Biochemical prognostic markers of outcome in non-paracetamol-induced fulminant hepatic failure

1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy-based metabonomic study in patients with cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy

AIM: To identify plasma metabolites used as biomarkers in order to distinguish cirrhotics from controls and encephalopathics.

METHODS: A clinical study involving stable cirrhotic patients with and without overt hepatic encephalopathy was designed. A control group of healthy volunteers was used. Plasma from those patients was analysed using ¹H - nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. We used the Carr Purcell Meiboom Gill sequence to process the sample spectra at ambient probe temperature. We used a gated secondary irradiation field for water signal suppression. Samples were calibrated and referenced using the sodium trimethyl silyl propionate peak at 0.00 ppm. For each sample 128 transients (FID’s) were acquired into 32 K complex data points over a spectral width of 6 KHz. 30 degree pulses were applied with an acquisition time of 4.0 s in order to achieve better resolution, followed by a recovery delay of 12 s, to allow for complete relaxation and recovery of the magnetisation. A metabolic profile was created for stable cirrhotic patients without signs of overt hepatic encephalopathy and encephalopathic patients as well as healthy controls. Stepwise discriminant analysis was then used and discriminant factors were created to differentiate between the three groups.

RESULTS: Eighteen stabled cirrhotic patients, eighteen patients with overt hepatic encephalopathy and seventeen healthy volunteers were recruited. Patients with cirrhosis had significantly impaired ketone body metabolism, urea synthesis and gluconeogenesis. This was demonstrated by higher concentrations of acetoacetate (0.23 ± 0.02 vs 0.05 ± 0.00, P < 0.01), and b-hydroxybutarate (0.58 ± 0.14 vs 0.08 ± 0.00, P < 0.01), lower concentrations of glutamine (0.44 ± 0.08 vs 0.63 ± 0.03, P < 0.05), histidine (0.16 ± 0.01 vs 0.36 ± 0.04, P < 0.01) and arginine (0.08 ± 0.01 vs 0.14 ± 0.02, P < 0.03) and higher concentrations of glutamate (1.36 ± 0.25 vs 0.58 ± 0.04, P < 0.01), lactate (1.53 ± 0.11 vs 0.42 ± 0.05, P < 0.01), pyruvate (0.11 ± 0.02 vs 0.03 ± 0.00, P < 0.01) threonine (0.39 ± 0.02 vs 0.08 ± 0.01, P < 0.01) and aspartate (0.37 ± 0.03 vs 0.03 ± 0.01). A five metabolite signature by stepwise discriminant analysis could separate between controls and cirrhotic patients with an accuracy of 98%. In patients with encephalopathy we observed further derangement of ketone body metabolism, impaired production of glycerol and myoinositol, reversal of Fischer’s ratio and impaired glutamine production as demonstrated by lower b-hydroxybutyrate (0.58 ± 0.14 vs 0.16 ± 0.02, P < 0.0002), higher acetoacetate (0.23 ± 0.02 vs 0.41 ± 0.16, P < 0.05), leucine (0.33 ± 0.02 vs 0.49 ± 0.05, P < 0.005) and isoleucine (0.12 ± 0.02 vs 0.27 ± 0.02, P < 0.0004) and lower glutamine (0.44 ± 0.08 vs 0.36 ± 0.04, P < 0.013), glycerol (0.53 ± 0.03 vs 0.19 ± 0.02, P < 0.000) and myoinositol (0.36 ± 0.04 vs 0.18 ± 0.02, P < 0.010) concentrations. A four metabolite signature by stepwise discriminant analysis could separate between encephalopathic and cirrhotic patients with an accuracy of 87%.

CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis and patients with hepatic encephalopathy exhibit distinct metabolic abnormalities and the use of metabonomics can select biomarkers for these diseases.

Early prognostic markers for fatal fulminant hepatic failure cases with viral hepatitis: proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic studies of serum

BACKGROUND

Fulminant hepatic failure is associated with liver metabolic derangements which could have fatal consequences. The aim of the present study is to identify serum markers for early prediction of the outcome.

METHODS

Proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic studies of serum of fulminant hepatic failure patients due to viral hepatitis with grade II/III of encephalopathy (twenty-four: ten prospective and fourteen retrospective) and twenty-five controls were undertaken. Of the twenty-four patients, fifteen survived with medical management alone while nine had fatal outcome.

