A hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating estimates of species divergence times

Expectation-Maximization enables Phylogenetic Dating under a Categorical Rate Model

Dating phylogenetic trees to obtain branch lengths in time units is essential for many downstream applications but has remained challenging. Dating requires inferring substitution rates that can change across the tree. While we can assume to have information about a small subset of nodes from the fossil record or sampling times (for fast-evolving organisms), inferring the ages of the other nodes essentially requires extrapolation and interpolation. Assuming a distribution of branch rates, we can formulate dating as a constrained maximum likelihood (ML) estimation problem. While ML dating methods exist, their accuracy degrades in the face of model misspecification, where the assumed parametric statistical distribution of branch rates vastly differs from the true distribution. Notably, most existing methods assume rigid, often unimodal, branch rate distributions. A second challenge is that the likelihood function involves an integral over the continuous domain of the rates, often leading to difficult non-convex optimization problems. To tackle both challenges, we propose a new method called Molecular Dating using Categorical-models (MD-Cat). MD-Cat uses a categorical model of rates inspired by non-parametric statistics and can approximate a large family of models by discretizing the rate distribution into k categories. Under this model, we can use the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to co-estimate rate categories and branch lengths in time units. Our model has fewer assumptions about the true distribution of branch rates than parametric models such as Gamma or LogNormal distribution. Our results on two simulated and real datasets of Angiosperms and HIV and a wide selection of rate distributions show that MD-Cat is often more accurate than the alternatives, especially on datasets with exponential or multimodal rate distributions.

The phylogeny of Syntrichia: An ecologically diverse clade of mosses with an origin in South America

PREMISE

To address the biodiversity crisis, we need to understand the evolution of all organisms and how they fill geographic and ecological space. Syntrichia is one of the most diverse and dominant genera of mosses, ranging from alpine habitats to desert biocrusts, yet its evolutionary history remains unclear.

METHODS

We present a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Syntrichia, based on both molecular and morphological data, with most of the named species and closest outgroups represented. In addition, we provide ancestral-state reconstructions of water-related traits and a global biogeographic analysis.

RESULTS

We found 10 major well-resolved subclades of Syntrichia that possess geographical or morphological coherence, in some cases representing previously accepted genera. We infer that the extant species diversity of Syntrichia likely originated in South America in the early Eocene (56.5-43.8 million years ago [Mya]), subsequently expanded its distribution to the neotropics, and finally dispersed to the northern hemisphere. There, the clade experienced a recent diversification (15-12 Mya) into a broad set of ecological niches (e.g., the S. caninervis and S. ruralis complexes). The transition from terricolous to either saxicolous or epiphytic habitats occurred more than once and was associated with changes in water-related traits.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides a framework for understanding the evolutionary history of Syntrichia through the combination of morphological and molecular characters, revealing that migration events that shaped the current distribution of the clade have implications for morphological character evolution in relation to niche diversity.

Biogeographic evidence supports the Old Amazon hypothesis for the formation of the Amazon fluvial system

The Amazon has high biodiversity, which has been attributed to different geological events such as the formation of rivers. The Old and Young Amazon hypotheses have been proposed regarding the date of the formation of the Amazon basin. Different studies of historical biogeography support the Young Amazon model, however, most studies use secondary calibrations or are performed at the population level, preventing evaluation of a possible older formation of the Amazon basin. Here, we evaluated the fit of molecular phylogenetic and biogeographic data to previous models regarding the age of formation of the Amazon fluvial system. We reconstructed time-calibrated molecular phylogenies through Bayesian inference for six taxa belonging to Amphibia, Aves, Insecta and Mammalia, using both, nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequence data and fossils as calibration points, and explored priors for both data sources. We detected the most plausible vicariant barriers for each phylogeny and performed an ancestral reconstruction analysis using areas bounded by major Amazonian rivers, and therefore, evaluated the effect of different dispersal rates over time based on geological and biogeographical information. The majority of the genes analyzed fit a relaxed clock model. The log normal distribution fits better and leads to more precise age estimations than the exponential distribution. The data suggested that the first dispersals to the Amazon basin occurred to Western Amazonia from 16.2-10.4 Ma, and the taxa covered most of the areas of the Amazon basin between 12.2-6.2 Ma. Additionally, regardless of the method, we obtained evidence for two rivers: Tocantins and Madeira, acting as vicariant barriers. Given the molecular and biogeographical analyses, we found that some taxa were fitted to the "Old Amazon" model.

Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity

Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of ${\sim}$2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth-death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.].

Phylogeny and biogeography of the pantropical whip spider family Charinidae (Arachnida: Amblypygi)

The present contribution addresses the phylogeny and biogeography of the pantropical whip spider family Charinidae Quintero, 1986, the most species-rich in the arachnid order Amblypygi Thorell, 1883, based on morphology and multilocus DNA sequences, analysed simultaneously using parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. The morphological matrix comprises 138 characters, scored for four outgroup taxa and 103 ingroup terminals representing all genera and 64% of the species of Charinidae. The multilocus dataset comprises sequences from two nuclear and three mitochondrial gene loci for four outgroup taxa and 48 ingroup representing 30 (23%) taxa of Charinidae. Charinidae are monophyletic, with Weygoldtia Miranda et al., 2018 sister to a monophyletic group comprising Charinus Simon, 1892 and Sarax Simon, 1892, neither of which are reciprocally monophyletic. Charinidae diverged from other amblypygid families in the Late Carboniferous, c. 318 Mya, on the supercontinent Pangaea. Weygoldtia diverged from the common ancestor of Charinus and Sarax during the Late Permian, c. 257 Mya, when changes in climate reduced tropical forests. The divergence of Charinus and Sarax coincides with the fragmentation of Pangaea, c. 216 Mya. Sarax colonized South-East Asia via Australia. The charinid fauna of New Caledonia originated before the Oligocene, when the island separated from Australia, c. 80 Mya.

