Estimating the need for antiretroviral treatment and an assessment of a simplified HIV/AIDS case definition in rural Malawi

Neurocognitive outcomes of children exposed to and living with HIV aged 3-5 years in Kilifi, Kenya

Introduction

Globally, 1.7 million children are living with HIV, with the majority of them residing in sub-Saharan Africa. Due to reduced rates of vertical transmission of HIV, there is an increasing population of children born to HIV-infected mothers who remain uninfected. There is a growing concern around the development of these children in the antiretroviral therapy era. This study examined the neurocognitive outcomes of children who are HIV-exposed infected (CHEI), HIV-exposed uninfected (CHEU) and HIV-unexposed uninfected (CHUU) and explored the relationship between child neurocognitive outcomes and child's biomedical and caregivers' psychosocial factors.

Methods

CHEI, CHUU and CHEU aged 3-5 years and their caregivers were recruited into the study. Neurocognitive outcomes were assessed using a validated battery of assessments. One-way analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA and ANCOVA) were used to evaluate differences among the three groups by neurocognitive outcomes. Linear regression models were used to investigate the association between child neurocognitive outcomes and biomedical factors (nutritional status, HIV disease staging) and caregivers' psychosocial factors [symptoms of common mental disorders (CMDs) and parenting behaviour].

Results

The study included 153 children and their caregivers: 43 (28.1%) CHEI, 52 (34.0%) CHEU and 58 (39.9%) CHUU. ANOVA and ANCOVA revealed a significant difference in cognitive ability mean scores across the child groups. Post hoc analysis indicated that CHEU children had higher cognitive ability mean scores than the CHUU group. Better nutritional status was significantly associated with higher cognitive ability scores (β = 0.68, 95% CI [0.18-1.18], p = 0.008). Higher scores of CMDs were negatively associated with inhibitory control (β = -0.28, 95% CI [-0.53 to 0.02], p = 0.036). While comparing HIV stages 2 and 3, large effect sizes were seen in working memory (0.96, CI [0.08-1.80]) and cognitive ability scores (0.83 CI [0.01-1.63]), indicating those in stage 3 had poor performance.

Conclusions

Neurocognitive outcomes were similar across CHEI, CHEU and CHUU, although subtle differences were seen in cognitive ability scores where CHEU had significantly higher cognitive mean scores than the CHUU. Well-designed longitudinal studies are needed to ascertain these findings. Nonetheless, study findings underscore the need for strategies to promote better child nutrition, mental health, and early antiretroviral therapy initiation.

Sustained 10-year gain in adult life expectancy following antiretroviral therapy roll-out in rural Malawi: July 2005 to June 2014

Background: Improved life expectancy in high HIV prevalence populations has been observed since antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. However, it is unclear if the benefits are sustained, and the mortality among HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART is not well described. We assessed temporal change in mortality over 9 years in rural Malawi.

Methods: Within a demographic surveillance site in northern rural Malawi, we combined demographic, HIV and ART uptake data. We calculated life expectancy using Kaplan-Meier estimates, and compared mortality rates and rate ratios using Poisson regression, by period of ART availability (July 2005–June 2008, July 2008–June 2011 and July 2011–June 2014).

Results: Among 32 664 individuals there were 1424 deaths; 1930 individuals were known HIV-positive, of whom 1382 started ART. Overall, life expectancy at age 15 years increased by 10 years within 5 years of ART introduction, and plateaued. Age-standardized adult mortality rates declined from 11.3/1000 to 7.5/1000 person-years between the first and last time period. In July 2011-June 2014 compared with July 2005–June 2008, mortality declined in HIV-positive individuals on ART (rate ratio adjusted (aRR) for age, sex, location and education, 0.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2–0.5) and in those not (yet) on ART (aRR 0.3; 95%CI 0.1–0.5) but not in HIV-negative individuals (aRR 1.1; 95%CI 0.7–1.9).

Conclusions: Total population adult life expectancy increased toward that of HIV-negative individuals by 2011 and remained raised. The reduction in all-cause and HIV-related mortality in HIV-positive individuals not (yet) on ART suggests ART uptake is occurring at an earlier disease stage, particularly in women.

