Karnal Bunt of Wheat Newly Reported from the African Continent

Four In Silico Designed and Validated qPCR Assays to Detect and Discriminate Tilletia indica and T. walkeri, Individually or as a Complex

Simple Summary

Plant pathogens represent a constant threat to human and animal food, as well as the economy. International trading is constantly expanding and has been known as a means of transportation and introduction for plant pests (e.g., bacteria, viruses, fungi, and insects) in new areas. They can damage or completely ruin a harvest and there are often strict regulations for the most unwanted plant pests in order to keep their incidence confined. The fungal plant pathogen Tilletia indica causes Karnal bunt, a wheat disease that breaks or hollows grains, grows in dark powdery masses, and emits a foul fishy odor, and is therefore highly regulated by a number of country authorities, many of which respond by imposing quarantine regulations. While there are many diagnostic methods developed (microscopy, molecular assays, etc.) to identify Karnal bunt, they have limitations. This study presents four highly sensitive quantitative PCR assays with molecular probes targeting unknown genomic regions for the detection and identification of T. indica and T. walkeri—its closest relative—and the species-complex including both species. Bioinformatics analyses of DNA sequences were used to design the toolkit presented.

Abstract

Several fungi classified in the genus Tilletia are well-known to infect grass species including wheat (Triticum). Tilletia indica is a highly unwanted wheat pathogen causing Karnal bunt, subject to quarantine regulations in many countries. Historically, suspected Karnal bunt infections were identified by morphology, a labour-intensive process to rule out other tuberculate-spored species that may be found as contaminants in grain shipments, and the closely-related pathogen T. walkeri on ryegrass (Lolium). Molecular biology advances have brought numerous detection tools to discriminate Tilletia congeners (PCR, qPCR, etc.). While those tests may help to identify T. indica more rapidly, they share weaknesses of targeting insufficiently variable markers or lacking sensitivity in a zero-tolerance context. A recent approach used comparative genomics to identify unique regions within target species, and qPCR assays were designed in silico. This study validated four qPCR tests based on single-copy genomic regions and with highly sensitive limits of detection (~200 fg), two to detect T. indica and T. walkeri separately, and two newly designed, targeting both species as a complex. The assays were challenged with reference DNA of the targets, their close relatives, other crop pathogens, the wheat host, and environmental specimens, ensuring a high level of specificity for accurate discrimination.

Centenary of Soil and Air Borne Wheat Karnal Bunt Disease Research: A Review

Karnal bunt (KB) of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), known as partial bunt has its origin in Karnal, India and is caused by Tilletia indica (Ti). Its incidence had grown drastically since late 1960s from northwestern India to northern India in early 1970s. It is a seed, air and soil borne pathogen mainly affecting common wheat, durum wheat, triticale and other related species. The seeds become inedible, inviable and infertile with the precedence of trimethylamine secreted by teliospores in the infected seeds. Initially the causal pathogen was named Tilletia indica but was later renamed Neovossia indica. The black powdered smelly spores remain viable for years in soil, wheat straw and farmyard manure as primary sources of inoculum. The losses reported were as high as 40% in India and also the cumulative reduction of national farm income in USA was USD 5.3 billion due to KB. The present review utilizes information from literature of the past 100 years, since 1909, to provide a comprehensive and updated understanding of KB, its causal pathogen, biology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, etc. Next generation sequencing (NGS) is gaining popularity in revolutionizing KB genomics for understanding and improving agronomic traits like yield, disease tolerance and disease resistance. Genetic resistance is the best way to manage KB, which may be achieved through detection of genes/quantitative trait loci (QTLs). The genome-wide association studies can be applied to reveal the association mapping panel for understanding and obtaining the KB resistance locus on the wheat genome, which can be crossed with elite wheat cultivars globally for a diverse wheat breeding program. The review discusses the current NGS-based genomic studies, assembly, annotations, resistant QTLs, GWAS, technology landscape of diagnostics and management of KB. The compiled exhaustive information can be beneficial to the wheat breeders for better understanding of incidence of disease in endeavor of quality production of the crop.

