Opposing effects of plant traits on diversification

Species diversity can vary dramatically across lineages due to differences in speciation and extinction rates. Here, we explore the effects of several plant traits on diversification, finding that most traits have opposing effects on diversification. For example, outcrossing may increase the efficacy of selection and adaptation but also decrease mate availability, two processes with contrasting effects on lineage persistence. Such opposing trait effects can manifest as differences in diversification rates that depend on ecological context, spatiotemporal scale, and associations with other traits. The complexity of pathways linking traits to diversification suggests that the mechanistic underpinnings behind their correlations may be difficult to interpret with any certainty, and context dependence means that the effects of specific traits on diversification are likely to differ across multiple lineages and timescales. This calls for taxonomically and context-controlled approaches to studies that correlate traits and diversification.

Landscape Evolution as a Diversification Driver in Freshwater Fishes

The exceptional concentration of vertebrate diversity in continental freshwaters has been termed the “freshwater fish paradox,” with > 15,000 fish species representing more than 20% of all vertebrate species compressed into tiny fractions of the Earth’s land surface area (<0.5%) or total aquatic habitat volume (<0.001%). This study asks if the fish species richness of the world’s river basins is explainable in terms of river captures using topographic metrics as proxies. The River Capture Hypothesis posits that drainage-network rearrangements have accelerated biotic diversification through their combined effects on dispersal, speciation, and extinction. Yet rates of river capture are poorly constrained at the basin scale worldwide. Here we assess correlations between fish species density (data for 14,953 obligate freshwater fish species) and basin-wide metrics of landscape evolution (data for 3,119 river basins), including: topography (elevation, average relief, slope, drainage area) and climate (average rainfall and air temperature). We assess the results in the context of both static landscapes (e.g., species-area and habitat heterogeneity relationships) and transient landscapes (e.g., river capture, tectonic activity, landscape disequilibrium). We also relax assumptions of functional neutrality of basins (tropical vs. extratropical, tectonically stable vs. active terrains). We found a disproportionate number of freshwater species in large, lowland river basins of tropical South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, under predictable conditions of large geographic area, tropical climate, low topographic relief, and high habitat volume (i.e., high rainfall rates). However, our results show that these conditions are only necessary, but not fully sufficient, to explain the basins with the highest diversity. Basins with highest diversity are all located on tectonically stable regions, places where river capture is predicted to be most conducive to the formation of high fish species richness over evolutionary timescales. Our results are consistent with predictions of several landscape evolution models, including the River Capture Hypothesis, Mega Capture Hypothesis, and Intermediate Capture Rate Hypothesis, and support conclusions of numerical modeling studies indicating landscape transience as a mechanistic driver of net diversification in riverine and riparian organisms with widespread continental distributions.

Species-Specific Means and Within-Species Variance in Glucocorticoid Hormones and Speciation Rates in Birds

At macroevolutionary scales, stress physiology may have consequences for species diversification and subspecies richness. Populations that exploit new resources or undergo range expansion should cope with new environmental challenges, which could favor higher mean stress responses. Within-species variation in the stress response may also play a role in mediating the speciation process: in species with broad variation, there will always be some individuals that can tolerate an unpredictable environment, whereas in species with narrow variation there will be fewer individuals that are able to thrive in a new ecological niche. We tested for the evolutionary relationship between stress response, speciation rate, and subspecies richness in birds by relying on the HormoneBase repository, from which we calculated within- and among-species variation in baseline (BL) and stress-induced (SI) corticosterone levels. To estimate speciation rates, we applied Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures that can account for variation in diversification rate among clades and through time. Contrary to our predictions, lineages with higher diversification rates were not characterized by higher BL or SI levels of corticosterone either at the tips or at the deeper nodes of the phylogeny. We also found no association between mean hormone levels and subspecies richness. Within-species variance in corticosterone levels showed close to zero repeatability, thus it is highly unlikely that this is a species-specific trait that influences diversification rates. These results imply that stress physiology may play a minor, if any, role in determining speciation rates in birds.

Are rates of species diversification and body size evolution coupled in the ferns?

