Survival and prognostic indicators in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis after onset of hepatic decompensation

Early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with chronic hepatitis B in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Aim: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seven screening strategies for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients in China. Methods: A discrete event simulation model combining a decision tree and Markov structure was developed to simulate a CHB cohort aged ≥40 years on a lifetime horizon and evaluate the costs and health outcomes (quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] gained) of ultrasonography (US), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II), AFP+US, AFP+PIVKA-II, GAAD (a diagnostic algorithm based on gender and age combined with results of AFP and PIVKA-II) and GAAD+US. Epidemiologic, clinical performance, utility and cost data were obtained from the literature, expert interviews and real-world data. Uncertainties on key parameters were explored through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA). Results: Compared with other strategies, GAAD+US detected the most HCC patients at early stage, and GAAD was the screening strategy with the lowest average cost per HCC case diagnosed. Using 3× China's 2022 GDP per capita ($38,233.34) as the threshold, the three strategies of US, GAAD and GAAD+US formed a cost-effectiveness frontier. Screening with US, GAAD, or GAAD+US was associated with costs of $6110.46, $7622.05 and $8636.32, and QALYs of 13.18, 13.48 and 13.52, respectively. The ICER of GAAD over US was $4993.39/QALY and the ICER of GAAD+US over GAAD was $26,691.45/QALY, which was less than 3× GDP per capita. Both DSA and PSA proved the stability of the results. Conclusion: GAAD+US was the most cost-effective strategy for early HCC diagnosis among CHB patients which could be considered as the liver cancer screening scheme for the high-risk population in China.

Treat All versus targeted strategies to select HBV-infected people for antiviral therapy in The Gambia, west Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Global elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) requires expanded uptake of antiviral therapy, potentially by simplifying testing algorithms, especially in resource-limited countries. We evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of three strategies that determine eligibility for anti-HBV treatment, as compared with the WHO 2015 treatment eligibility criteria, in The Gambia.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of natural history using data from the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa programme (known as PROLIFICA) in The Gambia, for an HBV-infected cohort of individuals aged 20 years. The algorithms included in the model were a conventional strategy using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017 criteria, a simplified algorithm using hepatitis B e antigen and alanine aminotransferase (the Treatment Eligibility in Africa for the Hepatitis B Virus [TREAT-B] score), a Treat All approach for all HBV-infected individuals, and the WHO 2015 criteria. Outcomes to measure effectiveness were disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life saved (YLS), which were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with the WHO 2015 criteria as the base-case scenario. Costs were assessed from a modified social perspective. A budget impact analysis was also done. We tested the robustness of results with a range of sensitiviy analyses including probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

FINDINGS

Compared with the WHO criteria, TREAT-B resulted in 4877 DALYs averted and Treat All resulted in 9352 DALYs averted, whereas the EASL criteria led to an excess of 795 DALYs. TREAT-B was cost-saving, whereas the ICER for Treat All (US$2149 per DALY averted) was higher than the cost-effectiveness threshold for The Gambia (0·5 times the country's gross domestic product per capita: $352). These patterns did not change when YLS was the outcome. In a modelled cohort of 5000 adults (aged 20 years) with chronic HBV infection from The Gambia, the 5-year budget impact was $1·14 million for Treat All, $0·66 million for TREAT-B, $1·03 million for the WHO criteria, and $1·16 million for the EASL criteria. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that among the Treat All, EASL, and TREAT-B algorithms, Treat All would become the most preferred strategy only with a willingness-to-pay threshold exceeding approximately $72 000 per DALY averted or $110 000 per YLS.

INTERPRETATION

Although the Treat All strategy might be the most effective, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in The Gambia. A simplified strategy such as TREAT-B might be a cost-saving alternative.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council).

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis B virus vaccination and transmission among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Cost-Effectiveness of Testing for NS5A Resistance to Optimize Treatment of Elbasvir/Grazoprevir for Chronic Hepatitis C in China

Objectives: Baseline presence of nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) resistance-associated variants can attenuate the efficacy of new direct-acting antivirals. A potential method to attain the higher efficacy would be to screen for NS5A polymorphisms prior to the initiation of therapy and to adjust the treatment length based on the test results. However, baseline testing adds additional costs and it is unclear whether this would represent a high value strategy for chronic hepatitis C in China.

Methods: A hybrid model compared 1) standard 12-weeks treatment (no testing), 2) shortened 8-weeks treatment (no testing), and 3) baseline testing with 12-/8-weeks treatment for those with/without NS5A polymorphisms from a lifetime Chinese health care payer perspective. All model inputs were retrieved from clinical trials and publically available literature. And sensitivity analyses were also conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty.

Results: Baseline testing was associated with overall increase in total health care cost of USD 13.50 and in QALYs of 0.002 compared with standard 12-weeks treatment (no testing), yielded in an ICER of USD 6750/QALY gained. Scenario analyses suggested that shortened 8-weeks treatment (no testing) was found to be lower costs and great QALYs compared with other two strategies when the sustained virologic response (SVR) rate increased to 95%. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were robust.

Conclusions: Our results suggest prior assessment of NS5A sensitivity followed by optimizing treatment duration was an economic strategy. In addition, shortened 8-weeks treatment (no testing) was shown to be dominant with the SVR rate increased to 95%.

Impact of modern antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis B and C on clinical outcomes of liver disease

Chronic infections with the hepatitis B and C viruses have significant worldwide health and economic impacts. Previous treatments for hepatitis C such as interferon and ribavirin therapy were ineffective and poorly tolerated by patients. The introduction of directly acting curative antiviral therapy for hepatitis C and the wider use of nucleos(t)ide analogues for suppression of chronic Hepatitis B infection have resulted in many positive developments. Decreasing the prevalence of hepatitis B and C have concurrently reduced transmission rates and hence, the number of new infections. Antiviral treatments have decreased the rates of liver decompensation and as a result, lowered hospitalisation and mortality rates for both chronic hepatitis B and C infection. The quality of life of chronically infected patients has also been improved significantly by modern treatment. Antiviral therapy has stopped the progression of liver disease to cirrhosis in certain patient cohorts and prevented ongoing hepatocellular damage in patients with existing cirrhosis. Longer term benefits of antiviral therapy include a reduced risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma and decreased number of patients requiring liver transplantation. This review article assesses the literature and summarises the impact of modern antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis B and C on clinical outcomes from liver disease.

Cost-effectiveness of new antiviral treatments for non-genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection in China: a societal perspective

Objective

This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) among patients with non-genotype 1 for the eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in China.

Methods

A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate the lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for DAAs and pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PEG-RBV) from a societal perspective. The model inputs were derived from the literature, a patient survey, HCV expert opinions and a specialised drug price database available in China. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the model robustness and calculate reasonable prices of DAAs.

Results

For patients infected with HCV genotype 2, the pan-genotypic regimen sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) was the most cost-effective strategy compared with PEG-RBV, with an ICER of US$5653/QALY. For genotype 3, the combination of sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir (SOF-DCV) was the most cost-effective approach, with an ICER of US$3314/QALY. All DAA regimens for genotype 6 were cost-saving, and sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (SOF-RBV) was the optimal regimen. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ICERs were most sensitive to the utility values, discount rate and drug costs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that using a threshold equal to one time the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in China (US$9769/QALY, 2018), the probability of SOF/VEL, SOF-DCV and SOF-RBV being cost-effective was 58%, 83% and 71% for genotype 2, 3 and 6, respectively. Threshold analysis showed that the price of DAAs should be reduced by some degree to achieve better affordability.

Conclusions

DAAs were cost-effective compared with traditional treatments. A reasonable reduction in the price of DAAs will increase drug affordability and is of great significance as a global strategy to eradicate viral hepatitis.