Estimating the age of the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae using host divergence times as calibration ages at two internal nodes

Viruses of the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae can cause mild to severe disease in people, including COVID-19, MERS and SARS. Their most common natural hosts are bat and bird species, which are mostly split across four virus genera. Molecular clock analyses of orthocoronaviruses suggested the most recent common ancestor of these viruses might have emerged either around 10,000 years ago or, using models accounting for selection, many millions of years. Here, we reassess the evolutionary history of these viruses. We present time-aware phylogenetic analyses of a RNA-dependent RNA polymerase locus from 123 orthocoronaviruses isolated from birds and bats, including those in New Zealand, which were geographically isolated from other bats around 35 million years ago. We used this age, as well as the age of the avian-mammals split, to calibrate the molecular clocks, under the assumption that these ages are applicable to the analyzed viruses. We found that the time to the most recent ancestor common for all orthocoronaviruses is likely 150 or more million years, supporting clock analyses that account for selection.

Ancient relicts or recent immigrants? Different dating strategies alter diversification scenarios of New Zealand aquatic beetles (Coleoptera: Hydrophilidae: Berosus)

Dated species-level phylogenies are crucial for understanding the origin and evolutionary history of modern faunas, yet difficult to obtain due to the frequent absence of suitable age calibrations at species level. Substitution rates of related or more inclusive clades are often used to overcome this limitation but the accuracy of this approach remains untested. We compared tree dating based on substitution rates with analyses implementing fossil data by direct node-dating and indirect root-age constraints for the New Zealand endemic Berosus water beetles (Coleoptera: Hydrophilidae). The analysis based solely on substitution rates indicated a Miocene colonization of New Zealand and Pleistocene origin of species. By contrast, all analyses that implemented fossil data resulted in significantly older age estimates, indicating an ancient early Cenozoic origin of the New Zealand clade, diversification of species during or after the Oligocene transgression and Miocene-Pliocene origin of within-species population structure. Rate-calibrated time trees were incongruent with recently published Coleoptera time trees, the fossil record of Berosus and the distribution of outgroup species. Strong variation of substitution rates among Coleoptera lineages, as well as among lineages within the family Hydrophilidae, was identified as the principal reason for low accuracy of rate-calibrated analyses, resulting in underestimated node ages in Berosus. We provide evidence that Oligocene to Pliocene events, rather than the Pleistocene Glacial cycles, played an essential role in the formation of the modern New Zealand insect fauna.

Historical Biogeography and the Evolution of Hematophagy in Rhodniini (Heteroptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae)

The Rhodniini tribe is one of the five tribes in the subfamily Triatominae and is notorious for its domestic blood-sucking pests and vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi across Latin America. The human and economic costs of the Chagas disease in the American tropics are considerable, and these insects are of unquestionable importance to humans. We used mitochondrial rDNA (16S), nuclear ribosomal RNA (28S) and wingless (Wg) sequences to perform phylogenetic analysis to derive trees based on parsimony and maximum likelihood. Nucleotide sequences were used in molecular-clock analyses to estimate time divergence between species of Rhodniini. The potential distribution of each species was modeled and compared with Kappa statistic. Multivariate niches with bioclimatic variables were used to describe differences between the species using discriminant analysis. The results of this study indicate that the Rhodniini originated 17.91 Mya ago. Rhodnius domesticus is the oldest species having its origin at 9.13 Mya. Rhodniini are closely related to Salyavatinae that are specialist termite predators and diverged from this subfamily 30.43 Mya. Most species are clearly allopatric and have distinct bioclimatic niches. The colonization of bromeliads, palms trees and bird nests represent important events for the speciation of these taxa. The hematophagous habit can be described as a scenario where Rhodniini’s ancestor could be pre-adapted for the invasion of bromeliads, palm trees, and bird nests where they would find significant water availability and thermal damping. These environments are widely used by vertebrate inquilines that would be the source of food for the species of Rhodniini. Lastly, our results show an alternative position of Psammolestes in the phylogenetic tree.

Congolius, a new genus of African reed frog endemic to the central Congo: A potential case of convergent evolution

The reed frog genus Hyperolius (Afrobatrachia, Hyperoliidae) is a speciose genus containing over 140 species of mostly small to medium-sized frogs distributed in sub-Saharan Africa. Its high level of colour polymorphism, together with in anurans relatively rare sexual dichromatism, make systematic studies more difficult. As a result, the knowledge of the diversity and taxonomy of this genus is still limited. Hyperolius robustus known only from a handful of localities in rain forests of the central Congo Basin is one of the least known species. Here, we have used molecular methods for the first time to study the phylogenetic position of this taxon, accompanied by an analysis of phenotype based on external (morphometric) and internal (osteological) morphological characters. Our phylogenetic results undoubtedly placed H. robustus out of Hyperolius into a common clade with sympatric Cryptothylax and West African Morerella. To prevent the uncovered paraphyly, we place H. robustus into a new genus, Congolius. The review of all available data suggests that the new genus is endemic to the central Congolian lowland rain forests. The analysis of phenotype underlined morphological similarity of the new genus to some Hyperolius species. This uniformity of body shape (including cranial shape) indicates that the two genera have either retained ancestral morphology or evolved through convergent evolution under similar ecological pressures in the African rain forests.

