Evaluating species distribution model predictions through time against paleozoological records

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to project how species distributions may vary over time, particularly in response climate change. Although the fit of such models to current distributions is regularly enumerated, SDMs are rarely tested across longer time spans to gauge their actual performance under environmental change. Here, we utilise paleozoological presence/absence records to independently assess the predictive accuracy of SDMs through time. To illustrate the approach, we focused on modelling the Holocene distribution of the hartebeest, Alcelaphus buselaphus, a widespread savannah-adapted African antelope. We applied various modelling algorithms to three occurrence datasets, including a point dataset from online repositories and two range maps representing current and 'natural' (i.e. hypothetical assuming no human impact) distributions. We compared conventional model evaluation metrics which assess fit to current distributions (i.e. True Skill Statistic, TSSc, and Area Under the Curve, AUCc) to analogous 'paleometrics' for past distributions (i.e. TSSp, AUCp, and in addition Boycep, F2-scorep and Sorensenp). Our findings reveal only a weak correlation between the ranking of conventional metrics and paleometrics, suggesting that the models most effectively capturing present-day distributions may not be the most reliable to hindcast historical distributions, and that the choice of input data and modelling algorithm both significantly influences environmental suitability predictions and SDM performance. We thus advocate assessment of model performance using paleometrics, particularly those capturing the correct prediction of presences, such as F2-scorep or Sorensenp, due to the potential unreliability of absence data in paleozoological records. By integrating archaeological and paleontological records into the assessment of alternative models' ability to project shifts in species distributions over time, we are likely to enhance our understanding of environmental constraints on species distributions.

Tectonic extension and paleoelevation influence mammalian diversity dynamics in the Basin and Range Province of western North America

Landscape properties have a profound influence on the diversity and distribution of biota, with present-day biodiversity hot spots occurring in topographically complex regions globally. Complex topography is created by tectonic processes and further shaped by interactions between climate and land-surface processes. These processes enrich diversity at the regional scale by promoting speciation and accommodating increased species richness along strong environmental gradients. Synthesis of the mammalian fossil record and a geophysical model of topographic evolution of the Basin and Range Province in western North America enable us to directly quantify relationships between mammal diversity and landscape dynamics over the past 30 million years. We analyze the covariation between tectonic history (extensional strain rates, paleotopography, and ruggedness), global temperature, and diversity dynamics. Mammal species richness and turnover exhibit stronger responses to rates of change in landscape properties than to the specific properties themselves, with peaks in diversity coinciding with high tectonic strain rates and large changes in elevation across spatial scales.

Dots on a screen: The past, present, and future of morphometrics in the study of nonavian dinosaurs

Using morphometrics to study nonavian dinosaur fossils is a practice that predates the origin of the word "dinosaur." By the 1970s, linear morphometrics had become established as a valuable tool for analyzing intra- and interspecific variation in nonavian dinosaurs. With the advent of more recent techniques such as geometric morphometrics and more advanced statistical approaches, morphometric analyses of nonavian dinosaurs have proliferated, granting unprecedented insight into many aspects of their biology and evolution. I outline the past, present, and future of morphometrics as applied to the study of nonavian dinosaurs zeroing in on five aspects of nonavian dinosaur paleobiology where morphometrics has been widely utilized to advance our knowledge: systematics, sexual dimorphism, locomotion, macroevolution, and trackways. Morphometric methods are especially susceptible to taphonomic distortion. As such, the impact of taphonomic distortion on original fossil shape is discussed as are current and future methods for quantifying and accounting for distortion with the goal of reducing the taphonomic noise to biological signal ratio. Finally, the future of morphometrics in nonavian dinosaur paleobiology is discussed as paleobiologists move into a "virtual paleobiology" framework, whereby digital renditions of fossils are captured via methods such as photogrammetry and computed tomography. These primary data form the basis for three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometric analyses along with a slew of other forms of analyses. These 3D specimen data form part of the extended specimen and help to democratize paleobiology, unlocking the specimen from the physical museum and making the specimen available to researchers across the world.

The early diversification of ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii): hypotheses, challenges and future prospects

