OUP accepted manuscript

Prognostic value of PGI score compared to poison severity score (PSS) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II as predictors of mortality and other adverse outcomes in acute poisoning with aluminum phosphide

Aluminum phosphide (AlP) poisoning is a life-threatening emergency prevalent in the Middle East region including Egypt. Early prediction of prognosis is critical for initiating the utmost intensive interventions. Though many scoring systems were studied for predicting the prognosis of AlP poisoning, these scores received wide criticism. Complexity and reliability were the main concerns. Therefore, this retrospective cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate the performance of the recently introduced PGI score as a predictor of case fatality, the need for mechanical ventilation and vasopressor therapy in acute AlP poisoning. Moreover, it compares the performance of PGI with the known poison severity score (PSS), and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II. Among 144 exposed patients, we reported a mortality rate of 61.1%. Non-survivors exhibited significantly higher PGI, PSS, and SAPS II than survivors. Though the PGI, PSS, and SAPS II proved their significance as predictors of mortality and, the need for MV and vasopressors, the PGI score showed a significantly higher area under the curve (AUC) as a predictor of MV (AUC = 0.848) compared to PSS (AUC = 0.731) and SAPS II (AUC = 0.749). Additively, PGI of 2 or more was a significant predictor of mortality (AUC = 0.831, sensitivity = 65.9%, and specificity = 89.3 %) and MV (p < 0.001), while PGI of 1 or more was another predictor of vasopressor need (AUC = 0.881, sensitivity = 89.0% and specificity = 79.4%). Given the PGI score's high AUCs across all outcomes, coupled with its balanced sensitivity and specificity, the PGI score could be a simple, and robust tool replacing the PSS and SAPS II for predicting mortality, clinical decision-making including the need for MV and vasopressor therapy in acute AlP exposure. Adopting the PGI score seems substantially useful in managing acute AlP poisoning, notably in resource-restricted countries.

Shock and modified shock indices in predicting poisoning severity and outcomes in acute aluminum phosphide poisoned patients

Background

Severe refractory hypotension and cardiogenic shock are the main contributors to death in acute aluminum phosphide (ALP) poisoning. Shock index (SI) and modified shock index (MSI) are easily obtained parameters that reflect shock at an early stage.

Aim

This study aimed to evaluate the role of SI and MSI in the prediction of the severity and outcomes of acute ALP poisoned patients.

Patients and methods

This cross sectional study was conducted on patients admitted to Tanta University Poison Control Centre with acute ALP poisoning from April 2022 to March 2023. Socio-demographics and toxicological data were taken, findings of clinical examination and laboratory investigations were recoded, SI was calculated by dividing heart rate over systolic blood pressure, and MSI was obtained by dividing heart rate over mean arterial pressure. Poisoning severity was assessed using poisoning severity score (PSS). Patients were divided into groups according to intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality.

Results

The study enrolled 94 patients. The median values of SI and MSI were significantly higher in ICU-admitted patients and non-survivors rather than their comparable groups. Significant positive correlations were observed between each of SI and MSI and PSS. At cut-off >1.14, SI conveyed fair performance to predict ICU admission and mortality (AUC = 0.710 and 0.739, respectively). Similarly, MSI had fair performance to predict ICU admission (AUC = 0.731) and mortality (AUC = 0.744) at cut-off >1.47 and >1.5, respectively.

Conclusion

Both SI and MSI could be considered simple bedside adjuncts to predict ICU admission and mortality in acute ALP poisoning.

Prognostic significance of poison-related factors and consumption patterns in acute aluminum phosphide poisoning

OBJECTIVES

The prognosis of acute aluminum phosphide poisoning is usually based on toxidrome features, with little focus on poison-related factors. We aimed to study the prognostic significance of poison-related factors, consumption patterns, and time delays to treatment.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study in an academic hospital in North India in patients aged ≥ 13 with aluminum phosphide poisoning from July 2019 to December 2020. During data collection, a particular emphasis was made on the poison formulation, the ingested dose, the reconstitution of poison, vomiting, and time intervals to initiate various treatments. The primary outcome was inhospital mortality.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight patients were enrolled (median age, 32 years; 37 males). The mean dose of the ingested poison was 6.56 (±5.42) g. The predominant formulation of poison was pellet (n = 41), followed by powder (n = 16). Twenty patients performed reconstitution of poison before consumption, and 13 stirred the poison while reconstituting. All patients but three developed vomiting after consumption. Inhospital mortality (n = 23, 39%) was significantly high with a higher ingested dose (P < 0.001), nonstirred reconstitution before consumption (P = 0.042), fewer vomiting episodes (P = 0.010), a delay in detection of the victim by someone (P = 0.001), and delayed initiation of intravenous fluids (P = 0.043). The secondary outcomes (shock and requirement of vasopressor or ventilation) remained unaffected by the stirring in the reconstitution group.

CONCLUSIONS

Poison-related factors and time intervals determine early risk stratification at admission in aluminum phosphide poisoning.