Use of bayesian methods to improve prediction of panicle and shoot blight severity of pistachio in california

Understanding the Process of Latent Infection of Canker-Causing Pathogens in Stone Fruit and Nut Crops in California

The Botryosphaeriaceae family is considered a fungal family that includes pathogens causing latent infection of woody plants, and a number of species were identified as causal pathogens of canker and shoot blight diseases. To better understand the process of latent infection of major canker-causing pathogens in woody tissues in different tree crops important in California, shoot and bud samples were randomly collected from four tree crops: almond, dried plum, pistachio, and walnut. The previously developed DNA primers and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assay systems were applied to detect six canker-causing pathogen groups, including Botryosphaeria dothidea, and species of Cytospora, Diplodia, Lasiodiplodia, Neofusicoccum, and Phomopsis. The concepts of molecular severity (MS) and latent infection index (LII) were introduced and applied to quantify the latent infection levels for these samples. Variation in incidence of latent infection among pathogen groups was observed, whereas the incidences were relatively low among species of Phomopsis and Diplodia. High incidences of Cytospora spp. were observed in two dried plum (prune) orchards. Most orchards showed high incidences of B. dothidea and Lasiodiplodia spp. and moderate incidences of Neofusicoccum spp. Variations in MS were observed among samples of the studied orchards, ranging from 4 to 8. The overall results of LII demonstrated that species of Diplodia and Phomopsis were less important in population development of canker-causing pathogens at the latent phase. Lasiodiplodia spp. were the most aggressive and had been well developed in populations among the studied tree crops. Cytospora spp. became predominant in two of the three dried plum orchards, whereas B. dothidea and Neofusicoccum spp. showed trends of increase in incidence across various tree crops. This study also demonstrated the usefulness of this sensitive qPCR approach in providing evidence of the latent phase of major canker-causing pathogens of stone fruit and nut crops at an early stage of latent infection in woody plant tissues.

Ecology and Epidemiology of Diseases of Nut Crops and Olives Caused by Botryosphaeriaceae Fungi in California and Spain

In recent decades, the cultivated area and production of nuts and olives have increased, driven by an increasing consumer interest in healthier food. Diseases of almond, pistachio, olive, and walnut crops caused by species belonging to the Botryosphaeriaceae family have caused concern worldwide. Although considerable progress has been made in elucidating the etiology of these diseases, scientific knowledge of other aspects of these diseases is more limited. In this article, we present an overview of the most important diseases caused by Botryosphaeriaceae fungi affecting almond, pistachio, olive, and walnut crops by focusing on ecology and epidemiology, primarily in California and Spain.

Development of qPCR systems to quantify shoot infections by canker-causing pathogens in stone fruits and nut crops

AIMS

To develop real-time PCR assays for quantification of shoot infection levels of canker disease of stone fruits and nut crops caused by six fungal pathogen groups.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study focused on six major canker-causing fungal pathogen groups: Phomopsis sp., Botryosphaeria dothidea, Lasiodiplodia sp., Cytospora sp., Neofusicoccum sp. and Diplodia sp., occurring in stone fruits and nut crops in California. DNA primers were designed to specifically target each of the six pathogen groups after the specificity tests using canker-causing and non-canker-causing pathogens and by using DNA sequences of other species from GenBank using blast. The quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) systems were developed and used to quantify the infection levels of inoculated dried plum shoots.

CONCLUSIONS

For Neofusicoccum sp. and Phomopsis sp., which were used in inoculation of walnut shoots, the values of the molecular severity ranged from 5·60 to 6·94 during the 16 days of latent infection period. The qPCR assays were more efficient, accurate and precise to quantify latent infections caused by canker-causing pathogens as compared to the traditional plating methods.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

This study demonstrated the potential of using the developed qPCR systems for epidemiological studies on canker diseases of woody plants.

Landscape-scale disease risk quantification and prediction

The study of plant disease epidemics at a landscape scale can be extended to allow for predictions about disease occurrence at this scale. Examined within the context of the disease triangle, systems developed to incorporate information primarily about the pathogen and conditions conducive to the infection process. Parametric methods can be used to relate environmental conditions to disease, and specifically relate environment to the inoculum production, the resulting infection process, or both. Aspects relating to the presence or absence of the host plant within the landscape, or patterns of the host within the landscape, are much rarer in disease prediction, although analyses incorporating these factors have been conducted. Predictive systems at the landscape scale may concentrate only on the conditions for infection or possible migratory paths of pathogen propagules. Incorporation of all components of the disease triangle may be one way to improve these systems.