Ending risk-group HBV vaccination for MSM after the introduction of universal infant HBV vaccination: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Risk-group HBV vaccination for men who have sex with men (MSM) was introduced in the Netherlands in 2002, followed by universal infant vaccination in 2011, that will enable termination of risk-group vaccination over time. The introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention might result in increased HBV testing and vaccination against HBV. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the transition from risk-group to universal HBV vaccination, accounting for improvements in HBV testing and treatment, as well as the introduction of PrEP.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model for HBV transmission among MSM. Universal vaccination was modelled by assigning some MSM (5-15% in 2028 increasing to 80-90% in 2033 and thereafter) to be vaccinated when they become sexually active. We investigated different scenarios assuming 0.5% extra vaccination rate and 0.5% extra testing rate due to PrEP consultations; and 5% of HIV-negative MSM on PrEP, that will reduce the probability of HBV acquisition by 88%.

RESULTS

Universal vaccination resulted in a reduction of 24% (interquartile range; 22-25%) of the total number of HBV infections among MSM estimated to occur from 2020 to 2070. With universal vaccination, terminating risk-group vaccination in 2030 or 2040 resulted in 30% or 10% more HBV infections over 2020-2070, respectively, compared to continuation of risk-group vaccination until 2070. With PrEP and continued risk-group vaccination, the total number of HBV infections over 2020-2070 was reduced by 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal HBV vaccination can lead to a major reduction in HBV incidence among MSM in the future. The reduction becomes smaller when ending risk-group HBV vaccination, but larger by PrEP use for HIV prevention. Efforts to keep high levels of HBV vaccination, testing, and treatment have to be continued in the coming decades in order to eliminate HBV as a health threat for MSM.

Clinical Features and Outcomes of Repeated Endoscopic Therapy for Esophagogastric Variceal Hemorrhage in Cirrhotic Patients: Ten-Year Real-World Analysis

Objective

This study is aimed at evaluating the survival of cirrhotic patients with different etiologies after endoscopic therapy for acute variceal bleeding and the effect of repeated endotherapy on patients' prognosis.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated the clinical features and outcomes between cirrhotic patients with chronic HBV or HCV infections and other etiologies. The 3-year and 5-year survival rates and rehemorrhage rate in one year between the viral and nonviral cirrhosis patients were compared by Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank test. Cox analysis was used to identify the impact factors that affect the long-term survival of patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endotherapy.

Results

Out of 2665 patients with liver cirrhosis and variceal hemorrhage selected from our medical center between September 2008 and December 2017, a total of 1342 patients were included for analysis. The median follow-up duration was 32.9 months (range 0.16-111.4 months), the 3- and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 75.3% and 52.8%, respectively. The median survival time was significantly longer in viral cirrhosis patients (47.1 months [95% CI: 24.9-69.1]) compared with nonviral cirrhosis patients (37.0 months [95% CI: 25.0-56.0], p = 0.001). The 3-year and 5-year survival rates of the viral group were higher than the nonviral group. The rehemorrhage rate at one year was higher in nonviral patients than in viral patients (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Repeated endotherapy combined with effective antiviral therapy is helpful for long-term survival of cirrhotic population with variceal hemorrhage and HBV or HCV infection.

Cost-effectiveness of preventing hepatitis B virus reactivation in patients with lymphoma and resolved HBV infection

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation may occur in >10% of patients with lymphoma and resolved HBV infection who undergo rituximab-containing chemotherapy. Preventive strategies may have marked impact on resource allocation in HBV endemic areas. This study aims to compare the cost-effectiveness between prophylactic antiviral therapy and HBV DNA monitoring for the prevention of HBV-related complications.

METHODS

Data sources are studies of HBV-related events and survival for patients with lymphoma and resolved HBV infection published since 2006. Decision tree analysis was used to compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of preventing HBV-related death or liver decompensation for patients who undergo first-line rituximab-containing chemotherapy. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the impact of the preventive efficacy, the duration of prophylactic antiviral therapy, and the cost of different interventions. The direct medical cost was derived from the database of the NHI Administration, Taiwan. The time frame of our analysis was set to 3 years after the completion of chemotherapy.

RESULTS

The median ICER of prophylactic antiviral therapy, according to current practice guidelines, ranged between USD 150,000 and 250,000 if we apply the guidelines generally. When a long-course (12 months after completion of chemotherapy according to clinical guidelines) prophylactic therapy was assumed, Option A was cheaper and more effective only in the anti-HBs-negative subgroup (median ICER US$149,932 vs. US$161,526, p = 0.013).

CONCLUSION

Identification of anti-HBs-negative subgroups is critical to improve the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic antiviral therapy in lymphoma patients with resolved HBV infection.

Albumin and Spinal Epidural Abscess: Derivation and Validation in Two Independent Data Sets

BACKGROUND

None of the existing prognostic scoring systems for spinal epidural abscess (SEA) include albumin despite albumin's established role in inflammation, nutrition, lipid peroxidation, and regulation of apoptosis. The purpose of the present study was to determine the prognostic value of albumin in SEA.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, case-control study of 2 independent data sets: patients with SEA in an institutional population and patients in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). Bivariate analyses and multivariate analyses were used to determine whether albumin is an independent prognostic factor for survival in both data sets.

RESULTS

For the 1053 patients with SEA in the institutional cohort, the 90-day postdischarge mortality was 134 (12.7%). Overall, 633 (60.1%) underwent surgery in the initial admission, with a 30-day postoperative mortality rate of 5.5% (n = 35). For the 1154 patients with SEA in the NSQIP database, the 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 3.6% (n = 42). The rate of 90-day postdischarge mortality in the institutional cohort for patients with albumin <2.3 g/dL was 25.1%. In contrast, the rate for patients with albumin >3.3 g/dL was 4.5%. On multivariate analysis of the NSQIP database, hypoalbuminemia was an independent prognostic factor for 30-day postoperative mortality. On multivariate analysis of the institutional cohort, hypoalbuminemia remained a prognostic factor for 90-day postdischarge mortality.

CONCLUSION

Albumin was validated as an independent prognostic factor in patients with SEA. The lack of this marker in existing scoring systems underscores the need for updated models to optimize risk stratification and shared decision-making before surgery.

Long term outcome of antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis B associated decompensated cirrhosis

AIM

To investigate survival rate and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis in the antiviral era.

METHODS

We used the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment. Korea’s health insurance system is a public single-payer system. The study population consisted of 286871 patients who were prescribed hepatitis B antiviral therapy for the first time between 2007 and 2014 in accordance with the insurance guidelines. Overall, 48365 antiviral treatment-naïve patients treated between 2008 and 2009 were included, and each had a follow-up period ≥ 5 years. Data were analyzed for the 1^st decompensated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and treatment-naïve patients (n = 7166).

RESULTS

The mean patient age was 43.5 years. The annual mortality rates were 2.4%-19.1%, and 5-year cumulative mortality rate was 32.6% in 1^st decompensated CHB treatment-naïve subjects. But the annual mortality rates sharply decreased to 3.4% (2.4%-4.9%, 2-5 year) after one year of antiviral treatment. Incidence of HCC at first year was 14.3%, the annual incidence of HCC decreased to 2.5% (1.8%-3.7%, 2-5 year) after one year. 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 24.1%. Recurrence rate of decompensated event was 46.9% at first year, but the annual incidence of second decompensation events in decompensated CHB treatment-naïve patients was 3.4% (2.1%-5.4%, 2-5 year) after one year antiviral treatment. 5-year cumulative recurrence rate of decompensated events was 60.6%. Meanwhile, 5-year cumulative mortality rate was 3.1%, and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 11.5% in compensated CHB treatment-naïve patients.

CONCLUSION

Long term outcome of decompensated cirrhosis treated with antiviral agent improved much, and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality sharply decreased after one year treatment.