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Understanding the relationship between phenotypic evolution and lineage diversification is a central goal of evolutionary biology. To extend our understanding of the role morphological evolution plays in the diversification of plants, we examined the relationship between leaf size evolution and lineage diversification across ferns.

METHODS

We tested for an association between body size evolution and lineage diversification using a comparative phylogenetic approach that combined a time-calibrated phylogeny and leaf size data set for 2654 fern species. Rates of leaf size change and lineage diversification were estimated using BAMM, and rate correlations were performed for rates obtained for all families and individual species. Rates and patterns of rate-rate correlation were also analyzed separately for terrestrial and epiphytic taxa.

KEY RESULTS

We find no significant correlation between rates of leaf area change and lineage diversification, nor was there a difference in this pattern when growth habit is considered. Our results are consistent with the findings of an earlier study that reported decoupled rates of body size evolution and diversification in the Polypodiaceae, but conflict with a recent study that reported a positive correlation between body size evolution and lineage diversification rates in the tree fern family Cyatheaceae.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that lineage diversification in ferns is largely decoupled from shifts in body size, in contrast to several other groups of organisms. Speciation in ferns appears to be primarily driven by hybridization and isolation along elevational gradients, rather than adaptive radiations featuring prominent morphological restructuring. The exceptional diversity of leaf morphologies in ferns appears to reflect a combination of ecophysiological constraints and adaptations that are not key innovations.

An ant genus-group (Prenolepis) illuminates the biogeography and drivers of insect diversification in the Indo-Pacific

The Malay Archipelago and the tropical South Pacific (hereafter the Indo-Pacific region) are considered biodiversity hotspots, yet a general understanding of the origins and diversification of species-rich groups in the region remains elusive. We aimed to test hypotheses for the evolutionary processes driving insect species diversity in the Indo-Pacific using a higher-level and comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis for an ant clade consisting of seven genera. We estimated divergence times and reconstructed the biogeographical history of ant species in the Prenolepis genus-group (Formicidae: Formicinae: Lasiini). We used a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to infer ancestral geographical ranges utilizing a biogeographic model that includes founder-event speciation. Ancestral state reconstructions of the ants' ecological preferences, and diversification rates were estimated for selected Indo-Pacific clades. Overall, we report that faunal interchange between Asia and Australia has occurred since at least 20-25 Ma, and early dispersal to the Fijian Basin happened during the early and mid-Miocene (ca. 10-20 Ma). Differences in diversification rates across Indo-Pacific clades may be related to ecological preference breadth, which in turn may have facilitated geographical range expansions. Ancient dispersal routes suggested by our results agree with the palaeogeography of the region. For this particular group of ants, the rapid orogenesis in New Guinea and possibly subsequent ecological shifts may have promoted their rapid diversification and widespread distribution across the Indo-Pacific.

Uncovering Higher-Taxon Diversification Dynamics from Clade Age and Species-Richness Data

The relationship between clade age and species richness has been increasingly used in macroevolutionary studies as evidence for ecologically versus time-dependent diversification processes. However, theory suggests that phylogenetic structure, age type (crown or stem age), and taxonomic delimitation can affect estimates of the age-richness correlation (ARC) considerably. We currently lack an integrative understanding of how these different factors affect ARCs, which in turn, obscures further interpretations. To assess its informative breadth, we characterize ARC behavior with simulated and empirical phylogenies, considering phylogenetic structure and both crown and stem ages. First, we develop a two-state birth-death model to simulate phylogenies including the origin of higher taxa and a hierarchical taxonomy to determine ARC expectations under ecologically and time-dependent diversification processes. Then, we estimate ARCs across various taxonomic ranks of extant amphibians, squamate reptiles, mammals, birds, and flowering plants. We find that our model reproduces the general ARC trends of a wide range of biological systems despite the particularities of taxonomic practice within each, suggesting that the model is adequate to establish a framework of ARC null expectations for different diversification processes when taxa are defined with a hierarchical taxonomy. ARCs estimated with crown ages were positive in all the scenarios we studied, including ecologically dependent processes. Negative ARCs were only found at less inclusive taxonomic ranks, when considering stem age, and when rates varied among clades. This was the case both in ecologically and time-dependent processes. Together, our results warn against direct interpretations of single ARC estimates and advocate for a more integrative use of ARCs across age types and taxonomic ranks in diversification studies. [Birth-Death models; crown age; diversity dependence; extinction; phylogenetic structure; speciation; stem age; taxonomy; time dependence; tree simulations.].