Actinopterygii makes up half of living vertebrate diversity, and study of fossil members during their Palaeozoic rise to dominance has a long history of descriptive work. Although research interest into Palaeozoic actinopterygians has increased in recent years, broader patterns of diversity and diversity dynamics remain critically understudied. Past studies have investigated macroevolutionary trends in Palaeozoic actinopterygians in a piecemeal fashion, variably using existing compendia of vertebrates or literature-based searches. Here, we present a comprehensive occurrence-based dataset of actinopterygians spanning the whole of the Palaeozoic. We use this to produce the first through-Palaeozoic trends in genus and species counts for Actinopterygii. Diversity through time generally tracks metrics for sampling, while major taxonomic problems pervading the Palaeozoic actinopterygian record obscure diversity trends. Many described species are concentrated in several particularly problematic 'waste-basket' genera, hiding considerable morphological and taxonomic diversity. This taxonomic confusion also feeds into a limited understanding of phylogenetic relationships. A heavy sampling bias towards Europe and North America exists in both occurrence databases and available phylogenetic matrices, with other regions underrepresented despite yielding important data. Scrutiny of the extent to which spatial biases influence the actinopterygian record is lacking, as is research on other forms of bias. Low richness in some time periods may be linked to geological biases, while the effects of taphonomic biases on Palaeozoic actinopterygians have not yet been investigated. Efforts are already underway both to redescribe poorly defined taxa and to describe taxa from underrepresented regions, helping to address taxonomic issues and accuracy of occurrence data. New methods of sampling standardisation utilising up-to-date occurrence databases will be critical in teasing apart biological changes in diversity and those resulting from bias. Lastly, continued phylogenetic work will enable the use of phylogenetic comparative methods to elucidate the origins of actinopterygian biogeography and subsequent patterns of radiation throughout their rise to dominate aquatic faunas.

Living and dead bivalves are congruent surrogates for whole benthic macroinvertebrate communities in Puget Sound

To integrate paleoecological data with the “whole fauna” data used in biological monitoring, analyses usually must focus on the subset of taxa that are inherently preservable, for example by virtue of biomineralized hardparts, and those skeletal remains must also be identifiable in fragmentary or otherwise imperfect condition, thus perhaps coarsening analytical resolution to the genus or family level. Here we evaluate the ability of readily preserved bivalves to reflect patterns of compositional variation from the entire infaunal macroinvertebrate fauna as typically sampled by agencies in ocean monitoring, using data from ten long-established subtidal stations in Puget Sound, Washington State. Similarity in compositional variation among these stations was assessed for five taxonomic subsets (the whole fauna, polychaetes, malacostracans, living bivalves, dead bivalves) at four levels of taxonomic resolution (species, genera, families, orders) evaluated under four numerical transformations of the original count data (proportional abundance, square root- and fourth root-transformation, presence-absence). Using the original matrix of species-level proportional abundances of the whole fauna as a benchmark of “compositional variation,” we find that living and dead bivalves had nearly identical potential to serve as surrogates of the whole fauna; they were further offset from the whole fauna than was the polychaete subset (which dominates the whole fauna), but were far superior as surrogates than malacostracans. Genus- and family-level data were consistently strong surrogates of species-level data for most taxonomic subsets, and correlations declined for all subsets with increasing severity of data transformation, although this effect lessened for subsets with high community evenness. The strong congruence of death assemblages with living bivalves, which are themselves effective surrogates of compositional variation in the whole fauna, is encouraging for using bivalve dead-shell assemblages to complement conventional monitoring data, notwithstanding strong natural environmental gradients with potential to bias shell preservation.

Metabolic tradeoffs control biodiversity gradients through geological time

The latitudinal gradient of increasing marine biodiversity from the poles to the tropics is one of the most conspicuous biological patterns in modern oceans.^1-3 Low-latitude regions of the global ocean are often hotspots of animal biodiversity, yet they are set to be most critically affected by anthropogenic climate change.⁴ As ocean temperatures rise and deoxygenation proceeds in the coming centuries, the volume of aerobically viable habitat is predicted to decrease in these zones.^5,6 In contrast to the slightly asymmetrical modern latitudinal biodiversity gradient,⁷ compilations of fossil occurrences indicate peaks in biodiversity may have existed much further away from the equator in the past, with transitions between climate states hypothesized to explain this trend.^8-13 We combine a new compilation of fossil mollusc occurrences, paleotemperature proxies, and biogeographic data to reveal a non-monotonic relationship between temperature and diversity in the paleontological record over the last 145 million years. We derive a metabolic model that integrates the kinetic effects of temperature on biodiversity¹⁴ with the recently described Metabolic Index that calculates aerobic habitat availability based on the effect of temperature on hypoxia sensitivity.^5,15,16 Although factors such as coastal habitat area and homeothermy are important,^17,18 we find strong congruence between our metabolic model and our fossil and paleotemperature meta-analysis. We therefore suggest that the effects of ocean temperature on the aerobic scope of marine ectotherms is a primary driver of migrating biodiversity peaks through geologic time and will likely play a role in the restructuring of biodiversity under projected future climate scenarios.