Log Transformation Improves Dating of Phylogenies

Phylogenetic trees inferred from sequence data often have branch lengths measured in the expected number of substitutions and therefore, do not have divergence times estimated. These trees give an incomplete view of evolutionary histories since many applications of phylogenies require time trees. Many methods have been developed to convert the inferred branch lengths from substitution unit to time unit using calibration points, but none is universally accepted as they are challenged in both scalability and accuracy under complex models. Here, we introduce a new method that formulates dating as a nonconvex optimization problem where the variance of log-transformed rate multipliers is minimized across the tree. On simulated and real data, we show that our method, wLogDate, is often more accurate than alternatives and is more robust to various model assumptions.

Ignoring stratigraphic age uncertainty leads to erroneous estimates of species divergence times under the fossilized birth-death process

Fossil information is essential for estimating species divergence times, and can be integrated into Bayesian phylogenetic inference using the fossilized birth-death (FBD) process. An important aspect of palaeontological data is the uncertainty surrounding specimen ages, which can be handled in different ways during inference. The most common approach is to fix fossil ages to a point estimate within the known age interval. Alternatively, age uncertainty can be incorporated by using priors, and fossil ages are then directly sampled as part of the inference. This study presents a comparison of alternative approaches for handling fossil age uncertainty in analysis using the FBD process. Based on simulations, we find that fixing fossil ages to the midpoint or a random point drawn from within the stratigraphic age range leads to biases in divergence time estimates, while sampling fossil ages leads to estimates that are similar to inferences that employ the correct ages of fossils. Second, we show a comparison using an empirical dataset of extant and fossil cetaceans, which confirms that different methods of handling fossil age uncertainty lead to large differences in estimated node ages. Stratigraphic age uncertainty should thus not be ignored in divergence time estimation and instead should be incorporated explicitly.

Local and relaxed clocks: the best of both worlds

Time-resolved phylogenetic methods use information about the time of sample collection to estimate the rate of evolution. Originally, the models used to estimate evolutionary rates were quite simple, assuming that all lineages evolve at the same rate, an assumption commonly known as the molecular clock. Richer and more complex models have since been introduced to capture the phenomenon of substitution rate variation among lineages. Two well known model extensions are the local clock, wherein all lineages in a clade share a common substitution rate, and the uncorrelated relaxed clock, wherein the substitution rate on each lineage is independent from other lineages while being constrained to fit some parametric distribution. We introduce a further model extension, called the flexible local clock (FLC), which provides a flexible framework to combine relaxed clock models with local clock models. We evaluate the flexible local clock on simulated and real datasets and show that it provides substantially improved fit to an influenza dataset. An implementation of the model is available for download from https://www.github.com/4ment/flc.

Multigene phylogeny supports diversification of four-eyed fishes and one-sided livebearers (Cyprinodontiformes: Anablepidae) related to major South American geological events

The high diversity of Neotropical fishes has been attributed to major South American palaeogeographic events, such as Andean uplift, rise of the Isthmus of Panama and marine transgressions. However, the unavailability of temporal information about evolution and diversification of some fish groups prevents the establishment of robust hypotheses about correlations between species diversification and proposed palaeogeographical events. One example is the Anablepidae, a family of teleost fishes found mostly in coastal habitats of Central and South America, but also in some inner river basins of South America. Historical aspects of the distribution patterns of the Anablepidae were never analysed and no accurate estimation of time of its origin and diversification is presently available. A multi-gene analysis was performed to estimate Anablepidae phylogenetic position, age and biogeography, comprising seven nuclear genes. The suborder Cyprinodontoidei was recovered in three major clades, one comprising all the Old World Cyprinodontoidei and two comprising New World lineages. Anablepidae was recovered as the sister group of the New World Poeciliidae, with the Amazonian genus Fluviphylax as their sister group. The ages found for the origin and diversification of Cyprinodontiformes were congruent with the pattern recorded for other vertebrate groups, with an origin anterior to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) transition and diversification during the Paleogene. The age estimated for the split between the Atlantic and Pacific lineages of Anableps was congruent with the rise of Panamanian Isthmus. The results suggest Miocene marine transgressions as determinant to the current distribution of Jenynsia.

Diversification Patterns of Lanternfishes Reveal Multiple Rate Shifts in a Critical Mesopelagic Clade Targeted for Human Exploitation

The mesopelagic (midwater) and deep-sea environments together comprise over 90% of the volume of the world ocean [1] and provide services that are only recently becoming recognized [2]. One of the most significant of these services relates to midwater fish biomass, recently estimated to be two orders of magnitude larger than the current worldwide fisheries catch [3, 4]. Calls to exploit midwater fish biomass have increased despite warnings about the unknown recovery potential of such organisms [2] and despite existing data suggesting that deep-sea fishes could be classified as endangered [5]. Here, to provide a null model for the respondability of midwater fishes, I use lanternfishes-which comprise the majority of worldwide midwater fish biomass [6]-to examine the diversification response of a critical midwater clade to oceanic changes over evolutionary timescales, including several extinction and turnover events. Using a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny based on seven autosomal protein-coding loci, with over 50% species sampling and three ingroup node calibrations, I show that lanternfishes exhibit a continuously increasing diversification rate, consistent with nonequilibrium speciation dynamics, and three major evolutionary rate shift locations with timing that is similar to those of marine clades in more well-known environments. These results suggest that lanternfish diversification patterns overlapped with major events in the physical partitioning of the ocean volume and that the clade has responded positively to a range of pre-Anthropocene extinction drivers [7]. However, lanternfish respondability to modern extinction drivers-habitat loss and overexploitation-is best addressed with populational and ecological data and remains largely unknown.