Age-Dependent and Lineage-Dependent Speciation and Extinction in the Imbalance of Phylogenetic Trees

It is known that phylogenetic trees are more imbalanced than expected from a birth-death model with constant rates of speciation and extinction, and also that imbalance can be better fit by allowing the rate of speciation to decrease as the age of the parent species increases. If imbalance is measured in more detail, at nodes within trees as a function of the number of species descended from the nodes, age-dependent models predict levels of imbalance comparable to real trees for small numbers of descendent species, but predicted imbalance approaches an asymptote not found in real trees as the number of descendent species becomes large. Age-dependence must therefore be complemented by another process such as inheritance of different rates along different lineages, which is known to predict insufficient imbalance at nodes with few descendent species, but can predict increasing imbalance with increasing numbers of descendent species. [Crump-Mode-Jagers process; diversification; macroevolution; taxon sampling; tree of life.].

What explains patterns of species richness? The relative importance of climatic-niche evolution, morphological evolution, and ecological limits in salamanders

A major goal of evolutionary biology and ecology is to understand why species richness varies among clades. Previous studies have suggested that variation in richness among clades might be related to variation in rates of morphological evolution among clades (e.g., body size and shape). Other studies have suggested that richness patterns might be related to variation in rates of climatic-niche evolution. However, few studies, if any, have tested the relative importance of these variables in explaining patterns of richness among clades. Here, we test their relative importance among major clades of Plethodontidae, the most species-rich family of salamanders. Earlier studies have suggested that climatic-niche evolution explains patterns of diversification among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. A subsequent study stated that rates of morphological evolution instead explained patterns of species richness among plethodontid clades (along with "ecological limits" on richness of clades, leading to saturation of clades with species, given limited resources). However, they did not consider climatic-niche evolution. Using phylogenetic multiple regression, we show that rates of climatic-niche evolution explain most variation in richness among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. We find little evidence that ecological limits explain patterns of richness among plethodontid clades. We also test whether rates of morphological and climatic-niche evolution are correlated, and find that they are not. Overall, our results help explain richness patterns in a major amphibian group and provide possibly the first test of the relative importance of climatic niches and morphological evolution in explaining diversity patterns.

On age and species richness of higher taxa

Many studies have tried to identify factors that explain differences in numbers of species between clades against the background assumption that older clades contain more species because they have had more time for diversity to accumulate. The finding in several recent studies that species richness of clades is decoupled from stem age has been interpreted as evidence for ecological limits to species richness. Here we demonstrate that the absence of a positive age-diversity relationship, or even a negative relationship, may also occur when taxa are defined based on time or some correlate of time such as genetic distance or perhaps morphological distinctness. Thus, inferring underlying processes from distributions of species across higher taxa requires caution concerning the way in which higher taxa are defined. When this definition is unclear, crown age is superior to stem age as a measure of clade age.

Nested radiations and the pulse of angiosperm diversification: increased diversification rates often follow whole genome duplications

Our growing understanding of the plant tree of life provides a novel opportunity to uncover the major drivers of angiosperm diversity. Using a time-calibrated phylogeny, we characterized hot and cold spots of lineage diversification across the angiosperm tree of life by modeling evolutionary diversification using stepwise AIC (MEDUSA). We also tested the whole-genome duplication (WGD) radiation lag-time model, which postulates that increases in diversification tend to lag behind established WGD events. Diversification rates have been incredibly heterogeneous throughout the evolutionary history of angiosperms and reveal a pattern of 'nested radiations' - increases in net diversification nested within other radiations. This pattern in turn generates a negative relationship between clade age and diversity across both families and orders. We suggest that stochastically changing diversification rates across the phylogeny explain these patterns. Finally, we demonstrate significant statistical support for the WGD radiation lag-time model. Across angiosperms, nested shifts in diversification led to an overall increasing rate of net diversification and declining relative extinction rates through time. These diversification shifts are only rarely perfectly associated with WGD events, but commonly follow them after a lag period.

