1
|
Bukhari MH, Shad MY, Nguyen USDT, Treviño C JA, Jung W, Bajwa WU, Gallego-Hernández AL, Robinson R, Corral-Frías NS, Hamer GL, Wang P, Annan E, Ra CK, Keellings D, Haque U. A Bayesian spatiotemporal approach to modelling arboviral diseases in Mexico. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2023; 117:867-874. [PMID: 37681342 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trad064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 07/23/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 09/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of disease prevalence clusters of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) virus and how socio-economic and climatic variables simultaneously influence the risk and rate of occurrence of infection in Mexico. METHODS To determine the spatiotemporal clustering and the effect of climatic and socio-economic covariates on the rate of occurrence of disease and risk in Mexico, we applied correlation methods, seasonal and trend decomposition using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing, hotspot analysis and conditional autoregressive Bayesian models. RESULTS We found cases of the disease are decreasing and a significant association between DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases and climatic and socio-economic variables. An increment of cases was identified in the northeastern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. Climatic and socio-economic covariates were significantly associated with the rate of occurrence and risk of the three arboviral disease cases. CONCLUSION The association of climatic and socio-economic factors is predominant in the northeastern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases showed an increased risk in several states in these regions and need urgent attention to allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable regions in Mexico.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Muhammad Yousaf Shad
- Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
- Department of Mathematics, Namal University, Talagang Road, Mianwali 42250, Pakistan
| | - Uyen-Sa D T Nguyen
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Centre, Fort Worth, TX 76107, USA
| | - Jesús A Treviño C
- Department of Urban Affairs, School of Architecture, Universidad Autónoma de NUevo León ÚV. Universidad s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, San Nicolás de los Garza, Nuevo León, Mexico
| | - Woojin Jung
- School of Social Work, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Waheed U Bajwa
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Department of Statistics, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08854, USA
| | | | - Renee Robinson
- College of Pharmacy, Idaho State University, Pocatello, Idaho 83209, USA
| | | | - Gabriel L Hamer
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Penghua Wang
- Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, U Conn Health, Room L3057, Farmington CT 06030, USA
| | - Esther Annan
- Center for Health and Well-being, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Chaelin K Ra
- Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - David Keellings
- Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Ubydul Haque
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology and Rutgers Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Gardini Sanches Palasio R, Marques Moralejo Bermudi P, Luiz de Lima Macedo F, Reis Santana LM, Chiaravalloti-Neto F. Zika, chikungunya and co-occurrence in Brazil: space-time clusters and associated environmental-socioeconomic factors. Sci Rep 2023; 13:18026. [PMID: 37865641 PMCID: PMC10590386 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-42930-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/16/2023] [Indexed: 10/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya and Zika have been neglected as emerging diseases. This study aimed to analyze the space-time patterns of their occurrence and co-occurrence and their associated environmental and socioeconomic factors. Univariate (individually) and multivariate (co-occurrence) scans were analyzed for 608,388 and 162,992 cases of chikungunya and Zika, respectively. These occurred more frequently in the summer and autumn. The clusters with the highest risk were initially located in the northeast, dispersed to the central-west and coastal areas of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (2018-2021), and then increased in the northeast (2019-2021). Chikungunya and Zika demonstrated decreasing trends of 13% and 40%, respectively, whereas clusters showed an increasing trend of 85% and 57%, respectively. Clusters with a high co-occurrence risk have been identified in some regions of Brazil. High temperatures are associated with areas at a greater risk of these diseases. Chikungunya was associated with low precipitation levels, more urbanized environments, and places with greater social inequalities, whereas Zika was associated with high precipitation levels and low sewage network coverage. In conclusion, to optimize the surveillance and control of chikungunya and Zika, this study's results revealed high-risk areas with increasing trends and priority months and the role of socioeconomic and environmental factors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Raquel Gardini Sanches Palasio
- Laboratory of Spatial Analysis in Health (LAES), Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo (FSP/USP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
| | - Patricia Marques Moralejo Bermudi
- Laboratory of Spatial Analysis in Health (LAES), Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo (FSP/USP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Fernando Luiz de Lima Macedo
- Epidemiological Surveillance Center (CVE) Prof. Alexandre Vranjac, Coordination of Disease Control, Health Department of the State of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Lidia Maria Reis Santana
- Epidemiological Surveillance Center (CVE) Prof. Alexandre Vranjac, Coordination of Disease Control, Health Department of the State of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- Federal University of Sao Paulo (Unifesp), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Francisco Chiaravalloti-Neto
- Laboratory of Spatial Analysis in Health (LAES), Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo (FSP/USP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|