The Past Sure is Tense: On Interpreting Phylogenetic Divergence Time Estimates

Divergence time estimation-the calibration of a phylogeny to geological time-is an integral first step in modeling the tempo of biological evolution (traits and lineages). However, despite increasingly sophisticated methods to infer divergence times from molecular genetic sequences, the estimated age of many nodes across the tree of life contrast significantly and consistently with timeframes conveyed by the fossil record. This is perhaps best exemplified by crown angiosperms, where molecular clock (Triassic) estimates predate the oldest (Early Cretaceous) undisputed angiosperm fossils by tens of millions of years or more. While the incompleteness of the fossil record is a common concern, issues of data limitation and model inadequacy are viable (if underexplored) alternative explanations. In this vein, Beaulieu et al. (2015) convincingly demonstrated how methods of divergence time inference can be misled by both (i) extreme state-dependent molecular substitution rate heterogeneity and (ii) biased sampling of representative major lineages. These results demonstrate the impact of (potentially common) model violations. Here, we suggest another potential challenge: that the configuration of the statistical inference problem (i.e., the parameters, their relationships, and associated priors) alone may preclude the reconstruction of the paleontological timeframe for the crown age of angiosperms. We demonstrate, through sampling from the joint prior (formed by combining the tree (diversification) prior with the calibration densities specified for fossil-calibrated nodes) that with no data present at all, that an Early Cretaceous crown angiosperms is rejected (i.e., has essentially zero probability). More worrisome, however, is that for the 24 nodes calibrated by fossils, almost all have indistinguishable marginal prior and posterior age distributions when employing routine lognormal fossil calibration priors. These results indicate that there is inadequate information in the data to over-rule the joint prior. Given that these calibrated nodes are strategically placed in disparate regions of the tree, they act to anchor the tree scaffold, and so the posterior inference for the tree as a whole is largely determined by the pseudodata present in the (often arbitrary) calibration densities. We recommend, as for any Bayesian analysis, that marginal prior and posterior distributions be carefully compared to determine whether signal is coming from the data or prior belief, especially for parameters of direct interest. This recommendation is not novel. However, given how rarely such checks are carried out in evolutionary biology, it bears repeating. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of prior/posterior comparisons in any Bayesian analysis, and we hope that they further encourage both researchers and journals to consistently adopt this crucial step as standard practice. Finally, we note that the results presented here do not refute the biological modeling concerns identified by Beaulieu et al. (2015). Both sets of issues remain apposite to the goals of accurate divergence time estimation, and only by considering them in tandem can we move forward more confidently.

Phylogenomic analyses of 539 highly informative loci dates a fully resolved time tree for the major clades of living turtles (Testudines)

Accurate time-calibrated phylogenies are the centerpiece of many macroevolutionary studies, and the relationship between the size and scale of molecular data sets and the density and accuracy of fossil calibrations is a key element of time tree studies. Here, we develop a target capture array specifically for living turtles, compare its efficiency to an ultraconserved element (UCE) dataset, and present a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny based on 539 nuclear loci sequenced from 26 species representing the breadth of living turtle diversity plus outgroups. Our gene array, based on three fully sequenced turtle genomes, is 2.4 times more variable across turtles than a recently published UCE data set for an identical subset of 13 species, confirming that taxon-specific arrays return more informative data per sequencing effort than UCEs. We used our genomic data to estimate the ages of living turtle clades including a mid-late Triassic origin for crown turtles and a mid-Carboniferous split of turtles from their sister group, Archosauria. By specifically excluding several of the earliest potential crown turtle fossils and limiting the age of fossil calibration points to the unambiguous crown lineage Caribemys oxfordiensis from the Late Jurassic (Oxfordian, 163.5-157.3Ma) we corroborate a relatively ancient age for living turtles. We also provide novel age estimates for five of the ten testudine families containing more than a single species, as well as several intrafamilial clades. Most of the diversity of crown turtles appears to date to the Paleogene, well after the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction 66mya.

The East Asian origin of the giant lobelias

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Rapid radiations are difficult to reconstruct when organismal diversification and biogeographic movement outpace the evolution of genes typically used in phylogenetic analyses. The 125 kb of unique sequence from complete plastid genomes (= plastomes) largely solves the molecular sampling problem, and taxon sampling that triangulates the base of each major subclade largely solves the long-branch attraction problem. This combination of molecular and phylogenetic sampling is used to reconstruct the cosmopolitan radiation of lobeliads, with special focus on the origin of the giant lobelias.

METHODS

An alignment of 18 previously generated and 61 new plastomes was analyzed to produce the phylogenetic estimate upon which the biogeographic reconstruction was based.

KEY RESULTS

Originating in southern Africa, the Lobeliaceae underwent a spectacular cosmopolitan radiation about 20 million years ago. One lineage colonized Madagascar and eastern Asia, which was the source area for the evolution of the giant lobelias. A second lineage colonized the Mediterranean and North America, in quick succession. South America and Australia were also colonized from South Africa, most likely as independent events, but detailed biogeographic reconstruction is limited by inferred extinction events. The south Pacific segregate genera Apetahia and Sclerotheca are inferred to have Hawaiian ancestry. The East African radiation independently reached Ethiopia, West Africa, and Brazil.