How tree species fill geographic and ecological space in eastern North America

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ecologists broadly accept that the number of species present within a region balances regional processes of immigration and speciation against competitive and other interactions between populations that limit distribution and constrain diversity. Although ecological theory has, for a long time, addressed the premise that ecological space can be filled to 'capacity' with species, only with the availability of time-calibrated phylogenies has it been possible to test the hypothesis that diversification slows as the number of species in a region increases. Focusing on the deciduous trees of eastern North America, this study tested predictions from competition theory concerning the distribution and abundance of species.

METHODS

Local assemblages of trees tabulated in a previous study published in 1950 were analysed. Assemblages were ordinated with respect to species composition by non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS). Distributions of trees were analysed by taxonomically nested analysis of variance, discriminant analysis based on NMS scores, and canonical correlation analysis of NMS scores and Bioclim climate variables.

KEY RESULTS

Most of the variance in species abundance and distribution was concentrated among closely related (i.e. congeneric) species, indicating evolutionary lability. Species distribution and abundance were unrelated to the number of close relatives, suggesting that competitive effects are diffuse. Distances between pairs of congeneric species in NMS space did not differ significantly from distances between more distantly related species, in contrast to the predictions of both competitive habitat partitioning and ecological sorting of species.

CONCLUSIONS

Eastern deciduous forests of North America do not appear to be saturated with species. The distributions and abundances of individual species provide little evidence of being shaped by competition from related (i.e. ecologically similar) species and, by inference, that diversification is constrained by interspecific competition.

Cretaceous environmental changes led to high extinction rates in a hyperdiverse beetle family

Background

As attested by the fossil record, Cretaceous environmental changes have significantly impacted the diversification dynamics of several groups of organisms. A major biome turnover that occurred during this period was the rise of angiosperms starting ca. 125 million years ago. Though there is evidence that the latter promoted the diversification of phytophagous insects, the response of other insect groups to Cretaceous environmental changes is still largely unknown. To gain novel insights on this issue, we assess the diversification dynamics of a hyperdiverse family of detritivorous beetles (Tenebrionidae) using molecular dating and diversification analyses.

Results

Age estimates reveal an origin after the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction (older than previously thought), followed by the diversification of major lineages during Pangaean and Gondwanan breakups. Dating analyses indicate that arid-adapted species diversified early, while most of the lineages that are adapted to more humid conditions diversified much later. Contrary to other insect groups, we found no support for a positive shift in diversification rates during the Cretaceous; instead there is evidence for an 8.5-fold increase in extinction rates that was not compensated by a joint increase in speciation rates.

Conclusions

We hypothesize that this pattern is better explained by the concomitant reduction of arid environments starting in the mid-Cretaceous, which likely negatively impacted the diversification of arid-adapted species that were predominant at that time.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-014-0220-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clade age and diversification rate variation explain disparity in species richness among water scavenger beetle (Hydrophilidae) lineages

Explaining the disparity of species richness across the tree of life is one of the great challenges in evolutionary biology. Some lineages are exceptionally species rich, while others are relatively species poor. One explanation for heterogeneity among clade richness is that older clades are more species rich because they have had more time to accrue diversity than younger clades. Alternatively, disparity in species richness may be due to among-lineage diversification rate variation. Here we investigate diversification in water scavenger beetles (Hydrophilidae), which vary in species richness among major lineages by as much as 20 fold. Using a time-calibrated phylogeny and comparative methods, we test for a relationship between clade age and species richness and for shifts in diversification rate in hydrophilids. We detected a single diversification rate increase in Megasternini, a relatively young and species rich clade whose diversity might be explained by the stunning diversity of ecological niches occupied by this clade. We find that Amphiopini, an old clade, is significantly more species poor than expected, possibly due to its restricted geographic range. The remaining lineages show a correlation between species richness and clade age, suggesting that both clade age and variation in diversification rates explain the disparity in species richness in hydrophilids. We find little evidence that transitions between aquatic, semiaquatic, and terrestrial habitats are linked to shifts in diversification rates.