Geographic range did not confer resilience to extinction in terrestrial vertebrates at the end-Triassic crisis

Rates of extinction vary greatly through geological time, with losses particularly concentrated in mass extinctions. Species duration at other times varies greatly, but the reasons for this are unclear. Geographical range correlates with lineage duration amongst marine invertebrates, but it is less clear how far this generality extends to other groups in other habitats. It is also unclear whether a wide geographical distribution makes groups more likely to survive mass extinctions. Here we test for extinction selectivity amongst terrestrial vertebrates across the end-Triassic event. We demonstrate that terrestrial vertebrate clades with larger geographical ranges were more resilient to extinction than those with smaller ranges throughout the Triassic and Jurassic. However, this relationship weakened with increasing proximity to the end-Triassic mass extinction, breaking down altogether across the event itself. We demonstrate that these findings are not a function of sampling biases; a perennial issue in studies of this kind.

The fossilized birth-death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates

Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data--most commonly, fossil age estimates--are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the "fossilized birth-death" (FBD) process--a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Are characiform fishes Gondwanan in origin? Insights from a time-scaled molecular phylogeny of the Citharinoidei (Ostariophysi: Characiformes)

Fishes of the order Characiformes are a diverse and economically important teleost clade whose extant members are found exclusively in African and Neotropical freshwaters. Although their transatlantic distribution has been primarily attributed to the Early Cretaceous fragmentation of western Gondwana, vicariance has not been tested with temporal information beyond that contained in their fragmentary fossil record and a recent time-scaled phylogeny focused on the African family Alestidae. Because members of the suborder Citharinoidei constitute the sister lineage to the entire remaining Afro-Neotropical characiform radiation, we inferred a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny of citharinoids using a popular Bayesian approach to molecular dating in order to assess the adequacy of current vicariance hypotheses and shed light on the early biogeographic history of characiform fishes. Given that the only comprehensive phylogenetic treatment of the Citharinoidei has been a morphology-based analysis published over three decades ago, the present study also provided an opportunity to further investigate citharinoid relationships and update the evolutionary framework that has laid the foundations for the current classification of the group. The inferred chronogram is robust to changes in calibration priors and suggests that the origins of citharinoids date back to the Turonian (ca 90 Ma) of the Late Cretaceous. Most modern citharinoid genera, however, appear to have originated and diversified much more recently, mainly during the Miocene. By reconciling molecular-clock- with fossil-based estimates for the origins of the Characiformes, our results provide further support for the hypothesis that attributes the disjunct distribution of the order to the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. The striking overlap in tempo of diversification and biogeographic patterns between citharinoids and the African-endemic family Alestidae suggests that their evolutionary histories could have been strongly and similarly influenced by Miocene geotectonic events that modified the landscape and produced the drainage pattern of Central Africa seen today.

An analytical approach for estimating fossil record and diversification events in sharks, skates and rays

Background

Modern selachians and their supposed sister group (hybodont sharks) have a long and successful evolutionary history. Yet, although selachian remains are considered relatively common in the fossil record in comparison with other marine vertebrates, little is known about the quality of their fossil record. Similarly, only a few works based on specific time intervals have attempted to identify major events that marked the evolutionary history of this group.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Phylogenetic hypotheses concerning modern selachians’ interrelationships are numerous but differ significantly and no consensus has been found. The aim of the present study is to take advantage of the range of recent phylogenetic hypotheses in order to assess the fit of the selachian fossil record to phylogenies, according to two different branching methods. Compilation of these data allowed the inference of an estimated range of diversity through time and evolutionary events that marked this group over the past 300 Ma are identified. Results indicate that with the exception of high taxonomic ranks (orders), the selachian fossil record is by far imperfect, particularly for generic and post-Triassic data. Timing and amplitude of the various identified events that marked the selachian evolutionary history are discussed.

Conclusion/Significance

Some identified diversity events were mentioned in previous works using alternative methods (Early Jurassic, mid-Cretaceous, K/T boundary and late Paleogene diversity drops), thus reinforcing the efficiency of the methodology presented here in inferring evolutionary events. Other events (Permian/Triassic, Early and Late Cretaceous diversifications; Triassic/Jurassic extinction) are newly identified. Relationships between these events and paleoenvironmental characteristics and other groups’ evolutionary history are proposed.

Modelling the past: new generation approaches to understanding biological patterns in the fossil record

The history of life on this planet is gleaned from analysing how fossils are distributed through time and space. While these patterns are now rather securely known, at least for well-studied parts of the world, their interpretation remains far from simple. Fossils preserve only partial data from which to reconstruct their biology and the geological record is incomplete and biased, so that taxonomic ranges and palaeocommunity structure are imperfectly known. To better understand the often highly complex deep-time processes that gave rise to the empirical fossil record, palaeontologists have turned to modelling the past. Here, we summarize a series of 11 papers that showcase where modelling the past is being applied to advance our understanding across a wide spectrum of current palaeontological endeavours.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating estimates of species divergence times

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account.