The first 5 years of the family clinic for HIV at Tygerberg Hospital: family demographics, survival of children and early impact of antiretroviral therapy

High mortality following early initiation of antiretroviral therapy in infants living with HIV from three African countries

Background

Even with increasing access to rapid HIV diagnosis and early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, infants living with HIV seem to have adverse outcomes. We assessed the probability of death, viral suppression, and other HIV-related events in the first three years of life among early-treated children with perinatally-acquired HIV in South Africa, Mozambique, and Mali.

Methods

We enrolled a cohort of infants who initiated ART within the initial 6 months of life and within 3 months of diagnosis. These children were monitored 2, 6, 12 and 24 weeks after enrolment, followed by biannual check-ups up to 4 years after enrolment. We assessed the probability of death, viral load (VL) suppression, severe immunosuppression (according to WHO guidelines), and engagement in care using Kaplan-Meier plots, and hazard ratios for these outcomes using multivariable Cox regression models.

Findings

Two hundred and fifteen infants were enrolled and monitored for a median of 34 months [IQR, 16.3; 44.1]. ART initiation occurred at a median of 34 days of age [IQR, 26.0; 73.0]. The probability of death at 1 year of ART was 10% (95% CI, 6-14), increased to 12% (95% CI, 8-17) at 2 and remained in 12% at 3 years. The main risk factor for HIV/AIDS-related mortality was baseline viral load [HR: 2.98 (95% CI, 1.25-7.12)]. Sixty-one of 146 (42%) children achieved sustained virological control below lower limit of detection for any ≥1 year period between enrolment and 4 years after enrolment. Viral suppression during follow-up was inversely associated with baseline viral load [Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.72 (95% CI, 0.58-0.89] and adverse maternal social events [HR: 0.26 (95% CI, 0.15-0.45)]. Adherence to ART was assessed as optimal in 81% of the visits. Female sex at birth, lower age at diagnosis and maternal adverse social life events were risk factors for low adherence [Odds ratio, OR 1.25 (95% CI, 1.00-1.56); 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.27) and 2.52 (95% CI, 2.16-12.37), respectively].

Interpretation

Despite early ART, mortality remains high in infants. High baseline VL and adverse maternal social environment increased the risk of poor outcomes. Sustained supportive strategies are essential during and after pregnancy, to achieve better survival.

Funding

Early Treated Perinatally HIV Infected Individuals: Improving Children's Actual Life (EPIICAL) is a research consortium funded by ViiV Healthcare and led by Penta Foundation. The funder was not involved in the analysis and interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the paper for publication. The corresponding authors had access to all data and take final responsibility for the decision to submit.

Horizontal HIV transmission to children of HIV-uninfected mothers: A case series and review of the global literature

BACKGROUND

Vertical transmission is the predominant route for acquisition of HIV infection in children, either in utero, intrapartum or postnatally through breast feeding. Less frequently, children may acquire HIV by horizontal transmission. Horizontal transmission may be healthcare-associated (infusion of HIV-contaminated blood products, use of contaminated needles, syringes and medical equipment, or through ingestion of HIV in expressed breastmilk). Community-acquired HIV transmission to children may occur following surrogate breastfeeding, pre-mastication of food, and sexual abuse.

METHODS

Children with suspected horizontally acquired HIV infection were identified by retrospective folder review of existing patients (2004-2014) and by prospective interview and examination of new patients (from 2009 onwards), at a hospital-based paediatric antiretroviral clinic in Cape Town, South Africa. The global literature on horizontal HIV transmission to children (1 January 1986-1 November 2019) was reviewed, to contextualize the local findings.

RESULTS

Among the 32 children with horizontal HIV transmission (15 identified retrospectively and 17 prospectively), the median age at first diagnosis was 79 months (interquartile range 28.5-91.5); most children (90.6%) had advanced HIV disease at presentation. HIV transmission was considered healthcare-associated in 15 (46.9%), community-associated in ten (31.3%), possibly healthcare or community-associated in five (15.6 %); and unknown in two children (6.3%).

CONCLUSION

Horizontal HIV transmission to children is an important public health issue, with prevention efforts requiring intervention at healthcare facility- and community-level. Greater effort should be made to promptly identify and comprehensively investigate each horizontally HIV-infected child to establish possible routes of transmission and inform future prevention strategies.

Predictors of survival among HIV-positive children on ART in Swaziland

The objective of the study was to determine predictors of survival among HIV-positive children (<15 years) in Swaziland. A retrospective cohort analysis of medical records for 4 167 children living with HIV who were initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2004 and 2008, and followed up until 2014 was conducted in clinical settings at 36 health facilities. The Kaplan Meier Estimator, signed-ranks test, and the Cox proportional hazards regression model were applied to determine survival probabilities, significant difference among stratified survival functions and adjusted hazard ratios respectively. The results reveal that the median survival time for children was 78 months (95% CI: 77-79). Children who were initiated early on ART had higher survival probability over time (HR: 0.35 [95% CI: 0.21-0.57], p < 0.001) compared to those whose ART initiation was delayed. Children within the age group of <1 years had higher hazard (HR = 1.55 [95% CI: 1.16-2.08], p < 0.001) of death than children within the age group of 1-14 years. Children who were nourished had 88% lower hazard of death (HR: 0.12 [95% CI: 0.07-0.19], p < 0.001) than severely malnourished children. The study demonstrates that ART paediatric services are effective in increasing survival among HIV infected children and early initiated children have high survival probability. Active tuberculosis (TB), malnutrition, and delayed ART initiation remain predictors of poor survival among children living with HIV.

Paediatric non-progression following grandmother-to-child HIV transmission

Background

In contrast to adult HIV infection, where slow disease progression is strongly linked to immune control of HIV mediated by protective HLA class I molecules such as HLA-B*81:01, the mechanisms by which a minority of HIV-infected children maintain normal-for-age CD4 counts and remain clinically healthy appear to be HLA class I-independent and are largely unknown. To better understand these mechanisms, we here studied a HIV-infected South African female, who remained a non-progressor throughout childhood.