Nomogram for cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis

The aim of this retrospective study was to establish a simple self-assessed scale for individual risk of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B. A total of 1808 consecutive patients were enrolled and analyzed. According to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, a simple nomogram was calculated for cirrhosis. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated to compare the diagnostic accuracy of nomogram with aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis index based on the four factors (FIB-4), and S index. The AUROCs of nomogram for cirrhosis were 0.807 (adjusted AUROC 0.876) in model group and 0.794 (adjusted AUROC0.866) in validation group. DeLong's test and Brier Score further demonstrated that nomogram was superior to APRI, FIB-4 and S index in both model group and validation group. The patients with nomogram <0.07 could be defined as low risk group with cirrhosis prevalence lower than 4.3% (17/397). The patients with nomogram >0.52 could be defined as high risk group with cirrhosis prevalence higher than 73.0% (119/163). In conclusion, as a self-assessed style, simple, non-invasive, economical, convenient, and repeatable scale, nomogram is suitable to serve as a massive health screening tool for cirrhosis in CHB patients and further external validation is needed.

Cost-Effectiveness Comparison Between the Response-Guided Therapies and Monotherapies of Nucleos(t)ide Analogues for Chronic Hepatitis B Patients in China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) monotherapies are typically used as the primary treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, including lamivudine (LAM), telbivudine (TBV), adefovir (ADV), entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir (TDF). For high-resistance NAs (LAM, TBV, ADV), they can generate excellent clinical outcomes by using response-guided therapy; however, their pharmacoeconomic profiles remain unclear in China. We aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness between response-guided therapies and monotherapies of NAs for Chinese hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg)-positive and -negative CHB patients.

METHODS

We constructed a Markov model to simulate CHB progression associated with 12 treatment strategies using effectiveness and cost data from the published literature. We measured the lifetime costs, quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way sensitivity (especially to extend the range of the TDF price) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore the uncertainties of the model.

RESULTS

For both HBeAg-positive and -negative patients, no treatment strategy generated the lowest lifetime costs (US$31,185-US$31,338) and QALYs (7.54-7.58). ETV and TDF monotherapies were not dominated by other treatments, whereas, the ICER of ETV monotherapy was the lowest (US$6112/QALY-US$8533/QALY). For each high-resistance NA, compared with its monotherapy, the ICERs of its response-guided therapies were below the willingness-to-pay threshold of US$22,833/QALY. Additionally, TDF monotherapy was the preferred treatment when its price dropped to US$1820/year or lower.

CONCLUSION

Among 12 treatment strategies evaluated, ETV monotherapy is the most cost-effective treatment for treatment-naive CHB patients in China. The response-guided therapies of high-resistance NAs are more cost-effective than their monotherapies.

Estimating cost-effectiveness associated with all-oral regimen for chronic hepatitis C in China

Background

All-oral regimens are associated with higher effectiveness and shorter treatment duration for chronic hepatitis C. Given its superior effect and enormous patients in China, clinicians or patients may be compelled to consider delaying treatment for all-oral regimen.

Objective

To estimate cost-effectiveness of delaying treatment for all-oral regimen in the subsequent years under different assumptions about their price and efficacy compared with standard of care in China.

Methods

A state-transition Markov model was developed to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net monetary benefit (NB) were calculated. And sensitivity analyses were also performed to assess the impact of uncertainty.

Results

For treatment naive patients with Genotype 1, immediate treatment with all-oral regimen under assumed cost and efficacy at present was cost-effective compared with peginterferon α-2a (PegIFN) regimen at present with an ICER of $12536 per QALY gained and a positive NB of $6832 at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $21209. And it was more than 95% likely to be cost-effective if weekly drug cost was less than $1000. Moreover, patients delaying treatment for all-oral regimen in the 1^st year were associated with increase in QALYs of 0.62 and increase in cost of $10114 compared with initiating PegIFN regimen at present, which resulted in a positive NB of $3115.

Conclusion

From a payer perspective, all-oral regimen is associated with good long-term health and economic benefit for treatment-naive patients infected with HCV genotype 1. Particularly, if all-oral regimen would become available at lower price in the future, delaying treatment for all-oral regimen may be a good choice for patients in China.

Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Liver Decompensation

The goal in patients with immune active hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is to significantly suppress viral replication and prevent progression of fibrosis to cirrhosis and liver decompensation and decrease the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma. This is achievable by the highly active antivirals, entecavir and tenofovir, which are considered first-line therapy in most patients with immune active hepatitis C virus and after liver transplantation to prevent HBV recurrence. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis should be referred for liver transplantation and treated with first-line antivirals as early as possible, with the goal of achieving complete viral suppression in the shortest time possible.

Subclinical Ascites Does Not Affect the Long-term Prognosis in Hepatitis B Virus-related Cirrhosis Patients Receiving Antivirals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study evaluated the clinical significance of subclinical ascites in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis treated with lamivudine (LMV) or entecavir (ETV).

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study involved 8 hospitals. Patients were classified by degree of ascites: (1) no ascites (no ascites on imaging, no diuretics), (2) subclinical ascites (small amount of ascites on imaging, no diuretics), and (3) clinical ascites (moderate to severe ascites or diuretics).

RESULTS

Out of 501 patients, 336 (68%), 51 (10%), and 114 (23%) patients were classified as no-ascites, subclinical ascites, and clinical ascites, respectively. In all, 100 (20%) and 401 (80%) were treated with LMV and ETV, respectively. Over 58±24 months of follow-up, 105 patients (21%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma. The cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ between LMV-treated and ETV-treated patients (P=0.61); it was higher in the clinical-ascites group than the no-ascites (P=0.054) and subclinical-ascites (P=0.03) groups, but it was comparable between the latter 2 (P=0.225). Forty-five patients (9%) died during follow-up. Survival was significantly shorter in the clinical-ascites group than the other 2 (both P<0.005), but it was comparable between no-ascites and subclinical-ascites groups (P=0.444). Multivariate analysis showed that mortality was significantly associated with prothrombin time [hazard ratio (HR)=2.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.59-3.70], serum albumin (HR=0.54; 95% CI, 0.29-0.99), and presence of clinical ascites (HR=3.58; 95% CI, 1.54-8.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical ascites did not affect prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis receiving antiviral treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based screening and treatment for chronic hepatitis B in The Gambia: an economic modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the high burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in sub-Saharan Africa, absence of widespread screening and poor access to treatment leads to most people remaining undiagnosed until later stages of disease when prognosis is poor and treatment options are limited. We examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based screening and early treatment with antiviral therapy for HBV in The Gambia.

METHODS

In this economic evaluation, we combined a decision tree with a Markov state transition model to compare a screen and treat intervention consisting of adult community-based screening using a hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) rapid test and subsequent HBV antiviral therapy versus current practice, in which there is an absence of publicly provided screening or treatment for HBV. We used data from the PROLIFICA study to parameterise epidemiological, primary screening, and cost information, and other model parameter inputs were obtained from a literature search. Outcome measures were cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted; cost per life-year saved; and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) between current practice and the screen and treat intervention. Costs were assessed from a health provider perspective. Costs (expressed in 2013 US$) and health outcomes were discounted at 3% per year.

FINDINGS

In The Gambia, where the prevalence of HBsAg is 8·8% in people older than 30 years, adult screening and treatment for HBV has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $540 per DALY averted, $645 per life-year saved, and $511 per QALY gained, compared with current practice. These ICERs are in line with willingness-to-pay levels of one times the country's gross domestic product per capita ($487) per DALY averted, and remain robust over a wide range of epidemiological and cost parameter inputs.

INTERPRETATION

Adult community-based screening and treatment for HBV in The Gambia is likely to be a cost-effective intervention. Higher cost-effectiveness might be achievable with targeted facility-based screening, price reductions of drugs and diagnostics, and integration of HBV screening with other public health interventions.

FUNDING

European Commission.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for treatment of chronic hepatitis B in China

BACKGROUND

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is newly available for treatment of chronic hepatitis B patients in China. To date, no study has been conducted to examine the cost-effectiveness of this treatment. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of TDF versus four oral nucleos(t)ide analogs [lamivudine (LAM), adefovir (ADV), telbivudine (LdT), and entecavir (ETV)] and from a pharmacoeconomic perspective to assess current drug pricing for TDF.