A successful model for rapid triage of symptomatic patients at an HIV testing site in Haiti

BACKGROUND

Attrition from HIV testing to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is high. Strengthening linkages in care from testing to treatment may reduce attrition. This study addresses the question: can social workers accurately identify symptomatic patients during HIV testing and fast-track them for rapid provision of services?

METHODS

This study took place at the Haitian Study Group for Kaposi's Sarcoma and Opportunistic Infections (GHESKIO) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. We compared symptoms reported by social workers at HIV testing using a checklist to diagnoses made by physicians on an intake exam to determine if social workers could accurately identify symptomatic patients.

RESULTS

Among the 437 HIV-positive patients included in the study, social workers reported stage-associated symptoms in 100% of patients diagnosed with WHO stage 3 or 4 conditions and in 87% of patients with WHO stage 1 or 2 conditions. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of social worker-reported symptoms for the diagnosis of a WHO stage 3 or 4 condition was 100%, 47%, 31%, and 100%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Social workers can identify symptomatic patients at HIV testing and refer them for fast-tracked services. This strategy may increase the rate of ART initiation among eligible patients.

Diagnostic accuracy of the WHO clinical staging system for defining eligibility for ART in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that HIV-positive adults with CD4 count ≤500 cells/mm(3) initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART). In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, CD4 count is not widely available or consistently used and instead the WHO clinical staging system is used to determine ART eligibility. However, concerns have been raised regarding its discriminatory ability to identify patients eligible to start ART. We therefore reviewed the accuracy of WHO stage 3 or 4 assessment in identifying ART eligibility according to CD4 count thresholds for ART initiation.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and Global Health databases and conference abstracts using a comprehensive strategy for studies that compared the results of WHO clinical staging with CD4 count thresholds. Studies performed in sub-Saharan Africa and published in English between 1998 and 2013 were eligible for inclusion according to our predefined study protocol. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality and risk of bias using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were derived for each CD4 count threshold and hierarchical summary receiver operator characteristic curves were plotted.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, including 25,032 participants from 14 countries. Most studies assessed individuals attending ART clinics prior to treatment initiation. WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease had a sensitivity of 60% (95% CI: 45-73%, Q=914.26, p<0.001) and specificity of 73% (95% CI: 60-83%, Q=1439.43, p<0.001) for a CD4 threshold of ≤200 cells/mm(3) (11 studies); sensitivity and specificity for a threshold of CD4 count ≤350 cells/mm(3) were 45% (95% CI: 26-66%, Q=1607.31, p<0.001) and 85% (95% CI: 69-93%, Q=896.70, p<0.001), respectively (six studies). For the threshold of CD4 count ≤500 cells/mm(3) sensitivity was 14% (95% CI: 13-15%) and specificity was 95% (95% CI: 94-96%) (one study).

CONCLUSIONS

When used for individual treatment decisions, WHO clinical staging misses a high proportion of individuals who are ART eligible by CD4 count, with sensitivity falling as CD4 count criteria rises. Access to accurate, accessible, robust and affordable CD4 count testing methods will be a pressing need for as long as ART initiation decisions are based on criteria other than seropositivity.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Option B+ for HIV prevention and treatment of mothers and children in Malawi

Background

The Ministry of Health in Malawi is implementing a pragmatic and innovative approach for the management of all HIV-infected pregnant women, termed Option B+, which consists of providing life-long antiretroviral treatment, regardless of their CD4 count or clinical stage. Our objective was to determine if Option B+ represents a cost-effective option.

Methods

A decision model simulates the disease progression of a cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women receiving prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy, and estimates the number of paediatric infections averted and maternal life years gained over a ten-year time horizon. We assess the cost-effectiveness from the Ministry of Health perspective while taking into account the practical realities of implementing ART services in Malawi.

Results

If implemented as recommended by the World Health Organization, options A, B and B+ are equivalent in preventing new infant infections, yielding cost effectiveness ratios between US$ 37 and US$ 69 per disability adjusted life year averted in children. However, when the three options are compared to the current practice, the provision of antiretroviral therapy to all mothers (Option B+) not only prevents infant infections, but also improves the ten-year survival in mothers more than four-fold. This translates into saving more than 250,000 maternal life years, as compared to mothers receiving only Option A or B, with savings of 153,000 and 172,000 life years respectively. Option B+ also yields favourable incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER) of US$ 455 per life year gained over the current practice.