CONCLUSIONS

With adequate molecular and taxon sampling, many details of rapid radiations can be accurately inferred. However, not all lineages survived, and analyses of extant species cannot recover details that have been lost due to extinction.

Bayesian Total-Evidence Dating Reveals the Recent Crown Radiation of Penguins

The total-evidence approach to divergence time dating uses molecular and morphological data from extant and fossil species to infer phylogenetic relationships, species divergence times, and macroevolutionary parameters in a single coherent framework. Current model-based implementations of this approach lack an appropriate model for the tree describing the diversification and fossilization process and can produce estimates that lead to erroneous conclusions. We address this shortcoming by providing a total-evidence method implemented in a Bayesian framework. This approach uses a mechanistic tree prior to describe the underlying diversification process that generated the tree of extant and fossil taxa. Previous attempts to apply the total-evidence approach have used tree priors that do not account for the possibility that fossil samples may be direct ancestors of other samples, that is, ancestors of fossil or extant species or of clades. The fossilized birth–death (FBD) process explicitly models the diversification, fossilization, and sampling processes and naturally allows for sampled ancestors. This model was recently applied to estimate divergence times based on molecular data and fossil occurrence dates. We incorporate the FBD model and a model of morphological trait evolution into a Bayesian total-evidence approach to dating species phylogenies. We apply this method to extant and fossil penguins and show that the modern penguins radiated much more recently than has been previously estimated, with the basal divergence in the crown clade occurring at ∼12.7 ∼12.7 Ma and most splits leading to extant species occurring in the last 2 myr. Our results demonstrate that including stem-fossil diversity can greatly improve the estimates of the divergence times of crown taxa. The method is available in BEAST2 (version 2.4) software www.beast2.org with packages SA (version at least 1.1.4) and morph-models (version at least 1.0.4) installed.

Total-Evidence Dating under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Bayesian total-evidence dating involves the simultaneous analysis of morphological data from the fossil record and morphological and sequence data from recent organisms, and it accommodates the uncertainty in the placement of fossils while dating the phylogenetic tree. Due to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, total-evidence dating can also incorporate additional sources of information. Here, we take advantage of this and expand the analysis to include information about fossilization and sampling processes. Our work is based on the recently described fossilized birth-death (FBD) process, which has been used to model speciation, extinction, and fossilization rates that can vary over time in a piecewise manner. So far, sampling of extant and fossil taxa has been assumed to be either complete or uniformly at random, an assumption which is only valid for a minority of data sets. We therefore extend the FBD process to accommodate diversified sampling of extant taxa, which is standard practice in studies of higher-level taxa. We verify the implementation using simulations and apply it to the early radiation of Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, and bees). Previous total-evidence dating analyses of this data set were based on a simple uniform tree prior and dated the initial radiation of extant Hymenoptera to the late Carboniferous (309 Ma). The analyses using the FBD prior under diversified sampling, however, date the radiation to the Triassic and Permian (252 Ma), slightly older than the age of the oldest hymenopteran fossils. By exploring a variety of FBD model assumptions, we show that it is mainly the accommodation of diversified sampling that causes the push toward more recent divergence times. Accounting for diversified sampling thus has the potential to close the long-discussed gap between rocks and clocks. We conclude that the explicit modeling of fossilization and sampling processes can improve divergence time estimates, but only if all important model aspects, including sampling biases, are adequately addressed.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current as a diversification trigger for deep-sea octocorals

BACKGROUND

Antarctica is surrounded by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the largest and strongest current in the world. Despite its potential importance for shaping biogeographical patterns, the distribution and connectivity of deep-sea populations across the ACC remain poorly understood. In this study we conducted the first assessment of phylogeographical patterns in deep-sea octocorals in the South Pacific and Southern Ocean, specifically a group of closely related bottlebrush octocorals (Primnoidae: Tokoprymno and Thourella), as a test case to study the effect of the ACC on the population structure of brooding species. We assessed the degree to which the ACC constitutes a barrier to gene flow between northern and southern populations and whether the onset of diversification of these corals coincides with the origin of the ACC (Oligocene-Miocene boundary).

RESULTS

Based on DNA sequences of two nuclear genes from 80 individuals and a combination of phylogeographic model-testing approaches we found a phylogenetic break corresponding to the spatial occurrence of the ACC. We also found significant genetic structure among our four regional populations. However, we uncovered shared haplotypes among certain population pairs, suggesting long-distance, asymmetrical migration. Our divergence time analyses indicated that the separation of amphi-ACC populations took place during the Middle Miocene around 12.6 million years ago, i.e., after the formation of the ACC.

CONCLUSION

We suggest that the ACC constitutes a semi-permeable barrier to these deep-sea octocorals capable of separating and structuring populations, while allowing short periods of gene flow. The fluctuations in latitudinal positioning of the ACC during the Miocene likely contributed to the diversification of these octocorals. Additionally, we provide evidence that the populations from each of our four sampling regions could actually constitute different species.

Bayesian molecular clock dating of species divergences in the genomics era

Five decades have passed since the proposal of the molecular clock hypothesis, which states that the rate of evolution at the molecular level is constant through time and among species. This hypothesis has become a powerful tool in evolutionary biology, making it possible to use molecular sequences to estimate the geological ages of species divergence events. With recent advances in Bayesian clock dating methodology and the explosive accumulation of genetic sequence data, molecular clock dating has found widespread applications, from tracking virus pandemics and studying the macroevolutionary process of speciation and extinction to estimating a timescale for life on Earth.