RESULTS

The results demonstrated significantly elevated indices of amino acids (alanine, lysine, glutamine, histidine, tyrosine, phenylalanine and 1,2-propanediol) in fatal cases compared to survivors and controls. Principal component analysis showed clear separation of fatal and surviving cases. Liver function parameters were significantly deranged in patients but they failed to provide early significant differences between surviving and fatal cases. Compared to model for end-stage liver disease scores, principal component analysis appear to be better as an early prognostic indicator. Biochemical mapping of pathways suggested interruptions in amino acid metabolism and urea cycle.

CONCLUSIONS

Proton nuclear magnetic resonance studies of serum have the potential of rapidly identifying patients with irreversible fulminant hepatic failure requiring liver transplantation as life saving option.

Prediction of poor outcome in patients with acute liver failure-systematic review of prediction models

INTRODUCTION

Acute liver failure is a rare disease with high mortality and liver transplantation is the only life saving therapy. Accurate prognosis of ALF is crucial for proper intervention.

AIM

To identify and characterize newly developed prognostic models of mortality for ALF patients, assess study quality, identify important variables and provide recommendations for the development of improved models in the future.

METHODS

The online databases MEDLINE® (1950-2012) and EMBASE® (1980-2012) were searched for English-language articles that reported original data from clinical trials or observational studies on prognostic models in ALF patients. Studies were included if they developed a new model or modified existing prognostic models. The studies were evaluated based on an existing framework for scoring the methodological and reporting quality of prognostic models.

RESULTS

Twenty studies were included, of which 18 reported on newly developed models, 1 on modification of the Kings College Criteria (KCC) and 1 on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). Ten studies compared the newly developed models to previously existing models (e.g. KCC); they all reported that the new models were superior. In the 12-point methodological quality score, only one study scored full points. On the 38-point reporting score, no study scored full points. There was a general lack of reporting on missing values. In addition, none of the studies used performance measures for calibration and accuracy (e.g. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, Brier score), and only 5 studies used the AUC as a measure of discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

There are many studies on prognostic models for ALF but they show methodological and reporting limitations. Future studies could be improved by better reporting and handling of missing data, the inclusion of model calibration aspects, use of absolute risk measures, explicit considerations for variable selection, the use of a more extensive set of reference models and more thorough validation.

Systematic review: acute liver failure - one disease, more than 40 definitions

BACKGROUND

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a clinical syndrome with very high mortality estimates ranging between 60% and 80%.

AIM

To investigate the explicitness and extent of variability in the used ALF definitions in the ALF prognostic literature.

METHODS

All studies that pertain to the prognosis of patients with ALF were electronically searched in MEDLINE (1950-2012) and EMBASE (1950-2012). Identified titles and abstracts were independently screened by three reviewers to determine eligibility for additional review. We included English articles that reported original data from clinical trials or observational studies on ALF patients.

RESULTS

A total of 103 studies were included. Of these studies 87 used 41 different ALF definitions and the remaining 16 studies did not report any explicit ALF definition. Four components underlying ALF definitions accounted for the differences: presence and/or grading of hepatic encephalopathy (HE); the interval between onset of disease and occurrence of HE; presence of coagulopathy and pre-existing liver disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The diversity in acute liver failure definitions hinders comparability and quantitative analysis among studies. There is room for improvement in the reporting of acute liver failure definitions in prognostic studies. The result of this review may be useful as a starting point to create a uniform acute liver failure definition.

Regional variations in the concentrations of ketone bodies in cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy: a study in patients with TIPSS

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the metabolism of acetoacetate and β-hydroxybutyrate in patients with cirrhosis and encephalopathy.

AIMS

We investigated the fate of ketone bodies in these conditions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied 18 cirrhotic patients with encephalopathy and 17 cirrhotics without. At the time of insertion of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt (TIPSS) or at the time of portographical assessment of the shunt's patency, we collected blood from the internal jugular, the right atrium, the inferior vena cava, the hepatic, the portal, the splenic veins and the radial artery. We used nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to measure the concentrations of acetoacetate and β-hydroxybutyrate.

RESULTS

There was no difference in the total ketone body concentrations between the two groups. The mitochondrial redox potential was significantly higher in the encephalopathics (142/54=2.63 vs 52/83=0.62) (P<0.01). β-hydroxybutyrate was significantly lower in the portal vein of encephalopathics (52 ± 4 vs 28 ± 3) (P<0.02) and in the splenic vein (48 ± 6 vs 32 ± 5) (P<0.04). Acetoacetate was significantly higher in encephalopathics in the internal jugular vein (134 ± 12 vs 92 ± 16) (P<0.03), the right atrium (112 ± 18 vs 68 ± 11) (P<0.03), the hepatic vein (162 ± 25 vs 115 ± 19) (P<0.05), the portal vein (133 ± 20 vs 81 ± 14) (P<0.02) and the splenic vein (167 ± 24 vs 122 ± 21) (P<0.04). All measurements are expressed in μmols/L.