Conclusion

In Malawi, Option B+ represents a favorable policy option from a cost-effectiveness perspective to prevent future infant infections, save mothers' lives and reduce orphanhood. Although Option B+ would require more financial resources initially, it would save societal resources in the long-term and represents a strategic option to simplify and integrate HIV services into maternal, newborn and child health programmes.

The effect of antiretroviral therapy provision on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality at the population level--a comparative analysis of data from four settings in Southern and East Africa

OBJECTIVE

To provide a broad and up-to-date picture of the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level mortality in Southern and East Africa.

METHODS

Data on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality among 15-59 year olds were analysed from demographic surveillance sites (DSS) in Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and the Africa Centre (South Africa), using Poisson regression. Trends over time from up to 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 4-6 years afterwards, are presented, overall and by age and sex. For Masaka and Kisesa, trends are analysed separately for HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals. For Karonga and the Africa Centre, trends in AIDS and non-AIDS mortality are analysed using verbal autopsy data.

RESULTS

For all-cause mortality, overall rate ratios (RRs) comparing the period 2-6 years following ART roll-out with the pre-ART period were 0.58 (5.9 vs. 10.2 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Karonga, 0.79 (7.2 vs. 9.1 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Kisesa, 0.61 (6.7 compared with 11.0 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Masaka and 0.79 (14.8 compared with 18.6 deaths per 1000 person-years) in the Africa Centre DSS. The mortality decline was seen only in HIV-positive individuals/AIDS mortality, with no decline in HIV-negative individuals/non-AIDS mortality. Less difference was seen in Kisesa where ART uptake was lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Falls in all-cause mortality are consistent with ART uptake. The largest falls occurred where ART provision has been decentralised or available locally, suggesting that this is important.

Profile: the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System

The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Karonga HDSS) in northern Malawi currently has a population of more than 35 000 individuals under continuous demographic surveillance since completion of a baseline census (2002–2004). The surveillance system collects data on vital events and migration for individuals and for households. It also provides data on cause-specific mortality obtained by verbal autopsy for all age groups, and estimates rates of disease for specific presentations via linkage to clinical facility data. The Karonga HDSS provides a structure for surveys of socio-economic status, HIV sero-prevalence and incidence, sexual behaviour, fertility intentions and a sampling frame for other studies, as well as evaluating the impact of interventions, such as antiretroviral therapy and vaccination programmes. Uniquely, it relies on a network of village informants to report vital events and household moves, and furthermore is linked to an archive of biological samples and data from population surveys and other studies dating back three decades.

CD4 testing at clinics to assess eligibility for antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

In 2011, the Ministry of Health raised the CD4 threshold for antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility from <250 cells/µl and <350 cells/µl, but at the same time only 8.8% of facilities in Malawi with HIV services provided CD4 testing. We conducted a record review at 10 rural clinics in Thyolo District to assess the impact of introducing CD4 testing on identifying patients eligible for ART.

METHODS

We abstracted CD4 counts of all ART-naïve, HIV-infected patients with WHO clinical stages 1 and 2 and an initial CD4 test between May 2008 and June 2009. At four clinics, we also abstracted CD4 counts of patients not initially eligible for ART who were retested before April 2010.

RESULTS

Of 1,113 patients tested, the initial CD4 was "≤250 cells/µl" and "≤350 cells/µl" in 534 (48.0%). Of 203 patients with follow-up results, the most recent CD4 was ≤250 cells/µl in 34 (24.5%), and ≤350 cells/µl in 64 (46.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

CD4 testing in rural clinics is feasible and identifies many patients eligible for ART who would not be identified without CD4 testing. CD4 testing needs to be scaled-up to identify patients eligible for ART. ART services need to be scaled-up concurrently to meet the resulting increased demand.

Combining qualitative and quantitative evidence to determine factors leading to late presentation for antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

Background

Treatment seeking delays among people living with HIV have adverse consequences for outcome. Gender differences in treatment outcomes have been observed in sub-Saharan Africa.

Objective

To better understand antiretroviral treatment (ART) seeking behaviour in HIV-infected adults in rural Malawi.

