Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients.

RESULTS

Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment.

SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Detection of IgM-rheumatoid factor and anti-citrullinated protein antibodies in healthy horses and their comparison

Rheumatoid factor (RF) is used in human and veterinary medicine in the form of IgM RF traditionally to support the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In the latest diagnostic criteria, presence of anti - citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) was added to the grading system for the diagnosis of RA in humans. A change which is not integrated or routinely used in veterinary medicine. The criteria changed partly because of RF's diagnostic shortcomings, which include its increased titer detection in humans with non-rheumatoid diseases, inability to predict the disease and increased titers over the limit in the older population. Clinical signs similar to human RA were reported in horses in a condition known as idiopathic polysynovitis. Similarities in the clinical presentation to RA raised a question to the usability of RF and ACPA in horses. In our study, sixty clinically healthy horses, ranging from 3 days to 30 years of age, were evaluated for their serum levels of IgM RF. 55 of these horses were tested for ACPA, using methods of ELISA measuring Anti - CFG (Anti citrullinated fibrinogen antibody). The results of the study demonstrated the existence of an age-dependent increase in the level of IgM RF up to the age of about 9 years and ACPA's independence of the horse's age as well as both markers independence of the horse sex.

Drug-free remission: the goal of the future in management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis according to the “treat-to-target” strategy requires achievement of remission or low disease activity when remission cannot be achieved (mostly in patients with advanced disease). The assessment of remission and low disease activity is based on a number of definitions depending on the applied instruments which do not always correspond to one another.

The role of biomarkers and imaging techniques (ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging) in predicting the risk for disease relapse after achieving remission and tapering disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs treatment are presented. The concept of achieving the full control of inflammation including residua synovial inflammation and drug free-remission is discussed.

IL4 gene polymorphisms in Iranian patients with autoimmune hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic long-lasting hepatocellular inflammation associated with circulating auto antibodies. In addition to the genetic component, several cytokines have been implicated to be involved in AIH. This study was performed to investigate potential associations of AIH with IL4 gene variants.

METHOD

The studied alleles and genotypes included: IL4G/T allele polymorphisms at position -1098 and C/T allele polymorphisms at two positions (-33 and -590) on the IL4 gene, in addition to the A/G allele polymorphisms at position +1902 on the IL4RA gene.

RESULT

The IL4 C allele and CC genotype at position -590 and TT genotype at position -33 had a significantly higher frequency in AIH patients.

CONCLUSION

This study identified the IL4 C allele and CC genotype susceptibility gene in AIH, which will provide better insights into the mechanisms of AIH and potential therapeutic interventions.

Response to methotrexate predicts long-term patient-related outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis

This study was conducted to investigate the predictive value of the initial response to methotrexate (MTX) on long-term patient-related outcomes (PROs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). All RA patients starting MTX treatment between 1980 and 1987 in our department were enrolled in a prospective observational study. After an average of 18 years, patient-related outcomes were assessed in three dimensions according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Statistical analyses employed multivariable models with baseline values for age, gender, disease duration, rheumatoid factor positivity, disease activity, response to MTX after 1 year and continuous use of MTX as covariates. The 271 patients enrolled had a mean disease duration of 8.5 years, a mean number of swollen joints of 18 (out of 32), and a mean erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 55 mm/h. After 18 years, PRO was available in 89 patients (33 %). A clinical improvement of at least 20 % 1 year after the initiation of MTX was associated with a favourable outcome in all three dimensions of the ICF, independent of continuation of MTX (p < 0.05). The initial response to MTX is an independent predictor of PRO in RA as assessed after an average of 18 years.

