Comparison of the declines in CD4 counts in HIV-1-seropositive female sex workers and women from the general population in Nairobi, Kenya

HIV Disease Progression Among Antiretroviral Therapy Patients in Zimbabwe: A Multistate Markov Model

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) impact has prolonged survival of people living with HIV. We evaluated HIV disease progression among ART patients using routinely collected patient-level data between 2004 and 2017 in Zimbabwe. Methods: We partitioned HIV disease progression into four transient CD4 cell counts states: state 1 (CD4 ≥ 500 cells/μl), state 2 (350 cells/μl ≤ CD4 < 500 cells/μl), state 3 (200 cells/μl ≤ CD4 < 350 cells/μl), state 4 (CD4 < 200 cells/μl), and the absorbing state death (state 5). We proposed a semiparametric time-homogenous multistate Markov model to estimate bidirectional transition rates. Covariate effects (age, gender, ART initiation period, and health facility level) on the transition rates were assessed. Results: We analyzed 204,289 clinic visits by 63,422 patients. There were 24,325 (38.4%) patients in state 4 (CD4 < 200) at ART initiation, and 7,995 (12.6%) deaths occurred by December 2017. The overall mortality rate was 3.9 per 100 person-years. The highest mortality rate of 5.7 per 100 person-years (4,541 deaths) was from state 4 (CD4 < 200) compared to other states. Mortality rates decreased with increase in time since ART initiation. Health facility type was the strongest predictor for immune recovery. Provincial or central hospital patients showed a diminishing dose-response effect on immune recovery by state from a hazard ratio (HR) of 8.30 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 6.64-10.36] (state 4 to 3) to HR of 3.12 (95% CI, 2.54-4.36) (state 2 to 1) compared to primary healthcare facilities. Immune system for male patients was more likely to deteriorate, and they had a 32% increased mortality risk (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.42) compared to female patients. Elderly patients (45+ years) were more likely to immune deteriorate compared to 25-34 years age group: HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.18-1.54; HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.34-1.81 and HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.32-1.79 for states 1 to 2, state 2 to 3, and states 3 to 4, respectively. Conclusion: Immune recovery was pronounced among provincial or central hospitals. Male patients with lower CD4 cell counts were at a higher risk of immune deterioration and mortality, while elderly patients were more likely to immune deteriorate. Early therapeutic interventions when the immune system is relatively stable across gender and age may contain mortality and increase survival outcomes. Interventions which strengthen ART services in primary healthcare facilities are essential.

HIV progression and predictors of mortality in a community-based cohort of Zambian adults

This article describes immunological HIV progression, mortality, and its predictors in 974 Zambian adults. During 3138 person-years of follow-up, 281 deaths occurred, and the overall mortality rate was 9.0 per 100 person-years. Thirty-six percent of patients were dead within 5 years of enrollment. The median survival in patients with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/mm³ was 5.62 years, with CD4 count between 200 and 499 cells/mm³ 5.46 years, and with CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ 3.89 years. The mortality rate increased significantly with older age (6.9 in patients <25 years, 9.3 in individuals aged 25-39 years, 10.2 in patients ≥40 years) and was higher in women (rate ratio 1.29). The median annual change of progression markers was -29.6 cells/mm³ for CD4 count, -3.0% for CD4 count percentage, 1.2 nmol/L for neopterin, -1.9 g/L for hemoglobin, and -70 cells/mm³ for total lymphocyte count. Hemoglobin and neopterin were as accurate as CD4 count to predict mortality.

Modeling the time course of CD4 T-lymphocyte counts according to the level of virologic rebound in HIV-1-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To study the influence of the level of virologic rebound during combination antiretroviral therapy on the time course of the CD4 count.

METHODS

Between January 1997 and December 1999, we enrolled 3736 patients from the French Hospital HIV Database who had an undetectable viral load on a first course of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Four levels of virologic rebound were defined on the basis of viral load values during the year following initial undetectability on HAART: group 1, all viral loads <500 copies/mL; group 2, all viral loads <5000 copies/mL; group 3, all viral loads <10,000 copies/mL; and group 4, at least 1 viral load >10,000 copies/mL. We developed a continuous time-homogeneous Markov process with 5 reversible stages defined by CD4 count intervals.

RESULTS

CD4 counts increased continuously over time in each group. The smaller the virologic rebound, the stronger was the increase in the CD4 count (P < 0.0001). The mean CD4 cell count increments between months 2 and 6 were 26, 20, 11, and 2 cells/mm3 in groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The rate of gain fell after month 6 and was almost nil in group 4.

CONCLUSION

After achieving an undetectable viral load on HAART, immunologic reconstitution is possible whatever the subsequent level of viral replication, except among patients with high-level rebound, meaning that in patients with a long history of antiretroviral therapy and a reduced choice of antiretroviral drugs due to acquisition of resistances, delay in antiretroviral therapy switch can be possible in patients with low or intermediate rebound.

Broad spectrum of coreceptor usage and rapid disease progression in HIV-1-infected individuals from Central African Republic

To study the progression of HIV-1 infection and coreceptor usages in Central African Republic, clinical data, plasma viral load, and coreceptor usage of sequential HIV-1 isolates were analyzed in a seroincident prospective cohort (PRIMOCA). Twenty-three HIV-1 infected individuals from the Central African Armed Forces were followed from 1995 to 2000. Viruses were isolated from 17 patients at various time points after seroconversion and their coreceptor usage was examined using GHOST cells expressing CD4 and one of the HIV-1 chemokine coreceptors CCR5, CXCR4, BOB/GPR15, and Bonzo/STRL33/CXCR6. Eleven patients died from AIDS. Eight of them died between 2 and 5 years after seroconversion, after a brief symptomatic stage. Patients who rapidly progressed to AIDS and death displayed the highest viral loads after seroconversion. All isolates obtained soon after seroconversion used CCR5, albeit, in some cases, CXCR4, BOB, or Bonzo were also used. Most isolates remained R5 (59 out of 61 isolates), although viruses using CXCR4 appeared in some cases of progression to AIDS. In several cases, a broad tropism was observed during the course of infection, with a frequent usage of BOB and Bonzo in addition to CCR5. Rapid progression to disease and short survival time among Central African HIV-1 patients appear more frequent than those reported in industrialized countries. Viral coreceptor used was mainly CCR5, but, interestingly, a large part of isolates also used BOB and Bonzo. However, there was no strict correlation between the clinical outcome and extended viral tropism.

Late diagnosis of HIV infection in women seeking counseling and testing services in São Paulo, Brazil

We investigated whether women positive for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were late in seeking an anonymous HIV counseling and testing service, and the factors associated with a low CD4 count, in São Paulo, Brazil. Seventy-one consecutive HIV-1-seropositive women were interviewed by means of a structured questionnaire. Blood samples were collected for CD4+ T-lymphocytes count and determination of HIV-1 subtypes. Hepatitis C, syphilis, human T-cell lymphotrophic virus type I (HTLV-I), and HTLV-II infections were assessed by serologic tests. More than 70% of the women had less than 500 CD4+ cells/mm3 (20% below 200). Low CD4 count was significantly associated with sex work history, condom use in the last 6 months, and seropositivity to HTLV-I and syphilis. There was no relation between low CD4 count and HIV-1 subtypes. These results indicate that in Sao Paulo many women are seeking an anonymous testing service late in the course of HIV infection. The main purposes of anonymous HIV testing services - early diagnosis of infection, and counseling to prevent infection - are not being achieved. Another strategy for reducing the interval between infection and diagnosis in women must be addressed.