Methods

Qualitative interviews with male and female participants in an ART cohort study at a treatment site in rural northern Malawi triangulated with analysis of baseline clinical and demographic data for 365 individuals attending sequentially for ART screening between January 2008 and September 2009.

Results

43% of the cohort presented with late stage HIV disease classified as WHO stage 3/4. Respondents reported that women's frequency of testing, health awareness and commitment to children led to earlier ART uptake and that men's commitment to wider social networks of influence, masculine ideals of strength, and success with sexual and marital partners led them to refuse treatment until they were sick. Quantitative analysis of the screening cohort provided supporting evidence for these expressed views. Overall, male gender (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI1.3–3.9) and never being married (adjusted OR 4.1, 95% CI1.5–11.5) were risk factors for late presentation, whereas having ≥3 dependent children was associated with earlier presentation (adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI0.15–0.63),compared to those with no dependent children.

Conclusion

Gender-specific barriers and facilitators operate throughout the whole process of seeking care. Further efforts to enrol men into care earlier should focus on the masculine characteristics that they value, and the risks to these of severe health decline. Our results emphasise the value of exploring as well as identifying behavioural correlates of late presentation.

Normal Range of CD4 Cell Counts and Temporal Changes in Two HIVNegative Malawian Populations

Longitudinal studies were carried out to determine trends in CD4 cell counts over a four year period in healthy HIV-negative adults in a rural (134 individuals) and an urban (80 individuals) site in Malawi, using TruCountTM and FACScountTM platforms. At baseline, median counts and 95% ranges were 890 (359-1954) cells per microlitre (μl) and 725 (114-1074) cells/μl respectively. 1.5% and 6% respectively had baseline counts below 350 cells/μl and 1.5% and 2.5% below 250 cells per μl. Transient dips to below 250 cells/μl were observed in seven individuals, with two individuals having persistently low CD4 counts over more than one year. Women and individuals from the urban site were significantly more likely to have "low CD4 count" (< 500 cells/μl) even when adjusted for other factors. In common with neighbouring countries, HIV-negative populations in Malawi have CD4 counts considerably lower than European reference ranges, and healthy individuals may have persistently or transiently low counts. Within Malawi, ranges differ according to the selected population.

More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie matrix representation and new estimates

This article presents an extension of the cohort-component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline (2003) that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. Heuveline proposes a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the age profile of HIV incidence that produced the HIV epidemics in East Africa during the 1990s. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP, which greatly facilitates the implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projection. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. Another contribution of this work is that we update the sources of data used to estimate the parameters, and use these data to estimate a modified version of the CCMPP that includes (estimated) parameters governing the survival experience of the infected population. A further application of the model to a small population with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa is presented as an additional demonstration. This work lays the foundation for development of more robust and flexible Bayesian estimation methods that will greatly enhance the utility of this and similar models.

Validation of World Health Organisation HIV/AIDS clinical staging in predicting initiation of antiretroviral therapy and clinical predictors of low CD4 cell count in Uganda

Introduction

The WHO clinical guidelines for HIV/AIDS are widely used in resource limited settings to represent the gold standard of CD4 counts for antiviral therapy initiation. The utility of the WHO-defined stage 1 and 2 clinical factors used in WHO HIV/AIDS clinical staging in predicting low CD4 cell count has not been established in Uganda. Although the WHO staging has shown low sensitivity for predicting CD4<200cells/mm³, it has not been evaluated at for CD4 cut-offs of <250cells/mm³ or <350 cells/mm³.

Objective

To validate the World Health Organisation HIV/AIDS clinical staging in predicting initiation of antiretroviral therapy in a low-resource setting and to determine the clinical predictors of low CD4 cell count in Uganda.

Results

Data was collected on 395 participants from the Joint Clinical Research Centre, of whom 242 (61.3%) were classified as in stages 1 and 2 and 262 (68%) were females. Participants had a mean age of 36.8 years (SD 8.5). We found a significant inverse correlation between the CD4 lymphocyte count and WHO clinical stages. The sensitivity the WHO clinical staging at CD4 cell count of 250 cells/mm³ and 350cells/mm³ was 53.5% and 49.1% respectively. Angular cheilitis, papular pruritic eruptions and recurrent upper respiratory tract infections were found to be significant predictors of low CD4 cell count among participants in WHO stage 1 and 2.