A genetic predictive model for canine hip dysplasia: integration of Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) and candidate gene approaches

Canine hip dysplasia is one of the most prevalent developmental orthopedic diseases in dogs worldwide. Unfortunately, the success of eradication programs against this disease based on radiographic diagnosis is low. Adding the use of diagnostic genetic tools to the current phenotype-based approach might be beneficial. The aim of this study was to develop a genetic prognostic test for early diagnosis of hip dysplasia in Labrador Retrievers. To develop our DNA test, 775 Labrador Retrievers were recruited. For each dog, a blood sample and a ventrodorsal hip radiograph were taken. Dogs were divided into two groups according to their FCI hip score: control (A/B) and case (D/E). C dogs were not included in the sample. Genetic characterization combining a GWAS and a candidate gene strategy using SNPs allowed a case-control population association study. A mathematical model which included 7 SNPs was developed using logistic regression. The model showed a good accuracy (Area under the ROC curve = 0.85) and was validated in an independent population of 114 dogs. This prognostic genetic test represents a useful tool for choosing the most appropriate therapeutic approach once genetic predisposition to hip dysplasia is known. Therefore, it allows a more individualized management of the disease. It is also applicable during genetic selection processes, since breeders can benefit from the information given by this test as soon as a blood sample can be collected, and act accordingly. In the authors' opinion, a shift towards genomic screening might importantly contribute to reducing canine hip dysplasia in the future. In conclusion, based on genetic and radiographic information from Labrador Retrievers with hip dysplasia, we developed an accurate predictive genetic test for early diagnosis of hip dysplasia in Labrador Retrievers. However, further research is warranted in order to evaluate the validity of this genetic test in other dog breeds.

Assessment of protein tyrosine phosphatases number 22 polymorphism prevalence among rheumatoid arthritis patients: A study on Iranian patients

BACKGROUND

It has been proposed that Trp (620) allotype of protein tyrosine phosphatases number 22 (PTPN22) gene can intensify the susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other autoimmune diseases. Thus, in this study, the prevalence of this polymorphism has been surveyed among RA patients compared with healthy persons. The samples were selected from Isfahan province (one of the most populated area of Iran).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this study, 100 patients (case group) and 100 healthy persons (control group) were participated voluntarily. The case group was selected from people who had referred to the rheumatology clinic of AlZahra University Hospital to follow-up their treatment and change their drugs dosage. The control group members, who were living in Isfahan province, mutually had similar age with patients. On a total, 22% of the case group was male and 75% of the control group was female. DNA was extracted from the blood sample of all cases and controls and the PTPN22 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) C1858> T gene polymorphism were studied using the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method.

RESULTS

PTPN22 SNP C1858> T gene polymorphism was observed in 11 persons (11%) of the case group and 8 persons (8%) of the control group.

CONCLUSION

The results show that the difference was not statistically significant in Isfahan RA population (P = 0.47; OR = 1.42; 95% CI 0.55-3.69). Although, another study on Iranian population had shown that this polymorphism confers susceptibility to RA.

Inhibition of adjuvant-induced arthritis by nasal administration of novel synthetic peptides from heat shock protein 65

Background

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic systemic inflammatory disease mediated by T cells. The aim of the present study was to investigate the therapeutic efficacy of synthetic peptides (HP-R1, HP-R2 and HP-R3), derived from the sequence of 65-kD mycobacterial heat shock protein (HSP), in the treatment of RA using adjuvant-induced arthritis (AA) animal model.

Methods

AA was induced by a single intradermal injection Freund’s complete adjuvant in male Lewis rats. At the first clinical sign of disease, rats were administered nasally by micropipette of peptides or phosphate buffer saline (PBS). Disease progression was monitored by measurement of body weight, arthritis score and paw swelling. The changes of histopathology were assessed by hematoxylin eosin staining. The serum levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) - alpha and interleukin (IL)-4 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

Results

The peptides efficiently inhibited the footpad swelling and arthritic symptoms in AA rats. The synthetic peptides displayed significantly less inflammatory cellular infiltration and synovium hyperplasia than model controls. This effect was associated with a suppression of pro-inflammatory cytokine TNF-alpha production and an increase of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-4 production after peptides treatment.