Karnal Bunt: A Re-Emerging Old Foe of Wheat

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop health assumes unprecedented significance in being the second most important staple crop of the world. It is host to an array of fungal pathogens attacking the plant at different developmental stages and accrues various degrees of yield losses owing to these. Tilletia indica that causes Karnal bunt (KB) disease in wheat is one such fungal pathogen of high quarantine importance restricting the free global trade of wheat besides the loss of grain yield as well as quality. With global climate change, the disease appears to be shifting from its traditional areas of occurrence with reports of increased vulnerabilities of new areas across the continents. This KB vulnerability of new geographies is of serious concern because once established, the disease is extremely difficult to eradicate and no known instance of its complete eradication using any management strategy has been reported yet. The host resistance to KB is the most successful as well as preferred strategy for its mitigation and control. However, breeding of KB resistant wheat cultivars has proven to be not so easy, and the low success rate owes to the scarcity of resistance sources, extremely laborious and regulated field screening protocols delaying identification/validation of putative resistance sources, and complex quantitative nature of resistance with multiple genes conferring only partial resistance. Moreover, given a lack of comprehensive understanding of the KB disease epidemiology, host-pathogen interaction, and pathogen evolution. Here, in this review, we attempt to summarize the progress made and efforts underway toward a holistic understanding of the disease itself with a specific focus on the host-pathogen interaction between T. indica and wheat as key elements in the development of resistant germplasm. In this context, we emphasize the tools and techniques being utilized in development of KB resistant germplasm by illuminating upon the genetics concerning the host responses to the KB pathogen including a future course. As such, this article could act as a one stop information primer on this economically important and re-emerging old foe threatening to cause devastating impacts on food security and well-being of communities that rely on wheat.

Genome Wide Association Study of Karnal Bunt Resistance in a Wheat Germplasm Collection from Afghanistan

Karnal bunt disease of wheat, caused by the fungus Neovossia indica, is one of the most important challenges to the grain industry as it affects the grain quality and also restricts the international movement of infected grain. It is a seed-, soil- and airborne disease with limited effect of chemical control. Currently, this disease is contained through the deployment of host resistance but further improvement is limited as only a few genotypes have been found to carry partial resistance. To identify genomic regions responsible for resistance in a set of 339 wheat accessions, genome-wide association study (GWAS) was undertaken using the DArTSeq^® technology, in which 18 genomic regions for Karnal bunt resistance were identified, explaining 5–20% of the phenotypic variation. The identified quantitative trait loci (QTL) on chromosome 2BL showed consistently significant effects across all four experiments, whereas another QTL on 5BL was significant in three experiments. Additional QTLs were mapped on chromosomes 1DL, 2DL, 4AL, 5AS, 6BL, 6BS, 7BS and 7DL that have not been mapped previously, and on chromosomes 4B, 5AL, 5BL and 6BS, which have been reported in previous studies. Germplasm with less than 1% Karnal bunt infection have been identified and can be used for resistance breeding. The SNP markers linked to the genomic regions conferring resistance to Karnal bunt could be used to improve Karnal bunt resistance through marker-assisted selection.

Unravelling the Complex Genetics of Karnal Bunt (Tilletia indica) Resistance in Common Wheat (Triticum aestivum) by Genetic Linkage and Genome-Wide Association Analyses

Karnal bunt caused by Tilletia indica Mitra [syn. Neovossia indica (Mitra) Mundkur] is a significant biosecurity concern for wheat-exporting countries that are free of the disease. It is a seed-, soil-and air-borne disease with no effective chemical control measures. The current study used data from multi-year field experiments of two bi-parental populations and a genome-wide association (GWA) mapping panel to unravel the genetic basis for resistance in common wheat. Broad-sense heritability for Karnal bunt resistance in the populations varied from 0.52 in the WH542×HD29 population, to 0.61 in the WH542×W485 cross and 0.71 in a GWAS panel. Quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis with seven years of phenotypic data identified a major locus on chromosome 3B (R² = 27.8%) and a minor locus on chromosome 1A (R² = 12.2%), in the WH542×HD29 population, with both parents contributing the high-value alleles. A major locus (R² = 27.8%) and seven minor loci (R² = 4.4–15.8%) were detected in the WH542×W485 population. GWA mapping validated QTL regions in the bi-parent populations, but also identified novel loci not previously associated with Karnal bunt resistance. Meta-QTL analysis aligned the results from this study with those reported in wheat over the last two decades. Two major clusters were detected, the first on chromosome 4B, which clustered with Qkb.ksu-4B, QKb.cimmyt-4BL, Qkb.cim-4BL, and the second on chromosome 3B, which clustered with Qkb.cnl-3B, QKb.cimmyt-3BS and Qkb.cim-3BS1. The results provide definitive chromosomal assignments for QTL/genes controlling Karnal bunt resistance in common wheat, and will be useful in pre-emptive breeding against the pathogen in wheat-producing areas that are free of the disease.