Conclusion

The WHO HIV/AIDS clinical staging guidelines have a low sensitivity and about half of the participants in stages 1 and 2 would be eligible for ART initiation if they had been tested for CD4 count. Angular cheilitis and papular pruritic eruptions and recurrent upper respiratory tract infections may be used, in addition to the WHO staging, to improve sensitivity in the interim, as access to CD4 machines increases in Uganda.

High accuracy of home-based community rapid HIV testing in rural Malawi

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of rapid HIV antibody tests when used as part of a home-based community wide counseling and testing strategy in northern Malawi.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional population survey of HIV infection, 2007 to 2008.

METHODS

Adults aged 15 years or older in a demographic surveillance area were counseled and then offered an HIV test at their home by government-certified counselors. Two initial rapid tests (Determine and Uni-Gold) were performed on all samples and a third, tie-breaker test (SD Bioline) used to resolve discordant results. All people who wanted to know were posttest-counseled and informed of their results with referral to local clinical services if found to be HIV-positive. Laboratory quality control comprised retesting all positive and every tenth negative venous blood sample collected.

RESULTS

A total of 10,819 adults provided venous blood samples for HIV testing, of whom 7.5% (813) were HIV-positive. The accuracy of the parallel testing strategy used was high with 99.6% sensitivity, 100.0% specificity, 99.9% positive predictive value, and 99.9% negative predictive value.

CONCLUSION

Face-to-face rapid testing by health personnel with minimum training at the client's home performs well when used on a wide scale in the community setting.

Estimating the Impact and Cost of the WHO 2010 Recommendations for Antiretroviral Therapy

In July 2010, WHO published new recommendations on providing antiretroviral therapy to adults and adolescents, including starting ART earlier, usually at a CD4 count of 350 or lower, specific regimens for first- and second-line therapies, and other recommendations. This paper estimates the potential impact and cost of the revised guidelines by first, calculating the number of people that would be in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART) with different eligibility criteria, and second, calculating the costs associated with the potential impact. Results indicate that switching the eligibility criterion from CD4 count <200 to <350 increases the need for ART in low- and middle-income countries (country-level) by 50% (range 34% to 70%). The costs of ART programs only to increase coverage to 80% by 2015 would be 44% more (range 29% to 63%) when switching the eligibility criterion to CD4 count <350. When testing and outreach costs are included, total costs increase by 62%, from US$26.3 billion under the previous eligibility criterion of treating those with CD4 <200 to US$42.5 billion using the revised eligibility criterion of treating those with CD4 <350.

Clinical staging of HIV-related illness in Mozambique: performance of nonphysician clinicians based on direct observation of clinical care and implications for health worker training

INTRODUCTION

In Mozambique, clinical staging may be the primary determinant of HIV/AIDS treatment decisions, and the task of staging commonly falls to nonphysician clinicians (técnicos de medicina). Two years after the first Mozambican técnicos were trained in HIV/AIDS care, the quality of their performance in clinical staging was unknown.

METHODS

Expert clinicians observed 127 clinical encounters conducted by a randomly selected national sample of 44 técnicos and compared observed clinical staging decisions to World Health Organization and Mozambican national norms. They also reviewed relevant Mozambican in-service training curricula in HIV/AIDS care.

RESULTS

Observers agreed with fewer than half (44.1%) of the técnicos' stage-defining diagnoses. Misclassification or misdiagnosis of 3 complaints (weight loss, fever, and diarrhea) accounted for the majority of the observed errors. Review of health worker curricula determined that observed staging errors reflected content errors and omissions in the técnicos' in-service HIV/AIDS training and constraints in local laboratory and imaging capacity.

DISCUSSION

In response to these findings, the Mozambican Ministry of Health has revised the técnicos' scope of work and has developed new guidelines, curriculum materials, and training strategies to improve the quality of clinical staging and opportunistic infection diagnosis in Mozambique.

Population-level reduction in adult mortality after extension of free anti-retroviral therapy provision into rural areas in northern Malawi

Background

Four studies from sub-Saharan Africa have found a substantial population-level effect of ART provision on adult mortality. It is important to see if the impact changes with time since the start of treatment scale-up, and as treatment moves to smaller clinics.