Conclusions

These results suggest that the synthetic peptides derived from HSP65 induce highly effective protection against AA, which is mediated in part by down-regulation of inflammatory cytokines, and support the view that the synthetic peptides is a potential therapy for RA that may help to diminish both joint inflammation and destruction.

Prediction of methotrexate clinical response in Portuguese rheumatoid arthritis patients: implication of MTHFR rs1801133 and ATIC rs4673993 polymorphisms

Objective. Methotrexate (MTX), the most used drug in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment, showing variability in clinical response, is often associated with genetic polymorphisms. This study aimed to elucidate the role of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T and aminoimidazole carboxamide adenosine ribonucleotide transformylase (ATIC) T675C polymorphisms and clinicopathological variables in clinical response to MTX in Portuguese RA patients. Methods. Study included 233 RA patients treated with MTX for at least six months. MTHFR C677T and ATIC T675C polymorphisms were genotyped and clinicopathological variables were collected. Statistical analyses were performed and binary logistic regression method adjusted to possible confounding variables. Results. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that MTHFR 677TT (OR = 4.63; P = 0.013) and ATIC 675T carriers (OR = 5.16; P = 0.013) were associated with over 4-fold increased risk for nonresponse. For clinicopathological variables, noncurrent smokers (OR = 7.98; P = 0.001), patients positive to anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (OR = 3.53; P = 0.004) and antinuclear antibodies (OR = 2.28; P = 0.045), with higher health assessment questionnaire score (OR = 2.42; P = 0.007), and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug users (OR = 2.77; P = 0.018) were also associated with nonresponse. Contrarily, subcutaneous administration route (OR = 0.11; P < 0.001) was associated with response. Conclusion. Our study suggests that MTHFR C677T and ATIC T675C genotyping combined with clinicopathological data may help to identify patients whom will not benefit from MTX treatment and, therefore, assist clinicians in personalizing RA treatment.

Role of cytolytic impairment of natural killer and natural killer T-cell populations in rheumatoid arthritis

Innate immunity has been widely accepted as one of the major cause for the alteration of immune system and progression of autoimmune diseases. Natural killer (NK) cells and natural killer T (NKT) cells have not been explored in clinical studies for their cytolytic components in association with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The literature available for these potential candidates is controversial in terms of their protective or pathogenic role in disease severity of RA. Present study explained the role of NK and NKT cell populations and intracellular expression of caspases, perforin, granzymes A and B in the pathogenesis of RA in patients. DAS28 score was measured as the disease severity. Immunochemical parameters were studied by using monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against different cell types in flow cytometry. Results indicated that that whatsoever is the change in percentage cell populations, ratio of NK and NKT cell populations always remained poised even in the disease state. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels were elevated with increased intracellular active caspase-3, perforin and granzyme expression in RA patients. Their elevated expressions were positively correlated with DAS28 suggesting the pathogenic role in RA. The expressions of pro-inflammatory cytokines were enhanced while the anti-inflammatory cytokine expressions were diminished in the patients. Present study may point towards futuristic therapeutic targets which can fascinate the pharmaceutical industries to selectively target these molecules in designing the therapeutic strategy of RA patients.

Influence of interleukin-4 gene polymorphisms and interleukin-4 serum level on susceptibility and severity of rheumatoid arthritis in Egyptian population

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease in which interleukin-4 (IL-4) plays an important role. This study aimed to investigate the influence of IL-4 variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs) and IL-4-590 promoter polymorphisms on RA susceptibility, activity and severity in Egyptian population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One hundred and seventy-two RA patients and 172 controls were enrolled in this study. IL-4 VNTR and IL-4-590 promoter polymorphisms were genotyped using polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Serum IL-4 and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptides (anti-CCPs) antibody concentrations were measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

RESULTS

Subjects with IL-4-590 TT genotype were significantly more likely to develop RA. IL-4 VNTR 1/1 genotype, IL-4-590 TT and CT genotypes were significantly more associated with erosive RA and positive anti-CCP antibody. RA severity parameters were significantly increased, while, IL-4 level was significantly decreased in RA patients with IL-4 VNTR 1/1 and IL-4-590 TT genotypes. Only patients with IL-4-590 TT genotype showed a significant increase of all RA activity parameters.