The evolutionary reality of higher taxa in mammals

Species are generally regarded as a fundamental unit of biodiversity. By contrast, higher taxa such as genera and families, while widely used as biodiversity metrics and for classification and communication, are generally not believed to be shaped by shared evolutionary processes in the same way as species. We use simulations to show that processes which are important for emergence of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) at the species level, namely geographical isolation and ecological divergence, can generate evolutionary independence above the species level and thereby lead to emergence of discrete phylogenetic clusters (higher ESUs). Extending phylogenetic approaches for delimiting evolutionarily significant species to broader phylogenetic scales, we find evidence for the existence of higher ESUs in mammals. In carnivores, euungulates and lagomorphs the hierarchical level of units detected correspond, on average, to the level of family or genus in traditional taxonomy. The units in euungulates are associated with divergent patterns of body mass, consistent with occupation of distinct ecological zones. Our findings demonstrate a new framework for studying biodiversity that unifies approaches at species and higher levels, thus potentially restoring higher taxa to their historical status as natural entities.

Automatic detection of key innovations, rate shifts, and diversity-dependence on phylogenetic trees

A number of methods have been developed to infer differential rates of species diversification through time and among clades using time-calibrated phylogenetic trees. However, we lack a general framework that can delineate and quantify heterogeneous mixtures of dynamic processes within single phylogenies. I developed a method that can identify arbitrary numbers of time-varying diversification processes on phylogenies without specifying their locations in advance. The method uses reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo to move between model subspaces that vary in the number of distinct diversification regimes. The model assumes that changes in evolutionary regimes occur across the branches of phylogenetic trees under a compound Poisson process and explicitly accounts for rate variation through time and among lineages. Using simulated datasets, I demonstrate that the method can be used to quantify complex mixtures of time-dependent, diversity-dependent, and constant-rate diversification processes. I compared the performance of the method to the MEDUSA model of rate variation among lineages. As an empirical example, I analyzed the history of speciation and extinction during the radiation of modern whales. The method described here will greatly facilitate the exploration of macroevolutionary dynamics across large phylogenetic trees, which may have been shaped by heterogeneous mixtures of distinct evolutionary processes.

Renewed diversification is associated with new ecological opportunity in the Neotropical turtle ants

Ecological opportunity, defined as access to new resources free from competitors, is thought to be a catalyst for the process of adaptive radiation. Much of what we know about ecological opportunity, and the larger process of adaptive radiation, is derived from vertebrate diversification on islands. Here, we examine lineage diversification in the turtle ants (Cephalotes), a species-rich group of ants that has diversified throughout the Neotropics. We show that crown group turtle ants originated during the Eocene (around 46 mya), coincident with global warming and the origin of many other clades. We also show a marked lineage-wide slowdown in diversification rates in the Miocene. Contrasting this overall pattern, a species group associated with the young and seasonally harsh Chacoan biogeographic region underwent a recent burst of diversification. Subsequent analyses also indicated that there is significant phylogenetic clustering within the Chacoan region and that speciation rates are highest there. Together, these findings suggest that recent ecological opportunity, from successful colonization of novel habitat, may have facilitated renewed turtle ant diversification. Our findings highlight a central role of ecological opportunity within a successful continental radiation.

Rates of speciation and morphological evolution are correlated across the largest vertebrate radiation

Several evolutionary theories predict that rates of morphological change should be positively associated with the rate at which new species arise. For example, the theory of punctuated equilibrium proposes that phenotypic change typically occurs in rapid bursts associated with speciation events. However, recent phylogenetic studies have found little evidence linking these processes in nature. Here we demonstrate that rates of species diversification are highly correlated with the rate of body size evolution across the 30,000+ living species of ray-finned fishes that comprise the majority of vertebrate biological diversity. This coupling is a general feature of fish evolution and transcends vast differences in ecology and body-plan organization. Our results may reflect a widespread speciational mode of character change in living fishes. Alternatively, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that phenotypic 'evolvability'-the capacity of organisms to evolve-shapes the dynamics of speciation through time at the largest phylogenetic scales.