Methods and Findings

During 2002-4 a demographic surveillance site (DSS) was established in Karonga district, northern Malawi. Information on births and deaths is collected monthly, with verbal autopsies conducted for all deaths; migrations are updated annually. We analysed mortality trends by comparing three time periods: pre-ART roll-out in the district (August 2002–June 2005), ART period 1 (July 2005–September 2006) when ART was available only in a town 70 km away, and ART period 2 (October 2006–September 2008), when ART was available at a clinic within the DSS area. HIV prevalence and ART uptake were estimated from a sero-survey conducted in 2007/2008. The all-cause mortality rate among 15–59 year olds was 10.2 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period (288 deaths/28285 person-years). It fell by 16% in ART period 1 and by 32% in ART period 2 (95% CI 18%–43%), compared with the pre-ART period. The AIDS mortality rate fell from 6.4 to 4.6 to 2.7 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period, period 1 and period 2 respectively (rate ratio for period 2 = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33–0.56). There was little change in non-AIDS mortality. Treatment coverage among individuals eligible to start ART was around 70% in 2008.

Conclusions

ART can have a dramatic effect on mortality in a resource-constrained setting in Africa, at least in the early years of treatment provision. Our findings support the decentralised delivery of ART from peripheral health centres with unsophisticated facilities. Continued funding to maintain and further scale-up treatment provision will bring large benefits in terms of saving lives.

What happens to ART-eligible patients who do not start ART? Dropout between screening and ART initiation: a cohort study in Karonga, Malawi

Background

Routine ART programme statistics generally only provide information about individuals who start treatment. We aimed to investigate the outcome of those who are eligible but do not start ART in the Malawi programme, factors associated with this dropout, and reasons for not starting treatment, in a prospective cohort study.

Methods

Individuals having a first screening visit at the ART clinic at Karonga District Hospital, northern Malawi, between September 2005 and July 2006 were interviewed. Study follow-up to identify treatment outcomes was conducted at the clinic and in the community. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with dropout before ART initiation among participants identified as clinically eligible for ART.

Results

88 participants eligible for ART at their first screening visit (out of 633, 13.9%) defaulted before starting ART. Participants with less education, difficulties in dressing, a more delayed ART initiation appointment, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) < 22 cm were significantly less likely to have visited the clinic subsequently. Thirty-five (58%) of the 60 participants who defaulted and were tracked at home had died, 21 before their ART initiation appointment.

Conclusions

MUAC and reported difficulties in dressing may provide useful screening indicators to identify sicker ART-eligible individuals at high risk of dropping out of the programme who might benefit from being brought back quickly or admitted to hospital for observation. Individuals with less education may need adapted health information at screening. Deaths of ART-eligible individuals occurring prior to ART initiation are not included in routine programme statistics. Considering all those who are eligible for ART as a denominator for programme indicators would help to highlight this vulnerable group, in order to identify new opportunities for further improving ART programmes.

Population uptake of antiretroviral treatment through primary care in rural South Africa

Background

KwaZulu-Natal is the South African province worst affected by HIV and the focus of early modeling studies investigating strategies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) delivery. The reality of antiretroviral roll-out through primary care has differed from that anticipated and real world data are needed to inform the planning of further scaling up of services. We investigated the factors associated with uptake of antiretroviral treatment through a primary healthcare system in rural South Africa.

Methods

Detailed demographic, HIV surveillance and geographic information system (GIS) data were used to estimate the proportion of HIV positive adults accessing antiretroviral treatment within northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in the period from initiation of antiretroviral roll-out until the end of 2008. Demographic, spatial and socioeconomic factors influencing the likelihood of individuals accessing antiretroviral treatment were explored using multivariable analysis.

Results

Mean uptake of ART among HIV positive resident adults was 21.0% (95%CI 20.1-21.9). Uptake among HIV positive men (19.2%) was slightly lower than women (21.8%, P = 0.011). An individual's likelihood of accessing ART was not associated with level of education, household assets or urban/rural locale. ART uptake was strongly negatively associated with distance from the nearest primary healthcare facility (aOR = 0.728 per square-root transformed km, 95%CI 0.658-0.963, P = 0.002).