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant variations in the regional concentrations of the ketone bodies in encephalopathy.

Impaired gluconeogenesis in a porcine model of paracetamol induced acute liver failure

AIM: To investigate glucose homeostasis and in particular gluconeogenesis in a large animal model of acute liver failure (ALF).

METHODS: Six pigs with paracetamol induced ALF under general anaesthesia were studied over 25 h. Plasma samples were withdrawn every five hours from a central vein. Three animals were used as controls and were maintained under anaesthesia only. Using ¹H NMR spectroscopy we identified most gluconeogenic amino acids along with lactate and pyruvate in the animal plasma samples.

RESULTS: No significant changes were observed in the concentrations of the amino acids studied in the animals maintained under anaesthesia only. If we look at the ALF animals, we observed a statistically significant rise of lactate (P < 0.003) and pyruvate (P < 0.018) at the end of the experiments. We also observed statistically significant rises in the concentrations of alanine (P < 0.002), glycine (P < 0.005), threonine (P < 0.048), tyrosine (P < 0.000), phenylalanine (P < 0.000) and isoleucine (P < 0.01). Valine levels decreased significantly (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Our pig model of ALF is characterized by an altered gluconeogenetic capacity, an impaired tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle and a glycolytic state.

The role of serum lactate in the acute care setting

Acute care services are increasingly faced with the double burden of high patient acuity and limited resources. Early identification of patients who are sick or who have the potential to deteriorate rapidly is crucial so that these resources may be allocated to those in greatest need. Traditional measures of illness and end points of resuscitation, such as vital signs, often fail to identify occult hypoperfusion with certain disease processes associated with high morbidity and mortality. Thus, biochemical markers that may predict illness earlier are becoming more relevant. We present a review of the evidence behind use of the serum lactate level in this setting.

Increase brain lactate in hepatic encephalopathy: cause or consequence?

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a complex neuropsychiatric syndrome which develops as a result of liver failure or disease. Increased concentrations of brain lactate (microdialysate, cerebrospinal fluid, tissue) are commonly measured in patients with HE induced by either acute or chronic liver failure. Whether an increase in brain lactate is a cause or a consequence of HE remains undetermined. A rise in cerebral lactate may occur due to (1) blood-borne lactate (hyperlactataemia) crossing the blood-brain barrier, (2) increased glycolysis due to energy failure or impairment and (3) increased lactate production/release or decreased lactate utilization/uptake. This review explores the different reasons for lactate accumulation in the brain during liver failure and describes the possible roles of lactate in the pathogenesis of HE.

Liver transplantation avoided in patients with fulminant hepatic failure who received albumin dialysis with the molecular adsorbent recirculating system while on the waiting list: impact of the duration of therapy

Eighteen patients with fulminant hepatic failure due to various medical causes were listed for emergency liver transplantation and treated with extracorporeal albumin dialysis sessions using the molecular adsorbent recirculating system (MARS) at our center over a 74-month period. Due to improvement of liver function, transplantation could be avoided in 9 patients (50%, 95% confidence interval 29% to 71%) who fully recovered afterwards. This improvement rate was higher than the rate of improvement in the French cohort of fulminant hepatic failure patients with similar etiologies (19.3%, 95% confidence interval 14.9% to 24.6%, P = 0.002). In our 18 patients, there were no statistically significant differences in any baseline characteristics or in the time with liver failure meeting transplant criteria between the patients who improved while waiting and those who did not. However, the patients who improved received a greater number of sessions and a longer total duration of MARS therapy (all P < 0.001). In the whole study population, a MARS therapy duration > or =15 h was significantly associated with improvement of liver function without transplantation (adjusted adds ratio [OR] 65.76, 2.48-1743.11, P = 0.01). Tolerance of therapy was acceptable. These results suggest that MARS therapy could contribute to native liver recovery and is safe in patients on the waiting list for fulminant hepatic failure. A minimum duration of therapy (> or =15 h) could be necessary to expect significant liver function improvement.