Genetic Mapping of Resistance in Hexaploid Wheat for a Quarantine Disease: Karnal Bunt

Karnal bunt (KB) of wheat, caused by Tilletia indica, is one of the greatest challenges to grain industry, not because of yield loss, but quarantine regulations that restrict international movement and trade of affected stocks. Genetic resistance is the best way to manage this disease. Although several different sources of resistance have been identified to date, very few of those have been subjected to genetic analyses. Understanding the genetics of resistance, characterization and mapping of new resistance loci can help in development of improved germplasm. The objective of this study was to identify and characterize resistance loci (QTL) in two independent recombinant inbred lines (RILs) populations utilizing different wheat lines as resistance donors. Elite CIMMYT wheat lines Blouk#1 and Huirivis#1 were used as susceptible female parents and WHEAR/KUKUNA/3/C80.1/3∗BATAVIA//2∗WBLL1 (WKCBW) and Mutus as moderately resistant male parents in Pop1 and Pop2 populations, respectively. Populations were evaluated for KB resistance in 2015-16 and 2016-17 cropping seasons at two seeding dates (total four environments) in Cd. Obregon, Mexico. Two stable QTL from each population were identified in each environment: QKb.cim-2B and QKb.cim-3D (Pop1), QKb.cim-3B1 and QKb.cim-5B2 (Pop2). Other than those four QTL, other QTL were detected in each population which were specific to environments: QKb.cim-5B1, QKb.cim-6A, and QKb.cim-7A (Pop1), QKb.cim-3B2, QKb.cim-4A1, QKb.cim-4A2, QKb.cim-4B, QKb.cim-5A1, QKb.cim-5A2, and QKb.cim-7A2 (Pop2). Among the four stable QTL, all but QKb.cim-3B1 were derived from the resistant parent. QKb.cim-2B and QKb.cim-3D in Pop1 and QKb.cim-3B1 and QKb.cim-5B2 in Pop2 explained 5.0-11.4% and 3.3-7.1% phenotypic variance, respectively. A combination of two stable QTL in each population reduced KB infection by 24-33%, respectively. Transgressive resistant segregants lines derived with resistance alleles from both parents in each population were identified. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers flanking these QTL regions may be amenable to marker-assisted selection. The best lines from both populations (in agronomy, end-use quality and KB resistance) carrying resistance alleles at all identified loci, may be used for inter-crossing and selection of improved germplasm in future. Markers flanking these QTL may assist in selection of such lines.

Characterization of SNP and Structural Variations in the Mitochondrial Genomes of Tilletia indica and Its Closely Related Species Formed Basis for a Simple Diagnostic Assay

Tilletia indica causes the disease Karnal bunt in wheat. The disease is under international quarantine regulations. Comparative mitochondrial (mt) genome analysis of T. indica (KX394364 and DQ993184) and T. walkeri (EF536375) has found 325 to 328 SNPs, 57 to 60 short InDels (from 1 to 13 nt), two InDels (30 and 61 nt) and five (>200 nt) presence/absence variations (PAVs) between the two species. The mt genomes of both species have identical gene order. The numbers of SNPs and InDels between the mt genomes of the two species are approximately nine times of the corresponding numbers between the two T. indica isolates. There are eight SNPs between T. indica and T. walkeri that resulted in amino acid substitutions in the mt genes of cob, nad2 and nad5. In contrast, there is no amino acid substitution in the mt genes of the T. indica isolates from the SNPs found. The five PAVs present in T. indica (DQ993184) are absent in T. walkeri. Four PAVs are more than 1 kb and are not present in every T. indica isolate. Analysis of their presence and absence separates a collection of T. indica isolates into 11 subgroups. Two PAVs have ORFs for the LAGLIDAG endonuclease and two have ORFs for the GIY-YIG endonuclease family, which are representatives of homing endonuclease genes (HEGs). These intron- encoded HEGs confer intron mobility and account for their fluid distribution in T. indica isolates. The small PAV of 221 bp, present in every T. indica isolate and unique to the species, was used as the genetic fingerprint for the successful development of a rapid, highly sensitive and specific loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay. The simple procedure of the LAMP assay and the easy detection formats will enable the assay to be automated for high throughput diagnosis.