Results

Phylogenetic analysis of viral sequences in the HIV-infected family members, together with the history of grand-maternal breast-feeding, indicated that, unusually, the non-progressor child had been infected via grandmother-to-child transmission. Although HLA-B*81:01 was expressed by both grandmother and grand-daughter, autologous virus in each subject encoded an escape mutation L188F within the immunodominant HLA-B*81:01-restricted Gag-specific epitope TL9 (TPQDLNTML, Gag 180–188). Since the transmitted virus can influence paediatric and adult HIV disease progression, we investigated the impact of the L188F mutant on replicative capacity. When this variant was introduced into three distinct HIV clones in vitro, viral replicative capacity was abrogated altogether. However, a virus constructed using the gag sequence of the non-progressor child replicated as efficiently as wildtype virus.

Conclusion

These findings suggest alternative sequences of events: the transmission of the uncompensated low fitness L188F to both children, potentially contributing to slow progression in both, consistent with previous studies indicating that disease progression in children can be influenced by the replicative capacity of the transmitted virus; or the transmission of fully compensated virus, and slow progression here principally the result of HLA-independent host-specific factors, yet to be defined.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-016-0300-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Communication characteristics of young children with HIV in South Africa as reported by some physicians

HIV has been shown to have significant effects on the development of a child. Currently, there is limited South African research regarding HIV and specific characteristics of communication development, and the treatment thereof, in the child infected with HIV. The objective of the research was to describe the communication characteristics of a group of children between the ages of 0 and 5 years infected with HIV at a hospital in Gauteng, South Africa. Clinic records of 203 children infected with HIV between the ages of 0 and 5 years were reviewed using a pre-designed checklist within the outreach clinic of a large regional hospital. A questionnaire was completed by four medical practitioners working with this population within the outreach clinic. A total of 91.62% of the infected children were diagnosed as being either in Stage III or IV of the disease (according to the WHO classification system of 2005), with all infants presenting with a CD4 count of ≤ 60. Most (75.37% of the total sample) were receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) at the time the data were collected. According to their medical, social, communication and general development, almost all the children qualified for Early Communication Intervention (ECI) but were not recorded as being referred for such services. A large proportion of the target population presented with opportunistic infections and/or HIV associated conditions. The results highlight the developmental characteristics of children living with HIV, and identify the need for medical doctors and allied health professionals to be provided with relevant literature or training regarding the communication development of children infected with HIV. This will facilitate appropriate referrals for ECI services.

Family matters: Co-enrollment of family members into care is associated with improved outcomes for HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background:

Although there is widespread interest in understanding how models of care for delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence patient outcomes, family-focused approaches have received little attention. In particular, there have been few investigations of whether the co-enrollment of HIV-infected family members may improve adult ART outcomes over time.

Methods:

We examined the association between co-enrollment of HIV-infected family members into care and outcomes of women initiating ART in 12 HIV care and treatment programs across sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from the mother-to-child transmission-(MTCT) Plus Initiative, women starting ART were categorized according to the co-enrollment of an HIV-infected partner and/or HIV-infected child within the same program. Mortality and loss to follow-up were assessed for up to 5 years after women's ART initiation.

Results:

Of the 2877 women initiating ART included in the analysis, 31% (n = 880) had at least 1 HIV-infected family member enrolled into care at the same program, including 24% (n = 689) who had an HIV-infected male partner, and 10% (n = 295) who had an HIV-infected child co-enrolled. There was no significant difference in the risk of death of women by family co-enrollment status (P = 0.286). However, the risk of loss to follow-up was greatest among women who did not have an HIV-infected family member co-enrolled (19% after 36 months on ART) compared with women who had an HIV-infected family member co-enrolled (3%–8% after 36 months on ART) (P < 0.001). These associations persisted after adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates and were consistent across countries and care programs.

Discussion:

These data provide novel evidence for the association between adult outcomes on ART and co-enrollment of HIV-infected family members into care at the same program. Interventions that build on women's family contexts warrant further consideration in both research and policies to promote retention in ART services across sub-Saharan Africa.

Predictors of early mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected children receiving high active antiretroviral treatment in public hospitals in Ethiopia

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is the breakthrough in care and treatment of people living with HIV, leading to a reduction in mortality and an improvement in the quality of life. Without antiretroviral treatment, most HIV-infected children die before their fifth birthday. So the objective of this study is to determine the mortality and associated factors in a cohort of HIV-infected children receiving ART in Ethiopia. A multicentre facility-based retrospective cohort study was done in selected pediatric ART units in hospitals found in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The probability of survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression models was conducted to determine the independent predictor of survival. A total of 556 children were included in this study. Of the total children, 10.4% were died in the overall cohort. More deaths (70%) occurred in the first 6 months of ART initiation, and the remaining others were still on follow-up at different hospitals. Underweight (moderate and severe; HR: 10.10; 95% CI: 2.08, 28.00; P = 0.004; and HR: 46.69; 95% CI: 9.26, 200.45; P < 0.01, respectively), advanced disease stage (WHO clinical stages III and IV; HR: 10.13: 95% CI: 2.25, 45.58; P = 0.003), poor ART adherence (HR: 11.72; 95% CI: 1.60, 48.44; P = 0.015), and hemoglobin level less than 7 g/dl (HR: 4.08: 95% CI: 1.33, 12.56; P = 0.014) were confirmed as significant independent predictors of death after controlling for other factors. Underweight, advanced disease stage, poor adherence to ART, and anemia appear to be independent predictor of survival in HIV-infected children receiving HAART at the pediatric units of public hospitals in Ethiopia. Nutritional supplementations, early initiation of HAART, close supervision, and monitoring of patients during the first 6 months, the follow up period is recommended.

Antiretroviral treatment program retention among HIV-infected children in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Retaining patients with HIV infection in care is still a major challenge in sub- Saharan Africa, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where the antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage is low. Monitoring retention is an important tool for evaluating the quality of care.

