Analysis of the Complex Effect of Donor’s Age on Survival of Subjects Who Underwent Heart Transplantation

Heart Transplantation With Older Donors: Should There Be an Age Cutoff?

PURPOSE

Heart transplantation remains limited by donor availability. Currently, only some programs accept older donors, and their use remains contentious. We compared outcomes of heart transplant recipients who received donor hearts ≥55 years with those who received donor hearts <55 years.

METHODS

Records of first-time adult heart transplant recipients between 2010 and 2019 were reviewed. Endpoints included 30-day and 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival; freedom from cardiac allograft vasculopathy; freedom from nonfatal major adverse cardiac events; and freedom from any rejections. The effect of donor age ≥55 years was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards modeling, 1:2 propensity score matching, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

Sixty-six patients received donor hearts ≥55 years and 766 received donor hearts <55 years. In the unmatched cohort, there was no significant difference in survival between the 2 groups at 30 days (93.9% vs 97.3%, P = .127), 1 year (87.9% vs 91.6%, P = .325), 3 years (86.4% vs 86.5%, P = .888), or 5 years (78.8% vs 83.8%, P = .497). The ≥55 years group had a significantly lower freedom from cardiac allograft vasculopathy and fatal major adverse cardiac events. In propensity-matched patients, recipients of donors ≥55 years had similar survival and freedom from cardiac allograft vasculopathy but significantly lower 1-year (76.7% vs 88.3%, P = .026), 3-year (68.3% vs 84.2%, P = .010), and 5-year (63.3% vs 83.3%, P = .002) freedom from nonfatal major adverse cardiac events when compared to recipients of younger donors.

CONCLUSIONS

Carefully selected older donors can be considered for a carefully selected group of recipients with acceptable outcomes.

Predictors of 1-year mortality in heart transplant recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

A systematic summary of the observational studies informing heart transplant guideline recommendations for selection of candidates and donors has thus far been unavailable. We performed a meta-analysis to better understand the impact of such known risk factors.

Methods

We systematically searched and meta-analysed the association between known pretransplant factor and 1-year mortality identified by multivariable regression models. Our review used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation for assessing the quality of assessment. We pooled risk estimates by using random effects models.

Results

Recipient variables including age (HR 1.16 per 10-year increase, 95% CI 1.10–1.22, high quality), congenital aetiology (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.62 to 3.41, moderate quality), diabetes (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.62, high quality), creatinine (HR 1.11 per 1 mg/dL increase, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.16, high quality), mechanical ventilation (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.48 to 4.09, low quality) and short-term mechanical circulatory support (MCS) (HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.04 to 5.87, low quality) were significantly associated with 1-year mortality. Donor age (HR 1.20 per 10-year increase, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.26, high quality) and female donor to male recipient sex mismatch (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.80, high quality) were significantly associated with 1-year mortality. None of the operative factors proved significant predictors.

Conclusion

High-quality and moderate-quality evidence demonstrates that recipient age, congenital aetiology, creatinine, pulsatile MCS, donor age and female donor to male recipient sex mismatch are associated with 1-year mortality post heart transplant. The results of this study should inform future guideline and predictive model development.

The International Heart Transplant Survival Algorithm (IHTSA): a new model to improve organ sharing and survival

Background

Heart transplantation is life saving for patients with end-stage heart disease. However, a number of factors influence how well recipients and donor organs tolerate this procedure. The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a flexible risk model for prediction of survival after heart transplantation using the largest transplant registry in the world.

Methods and Findings

We developed a flexible, non-linear artificial neural networks model (IHTSA) and classification and regression tree to comprehensively evaluate the impact of recipient-donor variables on survival over time. We analyzed 56,625 heart-transplanted adult patients, corresponding to 294,719 patient-years. We compared the discrimination power with three existing scoring models, donor risk index (DRI), risk-stratification score (RSS) and index for mortality prediction after cardiac transplantation (IMPACT). The accuracy of the model was excellent (C-index 0.600 [95% CI: 0.595–0.604]) with predicted versus actual 1-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rates of 83.7% versus 82.6%, 71.4% – 70.8%, and 54.8% – 54.3% in the derivation cohort; 83.7% versus 82.8%, 71.5% – 71.1%, and 54.9% – 53.8% in the internal validation cohort; and 84.5% versus 84.4%, 72.9% – 75.6%, and 57.5% – 57.5% in the external validation cohort. The IHTSA model showed superior or similar discrimination in all of the cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve to predict one-year mortality was for the IHTSA: 0.650 (95% CI: 0.640–0.655), DRI 0.56 (95% CI: 0.56–0.57), RSS 0.61 (95% CI: 0.60–0.61), and IMPACT 0.61 (0.61–0.62), respectively. The decision-tree showed that recipients matched to a donor younger than 38 years had additional expected median survival time of 2.8 years. Furthermore, the number of suitable donors could be increased by up to 22%.

Conclusions

We show that the IHTSA model can be used to predict both short-term and long-term mortality with high accuracy globally. The model also estimates the expected benefit to the individual patient.

Lung transplantation with lungs from older donors: recipient and surgical factors affect outcomes

BACKGROUND

A shortage of donors has compelled the use of extended-criteria donor organs in lung transplantation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of using older donors on outcomes after lung transplantation using current protocols.

METHODS

From January 2003 to August 2009, 593 lung transplants were performed at our institution. We compared 87 patients (14.7%) who received lungs from donors aged 55 years or older with 506 patients who received lungs from donors less than 55 years old. We also examined risk factors for mortality in recipients of lungs from older donors.

RESULTS

The incidence of major complications including severe primary graft dysfunction and early mortality rates were similar between the groups. However, posttransplant peak FEV1 was lower in the patients who received lungs from older donors (71.7% vs. 80.7%, P<0.05). In multivariate analysis, recipient pulmonary hypertension (transpulmonary pressure gradient >20 mm Hg) and prolonged intraoperative cardiopulmonary bypass were significant risk factors for mortality in the recipients of lungs from older donors.

CONCLUSIONS

This large, single-center experience demonstrated that transplanting lungs from donors older than 55 years did not yield worse short- or long-term outcomes as compared with transplanting lungs from younger donors. However, transplanting lungs from older donors into recipients with pulmonary hypertension or recipients who required prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass increased the risk for mortality. Although lungs from older donors should not be excluded because of donor age alone, surgeons should carefully consider their patient selection criteria and surgical plans when transplanting lungs from older donors.