METHODS

Based on Chinese healthcare perspectives, a Markov model was applied to simulate the lifetime (40-year time span) costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for five different monotherapy strategies. Two kinds of rescue combination strategies (base-case: LAM + ADV then ETV + ADV; alternative: directly using ETV + ADV) were separately considered for treatment of patients refractory to monotherapy. Model parameters (including disease transition, cost, and utility) were obtained from previous Chinese population studies. Both branded and generic drugs were separately analyzed. Study model uncertainties were assessed by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Two-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore uncertainties between efficacy and price of TDF.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, the lowest lifetime cost and the best cost-effectiveness ratio were obtained by ETV, which was considered the reference treatment. LAM, ADV, and LdT treatments had significantly greater costs and lower efficacies. Compared to ETV, TDF was more effective but also more expensive. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of TDF versus ETV were much higher than the willing-to-pay threshold of $20,466 US dollars (USD) per QALY gained (3 × gross domestic product per capita of China, 2014). TDF would be the most cost-effective strategy if the annual cost did not exceed $2260 USD and $1600 USD for branded and generic drugs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

For Chinese chronic hepatitis B patients, ETV is still the most cost-effective strategy over TDF and other nucleos(t)ide analogs, with a threshold of $20,466 USD/QALY gained.

Cost-effectiveness comparison of lamivudine plus adefovir combination treatment and nucleos(t)ide analog monotherapies in Chinese chronic hepatitis B patients

BACKGROUND/AIM

Lamivudine (LAM) plus adefovir (ADV) combination therapy is clinically efficacious for treating chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients in China, but no pharmacoeconomic evaluations of this strategy are available. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of LAM plus ADV combination treatment compared with five other nucleos(t)ide analog monotherapies (LAM, ADV, telbivudine [TBV], entecavir [ETV], and tenofovir [TDF]).

METHODS

To simulate the lifetime (40-year time span) costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for different therapy options, a Markov model that included five initial monotherapies and LAM plus ADV combination as an initial treatment was developed. Two kinds of rescue combination strategies (base-case: LAM + ADV then ETV + ADV; alternative: direct use of ETV + ADV) were considered separately for treating patients refractory to initial therapy. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore model uncertainties.

RESULTS

In base-case analysis, ETV had the lowest lifetime cost and served as the reference therapy. Compared to the reference, LAM, ADV, and TBV had higher costs and lower efficacy, and were completely dominated by ETV. LAM plus ADV combination therapy or TDF was more efficacious than ETV, but also more expensive. Although the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of combination therapy or TDF were both higher than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $20,466/QALY gained for the reference treatment, in an alternative scenario analysis LAM plus ADV combination therapy would be the preferable treatment option.

CONCLUSION

ETV and LAM plus ADV combination therapy are both cost-effective strategies for treating Chinese CHB patients.

Cytokine levels contribute to the pathogenesis of minimal hepatic encephalopathy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma via STAT3 activation

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were grouped according to the degree of encephalopathy, with healthy volunteers as controls. We investigated clinical presentation, protein and mRNA expression of 14 cytokines, and activation of six STAT proteins, the downstream signaling mediators. Levels of all 14 cytokines were significantly elevated in HCC patients with clinical hepatic encephalopathy. Statistical analysis showed that levels of IL-1β, IL-6, IFNγ, IL-17α, IFNλ2 and IFNλ3 were correlated with minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE). Multivariate regression analysis identified serum IL-6, IFNλ3 and IL-17α as independent risk factors for MHE. Increased mRNA levels of IL-6 and IFNγ were associated with MHE. Among the STAT proteins examined, only STAT3 was elevated in MHE. Treatment with a STAT3 inhibitor protected neurons from cytokine-induced apoptosis in vitro. In conclusion, this study identified potential biomarkers for MHE in HCC. The cytokines investigated may induce neural apoptosis via STAT3 in the pathogenesis of MHE in HCC.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of antiviral therapies for hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B patients in China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Several antiviral therapies are now available for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but the most cost-effective strategy for Chinese patients is unclear. The aim of this study was to estimate the long-term cost effectiveness of the antiviral treatments (lamivudine, adefovir, telbivudine and entecavir) for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive CHB patients in China.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to simulate the life-time (41-year time span) costs and effectiveness associated with antiviral treatments from the perspective of Chinese healthcare. Relative model parameters were derived from Chinese population studies. Costs and effectiveness were discounted at 5 %. The highest retail prices for generic and branded drug prices were also considered. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis were used to explore model uncertainties.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, the least quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained with adefovir as the reference strategy. Lamivudine generated the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with an additional US$35,000 needed to gain one additional QALY for generic drugs and US$36,000 for branded drugs. Entecavir had the lowest ICER of US$7,600 and US$9,100, respectively. The projected 10-year cumulative incidences of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality for entecavir were lower than the other strategies. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, entecavir was the preferred option at a threshold of US$18,924 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HBeAg-positive CHB in China, entecavir is a cost-effective option compared with other therapies for CHB.

Rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B and the role of surveillance: a 10-year follow-up of 673 patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are critical milestones in the natural history of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. There are no prospective data on the risk of these critical milestones in HBV patients in Singapore. The efficacy and justification of HCC surveillance is determined by the rate of HCC development. Our study aims to determine the rates of cirrhosis and HCC in HBV patients in Singapore and hence the appropriateness of HCC surveillance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 673 HBV patients were enrolled between March 2003 and March 2004 and followed up for 10 years with regular surveillance for HCC using α-fetoprotein and abdominal ultrasound.

RESULTS

Overall, 62.6% of the patients were men, mean age 56.4 years. In all, 31% were hepatitis B e antigen-positive and 14.9% had cirrhosis at baseline. Seventy-four patients developed cirrhosis and 42 patients developed HCC after 10 years. The overall 10-year incidence of cirrhosis and HCC was 16.2% (1.6%/year) and 7.8% (0.8%/year), respectively. The overall incidence of HCC in cirrhotics was 29.7% (3.0%/year), highest within a year of diagnosis of cirrhosis (7.9%). The rate of cirrhosis was significantly higher in those aged more than 55 years (P=0.001). Sex and hepatitis B e antigen status did not affect the rate of cirrhosis. Factors with significantly higher overall rates of HCC were age 55 years or more (P=0.001), male sex (P=0.001), and baseline α-fetoprotein of 4.1 µg/l or more (P<0.0001). However, age more than 55 years was not significant in the development of HCC in cirrhotics.

CONCLUSION

The rate of cirrhosis in HBV patients in Singapore is about 1.6% per year. The rate of HCC is about 0.8% per year overall and 3.0% per year in cirrhotics, which justifies HCC surveillance.

Interferon gamma, interleukin-6, and -17a levels were correlated with minimal hepatic encephalopathy in HBV patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Cytokines have been reported to be involved in the cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy (HE). Many aspects on the correlation between minimal HE (MHE) and cytokine levels were still unclear.

METHODS

Two hundred eighty-nine HBV-infected cirrhotic patients were grouped: non MHE (n = 156), MHE (n = 98) and clinical HE (CHE, n = 213). Another 88 healthy volunteers were included as controls. Clinical and laboratory findings and levels of ten serum cytokines were analyzed.

RESULTS

All tested cytokines were significantly elevated in cirrhotic patients and patients with CHE compared with controls. Statistical analysis showed only IL-6, IFNγ and IL-17a were correlated MHE (all three p < 0.001). Multivariate regression analysis indicated that serum IL-6 and IL-17a levels were independent risk factors for MHE. Moreover, all patients with MHE had IL-17a levels higher than 49 pg/mL, whereas those without MHE had IL-17a levels lower than 49 pg/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

IL-6, IFNγ, and IL-17a were correlated with MHE in HBV-infected patients. Two independent risk factors (IL-6, IL-17a) for MHE were identified. Our findings pointed out the crucial roles of cytokines in MHE in HBV-infected patients.