Methods and Findings

A review of medical records of HIV -infected children was performed in three health facilities in the DRC: the Amo-Congo Health center, the Monkole Clinic in Kinshasa, and the HEAL Africa Clinic in Goma. Medical records of 720 children were included. Kaplan Meier curves were constructed with the probability of retention at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 3 years. Retention rates were: 88.2% (95% CI: 85.1%–90.8%) at 6 months; 85% (95% CI: 81.5%–87.6%) at one year; 79.4% (95%CI: 75.5%–82.8%) at two years and 74.7% (95% CI: 70.5%–78.5%) at 3 years. The retention varied across study sites: 88.2%, 66.6% and 92.5% at 6 months; 84%, 59% and 90% at 12 months and 75.7%, 56.3% and 85.8% at 24 months respectively for Amo-Congo/Kasavubu, Monkole facility and HEAL Africa. After multivariable Cox regression four variables remained independently associated with attrition: study site, CD4 cell count <350 cells/µL, children younger than 2 years and children whose caregivers were member of an independent church.

Conclusions

Attrition remains a challenge for pediatric HIV positive patients in ART programs in DRC. In addition, the low coverage of pediatric treatment exacerbates the situation of pediatric HIV/AIDS.

Poor clinical outcomes for HIV infected children on antiretroviral therapy in rural Mozambique: need for program quality improvement and community engagement

INTRODUCTION

Residents of Zambézia Province, Mozambique live from rural subsistence farming and fishing. The 2009 provincial HIV prevalence for adults 15-49 years was 12.6%, higher among women (15.3%) than men (8.9%). We reviewed clinical data to assess outcomes for HIV-infected children on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in a highly resource-limited setting.

METHODS

We studied rates of 2-year mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) for children <15 years of age initiating cART between June 2006-July 2011 in 10 rural districts. National guidelines define LTFU as >60 days following last-scheduled medication pickup. Kaplan-Meier estimates to compute mortality assumed non-informative censoring. Cumulative LTFU incidence calculations treated death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Of 753 children, 29.0% (95% CI: 24.5, 33.2) were confirmed dead by 2 years and 39.0% (95% CI: 34.8, 42.9) were LTFU with unknown clinical outcomes. The cohort mortality rate was 8.4% (95% CI: 6.3, 10.4) after 90 days on cART and 19.2% (95% CI: 16.0, 22.3) after 365 days. Higher hemoglobin at cART initiation was associated with being alive and on cART at 2 years (alive: 9.3 g/dL vs. dead or LTFU: 8.3-8.4 g/dL, p<0.01). Cotrimoxazole use within 90 days of ART initiation was associated with improved 2-year outcomes Treatment was initiated late (WHO stage III/IV) among 48% of the children with WHO stage recorded in their records. Marked heterogeneity in outcomes by district was noted (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found poor clinical and programmatic outcomes among children taking cART in rural Mozambique. Expanded testing, early infant diagnosis, counseling/support services, case finding, and outreach are insufficiently implemented. Our quality improvement efforts seek to better link pregnancy and HIV services, expand coverage and timeliness of infant diagnosis and treatment, and increase follow-up and adherence.

Evaluation of parent-child pairs on antiretroviral therapy in separate adult and pediatric clinics

In Africa, HIV infection is considered a family disease. A retrospective cohort analysis was performed to describe the characteristics and outcome in 35 parent-child pairs taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) in separate adult and pediatric HIV clinics. In 26 pairs, ART was first initiated in children. Baseline median CD4 count was 122/mm(3) in adults and 376/mm(3) in children. World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 disease affected 49% of adults and 83% of children. In all, 3 parents and 1 child died. Hospitalization, poor adherence, missed appointments, or regimen change affected >50% of pairs on ART. Following tuberculosis diagnosis in their parents, 2 of the 5 children were not investigated. By week 104, 29 (83%) pairs remained on ART, and 69% of patients on ART were virologically suppressed. Parent-child pairs with advanced HIV infection had good outcomes when cared for in separate clinics. Establishing lines of communication between clinics is important. Family-centered services may provide more integrated care.

Retention of HIV-infected children on antiretroviral treatment in HIV care and treatment programs in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Retention of children in HIV care is essential for prevention of disease progression and mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort of children (aged 0 to <15 years) initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) at health facilities in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania, from January 2005 to June 2011. Retention was defined as the proportion of children known to be alive and attending care at their initiation facility; lost to follow-up (LTF) was defined as no clinic visit for more than 6 months. Cumulative incidence of ascertained survival and retention after ART initiation was estimated through 24 months using Kaplan-Meier methods. Factors associated with LTF and death were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 17,712 children initiated ART at 192 facilities: median age was 4.6 years [interquartile ratio (IQR), 1.9-8.3], median CD4 percent was 15% (IQR, 10-20) for children younger than 5 years and 265 cells per microliter (IQR, 111-461) for children aged 5 years or older. At 12 and 24 months, 80% and 72% of children were retained with 16% and 22% LTF and 5% and 7% known deaths, respectively. Retention ranged from 71% to 95% at 12 months and from 62% to 93% at 24 months across countries, respectively, and was lowest for children younger than 1 year (51% at 24 months). LTF and death were highest in children younger than 1 year and children with advanced disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Retention was lowest in young children and differed across country programs. Young children and those with advanced disease are at highest risk for LTF and death. Further evaluation of patient- and program-level factors is needed to improve health outcomes.