Biogeographic calibrations for the molecular clock

Molecular estimates of evolutionary timescales have an important role in a range of biological studies. Such estimates can be made using methods based on molecular clocks, including models that are able to account for rate variation across lineages. All clock models share a dependence on calibrations, which enable estimates to be given in absolute time units. There are many available methods for incorporating fossil calibrations, but geological and climatic data can also provide useful calibrations for molecular clocks. However, a number of strong assumptions need to be made when using these biogeographic calibrations, leading to wide variation in their reliability and precision. In this review, we describe the nature of biogeographic calibrations and the assumptions that they involve. We present an overview of the different geological and climatic events that can provide informative calibrations, and explain how such temporal information can be incorporated into dating analyses.

Revisiting the origin and diversification of vascular plants through a comprehensive Bayesian analysis of the fossil record

Plants have a long evolutionary history, during which mass extinction events dramatically affected Earth's ecosystems and its biodiversity. The fossil record can shed light on the diversification dynamics of plant life and reveal how changes in the origination-extinction balance have contributed to shaping the current flora. We use a novel Bayesian approach to estimate origination and extinction rates in plants throughout their history. We focus on the effect of the 'Big Five' mass extinctions and on estimating the timing of origin of vascular plants, seed plants and angiosperms. Our analyses show that plant diversification is characterized by several shifts in origination and extinction rates, often matching the most important geological boundaries. The estimated origin of major plant clades predates the oldest macrofossils when considering the uncertainties associated with the fossil record and the preservation process. Our findings show that the commonly recognized mass extinctions have affected each plant group differently and that phases of high extinction often coincided with major floral turnovers. For instance, after the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary we infer negligible shifts in diversification of nonflowering seed plants, but find significantly decreased extinction in spore-bearing plants and increased origination rates in angiosperms, contributing to their current ecological and evolutionary dominance.

A metacalibrated time-tree documents the early rise of flowering plant phylogenetic diversity

The establishment of modern terrestrial life is indissociable from angiosperm evolution. While available molecular clock estimates of angiosperm age range from the Paleozoic to the Late Cretaceous, the fossil record is consistent with angiosperm diversification in the Early Cretaceous. The time-frame of angiosperm evolution is here estimated using a sample representing 87% of families and sequences of five plastid and nuclear markers, implementing penalized likelihood and Bayesian relaxed clocks. A literature-based review of the palaeontological record yielded calibrations for 137 phylogenetic nodes. The angiosperm crown age was bound within a confidence interval calculated with a method that considers the fossil record of the group. An Early Cretaceous crown angiosperm age was estimated with high confidence. Magnoliidae, Monocotyledoneae and Eudicotyledoneae diversified synchronously 135-130 million yr ago (Ma); Pentapetalae is 126-121 Ma; and Rosidae (123-115 Ma) preceded Asteridae (119-110 Ma). Family stem ages are continuously distributed between c. 140 and 20 Ma. This time-frame documents an early phylogenetic proliferation that led to the establishment of major angiosperm lineages, and the origin of over half of extant families, in the Cretaceous. While substantial amounts of angiosperm morphological and functional diversity have deep evolutionary roots, extant species richness was probably acquired later.

Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer from bias and low precision, even when appropriate fossil priors and best available substitution models are chosen. Much care must be taken to address the possible ramifications of substitution saturation across the entire Tree of Life.

An evaluation of fossil tip-dating versus node-age calibrations in tetraodontiform fishes (Teleostei: Percomorphaceae)

Time-calibrated phylogenies based on molecular data provide a framework for comparative studies. Calibration methods to combine fossil information with molecular phylogenies are, however, under active development, often generating disagreement about the best way to incorporate paleontological data into these analyses. This study provides an empirical comparison of the most widely used approach based on node-dating priors for relaxed clocks implemented in the programs BEAST and MrBayes, with two recently proposed improvements: one using a new fossilized birth-death process model for node dating (implemented in the program DPPDiv), and the other using a total-evidence or tip-dating method (implemented in MrBayes and BEAST). These methods are applied herein to tetraodontiform fishes, a diverse group of living and extinct taxa that features one of the most extensive fossil records among teleosts. Previous estimates of time-calibrated phylogenies of tetraodontiforms using node-dating methods reported disparate estimates for their age of origin, ranging from the late Jurassic to the early Paleocene (ca. 150-59Ma). We analyzed a comprehensive dataset with 16 loci and 210 morphological characters, including 131 taxa (95 extant and 36 fossil species) representing all families of fossil and extant tetraodontiforms, under different molecular clock calibration approaches. Results from node-dating methods produced consistently younger ages than the tip-dating approaches. The older ages inferred by tip dating imply an unlikely early-late Jurassic (ca. 185-119Ma) origin for this order and the existence of extended ghost lineages in their fossil record. Node-based methods, by contrast, produce time estimates that are more consistent with the stratigraphic record, suggesting a late Cretaceous (ca. 86-96Ma) origin. We show that the precision of clade age estimates using tip dating increases with the number of fossils analyzed and with the proximity of fossil taxa to the node under assessment. This study suggests that current implementations of tip dating may overestimate ages of divergence in calibrated phylogenies. It also provides a comprehensive phylogenetic framework for tetraodontiform systematics and future comparative studies.

The changing face of the molecular evolutionary clock

The molecular clock has played an important role in biological research, both as a description of the evolutionary process and as a tool for inferring evolutionary timescales. Genomic data have provided valuable insights into the molecular clock, allowing the patterns and causes of evolutionary rate variation to be characterized in increasing detail. I explain how genome sequences offer exciting opportunities for estimating the timescale of the Tree of Life. I describe the different approaches that have been used to deal with the computational and statistical challenges encountered in molecular clock analyses of genomic data. Finally, I offer a perspective on the future of molecular clocks, highlighting some of the key limitations and the most promising research directions.