The impact of vaccination and antiviral therapy on hepatitis B and hepatitis D epidemiology

The major cause of liver cancer around the globe is hepatitis B virus (HBV), which also contributes to a large number of deaths due to liver failure alone. Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is as potentially alarming as HBV since life threatening cases are 10 times more likely with HBV-HDV dual infection compared to HBV monoinfection. So far, there is no established effective treatment against HDV and the only preventive action suggested by the World Health Organization is to introduce HBV vaccination for children immediately after birth (newborns) and thus reduce the available pool for HDV infection. Here the main objective is to understand the complex dynamics of HBV-HDV infection in a human population that can inform public health policy makers on the level of different preventive measures required to eliminate HBV and HDV infections. Model simulations suggest that HBV vertical transmission and HBV vaccination rates for newborns are instrumental in determining HBV and HDV prevalence. A decrease in HBV prevalence is observed as vaccination coverage increases and it is possible to eradicate both HBV and HDV using high vaccination coverage of ≥80% in the long term. We further found that HDV presence results in lower HBV prevalence. An application of our model to China revealed that vaccinating every newborn in China will further prevent 1.69 million new infections by 2028 as compared to the current 90% vaccination coverage. Although, higher vaccination coverage of newborns should eliminate both HBV and HDV over a long time period, any short term strategy to eradicate HDV must include additional preventive measures such as HBV adult vaccination. Implementation of HBV adult vaccination programs at a rate of 10% per year over 15 years will further prevent 39 thousand new HDV infections in China by 2028 as compared to HBV vaccination programs solely for newborns.

Regression of fibrosis after HBV antiviral therapy. Is cirrhosis reversible?

Long-lasting HBV-DNA suppression is considered to be the best surrogate end-point of antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) related chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis, and it is a prerequisite to prevent liver-related complications and improve survival. Treatment with oral antiviral drugs in patients with HBV cirrhosis is effective in restoring liver function and improving survival even in those with decompensated cirrhosis. These agents are generally well-tolerated for long-term treatment, and several evidences have demonstrated that they are able to reverse liver fibrosis and prevent the occurrence of HCC.

1 and 5 year survival estimates for people with cirrhosis of the liver in England, 1998-2009: a large population study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Large, population-based studies that have included the full spectrum of cirrhosis estimating survival, taking into account time-at-risk are lacking. We aimed to report 1- and 5-year average survival rates for people with cirrhosis to be used in a clinical and healthcare policy setting.

METHODS

We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked English Hospital Episode Statistics to identify adult cases of cirrhosis from January 1998 to December 2009. We estimated 1- and 5-year survival according to whether time-at-risk was ambulatory or followed an emergency hospital admission related to liver disease, stratified by age, sex, and aetiology to be used in a clinical setting. We used a multivariate Cox-proportional hazards model with a time-varying variable, adjusted for Baveno IV stage of cirrhosis at diagnosis, age, aetiology, and sex.

RESULTS

We identified 5118 incident cases. Average survival probabilities at 1- and 5-years were 0.84 (95% CI 0.83-0.86) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.68) for the ambulatory group and 0.55 (95% CI 0.53-0.57) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.29-0.33) following hospitalisation, respectively. A hospital admission at diagnosis or subsequently for liver disease substantially impaired prognosis independent of stage of cirrhosis (HR=2.78, 95% CI 2.53, 3.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency hospitalisation for liver disease heralds a downturn in a patient's outlook independent of their stage of cirrhosis. Our results provide population-based clinically translatable estimates of prognosis for the purposes of healthcare delivery and planning and communication to patients.

Predictors of survival in hepatitis B virus related decompensated cirrhosis on tenofovir therapy: an Indian perspective

Decompensated cirrhosis has low survival rate compared to compensated state. Effective viral suppression due to antiviral therapy (tenofovir) has been shown to slow disease progression and may delay the burden of liver transplantation. We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of various prognostic indicators in predicting the 24-months survival in HBV related decompensated cirrhosis after tenofovir therapy and to evaluate the post-treatment outcome. Ninety-six HBV related decompensated patients on antiviral (tenofovir) therapy were prospectively studied for 24months survival and mortality. Cutoff levels for several prognostic indicators were generated by ROC. Prediction of overall probability of mortality was also calculated. The overall probability of survival observed at 12months was 0.947 whereas at 24months it was found to be 0.833. According to Cox proportional hazards model, the univariate analysis revealed cutoff of >7.4logcopies/ml for HBV DNA, >1.2mg/dl for serum creatinine, >3.7mg/dl for total bilirubin, ⩽0.75 for platelets count, >10 for CTP and >20 for MELD as predictors of poor survival. Multivariate analysis showed MELD score of >20 was the most robust predictor of mortality, with 58 times higher risk (HR: 58.73, p<0.001). Post-treatment response with tenofovir for 24months significantly improved the hepatic functions and reverses decompensation and showed incredible efficacy in improvement of hepatic functional status with reduced viremia in a great majority of decompensated cirrhosis subjects having high MELD and HBV DNA level.

Economic evaluation of universal newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of universal newborn hepatitis B vaccination in China, an area of high endemicity.

METHOD

A decision tree was used to describe perinatal hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission, early infection and impact of vaccination. A Markov model based on 1-year cycles was used to simulate these impacts for the lifetime of a cohort of 10,000,000 infants born in 2002 in China. We compared both cost and health outcomes for two strategies: universal newborn vaccination comprising a timely birth dose (HepB1) with a three-dose vaccination (HepB3) compared with no vaccination. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulations were performed to test parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Over the cohort's lifetime, 79,966 chronic infections, 37,553 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 130,796 HBV related deaths would be prevented by universal infant vaccination. The prevalence of HBV infection is reduced by 76%. Over 743,000 life-years and 620,000 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) would be gained and there would be monetary benefits of more than 1 billion US dollars in medical care costs and lost productivity avoided.

CONCLUSION

The newborn vaccination programme for Hepatitis B in China both gains QALYs and saves medical care costs. It is important to ensure that timely and comprehensive vaccination programmes continue.

Prognosis of hepatitis B-related liver cirrhosis in the era of oral nucleos(t)ide analog antiviral agents

BACKGROUND AND AIM

We investigated long-term outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis in the era of oral nucleos(t)ide analog antiviral agents.

METHODS

Between January 1999 and February 2009, a total of 240 consecutive patients who had HBV-related cirrhosis without malignancy were treated with lamivudine and second line nucleos(t)ide analogs. The group of historical controls consisted of 481 consecutive patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who were managed without any antiviral treatment prior to 1999.

RESULTS

In 78% of the patients who received antiviral treatment, sustained viral suppression (serum HBV DNA < 10(5) copies/mL) was achieved during a mean follow-up period of 46 months. The occurrences of death, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were less frequent in the treated cohort than in untreated historical controls, with the 5-year cumulative incidences being 19.4% versus 43.9% (log-rank P < 0.001), 15.4% versus 45.4% (P = 0.001), and 13.8% versus 23.4% (P = 0.074), respectively. For patients who received antiviral treatment, suboptimal viral suppression (HBV DNA > 10(5) copies/mL at last follow-up) was an important independent risk factor of death (P < 0.001) and hepatic decompensation (P = 0.019), and was linked to an increased risk of HCC (P = 0.042). Although the Child-Pugh grade remained a useful prognostic factor, no significant differences were found between patients with Child-Pugh grade B and C cirrhosis at the beginning of antiviral treatment (P = 0.656).

CONCLUSIONS

Oral antiviral agents have improved the prognosis of patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and affected the prognostic values of factors constituting the Child-Pugh system, necessitating a more efficient prognostic system.

Hepatitis B virus-related decompensated liver cirrhosis: benefits of antiviral therapy

Following development of liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B, liver disease may continue to progress and decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may occur, especially in those with active viral replication. Decompensation may manifest with jaundice, ascites, variceal bleeding or hepatic encephalopathy. Earlier studies have shown that the prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis is usually poor with a 5-year survival rate at 14-35% under conventional standard of care. The approval of oral antiviral agents has greatly improved the prognosis, as demonstrated in several cohort studies and randomized clinical trials involving therapy with lamivudine, adefovir dipivoxil, entecavir, telbivudine, or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. Oral antiviral agents are effective in restoring liver function and improving survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis especially if therapy is initiated early enough. These agents are generally well tolerated without significant side effects. However, their preventive effect in HCC development has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Given their known resistance profiles, entecavir and tenofovir should be considered as the first-line therapy for patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

Cost-effectiveness of universal hepatitis B virus screening in patients beginning chemotherapy for solid tumors

PURPOSE

Universal screening for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection before chemotherapy has been recommended. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HBV screening before chemotherapy given for nonhematopoietic solid tumors (STs).