Conclusions

Despite concerns about the equitable nature of antiretroviral treatment rollout, we find very few differences in ART uptake across a range of socio-demographic variables in a rural South African population. However, even when socio-demographic factors were taken into account, individuals living further away from primary healthcare clinics were still significantly less likely to be accessing ART

Cost-effectiveness of routine and low-cost CD4 T-cell count compared with WHO clinical staging of HIV to guide initiation of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings

BACKGROUND

HIV is a major cause of disease and death in sub-Saharan Africa. Provision and scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings is feasible and cost-effective. Initiation of ART is guided by WHO stage or CD4 cell count; the latter may not be available and up to 70% of eligible individuals are not identified. Low-cost CD4 cell count tests are comparable to conventional methods. We compared the direct healthcare costs and benefits using routine and low-cost CD4 cell count versus WHO staging to initiate ART.

METHODS

Using a Markov state transition model, we incorporated costs, survival and quality of life. We compared the direct healthcare costs and benefits in quality-adjusted life years gained using routine and low-cost CD4 cell count versus WHO staging to initiate ART. We estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in US$ per quality-adjusted life year gained and compared with threshold of gross domestic product per capita. Uncertainty was assessed by sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Routine and low-cost CD4 cell counts compared to WHO staging to guide initiation of ART improved quantity and quality of life and appears to be very cost-effective. The base case estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$939 and US$85 per quality-adjusted life years gained, respectively, and well below the cost effectiveness thresholds of gross domestic product per capita.

CONCLUSION

Routine or low-cost CD4 cell count compared to WHO staging, to guide initiation of ART, is a very cost-effective intervention for sub-Saharan Africa and should be an integral part of the scale-up of ART programs.

Changing clinical needs of people living with AIDS and receiving home based care in Malawi--the Bangwe Home Based Care Project 2003-2008--a descriptive study

BACKGROUND

Home based care (HBC) has been an important component of the response to the AIDS epidemic in Africa, and particularly so before antiretroviral therapy (ART) became available. Has HBC become unnecessary now that ART is available in many African countries? One way to investigate this is to assess the changing need for comprehensive HBC as an ART programme becomes available. The Bangwe HBC programme in Malawi has been collecting data since 2003 before ART became available in 2005/6. Has the introduction of ART changed the clinical needs for HBC?

METHODS

Information obtained at initial assessment and follow up visits of patients receiving HBC were combined to assess case severity, survival and the response to treatment. This information was used to assess trends in mortality and the incidence, duration and severity of common symptoms over a six year period in a defined urban population in Malawi.

RESULTS

1266 patients, of whom 1190 were followed up and of whom 652 (55%) died, were studied. 282 (25%) patients died within two months of being first seen with an improvement between 2003-2005 and 2006-2008 of reduced mortality from 28% to 20%. 341 (27%) patients were unable to care for themselves on first assessment and 675 (53%) had stage 4 AIDS disease. Most patients had a mix of symptoms at presentation. Self care increased somewhat over the six years although case severity as measured by WHO staging and nutritional status did not.350 patients were on ART either started before or after initial assessment. There were significant barriers to accessing ART with 156 (51%) of 304 stage 3 or 4 patients first assessed in 2007 or 2008 not receiving ART.Over the six year period new HBC cases reduced by 8% and follow up visits increased by 9% a year. Between 4 and 5 people sought HBC for the first time each week from an urban health centre catchment of 100,000, which required 37.3 follow up visits each week.

CONCLUSIONS

Since the availability of ART in the local health facilities and despite strenuous efforts to persuade people to seek HIV testing and ART, in practice barriers existed and half the eligible HBC patients did not have access to ART. This is one reason why the clinical need for HBC services had not changed much. In terms of quantity of care the number of new patients seeking HBC reduced by 8% a year. In terms of content of care, while there had been a marginal increase in self care the severity of illness had not changed and the survival of a significant proportion of patients generated the need for repeat visits, which increased by 9% a year. In conclusion, although the content has changed the need for HBC has not diminished despite the availability of ART.

Further benefits by early start of HIV treatment in low income countries: survival estimates of early versus deferred antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

International HIV guidelines have recently shifted from a medium-late to an early-start treatment strategy. As a consequence, more people will be eligible to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART). We estimate mean life years gained using different treatment indications in low income countries.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic search to identify relevant studies on the treatment effect of HAART. Outcome from identified observational studies were combined in a pooled-analyses and we apply these data in a Markov life cycle model based on a hypothetical Tanzanian HIV population. Survival for three different HIV populations with and without any treatment is estimated. The number of patients included in our pooled-analysis is 35,047.