Novel non-parametric models to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data

BACKGROUND

Early methods for estimating divergence times from gene sequence data relied on the assumption of a molecular clock. More sophisticated methods were created to model rate variation and used auto-correlation of rates, local clocks, or the so called "uncorrelated relaxed clock" where substitution rates are assumed to be drawn from a parametric distribution. In the case of Bayesian inference methods the impact of the prior on branching times is not clearly understood, and if the amount of data is limited the posterior could be strongly influenced by the prior.

RESULTS

We develop a maximum likelihood method--Physher--that uses local or discrete clocks to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data. Using two empirical data sets we show that our discrete clock estimates are similar to those obtained by other methods, and that Physher outperformed some methods in the estimation of the root age of an influenza virus data set. A simulation analysis suggests that Physher can outperform a Bayesian method when the real topology contains two long branches below the root node, even when evolution is strongly clock-like.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest it is advisable to use a variety of methods to estimate evolutionary rates and divergence times from heterochronous sequence data. Physher and the associated data sets used here are available online at http://code.google.com/p/physher/.

The fossilized birth-death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates

Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data--most commonly, fossil age estimates--are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the "fossilized birth-death" (FBD) process--a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

Background

To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes.

Results

By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support.

Probabilistic graphical model representation in phylogenetics

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion of the model space explored in statistical phylogenetics, emphasizing the need for new approaches to statistical model representation and software development. Clear communication and representation of the chosen model is crucial for: (i) reproducibility of an analysis, (ii) model development, and (iii) software design. Moreover, a unified, clear and understandable framework for model representation lowers the barrier for beginners and nonspecialists to grasp complex phylogenetic models, including their assumptions and parameter/variable dependencies. Graphical modeling is a unifying framework that has gained in popularity in the statistical literature in recent years. The core idea is to break complex models into conditionally independent distributions. The strength lies in the comprehensibility, flexibility, and adaptability of this formalism, and the large body of computational work based on it. Graphical models are well-suited to teach statistical models, to facilitate communication among phylogeneticists and in the development of generic software for simulation and statistical inference. Here, we provide an introduction to graphical models for phylogeneticists and extend the standard graphical model representation to the realm of phylogenetics. We introduce a new graphical model component, tree plates, to capture the changing structure of the subgraph corresponding to a phylogenetic tree. We describe a range of phylogenetic models using the graphical model framework and introduce modules to simplify the representation of standard components in large and complex models. Phylogenetic model graphs can be readily used in simulation, maximum likelihood inference, and Bayesian inference using, for example, Metropolis–Hastings or Gibbs sampling of the posterior distribution. [Computation; graphical models; inference; modularization; statistical phylogenetics; tree plate.]

Molecular systematics and biogeography of Logania R.Br. (Loganiaceae)

The angiosperm genus Logania R.Br. (Loganiaceae) is endemic to the mainland of Australia. A recent genetic study challenged the monophyly of Logania, suggesting that its two sections, Logania sect. Logania and Logania sect. Stomandra, do not group together. Additionally, the genus has a disjunct distribution, with a gap at the Nullarbor Plain in southern Australia. Therefore, Logania is a favourable candidate to gain insight into phylogenetic relationships and how these might intersect with Earth-history events. Our phylogenetic analyses of DNA sequences of two chloroplast markers (petD and rps16) showed that Logania sect. Logania and L. sect. Stomandra were each resolved as monophyletic, but the genus (as currently circumscribed) was not. Based on our Bayesian estimates of divergence times, the disjunct distributions within Logania sect. Stomandra could have been caused by flooding of the Eucla Basin. However, this biogeographical process cannot account for the distribution of Logania sect. Logania, with long-distance dispersal and establishment seeming more likely.

The impact of calibration and clock-model choice on molecular estimates of divergence times

Phylogenetic estimates of evolutionary timescales can be obtained from nucleotide sequence data using the molecular clock. These estimates are important for our understanding of evolutionary processes across all taxonomic levels. The molecular clock needs to be calibrated with an independent source of information, such as fossil evidence, to allow absolute ages to be inferred. Calibration typically involves fixing or constraining the age of at least one node in the phylogeny, enabling the ages of the remaining nodes to be estimated. We conducted an extensive simulation study to investigate the effects of the position and number of calibrations on the resulting estimate of the timescale. Our analyses focused on Bayesian estimates obtained using relaxed molecular clocks. Our findings suggest that an effective strategy is to include multiple calibrations and to prefer those that are close to the root of the phylogeny. Under these conditions, we found that evolutionary timescales could be estimated accurately even when the relaxed-clock model was misspecified and when the sequence data were relatively uninformative. We tested these findings in a case study of simian foamy virus, where we found that shallow calibrations caused the overall timescale to be underestimated by up to three orders of magnitude. Finally, we provide some recommendations for improving the practice of molecular-clock calibration.