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of universal screening conducted per professional guidelines versus no screening in hypothetical patient cohorts beginning adjuvant chemotherapy for early breast cancer or palliative chemotherapy for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Survival times were extrapolated using Markov models. Probabilities were derived from published studies and costs estimated from the perspective of the Australian health care system. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed, including with the application of an alternative HBV screening strategy.

RESULTS

Using an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio threshold of $50,000 (Australian dollars) per life-year (LY) saved, universal HBV screening was not cost-effective for adjuvant patients ($88,224/LY, 13% probability of being cost-effective), palliative patients ($1,344,251/LY, 0%), or pooled (all) patients ($149,857/LY, 1%). Sensitivity analyses found that screening approached cost-effectiveness among adjuvant patients with the highest reported rates of undiagnosed chronic HBV (65%, $59,445/LY) or HBV reactivation with chemotherapy (41%, $56,537/LY). Cost- effectiveness was also significantly influenced by HBV population prevalence. An alternative screening strategy using hepatitis B surface antigen testing only produced the most economically favorable results, with $30,126/LY (80% probability) for adjuvant patients and $51,201/LY (43%) for the pooled cohort.

CONCLUSION

Universal HBV screening conducted per current guidelines is not cost-effective in patients with STs. Screening may be economically favorable in selected patient subpopulations and/or with simplification of the screening strategy.

Natural course following the onset of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B: a long-term follow-up study

PURPOSE

To elucidate the long-term natural course following the onset of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

Ninety-three patients with chronic hepatitis B who had developed cirrhosis during regular follow-up were included in this long-term follow-up study. At the time of cirrhosis detection, 30% of the patients were seropositive for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and 73% had a HBV-DNA level >10(4) copies/ml. Follow-up studies included liver biochemistry, viral markers, alpha-fetoprotein and ultrasonography every 3-6 months.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 102 +/- 60 (12-246; median 97) months, 32 patients (34.4%) experienced 55 episodes of hepatitis flare (7.0%/year), 15 (53.6%) of 28 HBeAg-positive patients seroconverted to anti-HBe (6.3%/yr) and 12 (12.9%) lost HBsAg (1.5%/year). Overall disease progression was observed in 25 (26.9%, 3.2%/year) patients: 12 (12.9%, 1.5%/year) hepatic decompensation, 21 (22.6%, 2.7%/year) hepatocellular carcinoma and 11 (11.8%, 1.4%/year) died. Multivariate analysis showed that age at onset of cirrhosis (P = 0.015) and persistent HBeAg seropositivity (P = 0.019) were the independent factors for overall disease progression.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that patients with older age at onset of cirrhosis and persistent HBeAg seropositivity following the onset of cirrhosis were independent factors for the disease progression in the first 10-year after the development of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Treatment of hepatitis B in decompensated liver cirrhosis

Chronic hepatitis B infection progresses from an asymptomatic persistently infected state to chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. About 3% of patients with chronic hepatitis develop cirrhosis yearly, and about 5% of individuals with hepatitis B cirrhosis become decompensated annually. The outcome for patients with decompensated cirrhosis is bleak. Lamivudine, the first oral antiviral agent available for hepatitis B treatment is safe and effective and can improve or stabilize liver disease in patients with advanced cirrhosis and viraemia. Viral resistance restricts its prolonged use. Entecavir and tenofovir are newer agents with excellent resistance profile to date. These and some other antiviral agents are being investigated for optimal use in this rather challenging patient group.

Correlation of the expression of toll-like receptors in monocyte-derived dendritic cells with prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis B

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to measure the expression of toll-like receptors (TLR) in monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MoDC) from chronic severe hepatitis B (CSHB), to assess the contribution of TLRs in CSHB.

METHODS

Peripheral blood was collected from 40 CSHB patients, 30 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, and 30 healthy individuals who served as healthy controls (HCs). Purified monocytes were isolated by a combination of Histopaque-1.077 and CD14 Microbeads. MoDCs were induced with granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor and interleukin-4 for 6 days from CD14(+) monocytes. The expression of TLRs in MoDC was measured using real-time PCR and flow cytometry.

RESULTS

The expressions of TLR-1, -2, -7 were significantly higher in MoDC of CSHB than that of HCs, of which the level of TLR-3 was decreased. Particularly in CSHB patients, the TLR-3 expression was further decreased compared to CHB patients. In non-survival CSHB patients, TLR-3 level was significantly decreased, while TLR-2 expression was dramatically increased. Linear correlation analysis demonstrated significant correlations between TLR-3 level and disease severity markers (total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, creatinine, white blood cell count, and maximum volume of ascitic fluid) in individual CSHB patients.

CONCLUSIONS

TLR-2 and TLR-3 may be involved in the pathogenesis of CSHB, and TLR-3 may influence the prognosis of CSHB.

Antiviral therapy for hepatitis B in special populations

There has been much progress in antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B; however, antiviral therapy for hepatitis B in special populations is still very challenging. Here, we review antiviral therapy for hepatitis B in special populations, including children and pregnant patients, patients with hepatitis-B-related cirrhosis, patients with acute hepatitis B and chronic hepatitis B surface antigen carriers who receive immunosuppressive or cytotoxic therapy. Major advances have been made in antiviral therapy for hepatitis B in these special populations because of recent increasing availability of oral nucleoside/nucleotide analogues that are well-tolerated and highly effective; however, the findings are mostly based on small uncontrolled short-term studies. More well-designed clinical studies on antiviral therapy for hepatitis B in these special populations are urgently needed to obtain more evidence-based high-quality data.

Course of disease and survival after onset of decompensation in hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Data regarding the outcome of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis after the onset of decompensation is scanty.

METHOD

From January 1998 to December 2008, a retrospective-prospective inception cohort study involving HBV-related decompensated cirrhotics was performed. Predictors of death and clinical events after the onset of decompensation were evaluated. Patients with co-infection with hepatitis C virus and/or human immunodeficiency virus, alcohol consumption to any degree and diabetes diagnosed before the detection of liver disease were excluded.

RESULT AND ANALYSIS

Two hundred and fifty-three patients (231 males, 139 e-negative), including 102 untreated patients, were analysed. The mean (+/-SD) age was 43.0 (+/-12.0) years. The mean (+/-SD) follow-up period was 47 (+/-47) months. Decompensation was the first presentation of liver disease in 210 (83%) patients. Ascites (70%) and variceal bleed (28%) were predominant modes of decompensation. Forty-three (17%) patients died (22 vs 14% in untreated and treated cohort, respectively; P=0.002). Type 2 hepato-renal syndrome was the commonest cause of death (32%). Survival was independent of e-antigen status. In the total cohorts, predictors of death were occurrence of sepsis with systemic inflammatory response (SIRS), ascites as the initial mode of decompensation, absence of antiviral therapy and events of high-grade hepatic encephalopathy [hazards ratios (HR) of 4.4, 3.6, 2.2 and 1.7 respectively]. In the untreated cohort, initial decompensation with ascites and development of sepsis with SIRS were independent predictors of death (HR 8.5 and 2.3 respectively), while 5-year survival was higher in patients having initial decompensation with variceal bleed vs ascites (29 vs 16%, respectively, P=0.002).

CONCLUSION

Decompensation with ascites and sepsis with SIRS predict reduced survival. Antiviral therapy beyond 6 months improves outcome.

Extrapyramidal signs predict the development of overt hepatic encephalopathy in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The long-term evolution of cirrhotic patients with extrapyramidal signs has not yet been studied. We have investigated the influence of extrapyramidal signs on the prognosis, evolution, and quality of life of patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

Forty-six patients with cirrhosis were followed up and 18 of them were reevaluated, a mean of 45 months later. Cognitive impairment was measured with psychometric tests (Trail-Making Test part A, Grooved-Pegboard, Block-Design, Oral Symbol Digit and Stroop Test). Extrapyramidal signs were evaluated using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Health-related quality of life was measured using the SF-36 scale and the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire.