Macroevolutionary speciation rates are decoupled from the evolution of intrinsic reproductive isolation in Drosophila and birds

The rate at which speciation occurs varies greatly among different kinds of organisms and is frequently assumed to result from species- or clade-specific factors that influence the rate at which populations acquire reproductive isolation. This premise leads to a fundamental prediction that has never been tested: Organisms that quickly evolve prezygotic or postzygotic reproductive isolation should have faster rates of speciation than organisms that slowly acquire reproductive isolation. We combined phylogenetic estimates of speciation rates from Drosophila and birds with a method for analyzing interspecific hybridization data to test whether the rate at which individual lineages evolve reproductive isolation predicts their macroevolutionary rate of species formation. We find that some lineages evolve reproductive isolation much more quickly than others, but this variation is decoupled from rates of speciation as measured on phylogenetic trees. For the clades examined here, reproductive isolation--especially intrinsic, postzygotic isolation--does not seem to be the rate-limiting control on macroevolutionary diversification dynamics. These results suggest that factors associated with intrinsic reproductive isolation may have less to do with the tremendous variation in species diversity across the evolutionary tree of life than is generally assumed.

Is self-fertilization an evolutionary dead end?

A compound hypothesis positing that self-fertilization is an evolutionary dead end conflates two distinct claims: the transition from outcrossing to selfing is unidirectional; and the diversification rate, or the balance of the speciation and extinction rate, is negative for selfing species. Both claims have enjoyed widespread informal support for decades, but have recently come under suspicion. Sources of data that apparently contradict strongly asymmetric mating system transitions often rely on statistical phylogenetic tests plagued by profound flaws. Although recently developed models mend preceding approaches, they have been employed sparingly, and many problems remain. Theoretical investigations, genetic data and applications of new phylogenetic methods provide indirect support for an association of selfing with negative diversification rates. We lack direct tests of reversals from selfing to outcrossing, and require data concerning the genetic basis and complexity of independently evolved outcrossing adaptations. The identification of the mechanisms that limit the longevity of selfing lineages has been difficult. Limitations may include brief and variable durations of selfing lineages, as well as ongoing difficulties in relating additive genetic and nucleotide variation. Furthermore, a common line of evidence for the stability of mixed mating - based simply on its frequent occurrence - is misleading. We make specific suggestions for research programs that aim to provide a richer understanding of mating system evolution and seriously challenge Stebbins' venerable hypothesis.

Going to extremes: contrasting rates of diversification in a recent radiation of new world passerine birds

Recent analyses suggest that a few major shifts in diversification rate may be enough to explain most of the disparity in diversity among vertebrate lineages. At least one significant increase in diversification rate appears to have occurred within the birds; however, several nested lineages within birds have been identified as hyperdiverse by different studies. A clade containing the finches and relatives (within the avian order Passeriformes), including a large radiation endemic to the New World that comprises ~8% of all bird species, may be the true driver of this rate increase. Understanding the patterns and processes of diversification of this diverse lineage may go a long way toward explaining the apparently rapid diversification rates of both passerines and of birds as a whole. We present the first multilocus phylogenetic analyses of this endemic New World radiation of finch relatives that include sampling of all recognized genera, a relaxed molecular clock analysis of its divergence history, and an analysis of its broad-scale diversification patterns. These analyses recovered 5 major lineages traditionally recognized as avian families, but identified an additional 10 relatively ancient lineages worthy of recognition at the family level. Time-calibrated diversification analyses suggested that at least 3 of the 15 family-level lineages were significantly species poor given the entire group's background diversification rate, whereas at least one-the tanagers of family Thraupidae-appeared significantly more diverse. Lack of an age-diversity relationship within this clade suggests that, due to rapid initial speciation, it may have experienced density-dependent ecological limits on its overall diversity.