Beyond fossil calibrations: realities of molecular clock practices in evolutionary biology

Molecular-based divergence dating methods, or molecular clocks, are the primary neontological tool for estimating the temporal origins of clades. While the appropriate use of vertebrate fossils as external clock calibrations has stimulated heated discussions in the paleontological community, less attention has been given to the quality and implementation of other calibration types. In lieu of appropriate fossils, many studies rely on alternative sources of age constraints based on geological events, substitution rates and heterochronous sampling, as well as dates secondarily derived from previous analyses. To illustrate the breadth and frequency of calibration types currently employed, we conducted a literature survey of over 600 articles published from 2007 to 2013. Over half of all analyses implemented one or more fossil dates as constraints, followed by geological events and secondary calibrations (15% each). Vertebrate taxa were subjects in nearly half of all studies, while invertebrates and plants together accounted for 43%, followed by viruses, protists and fungi (3% each). Current patterns in calibration practices were disproportionate to the number of discussions on their proper use, particularly regarding plants and secondarily derived dates, which are both relatively neglected in methodological evaluations. Based on our survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of the latest approaches in clock calibration, and outline strengths and weaknesses associated with each. This critique should serve as a call to action for researchers across multiple communities, particularly those working on clades for which fossil records are poor, to develop their own guidelines regarding selection and implementation of alternative calibration types. This issue is particularly relevant now, as time-calibrated phylogenies are used for more than dating evolutionary origins, but often serve as the backbone of investigations into biogeography, diversity dynamics and rates of phenotypic evolution.

An age-of-allele test of neutrality for transposable element insertions

How natural selection acts to limit the proliferation of transposable elements (TEs) in genomes has been of interest to evolutionary biologists for many years. To describe TE dynamics in populations, previous studies have used models of transposition-selection equilibrium that assume a constant rate of transposition. However, since TE invasions are known to happen in bursts through time, this assumption may not be reasonable. Here we propose a test of neutrality for TE insertions that does not rely on the assumption of a constant transposition rate. We consider the case of TE insertions that have been ascertained from a single haploid reference genome sequence. By conditioning on the age of an individual TE insertion allele (inferred by the number of unique substitutions that have occurred within the particular TE sequence since insertion), we determine the probability distribution of the insertion allele frequency in a population sample under neutrality. Taking models of varying population size into account, we then evaluate predictions of our model against allele frequency data from 190 retrotransposon insertions sampled from North American and African populations of Drosophila melanogaster. Using this nonequilibrium neutral model, we are able to explain ∼ 80% of the variance in TE insertion allele frequencies based on age alone. Controlling for both nonequilibrium dynamics of transposition and host demography, we provide evidence for negative selection acting against most TEs as well as for positive selection acting on a small subset of TEs. Our work establishes a new framework for the analysis of the evolutionary forces governing large insertion mutations like TEs, gene duplications, or other copy number variants.

Likelihood inference of non-constant diversification rates with incomplete taxon sampling

Large-scale phylogenies provide a valuable source to study background diversification rates and investigate if the rates have changed over time. Unfortunately most large-scale, dated phylogenies are sparsely sampled (fewer than 5% of the described species) and taxon sampling is not uniform. Instead, taxa are frequently sampled to obtain at least one representative per subgroup (e.g. family) and thus to maximize diversity (diversified sampling). So far, such complications have been ignored, potentially biasing the conclusions that have been reached. In this study I derive the likelihood of a birth-death process with non-constant (time-dependent) diversification rates and diversified taxon sampling. Using simulations I test if the true parameters and the sampling method can be recovered when the trees are small or medium sized (fewer than 200 taxa). The results show that the diversification rates can be inferred and the estimates are unbiased for large trees but are biased for small trees (fewer than 50 taxa). Furthermore, model selection by means of Akaike's Information Criterion favors the true model if the true rates differ sufficiently from alternative models (e.g. the birth-death model is recovered if the extinction rate is large and compared to a pure-birth model). Finally, I applied six different diversification rate models – ranging from a constant-rate pure birth process to a decreasing speciation rate birth-death process but excluding any rate shift models – on three large-scale empirical phylogenies (ants, mammals and snakes with respectively 149, 164 and 41 sampled species). All three phylogenies were constructed by diversified taxon sampling, as stated by the authors. However only the snake phylogeny supported diversified taxon sampling. Moreover, a parametric bootstrap test revealed that none of the tested models provided a good fit to the observed data. The model assumptions, such as homogeneous rates across species or no rate shifts, appear to be violated.

Rigorous approaches to species delimitation have significant implications for African crocodilian systematics and conservation

Accurate species delimitation is a central assumption of biology that, in groups such as the Crocodylia, is often hindered by highly conserved morphology and frequent introgression. In Africa, crocodilian systematics has been hampered by complex regional biogeography and confounded taxonomic history. We used rigorous molecular and morphological species delimitation methods to test the hypothesis that the slender-snouted crocodile (Mecistops cataphractus) is composed of multiple species corresponding to the Congolian and Guinean biogeographic zones. Speciation probability was assessed by using 11 mitochondrial and nuclear genes, and cranial morphology for over 100 specimens, representing the full geographical extent of the species distribution. Molecular Bayesian and phylogenetic species delimitation showed unanimous support for two Mecistops species isolated to the Upper Guinean and Congo (including Lower Guinean) biomes that were supported by 13 cranial characters capable of unambiguously diagnosing each species. Fossil-calibrated phylogenetic reconstruction estimated that the species split ± 6.5-7.5 Ma, which is congruent with intraspecies divergence within the sympatric crocodile genus Osteolaemus and the formation of the Cameroon Volcanic Line. Our results underscore the necessity of comprehensive phylogeographic analyses within currently recognized taxa to detect cryptic species within the Crocodylia. We recommend that the community of crocodilian researchers reconsider the conceptualization of crocodilian species especially in the light of the conservation ramifications for this economically and ecologically important group.