence of anti-RNA polymerase III and anti-PM/Scl antibodies were found to be lower in patients over 60 years old compared to those before 60, but regardless of the age of the disease onset. • Internal organ morbidity, notably pulmonary arterial hypertension, renal impairment and heart disease were significantly more common in elder SSc patients as well as in those with late disease onset. • These findings may suggest an impact of age-related co-morbidities on the course of late-age onset SSc.

Prevalence of the limited vs. extensive scleroderma-related interstitial lung disease at the time of diagnosis of SSc-ILD based on Goh et al. criteria. Systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Goh et al. proposed in 2008 a classificatory algorithm of limited or extensive SSc-ILD. The prevalence of both at the time of diagnosis of SSc-ILD is not known with exactitude.

METHODS

The review was undertaken by means of MEDLINE and SCOPUS from 2008 to 2023 and using the terms: "systemic", "scleroderma" or "interstitial lung disease" [MesH]. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used for the qualifying assessment for observational studies and the Jadad scale for clinical trials. The inverse variance-weighted method was performed.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven studies were initially included in the systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA). Of these, 17 studies had no overlapping data. They reported data from 2,149 patients, 1,369 (81.2%) were female. The mean age was 52.4 (SD 6.6) years. 45.2% of the patients had the diffuse subtype and 54.8% had the limited or sine scleroderma subtype. A total of 38.7% of the patients showed positive antitopoisomerase antibodies (ATA) and 14.2% positive anticentromere antibodies (ACA). The mean percentage of forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline was 80.5% (SD 6.9) and of diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLco) was 59.1% (SD 9.6). Twelve studies presented SSc-ILD extension data adjusted for PFTs and were included in the meta-analysis. The 10 observational cohort studies were analyzed separately. The overall percentage of limited extension was estimated at 63.5% (95%CI 55.3-73; p < 0.001) using the random-effects model. Heterogeneity between studies (I2) was 9.8% (95%CI 0-68.2%) with the random-effects model. Extensive pulmonary involvement was estimated at 34.3% (95%CI 26-45.4; p < 0.001). Heterogeneity between studies (I2) was 0% (95%CI 0-61.6%) with the random-effects model.

CONCLUSION

The overall percentage of limited SSc-ILD at the time of diagnosis of SSc-ILD was estimated at 63.5% and extensive at 34.3%.

Characteristics and disease course of untreated patients with interstitial lung disease associated with systemic sclerosis in a real-life two-centre cohort

BACKGROUND

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of death in systemic sclerosis (SSc). According to expert statements, not all SSc-ILD patients require pharmacological therapy.

OBJECTIVES

To describe disease characteristics and disease course in untreated SSc-ILD patients in two well characterised SSc-ILD cohorts.

METHODS

Patients were classified as treated if they had received a potential ILD-modifying drug. ILD progression in untreated patients was defined as (1) decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) from baseline of ≥10% or (2) decline in FVC of 5%-9% associated with a decline in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO)≥15% over 12±3 months or (3) start of any ILD-modifying treatment or (4) increase in the ILD extent during follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with non-prescription of ILD-modifying treatment at baseline. Prognostic factors for progression in untreated patients were tested by multivariate Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of 386 SSc-ILD included patients, 287 (74%) were untreated at baseline. Anticentromere antibodies (OR: 6.75 (2.16-21.14), p=0.001), limited extent of ILD (OR: 2.39 (1.19-4.82), p=0.015), longer disease duration (OR: 1.04 (1.00-1.08), p=0.038) and a higher DLCO (OR: 1.02 (1.01-1.04), p=0.005) were independently associated with no ILD-modifying treatment at baseline. Among 234 untreated patients, the 3 year cumulative incidence of progression was 39.9% (32.9-46.2). Diffuse cutaneous SSc and extensive lung fibrosis independently predicted ILD progression in untreated patients.

CONCLUSION

As about 40% of untreated patients show ILD progression after 3 years and effective and safe therapies for SSc-ILD are available, our results support a change in clinical practice in selecting patients for treatment.

Heterogeneity of determining disease severity, clinical course and outcomes in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease: a systematic literature review

Objective The course of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is highly variable and different from continuously progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Most proposed definitions of progressive pulmonary fibrosis or SSc-ILD severity are based on the research data from patients with IPF and are not validated for patients with SSc-ILD. Our study aimed to gather the current evidence for severity, progression and outcomes of SSc-ILD.Methods A systematic literature review to search for definitions of severity, progression and outcomes recorded for SSc-ILD was performed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library up to 1 August 2023.Results A total of 9054 papers were reviewed and 342 were finally included. The most frequent tools used for the definition of SSc-ILD progression and severity were combined changes of carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) and forced vital capacity (FVC), isolated FVC or DLCO changes, high-resolution CT (HRCT) extension and composite algorithms including pulmonary function test, clinical signs and HRCT data. Mortality was the most frequently reported long-term event, both from all causes or ILD related.Conclusions The studies presenting definitions of SSc-ILD 'progression', 'severity' and 'outcome' show a large heterogeneity. These results emphasise the need for developing a standardised, consensus definition of severe SSc-ILD, to link a disease specific definition of progression as a surrogate outcome for clinical trials and clinical practice.PROSPERO registration number CRD42022379254.Cite Now.

Recent innovations in the screening and diagnosis of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease

INTRODUCTION

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Risk of developing progressive ILD is highest among patients with diffuse cutaneous disease, positive anti-topoisomerase I antibody, and elevated acute phase reactants. With the FDA approval of two medications and a pipeline of novel therapeutics in trials, early recognition and intervention is critical. High-resolution computed tomography of the chest is the current gold standard test for diagnosis of ILD. Yet, it is not offered as a screening tool to all patients due to which ILD can be missed in up to a third of patients. There is a need to develop and validate more innovative screening modalities.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we provide an overview of screening and diagnosis of SSc-ILD, highlighting the recent innovations particularly the role of soluble serologic, radiomic (quantitative lung imaging, lung ultrasound), and breathomic (exhaled breath analysis) biomarkers in the early detection of SSc-ILD.

EXPERT OPINION

There is remarkable progress in the development of new radiomics and serum biomarkers in diagnosing SSc-ILD. There is an urgent need for conceptualizing and testing composite ILD screening strategies that incorporate these biomarkers.