Response to antiretroviral therapy of HIV type 1-infected children in urban and rural settings of Uganda

From 2006 to 2011, a cohort study was conducted among 1000 children resident in urban and rural settings of Uganda to ascertain and compare the response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) among urban versus rural children and the factors associated with this response. Clinical, immunological, and virological parameters were ascertained at baseline and weeks 24, 48, 96, and 144 after ART initiation. Adherence to ART was assessed at enrollment by self-report (SR) and pill counts (PC). Overall, 499/948 (52.6%) children were resident in rural areas, 504/948 (53.1%) were male, and their mean age was 11.9±4.4 years (urban children) and 11.4±4.1 years (rural children). The urban children were more likely to switch to second-line ART at a rate of 39.9 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 28.2-56.4) versus 14.9 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 8.7-25.7), p=0.0038, develop any new WHO 3/4 events at 127/414 (30.7%) versus 108/466 (23.2%), p=0.012, and have a higher cumulative incidence of hospitalization of 54/449 (12.0%) versus 32/499 (6.4%), p=0.003, when compared to rural children. No differences were observed in mean changes in weight, height, CD4 count and percentage, and hemoglobin and viral load between urban and rural children. Adherence of ≥95% was observed in 88.2% of urban versus 91.3% of rural children by SR (p=0.130), and in 78.8% of urban versus 88.8% of rural children by PC (p<0.0001). In this study rural children had more favorable clinical outcomes and were more likely to adhere optimally to ART than urban children.

Minimizing the risk of non-vertical, non-sexual HIV infection in children--beyond mother to child transmission

After witnessing an episode of poor injection safety in large numbers of children in a rural under-resourced hospital in Uganda, we briefly review our own experience and that of others in investigating HIV infection in children considered unlikely to be through commonly identified routes such as vertical transmission, sexual abuse or blood transfusion. In the majority of cases, parents are HIV uninfected. The cumulative experience suggests that the problem is real, but with relatively low frequency. Vertical transmission is the major route for HIV to children. However, factors such as poor injection safety, undocumented surrogate breast feeding, an HIV-infected adult feeding premasticated food to a weaning toddler, poor hygienic practice in the home and using unsterilised equipment for minor surgical or traditional procedures are of cumulative concern.

Mortality of HIV-infected and uninfected children in a longitudinal cohort in rural south-west Uganda during 8 years of follow-up

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of HIV on child mortality and explore potential risk factors for mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-exposed uninfected children in a longitudinal cohort in rural Uganda.

METHODS

From July 2002 to March 2010, HIV-infected and HIV-exposed uninfected children aged 6 weeks-13 years were enrolled in an open population-based clinical cohort. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was introduced in 2005. Clinical and laboratory data were collected every 3 months. Person-years at risk were calculated from time of enrolment until earliest date of ART initiation, death or last visit. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for mortality.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine (30.2%) HIV-infected and 206 (69.8%) HIV-exposed but uninfected children were enrolled. Twenty-one children died. The mortality rate was six times higher in ART-naive HIV-infected children than in HIV-exposed but uninfected children (HR = 6.4, 95% CI = 2.4-16.6). Among HIV-infected children, mortality was highest in those aged <2 years. Decreasing weight-for-age Z (WAZ) score was the strongest risk factor for mortality among HIV-infected children (HR for unit decrease in WAZ = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.6-4.1). Thirty-five children (aged 7 months-15.6 years; median, 5.4 years) started ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among HIV-infected children was highest among those aged <2 years. Intensified efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV and ensure early HIV diagnosis and treatment are required to decrease child mortality caused by HIV in rural Africa.

"Wamepotea" (they have become lost): outcomes of HIV-positive and HIV-exposed children lost to follow-up from a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to identify the vital status and reasons for children becoming loss to follow-up (LTFU) from a large program in western Kenya.

METHODS

This was a prospective evaluation of a random sample of 30% of HIV-exposed and HIV-positive children LTFU from either an urban or rural HIV Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare clinic. LTFU is defined as absence from clinic for >6 months if on combination antiretroviral therapy and > 12 months if not. Experienced community health workers were engaged to locate them.

RESULTS

There were 97 children sampled (78 urban, 19 rural). Of these, 82% were located (78% urban, 100% rural). Among the HIV positive, 16% of the children were deceased, and 16% had not returned to clinic because of disclosure issues/discrimination in the family or community. Among the HIV exposed, 30% never returned to care because their guardians either had not disclosed their own HIV status or were afraid of family/community stigma related to their HIV status or that of the child. Among children whose HIV status was unknown, 29% of those found had actually died, and disclosure/discrimination accounted for 14% of the reasons for becoming LTFU. Other reasons included believing the child was healed by faith or through the use of traditional medicine (7%), transport costs (6%), and transferring care to other programs or clinics (8%).

CONCLUSION

After locating >80% of the children in our sample, we identified that mortality and disclosure issues including fear of family or community discrimination were the most important reasons why these children became LTFU.

Realities and Challenges of a Five Year Follow Up of Mother and Child Pairs on a PMTCT Program in Zimbabwe

Background:

Complete follow up is an essential component of observational cohorts irrespective of the type of disease.

Objectives:

To describe five years follow up of mother and child pairs on a PMTCT program, highlighting loss to follow up (LTFU) and mortality (attrition).

Study Design:

A cohort of pregnant women was enrolled from the national PMTCT program at 36 weeks gestational age attending three peri urban clinics around Harare offering maternal and child health services. Mother-infant pairs were followed up from birth and twice yearly for five years.

Results:

A total of 479 HIV infected and 571 HIV negative pregnant women were enrolled, 445(92.9%) and 495(86.6%) were followed up whereas 14(3.0%) and 3(0.5%) died in the 1st year respectively; RR (95%CI) 5.3(1.5-18.7). At five years 227(56.7%) HIV infected and 239(41.0%) HIV negative mothers turned up, whereas mortality rates were 34 and 7 per 100 person years respectively. Birth information was recorded for 401(83.7%) HIV exposed and 441(77.2%) unexposed infants, 247(51.6%) and 232(40.6) turned up in the first year whilst mortality was 58(12.9%) and 22(4.4%) respectively, RR (95%CI) 3.2(2.0-5.4). At five years 210(57.5%) HIV exposed and 239(44.3%) unexposed infants were seen, whilst mortality rates were 53 per 1000 and 15 per 1 000 person years respectively. Mortality rate for HIV infected children was 112 compared to 21 per 1 000 person years for the exposed but uninfected.