Is regional species diversity bounded or unbounded?

Two conflicting hypotheses have been proposed to explain large-scale species diversity patterns and dynamics. The unbounded hypothesis proposes that regional diversity depends only on time and diversification rate and increases without limit. The bounded hypothesis proposes that ecological constraints place upper limits on regional diversity and that diversity is usually close to its limit. Recent evidence from the fossil record, phylogenetic analysis, biogeography, and phenotypic disparity during lineage diversification suggests that diversity is constrained by ecological processes but that it is rarely asymptotic. Niche space is often unfilled or can be more finely subdivided and still permit coexistence, and new niche space is often created before ecological limits are reached. Damped increases in diversity over time are the prevalent pattern, suggesting the need for a new 'damped increase hypothesis'. The damped increase hypothesis predicts that diversity generally increases through time but that its rate of increase is often slowed by ecological constraints. However, slowing due to niche limitation must be distinguished from other possible mechanisms creating similar patterns. These include sampling artifacts, the inability to detect extinctions or declines in clade diversity with some methods, the distorting effects of correlated speciation-extinction dynamics, the likelihood that opportunities for allopatric speciation will vary in space and time, and the role of undetected natural enemies in reducing host ranges and thus slowing speciation rates. The taxonomic scope of regional diversity studies must be broadened to include all ecologically similar species so that ecological constraints may be accurately inferred. The damped increase hypothesis suggests that information on evolutionary processes such as time-for-speciation and intrinsic diversification rates as well as ecological factors will be required to explain why regional diversity varies among times, places and taxa.

Clade age and species richness are decoupled across the eukaryotic tree of life

Explaining the dramatic variation in species richness across the tree of life remains a key challenge in evolutionary biology. At the largest phylogenetic scales, the extreme heterogeneity in species richness observed among different groups of organisms is almost certainly a function of many complex and interdependent factors. However, the most fundamental expectation in macroevolutionary studies is simply that species richness in extant clades should be correlated with clade age: all things being equal, older clades will have had more time for diversity to accumulate than younger clades. Here, we test the relationship between stem clade age and species richness across 1,397 major clades of multicellular eukaryotes that collectively account for more than 1.2 million described species. We find no evidence that clade age predicts species richness at this scale. We demonstrate that this decoupling of age and richness is unlikely to result from variation in net diversification rates among clades. At the largest phylogenetic scales, contemporary patterns of species richness are inconsistent with unbounded diversity increase through time. These results imply that a fundamentally different interpretative paradigm may be needed in the study of phylogenetic diversity patterns in many groups of organisms.

Species richness varies by many orders of magnitude across the evolutionary "tree of life." Some groups, like beetles and flowering plants, contain nearly incomprehensible species diversity, but the overwhelming majority of groups contain far fewer species. Many processes presumably contribute to this variation in diversity, but the most general explanatory variable is the evolutionary age of each group: older groups will simply have had more time for diversity to accumulate than younger groups. We tested whether evolutionary age explains differences in species richness by compiling diversity and age estimates for nearly 1,400 groups of multicellular organisms. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that old groups have more species than young groups. This result appears to hold across the entire tree of life, for taxa as diverse as ferns, fungi, and flies. We demonstrate that this pattern is highly unlikely under simple but widely used evolutionary models that allow diversity to increase through time without bounds. Paleontologists have long contended that diversity-dependent processes have regulated species richness through time, and our results suggest that such processes have left a footprint on the living biota that can even be seen without data from the fossil record.