RESULTS

Providing HAART early when CD4 is 200-350 cells/microl is likely to be the best outcome strategy with an expected net benefit of 14.5 life years per patient. The model predicts diminishing treatment benefits for patients starting treatment when CD4 counts are lower. Patients starting treatment at CD4 50-199 and <50 cells/microl have expected net health benefits of 7.6 and 7.3 life years. Without treatment, HIV patients with CD4 counts 200-350; 50-199 and < 50 cells/microl can expect to live 4.8; 2.0 and 0.7 life years respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that HIV patients live longer with early start strategies in low income countries. Since low income countries have many constraints to full coverage of HAART, this study provides input to a more transparent debate regarding where to draw explicit eligibility criteria during further scale up of HAART.

Individual, household and community factors associated with HIV test refusal in rural Malawi

OBJECTIVE

To investigate individual, household and community factors associated with HIV test refusal in a counselling and testing programme offered at population level in rural Malawi.

METHODS

HIV counselling and testing was offered to individuals aged 18-59 at their homes. Individual variables were collected by interviews and physical examinations. Household variables were determined as part of a previous census. Multivariate models allowing for household and community clustering were used to assess associations between HIV test refusal and explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Of 2303 eligible adults, 2129 were found and 1443 agreed to HIV testing. Test refusal was less likely by those who were never married [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.50 for men (95% CI 0.32; 0.80) and 0.44 (0.21; 0.91) for women] and by farmers [aOR 0.70 (0.52; 0.96) for men and 0.59 (0.40; 0.87) for women]. A 10% increase in cluster refusal rates increased the odds of refusal by 1.48 (1.32; 1.66) in men and 1.68 (1.32; 2.12) in women. Women counsellors increased the odds of refusal by 1.39 (1.00; 1.92) in men. Predictors of HIV test refusal in women were refusal of the husband as head of household [aOR 15.08 (9.39; 24.21)] and living close to the main road [aOR 6.07 (1.76; 20.98)]. Common reasons for refusal were fear of testing positive, previous HIV test, knowledge of HIV serostatus and the need for more time to think.

CONCLUSION

Successful VCT strategies need to encourage couples counselling and should involve participation of men and communities.

Population-level effect of HIV on adult mortality and early evidence of reversal after introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Malawi, which has about 80,000 deaths from AIDS every year, made free antiretroviral therapy available to more than 80 000 patients between 2004 and 2006. We aimed to investigate mortality in a population before and after the introduction of free antiretroviral therapy, and therefore to assess the effects of such programmes on survival at the population level.

METHODS

We used a demographic surveillance system to measure mortality in a population of 32,000 in northern Malawi, from August, 2002, when free antiretroviral therapy was not available in the study district, until February, 2006, 8 months after a clinic opened. Causes of death were established through verbal autopsies (retrospective interviews). Patients who registered for antiretroviral therapy at the clinic were identified and linked to the population under surveillance. Trends in mortality were analysed by age, sex, cause of death, and zone of residence.

FINDINGS

Before antiretroviral therapy became available in June, 2005, mortality in adults (aged 15-59 years) was 9.8 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (95% CI 8.9-10.9). The probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 years was 43% (39-49) for men and 43% (38-47) for women; 229 of 352 deaths (65.1%) were attributed to AIDS. 8 months after the clinic that provided antiretroviral therapy opened, 107 adults from the study population had accessed treatment, out of an estimated 334 in need of treatment. Overall mortality in adults had decreased by 10% from 10.2 to 8.7 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (adjusted rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.70-1.14). Mortality was reduced by 35% (adjusted rate ratio 0.65, 0.46-0.92) in adults near the main road, where mortality before antiretroviral therapy was highest (from 13.2 to 8.5 deaths per 1000 person-years of observation before and after antiretroviral therapy). Mortality in adults aged 60 years or older did not change.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings of a reduction in mortality in adults aged between 15 and 59 years, with no change in those older than 60 years, suggests that deaths from AIDS were averted by the rapid scale-up of free antiretroviral therapy in rural Malawi, which led to a decline in adult mortality that was detectable at the population level.