Conclusion:

HIV infected mothers and their children succumbed to mortality whereas the HIV negatives were LTFU. Mortality rates and LTFU are high within PMTCT program.

Post-HAART outcomes in pediatric populations: comparison of resource-limited and developed countries

CONTEXT

No formal comparison has been made between the pediatric post-highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) outcomes of resource-limited and developed countries.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically quantify and compare major baseline characteristics and clinical end points after HAART between resource-limited and developed settings.

METHODS

Published articles and abstracts (International AIDS Society 2009, Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections 2010) were examined from inception (first available publication for each search engine) to March 2010. Publications that contained data on post-HAART mortality, weight-for-age z score (WAZ), CD4 count, or viral load (VL) changes in pediatric populations were reviewed. Selected studies met the following criteria: (1) patients were younger than 21 years; (2) HAART was given (≥ 3 antiretroviral medications); and (3) there were >20 patients. Data were extracted for baseline age, CD4 count, VL, WAZ, and mortality, CD4 and virologic suppression over time. Studies were categorized as having been performed in a resource-limited country (RLC) or developed country (DC) on the basis of the United Nations designation. Mean percentage of deaths per cohort and deaths per 100 child-years, baseline CD4 count, VL, WAZ, and age were calculated for RLCs and DCs and compared by using independent samples t tests.

RESULTS

Forty RLC and 28 DC publications were selected (N = 17 875 RLCs; N = 1835 DC). Mean percentage of deaths per cohort and mean deaths per 100 child-years after HAART were significantly higher in RLCs than DCs (7.6 vs 1.6, P < .001, and 8.0 vs 0.9, P < .001, respectively). Mean baseline CD4% was 12% in RLCs and 23% in DCs (P = .01). Mean baseline VLs were 5.5 vs 4.7 log(10) copies per mL in RLCs versus DCs (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline CD4% and VL differ markedly between DCs and RLCs, as does mortality after pediatric HAART. Earlier diagnosis and treatment of pediatric HIV in RLCs would be expected to result in better HAART outcomes.

Increased vulnerability of rural children on antiretroviral therapy attending public health facilities in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

A large proportion of the 340,000 HIV-positive children in South Africa live in rural areas, yet there is little sub-Saharan data comparing rural paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme outcomes with urban facilities. We compared clinical, immunological and virological outcomes between children at seven rural and 37 urban facilities across four provinces in South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of routine data of children enrolled on ART between November 2003 and March 2008 in three settings, namely: urban residence and facility attendance (urban group); rural residence and facility attendance (rural group); and rural residents attending urban facilities (rural/urban group). Outcome measures were: death, loss to follow up (LTFU), virological suppression, and changes in CD4 percentage and weight-for-age-z (WAZ) scores. Kaplan-Meier estimates, logrank tests, multivariable Cox regression and generalized estimating equation models were used to compare outcomes between groups.

RESULTS

In total, 2332 ART-naïve children were included, (1727, 228 and 377 children in the urban, rural and rural/urban groups, respectively). At presentation, rural group children were older (6.7 vs. 5.6 and 5.8 years), had lower CD4 cell percentages (10.0% vs. 12.8% and 12.7%), lower WAZ scores (-2.06 vs. -1.46 and -1.41) and higher proportions with severe underweight (26% vs.15% and 15%) compared with the urban and rural/urban groups, respectively. Mortality was significantly higher in the rural group and LTFU significantly increased in the rural/urban group. After 24 months of ART, mortality probabilities were 3.4% (CI: 2.4-4.8%), 7.7% (CI: 4.5-13.0%) and 3.1% (CI: 1.7-5.6%) p = 0.0137; LTFU probabilities were 11.5% (CI: 9.3-14.0%), 8.8% (CI: 4.5-16.9%) and 16.6% (CI: 12.4-22.6%), p = 0.0028 in the urban, rural and rural/urban groups, respectively. The rural group had an increased adjusted mortality probability, adjusted hazards ratio 2.41 (CI: 1.25-4.67) and the rural/urban group had an increased adjusted LTFU probability, aHR 2.85 (CI: 1.41-5.79). The rural/urban group had a decreased adjusted probability of virological suppression compared with the urban group at any timepoint on treatment, adjusted odds ratio 0.67 (CI: 0.48-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

Rural HIV-positive children are a vulnerable group, exhibiting delayed access to ART and an increased risk of poor outcomes while on ART. Expansion of rural paediatric ART programmes, with future research exploring improvements to rural health system effectiveness, is required.

Retention of HIV-infected and HIV-exposed children in a comprehensive HIV clinical care programme in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

To describe incidence rates (IR) and risk factors for loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) among HIV-infected and HIV-exposed children in a large HIV treatment programme in Western Kenya.

METHODS

The USAID-AMPATH Partnership has enrolled >100,000 patients (20% children) at 23 clinic sites throughout western Kenya. LTFU is defined as being absent from the clinic for >3 months if on combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) and >6 months if not. Included in this analysis were children aged <14 years, HIV exposed or infected at enrollment, and enrolled between April 2002 and March 2009. The IR for LTFU are presented per 100 child-years (CY) of follow-up. Proportional hazards models with time-independent and time-dependent covariates were used to model factors associated with LTFU. Weight for height Z-scores were calculated using EpiInfo, with severe malnutrition being defined as a Z-score

RESULTS

There were 13,510 children eligible for analysis, comprising 3106 children who at enrollment were HIV infected and 10,404 children who were HIV exposed. The overall IR of LTFU was 18.4 (17.8-18.9) per 100 CY. Among HIV-infected children, 15.2 (13.8-16.7) and 14.1 (13.1-15.8) per 100 CY became LTFU, pre- and post-cART initiation, respectively. The only independent risk factor for becoming LTFU among the HIV-infected children was severe immune suppression (AHR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.51-3.12). Among the HIV-exposed children, 20.1 per 100 (19.4-20.7) became LTFU. Independent risk factors for LTFU among them were being severely low weight for height (AHR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.25-2.28), being orphaned at enrollment (AHR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.23-1.64), being CDC Class B or C (AHR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.14-1.74), and having received cART (AHR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.23-1.99). Protective against becoming LTFU among the HIV exposed were testing HIV positive (AHR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.21-0.32), older age (AHR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.85-0.96), enrolling in later time periods, and receiving food supplementation (AHR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.32-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high rate of LTFU among these highly vulnerable children, particularly among the HIV exposed. These data suggest that HIV-infected and HIV-exposed children are at especially high risk for LTFU if they are sick or malnourished.