Estimation of leaf wetness duration requirements of foliar fungal pathogens with uncertain data-an application to Mycosphaerella nawae

Wetness of the host surface is a critical environmental factor for the development of foliar fungal diseases, but it is difficult to estimate the wetness durations required by pathogens for infection when only few experimental data are available. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate wetness duration requirements of foliar fungal pathogens when precise experimental data are not available. The proposed method is based on approximate Bayesian computation. It only requires lower and upper bounds of wetness duration requirements for one or fewer temperatures. We describe the method, show how to apply it to an infection model, and then present a case study on Mycosphaerella nawae, the causal agent of circular leaf spot of persimmon. In this example, the parameters of a simple infection model were estimated using experimental data found in the literature for the pathogen, and the model was applied to assess the risk in a Spanish area recently affected by the disease. The results showed that the probability of successful infection was higher than 0.5 for 32% of the on-site wetness durations recorded in the affected area. Results obtained with simulated data showed that our method was able to improve the estimation of wetness duration requirement. Given the flexibility of the proposed method, we expect it to become adopted for assessing the risk of introduction of exotic fungal plant pathogens.

Risk factors for crop health under global change and agricultural shifts: a framework of analyses using rice in tropical and subtropical Asia as a model

Plant disease epidemiology requires expansion of its current methodological and theoretical underpinnings in order to produce full contributions to global food security and global changes. Here, we outline a framework which we applied to farmers' field survey data set on rice diseases in the tropical and subtropical lowlands of Asia. Crop health risks arise from individual diseases, as well as their combinations in syndromes. Four key drivers of agricultural change were examined: labor, water, fertilizer, and land availability that translate into crop establishment method, water shortage, fertilizer input, and fallow period duration, respectively, as well as their combinations in production situations. Various statistical approaches, within a hierarchical structure, proceeding from higher levels of hierarchy (production situations and disease syndromes) to lower ones (individual components of production situations and individual diseases) were used. These analyses showed that (i) production situations, as wholes, represent very large risk factors (positive or negative) for occurrence of disease syndromes; (ii) production situations are strong risk factors for individual diseases; (iii) drivers of agricultural change represent strong risk factors of disease syndromes; and (iv) drivers of change, taken individually, represent small but significant risk factors for individual diseases. The latter analysis indicates that different diseases are positively or negatively associated with shifts in these drivers. We also report scenario analyses, in which drivers of agricultural change are varied in response to possible climate and global changes, generating predictions of shifts in rice health risks. The overall set of analyses emphasizes the need for large-scale ground data to define research priorities for plant protection in rapidly evolving contexts. They illustrate how a structured theoretical framework can be used to analyze emergent features of agronomic and socioecological systems. We suggest that the concept of "disease syndrome" can be borrowed in botanical epidemiology from public health to emphasize a holistic view of disease in shifting production situations in combination with the conventional, individual disease-centered perspective.

Evaluation of Two Disease Warning Systems for Botryosphaeria Panicle and Shoot Blight of California Pistachio and Efficient Control Based on Early-Season Sprays

Two empirical models to predict infection events were evaluated for control of Botryosphaeria panicle and shoot blight, caused by a Fusicoccum sp., as well as the effectiveness of early-season fungicide sprays on the control of this disease of pistachio. A model incorporating wetness duration was superior to one based solely on duration of rains ≥1 mm/h for ≥4 h and with temperature ≥11°C. The wetness duration threshold (W) for rain events ≥4 mm at a given temperature (T) for high-risk infection events was W = -7.8 + 397/T and the threshold for medium-risk events was W = -6.9 + 220/T. Wet periods interrupted by ≤12 h were added together to calculate W. In two orchards with high levels of inoculum, one high-risk event resulted in 20 to 23% blighted fruit at harvest and two or three high-risk events resulted in 31 to 80% blighted fruit. Latent infections were 0 to 1% in instances where only low-risk events (one to two events) occurred prior to collection of pistachio fruit for determination of latent infections and were 17 to 36% with one to three high-risk events. Early-season fungicide sprays in April to May effectively controlled panicle and shoot blight when applied up to 12 days before predicted infection events or 5 days after.

An Evidence-Based Approach to Plum Pox Virus Detection by DASI-ELISA and RT-PCR in Dormant Period

An evidence-based approach, such as those developed in clinical and veterinary medicine, was applied to the detection of Plum pox virus (PPV) during the dormant period. A standardized methodology was used for the calculation of parameters of the operational capacity of DASI-ELISA and RT-PCR in wintertime. These methods are routinely handled to test the sanitary status of plants in national or international trading and in those cases concerning export-import of plant materials. Diagnosis often has to be performed during the dormant period, when plant material is commercialized. Some guidelines to interpret diagnostic results of wintertime are provided in an attempt to minimize risks associated with the methods and over-reliance on the binary outcome of a single assay. In order to evaluate if a complementary test increased the confidence of PPV diagnosis when discordant results between DASI-ELISA and RT-PCR are obtained, NASBA-FH also was included. Likelihood ratios of each method were estimated based on the sensitivity and specificity obtained in wintertime. Subsequently, a Bayesian approach was performed to calculate post-test probability of PPV infection in spring. Results of evidence-based approach show that different PPV prevalences require different screening tests. Thus, at very low PPV prevalence levels DASI-ELISA should be used as the election method, whilst at the highest PPV prevalence levels RT-PCR should be performed. NASBA-FH could be used at medium prevalences to clarify discordances between DASI-ELISA and RT-PCR.