The utilization of liver transplantation in the management of acute liver failure: comparison between acetaminophen and non-acetaminophen etiologies

Liver transplantation (LT) may be life-saving in severe acute liver failure (ALF). The aim of this study was to compare the utilization of LT in acetaminophen and non-acetaminophen ALF. Between 1992 and 2006, 469 patients with ALF were admitted, and 104 underwent LT. Acetaminophen was the most common etiology, but LT proceeded more frequently in the non-acetaminophen cohort (acetaminophen: 45/326 patients received LT, 13.8%; non-acetaminophen: 59/143 patients received LT, 41.3%; P < 0.01). A retrospective analysis of the individual steps in the management of patients revealed more ALF patients in the non-acetaminophen cohort fulfilled the King's College Hospital poor prognostic criteria (non-acetaminophen: 91/143, 63.6%; acetaminophen: 165/326, 50.6%; P < 0.01), more patients had contraindications to LT in the acetaminophen cohort (acetaminophen: 99/165, 60%; non-acetaminophen: 21/91, 23.1%; P < 0.01), and survival on the LT waiting list was reduced in the acetaminophen cohort (acetaminophen: 45/66, 68.2%; non-acetaminophen: 59/70, 84.3%; P < 0.05). Post-LT survival was similar in the 2 groups. An analysis of cohorts admitted in 1993-1996 and 2002-2005 revealed that LT proceeded less commonly in acetaminophen ALF in the later cohort (1993-1996: 16/99 LT, 16.2%; 2002-2005: 4/81 LT, 5%; P < 0.01) in comparison with the non-acetaminophen cohort, in which transplantation proceeded more commonly in the later cohort (1993-1996: 11/34 LT, 32.4%; 2002-2005: 24/49 patients, 49.0%; P < 0.01). This was due to an increase in the number of patients with psychiatric contraindications to transplantation (predominantly resistant and severe alcohol dependence). In conclusion, at all decision steps between admission and emergency LT, LT is favored in non-acetaminophen patients, and nonoperative management is favored in acetaminophen ALF patients.

Prognostic implications of lactate, bilirubin, and etiology in German patients with acute liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Among the potentially helpful indicators of poor prognosis in acute liver failure (ALF) are etiology, encephalopathy grade, blood lactate, and King's College Criteria (KCC). The accuracy of these parameters in predicting transplantation or death shows significant variation in different countries.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 102 patients with ALF treated at our institution between 1996 and 2005. Baseline parameters, simplified acute physiology score III (SAPS-III), KCC, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and a novel score of bilirubin, lactate, and etiology (BiLE score) were compared between transplant-free survivors and patients who required liver transplantation or died, by using multivariate linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC).

RESULTS

The most common causes of ALF were indeterminate liver failure (21%), acute hepatitis B (18%), acetaminophen ingestion (16%), and Budd-Chiari syndrome (9%). Transplantation-free survival was 38%, 44% of patients underwent liver transplantation, and 18% died without transplantation. Eight-week survival was 77%. The BiLE score was the best predictor of death or need of transplantation, with 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity. ROC analysis revealed a better performance of BiLE score when compared with bilirubin, lactate, MELD score, and SAPS-III (area under the curve: 0.87 +/- 0.04, 0.73 +/- 0.51, 0.73 +/- 0.52, 0.71 +/- 0.05, and 0.68 +/- 0.59, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The simple, combined BiLE score emerged as the best predictor of poor outcome in our patient cohort and should be prospectively evaluated in other populations.

Non-isotopic tyrosine kinetics using an alanyl-tyrosine dipeptide to assess graft function in liver transplant recipients - a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Although accurate assessment of liver function in liver transplant recipients is of crucial importance for optimal timing of the procedure and for determining graft viability, none of the many available methods has proven reliable in the clinical routine. Thus, a novel non-isotopic assay of tyrosine kinetics using the tyrosine-containing dipeptide L-alanyl-L-tyrosine (Ala-Tyr) was tested for its clinical feasibility in patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT).

METHODS

Plasma levels of tyrosine and clearance of tyrosine released after infusion of the dipetide Ala-Tyr were assessed before and one day after OLT in 10 liver transplant recipients with normal graft function, also in three organ donors and in three recipients showing poor graft function. Standard laboratory parameters (e.g. aminotransferases) and the plasma disappearance rate of indocyanine green were also measured.