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Key Words

• pediatrics
• hiv
• africa
• retention
• losses-to-follow-up

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MESH Headings

• Adolescent
• Age Factors
• Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use
• Child
• Child, Preschool
• Dietary Supplements/statistics & numerical data
• Epidemiologic Methods
• Female
• HIV Infections/drug therapy
• HIV Infections/epidemiology
• HIV Infections/prevention & control
• Humans
• Infant
• Kenya/epidemiology
• Male
• Patient Dropouts/statistics & numerical data
• Program Evaluation

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Grants

• U01 AI069911 NIAID NIH HHS
• U01-AI0669911 NIAID NIH HHS

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Affiliation(s)

Paula Braitstein Moi University School of Medicine, Eldoret, Kenya.
Adrian Katshcke
Changyu Shen
Edwin Sang
Winstone Nyandiko
Vincent Ooko Ochieng
Rachel Vreeman
Constantin T Yiannoutsos
Kara Wools-Kaloustian
Samwel Ayaya

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Collaborators Collapse

Lessons learned from family-centred models of treatment for children living with HIV: current approaches and future directions

BACKGROUND

Despite strong global interest in family-centred HIV care models, no reviews exist that detail the current approaches to family-centred care and their impact on the health of children with HIV. A systematic review of family-centred HIV care programmes was conducted in order to describe both programme components and paediatric cohort characteristics.

METHODS

We searched online databases, including PubMed and the International AIDS Society abstract database, using systematic criteria. Data were extracted regarding programme setting, staffing, services available and enrolment methods, as well as cohort demographics and paediatric outcomes.

RESULTS

The search yielded 25 publications and abstracts describing 22 separate cohorts. These contained between 43 and 657 children, and varied widely in terms of staffing, services provided, enrolment methods and cohort demographics. Data on clinical outcomes was limited, but generally positive. Excellent adherence, retention in care, and low mortality and/or loss to follow up were documented.

CONCLUSIONS

The family-centred model of care addresses many needs of infected patients and other household members. Major reported obstacles involved recruiting one or more types of family members into care, early diagnosis and treatment of infected children, preventing mortality during children's first six months of highly active antiretroviral therapy, and staffing and infrastructural limitations. Recommendations include: developing interventions to enrol hard-to-reach populations; identifying high-risk patients at treatment initiation and providing specialized care; and designing and implementing evidence-based care packages. Increased research on family-centred care, and better documentation of interventions and outcomes is also critical.

Level of viral load and antiretroviral resistance after 6 months of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor first-line treatment in HIV-1-infected children in Mali

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the virological response and to describe the resistance profiles in the case of failure after 6 months of first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-1-infected children living in resource-limited settings.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Ninety-seven HIV-1-infected children who started two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (mainly zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine) in Mali were prospectively studied. Virological failure (VF) was defined as loss to follow-up, death or HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) of >400 copies/mL at 6 months. When VL was >50 copies/mL, a genotypic resistance test was performed.

RESULTS

Among the 97 children, median age at antiretroviral initiation was 31 months and the majority were in WHO clinical (77.3%) and immunological (70.1%) stage III or IV. At month 6, 44% of children had VL > 400 copies/mL (61% VF). Among the children with detectable VL, 30/37 genotypic resistance tests were available, 8 with wild-type viruses and 22 with resistance mutations (73%): 19 M184V/I, 21 NNRTI mutations and only 3 thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) (K70R, D67N and L210W in three distinct viruses). At failure, 6/8 children with wild-type viruses had a VL of <1000 copies/mL whereas 21/22 with resistant viruses had a VL of >1000 copies/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Under NNRTI-based regimens, early detection of VF could allow the reinforcement of adherence when VL was <1000 copies/mL, because in most of these cases no resistance mutations were detected, or a change to a protease inhibitor-based regimen if VL was >1000 copies/mL. The low frequency of TAMs suggests that most NRTIs can be used in a second-line regimen after early failure.

Low risk of death, but substantial program attrition, in pediatric HIV treatment cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

To date, an estimated 10% of children eligible for antiretroviral treatment (ART) receive it, and the frequency of retention in programs is unknown. We evaluated the 2-year risks of death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) of children after ART initiation in a multicenter study in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

Pooled analysis of routine individual data from 16 participating clinics produced overall Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probabilities of death or LTFU after ART initiation. Risk factors analysis used Weibull regression, accounting for between-cohort heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The median age of 2405 children at ART initiation was 4.9 years (12%, younger than 12 months), 52% were male, 70% had severe immunodeficiency, and 59% started ART with a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. The 2-year risk of death after ART initiation was 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9 to 8.1), independently associated with baseline severe anemia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 4.10 [CI: 2.36 to 7.13]), immunodeficiency (adjusted aHR: 2.95 [CI: 1.49 to 5.82]), and severe clinical status (adjusted aHR: 3.64 [CI: 1.95 to 6.81]); the 2-year risk of LTFU was 10.3% (CI: 8.9 to 11.9), higher in children with severe clinical status.

CONCLUSIONS

Once on treatment, the 2-year risk of death is low but the LTFU risk is substantial. ART is still mainly initiated at advanced disease stage in African children, reinforcing the need for early HIV diagnosis, early initiation of ART, and procedures to increase program retention.

Managing HIV in the PICU--the experience at the Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital in Cape Town

The HIV pandemic has affected children throughout the developing world. This article describes the experience of the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit at the Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. Over the last 20 years we have improved our management of HIV infected children requiring intensive care admission. In the absence of anti-retroviral therapy, long term outcomes from PICU admission of HIV infected children have not improved significantly, and it is debatable whether PICU admission is justified. Once anti-retroviral therapy is available to children, there may be significant improvements in outcome and possible affected children should be admitted to the PICU if resources are available.