CONCLUSION

IL-4 VNTR and IL-4-590 promoter polymorphisms may be helpful for assessing RA severity in Egyptian population. Moreover, IL-4-590 promoter polymorphism may be associated with increased risk and activity of RA.

Old drugs, old problems: where do we stand in prediction of rheumatoid arthritis responsiveness to methotrexate and other synthetic DMARDs?

Methotrexate (MTX) is the central drug in the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other immune mediated inflammatory diseases. It is widely used either in monotherapy or in association with other synthetic and biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Although comprehensive clinical experience exists for MTX and synthetic DMARDs, to date it has not been possible to preview correctly whether or not a patient will respond to treatment with these drugs. Predicting response to MTX and other DMARDs would allow the selection of patients based on their likelihood of response, thus enabling individualized therapy and avoiding unnecessary adverse effects and elevated costs. However, studies analyzing this issue have struggled to obtain consistent, replicable results and no factor has yet been recognized to individually distinguish responders from nonresponders at treatment start. Variables possibly influencing drug effectiveness may be disease-, patient- or treatment-related, clinical or biological (genetic and nongenetic). In this review we summarize current evidence on predictors of response to MTX and other synthetic DMARDs, discuss possible causes for the heterogeneity observed and address its translation into daily clinical practice.

Elevated rheumatoid factor and long term risk of rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study, the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Blood was drawn in 1981-83, and participants were followed until 10 August 2010.

SETTING

Copenhagen general population.

PARTICIPANTS

9712 white Danish individuals from the general population aged 20-100 years without rheumatoid arthritis at study entry.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rheumatoid arthritis according to baseline plasma IgM rheumatoid factor level categories of 25-50, 50.1-100, and >100, versus <25 IU/mL.

RESULTS

Rheumatoid factor levels were similar from age 20 to 100 years. During 187,659 person years, 183 individuals developed rheumatoid arthritis. In healthy individuals, a doubling in levels of rheumatoid factor was associated with a 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.7 to 4.0) increased risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis, with a similar trend for most other autoimmune rheumatic diseases. The cumulative incidence of rheumatoid arthritis increased with increasing rheumatoid factor category (P(trend)<0.0001). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for rheumatoid arthritis were 3.6 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 7.3) for rheumatoid factor levels of 25-50 IU/mL, 6.0 (3.4 to 10) for 50.1-100 IU/mL, and 26 (15 to 46) for >100 IU/mL, compared with <25 IU/mL (P(trend)<0.0001). The highest absolute 10 year risk of rheumatoid arthritis of 32% was observed in 50-69 years old women who smoked with rheumatoid factor levels >100 IU/mL.

CONCLUSION

Individuals in the general population with elevated rheumatoid factor have up to 26-fold greater long term risk of rheumatoid arthritis, and up to 32% 10 year absolute risk of rheumatoid arthritis. These novel findings may lead to revision of guidelines for early referral to a rheumatologist and early arthritis clinics based on rheumatoid factor testing.

Differential gene expression profiles may differentiate responder and nonresponder patients with rheumatoid arthritis for methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy and MTX plus tumor necrosis factor inhibitor combined therapy

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate whether the differential gene expression profiles of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could distinguish responders from nonresponders to methotrexate (MTX) and, in the case of MTX nonresponders, responsiveness to MTX plus anti-tumor necrosis factor-α (anti-TNF) combined therapy.

METHODS

We evaluated 25 patients with RA taking MTX 15-20 mg/week as a monotherapy (8 responders and 17 nonresponders). All MTX nonresponders received infliximab and were reassessed after 20 weeks to evaluate their anti-TNF responsiveness using the European League Against Rheumatism response criteria. A differential gene expression analysis from peripheral blood mononuclear cells was performed in terms of hierarchical gene clustering, and an evaluation of differentially expressed genes was performed using the significance analysis of microarrays program.