A real-time multiplex PCR assay used in the identification of closely related fungal pathogens at the species level

The advent of real-time PCR and new chemistries such as TaqMan™ and SYBR™green has been used in plant pathology to aid in the identification of fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens. These chemistries have provided another tool to be used in the identification of fungal pathogens that are hard to differentiate on the basis of morphology. This work describes an assay that was developed to identify five different species of the pathogen Tilletia that causes smuts and bunts in cereals.

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The current surveillance protocol for Karnal bunt of wheat in most countries, including the USA, European Union (EU), and Australia, involves the tentative identification of the spores based on morphology followed by a molecular analysis. Germination of spores is required for confirmation which incurs a delay of about two weeks, which is highly unsatisfactory in a quarantine situation. A two-step PCR protocol using FRET probes for the direct detection and identification of Tilletia indica from a very few number of spores (< or =10) is presented. The protocol involves amplification of the ITS1 DNA segment in the highly repeated rDNA unit from any Tilletia species, followed by FRET analysis to detect and unequivocably distinguish T. indica and the closely related T. walkeri. This rapid, highly sensitive, fluorescent molecular tool is species-specific, and could supersede the conventional microscopic diagnosis used in a quarantine surveillance protocol for Karnal bunt which is often confounded by overlapping morphological characters of closely related species.

Utilization of Soil Solarization for Eliminating Viable Tilletia indica Teliospores from Arizona Wheat Fields

Studies were conducted in Arizona to determine the efficacy of soil solarization for killing teliospores of the soilborne fungal wheat pathogen Tilletia indica. In a replicated study conducted in each of 3 years, T. indica teliospores and bunted wheat kernels were buried in a Karnal bunt-infested wheat field at depths of 5, 10, and 20 cm. Replicate samples were removed from under a clear plastic solarization cover at 7-day intervals and the number of viable teliospores determined. A rapid decline in teliospore viability occurred at all treatment depths over 38 days, with efficacy comparable with methyl bromide protocols using clear plastic sheeting. Initial viability rates of 43, 71, and 82% germination were reduced to 0.1, 7.7, and 0.2% after 38 days (across all depths) in 2003, 2005, and 2006, respectively. Mean daily maximum soil temperatures at 5 and 20 cm under clear plastic in 2003, 2005, and 2006 were 67, 53 and 60°C and 43, 38, and 43°C, respectively. Under current United States Department of Agriculture disease management strategies, the method may be useful for the rapid deregulation of Karnal bunt-affected fields.

Distribution and Recovery of Tilletia indica Teliospores from Regulated Wheat Fields in Texas

Eight wheat fields from the Karnal bunt-regulated regions within Texas were grid sampled to gain a better understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of teliospores produced by the causal agent, Tilletia indica. Teliospores from 25-g aliquots of soil from each grid point were extracted using a size-selective sieving sucrose-centrifugation procedure. Teliospores were recovered from all eight fields and, in some cases, from every grid point within a field. Total teliospore numbers ranged from 0 to 1,305 per 25 g of soil. Over 70% of the total grid sampled points contained one or more teliospores. The relation between soil chemical and physical characteristics and teliospore numbers from each field was evaluated. In general, no consistent, significant trend could be made between soil factors and teliospore numbers. Geostatistics were used to analyze data from grid points and create contour maps. Teliospore distribution was aggregated in four of the fields, random in three of the fields, and discontinuous (neither random nor aggregated) in a single field. This is the first report of widespread distribution and high teliospore numbers from wheat field soils in the United States.