RESULTS

Following uneventful OLT, tyrosine plasma levels (before 127 +/- 15 micromol/vs. post-OLT 52 +/- 6 micromol/l, P < 0.05) and kinetics (tyrosine clearance: before 206 +/- 77 ml/min vs. post-OLT 371 +/- 109 ml/min, P < 0.05) were normalized. In cases of severe graft dysfunction, tyrosine kinetics (tyrosine clearance: 238 +/- 61 ml/min) resembled the situation in end-stage liver disease, whereas no such correlation was seen with conventional markers of liver function. Organ preservation had only a minor impact on tyrosine kinetics (n.s.).

CONCLUSION

OLT rapidly normalizes both the plasma levels and the kinetics of tyrosine. Graft failure is associated with an immediate rise in plasma tyrosine levels and a delay in tyrosine elimination. Our results show that tyrosine clearance using the dipetide Ala-Tyr is a suitable non-isotopic, non-invasive indicator of graft viability in the early postoperative course following OLT.

MELD score to predict outcome in adult patients with non-acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure

AIMS/BACKGROUND

A model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score >30 was proposed as an excellent predictor of mortality in patients with non-acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (ALF). We analyzed the prognostic value of MELD score in our patients with ALF who were prospectively registered in our database since 1990.

METHODS

Overall, 106 patients met the criteria of ALF. Excluding seven patients with acetaminophen etiology, 99 patients (42+/-15 years, 40M/59F) were studied.

RESULTS

Causes were cryptogenic (n=38), viral (n=29), drugs (n=20) and miscellaneous (n=12). Of these, 37% (n=37) survived with medical management alone (group I), 16% (n=16) died (group II) and 46% (n=46) underwent liver transplantation (group III). The strongest predictors of poor outcome were advanced encephalopathy, cryptogenic/drug-induced/hepatitis B etiology and a high MELD score. At the time of diagnosis, King's College Hospital criteria and MELD score >30 had similar high negative predictive value (92% and 91%, respectively) and low positive predictive value (52% and 56%, respectively). The predictive values improved only slightly during follow-up. The best cut-off point for MELD score to discriminate between survivors and nonsurvivors was >35, with a sensitivity and specificity of 86% and 75%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score, which mostly takes into consideration the degree of liver impairment, has a similar prognostic value as King's College Hospital criteria to predict outcome in adult patients with nonacetaminophen-induced ALF. Overall, all current scores miss accuracy and therefore there is a clear need for factors that can better predict the regeneration of the liver in this setting.

Arterial steroid injection therapy can inhibit the progression of severe acute hepatic failure toward fulminant liver failure

AIM: To utilize transcatheter arterial steroid injection therapy (TASIT) via the hepatic artery to reduce hepatic macrophage activity in patients with severe acute hepatic failure.

METHODS: Thirty-four patients with severe acute hepatic failure were admitted to our hospital between June 2002 to June 2006 providing for the possibility of liver transplantation (LT). Seventeen patients were treated using traditional liver supportive procedures, and the other 17 patients additionally underwent TASIT with 1000 mg methylprednisolone per day for 3 continuous days.

RESULTS: Of the 17 patients who received TASIT, 13 were cured without any complications, 2 died, and 2 underwent LT. Of the 17 patients who did not receive TASIT, 4 were self-limiting, 7 died, and 6 underwent LT. Univariate logistic analysis revealed that ascites, serum albumin, prothrombin time, platelet count, and TASIT were significant variables for predicating the prognosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis using stepwise variable selection showed that prothrombin time, platelet count, and TASIT were independent predictive factors.

CONCLUSION: TASIT might effectively prevent the progression of severe acute hepatic failure to a fatal stage of fulminant liver failure.

Mild hypothermia protects obese rats from fulminant hepatic necrosis induced by ischemia-reperfusion

BACKGROUND

Obese Zucker rats demonstrate increased susceptibility to hepatic ischemia-reperfusion injury. This study evaluates the effect of mild systemic hypothermia on ischemia-induced acute fulminant necrosis during warm ischemia and reperfusion, and investigates blood metabolic profiles under normothermic and mildly hypothermic conditions.

METHODS

The left and median hepatic lobes of male, obese, Zucker rats were exposed to 75 minutes of ischemia under either normothermic (36.9 +/- 0.3 degrees C) or mildly hypothermic (33.3 +/- 0.1 degrees C) conditions followed by 8 hours of reperfusion. Animals were killed and tissue and blood were harvested for analysis of histology, liver enzymes, and metabolic 1H-NMR spectroscopy.