RESULTS

Hierarchical gene expression clustering discriminated MTX responders from nonresponders, and MTX plus anti-TNF responders from nonresponders. The evaluation of only highly modulated genes (fold change > 1.3 or < 0.7) yielded 5 induced (4 antiapoptotic and CCL4) and 4 repressed (4 proapoptotic) genes in MTX nonresponders compared to responders. In MTX plus anti-TNF non-responders, the CCL4, CD83, and BCL2A1 genes were induced in relation to responders.

CONCLUSION

Study of the gene expression profiles of RA peripheral blood cells permitted differentiation of responders from nonresponders to MTX and anti-TNF. Several candidate genes in MTX non-responders (CCL4, HTRA2, PRKCD, BCL2A1, CAV1, TNIP1, CASP8AP2, MXD1, and BTG2) and 3 genes in MTX plus anti-TNF nonresponders (CCL4, CD83, and BCL2A1) were identified for further study.

Sustained rheumatoid arthritis remission is uncommon in clinical practice

INTRODUCTION

Remission is an important goal of therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but data on duration of remission are lacking. Our objective was to describe the duration of remission in RA, assessed by different criteria.

METHODS

We evaluated patients from the Brigham and Women's Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study (BRASS) not in remission at baseline with at least 2 years of follow-up. Remission was assessed according to the Disease Activity Score 28-C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP4), Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI), and Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) scores, and the recently proposed American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) criteria for remission. Analyses were performed by using Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

RESULTS

We identified 871 subjects with ≥ 2 years of follow-up. Of these subjects, 394 were in remission at one or more time-points and not in remission at baseline, according to at least one of the following criteria: DAS28-CRP < 2.6 (n = 309), DAS28-CRP < 2.3 (n = 275), SDAI (n = 168), CDAI (n = 170), and 2010 ACR/EULAR (n = 158). The median age for the 394 subjects at entrance to BRASS was 56 years; median disease duration was 8 years; 81% were female patients; and 72% were seropositive. Survival analysis performed separately for each remission criterion demonstrated that < 50% of subjects remained in remission 1 year later. Median remission survival time was 1 year. Kaplan-Meier curves of the various remission criteria did not significantly differ (P = 0.29 according to the log-rank test).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that in clinical practice, a minority of RA patients are in sustained remission.

The C677T polymorphism in the MTHFR gene is associated with the toxicity of methotrexate in a Spanish rheumatoid arthritis population

OBJECTIVE

Methotrexate (MTX) is the first-choice drug for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. However, 30% of RA patients discontinue therapy within 1 year, usually because of adverse effects. Previous studies have reported conflicting results on the association of polymorphisms in the MTHFR gene with the toxicity of MTX in RA. The aim of this study was to assess the involvement of the C677T and A1298C polymorphisms in the MTHFR gene in the toxicity of MTX in a Spanish RA population.

METHODS

The study included retrospectively 468 Spanish RA patients treated with MTX. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping was performed using the oligonucleotide microarray technique. Allele and genotype association analyses with regard to MTX toxicity and a haplotype association test were also performed.

RESULTS

Eighty-four out of the 468 patients (18%) had to discontinue therapy due to adverse effects or MTX toxicity. The C677T polymorphism (rs1801133) was associated with increased MTX toxicity [odds ratio (OR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.98, p = 0.0428], and the strongest association was shown in the recessive model (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.08-3.53, p = 0.0246). The A1298C polymorphism (rs1801131) was not associated with increased MTX toxicity (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.65-1.38, p = 0.761). A borderline significant risk haplotype was found: 677T-1298A (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.00-1.96, p = 0.0518).

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that the C677T polymorphism in the MTHFR gene is associated with MTX toxicity in a Spanish RA population.