Rainfall and temperature distinguish between Karnal bunt positive and negative years in wheat fields in Texas

Karnal bunt of wheat, caused by the fungus Tilletia indica, is an internationally regulated disease. Since its first detection in central Texas in 1997, regions in which the disease was detected have been under strict federal quarantine regulations resulting in significant economic losses. A study was conducted to determine the effect of weather factors on incidence of the disease since its first detection in Texas. Weather variables (temperature and rainfall amount and frequency) were collected and used as predictors in discriminant analysis for classifying bunt-positive and -negative fields using incidence data for 1997 and 2000 to 2003 in San Saba County. Rainfall amount and frequency were obtained from radar (Doppler radar) measurements. The three weather variables correctly classified 100% of the cases into bunt-positive or -negative fields during the specific period overlapping the stage of wheat susceptibility (boot to soft dough) in the region. A linear discriminant-function model then was developed for use in classification of new weather variables into the bunt occurrence groups (+ or -). The model was evaluated using weather data for 2004 to 2006 for San Saba area (central Texas), and data for 2001 and 2002 for Olney area (north-central Texas). The model correctly predicted bunt occurrence in all cases except for the year 2004. The model was also evaluated for site-specific prediction of the disease using radar rainfall data and in most cases provided similar results as the regional level evaluation. The humid thermal index (HTI) model (widely used for assessing risk of Karnal bunt) agreed with our model in all cases in the regional level evaluation, including the year 2004 for the San Saba area, except for the Olney area where it incorrectly predicted weather conditions in 2001 as unfavorable. The current model has a potential to be used in a spray advisory program in regulated wheat fields.

The South African National Collection of Fungi: celebrating a centenary 1905-2005

The international acronym PREM denotes the South African National Collection of Fungi, which houses approximately 60 000 specimens. The collection includes material from outside South Africa and contains representatives of all the major groups of fungi excluding the yeasts and pathogens of larger animals and man. The name PREM was derived from the city in which the collection is situated, Pretoria (PRE), and the M defines the collection as being mycological. The background information and historical facts presented in this paper are based on an unpublished manuscript, prepared by the co-author and then head of the collection A.P. Baxter, for the 90(th) celebration of PREM.The collection was established in 1905, when South Africa was still a British colony. The vision and hard work of the earlier scientists associated with it paved the way for the establishment of a number of present-day national research bodies. One of these, the Plant Protection Research Institute, is currently the custodian of the collection. Over time activities at PREM were influenced by socio-economic and political events, and most recently, the South African government's commitment to international biodiversity initiatives. Although the basic goals and needs to maintain PREM remained intact throughout, various phases in terms of research focus can be recognised over the past century. In the early days the emphasis was on collecting and recording of fungi, then pioneering research was done on mycotoxins and later there was an increased demand for public-good services and innovation. Since the 1980's sophisticated molecular techniques have aided in the discovery of true phylogenetic relationships of fungi, a fundamental field of systematics, that was previously impossible to explore by any other means. Against these advances, the value of reference collections is often questioned.New technologies should, however, not be pursued in isolation from other relevant factors. Improvement of agricultural practices, knowledge sharing and the protection and conservation of biota will always be important. Even so, the success and future of natural history collections depends on continued support from governing bodies, appreciation for our biological heritage and on inputs from the scientific community.

Invasion Pathways of Karnal Bunt of Wheat into the United States

Karnal bunt of wheat (caused by Tilletia indica) was first detected in the United States in Arizona in 1996. The seed lots of infected, spring-habit, durum wheat associated with the initial detection were traced to planted fields in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. However, in the summer of 1997, the disease appeared in unrelated, winter-habit, bread wheat located over 700 km from the nearest potentially contaminated wheat from 1996 (and destroyed prior to reinfection). Here, we examined potential invasion pathways of the fungus associated with the movement of wheat into the United States. We analyzed the USDA/APHIS Port Information Network (PIN) database from 1984 through 2000 to determine likely pathways of introduction based on where, when, and how the disease was intercepted coming into the United States. All interceptions were made on wheat transported from Mexico, with the majority (98.8%) being intercepted at land border crossings. Karnal bunt was not intercepted from any other country over the 17-year period analyzed. Most interceptions were on wheat found in automobiles, trucks, and railway cars. The majority of interceptions were made at Laredo, Brownsville, Eagle Pass, and El Paso, TX, and Nogales, AZ. Karnal bunt was intercepted in all 17 years; however, interceptions peaked in 1986 and 1987. Averaged over all years, more interceptions (19.2%) were made in the month of May than in any other month. Our results indicate that Karnal bunt has probably arrived in the United States on many occasions, at least since 1984. Because of the relatively unaggressive nature of the disease and its reliance on rather exacting weather conditions for infection, we surmised that it is possible this disease has a long period of latent survival between initial arrival and becoming a thriving, established disease.