RESULTS

Liver enzyme activities were significantly higher in the normothermic group when compared with mildly hypothermic animals. Histologic analysis showed greater than 75% necrosis in the normothermic group, whereas in the mildly hypothermic group necrosis was less than 25%. Blood from normothermic animals contained greater concentrations of lactate (190%, P = .001) and lower concentrations of glucose (60%, P = .01) than hypothermic animals; hepatic osmolyte betaine was also increased in blood from the normothermic group (220%, P = .0002). In addition, normothermic rats had increased concentrations of circulating fatty acids, triglycerides, glutamate, succinate, and acetate when compared with the hypothermic.

CONCLUSION

Mild hypothermia decreased hepatic necrosis in obese rats. NMR blood profiles indicate that hypothermia protects hepatic metabolism.

A biochemical prognostic model of outcome in paracetamol-induced acute liver injury

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model of outcome for patients with paracetamol induced acute liver injury based on admission parameters

METHODS

We used a cohort of 97 patients admitted to the Scottish Liver Transplant Unit between 1997 and 1998 to identify biochemical prognostic markers of outcome and thus create a prognostic model. Blood samples were taken on admission for analysis. The model was subsequently validated by testing it on a second cohort of 86 patients admitted between 1999 and 2000.

RESULTS

The following were identified as independent variables of poor prognosis (death/ transplant); phenylalanine, pyruvate, alanine, acetate, calcium, haemoglobin and lactate. A prognostic model was then constructed by stepwise forward logistic regression analysis: (400xPyruvate mmols/L)+(50xPhenylalanine (mmols/L)-(4 x Hemoglobin (g/dL). A value of <16 had an accuracy of 93% in predicting death correctly. When applied to the validation cohort this model had a positive predictive value of 91%, a negative predictive value of 94%, a sensitivity of 91%, and a specificity of 94%. On the same population overall, the positive and negative predictive value of the King's criteria were 94% and 93% respectively, whereas their sensitivity and specificity were 88% and 96% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using admission characteristics our model is able to identify patients who die from paracetamol overdose fulminant hepatic failure as accurately as King's College criteria, but at a much earlier stage in their condition.

Selection for acute liver failure: have we got it right?

1. The interplay of four factors determines the outcome in Acute Liver Failure (ALF). Current criteria used for prognosis address each of these factors. a. Hepatic regeneration: Age, poor prognostic etiologies (drug, idiopathic ALF), b. Hepatocellular failure: INR, Bilirubin, c. Encephalopathy and brain edema: Stage III/IV, hyperacute vs acute/subacute, d. Multiorgan failure (MOF): pH. 2. In hyperacute liver failure, exemplified by acetaminophen-induced injury, prognostic criteria have focused on the course of encephalopathy and of multiorgan failure. In non-acetaminophen induced ALF, prognostic criteria reflect a greater role of hepatic regeneration in outcome. 3. Prognostic indices combine features of these four factors. The Kings College criteria (KCC) have been shown to have a better performance than the Clichy criteria. The KCC appear to have a higher specificity than sensitivity for acetaminophen-induced ALF, while its negative predictive value for non-acetaminophen induced ALF is unfortunately low. 4. Newer prognostic markers have been proposed, including serum phosphate and alpha fetoprotein as markers of regeneration and blood lactate, a reflection of MOF and hepatocellular failure. They are likely to complement the KCC rather than replace them. 5. Clinical judgement is still needed to weigh management options in this disease.

Blood lactate but not serum phosphate levels can predict patient outcome in fulminant hepatic failure

Early identification of those patients with fulminant hepatic liver failure (FHF) who need a transplant greatly helps in their management. A number of prognostic criteria have recently been proposed, including arterial blood lactate and serum phosphate concentrations. To validate their use, we retrospectively studied 83 consecutive patients with FHF admitted to our intensive treatment unit between August 2000 and March 2003. A total of 48 patients (58%) survived with medical management only (group I) and 35 patients (42%) failed to survive spontaneously (group II). This group included 19 patients (23%) who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation (LT), and 16 patients (19%) who died without undergoing LT (group IIa). A total of 5 patients (6%) who underwent liver transplantation died. Within paracetamol overdose (POD) and non-POD subgroups, phosphate concentrations were not significantly higher in group II patients (P = 0.08 and P = 0.27, respectively), when compared to group I patients. In multivariate analysis, post admission 12-hour lactate level was the only predictor of survival for the POD subgroup, whereas in non-POD patients, 12-hour lactate and admission bilirubin levels were significant in predicting patients' outcome. In conclusion, we found that while serum phosphate concentrations have limited clinical utility as prognostic markers, persistently elevated arterial blood lactate levels despite adequate fluid resuscitation are indicators of a poor prognosis in FHF.