High incidence of antimicrobial resistant organisms including extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in nasopharyngeal and blood isolates of HIV-infected children from Cape Town, South Africa

Background

There is little information on nasopharyngeal (NP) flora or bacteremia in HIV-infected children. Our aim was to describe the organisms and antimicrobial resistance patterns in children enrolled in a prospective study comparing daily and three times weekly trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) and isoniazid (INH) or placebo prophylaxis.

Methods

NP swabs were taken at baseline from HIV-infected children enrolled in the study. Standard microbiological techniques were used. Children were grouped according to previous or current exposure to TMP-SMX and whether enrolled to the study during a period of hospitalization. Blood culture results were also recorded within 12 months of baseline.

Results

Two hundred and three children, median age 1.8 (Interquartile [IQ]: 0.7–4) years had NP swabs submitted for culture. One hundred and eighty-four (90.7%) had either stage B or C HIV disease. One hundred and forty-one (69.8%) were receiving TMP-SMX and 19 (9.4%) were on antiretroviral therapy. The majority, 168 (82%) had a history of hospitalization and 91 (44.8%) were enrolled during a period of hospitalization. Thirty-two subjects (16.2%) died within 12 months of study entry.

One hundred and eighty-one potential pathogens were found in 167 children. The most commonly isolated organisms were Streptococcus pneumoniae (48: 22.2%), Gram-negative respiratory organisms (Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis) (47: 21.8%), Staphylococcus aureus (44: 20.4%), Enterobacteriaceae 32 (14.8%) and Pseudomonas 5 (2.3%).

Resistance to TMP-SMX occurred in > 80% of pathogens except for M. catarrhalis (2: 18.2% of tested organisms). TMP-SMX resistance tended to be higher in those receiving it at baseline (p = 0.065). Carriage of Methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) was significantly associated with being on TMP-SMX at baseline (p = 0.002). Minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) to penicillin were determined for 18 S. pneumoniae isolates: 7 (38.9%) were fully sensitive (MIC ≤ 0.06 μg/ml), 9 (50%) had intermediate resistance (MIC 0.12 – 1 μg/ml) and 2 (11.1%) had high level resistance (MIC ≥2 μg/ml). Fifty percent of Enterobacteriaceae produced extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) (resistant to third generation cephalosporins) and 56% were resistant to gentamicin. Seventy-seven percent of S. aureus were MRSA. Carriage of resistant organisms was not associated with hospitalization.

On multivariate logistic regression, risk factors for colonization with Enterobacteriaceae were age ≤ one year (Odds ratio 4.4; 95% Confidence Interval 1.9–10.9; p = 0.0008) and CDC stage C disease (Odds ratio 3.6; 95% Confidence Interval 1.5–8.6; p = 0.005)

Nineteen (9.4%) subjects had 23 episodes of bacteremia. Enterobacteriaceae were most commonly isolated (13 of 25 isolates), of which 6 (46%) produced ESBL and were resistant to gentamicin.

Conclusion

HIV-infected children are colonized with potential pathogens, most of which are resistant to commonly used antibiotics. TMP-SMX resistance is extremely common. Antibiotic resistance is widespread in colonizing organisms and those causing invasive disease. Antibiotic recommendations should take cognizance of resistance patterns. Antibiotics appropriate for ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae and MRSA should be used for severely ill HIV-infected children in our region. Further study of antibiotic resistance patterns in HIV-infected children from other areas is needed.

Cross Continents Collaboration for Kids (3Cs4kids) Analysis and Writing Committee. Markers for predicting mortality in untreated HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the prognostic value of selected laboratory and growth markers on the short-term risk of mortality in untreated HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings.

DESIGN

A meta-analysis of individual longitudinal data on children aged 12 months onwards from 10 studies (nine African, one Brazilian in the 3Cs4kids collaboration).

METHODS

The risk of death within 12 months based on age and the most recent measurements of laboratory and growth markers was estimated using Poisson regression models, adjusted for cotrimoxazole prophylaxis use and study effects.

RESULTS

A total of 2510 children contributed 357 deaths during 3769 child-years-at-risk, with 81% follow-up occurring after start of cotrimoxazole. At first measurement, median age was 4.0 years (interquartile range, 2.2-7.0 years), median CD4% was 15% and weight-for-age z-score -1.9. CD4% and CD4 cell count were the strongest predictors of mortality, followed by weight-for-age and haemoglobin. After adjusting for these markers, the effects of total lymphocyte count and BMI-for-age were relatively small. Young children who were both severely malnourished and anaemic had high mortality regardless of CD4 values, particularly those aged 1-2 years. By contrast, high CD4% or CD4 cell count values predicted low mortality level amongst either children older than 5 years or those younger with neither severe malnutrition nor anaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

CD4 measurements are the most important indicator of mortality and wider access to affordable tests is needed in resource-limited settings. Evaluation of antiretroviral initiation in children also needs to consider weight-for-age and haemoglobin. Prevention and treatment of malnutrition and anaemia is integral to HIV paediatric care and could improve survival.

Efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected children in Kenya

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have investigated the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected children in resource-poor settings. This observational, retrospective analysis describes the clinical, immunologic, and virologic effects of highly active antiretroviral therapy in treatment-naive, HIV-infected children in Mombasa, Kenya. In keeping with a public health approach, all children were treated by using a simplified, nationally approved, triple-drug regimen.

METHODS

Clinical data and stored plasma samples from 29 children who were followed prospectively between April 2003 and October 2004 were analyzed. All children received generic formulations of nevirapine, zidovudine, and lamivudine and were evaluated at baseline and at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 months. At each visit, weight and CD4 lymphocyte counts were measured and plasma samples were stored for analysis. HIV RNA load was determined retrospectively at baseline and 9 months after initiation of therapy.