RESULTS

Eleven of the 46 patients who were followed up developed overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) during the follow-up. The presence of extrapyramidal signs was the unique factor that predicted overt HE and patients with basal higher score in the part 3 of the UPDRS developed overt HE more frequently [hazard ratio=1.29; 95% confidence interval (1.04-1.60) P=0.023]. In the 18 reevaluated patients, there was an increase in the score of the UPDRS part 3 after follow-up. There was a worsening in the score values of the block design and the Number Connection Test. In health-related quality of life scales, patients scored better in the area of mental health of the SF-36 scale. Patients with extrapyramidal signs persisted with worse scores in several items of the SF-36 scale and the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire.

CONCLUSION

The presence of extrapyramidal signs in patients with liver cirrhosis predicts the development of overt HE. These signs increased along the follow-up, and remain a bad influence on quality of life.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a two-stage screening intervention for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been the leading cause of cancer death in Taiwan since the 1980s. A two-stage screening intervention was introduced in 1996 and has been implemented in a limited number of hospitals. The present study assessed the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of screening intervention, from the perspective of the Taiwanese government. The cost-effectiveness analysis aimed to assist informed decision making by the health authority in Taiwan.

METHODS

A two-phase economic model, 1-year decision analysis and a 60-year Markov simulation, was developed to conceptualize the screening intervention within current practice, and was compared with opportunistic screening alone. Incremental analyses were conducted to compare the incremental costs and outcomes associated with the introduction of the intervention. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the uncertainties that surrounded the model.

RESULTS

The Markov model simulation demonstrated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NT$498,000 (US$15,600) per life-year saved, with a 5% discount rate. An ICER of NT$402,000 (US$12,600) per quality-adjusted life-year was achieved by applying utility weights. Sensitivity analysis showed that excess mortality reduction of HCC by screening and HCC incidence rates were the most influential factors on the ICERs. Scenario analysis also indicated that expansion of the HCC screening intervention by focusing on regular monitoring of the high-risk individuals could achieve a more favorable result.

CONCLUSION

Screening the population of high-risk individuals for HCC with the two-stage screening intervention in Taiwan is considered potentially cost-effective compared with opportunistic screening in the target population of an HCC endemic area.

Ascites and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: an Asian perspective

Ascites is the most common complication of liver cirrhosis, and it develops as a consequence of portal hypertension and splanchnic vasodilatation. Depending on severity, management of ascites consists of diverse strategy, including dietary sodium restriction, diuretic therapy, repeated large-volume paracentesis with albumin infusion, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and liver transplantation. Recently, advances in medical therapy have been made with satavaptan, a V2 receptor antagonist, vasoconstrictors, such as clonidine, midodrine, or terlipressin, and other categories of drugs, including docarpamine and Chinese herbs. These drugs may serve as useful adjuncts to conventional diuretics in the management of ascites. Besides ascites itself, serious complications, such as spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and hepatorenal syndrome, frequently ensue in decompensated cirrhosis. SBP develops from the translocation of bacteria from the intestine, and successful management with early diagnosis and treatment with proper prevention in patients of high risk is necessary. In summary, ascites is a starting point for more serious complications in liver cirrhosis. Although liver transplantation is the fundamental treatment, it is not always feasible, and consequently various means of treatment should be used. Further study, particularly in Asia where hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis is predominant, is warranted to improve the clinical outcome.

The model for end-stage liver disease score is the best prognostic factor in human immunodeficiency virus 1-infected patients with end-stage liver disease: a prospective cohort study

End-stage liver disease (ESLD) has become the main cause of mortality in patients coinfected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus or hepatitis C virus in developed countries. The aim of this study was to describe the natural history of and prognostic factors for ESLD, with particular attention paid to features affecting liver transplantation. This was a prospective cohort study in 2 Spanish community-based hospitals performed between 1999 and 2004. One hundred four consecutive patients with cirrhosis and a first clinical decompensation of their chronic liver disease or hepatocellular carcinoma were included in the study. During a median follow-up of 10 months (endpoint: death, liver transplantation, or the last checkup date), 61 patients (59%) died. The probability of mortality (Kaplan-Meier method) at 1, 2, and 3 years was 43% [95% confidence interval (CI), 34%-60%], 59% (95% CI, 48%-70%), and 70% (95% Cl, 59%-81%), respectively. In a multivariate analysis, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and the inability to reach an undetectable plasma HIV-1 RNA viral load at any time during follow-up were the only variables independently associated with the risk of death (P < 0.001). Fifteen (14%) of the 104 patients were accepted for liver transplantation, although only 5 underwent the procedure, and 10 died while on the waiting list. The waiting list mortality rate in patients with a MELD score < 20 and in patients with a MELD score >20 was 58% and 100%, respectively (median follow-up, 5 months). In conclusion, HIV-1-infected patients with ESLD, especially those with poorly controlled HIV and a high MELD score, have a poor short-term outcome. The MELD score may be useful in deciding whether to indicate liver transplantation in these patients. However, because only a small proportion of the patients in this study were considered candidates for liver transplantation and most died while on the waiting list, few received a transplant.

Severe acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B: a unique presentation of a common disease

Severe acute exacerbation is a unique presentation of chronic hepatitis B characterized by very high alanine aminotransferase level accompanied by jaundice and hepatic decompensation. The underlying pathogenesis is likely related to excessive immune clearance, which may be related to the genotype of hepatitis B virus. The mortality is very high once hepatic encephalopathy develops, but some patients can recover to almost normal liver function in contrast to patients with end-stage liver cirrhosis. This condition should be differentiated from acute hepatitis B and other causes of acute hepatitis must be excluded. Conventional prognostic systems may not be applicable to severe acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B. In general, patients who have thrombocytopenia, hyperbilirubinemia and coagulopathy have a higher risk of mortality regardless of the serum alanine aminotransferase levels. There is no evidence that lamivudine treatment can reduce the short-term mortality of severe acute exacerbation. However, patients with severe acute exacerbation tend to have a higher rate of maintained virological response, higher rate of hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion and low rate of drug resistance on extended lamivudine treatment as compared to other chronic hepatitis B patients. Virological relapse and severe hepatitis reactivation is common after treatment cessation and therefore long-term antiviral treatment is recommended. Liver transplantation, particularly living donor liver transplantation, should be considered for patients who develop hepatic failure secondary to severe acute exacerbation.

Factors associated with progression to hepatocellular carcinoma and to death from liver complications in patients with HBsAg-positive cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatitis B viral markers and liver tests were used as predictors for development of hepatocellular carcinoma and progression to end-stage liver disease in 128 cirrhosis patients with hepatitis B.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 63.5 months, 28 patients (21.9%) developed HCC and 36 (28.1%) died from non-HCC liver deaths. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors of HCC development and their hazard ratios were high alfa-fetoprotein (HR2.83, 95% CI 1.60-5.00, P = 0.0003), negative HBeAg (HR2.33, 95% CI 1.04-5.29, P = 0.04), and low alanine aminotransferase value (HR1.42, 95% CI 1.08-1.89, P = 0.02). Independent predictors of non-HCC liver deaths were HBeAg positivity (HR3.39, 95% CI 1.16-9.93, P = 0.02), decrease albumin (HR1.61, 95% CI 0.99-2.63, P = 0.05), decrease platelet count (HR2.54, 95% CI 1.03-6.25, P = 0.04), high ALT value (HR1.22, 95% CI 1.03-1.43, P = 0.02), and onset of encephalopathy (HR3.34, 95% CI 1.21-9.27, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

HBeAg negativity, elevated AFP, and low ALT values predicted HCC development, while HBeAg positivity, abnormal liver tests, and low platelet counts identified patients with non-HCC liver deaths.