A comparative study of mammalian diversification pattern

Although mammals have long been regarded as a successful radiation, the diversification pattern among the clades is still poorly known. Higher-level phylogenies are conflicting and comprehensive comparative analyses are still lacking. Using a recently published supermatrix encompassing nearly all extant mammalian families and a novel comparative likelihood approach (MEDUSA), the diversification pattern of mammalian groups was examined. Both order- and family-level phylogenetic analyses revealed the rapid radiation of Boreoeutheria and Euaustralidelphia in the early mammalian history. The observation of a diversification burst within Boreoeutheria at approximately 100 My supports the Long Fuse model in elucidating placental diversification progress, and the rapid radiation of Euaustralidelphia suggests an important role of biogeographic dispersal events in triggering early Australian marsupial rapid radiation. Diversification analyses based on family-level diversity tree revealed seven additional clades with exceptional diversification rate shifts, six of which represent accelerations in net diversification rate as compared to the background pattern. The shifts gave origin to the clades Muridae+Cricetidae, Bovidae+Moschidae+Cervidae, Simiiformes, Echimyidae, Odontoceti (excluding Physeteridae+Kogiidae+Platanistidae), Macropodidae, and Vespertilionidae. Moderate to high extinction rates from background and boreoeutherian diversification patterns indicate the important role of turnovers in shaping the heterogeneous taxonomic richness observed among extant mammalian groups. Furthermore, the present results emphasize the key role of extinction on erasing unusual diversification signals, and suggest that further studies are needed to clarify the historical radiation of some mammalian groups for which MEDUSA did not detect exceptional diversification rates.

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

Background

Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification.

Results

We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification.

Conclusions

Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.

Seeing the forest for the trees: the limitations of phylogenies in comparative biology. (American Society of Naturalists Address)

The past 30 years have seen a revolution in comparative biology. Before that time, systematics was not at the forefront of the biological sciences, and few scientists considered phylogenetic relationships when investigating evolutionary questions. By contrast, systematic biology is now one of the most vigorous disciplines in biology, and the use of phylogenies not only is requisite in macroevolutionary studies but also has been applied to a wide range of topics and fields that no one could possibly have envisioned 30 years ago. My message is simple: phylogenies are fundamental to comparative biology, but they are not the be-all and end-all. Phylogenies are powerful tools for understanding the past, but like any tool, they have their limitations. In addition, phylogenies are much more informative about pattern than they are about process. The best way to fully understand the past-both pattern and process-is to integrate phylogenies with other types of historical data as well as with direct studies of evolutionary process.

Extinction, ecological opportunity, and the origins of global snake diversity

Snake diversity varies by at least two orders of magnitude among extant lineages, with numerous groups containing only one or two species, and several young clades exhibiting exceptional richness (>700 taxa). With a phylogeny containing all known families and subfamilies, we find that these patterns cannot be explained by background rates of speciation and extinction. The majority of diversity appears to derive from a radiation within the superfamily Colubroidea, potentially stemming from the colonization of new areas and the evolution of advanced venom-delivery systems. In contrast, negative relationships between clade age, clade size, and diversification rate suggest the potential for possible bias in estimated diversification rates, interpreted by some recent authors as support for ecologically mediated limits on diversity. However, evidence from the fossil record indicates that numerous lineages were far more diverse in the past, and that extinction has had an important impact on extant diversity patterns. Thus, failure to adequately account for extinction appears to prevent both rate- and diversity-limited models from fully characterizing richness dynamics in snakes. We suggest that clade-level extinction may provide a key mechanism for explaining negative or hump-shaped relationships between clade age and diversity, and the prevalence of ancient, species-poor lineages in numerous groups.

Evolutionary dynamics of taxonomic structure

The distribution of species among genera and higher taxa has largely untapped potential to reveal among-clade variation in rates of origination and extinction. The probability distribution of the number of species within a genus is modelled with a stochastic, time-homogeneous birth-death model having two parameters: the rate of species extinction, μ, and the rate of genus origination, γ, each scaled as a multiple of the rate of within-genus speciation, λ. The distribution is more sensitive to γ than to μ, although μ affects the size of the largest genera. The species : genus ratio depends strongly on both γ and μ, and so is not a good diagnostic of evolutionary dynamics. The proportion of monotypic genera, however, depends mainly on γ, and so may provide an index of the genus origination rate. Application to living marine molluscs of New Zealand shows that bivalves have a higher relative rate of genus origination than gastropods. This is supported by the analysis of palaeontological data. This concordance suggests that analysis of living taxonomic distributions may allow inference of macroevolutionary dynamics even without a fossil record.