RESULTS

The mean age of the children was 8.5 years (range: 2-16 years). At baseline, the mean CD4 count (+/-SD) was 182.3 x 10(6) cells per microL (+/-145.6). On treatment, CD4 counts increased step-wise by a mean of 187 x 10(6) cells per microL at 3 months, 293 cells per microL at 6 months, 308 cells per microL at 9 months, 334 cells per microL at 12 months, and 363 cells per microL at 15 months. The mean plasma viral load decreased from a baseline level of 622,712 to 35,369 copies per mL, and at 9 months was undetectable in 55% of the patients. Mean z scores for weight for age increased from a baseline of -1.61 to -1.12 at 12 months into therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

A public health approach using 1 treatment regimen in generic form showed excellent efficacy among treatment-naive, HIV-infected children in a resource-limited country. Clinical and immunologic improvement occurred in all patients, but 9 months after the start of therapy, only 55% of the children had an undetectable viral load.

Preliminary outcomes of a paediatric highly active antiretroviral therapy cohort from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

Few studies address the use of paediatric highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Africa.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study to investigate preliminary outcomes of all children eligible for HAART at Sinikithemba HIV/AIDS clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Immunologic, virologic, clinical, mortality, primary caregiver, and psychosocial variables were collected and analyzed.

Results

From August 31, 2003 until October 31, 2005, 151 children initiated HAART. The median age at HAART initiation was 5.7 years (range 0.3–15.4). Median follow-up time of the cohort after HAART initiation was 8 months (IQR 3.5–13.5). The median change in CD4% from baseline (p < 0.001) was 10.2 (IQR 5.0–13.8) at 6 months (n = 90), and 16.2 (IQR 9.6–20.3) at 12 months (n = 59). Viral loads (VLs) were available for 100 children at 6 months of which 84% had HIV-1 RNA levels ≤ 50 copies/mL. At 12 months, 80.3% (n = 61) had undetectable VLs. Sixty-five out of 88 children (73.8%) reported a significant increase (p < 0.001) in weight after the first month. Eighty-nine percent of the cohort (n = 132) reported ≤ 2 missed doses during any given treatment month (> 95%adherence). Seventeen patients (11.3%) had a regimen change; two (1.3%) were due to antiretroviral toxicity. The Kaplan-Meier one year survival estimate was 90.9% (95%confidence interval (CI) 84.8–94.6). Thirteen children died during follow-up (8.6%), one changed service provider, and no children were lost to follow-up. All 13 deaths occurred in children with advanced HIV disease within 5 months of treatment initiation. In multivariate analysis of baseline variables against mortality using Cox proportional-hazards model, chronic gastroenteritis was associated with death [hazard ratio (HR), 12.34; 95%CI, 1.27–119.71) and an HIV-positive primary caregiver was found to be protective against mortality [HR, 0.12; 95%CI, 0.02–0.88). Age, orphanhood, baseline CD4%, and hemoglobin were not predicators of mortality in our cohort. Fifty-two percent of the cohort had at least one HIV-positive primary caregiver, and 38.4% had at least one primary caregiver also on HAART at Sinikithemba clinic.

Conclusion

This report suggests that paediatric HAART can be effective despite the challenges of a resource-limited setting.

Care and treatment of HIV-infected children in Africa: issues and challenges at the district hospital level

More than 90% of pediatric HIV infection occurs in sub-Saharan Africa and 75% of these children currently die before their fifth birthday. Most HIV-infected children in Africa rely on district hospitals for HIV treatment, but insufficient attention has been paid to improving HIV/AIDS care at this level. Considerable confusion exists about optimal use of combination antiretroviral treatment, prophylaxis for opportunistic infections and other rational healthcare interventions that can greatly improve the quality of life for these children. A simple and inexpensive infant HIV diagnostic assay and alternative laboratory markers of pediatric HIV disease progression would be highly beneficial. Routine anthropometric and neurodevelopmental assessments could help guide initiation and monitoring of antiretroviral therapy. Even in the absence of antiretroviral therapy, interventions such as immunizations, provision of micronutrients and nutrition counseling, prevention and treatment of opportunistic as well as endemic infections (such as helminths and malaria) can substantially reduce pediatric HIV-related morbidity and mortality. The need for pain relief, palliative care, counseling and emotional support is often underestimated. Surmounting the sense of hopelessness by providing district healthcare workers with training in basic pediatric HIV/AIDS care is an urgent priority.

Determinants of survival without antiretroviral therapy after infancy in HIV-1-infected Zambian children in the CHAP Trial

BACKGROUND

There are few data on predictors of HIV progression in untreated children in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

Children with HIV Antibiotic Prophylaxis (CHAP) was a randomized trial comparing cotrimoxazole prophylaxis with placebo in HIV-infected Zambian children. The prognostic value of baseline characteristics was investigated using Cox models.

RESULTS

Five hundred fourteen children aged 1 to 14 (median 5.5) years contributed 607 years follow-up (maximum 2.6 years). Half were boys, and in 67%, the mother was the primary carer; at baseline, median CD4 percentage was 11% and weight was less than third percentile in 67%. One hundred sixty-five children died (27.2 per 100 years at risk; 95% confidence interval 23.3-31.6). Low weight-for-age, CD4 percentage, hemoglobin, mother as primary carer, current malnutrition, and previous hospital admissions for respiratory tract infections or recurrent severe bacterial infections were independent predictors of poorer survival, whereas oral candidiasis predicted poorer survival only when baseline CD4 percentage was not considered. Mortality rates per 100 child years of 44.5 (37.2-53.2), 14.7 (10.9-19.8), and 2.3 (0.3-16.7) were associated with new World Health Organization stages 4, 3, and 1/2, respectively, applied retrospectively; very low weight-for-age was the only staging feature for 42% of stage 4 children.

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition and hospitalizations for respiratory/bacterial infections predict mortality independent of immunosuppression, suggesting that they capture HIV- and non-HIV-related mortality, whereas oral candidiasis is a proxy for immunosuppression.