Improved Detection of Tilletia indica Teliospores in Seed or Soil by Elimination of Contaminating Microorganisms with Acidic Electrolyzed Water

Acidic electrolyzed water (AEW) is a germicidal product of electrolysis of a dilute solution (e.g., 0.4% vol/vol) of sodium chloride. This solution can be used to disinfest wheat seed or soil samples being tested for teliospores of Tilletia indica, causal agent of Karnal bunt, without risk of damaging the teliospores. The AEW used in this study had a pH of 2.5 to 2.8 and oxidation-reduction potential of approximately 1,130 mV. In simulations of routine extractions of wheat seed to detect teliospores of T. indica, the effectiveness of a 30-min AEW treatment was compared with a 2-min 0.4% sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) treatment to eradicate bacteria and nonsmut fungi. Each treatment reduced bacterial and fungal populations in wheat seed extracts by 6 to 7 log₁₀ units when determined on 2% water agar with antibiotics. Reductions of 5 log₁₀ units or more were observed on other media. NaOCl and AEW also were very effective at eliminating bacteria and fungi from soil extracts. In studies to detect and quantitate T. indica teliospores in soil, AEW was nearly 100% effective at eliminating all nonsmut organisms. Free chlorine levels in AEW were very low, suggesting that compounds other than those with chlorine play a significant role in sanitation by AEW. The low pH of AEW was shown to contribute substantially to the effectiveness of AEW to reduce microorganisms. A standardized protocol is described for a 30-min AEW treatment of wheat seed washes or soil extracts to eliminate contaminating microorganisms. A significant advantage of the use of AEW over NaOCl is that, with AEW, teliospore germination is not reduced and usually is stimulated, whereas teliospore germination declines after contact with NaOCl. The protocol facilitates detection and enumeration of viable teliospores of T. indica in wheat seed or soil and the isolation of pure cultures for identification by polymerase chain reaction. The germicidal effects of AEW, as demonstrated in this study, illustrate the potential of AEW as an alternative to presently used seed disinfestants.

An Allee Effect Reduces the Invasive Potential of Tilletia indica

ABSTRACT The Karnal bunt pathogen, Tilletia indica, is heterothallic and depends on encounters on wheat spikes between airborne secondary sporidia of different mating types for successful infection and reproduction. This life history characteristic results in reduced reproductive success for lower population densities. Such destabilizing density dependence at low population levels has been described for a range of animals and plants and is often termed an Allee effect. Our objective was to characterize how the Allee effect might reduce the invasive potential of this economically important pathogen. We developed a simple population model of T. indica that incorporates an Allee effect by calculating the probability of infection for different numbers of secondary sporidia in the infection court. An Allee effect is predicted to be important at the frontier of an invasion, for establishment of new foci by a small population of teliospores, and when the environment is nonconducive for the production of secondary sporidia. Using estimated model parameter values, we demonstrated a theoretical threshold population size below which populations of T. indica were predicted to decline rather than increase. This threshold will vary from season to season as a function of weather variables and their effect on the reproductive potential of T. indica. Deployment of partial resistance or use of fungicides may be more useful if they push population levels below this threshold.

Modeling the Risk of Entry, Establishment, Spread, Containment, and Economic Impact of Tilletia indica, the Cause of Karnal Bunt of Wheat, Using an Australian Context

ABSTRACT Modeling techniques were developed to quantify the probability of Tilletia indica entering and establishing in Western Australia (WA), and to simulate spread, containment, and the economic impact of the pathogen. Entry of T. indica is most likely to occur through imports of bulk grain or fertilizer (0.023 +/- 0.017 entries per year and approximately 0.009 +/- 0.009 establishments per year). Entry may also occur through straw goods, new or second-hand agricultural machinery, and on personal effects of travelers who have visited regions with infected plants. The combined probability of entry and establishment of T. indica, for all pathways of entry, is about one entry every 25 years and one establishment every 67 years. Alternatively, sensitivity analysis does show that increases in quarantine funding can reduce the probability of entry to about one entry every 50 years and less than one establishment every 100 years. T. indica is spread efficiently through contaminated farm machinery, seed and soil, rain, air currents, and animals. Depending on the rate of spread of the pathogen and the amount of resources allocated for detection, the time until first detection could range from 4 to 11 years and the economic impact could range from 8 to 24% of the total value of wheat production in WA.