IL-6 and IL-18 in blood may discriminate cirrhotic patients with and without minimal hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with liver cirrhosis may present minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) that can be unveiled using specific neuropsychologic examination. Evaluation of MHE in cirrhotic patients might have prognostic value. The psychometric HE score (PHES) has been recommended as the "gold standard" in the diagnosis of MHE. It has been proposed that critical flicker frequency (CFF) analysis would be useful for easier detection of MHE. It would also be useful to have some peripheral parameter that could reflect the presence of MHE. It has been recently proposed that inflammation-associated alterations and hyperammonemia may cooperate in the induction of hepatic encephalopathy. The aim of the present work was to assess whether there is a correlation between the alterations in parameters reflecting inflammation, hyperammonemia, and the presence of MHE.

METHODS

We have studied in 55 patients with liver cirrhosis and 26 controls the performance in the PHES battery and the CFF, ammonia, and some interleukins (ILs) as inflammatory markers.

RESULTS

IL-6 and IL-18 were significantly higher (2.5-fold and 2.2-fold, respectively) in patients with MHE than in those without MHE. There were significant correlations between IL-6 or IL-18 levels and PHES score and CFF. Moreover, all patients with MHE had IL-6 levels higher than 11 ng/mL, whereas all patients without MHE had IL-6 levels lower than 11 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Inflammatory alterations related with IL-6 and IL-18 may contribute to MHE. Serum concentration of IL-6 and IL-18 may be useful to discriminate cirrhotic patients with and without MHE.

Evaluation of model for end stage liver disease (MELD)-based systems as prognostic index for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The Cancer of Liver Italian Program (CLIP) and Japan Integrated Scoring System (JIS) used the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to evaluate the liver function.

AIM

We aimed to evaluate the performance of Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) based CLIP and JIS to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with HCC who presented to our Hepatoma Clinic from January 2003 to April 2005 were studied. MELD-based CLIP and JIS were generated by replacing the original CTP score with MELD score at three categories (<10, 10-14 and >14).

RESULTS

Among 471 HCC patients (85.1% males; aged 58.8 +/- 12.2 years), 73% had chronic hepatitis B, 37.4% had >1 nodule, 84.1% had tumor size >2 cm, 55.0% had Child's B cirrhosis, 12.7% underwent tumor resection and 20.6% received locoregional therapy. The cumulative survival at 3 and 6 months were 67% and 55%, respectively. For 3-month survival, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of MELD-CLIP (0.69) and MELD-JIS (0.69) were superior to the original systems (0.64, P = 0.004 and 0.64, P = 0.0018, respectively). For 6-month survival, AUC of MELD-CLIP (0.64) and MELD-JIS (0.62) were also superior to the original systems (0.54, P = 0.003 and 0.59, P = 0.002, respectively). The MELD-based systems performed best among patients who received locoregional therapy to HCC. Advanced cirrhosis (hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, ascites, coagulopathy and elevated creatinine), and cancer (portal vein thrombosis, elevated alpha-fetoprotein, large and multiple tumors) were associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-based systems performed better than Child-Pugh based systems as prognostic indexes for HCC.

Quantitative multivoxel 1H MR spectroscopy of the brain in children with acute liver failure

Acute liver failure (ALF)-related encephalopathy was previously characterized by MR spectroscopy of single voxels containing both grey and white matter brain tissue. Quantitative multivoxel MRS was used here to compare grey and white matter brain tissue concentrations of glutamate/glutamine (Glx) and lactate in ALF and associate the results with other liver function parameters. Five pediatric patients with ALF-related encephalopathy and five controls, examined after successful liver transplantation, were examined by brain MRI/MRS. ALF patients had higher Glx and lactate concentrations in brain white matter than controls (Glx + 125%: P < 0.01; lactate + 33%, P < 0.05) and higher Glx in grey matter (Glx + 125%: P < 0.01). Within the group of ALF patients positive correlations were found between grey or white matter lactate concentration and serum ammonia (P < 0.05), and negative correlations between grey or white matter Glx and venous pH (P < 0.001). This is the first study presenting evidence of high Glx levels in both white and grey matter brain tissue in ALF-related encephalopathy. The elevations in CNS Glx and lactate concentrations appear to relate to hepatic detoxification (ammonia, venous pH), rather than to liver parenchymal integrity (aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase) or biliary cholestasis (bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, alkaline phosphatase).

The long-term effects of lamivudine treatment in patients with HBeAg-negative liver cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

In hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis, patients with HBV replication show a higher mortality rate than those without. We aimed to investigate the long-term effects of lamivudine on HBV DNA suppression, Child-Pugh score, and survival in patients with hepatitis Be antigen (HBeAg)-negative liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

Sixty-eight patients (51 male, 17 female) diagnosed with HBV-positive liver cirrhosis, who were monitored by the hepatology and liver transplantation outpatient clinics of our hospital between June 1999 and May 2007, were included in the study. Lamivudine (100 mg/day) was administered orally. Follow-up visits were scheduled monthly during the first 3 months, and every 3 months thereafter. Complete blood count, haemostasis, biochemistry (aspartate aminotransferase [AST], alanine aminotransferase [ALT], amylase, urea, creatinine, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, total protein, albumin), and alpha-foetoprotein were recorded every 3 months. HBV DNA levels, abdominal ultrasound and the Child-Pugh score were evaluated every 6 months.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight patients (mean age, 52.05+/-12.6 years) were monitored for 49.51+/-18.51 months. Basal ALT, HBV DNA levels and Child-Pugh scores were 103.9+/-73.9 IU/ml, 4133+/-121,94 IU/ml, and 7.6+/-2.4, respectively. The ALT normalisation was 59.7% during the first year, 68.2% during the second year and 44.4% during the fifth year. There was a significant decrease in Child-Pugh scores in the first 3 follow-up years when compared with the baseline score (P<0.05). During the treatment, HBV DNA positivity and YMDD mutations were determined in 20 of 68 (29.4%) patients at 46+/-17.9 months. Nine patients (13.2%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma at 44.8+/-21.5 months. Thirteen patients (19.1%) died during the treatment due to liver failure or variceal bleeding.

CONCLUSION

Lamivudine is beneficial in patients with HBeAg-negative liver cirrhosis in terms of improvement in liver function and enhancement of survival and quality of life. An HBV DNA suppressive effect and improvement in Child-Pugh score were seen especially in the first years. It is important to be aware of YMDD mutation early, as addition of new antivirals is necessary to overcome unwanted results of the mutation.

High viral load and hepatitis B virus subgenotype ce are associated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

We aimed to investigate the impact of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and HBV genotypes/subgenotypes on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A prospective cohort of patients infected with chronic HBV in a surveillance program for HCC since 1997 was studied. Ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein evaluation were regularly performed to detect HCC. Risk factors for HCC and the relationship between HBV DNA and HBV genotypes were determined.

RESULTS

Among 1,006 patients with a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 86 patients (8.5%) developed HCC. With reference to the low HBV DNA stratum (log HBV DNA </= 4.5 copies/mL), the hazard ratio for HCC of the intermediate HBV DNA stratum (log HBV DNA > 4.5 to 6.5 copies/mL) was 1.62 (95% CI, 1.05 to 2.48; P = .027) and that of the high HBV DNA stratum (log HBV DNA > 6.5 copies/mL) was 2.73 (95% CI, 1.76 to 4.25; P < .001). Among patients with genotyping results, 330 patients had HBV genotype B and 439 patients had HBV genotype C (94 subgenotype Ce and 345 subgenotype Cs). With reference to HBV genotype B, HBV subgenotype Ce has the highest risk of HCC (hazard ratio = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.66 to 4.56; P < .0001) and HBV subgenotype Cs has intermediate risk (hazard ratio = 1.70; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.64; P = .020). On multivariate analysis, HBV DNA, HBV genotypes, liver cirrhosis, male sex, older age, and lower serum albumin were independent risk factors of HCC.

CONCLUSION

High HBV DNA level and HBV genotype C, particularly subgenotype Ce, increased the risk of HCC in chronic hepatitis B.